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1.
Two zones of seismicity (ten events with M w = 7.0–7.7) stretching from Makran and the Eastern Himalaya to the Central and EasternTien Shan, respectively, formed over 11 years after the great Makran earthquake of 1945 (M w = 8.1). Two large earthquakes (M w = 7.7) hit theMakran area in 2013. In addition, two zones of seismicity (M ≥ 5.0) occurred 1–2 years after theMakran earthquake in September 24, 2013, stretching in the north-northeastern and north-northwestern directions. Two large Nepal earthquakes struck the southern extremity of the “eastern” zone (April 25, 2015, M w = 7.8 and May 12, 2015, M w = 7.3), and the Pamir earthquake (December 7, 2015, M w = 7.2) occurred near Sarez Lake eastw of the “western” zone. The available data indicate an increase in subhorizontal stresses in the region under study, which should accelerate the possible preparation of a series of large earthquakes, primarily in the area of the Central Tien Shan, between 70° and 79° E, where no large earthquakes (M w ≥ 7.0) have occurred since 1992.  相似文献   

2.
Earthquakes in Iran and neighbouring regions are closely connected to their position within the geologically active Alpine-Himalayan belt. Modern tectonic activity is forced by the convergent movements between two plates: The Arabian plate, including Saudi Arabia, the Persian Gulf and the Zagros Ranges of Iran, and the Eurasian plate. The intensive seismic activity in this region is recorded with shallow focal depth and magnitude rising as high as Mw = 7.8. The study region can be attributed to a highly complex geodynamic process and therefore is well suited for multifractal seismicity analysis. Multifractal analysis of earthquakes (mb ≥ 3) occurring during 1973 – 2006 led to the detection of a clustering pattern in the narrow time span prior to all the large earthquakes: Mw = 7.8 on 16.9.1978; Mw = 6.8 on 26.12.2003; Mw = 7.7 on 10.5.97. Based on the spatio-temporal clustering pattern of events, the potential for future large events can be assessed. Spatio-temporal clustering of events apparently indicates a highly stressed region, an asperity or weak zone from which the rupture propagation eventually nucleates, causing large earthquakes. This clustering pattern analysis done on a well-constrained catalogue for most of the fault systems of known seismicity may eventually aid in the preparedness and earthquake disaster mitigation.  相似文献   

3.
—The 1952 Kamchatka earthquake is among the largest earthquakes of this century, with an estimated magnitude of M w = 9.0. We inverted tide gauge records from Japan, North America, the Aleutians, and Hawaii for the asperity distribution. The results show two areas of high slip. The average slip is over 3 m, giving a seismic moment estimate of 155×1020Nm, or M w = 8.8. The 20th century seismicity of the 1952 rupture zone shows a strong correlation to the asperity distribution, which suggests that the large earthquakes (M > 7) are controlled by the locations of the asperities and that future large earthquakes will also recur in the asperity regions.  相似文献   

4.
Recent results from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements show deformation along the coast of Ecuador and Colombia that can be linked to the rupture zone of the earthquake in 1979. A 3D elastic boundary element model is used to simulate crustal deformation observed by GPS campaigns in 1991, 1994, 1996, and 1998. Deformation in Ecuador can be explained best by 50% apparent locking on the subduction interface. Although there have not been any historic large earthquakes (Mw>7) south of the 1906 earthquake rupture zone, 50% apparent elastic locking is necessary to model the deformation observed there. In Colombia, only 30% apparent elastic locking is occurring along the subduction interface in the 1979 earthquake rupture zone (Mw 8.2), and no elastic locking is necessary to explain the crustal deformation observed at two GPS sites north of there. There is no evidence from seismicity or plate geometry that plate coupling on the subduction zone is reduced in Colombia. However, simple viscoelastic models suggest that the apparent reduction in elastic locking can be explained entirely by the response of a viscous upper mantle to the 1979 earthquake. These results suggest that elastic strain accumulation is occurring evenly throughout the study area, but postseismic relaxation masks the true total strain rate.  相似文献   

5.
This paper deals with characteristics of the short period S-wave attenuation field in the rupture zones of 37 large and great earthquakes with M s = 7.0–8.6, as well as in low seismicity areas. We estimate the effective quality factor from Sn and Lg coda envelopes in two time intervals (Q 1 and Q 2). The quantity Q 1 is a measure of shear wave attenuation in the uppermost mantle, at depths of down to approximately 200–250 km, while Q 2 is relevant to deeper horizons of the upper mantle. We studied variations in the attenuation field in the rupture zone of the 1950 Assam earthquake. We examined the parameters Q 1, Q 2, and Q 1/Q 2 as functions of the time ΔT elapsed after a large earthquake. It is shown that the parameter Q 2 in rupture zones is practically independent of ΔT, while the quantities Q 1 and Q 1/Q 2 increase until ΔT ～ 20–25 years, especially rapidly for normal, normal-oblique, and strike-slip earthquake mechanisms. This analysis provides evidence that, as ΔT increases, so does the quality factor in the upper mantle for shear waves. It is supposed that this is related to the rise of mantle fluids to the crust. Geodynamic mechanisms are discussed that can support a comparatively rapid “drying” of the upper mantle beneath earthquake rupture zones.  相似文献   

6.
The seismicity that accompanied the Tolbachik Fissure Eruption was recorded by additional seismic stations that were installed in the southern Klyuchevskoi Volcanic Cluster area in January to October 2013. We used broadband (0.033–50 Hz) three-component digital Guralp CMG-6TD seismometers. This temporary network provided seismicity data at a lower energy level than can be done using the regional seismograph network of Kamchatka. The processing of the resulting digital records supplied data for compiling a catalog of over 700 M L = 0–3.5 (K S = 1.5–8.5) earthquakes, which is an order of magnitude greater than the number of events located by the regional network for the same period of time. The seismicity in the area of Ploskii Tolbachik Volcano was found to concentrate mostly in spatially isolated areas during the eruption. The main isolated clusters of earthquakes were identified both in the eruption area itself and along the periphery of Ploskii Tolbachik Volcano, in the area of the Zimina volcanic massif, and in the Tolud epicenter zone; the eruption zone was not dominant in the seismicity. The region of a shallow seismicity increase beneath Ploskii Tolbachik before the eruption was not found to exhibit any increased activity during the time the temporary seismograph network was operated, which means that a seismicity inversion took place at the beginning of the eruption. We discuss the question of what the earthquake-generating features are that we have identified.  相似文献   

7.
Results are reported from the ongoing 2007–2008 work using the method of long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc based on the patterns of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. This method was successful in predicting the M S = 8.2 Simushir I. (Middle Kuril Is.) earthquake occurring in the Simushir I. area on November 15, 2006. An M S = 8.1 earthquake occurred in the same area on January 13, 2007. We consider the evolution of the seismic process and determine the common rupture region of the two earthquakes. The sequence of M ≥ 6.0 aftershocks and forecasts for these are given. We provide a long-term forecast for the earthquake-generating zone of the Kuril-Kamchatka arc for the next five years, April 2008 to March 2013. Explanations are given for the method of calculation and prediction. The probable locations of future M ≥ 7.7 earthquakes are specified. For all segments of the earthquake-generating zone we predict the expected phases of the seismic cycle, the rate of low-magnitude seismicity (A10), the magnitudes of moderate-sized earthquakes to be expected, with probabilities of 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, their maximum possible magnitudes, and the probabilities of occurrence of great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes. The results of these forecasts are used to enhance seismic safety.  相似文献   

8.
The characteristics of spatio-temporal seismicity evolution before the Wenchuan earthquake are studied. The results mainly involve in the trend abnormal features and its relation to the Wenchuan earthquake. The western Chinese mainland and its adjacent area has been in the seismically active period since 2001, while the seismic activity shows the obvious quiescence of M≥?7.0, M≥?6.0 and M?≥5.0 earthquakes in Chinese mainland. A quiescence area with M?≥7.0 has been formed in the middle of the North-South seismic zone since 1988, and the Wenchuan earthquake occurred just within this area. There are a background seismicity gap of M?≥5.0 earthquakes and a seismogenic gap of ML?≥4.0 earthquakes in the area of Longmenshan fault zone and its vicinity prior to the Wenchuan earthquake. The seismic activity obviously strengthened and a doughnut-shape pattern of M?≥4.6 earthquakes is formed in the middle and southern part of the North-South seismic zone after the 2003 Dayao, Yunnan, earthquake. Sichuan and its vicinity in the middle of the doughnut-shape pattern show abnormal quiescence. At the same time, the seismicity of earthquake swarms is significant and shows heterogeneity in the temporal and spatial process. A swarm gap appears in the M4.6 seismically quiet area, and the Wenchuan earthquake occurred just on the margin of the gap. In addition, in the short term before the Wenchuan earthquake, the quiescence of earthquake with ML≥?4.0 appears in Qinghai-Tibet block and a seismic belt of ML?≥3.0 earthquakes, with NW striking and oblique with Longmenshan fault zone, is formed.  相似文献   

9.
We explore fractal properties of two observed seismicity distributions prior to the 2003 M w 7.4 Colima, Mexico and 1992 M w 7.3 Landers, USA earthquakes, together with several mathematical fractal distributions and two non-fractal ones, in order to estimate minimum reliable sample sizes, determine whether fractality for observed seismicity is essentially different from random uniform distributions, and explore the possibility of extracting premonitory information from fractal characteristics of seismicity before large earthquakes. Sample sizes above 800 events for whole catalogs appear to be sufficient to maintain ordered multifractality and to yield dimension estimates that vary smoothly and reliably. Fractal estimates appear to be best for whole catalogs that include aftershocks. The fractal characteristics of spatial distributions of seismicity are essentially different from those of the uniform random distribution, which is the null hypothesis of a non-fractal distribution with minimum information. The fractal dimensions and afractality measures of seismicity distributions change with time and show distinctive behaviors associated with foreshocks and main events, although these behaviors are different for each example. Results suggest the possibility of a priori identification of foreshocks to large earthquakes. A combination of fractal dimension and afractality measures over time may be helpful in large earthquake premonitory studies.  相似文献   

10.
In active tectonic areas like Iran, where the coverage of seismograph stations is inadequate but earthquakes occur frequently, uppermost mantle body wave velocities are conventionally determined by using a single station and an array of earthquake sources. This method fails when earthquakes are mislocated or source areas have varied structures. An extension of the traditional surface wave two-station method is developed for body waves and shown to be independent of mislocation errors. It thus gives accurate estimates of body wave velocities along two station paths with greatly reduced errors.Uppermost mantle P wave (Pn) velocities are determined along several paths in Iran using this method and show zones of low-velocity corresponding to zones of high attenuation and Quaternary volcanic activity in the country. A remarkably high Pn velocity of 8.30 km/s is found for the Zagros area of western Iran more typical of shield like structures than that of tectonic areas.  相似文献   

11.
—The Gran Sasso chain (Central Apennines, Italy) contains one of the largest aquifers of Central Italy. From 1970–1986 the massif was tunnelled through in order to build up a highway and an international underground laboratory for nuclear physics research. These works have strongly modified the hydrogeological situation of the chain, as shown by the decrease in flow rate that occurred in many springs located at the border of the carbonatic structure, along the boundary between the permeable limestone of the massif and the surrounding aquicludes. The analysis of the seismicity (M≥ 3.0) that occurred in the Gran Sasso area from 1956 to 1995 suggests that after the tunnelling works both the number of earthquakes has increased and epicenters have migrated, gathering at the northwestern border zone. The foremost events which occurred in this zone in recent years took place on May 5, 1992 (M = 3.1), August 25, 1992 (M = 3.9) and March 13, 1994 (M = 3.5). The flow rate data of four springs and water level data of an underground karst pool located at the border of the carbonatic structure of the massif show clear anomalies before the occurrence of the quoted earthquakes. Regardless, these anomalies can be explained by the rapid melting of the thick mantle of snow on the Gran Sasso chain, due to sudden increases of mean temperatures. In this paper we present and discuss the possibility that the quoted earthquakes are induced by the irregular variations of the Gran Sasso aquifer, evidenced by the quoted anomalies in the flow rate and water level.  相似文献   

12.
This paper reports a study of the Tolud earthquake sequence; the sequence was a burst of shallow seismicity between November 28 and December 7, 2012; it accompanied the initial phase in the Tolbachik Fissure Eruption of 2012?2013. The largest earthquake (the Tolud earthquake of November 30, 2012, to be referred to as the Tolud Earthquake in what follows, with KS = 11.3, ML = 4.9, MC = 5.4, and MW = 4.8) is one of the five larger seismic events that have been recorded at depths shallower than 10 km beneath the entire Klyuchevskoi Volcanic Cluster in 1961?2015. It was found that the Tolud earthquake sequence was the foreshock–aftershock process of the Tolud Earthquake. This is one of the larger seismicity episodes ever to have occurred in the volcanic areas of Kamchatka. Data of the Kamchatka seismic stations were used to compute some parameters for the Tolud Earthquake and its largest (ML = 4.3) aftershock; the parameters include the source parameters and mechanisms, and the moment magnitudes, since no information on these is available at the world seismological data centers. The focal mechanisms for the Tolud Earthquake and for its aftershock are consistent with seismic ruptures at a tension fault in the rift zone. Instrumental data were used to estimate the intensity of shaking due to the Tolud Earthquake. We discuss the sequence of events that was a signature of the time-dependent seismic and volcanic activity that took place in the Tolbachik zone in late November 2012 and terminated in the Tolud burst of seismicity. Based on the current ideas of the tectonics and magma sources for the Tolbachik volcanic zone, we discuss possible causes of these earthquakes.  相似文献   

13.
The development of fault interaction models has triggered the need for an accurate estimation of seismicity rate changes following the occurrence of an earthquake. Several statistical methods have been developed in the past to serve this purpose, each relying on different assumptions (e.g., stationarity, gaussianity) pertaining to the seismicity process.In this paper we review these various approaches, discuss their limitations, and propose further improvements. The feasibility of mapping robust seismicity rate changes, and more particularly rate decreases (i.e., seismicity shadows), in the first few days of an aftershock sequence, is examined. To this aim, the hypothesis of large numbers of earthquakes, hence the use of Gaussian statistics, as is usually assumed, must be dropped.Finally, we analyse the modulation in seismicity rates following the 1992, June 28 Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake in the region of the 1992, April 22 Mw 6.1 Joshua Tree earthquake. Clear instances of early triggering (i.e., in the first few days) followed by a seismicity quiescence, are observed. This could indicate the existence of two distinct interaction regimes, a first one caused by the destabilisation of active faults by the travelling seismic waves, and a second one due to the remaining static stress perturbation.  相似文献   

14.
The present study focuses on the P and S crustal and uppermost mantle velocity structure in the broader Kozani-Grevena area. The velocity structure is derived from the inversion of travel times of local events. The main data source is the travel times from the aftershock sequence of the large event of 13 of May 1995 (Mw = 6.6) which occurred in the study area. An appropriate preconditioning of the final linearized system is used to reduce ray density effects on the results. An attempt is made to interpret the features and details of the crustal structure in terms of the geotectonic setting of the area. The observed features of the deeper crustal and uppermost mantle structure are in very good agreement with previous results. Specifically, a crustal thickening is observed along a ENE-WSW direction, perpendicular to the well-known Dinaric trend (NNW-SSE) of the geological formations of the area, in accordance with the theoretical expectation of a thicker crust under the accretion prism which starts at the SW edge of the study area.  相似文献   

15.
Ground motion produced by low magnitude earthquakes can be used to predict peak values in high seismic risk areas where large earthquakes data are not available. In the present work 20 local earthquakes (MD∈[?0.3, 2.2]) occurred in the Campi Flegrei caldera during the last decade were analyzed. We followed this strategy: empirical relations were used to calibrate synthetic modeling, accounting for the source features and wave propagation effects. Once the source and path parameters of ground motion simulation were obtained from the reference data set, we extrapolated scenarios for stronger earthquakes for which real data are not available. The procedure is structured in two steps: (1) evaluation of ground motion prediction equation for Campi Flegrei area and assessment of input parameters for the source, path and site effects in order to use the finite fault stochastic approach (EXSIM code); (2) simulation of two moderate-to-large earthquake scenarios for which only historical data or partial information are available (Mw4.2 and Mw5.4). The results show that the investigated area is characterized by high attenuation of peak amplitude and not negligible site effects. The stochastic approach has revealed a good tool to calibrate source, path and site parameters on small earthquakes and to generate large earthquake scenario. The investigated magnitude range represents a lower limit to apply the stochastic method as a calibration tool, due to the small size of involved faults (fault length around 200/300 m).  相似文献   

16.
An interpretation of the type, size, and interrelations of sources is proposed for the three large Aleutian earthquakes of March 9, 1957, May 7, 1986, and June 10, 1996, which occurred in structures of the Andreanof Islands. According to our interpretation, the earthquakes were caused by steep reverse faults confined to different structural units of the southern slope of the Andreanof Islands and oriented along the strike of these structures. An E-W reverse fault that generated the largest earthquake of 1957 is located within the Aleutian Terrace and genetically appears to be associated with the development of the submarine Hawley Ridge. The western and eastern boundaries of this source are structurally well expressed by the Adak Canyon in the west (～177°W) and an abrupt change in isobaths in the east (～173°W). The character of the boundaries is reflected in the focal mechanisms. The source of the earthquake of 1957 extends for about 300 km, which agrees well with modern estimates of its magnitude (M w = 8.6). Because the earthquake of 1957 caused, due to its high strength, seismic activation of adjacent areas of the Aleutian island arc, its aftershock zone appreciably exceeded in size the earthquake source. Reverse faults that activated the seismic sources of the earthquakes of 1986 and 1996 were located within the southern slope of the Andreanof Islands, higher than the Aleutian Terrace, outside the seismic source of the 1957 earthquake. The boundaries of these sources are also well expressed in structures and focal mechanisms. According to our estimate, the length of the 1986 earthquake source does not exceed 130–140 km, which does not contradict its magnitude (M w = 8). The length of the 1996 earthquake source is ～100 km, which also agrees with the magnitude of the earthquake (M w = 7.8).  相似文献   

17.
We determine the rupture velocity, rupture area, stress drop and duration of four strong deep-focus earthquakes in the Philippines by back-projecting the teleseismic P waves. Four deep-focus earthquakes occurred in a totally consumed Molucca microplate; their focal depths were greater than 550 km and their moment magnitudes were between M w 6.6 and M w 7.6. By studying this deep-focus cluster, we are able to estimate the rupture velocity, rupture area and stress drop which would assist in constraining the physical mechanism for earthquakes deeper than 500 km. Since the Molucca microplate is totally consumed, little evidence is left on the surface for us to do research. This deep-focus cluster provides us the opportunity to reveal the properties of this totally consumed microplate by using seismic method for the first time. Four earthquakes in this deep-focus cluster all have multiple rupture subevents. The M w 7.3 event ruptures in two subevents, the M w 7.6 and M w 7.4 events both have three subevents. The M w 6.6 event has single peak on the amplitude as a function of time; however, its energy releases at two spatially separated areas. Our results show that this deep-focus cluster has a slow rupture velocity which is about 0.27 to 0.43 of the shear wave velocity, long-scaled duration, concentrated energy release area, and high stress drop. These source properties are similar to those of other deep earthquakes occurring in warm slabs and indicate that the totally consumed Molucca microplate possibly is a warm plate.  相似文献   

18.
The seismicity of western Macedonia is examined in the present paper. On the basis of historical information as well as on instrumental data it is found that this area is characterized by low seismicity. The focal region of the Grevena-Kozani 1995 earthquake exhibits the highest seismicity in terms of probabilities for the generation of strong (Ms ≥ 6.0) earthquakes in a period of fifty years. Two other regions with relatively high seismicity were also distinguished (west of Edessa and around Prespes lakes). Accurate determination of focal parameters of all earthquakes occurred in the area during October 1975-April 1995, by the use of a 3-D crustal model shows that the seismic activity is related to the graben structures of the studied area. Finally, evidence is presented that the triggering of the 1995 earthquake may be related to the impoundment of the Polyfytos artificial lake.  相似文献   

19.
Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, the capital of Malaysia, may well represent the classic examples of area with low seismic hazard but with high consequence. Both cities are located in a low-seismicity region of Southeast Asia, where active seismic sources are located more than 300 km away. Seismic designs have not been implemented in this seemingly low-hazard region though distant earthquakes in Sumatra had frequently shaken high-rise structures in the two cities. Several studies have been conducted to systematically assess the seismic hazards of Singapore and the Malay Peninsula. The present research particularly addresses issues in deriving a new set of attenuation relationships of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and response spectral acceleration (RSA) for the Sumatran-subduction earthquakes. To be relevant for the seismic hazard assessment of the remote metropolises, the derived attenuation relationships cover a long distance range from 150 to 1500 km. The attenuation relationships are derived using synthetic seismograms that account for source and path effects. The uncertainties in rupture parameters, such as stress drop, strike, dip and rake angles, have been defined according to the regional geological and tectonic settings as well as the ruptures of previous earthquakes. The seismic potential of the Sumatran subduction zone are high in the region from 2°N to 5°S as there has been no recurrence of great thrust events since 1861. A large event with Mw greater than 7.8 in this particular subduction zone may be capable of generating destructive ground motions in Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, even at a distance of 700 km.  相似文献   

20.
The plate dynamics in the central western Mediterranean region is characterised by a collision between the Eurasian and African plates. In response to this dynamics, many systems of faults and folds having a NE-SW and E-W trending have been generated along the Tellian Atlas of Algeria. The Oranie region (north western Algeria) has experienced some significant earthquakes in the last centuries, the most important one is that of Oran city on February 9th 1790, Io = XI which destroyed the town completely and caused the loss of many lives. Since 1790 no other event was so disastrous except that of August 18th 1994, Mw = 5.7, which struck Mascara province (Algeria) at 01 h 13 mn GMT. Since the beginning of this century the region has been dominated by a seismic quietness. Thus, no event with magnitude larger than 5.5 have occurred in this area. In relation with this recent event, a seismotectonic framework summarising the tectonic, seismicity and focal solution results is presented. The Maximum Observed Intensities Map (MOI) made for Algeria (Bezzeghoud et al., 1996) is also used to show that the Mascara region is located in an VIII-X intensity zone, which explain partially the casualties caused by the 18/08/1994 (Mw = 5.7) earthquake. This earthquake is not anomalous compared to historical records but is unusual compared to recorded seismicity of this century. The seismotectonic map made in this study and also the review of the focal solutions given by the EMSC, Harvard, and other authors shows that our event is probably associated with a source belonging to a system of faults located in the vicinity of the village of Hacine where the maximum damage was observed.  相似文献   

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