共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 140 毫秒
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本文将半参数平差模型引入电离层球谐函数系数的预报中,建立了半参数球谐函数模型(Semiparametric-Spherical Harmonic,Semi-SH)来预测全球电离层总电子含量.首先,通过快速傅里叶变换获得球谐函数系数的周期和振幅,将振幅高的主周期归入趋势函数,振幅低的剩余周期归入随机信号,建立了半参数模型,同时利用核估计方法拟合趋势函数,解算随机信号,并在时间域上进行外推,得到了预报时间的球谐函数系数,代入15阶电离层球谐函数模型,最后得出电离层总电子含量(Total Electron Content,TEC)的预报值.本文基于欧洲定轨中心(CODE)发布的球谐函数系数进行电离层TEC长期预报和短期预报分析,其中长期预报采用四年预报两年的模式对球谐函数系数进行预报,短期预报设计了三个算例,采用前30天预报后一天的模式,分别预报1天、滑动预报7天和滑动预报30天.实验结果表明:长期预报能够较好地反映全球电离层TEC的变化趋势和波动情况,Semi-SH模型对全球电离层TEC平均值(Mean TEC global,MTECglobal)的拟合值和预报值与MTECglobal实际值的相关系数分别为0.8743和0.8010,呈现出高度相关性.短期预报中,在太阳活动高年和太阳活动低年,Semi-SH模型在中纬度地区预报精度较CODE发布的电离层TEC 1天预报产品(CODE′S 1-Day Predicted GIM,C1PG)有较大提升,在高纬度与低纬度地区两种模型预报精度相当;Semi-SH模型在太阳活动高年和太阳活动低年30天滑动预报精度的均值均高于C1PG模型.实验结果说明了Semi-SH模型预报电离层TEC值的有效性. 相似文献
2.
半参数球谐函数(Semiparametric Spherical Harmonic, Semi-SH)模型能减少电离层预报模型误差以及残余周期带来的系统误差.但是半参数球谐函数模型中窗宽参数的选取会带来一定的估计偏差,本文利用长短期记忆神经网络(Long-Short Term Memory Networks, LSTM)在非平稳性时间序列预报中的良好适应性,提出了一种联合Semi-SH与LSTM(Semi-SH-LSTM)的全球电离层TEC短期组合预报模型,适用于1—5天的短期预报. Semi-SH-LSTM模型通过预报球谐函数系数解算全球电离层TEC,利用二次多项式和半参数核估计方法分别拟合球谐系数趋势项和周期项,最后基于LSTM对拟合残差进行补偿预报.本文利用欧洲定轨中心(Center for Orbit Determination in Europe, CODE)球谐函数系数产品,采用单天预报和多天预报两种实验方案验证Semi-SH-LSTM模型的有效性.实验结果表明,相比于Semi-SH模型和综合半参数与自回归模型,Semi-SH-LSTM模型的单天全球TEC预报残差RMS值分... 相似文献
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2016年2月,武汉大学卫星导航定位技术研究中心(Wuhan University, WHU)正式成为新的国际GNSS服务组织(International GNSS Services, IGS)电离层联合分析中心(Ionosphere Associate Analysis Center, IAAC).本文首次系统地评估和分析了武汉大学IGS电离层分析中心自2016年日常化运行以来(2016年1月到2018年9月,太阳活动低年)的全球电离层产品的精度,并与其他六家IAACs (CODE、JPL、ESA、UPC、EMR和CAS)进行了比较分析.结果表明:WHU的全球电离层产品能够长期稳定且有效地监测全球电离层总电子含量(Total Electron Content, TEC)的时空变化;和IGS综合全球电离层产品比较,WHU的模型均方根误差和CODE、JPL相差不大,均值约为1.4 TECU,产品一致性优于其他IAACs;和GPS实测电离层TEC比较,WHU的模型内符合精度和CODE基本相当,均值约为1.4 TECU,且与电离层活动水平和地理纬度存在显著的相关性;和Jason-2测高卫星VTEC比较,WHU的全球电离层产品的系统性偏差均值约为-0.7 TECU,在不同纬度约为-3.0到1.0 TECU,且与地理纬度存在近似抛物线函数的关系;WHU的模型外符合精度和CODE、JPL以及CAS基本一致,均值约为2.9 TECU,且在中高纬度地区优于低纬度地区,北半球优于南半球. 相似文献
4.
针对电离层半参数球谐函数模型中窗宽参数选择引起的估计偏差,本文在传统的电离层球谐函数模型中引入半参数核估计和自回归(Autoregressive model,AR)模型,分别用于分离球谐函数模型的系统误差和窗宽参数引起的估计偏差,提出一种全球电离层总电子含量(Total Electron Content,TEC)组合预报模型.首先,利用多项式拟合法剔除球谐系数的趋势项;然后利用频谱分析法提取球谐系数的周期,引入半参数核估计平差模型求解模型参数,建立半参数球谐函数(Semiparametric-Spherical Harmonic,Semi-SH)模型;最后将Semi-SH模型拟合残差用AR模型补偿预报.实验结果表明,组合预报模型相比单一的Semi-SH模型有较大的提升,全球TEC预报值与欧洲定轨中心(Center for Orbit Determination in Europe,CODE)发布的TEC值相比,单天预报残差小于1 TECU、3 TECU和5 TECU占比分别为54.30％、93.40％和98.61％;组合模型滑动预报5天相对精度在低、中、高纬度地区分别提高了 2.14％、1.32％和2.32％. 相似文献
5.
利用电离层CT方法研究了1995年10月24日日全食的电离层效应.文中针对电离层CT重建剖面日变化不连续的情况,提出了一种基于奇异值分解(SVD)技术的时域插值方法.利用该方法提取该次日食所产生的电离层效应,得到日食引起较低高度上的光化学作用减弱以及输运过程改变等电离层效应的图像,发现较低高度上的光化学过程随着日食的结束而得到恢复,而日食对输运过程造成的影响在食甚之后约2h表现得最为强烈.对同时得到的垂直总电子含量(QTEC)的纬度-时间分布图进行分析也得到与此相应的结果. 相似文献
6.
利用一个电离层理论模式，模拟了太阳活动低年、地磁宁静情况下，中低纬和赤道地区电离层F2区峰值电子浓度(NmF2)的半年变化规律，重点讨论了电离层电场对NmF2半年变化的影响.模拟结果表明，当输入的电场没有周年和半年变化时，磁赤道地区电离层NmF2本身就具有一定的半年变化特征，而在稍高的纬度上，NmF2半年变化的强度较弱.当输入的电场具有一定的半年变化时，电离层NmF2的半年变化强度有明显的改变，且这种改变随地方时和地磁纬度不同有明显的差别.在地磁赤道附近的电离层赤道槽地区，从上午到午夜的时间内，具有半年变化的电场对电离层NmF2半年变化的强度是减弱的作用，在其他的时间内，电场对电离层NmF2半年变化强度是加强的作用.而在稍高纬度的电离层驼峰地区，情况明显不同.从上午一直到翌日日出前，具有半年变化的电场对电离层NmF2半年变化的幅度都是加强的作用.在其他的时间内，电场对电离层NmF2半年变化的幅度是减弱的作用.同时，研究表明电离层电场对NmF2半年变化的作用和“赤道喷泉”现象强烈相关. 相似文献
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8.
国际GNSS服务组织(International GNSS Services,IGS)发布的全球电离层TEC格网(Global lonospheric Map,GIM)是利用GNSS进行电离层研究的主要数据源之一.IGS电离层工作组于2016年2月正式授予中国科学院为全球第五个电离层数据分析中心,由测量与地球物理研究所和光电研究院联合实施.本文系统地总结和展示了IGS电离层工作组对各分析中心GIM评估的结果;此次评估以基准站实测电离层TEC、测高卫星电离层TEC为参考,给出了各分析中心1998-2015年GIM的总体性能.结果显示:随着IGS基准站日益增多,各分析中心GIM内符合精度由4.5~7.0TECu提升至2.5-3.5TECu;不同分析中心GIM一致性从3.0~4.5TECu提升至2.0~3.5TECu;相对于测高卫星电离层数据,CODE、CAS、JPL和UPC分析中心的GIM精度相对较高(约4.0~4.5TECu),但是在不同测高卫星评估结果之间存在不同的系统性偏差. 相似文献
9.
对国内外电离层参数短期预报方法进行了综述,重点介绍了几种作者最新研究的电离层foF2参数短期预报方法.包括基于混沌时间序列分析的电离层foF2参数提前15 min(分钟)准实时预测方法、基于人工神经网络技术的提前1 h(小时)现报方法、提前1～3 d(天)的神经网络预测方法、相似日短期预报方法以及综合预报模型方法.利用中国垂测站多年的观测数据对各种算法的预测精度进行了评估,并与国内外相关算法进行了定性或定量比较,各种预报方法都在前人的预报精度基础之上有了一定的提高.其中提前15 min(分钟)预测方法平均相对误差小于4%,平均绝对误差小于0.2 MHz,可以用于实时性和精度要求较高的短波系统;提前1小时预报方法在太阳活动高年平均预测相对误差小于6%,均方根误差小于0.6 MHz,太阳活动低年平均预测相对误差小于10%,均方根误差小于0.5 MHz,平均相对误差比前人研究的自相关方法提高3个百分点左右;对于提前1～3 d(天)短期预报,综合预报模型方法充分利用了神经网络方法、自相关方法以及相似日方法的优点,获得了高于任何一种单一方法的精度,对于中国9个垂测站(海口、广州、重庆、拉萨、兰州、北京、乌鲁木齐、长春、满洲里)在不同太阳活动性条件下的历史数据进行了精度测试,提前1天和提前3天预测的平均相对误差分别小于10%和小于15%,达到了国内先进水平.此外,该方法还可以综合更多预报方法,具有进一步提高预报精度的潜力.文中提出的针对不同尺度进行电离层参数预测的方法具有一定的理论基础,且精度高、易实现,对从事电离层短期预报算法研究及相关专业的学者具有一定的参考价值. 相似文献
10.
本文尝试结合非相干散射雷达和GPS TEC观测数据提取等离子体层总电子含量(PTEC).我们首先描述所用的技术方法,然后具体利用了Millstone Hill台站的观测数据研究该地区上空等离子体层总电子含量(PTEC)的变化情况.我们采用变化标高的Chapman函数对非相干散射雷达测得的电子浓度剖面数据进行拟合,然后通过对剖面积分得到100 km到1000 km高度范围的电离层总电子含量.GPS提供的TEC数据为高度达20200 km的总电子含量,两者之差可近似看成等离子体层的电子含量.本文分别选取太阳活动高年(2000, 2002年)和太阳活动低年(2005,2008年)Millstone Hill台站的静日数据进行研究.结果表明,等离子体层电子含量及其所占GPS TEC的比例具有明显的周日变化.PTEC含量在白天高于夜间,而所占GPS TEC的百分比,夜间明显高于白天.太阳活动高年所选月份等离子体层电子含量在4~14 TECU (1TECU=1016el/m2) 范围内变化,夜间所占比例可达60%左右.太阳活动低年所选月份等离子体层电子含量在3~7 TECU范围内变化,所占比例夜间最高可达80%左右.我们所得到的结果与前人基于其它观测手段所得结果在变化趋势上一致,在量级上也大致相当.因此,这从一个侧面证明了我们所用方法的可靠性.非相干散射雷达能够探测包括F2层峰值以下及以上高度的电子浓度,利用这一设备所观测得到的资料来推算电离层电子含量将比前人基于电离层垂测仪观测资料进行的推算更具真实性,由此得到的等离子体层电子含量也将更为接近真实情况. 相似文献
11.
R. Orús M. Hernndez-Pajares J. M. Juan J. Sanz M. García-Fernndez 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2002,64(18)
The existence of a worldwide international GPS service (IGS) permanent network of dual-frequency receivers makes the computation of global ionospheric maps (GIMs) of total electron content (TEC) feasible. The GIMs computed by the IGS Associate Analysis Centers on a daily basis and by other kinds of forecast GIMs, which can be computed from, for instance, the international reference ionosphere (IRI) model, and the GPS broadcast models in the navigation message, can be applied to a broad diversity of fields, for instance as, navigation and time transfer.In this context, the performance of different kinds of models are presented in order to determine the accuracy of the different GIM. This is carried out by comparison with the TOPEX data that provides an independent and precise (at the level of few TECU) vertical TEC determination over the oceans and seas. Thus, the obtained accuracies, in terms of global relative error, ranging from 54% corresponding to the GPS broadcast model, to about 41% corresponding to IRI climatological model, and to less than 30% corresponding to GPS data driven models. 相似文献
12.
A Neural Network model has been developed for estimating the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere. TEC is proportional
to the delay suffered by electromagnetic signals crossing the ionosphere and is among the errors that impact GNSS (Global
Navigation Satellite Systems) observations. Ionospheric delay is particularly a problem for single frequency receivers, which
cannot eliminate the (first-order) ionospheric delay by combining observations at two frequencies. Single frequency users
rely on applying corrections based on prediction models or on regional models formed based on actual data collected by a network
of receivers. A regional model based on a neural network has been designed and tested using data sets collected by the Brazilian
GPS Network (RMBC) covering periods of low and high solar activity. Analysis of the results indicates that the model is capable
of recovering, on average, 85% of TEC values. 相似文献
13.
《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》1999,61(3-4):299-307
Measurements at GPS ground stations of the International GPS Service (IGS) havebeen used to derive the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere over Europe and overthree North American stations for the 6–11 January 1997 storm event. The derived TEC dataindicate large deviations from the average behaviour especially at high latitudes on thenight-side/early morning longitude sector.The high-latitude perturbation causes a well-pronounced positive phase on the day-sidesector over Europe.Both meridional winds as well as transient electric fields are assumed to contribute to thesignature of the ionospheric perturbation propagating from high to low latitudes. Theobservations indicate a subsequent enhanced plasma loss which is probably due to theequatorward expansion of storm induced composition changes. 相似文献
14.
When travelling through the ionosphere the signals of space-based radio navigation systems such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) are subject to modifications in amplitude, phase and polarization. In particular, phase changes due to refraction lead to propagation errors of up to 50 m for single-frequency GPS users. If both the LI and the L2 frequencies transmitted by the GPS satellites are measured, first-order range error contributions of the ionosphere can be determined and removed by difference methods. The ionospheric contribution is proportional to the total electron content (TEC) along the ray path between satellite and receiver. Using about ten European GPS receiving stations of the International GPS Service for Geodynamics (IGS), the TEC over Europe is estimated within the geographic ranges –20° 40°E and 32.5° ø 70°N in longitude and latitude, respectively. The derived TEC maps over Europe contribute to the study of horizontal coupling and transport processes during significant ionospheric events. Due to their comprehensive information about the high-latitude ionosphere, EISCAT observations may help to study the influence of ionospheric phenomena upon propagation errors in GPS navigation systems. Since there are still some accuracy limiting problems to be solved in TEC determination using GPS, data comparison of TEC with vertical electron density profiles derived from EISCAT observations is valuable to enhance the accuracy of propagation-error estimations. This is evident both for absolute TEC calibration as well as for the conversion of ray-path-related observations to vertical TEC. The combination of EISCAT data and GPS-derived TEC data enables a better understanding of large-scale ionospheric processes. 相似文献
15.
A comparison of the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere calculated using different correcting multipliers in the
IRI2007 model with experimental data indicates that this model, which is not empirical with respect to the TEC, does not adequately
reflect the quantitative and qualitative features of the TEC behavior. The situation can be improved by using new empirical
models of the critical frequency and equivalent thickness of the ionosphere and new methods for determining the TEC. 相似文献
16.
Dual-frequency global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) observations provide most of the input data for development of global ionosphere map (GIM) of vertical total electron content (VTEC). The international GNSS service (IGS) develops different ionosphere products. The IGS tracking network stations are not homogeneously distributed around the world. The large gaps of this network in Middle East, e.g., Iran plateau, reduce the accuracy of the IGS GIMs over this region. Empirical ionosphere models, such as international reference ionosphere (IRI), also provide coarse forecasts of the VTEC values. This paper presents a new regional VTEC model based on the IRI 2007 and global positioning system (GPS) observations from Iranian Permanent GPS Network. The model consists of a given reference part from IRI model and an unknown correction term. Compactly supported base functions are more appropriate than spherical harmonics in regional ionosphere modeling. Therefore, an unknown correction term was expanded in terms of B-spline functions. The obtained results are validated through comparison with the observed VTEC derived from GPS observations. 相似文献
17.
基于国际全球定位服务中心(International GPS Service,IGS)提供的120°E 上空1999-2009年IONEX格式电离层电子浓度总含量(TEC)资料,分析赤道电离异常驼峰区TEC峰值Inc和Isc的年变化和季节变化以及与太阳、地磁活动的相关性.在11年时间尺度上,Inc和Isc与太阳辐射P指数的日均值有较好的相关性(r=0.90和r=0.84),而与地磁活动指数Dst、Kp和Ap日均值的相关性均不好.驼峰区TEC峰值Inc和Isc都是在北半球春、秋季出现极大值,而且冬季值大于夏季值,即Inc呈现"半年异常"和"冬季异常"现象,我们认为Inc和Isc相似的半年变化特征是与赤道上空电离层电急流相关的东向电场半年变化导致的.利用支持向量回归方法构建了EIA指数的预报模型,预报试验结果表明,该预报模型能较准确地描述Inc和Isc的变化,对南北驼峰TEC峰值预报的平均相对误差分别为22.96%和10.2%.基于支持向量机回归的预测方法为赤道电离异常特征指数预报的实现提供一条有效方法途径和好的应用前景. 相似文献
18.
本文给出了一个基于Gauss-Markov卡尔曼滤波的电离层数据同化系统的初步构建和试验结果.我们选择中国及周边地区部分涉及电离层观测的台站(包括子午工程台站、中国地壳形变网和部分IGS台站)作为观测系统进行模拟试验,背景场利用IRI模式,观测值则由NeQuick模式计算得到.我们的同化结果表明,采用Kalman滤波算法,把部分斜TEC同化到背景模式当中,能够获得较好的同化结果,说明我们设计的算法可行、所选择的各种参数比较合理,采用Gauss-Markov假设进行短期预报也取得了较合理的结果.本项研究经过进一步的改进和完善,可以用来对中国地区的电离层进行现报和短期预报,一方面满足相关空间工程应用,另一方面可以提升现有观测系统的科学意义. 相似文献
19.
O. V. Zolotov A. A. Namgaladze I. E. Zakharenkova O. V. Martynenko I. I. Shagimuratov 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2012,52(3):390-397
The paper presents the results of studying anomalous variations in the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere as probable precursors of strong seismic events. The vertical drift of the F2 layer’s ionospheric plasma under the effect of seismically generated zonal electric field is considered as a likely reason for the observed variations in the TEC. An estimation of this drift effects is made by mathematical simulation utilizing the global numerical model of the Earth’s upper atmosphere (UAM). Midlatitude ionospheric effects were simulated. Two types of seismogenerated electric fields (dipole and monopole) were used with various magnitudes and spatial configurations. The derived results were compared with the TEC data of GPS observations from the IGS for the Kitira earthquake in southern Greece (January 8, 2006; M 6.8). It was shown that variations generated by additional sources of the dipole type are consistent with the observed data; monopole-type sources did not reproduce some typical peculiarities of these observations and systematically underestimated the deviation value. 相似文献