共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
In this study, we focus on a hydrogeological inverse problem specifically targeting monitoring soil moisture variations using tomographic ground penetrating radar (GPR) travel time data. Technical challenges exist in the inversion of GPR tomographic data for handling non-uniqueness, nonlinearity and high-dimensionality of unknowns. We have developed a new method for estimating soil moisture fields from crosshole GPR data. It uses a pilot-point method to provide a low-dimensional representation of the relative dielectric permittivity field of the soil, which is the primary object of inference: the field can be converted to soil moisture using a petrophysical model. We integrate a multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)–Bayesian inversion framework with the pilot point concept, a curved-ray GPR travel time model, and a sequential Gaussian simulation algorithm, for estimating the dielectric permittivity at pilot point locations distributed within the tomogram, as well as the corresponding geostatistical parameters (i.e., spatial correlation range). We infer the dielectric permittivity as a probability density function, thus capturing the uncertainty in the inference. The multi-chain MCMC enables addressing high-dimensional inverse problems as required in the inversion setup. The method is scalable in terms of number of chains and processors, and is useful for computationally demanding Bayesian model calibration in scientific and engineering problems. The proposed inversion approach can successfully approximate the posterior density distributions of the pilot points, and capture the true values. The computational efficiency, accuracy, and convergence behaviors of the inversion approach were also systematically evaluated, by comparing the inversion results obtained with different levels of noises in the observations, increased observational data, as well as increased number of pilot points. 相似文献
2.
Ground water model calibration has made great advances in recent years with practical tools such as PEST being instrumental for making the latest techniques available to practitioners. As models and calibration tools get more sophisticated, however, the power of these tools can be misapplied, resulting in poor parameter estimates and/or nonoptimally calibrated models that do not suit their intended purpose. Here, we focus on an increasingly common technique for calibrating highly parameterized numerical models—pilot point parameterization with Tikhonov regularization. Pilot points are a popular method for spatially parameterizing complex hydrogeologic systems; however, additional flexibility offered by pilot points can become problematic if not constrained by Tikhonov regularization. The objective of this work is to explain and illustrate the specific roles played by control variables in the PEST software for Tikhonov regularization applied to pilot points. A recent study encountered difficulties implementing this approach, but through examination of that analysis, insight into underlying sources of potential misapplication can be gained and some guidelines for overcoming them developed. 相似文献
3.
A nonlinear regression method is developed that can be used to estimate parameters of a ground waterflow model from a combination of observations of hydrological variables and observations of geophysical properties that are functionally related with the hydraulic conductivity. The procedure estimates: parameters characterizing the hydraulic conductivity field (e.g., zonal or pilot point values); geophysical properties that have been observed and that are functionally related with the hydraulic conductivity parameters; and a few parameters of the function that relates the hydraulic conductivity parameters with the geophysical properties (the type of function is assumed known). A fidelity factor, sigma(r)2, of a term of the minimized objective function reflects the faith one has in the validity of this functional relationship. The estimation methodology has been tested by means of synthetic models. The experimental results demonstrate that the number of estimated hydraulic conductivity parameters can be increased by adding geophysical observations to the set of hydrological observations that are traditionally used for model calibration. The improvement of the estimated hydraulic conductivity field and the simulated hydraulic head field can be significant but is dependent on the number, the locations, and the uncertainty of geophysical observations. The sensitivity of the estimation results to the value of sigma(r) is small for the studied problems except when the uncertainty of geophysical observations is high. In the latter case, a large sigma(r) value was found to be optimal to avoid that hydraulic conductivity estimates are closely tied to corresponding but highly uncertain geophysical observations. 相似文献
4.
The purpose of this report is to show a method of determining the top of a refractor departing from the times and slopes of the direct and inverse dromocrones. The method does not need topographical correction and can be applied without knowledge of the distance between the geophone and the shot point. These results having been obtained, the commonly accepted point of view is upset: instead of looking for two points on the surface corresponding to one point of the refractor, we try to etablish, starting with only one point from the surface, the two corresponding points from the top of the refractor. This method can be applied to isolated points and does not demand interpretative hypotheses of any kind, excluding the velocity evaluation of the overburden and of the refractor. The necessary calculations can be easily executed by means of a digital computer to which the dromocrone times and the distances between the geophones must be given. These calculations can also be executed by a person having no knowledge of refraction seismology. This report also examines the validity of the approximations involved in the method proposed. 相似文献
5.
Pilot-point based multi-objective calibration in a surface–subsurface distributed hydrological model
Abstract In this study, a fully-coupled surface–subsurface, distributed, physics-based hydrological model was calibrated using the pilot-point method. A minimum variance field rule was included in the objective function to regularize the extensive calibration exercise that included 74 parameters (72 associated with pilot points and two spatially-invariant channel parameters). Because the overland and vadose zone systems are not in permanent hydrological connection, the information contained in the observation points may not be accessible by the pilot points at all times, rendering them insensitive to the observations and hindering the calibration process. An analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of parameter sensitivities was done to explore how the information contained in local observations spreads from the observation points to the pilot points, where parameter values are identified. The results show that the channel flow time series is valuable to identify the parameters at all pilot-point locations, indicating that the information in channel flow propagates to the entire basin. However, information in soil moisture measurements is of local extent and thus only valuable to identify the parameters at locations close to the observation point. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor I. Nalbantis Citation Maneta, M.P. and Wallender, W.W., 2013. Pilot-point based multi-objective calibration in a surface–subsurface distributed hydrological model. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 390–407. 相似文献
6.
Monica Riva Alberto Guadagnini Shlomo P. Neuman Emanuela Bianchi Janetti Bwalya Malama 《Advances in water resources》2009
We present a nonlinear stochastic inverse algorithm that allows conditioning estimates of transient hydraulic heads, fluxes and their associated uncertainty on information about hydraulic conductivity (K) and hydraulic head (h ) data collected in a randomly heterogeneous confined aquifer. Our algorithm is based on Laplace-transformed recursive finite-element approximations of exact nonlocal first and second conditional stochastic moment equations of transient flow. It makes it possible to estimate jointly spatial variations in natural log-conductivity (Y=lnK), the parameters of its underlying variogram, and the variance–covariance of these estimates. Log-conductivity is parameterized geostatistically based on measured values at discrete locations and unknown values at discrete “pilot points”. Whereas prior values of Y at pilot point are obtained by generalized kriging, posterior estimates at pilot points are obtained through a maximum likelihood fit of computed and measured transient heads. These posterior estimates are then projected onto the computational grid by kriging. Optionally, the maximum likelihood function may include a regularization term reflecting prior information about Y. The relative weight assigned to this term is evaluated separately from other model parameters to avoid bias and instability. We illustrate and explore our algorithm by means of a synthetic example involving a pumping well. We find that whereas Y and h can be reproduced quite well with parameters estimated on the basis of zero-order mean flow equations, all model quality criteria identify the second-order results as being superior to zero-order results. Identifying the weight of the regularization term and variogram parameters can be done with much lesser ambiguity based on second- than on zero-order results. A second-order model is required to compute predictive error variances of hydraulic head (and flux) a posteriori. Conditioning the inversion jointly on conductivity and hydraulic head data results in lesser predictive uncertainty than conditioning on conductivity or head data alone. 相似文献
7.
Pilot points method incorporating prior information for solving the groundwater flow inverse problem
The pilot points method is often used in nonlinear geostatistical calibration. The method consists of estimating the values of the hydraulic properties at a set of arbitrary (pilot) points so as to best fit the aquifer response as measured by available indirect observations (i.e., heads or drawdowns). Though this method remains general and appealing, no prior information of the hydraulic properties is usually included in the optimization process, which constrains the number of pilot points to ensure stability. In this paper, we present a modification of the pilot points method, including prior information in the optimization process by adding a plausibility term to the objective function to be minimized. This results from formulating the inverse problem in a maximum likelihood framework. The performance of the method is tested on a synthetic example. Results show that including the plausibility term improves the identification of heterogeneity. Furthermore, this term makes the inverse problem more stable and allows the use of larger number of pilot points, thus improving the identification of the heterogeneity as well. Therefore, the use of the plausibility term is recommended. 相似文献
8.
Are Models Too Simple? Arguments for Increased Parameterization 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The idea that models should be as simple as possible is often accepted without question. However, too much simplification and parsimony may degrade a model's utility. Models are often constructed to make predictions; yet, they are commonly parameterized with a focus on calibration, regardless of whether (1) the calibration data can constrain simulated predictions or (2) the number and type of calibration parameters are commensurate with the hydraulic property details on which key predictions may depend. Parameterization estimated through the calibration process is commonly limited by the necessity that the number of calibration parameters be smaller than the number of observations. This limitation largely stems from historical restrictions in calibration and computing capability; we argue here that better methods and computing capabilities are now available and should become more widely used. To make this case, two approaches to model calibration are contrasted: (1) a traditional approach based on a small number of homogeneous parameter zones defined by the modeler a priori and (2) regularized inversion, which includes many more parameters than the traditional approach. We discuss some advantages of regularized inversion, focusing on the increased insight that can be gained from calibration data. We present these issues using reasoning that we believe has a common sense appeal to modelers; knowledge of mathematics is not required to follow our arguments. We present equations in an Appendix, however, to illustrate the fundamental differences between traditional model calibration and a regularized inversion approach. 相似文献
9.
Yong Jung G. Mahinthakumar Ranji Ranjithan 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(8):2003-2013
Strategically applied geo-environmental clean-up methods require a better groundwater flow and transport model. Hydraulic conductivity of the subsurface is one of great sources of uncertainty of this model. In order to search hydraulic conductivities, the simultaneous search-based pilot point method (SSBM) was developed to reduce computational procedure of pilot point method and increase characterization accuracy using a global optimization tool (genetic algorithm). SSBM searches pilot point locations and hydraulic conductivities at selected pilot points simultaneously. In the four different scenarios, the comparison between random pilot point locations and SSBM showed that SSBM produced less than two orders magnitude differences in terms of average of minimum fitness for thirty trials (e.g. 4.05E?02 for scenario 2). With respect to average minimum fitness and average hydraulic conductivity difference, SSBM was comparable to D-optimality based pilot point method (DBM). SSBM produced lower average minimum fitness values and similar average hydraulic conductivity difference but it had more variance. Through these results, SSBM showed the potential to replace the DBM through reduced computational procedures in sensitivity calculation with consideration of variance minimization. 相似文献
10.
Ertan Pek?en Türker Yas A. Yekta Kayman Co?kun Özkan 《Journal of Applied Geophysics》2011,75(2):305-318
Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is a global search method, which can be used for quantitative interpretation of self-potential data in geophysics. At the result of this process, parameters of a source model, e.g., the electrical dipole moment, the depth of the source, the distance from the origin, the polarization angle and regional coefficients are estimated. This study investigates the results and interpretation of a detailed numerical data of some simple body responses, contaminated and field data. The method is applied to three field examples from Turkey and the results are compared with the previous works. The statistics of particle swarm optimization and the corresponding model parameters are analyzed with respect to the number of generation. We also present the oscillations of the model parameters at the vicinity of the low misfit area. Further, we show how the model parameters and absolute frequencies are related to the total number of PSO iterations. Gaussian noise shifts the low misfit area region from the correct parameter values proportional to the level of errors, which directly affects the result of the PSO method. These effects also give some ambiguity of the model parameters. However, the statistical analyses help to decrease these ambiguities in order to find the correct values. Thus, the findings suggest that PSO can be used for quantitative interpretation of self-potential data. 相似文献
11.
时间域航空电磁数据的反演 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
本文用广义逆矩阵理论讨论了时间域航空电磁数据的反演方法.以水平二层大地和球体模型为例进行了计算,结果表明这种方法对时间域电磁数据的反演是行之有效的.对于理论数据,一般仅需迭代数次即可稳定地收敛到真值.通过奇异值分析,可以确定一个模型中的相对重要参数和无关紧要参数;对于求解某一特定参数,可确定哪些数据起决定性的作用.由奇异值分解而得出的信息密度矩阵、模型分辨矩阵,分别给出了模型响应拟合数据和模型参数分辨率的度量.这些信息对于时间域航空电磁系统的设计、野外测量和资料解释都具有重要的参考价值.最后给出了实例. 相似文献
12.
A method for generating a suite of synthetic ground motion time‐histories for specified earthquake and site characteristics defining a design scenario is presented. The method employs a parameterized stochastic model that is based on a modulated, filtered white‐noise process. The model parameters characterize the evolving intensity, predominant frequency, and bandwidth of the acceleration time‐history, and can be identified by matching the statistics of the model to the statistics of a target‐recorded accelerogram. Sample ‘observations’ of the parameters are obtained by fitting the model to a subset of the NGA database for far‐field strong ground motion records on firm ground. Using this sample, predictive equations are developed for the model parameters in terms of the faulting mechanism, earthquake magnitude, source‐to‐site distance, and the site shear‐wave velocity. For any specified set of these earthquake and site characteristics, sets of the model parameters are generated, which are in turn used in the stochastic model to generate the ensemble of synthetic ground motions. The resulting synthetic acceleration as well as corresponding velocity and displacement time‐histories capture the main features of real earthquake ground motions, including the intensity, duration, spectral content, and peak values. Furthermore, the statistics of their resulting elastic response spectra closely agree with both the median and the variability of response spectra of recorded ground motions, as reflected in the existing prediction equations based on the NGA database. The proposed method can be used in seismic design and analysis in conjunction with or instead of recorded ground motions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
When comparing solutions for the propagation of SH waves in plane parallel layered elastic and viscoelastic (anelastic) media, one of the first things that becomes apparent is that in the elastic case the location of the saddle points required to obtain a high frequency approximation are located on the real p axis. This is true of the branch points also. In a viscoelastic medium this is not typical. The saddle point corresponding to an arrival lies in the first quadrant of the complex p-plane as do the branch points. Additionally, in the elastic case the saddle point and branch points lie on a straight line drawn through the origin (the positive real axis in the complex p-plane), while in the viscoelastic case this is generally not the case and the saddle point and branch points lie in such a manner as to indicate the degree of their complex values.In this paper simple SH reflected and transmitted particle displacement arrivals due to a point torque source at the surface in a viscoelastic medium composed of a layer over a half space will be considered. The path of steepest descent defining the saddle point in the first quadrant will be parameterized in terms of a real variable and the high frequency solutions and intermediate analytic results obtained will be used to formulate more specific constraints and observations regarding saddle point location relative to branch point locations in the complex p-plane.As saddle point determination for an arrival is, in general, the solution of a non-linear equation in two unknowns (the real and imaginary parts of the complex saddle point p
0), which must be solved numerically, the use of analytical methods for investigating this problem type is somewhat limited.Numerical experimentation using well documented solution methods, such as Newton's method, was undertaken and some observations were made. Although fairly basic, they did provide for the design of algorithms for the computation of synthetic traces that displayed more efficient convergence and accuracy than those previously employed. This was the primary motivation for this work and the results from the SH problem may be used with minimal modifications to address the more complicated subject of coupled P-SV wave propagation in viscoelastic media.Another reason for revisiting a problem that has received some attention in the literature was to approach it in a fairly comprehensive manner so that a number of specific observations may be made regarding the location of the saddle point in the complex p-plane and to incorporate these into computer software. These have been found to result in more efficient algorithms for the SH wave propagation and a significant enhancement of the comparable software in the P-SV problem. 相似文献
14.
In this paper we present a stochastic model reduction method for efficiently solving nonlinear unconfined flow problems in heterogeneous random porous media. The input random fields of flow model are parameterized in a stochastic space for simulation. This often results in high stochastic dimensionality due to small correlation length of the covariance functions of the input fields. To efficiently treat the high-dimensional stochastic problem, we extend a recently proposed hybrid high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) technique to high-dimensional problems with multiple random input fields and integrate it with a sparse grid stochastic collocation method (SGSCM). Hybrid HDMR can decompose the high-dimensional model into a moderate M-dimensional model and a few one-dimensional models. The moderate dimensional model only depends on the most M important random dimensions, which are identified from the full stochastic space by sensitivity analysis. To extend the hybrid HDMR, we consider two different criteria for sensitivity test. Each of the derived low-dimensional stochastic models is solved by the SGSCM. This leads to a set of uncoupled deterministic problems at the collocation points, which can be solved by a deterministic solver. To demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method, a few numerical experiments are carried out for the unconfined flow problems in heterogeneous porous media with different correlation lengths. The results show that a good trade-off between computational complexity and approximation accuracy can be achieved for stochastic unconfined flow problems by selecting a suitable number of the most important dimensions in the M-dimensional model of hybrid HDMR. 相似文献
15.
Doherty J 《Ground water》2003,41(2):170-177
Use of nonlinear parameter estimation techniques is now commonplace in ground water model calibration. However, there is still ample room for further development of these techniques in order to enable them to extract more information from calibration datasets, to more thoroughly explore the uncertainty associated with model predictions, and to make them easier to implement in various modeling contexts. This paper describes the use of "pilot points" as a methodology for spatial hydraulic property characterization. When used in conjunction with nonlinear parameter estimation software that incorporates advanced regularization functionality (such as PEST), use of pilot points can add a great deal of flexibility to the calibration process at the same time as it makes this process easier to implement. Pilot points can be used either as a substitute for zones of piecewise parameter uniformity, or in conjunction with such zones. In either case, they allow the disposition of areas of high and low hydraulic property value to be inferred through the calibration process, without the need for the modeler to guess the geometry of such areas prior to estimating the parameters that pertain to them. Pilot points and regularization can also be used as an adjunct to geostatistically based stochastic parameterization methods. Using the techniques described herein, a series of hydraulic property fields can be generated, all of which recognize the stochastic characterization of an area at the same time that they satisfy the constraints imposed on hydraulic property values by the need to ensure that model outputs match field measurements. Model predictions can then be made using all of these fields as a mechanism for exploring predictive uncertainty. 相似文献
16.
17.
使用震源轨迹确定震源位置不仅稳健而且直观,但当介质复杂时震源轨迹难以给出解析解.基于最小走时树射线追踪技术计算震源轨迹的方法(以轨迹所在的残差场中残差最小的点(初始点)至残差较小的点(震源轨迹代表点)的射线路径表示震源轨迹)适用于复杂速度模型,但尚不能正确计算由多段组成的震源轨迹,同时兼顾计算轨迹的完整性和精细性较为困难,计算参数设置烦琐不适于大批量数据的自动处理.针对该方法存在的问题,本文对其进行了改进:(1)采用一种"削皮"算法选取震源轨迹所经过的模型单元的节点作为轨迹代表点;(2)将残差较小的区域作为震源轨迹计算区域(该区域依轨迹分布自适应地划分为若干个连通区域),从未计算的轨迹代表点中选取残差最小者作为射线路径初始点,利用最小走时树算法依次计算所有连通区域内的震源轨迹;(3)通过去掉较短的不再分叉的射线路径使震源轨迹更为精细.虚拟和真实事件的算例表明,改进方法有效克服了原方法的不足,可便捷地计算复杂速度模型中事件的震源轨迹,计算的轨迹精细且较完整. 相似文献
18.
A method for generating an ensemble of orthogonal horizontal ground motion components with correlated parameters for specified earthquake and site characteristics is presented. The method employs a parameterized stochastic model that is based on a time‐modulated filtered white‐noise process with the filter having time‐varying characteristics. Whereas the input white‐noise excitation describes the stochastic nature of the ground motion, the forms of the modulating function and the filter and their parameters characterize the evolutionary intensity and nonstationary frequency content of the ground motion. The stochastic model is fitted to a database of recorded horizontal ground motion component pairs that are rotated into their principal axes, a set of orthogonal axes along which the components are statistically uncorrelated. Model parameters are identified for each ground motion component in the database. Using these data, predictive equations are developed for the model parameters in terms of earthquake and site characteristics and correlation coefficients between parameters of the two components are estimated. Given a design scenario specified in terms of earthquake and site characteristics, the results of this study allow one to generate realizations of correlated model parameters and use them along with simulated white‐noise processes to generate synthetic pairs of horizontal ground motion components along the principal axes. The proposed simulation method does not require any seed recorded ground motion and is ideal for use in performance‐based earthquake engineering. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
针对多年时序形变观测资料有效信息提取复杂的问题,对基于多核函数的滤波方法进行研究,得到以下有益结论:(1)当核函数指数为0.5,光滑因子为0.003时,10天及以上核点间隔的滤波模型单位权中误差最小;(2)核点间隔控制滤波信息频谱的高低,间隔越大频谱信息越低,反之则频谱信息越高;(3)因数据缺失部分造成核点减少,当连续减少2个以上时滤波失败,当连续减少2个时数据缺失部分滤波出现失真,当减少1个时滤波效果不受影响;(4)通过对GPS时序资料、定点形变时序资料和非构造形变时序资料的滤波应用,获取不同频谱的信息,验证了本文方法的稳定性和可靠性。 相似文献
20.
基于第二代小波变换的提升方案构造了插值小波，将雷达波场函数进行了二维小波变换，得到所有尺度上与计算网格相联系的小波系数和尺度系数.对所有尺度上的小波系数进行分析，根据解的局部性与小波系数阈值的控制，实现网格压缩和配点的自适应调节.保留大于给定阈值的小波系数及对应网格点，令小于给定阈值的小波系数为零，并舍弃其对应网格点.达到光滑区域采用较少的计算网格点，在奇异性较大的区域采用较多的计算网格点的目的.通过对自适应网格进行邻域校正、重构检查等附加修正，推导了场值更新的显式时间迭代方案.最后，以均匀、阶梯与复杂三个典型GPR模型为例，与常规数值计算结果对比表明：自适应小波配点法（AWCM）利用第二代小波的多尺度分解和快速变换的特点，可以使计算网格随着时间步适应解的移动和变化，允许计算资源更有效地使用，具有高压缩率，达到跟踪奇异性的目的，特别适合于探地雷达正演中波传问题的模拟. 相似文献