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1.
本文在城市边界层预报模式中耦合了一个单层冠层模式,此模式能够体现城市冠层结构和人为热源对城市热岛的共同作用.通过传统平板模式和城市冠层模式的模拟结果与自动气象站观测资料对比发现,耦合了城市冠层模式的模拟结果与观测资料更为吻合,尤其能够较好地模拟出城市地区夜间地面的气温变化情况.对北京城市区域的模拟结果进行分析,白家庄地区冠层建筑物使得城市地区气温白天下降,夜晚上升,不考虑人为热源作用时,城市冠层使得白家庄站地面气温白天最低下降2.5℃,夜间气温最大升高为4.7℃.针对模拟区域较小的理想算例模拟结果分析表明,城市冠层模式能够很好地模拟城市地区地表能量平衡关系,体现城市冠层对长短波辐射的封截以及热量存储能力,全天平均净辐射通量由传统模式的43.38 W/m2变为84.19 W/m2,热存储通量白天最大值为278.04 W/m2,夜晚最大释放热存储通量为160.35 W/m2.冠层建筑物和人为热源对夜间城市热岛强度的贡献分别为70.65％和29.35％.城市冠层建筑物对夜间城市热岛的形成起决定性作用. 相似文献
2.
We consider a three-dimensional assimilation model of the ionosphere. We discuss the governing equations of the physical model and the data assimilation technique. We provide examples of the model results: plots of the calculated ionospheric parameters, such as the density and temperature of electrons and ions. We compare the model results with independent sources of data on the state of the ionosphere. We make some conclusions regarding the model accuracy and possible areas of its practical application. 相似文献
3.
Earthquake precursors used for earthquake prediction in the M8 algorithm [Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov, 1990a] are adapted to the sandpile grid model close to the Manna [1991] model. It is established that the adapted precursors are efficient for predicting the largest model earthquakes. However, as distinct from real seismicity, where activity outbursts often precede a large earthquake, the prediction of the model dynamics, is characterized by a certain quiescence. 相似文献
4.
主震和余震--从大森公式到ETAS模型 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
介绍了从描述余震发生频次的大森公式到ＥＴＡＳ模型的发展过程;给出了ＥＴＡＳ模型的主要理论,主要内容包括条件强度函数、参数估计和模型选择;讨论了ＥＴＡＳ模型在地震活动性研究中的应用情况,尤其是在前兆平静和前震研究中的应用,并对该模型的优缺点进行了评价。 相似文献
5.
A complementary relationship evaporation model has been proposed and verified based on evaluations of the advection–aridity model and the Granger's complementary relationship model (Granger model) in dimensionless forms. Normalized by Penman potential evaporation, the Granger model and the advection–aridity model have been transformed into similar dimensionless forms. Evaporation ratio (ratio of actual evaporation to Penman potential evaporation) has been expressed as a function of dimensionless variable based on radiation and atmospheric conditions. Similar dimensionless variables for the different functions have been used in the two models. By referring to the dimensionless variable from the advection–aridity model and the function from the Granger model, a new model to estimate actual evaporation was proposed. The performance of the new model has been validated by the observed data from four sites under different land covers. The new model is an enhanced Granger model with better evaporation prediction over the aforementioned different land covers. It also offers more stable optimized parameters in a grassland site than the Granger model. The new model somewhat approximates the advection–aridity model under neither too wet nor too dry conditions, but without its system bias. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
7.
利用福建爆破实验记录检验华南速度模型 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
基于2010~2012年"福建及台湾海峡地壳深部结构陆海联合探测"项目中18次爆破实验的准确发震时间、发震位置所确定的多震相走时数据,进行爆破震相特征分析,采用华南速度模型对单纯型、Hyposat、Hypo2000及Locsat等4种定位方法进行比较,得出最优定位方法。利用14炮爆破记录反演得到的速度模型与华南速度模型作比较,结果表明,反演模型的上地壳厚度小于华南模型的,下地壳厚度大于华南模型的,上地壳速度与华南模型的相当,下地壳速度大于华南模型的。利用本研究的反演结果对其他4次爆破进行重新定位,定位精度明显提高。 相似文献
8.
The objective of this study was to calibrate the Everglades Wetland Hydrodynamic Model (EWHM) to the Everglades Nutrient Removal (ENR) Project, from April 1995 through July of 1996. Model predictions were evaluated graphically and statistically against field observations to quantify the accuracy of model predictions and evaluate the success of model calibration. Comparisons between model predictions and field observations of water surface elevations at interior stations indicated that the model was successfully calibrated and model predictions were highly correlated with observed water surface elevations (r2 ranged from 0.79 to 0.84). Model-predicted chloride (Cl) concentrations fell within the observed range of field observations, further confirming the success of model calibration. Good agreement found in these comparisons between observed and predicted results warrants the use of the model in a predictive mode. This is further supported by noting that the model contains no adjustable constants and requires no computational fitting of parameters to experimental data as is necessary in many previous obstructed flow studies. 相似文献
9.
The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of modified methods, developed on the basis of NRCS-CN method, in determining the size of an effective rainfall (direct runoff). The analyses were performed for the mountain catchment of the Kamienica river, right-hand tributary of the Dunajec. The amount of direct runoff was calculated using the following methods: (1) Original NRCS-CN model, (2) Mishra—Singh model (MS model), (3) Sahu Mishra Eldho model (SME model), (4) Sahu 1-p model, (5) Sahu 3-p model, and (6) Q_base model. The study results indicated that the amount of direct runoff, determined on the basis of the original NRCS-CN method, may differ significantly from the actually observed values. The best results were achieved when the direct runoff was determined using the SME and Sahu 3-p model. 相似文献
10.
C. Hsein Juang Susan Hui Yang Haiming Yuan Eng Hui Khor 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2004,24(9-10):771
As the profession moves toward the performance-based earthquake engineering design, it becomes more important and pressing to examine the uncertainty of the limit state model used for liquefaction potential evaluation. In this paper, the uncertainty of the Robertson and Wride model, a simplified model for liquefaction resistance and potential evaluation based on cone penetration test, is investigated in detail for its model uncertainty in the framework of first-order reliability analysis. The uncertainties of the parameters used in the Robertson and Wride model are also examined. The model uncertainty is estimated by calibration with a fairly large set of case histories. The results show that the uncertainty of the Robertson and Wride model may be characterized with a mean-to-nominal of 0.94 and a coefficient of variation of 0.15 based on the case histories examined. 相似文献
11.
This study examines the circulation and associated monthly-to-seasonal variability in the Caribbean Sea using a regional ocean
circulation model. The model domain covers the region between 99.0 and 54.0°W and between 8.0 and 30.3°N, with a horizontal
resolution of 1/6°. The ocean circulation model is driven by 6-hourly atmospheric reanalysis data from the National Center
for Environmental Prediction and boundary forcing extracted from 5-day global ocean reanalysis data produced by Smith et al.
(Mercator Newsletter 36:39–49, 2010), and integrated for 7 years. A comparison of model results with observations demonstrates that the regional ocean circulation
model has skill in simulating circulation and associated variability in the study region. Analysis of the model results, as
well as a companion model run that uses steady annual mean forcing, illustrates the role of Caribbean eddies for driving monthly-to-seasonal
circulation variability in the model. It is found that vertically integrated transport between Nicaragua and Jamaica is influenced
by the interaction between the density perturbations associated with Caribbean eddies and the Nicaraguan Ridge. The impact
of Caribbean eddies squeezing through the Yucatan Channel is also discussed. 相似文献
12.
On the physics of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a pronounced signal of climate variability in the North Atlantic sea-surface temperature field. In this paper, we propose an explanation of the physical processes responsible for the timescale and the spatial pattern of the AMO. Our approach involves the analysis of solutions of a hierarchy of models. In the lowest member of the model hierarchy, which is an ocean-only model for flow in an idealized basin, the variability shows up as a multidecadal oscillatory mode which is able to destabilize the mean thermohaline circulation. In the highest member of the model hierarchy, which is the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory R30 climate model, multidecadal variability is found as a dominant statistical mode of variability. The connection between both results is established by tracing the spatial and temporal expression of the multidecadal mode through the model hierarchy while monitoring changes in specific quantities (mechanistic indicators) associated with its physics. The proposed explanation of the properties of the AMO is eventually based on the changes in the spatial patterns of variability through the model hierarchy.Responsible Editor: Tal Ezer 相似文献
13.
A hydrodynamic model of the Venice Lagoon and the Adriatic Sea has been developed in order to study the exchanges at the inlets of the Venice Lagoon, a complex morphological area connecting the sea and the lagoon. The model solves the shallow water equations on a spatial domain discretized by a staggered finite element grid. The grid represents the Adriatic Sea and the Venice Lagoon with different spatial resolutions varying from 30 m for the smallest channels of the lagoon to 30 km for the inner areas of the central Adriatic Sea. Data from more than ten tide gauges displaced in the Adriatic Sea have been used in the calibration of the simulated water levels. After the calibration, the tidal wave propagation in the North Adriatic and in the Venice Lagoon is well reproduced by the model. To validate the model results, empirical flux data measured by acoustic Doppler current profiler probes installed inside the inlets of Lido and Malamocco have been used and the exchanges through the three inlets of the Venice Lagoon have been analyzed. The comparison between modeled and measured fluxes at the inlets outlines the efficiency of the model to reproduce both tide- and wind-induced water exchanges between the sea and the lagoon. Even in complex areas, where highly varying resolution is needed, the model is suitable for the simulation of the dominating physical processes. 相似文献
14.
磷灰石裂变径迹退火动力学模型研究进展综述 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4
裂变径迹退火过程是非线性动力学过程，在一系列磷灰石裂变径迹室内退火实验基础上，研究者提出许多经验退火模型，其中扇型模型与实验数据拟合最好，多组分退火模型将扇型模型的应用扩展到复杂物源成分的磷灰石，理论物理退火模型建立在原子尺度动力机制上，并经由实验数据确定具物理意义的未知参数，目前还不如经验模型成功，室内退火实验表明除了温度、受热时间，退火行为与磷灰石的化学成分，径迹与结晶c轴的方位关系、由Dpar定量表征的颗粒溶蚀度等因素有密切关系。 相似文献
15.
Energy loss in porous media containing fluids is typically caused by a variety of dynamic mechanisms.In the Biot theory,energy loss only includes the frictional dissipation between the solid phase and the fluid phase,resulting in underestimation of the dispersion and attenuation of the waves in the low frequency range.To develop a dynamic model that can predict the high dispersion and strong attenuation of waves at the seismic band,we introduce viscoelasticity into the Biot model and use fractional derivatives to describe the viscoelastic mechanism,and finally propose a new wave propagation model.Unlike the Biot model,the proposed model includes the intrinsic dissipation of the solid frame.We investigate the effects of the fractional order parameters on the dispersion and attenuation of the P-and S-waves using several numerical experiments.Furthermore,we use several groups of experimental data from different fluid-saturated rocks to testify the validity of the new model.The results demonstrate that the new model provides more accurate predictions of high dispersion and strong attenuation of different waves in the low frequency range. 相似文献
16.
S.I. Braginsky 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1976,11(3):191-199
A short review of the present state of the nearly axially-symmetrical dynamo model is given. A simplified theory for hydromagnetic dynamos taking into account the forces acting in the Earth's core is considered. The role of weak core-mantle friction is discussed and a form of solution is suggested which is characterized by a large geostrophic velocity in the core and by a boundary layer of a new type. The consequences of such a model (called model Z) for the Earth's dynamo are discussed. 相似文献
17.
以流星烧蚀为源,大气沉降为汇,并利用连续方程和涡旋扩散方程为动力学控制方程,求解总含钾成分随高度的分布,再根据各含钾成分之间闭合的化学反应,计算每个高度处各含钾成分的浓度配比,初步建立了一个钾层静态模型.本文详细的阐述了钾层静态模型的建立过程,输入参数和模拟结果.此模型能够模拟出钾原子浓度随高度的分布,并与北京激光雷达观测的钾原子浓度的夜间年平均曲线进行了对比.钾层峰值密度和质心高度的模拟值与观测值仅相差0.2%和0.7%,但柱密度和RMS宽度的模拟值却比观测值明显偏小.模拟结果与观测并不完全一致,其差别主要来自于钾层的下部.钾层静态模型的建立和不断完善为研究钾层的特性和演化规律提供了有力的支撑. 相似文献
18.
Hana Karousová Jaroslava Plomerová Vladislav Babu?ka 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2012,56(1):249-267
We have compiled a representative three-dimensional P-velocity model of the crust of the Bohemian Massif (BM) to provide a
basis for removing effects of the crustal structure in teleseismic tomography of the upper mantle. The model is primarily
based on recently published 2D velocity models from findings of wide-angle refraction and near-vertical reflection seismic
profiles of CELEBRATION 2000, ALP 2002, and SUDETES 2003 experiments. The best fitting 3D model of the BM crust (NearNeighbour
model) is complemented by velocities according to the reference Earth model at sites where data are sparse, which precludes
creating artificial heterogeneities that are products of interpolation method. To test the model, we have performed tomographic
inversions of the P-wave travel times measured during the BOHEMA II experiment and compared the results obtained with and
without crustal corrections. The tests showed that the presented crustal model decreases magnitudes of velocity perturbations
leaking from the crust to the mantle in the western part of the BM. The tomographic images also indicated a highvelocity anomaly
in the lower crust or just beneath the crust in the Brunovistullian unit. Such anomaly is not described by our model of the
crust since no seismic profile intersects this part of the unit. The tests also indicated that crustal corrections are of
the great importance especially for interpretations of the uppermost mantle down to depths of about 100 km. 相似文献
19.
AbstractThe sediment yield model of the MUSLE (modified universal soil loss equation) is applied extensively throughout the world, but different performances have been reported of its success relative to measured data. A review of all the available literature is presented to assess the application of the model under different conditions and, ultimately, make a comprehensive judgement on the different aspects to allow readers to adjust their further research. A review of 49 papers showed the variable accuracy of the model, which depends on the manner of calculation and determination of the input and output, and the study time and space scales. There were differences in land use, in correspondence of the physiographic characteristics with those of the original conditions of model development, and even in the experience of researchers in applying the model. The results also show the need to consider the original application of the model, as proposed by its developers, to achieve comparable results.Editor Z.W. KundzewiczCitation Sadeghi, S.H.R., et al., 2014. A review of the application of the MUSLE model worldwide. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 365–375. 相似文献
20.
Son Nguyen 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(11):1351-1369
ABSTRACTEvent-based models are often used for flood prediction because they require fewer data than more complex models and account for a small number of parameters. We present the performance of such a model in simulating Mediterranean floods, with a focus on the initialization and on the impact of the rainfall uncertainties on the calibration of the model. The distributed event-based parsimonious Soil Conservation Service Lag-and-Route (SCS-LR) model was applied in the Real Collobrier catchment, France, which has a very high density of raingauges. The initial condition of the model was highly correlated with predictors, such as baseflow or soil water content. A reduction in the raingauge density can markedly change the calibration of the model. As the density of raingauges is generally low in most catchments, the uncertainties associated with rainfall measurement are thus expected either to mask the actual accuracy of the model, or to alter the model parameters. 相似文献