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基于水热平衡模型的青海湖水位变化趋势预测 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
近几十年来,随着气候干暖化,以青海湖为代表的我国内陆湖泊水位持续下降,生态环境问题日益突出,备受世人关注.运用改进的水热平衡模型预测了2050年以前青海湖逐年的湖面蒸发量,并运用多元线性回归的方法估算出流域未来径流量的变化,最终通过水量平衡的方式对2050年以前青海湖水位的变化趋势进行了定量预测.预测表明未来几十年内,青海湖水位会经历先相对稳定再继续下降的过程,2020年以前青海湖水位会相对稳定在3192.7m,之后会继续下降,到2050年约下降到3191.22m,总体上2010-2050年青海湖水位下降趋势将有所缓和. 相似文献
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晚第四纪青海湖演化研究析视与讨论 总被引：41，自引：4，他引：37
本文根据钻孔及湖周湖泊沉积露头的分析,重建了晚第四纪以来青海湖湖面波动的历史,并结合近年有关青海湖演变的文献,评述和讨论了造成青海湖高湖面和低湖面的原因,最后预测了青海湖近代萎缩的未来趋势。 相似文献
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在充分收集有关资料的基础上研究青海湖1959-2000年间降水径流蒸发湖泊水位地下水补给量的动态变化建立水量平衡分析方程.青海湖水位在波动中持续下降42年来年平均水位累计下降了 3.32 m平均每年下降了0.079 m近年来下降的幅度减小. 同时青海湖储水量不断减少而湖区降水呈增加的趋势河川径流量地下水的入湖补给量 蒸发量呈现下降的趋势. 根据青海湖水平衡分析计算结果预测2010年青海湖流域耗水量将达1.27108m3为维护生态平衡和社会经济持续发展需要跨流域调水量引大济湖4.1108m3. 相似文献
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作为我国最大的内陆咸水湖,青海湖是青藏高原东北部重要水汽源,在维持区域生态环境及半干旱生态系统功能方面发挥着重要作用.近年来,青海湖水位迅速上升,但是湖泊扩张对周边人居设施与草地的影响尚未得到广泛关注和报道.基于1995-2019年Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI遥感影像、Hydroweb多源测高同化水位数据、SRTM-1 DEM数据等,本研究以青海湖近年来增长速率情景开展湖泊快速扩张对周边人居设施(道路、居民点)与草地影响和潜在威胁的定量研究.结果表明:1995-2004年期间青海湖处于萎缩态势,2004年水位和面积出现最小值,之后,青海湖进入稳定扩张期.2004-2019年期间,青海湖水位累计上涨3.27 m,年均增长率约为0.22 m/a;相应地,青海湖水量增长了14.25 km3,年均增长率为0.95 km3/a.湖泊扩张模拟结果显示,若青海湖水量以当前速率增长,水位将在2070年前后达到3207 m(相对2019年约10 m的水位涨幅),届时将会淹没178个居民点、长度约为1286.91 km的道路以及2042.22 km2的植被,其中预测的高风险区域主要为切吉乡、泉吉乡和金滩乡.该研究有望为青海湖快速扩张对当地居民的影响和潜在威胁提供重要的科学参考,并在气候变化背景下为制定缓解气候变化风险的预案提供科学依据. 相似文献
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《国际地震动态》2017,(2)
要研究地震预测的可能性,客观评估预测结果必不可少。鲜少发生的大地震和小地震的发生概率大相径庭,预测成功时的评估也大不相同。地震活动程度中的地域差也与评估相关。首先,需要确立适合各地域的基于以往经验的地震活动的基准预测。作为评估概率预测成绩的手段,信息增益比较合理。当新的预测模型被提出时,对比基准模型的预测,即可评估预测能力是否提高及其提高的程度。赤池信息量准则AIC及ABIC是仅仅使用现有的数据预先对提议模型将来预测准确度进行推测并给出评估分数是有用的。由于预测的演算方法和经验尚处于发展完善过程中,有时难以给出概率的数值预测。因此,大多数都属于警告型预测(二值预测)。本文将进一步就评估警告型地震预测的图示法和赌局计分法进行说明。为此,仍然必须设定地震的大小程度和活动度的基准概率(行情)的经验值。也就是在基于行情的公平的赌局中,比较警告型预测的成功或失败结果的得失分数的评估方法。作为经验基准概率,将古登堡-里克特关系(指数分布)当作地震大小的出现频度。时间和空间一样的地震发生模型(平稳泊松过程)可以考虑。然而,更为现实地将相应地震活动性空间不一致的泊松过程和地震的连锁过程等设定为基准模型,则现今的警告型预测要得到比基准预测更好的评估结果将变得更难。 相似文献
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近20年青海湖湖水面积变化遥感 总被引：11，自引：6，他引：5
采用NOAA/AVHRR资料,对青海湖湖面进行水体判识,并利用线性混合模式对混合象元进行处理,定量估算了近20年青海湖湖水面积并分析了变化趋势,表明近20年青海湖湖水面积在不断减小,每年减少约4km2,并且青海湖干涸部分主要在其北部.进一步采用主成分分析和回归分析方法对青海湖地区降水、气温和蒸发量做了初步气候分析,表明青海湖地区降水减少、气温升高、蒸发量增加是青海湖湖水面积逐年减少的主要原因. 相似文献
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EY60回声探测仪在青海湖鱼类资源量评估中的应用 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
2006年8月16-18日通过使用回声探测仪(Simrad公司EY60型,200kHz换能器)对青海湖的鱼类资源进行了探测评估.结果表明:青海湖裸鲤(Gymnocypris przewalski)水平分布具不均匀性,有小型鱼群聚集现象;在不同的设定分区,鱼类密度在0.168-12.8ind./1000m~3之间,均值为1.16 ind./1000m~3;布哈河口鱼类较为密集,密度最大值为12.8ind./1000m~3.初步估算青海湖裸鲤达可捕规格(体长大于20cm)个体数量为6.5×10~7ind.,95%置信度区间为35.6×10~7-118.4×10~7ind.,应用资源密度体积法估算青海湖裸鲤的可捕资源量约为1 5275t.探测实验还证实,EY60回声探测仪在青海湖中进行鱼类资源评估时探测效果良好,分析软件Sonar5可以对鱼类个体自动识别、计数,便于进行鱼类资源量评估. 相似文献
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青海湖是我国环境研究中的一个热点地区,近年来137Cs计年技术已在这一地区得到广泛的应用.已报道的青海湖沉积物中137Cs垂直分布曲线显示,剖面最表层0-1 cm泥沙的137Cs浓度约60 Bq/kg,大致为峰值浓度的2/3,远超过近年来大气沉降137Cs所应带来的沉积水平为查明青海湖表层底泥中放射性同位素137Cs的来源,深入理解湖泊沉积过程,本文对青海湖沉积剖面的137Cs面积活度与137Cs本底值、湖泊表层底泥的137Cs浓度与入湖河流洪水沉积泥沙开展了比对研究.结果表明核爆期间的大气直接沉降是青海湖东南湖湾表层沉积物中的137Cs主要来源,约占4/5,风沙和入湖径流河沙的间接输入的137Cs仅占1/5而最表层0-1 cm的沉积物中137Cs很可能主要来源于底泥扰动,在这样的情况下,利用沉积岩芯开展青海湖环境研究时,分辨率的选取需要慎重考虑这一因素. 相似文献
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《国际泥沙研究》2014,(4)
正Director:Shangfu Kuang,China Vice-directors:Chunhong Hu,China Duihu Ning,China Guangquan Liu,China The International Research and Training Center on Erosion and Sedimentation(IRTCES)was jointly set up by the Government of China and UNESCO on July 21,1984.It aims at the promotion of international exchange of knowledge and cooperation in the studies of erosion and 相似文献
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《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2014,(3)
正SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences,an academic journal cosponsored by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Natural Science Foundation of China,and published by Science China Press and Springer,is committed to publishing high-quality,original results in both basic and applied research. 相似文献
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Richard D. Hey 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1979,4(1):59-72
Feedback mechanisms, which operate upstream through drawdown and backwater effects and downstream through sediment discharge are responsible for channel evolution. By combining these mechanisms with channel processes it euables a dynamic process-response model to be developed to simulate the initial evolution of straight gravel-bed channels. When erosion commences on a land surface, sediment entrained in the headwater reach by hydraulic action is selectively transported, deposited and reworked. This produces a damped oscillation between degradation and aggradation as the channel and valley respond to spatial and temporal variations in sediment calibre and hydraulic conditions. The initial cut and fill phases are responsible for valley incision and floodplain development while secondary and subsequent activity can produce river terraces. Eventually sediment entrainment in the headwaters declines as slopes are reduced. Subsequent channel evolution is relatively insignificant because it is dependent on local weathering activity producing material that can be transported on declining slopes. Therefore landforms produced during the initial phase of development, when local weathering was non-limiting, dominate the landscape. 相似文献
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Based on relocating the Jiujiang-Ruichang earthquake sequence which occurred on November 26, 2005 in Jiangxi Province with the double-difference （DD） algorithm and master event technique, the paper discusses the focal mechanism of the main shock （MsS.7） and the probable seismo-tectonics. The precise relocation results indicate that the average horizontal error is 0.31kin in a EW direction and 0.40kin in a NS direction, and the average depth error is 0.48kin. The focal depths vary from 8kin to 14kin, with the predominant distribution at 10kin - 12kin. The epicenter of the main shock is relocated to be 29.69^oN, 115.74^oE and the focal depth is about 10.Skin. Combining the predominant distribution of the earthquake sequence, the focal mechanism of the main shock and the tectonic conditions of N-E- and NW-strike faults growth in the seismic region, we infer that the main shock of the earthquake sequence was caused by a NW striking buried fault in the Rnichang basin. The nature of seismic faults needs to be further explored. 相似文献
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《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6)
Abstract The western reservoirs represent the principal groundwater system in Morocco. Demographic, industrial and agricultural developments during the last decade have markedly altered groundwater quality. The Mamora coastal aquifer system is among the Atlantic systems which are most heavily threatened by pollution. Agricultural and industrial activities, and rapid urban growth contribute to the pollution of the groundwater. Contamination transport is facilitated by a high permeability of the aquifer formations. In order to assess the actual groundwater quality of the Mamora aquifer and to understand the influence of the factors generating the pollution, an extensive multidisciplinary research programme is in progress, with hydrochemistry and microbiology playing essential roles. The present paper concerns the spatial distribution of physico-chemical parameters in the groundwater, subjected to domestic, industrial and agricultural pollution. Fifty-seven samples were analysed for several parameters (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, Cl?, SO4 2?, HCO3 ?, NO3 ?, pH, electrical conductivity and temperature). The microbiological analysis of 143 samples reveals the presence of four kinds of indicator bacteria in the groundwater resources: faecal Streptococci, faecal coliform, Escherichia coli and Clostridium. The physico-chemical results and bacteriological monitoring show that the nitrate and bacteria concentrations exceed the maximum admissible levels, notably around pumping stations in the sectors of Sidi Taibi, Sidi Ahmed Taleb and Aïn Sbaâ. Contamination is generated by uncontrolled anthropogenic activities and accentuated by the high intrinsic vulnerability of the aquifer system. Several parameters appeared to exceed admissibility standards. Measures are recommended to prevent groundwater pollution in the region. 相似文献
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K.-G. Malle 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》1992,20(4):196-204
Zinc in the Environment. In 1990 the world production of zinc ammounted to 7 Mio. metric tons. The main areas of application were: galvanization, alloys like brass and zinc metal. The content in the earth crust varies between 10–300 ppm zinc with a mean of 70 ppm. Uncontaminated surface waters contain less than 10 mg/m3 zinc. Apart from civilization air contains 1–10 ng zinc per m3. These background concentrations are exceeded by orders of magnitude in zinc deposit areas and where anthropogenic influences predominate. Accumulation can occur in sediments and sewage sludge. Molluscs and Algae also accumulate zinc. Zinc is essential for live. With normal food the zinc supply of man is just sufficient. Bioaccumulation of zinc towards man or chronic oversupply of man is not known. Zinc has no teratogenic or mutagenic effects, a suspicion on a carcinogenic effect proved wrong. In stockbreeding and plant cultivation a minimum supply of zinc is necessary. Plants are relatively less sensitive against higher soil contents of zinc. Considering the toxicological and ecotoxicological effects of zinc in the environment, the critical organismens are marine invertebratae like tubifex, daphnia, gammarus and algae. But normally only a minor part of the total zinc contest is biologically available, depending on salt content and pH of the waters. 相似文献