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1.
Strong-motion data from eight significant well-documented earthquakes in Iran have been simulated using a stochastic modeling technique for finite faults proposed by Beresnev and Atkinson [Bull Seismol Soc Am 87 (1997) 67–84; Seism Res Lett 69 (1998) 27–32]. The database consists of 61 three-component records from eight earthquakes of magnitude ranging from M 6.3 to M 7.4, recorded at hypocentral distances up to 200 km. The model predictions are in good agreement with available Iranian strong-motion data as evidenced by near-zero average of differences between logarithms of the observed and predicted values for all frequencies. The strength factor, sfact, a quantity that controls the high-frequency radiation from the source is determined, on an event-by-event basis, by fitting simulated to observed response spectra.  相似文献   

2.
Consistency of ground-motion predictions from the past four decades   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  
Due to the limited observational datasets available for the derivation of ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) there is always epistemic uncertainty in the estimated median ground motion. Because of the increasing quality and quantity of strong-motion datasets it would be expected that the epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction (related to lack of knowledge and data) is decreasing. In this study the predicted median ground motions from over 200 GMPEs for various scenarios are plotted against date of publication to examine whether the scatter in the predictions (a measure of epistemic uncertainty) is decreasing with time. It is found that there are still considerable differences in predicted ground motions from the various GMPEs and that the variation between estimates is not reducing although the ground motion estimated by averaging median predictions is roughly constant. For western North America predictions for moderate earthquakes have show a high level of consistency since the 1980s as do, but to a lesser extent, predictions for moderate earthquakes in Europe, the Mediterranean and the Middle East. A good match is observed between the predictions from GMPEs and the median ground motions based on observations from similar scenarios. Variations in median ground motion predictions for stable continental regions and subduction zones from different GMPEs are large, even for moderate earthquakes. The large scatter in predictions of the median ground motion shows that epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction is still large and that it is vital that this is accounted for in seismic hazard assessments.  相似文献   

3.
The objective of this paper is to present ground-motion prediction equations describing constant-ductility inelastic spectral ordinates and structural behaviour factors. These equations are intended for application within the framework of Eurocode 8. Most of the strong-motion data used in the present work is obtained from the ISESD (Internet Site for European Strong-motion Data) databank. Present analysis includes ground motion records from significant Icelandic earthquakes, which are augmented by records obtained from continental Europe and the Middle East. In all cases the selected ground motion records are generated during shallow earthquakes within a distance of 100 km from the recording station. The classification of site conditions in the present work is based on the Eurocode 8 definition.  相似文献   

4.
A recently compiled, comprehensive, and good-quality strong-motion database of the Iranian earthquakes has been used to develop local empirical equations for the prediction of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5%-damped pseudo-spectral accelerations (PSA) up to 4.0 s. The equations account for style of faulting and four site classes and use the horizontal distance from the surface projection of the rupture plane as a distance measure. The model predicts the geometric mean of horizontal components and the vertical-to-horizontal ratio. A total of 1551 free-field acceleration time histories recorded at distances of up to 200 km from 200 shallow earthquakes (depth < 30 km) with moment magnitudes ranging from Mw 4.0 to 7.3 are used to perform regression analysis using the random effects algorithm of Abrahamson and Youngs (Bull Seism Soc Am 82:505–510, 1992), which considers between-events as well as within-events errors. Due to the limited data used in the development of previous Iranian ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and strong trade-offs between different terms of GMPEs, it is likely that the previously determined models might have less precision on their coefficients in comparison to the current study. The richer database of the current study allows improving on prior works by considering additional variables that could not previously be adequately constrained. Here, a functional form used by Boore and Atkinson (Earthquake Spect 24:99–138, 2008) and Bindi et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 9:1899–1920, 2011) has been adopted that allows accounting for the saturation of ground motions at close distances. A regression has been also performed for the V/H in order to retrieve vertical components by scaling horizontal spectra. In order to take into account epistemic uncertainty, the new model can be used along with other appropriate GMPEs through a logic tree framework for seismic hazard assessment in Iran and Middle East region.  相似文献   

5.
Predictive models for estimating strong-motion duration in sites characterized by soft-soil profiles are presented in this paper. The models were developed using a strong-motion database that includes observations from subduction interface earthquakes that occurred from 1989 to 2020 and recorded in Mexico City, which is located at source-to-site distances up to 600 km. A linear mixed-effects regression model, which is a statistical fitting procedure that allows to consider the correlation structure of grouped data, was used to develop the predictive models. Relative significant duration was selected to measure strong-motion duration. This measure can be directly associated with the accumulation of energy of the ground movement. The proposed predictive models relate relative significant duration with moment magnitude, either hypocentral distance or closest distance to the rupture plane, and dominant period of the soil. Regression analyses were performed grouping the ground-motion data by both seismic event and site class. Model assumptions, such as homoscedasticity, normality, and linearity of effects, were verified from residual analyses. From the results, the expected value of the natural logarithm of relative significant duration was found to be ～1.2 times greater for an earthquake with a moment magnitude equal to 8.0 than for one of 6.0. An insightful discussion about the sources and character of the uncertainties detected in the proposed predictive models is also presented in this study. The predictive models proposed in this paper are of valuable application in seismic and structural engineering because they allow to circumscribe properly the dimension and randomness of strong-motion duration.  相似文献   

6.
An empirical spectral ground-motion model for Iran   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1  
A new ground-motion prediction equation for 5%-damped horizontal spectral acceleration applicable to Iran is presented. On the basis of analysis of variance (ANOVA), selected West-Eurasian records are added to an existing dataset of Iranian accelerometric data to yield a ground-motion prediction equation applicable at wider ranges of magnitude and distance. The advantages of using this model rather than those proposed previously for Iran are discussed by considering the distribution of residuals against the explanatory variables, magnitude and distance. The applicability of the proposed model, as well as those of several other models developed for shallow crustal environments, is also investigated by means of statistical tools. The results reveal the overall suitability of the new model as well as the validity of models developed using mainly Eurasian strong-motion records. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi: ) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   

7.
Earthquake hazard along the Peru–Chile subduction zone is amongst the highest in the world. The development of a database of subduction-zone strong-motion recordings is, therefore, of great importance for ground-motion prediction in this region. Accelerograms recorded by the different networks operators in Peru and Chile have been compiled and processed in a uniform manner, and information on the source parameters of the causative earthquakes, fault-plane geometries and local site conditions at the recording stations has been collected and reviewed to obtain high-quality metadata. The compiled database consists of 98 triaxial ground-motion recordings from 15 subduction-type events with moment magnitudes ranging from 6.3 to 8.4, recorded at 59 different sites in Peru and Chile, between 1966 and 2007. While the database presented in this study is not sufficient for the derivation of a new predictive equation for ground motions from subduction events in the Peru–Chile region, it significantly expands the global database of strong-motion data and associated metadata that can be used in the derivation of predictive equations for subduction environments. Additionally, the compiled database will allow the assessment of existing predictive models for subduction-type events in terms of their suitability for the Peru–Chile region, which directly influences seismic hazard assessment in this region.  相似文献   

8.
Arias Intensity (Arias, MIT Press, Cambridge MA, pp 438–483, 1970) is an important measure of the strength of a ground motion, as it is able to simultaneously reflect multiple characteristics of the motion in question. Recently, the effectiveness of Arias Intensity as a predictor of the likelihood of damage to short-period structures has been demonstrated, reinforcing the utility of Arias Intensity for use in both structural and geotechnical applications. In light of this utility, Arias Intensity has begun to be considered as a ground-motion measure suitable for use in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and earthquake loss estimation. It is therefore timely to develop predictive equations for this ground-motion measure. In this study, a suite of four predictive equations, each using a different functional form, is derived for the prediction of Arias Intensity from crustal earthquakes in New Zealand. The provision of a suite of models is included to allow for epistemic uncertainty to be considered within a PSHA framework. Coefficients are presented for four different horizontal-component definitions for each of the four models. The ground-motion dataset for which the equations are derived include records from New Zealand crustal earthquakes as well as near-field records from worldwide crustal earthquakes. The predictive equations may be used to estimate Arias Intensity for moment magnitudes between 5.1 and 7.5 and for distances (both rjb and rrup) up to 300 km.  相似文献   

9.
In this paper, empirical ground-motion models for the vertical and average horizontal components of peak ground-motion and acceleration response spectra from shallow crustal earthquakes are derived using near-source database. These attenuation relationships were derived using a worldwide dataset consisted of corrected and processed accelerograms of 678 strong-motion records recorded with 60 km of the rupture plane of earthquakes between Mw 5.2 and 7.9. Ground motion models are functions of earthquake mechanism, distance from source to site, local average shear wave velocity, nonlinear soil response, sediment depth, depth-to-top of the rupture, hanging wall effects and faulting mechanism.  相似文献   

10.
Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are essential tools in seismic hazard studies to estimate ground motions generated by potential seismic sources. Global GMPEs which are based on well-compiled global strong-motion databanks, have certain advantages over local GMPEs, including more sophisticated parameters in terms of distance, faulting style, and site classification but cannot guarantee the local/region-specific propagation characteristics of shear wave (e.g., geometric spreading behavior, quality factor) for different seismic regions at larger distances (beyond about 80 km). Here, strong-motion records of northern Iran have been used to estimate the propagation characteristics of shear wave and determine the region-specific adjustment parameters for three of the NGA-West2 GMPEs to be applicable in northern Iran. The dataset consists of 260 three-component records from 28 earthquakes, recorded at 139 stations, with moment magnitudes between 4.9 and 7.4, horizontal distance to the surface projection of the rupture (R JB) less than 200 km, and average shear-wave velocity over the top 30 m of the subsurface (V S30) between 155 and 1500 m/s. The paper also presents the ranking results for three of the NGA-West2 GMPEs against strong motions recorded in northern Iran, before and after adjustment for region-dependent attenuation characteristics. The ranking is based on the likelihood and log-likelihood methods (LH and LLH) proposed by Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 94: 2164–2185, 2004, Bull Seismol Soc Am 99, 3234–3247, 2009, respectively), the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (Nash and Sutcliffe, J Hydrol 10:282–290, 1970), and the EDR method of Kale and Akkar (Bull Seismol Soc Am 103:1069–1084, 2012). The best-fitting models over the whole frequency range are the ASK14 and BSSA14 models. Taking into account that the models’ performances were boosted after applying the adjustment factors, at least moderate regional variation of ground motions is highlighted. The regional adjustment based on the Iranian database reveals an upward trend (indicated as high Q factor) for the selected database. Further investigation to determine adjustment factors based on a much richer database of the Iranian strong-motion records is of utmost important for seismic hazard and risk analysis studies in northern Iran, containing major cities including the capital city of Tehran.  相似文献   

11.
Fourier-amplitude spectrum is one of the most important parameters describing earthquake ground motion, and it is widely used for strong ground motion prediction and seismic hazard estimation. The relationships between Fourier-acceleration spectra, earthquake magnitude and distance were analysed for different seismic regions (the Caucasus and Taiwan island) on the basis of ground motion recordings of small to moderate (3.5≤ML≤6.5) earthquakes. It has been found that the acceleration spectra of the most significant part of the records, starting from S-wave arrival, can be modelled accurately by the Brune's “ω-squared” point-source model. Parameters of the model are found to be region-dependent. Peak ground accelerations and response spectra for condition of rock sites were calculated using stochastic simulation technique and obtained models of source spectra. The modelled ground-motion parameters are compared with those predicted by recent empirical attenuation relationship for California.  相似文献   

12.
This brief article presents a quantitative analysis of the ability of eight published empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for subduction earthquakes (interface and intraslab) to estimate observed earthquake ground motions on the islands of the Lesser Antilles (specifically Guadeloupe, Martinique, Trinidad, and Dominica). In total, over 300 records from 22 earthquakes from various seismic networks are used within the analysis. It is found that most of the GMPEs tested perform poorly, which is mainly due to a larger variability in the observed ground motions than predicted by the GMPEs, although two recent GMPEs derived using Japanese strong-motion data provide reasonably good predictions. Analyzing separately the interface and intraslab events does not significant modify the results. Therefore, it is concluded that seismic hazard assessments for this region should use a variety of GMPEs in order to capture this large epistemic uncertainty in earthquake ground-motion prediction for the Lesser Antilles.  相似文献   

13.
Summary Data from focal mechanism solutions obtained by different authors and those of 8 fault-plane solutions found in this study have been used to search for the distribution of the main stress axes in Iran. For this purpose, the area has been divided into three regions as southern, central and northern Iran. The results indicate that the characteristics of the motion at the foci are different in each of the three regions. — By examining the B axes in south Iranian earthquakes, direction of tectonic motion has been obtained as N 66°E. Since the maximum and intermediate stress axes are nearly horizontal, it is concluded that focal movements in this region are of reverse fault type. Thus, there is a similarity between recent crustal movements and those occurring during Alpine orogeny which is in the form of an overthrusting to the southwest. — In central Iran earthquakes however, tension is predominant, and, therefore, in this region faultings are dip-slip normal or strike-slip, and the horizontal components of displacements are dextral. The mean direction of maximum tension axes is nearly perpendicular to the central Iranian complexes. — It is deduced from north Iranian shocks that, in this region, the earthquakes studied are of nearly almost pressural type, and horizontal components of the oblique displacements in foci are sinistral.  相似文献   

14.
The published version 1.0 of the new Italian strong-motion database ITACA (Italian ACcelerometric Archive, ) includes to date (December 2010) about 4,000 three-component waveforms up to M 6.9, from more than 1,800 earthquakes up to 6.9, recorded by about 400 stations in the period 1972–2009. The uncorrected and corrected strong motion data are archived and can be retrieved with their metadata, concerning events, stations and waveforms. The aim of this paper is to present the procedures for processing the records included in ITACA, accounting for the heterogeneity of this data set, both in terms of quality and amplitude of records as well as illustrating the main features of the ITACA strong-motion dataset. Later, we focus on the “exceptional” ground-motion records, that we, conventionally, denote as those having peak acceleration and peak velocity larger than 300 cm/s2 and 15 cm/s, respectively. These records are less than 2% of the whole ITACA dataset but they are the most relevant for the seismic hazard and engineering implications. Such large peak values, recorded at distances up to 30 km, are related not only to the strongest Italian earthquakes, but also to events with magnitude down to 4. Furthermore, we investigate the dependence of the largest peak values on horizontal and vertical directions and on source-to-site distance.  相似文献   

15.
A partially non-ergodic ground-motion prediction equation is estimated for Europe and the Middle East. Therefore, a hierarchical model is presented that accounts for regional differences. For this purpose, the scaling of ground-motion intensity measures is assumed to be similar, but not identical in different regions. This is achieved by assuming a hierarchical model, where some coefficients are treated as random variables which are sampled from an underlying global distribution. The coefficients are estimated by Bayesian inference. This allows one to estimate the epistemic uncertainty in the coefficients, and consequently in model predictions, in a rigorous way. The model is estimated based on peak ground acceleration data from nine different European/Middle Eastern regions. There are large differences in the amount of earthquakes and records in the different regions. However, due to the hierarchical nature of the model, regions with only few data points borrow strength from other regions with more data. This makes it possible to estimate a separate set of coefficients for all regions. Different regionalized models are compared, for which different coefficients are assumed to be regionally dependent. Results show that regionalizing the coefficients for magnitude and distance scaling leads to better performance of the models. The models for all regions are physically sound, even if only very few earthquakes comprise one region.  相似文献   

16.
Deamplification of strong motion and the increase of the effective period of soil deposits are typical nonlinear effects; we seek them in SMART1-array data by applying the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) technique. The recordings, from four soil and one rock stations, represent 23 earthquakes (ML 4.9–7.0); PGA varies between 20–260 cm/s2. For each station, mean HVSR curves are calculated for two PGA ranges: <75 cm/s2 and >100 cm/s2 (weak and strong motion). At the soil stations, the “weak” (linear) and “strong” (nonlinear) responses are significantly different. Below 1–1.8 Hz, the nonlinear response exceeds the linear one. Above 2 Hz, the nonlinear response drops below the linear one and above 4–6 Hz below unity (deamplification). From 10 to 16 Hz, the two responses converge. One soil site shows significant negative correlation between resonance frequency and ground acceleration. Such behaviour agrees with other empirical studies and theoretical predictions. Our results imply that the HVSR technique is sensitive to ground-motion intensity and can be used to detect and study nonlinear site response.  相似文献   

17.
Predictive relations are developed for peak ground acceleration (PGA) from the engineering seismoscope (SRR) records of the 2001 Mw 7.7 Bhuj earthquake and 239 strong-motion records of 32 significant aftershocks of 3.1 ≤ Mw ≤ 5.6 at epicentral distances of 1 ≤ R ≤ 288 km. We have taken advantage of the recent increase in strong-motion data at close distances to derive new attenuation relation for peak horizontal acceleration in the Kachchh seismic zone, Gujarat. This new analysis uses the Joyner-Boore’s method for a magnitude-independent shape, based on geometrical spreading and anelastic attenuation, for the attenuation curve. The resulting attenuation equation is,
where, Y is peak horizontal acceleration in g, Mw is moment magnitude, rjb is the closest distance to the surface projection of the fault rupture in kilometers, and S is a variable taking the values of 0 and 1 according to the local site geology. S is 0 for a rock site, and, S is 1 for a soil site. The relation differs from previous work in the improved reliability of input parameters and large numbers of strong-motion PGA data recorded at short distances (0–50 km) from the source. The relation is in demonstrable agreement with the recorded strong-ground motion data from earthquakes of Mw 3.5, 4.1, 4.5, 5.6, and 7.7. There are insufficient data from the Kachchh region to adequately judge the relation for the magnitude range 5.7 ≤ Mw ≤ 7.7. But, our ground-motion prediction model shows a reasonable correlation with the PGA data of the 29 March, 1999 Chamoli main shock (Mw 6.5), validating our ground-motion attenuation model for an Mw6.5 event. However, our ground-motion prediction shows no correlation with the PGA data of the 10 December, 1967 Koyna main shock (Mw 6.3). Our ground-motion predictions show more scatter in estimated residual for the distance range (0–30 km), which could be due to the amplification/noise at near stations situated in the Kachchh sedimentary basin. We also noticed smaller residuals for the distance range (30–300 km), which could be due to less amplification/noise at sites distant from the Kachchh basin. However, the observed less residuals for the longer distance range (100–300 km) are less reliable due to the lack of available PGA values in the same distance range.  相似文献   

18.
The first ground-motion prediction equation derived from European and Middle Eastern strong-motion data was published more than 30 years ago; since then strong-motion networks and the resulting databank of accelerograms in the region have expanded significantly. Many equations for the prediction of peak ground-motion parameters and response spectral ordinates have been published in recent years both for the entire Euro-Mediterranean and Middle Eastern region as well as for individual countries within this region. Comparisons among empirical ground-motion models for these parameters, developed using large regional datasets, do not support the hypothesis of there being significant differences in earthquake ground-motions from one area of crustal seismicity to another. However, there are certain regions within Europe—affected by different tectonic regimes—for which the existing pan-European equations may not be applicable. The most recent European equations make it possible to now implement overdue modifications to the presentation of seismic design actions in Eurocode 8 that allow an improved approximation to the target uniform hazard spectrum (UHS). Using these recent equations, this study outlines a new approach via which an approximation to the UHS may be constructed using hazard maps calculated for peak ground velocity and the corner period T D in addition to the maps for peak ground acceleration that underpin the current stipulations of Eurocode 8.  相似文献   

19.
Journal of Seismology - In this study, seismic moment, moment magnitude, and the corner frequency of Iranian earthquakes were estimated using the Iran Strong Motion Network (ISMN) data. To estimate...  相似文献   

20.
Generalized inversion of the S-wave amplitude spectra from the strong-motion network data in the East-Central Iran has been used to estimate simultaneously source parameters, site response and the S-wave attenuation (Qs). In this regard, 190 three-component records were used corresponded to 40 earthquakes with the magnitudes M3.5–M7.3. These earthquakes were recorded at 42 stations in the hypocentral distance range from 9 to 200 km. The inverse problem was solved in 20 logarithmically equally spaced points in the frequency band from 0.4 to 15 Hz. The frequency-dependent site amplification was imposed, as a constraint, on two reference site responses in order to remove the undetermined degree of freedom in the inversion and obtain a unique inverse solution. Also, a geometrical spreading factor was assumed for removing the trade-off between geometrical spreading and anelastic attenuation. Different source parameters, such as seismic moment (M0), seismic energy (Es), corner frequency (fc) and Brune stress drop (Δσ), were estimated for each event by fitting an ω2 model to the spectra obtained from the inversion. The stress drop values of earthquakes, obtained in this research, are in good agreement with those of other studies. Also average site response values were correlated to the average shear wave velocities in the uppermost 30 m, in high and low frequency bands. The peak frequencies of site amplifications, estimated by the generalized inversion method, where in good agreement with those of horizontal to vertical (H/V) spectral ratios for the S-wave portion of records. However, no perfect matching in amplitude was obtained due to the deficiencies of the H/V ratio technique. By supposing a free shape for Q factor, a frequency dependent function was found, the logarithm of which could be approximated by a linear function, Q(f)=151f0.75. The uncertainties of model parameters have been evaluated by covariance matrix of least-square fit. The residuals were also analyzed in order to assess the validity of the model. The analysis of residuals with respect to magnitude and distance indicates that they are distributed normally with approximately zero mean. The robustness of the results has been studied concerning their sensitivities to the omission of different datasets, selected randomly from original database. The results obtained here can be used in predicting ground-motion parameters applying stochastic methods.  相似文献   

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