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对青岛市地震前兆观测现状及成因进行了系统分析,提出了青岛市地震前兆工作发展和数字化地震前兆台网建设的建议,希望对地震前兆工作发展有所帮助。 相似文献
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Statistical estimates of earthquake magnitudes are unreliable when based onvery few historical data. Additional sources of information, such asgeological data, are then necessary to update estimates of seismicityparameters. The Bayesian probability theory is a tool to combine priorinformation of seismicity obtained from geological data with historicalobservations. This theory is tested in the case of the Inner Messiniakosfault zone, southern Greece, for the estimation of the probability ofoccurrence of strong earthquakes. Prior estimates of seismicity aredeveloped from slip rate measurements, obtained from offsets of geologicalformations, on the basis of both onshore and offshore neotectonic data.The analysis emphasizes the importance of the input seismicity parameters,particularly the significance of the upper bound magnitude in the estimationof the seismic potential of active faults. 相似文献
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与以往的震例相对相对比,１９９８年宁蒗６．２级地震的短临前兆异常,既有异常幅度大,空间分布上受活动性断裂带控制,时间进程上是准同步起伏,前兆异常与震兆异常配套出现,策观异常与宏观异常配套出现等共性;又有前兆异常十分丰富,异常的空间分布集中,震后效庆十分平衡等个性。 相似文献
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大量观测事实表明 ,赋存于地壳深部的流体 (水、气、油 )作为弹性介质 ,对深层地壳应力的分布、变化、转移过程及地震孕育、发生等有着较为灵敏的反映。地震的形成与区域构造应力活动强度密切相关 ,这种大范围的区域应力作用会形成多个应力集中点 ,在众多应力集中点上可产生地下流体前兆异常变化。在对新疆地下流体数十年的监测中 ,发现强震前出现大量与地震有关的由区域构造应力活动引起的前兆异常 ,异常范围广且种类繁多 ,它们在成因、特征上与震源应力活动的前兆异常明显不同 ;这种地下水位地震前兆异常场 ,不能完全孤立地与单个地震事件相对应 ,应充分考虑到它与一组或系列地震有关 ,而这些地震往往与块体挤压、断裂活动等区域性的应力活动有关。因此 ,正确区分并掌握其不同的特性 ,对地震预报具有一定的意义 相似文献
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中国地震地下流体监测系统的现状与展望 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
本文对我国地震地下流体监测系统的观测台网、观测项目、观测仪器、观测效能等的现状作了较详尽的论述，明确指出地下流体所观测的前兆信息十分丰富，映震灵敏，预报效能好，在地震预报和为国民经济服务中有很大潜力，同时也探讨了我国地震地下流体监测系统中存在的主要问题，提出了解决的办法，对今后的发展方向进行了展望。文中提出建立多层次的地下流体监测体系，加强地下流体综合观测，强化地下流体观测网的科学性，优化观测项目，逐步实现观测技术现代化，特别强调要大力开展基础理论研究与国际合作，不断提高我国地震地下流体监测预报的研究水平。 相似文献
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Two kinds of seismic gaps 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
Kiyoo Mogi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1979,117(6):1172-1186
The same term seismic gaps has been used for different kinds of seismic gaps, resulting in some confusion. It is shown that there are two kinds of seismic gaps which are defined by two different features of seismic activity. One is a gap in the spatial distribution of rupture zones of the largest earthquakes in a seismic belt. This is termed a seismic gap of the first kind. A seismic gap of the first kind could be identified not only for great shallow earthquakes along plate boundaries, but also probably for smaller intra-plate earthquakes. The other is a gap in seismicity of smaller-magnitude earthquakes before larger earthquakes. This premonitory phenomenon is termed a seismic gap of the second kind. Focal regions of the largest earthquakes in an active seismic belt are frequently seismic gaps of both the first and the second kind. Some earthquakes, however, are not preceded by any appreciable premonitory gap (the second kind). This different feature in different cases may depend on the structural states of the earth's crust, such as heterogeneity. 相似文献
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在重力固体潮地震前兆分析中引入HHT时频分析新方法.结合HHT的优越性、固体潮的特点和地震的非平稳过程特性,设计重力固体潮地震前兆分析的瞬时频率特征参数;以相应理论计算值作为参照背景,研究固体潮的震前变化特征.昆明、下关的震例分析表明, 的确存在瞬时频率特征参数的震前变化,且具短期、同步正异常特征;瞬时频率特征参数具有明确的物理意义,其震前变化反映了地震非平稳过程对理论重力固体潮的影响. 相似文献
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We analyse the seismic catalogue of the local earthquakes which occurred at Somma-Vesuvius volcano in the past three decades (1972–2000). The seismicity in this period can be described as composed of a background level, characterised by a low and rather uniform rate of energy release and by sporadic periods of increased seismic activity. Such relatively intense seismicity periods are characterised by energy rates and magnitudes progressively increasing in the critical periods. The analysis of the b value in the whole period evidences a well-defined pattern, with values of b progressively decreasing, from about 1.8 at the beginning of the considered period, to about 1.0 at present. This steady variation indicates an increasing dynamics in the volcanic system. Within this general trend it is possible to identify a substructure in the time sequence of the seismic events, formed by the alternating episodes of quiescence and activity. The analysis of the source moment tensor of the largest earthquakes shows that the processes at the seismic source are generally not consistent with simple double-couples, but that they are compatible with isotropic components, mostly indicating volumetric expansion. These components are shown to be statistically significant for most of the analysed events. Such focal mechanisms can be interpreted as the effect of explosion phenomena, possibly related to volatile exsolution from the crystallising magma. The availability of a reduced amount of high quality data necessary for the inversion of the source moment tensor, the still limited period of systematic observation of Vesuvius micro-earthquakes and, above all, the absence of eruptive events during such interval of time, cannot obviously permit the outlining of any formal premonitory signal. Nevertheless, the analysis reported in this paper indicates a progressively evolving dynamics, characterised by a generally increasing trend in the seismic activity in the volcanic system and by a significant volumetric component of recent major events, thus posing serious concern for a future evolution towards eruptive activity. 相似文献
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复地震道分析又称三瞬分析,该分析方法可将反映地震信号局部变化情况的地震波的瞬时振幅、瞬时相位和瞬时频率等信息分离开.本文应用Hilbert变换求解虚地震记录,用复地震道分析方法求取"三瞬"信息,并用该方法计算了理论合成地震记录的瞬时振幅、瞬时相位和瞬时频率,获得了较好的效果.同时,本文也利用该方法对某区块实际地震资料进行了处理,结果表明,复地震道分析方法获得的"三瞬"信息可反映地震信号的局部变化,有助于进行地震薄互层分析,并能提高数据的解释精度. 相似文献
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为分析总结地面与井下地震观测系统的特点,以赤峰中心地震台地面与井下观测系统为研究对象,在噪声分析、噪声功率谱分析、地震监测能力和观测动态范围等方面进行分析。结果表明,2套观测系统的RMS均可达到Ⅱ级环境地噪声水平,井下观测系统噪声小于地面观测系统。对2套观测系统的功率谱密度、有效动态范围的对比均表明,井下观测系统的动态范围比地面观测系统超出约10%,因此,井下观测系统地震监测能力优于地面观测系统,井下观测系统能更有效地记录观测数据。 相似文献
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列车在高铁上运行能够产生大量的高铁地震事件,这些地震事件既包含了作为震源的列车本身的结构信息,也蕴含了高铁线路的地质环境信息.本文提出了一种频率-空间-时间(FXT)属性描述大量高铁地震事件之间的关联.在FXT属性上,高铁地震信号之间的关联表征为在频率坐标轴F上相互对齐、在空间位置坐标轴X和事件到达时间坐标轴T上连续变化的分立谱线.本文对课题组在深圳为期两天的观测采集得到的4500余条高铁地震信号进行了FXT属性的提取,并对FXT属性进行了统计特性的分析:方差分析表明,高铁线路的地质环境的变化对高铁地震信号特征的影响大于不同列车的结构差异对高铁地震信号特征的影响;聚类分析表明,高铁地震信号的特征按接收点位置能够无监督地聚类为和高铁线路途经地质环境相关联的不同类别.通过上述分析表明,高铁地震信号中蕴含着丰富的可解释的高铁运行地质环境信息,具备对高铁列车运行安全进行监测的潜力. 相似文献
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In the Upper Silesian Coal Field the seismic hazard induced by mining operations in collieries is closely related to the rockburst hazard. A seismic method is used for premonitory recognition of the zones of seismic hazard. It takes advantage of the relationship between the velocity of propagation of seismic waves and the state of stress existing in the rock. It consists of the determination of the velocity field of artificially induced seismic waves in a studied fragment of the rock, and of locating the velocity anomaly. The position of the velocity anomaly zones and their intensity are the basis for estimating the seismic hazard in advance of mining works. 相似文献
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基于数据跟踪分析河北电磁台网环境干扰因素 总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0
以河北电磁台网2008—2016年地震前兆数据跟踪分析产品信息为数据源,归纳该台网主要环境干扰因素,主要干扰表现为降雨、高压直流输电、农田灌溉3种类型,约占干扰因素约88.47%。分析各类干扰因素成因、动态曲线变化特征,提取并总结电磁台网环境干扰典型实例及变化特征,为地震前兆异常变化地准确判断提供有效实例支持与技术参考;根据干扰成因和观测经验,通过同场地增加气象三要素观测可快速识别降雨干扰,通过地埋观测外线路、地磁场深井观测方式可避免或减小干扰,为排除环境干扰,探索抑制干扰的新方法服务。 相似文献
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This paper describes a methodology to incorporate vague information, based upon heuristic knowledge and expertise, into the conventional probabilistic approach for the seismic hazard analysis.
The interval analysis method is introduced to process interval information with interpretation from Dempster and Shafer's evidence theory. The Vertex Method is discussed to handle fuzzy information which is a generalization of interval information.
These methods, along with the current approach of seismic hazard analysis, are used to assess the seismic hazard for the San Francisco Bay Area in California and to provide information for deciding strengthening policy of existing buildings. 相似文献
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本文提出了一种震源孕育的数学物理模式,该模式把孕震过程分为扩容,包体形成与发展、流体扩散、失稳四个阶段。用数学物理方法研究了沿断裂带定向的圆柱形孕震区内的孕震过程。通过对这一过程的研究,得出了各孕震阶段持续时间的计算公式。计算结果与波速异常的实际观测结果符合较好。此外,还从理论上研究了确定两相介质中地震波传播速度的问题,给出了P、S波速度与速度比的计算公式,得出了一些定量结果。根据所述结果,对震前地震波速度异常的某些特征(异常持续时间、异常区形状大小及异常幅度)作出了一定的理论解释。最后,用量纲分析和相似理论方法对影响波速异常的一些因素作了简单的讨论。 相似文献
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随着前兆观测系统的数字化和自动化的不断发展，数据量也大大丰富，完全靠人工已不可能完成数据的及时检查与分析。利用2种常用的方法：长短窗比值法和N倍均方差法对前兆数据进行实时处理，并对数据异常情况进行预告警。 相似文献