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Seismologists have begun to investigate the earthquake damage and assess the economic losses on the spot in the Yunnan area since the earthquakes with Ms6.7 and Ms6.9 that occurred on the boundary between China and Myanmar west of Menglian county, Yunnan Province, on April 23, 1992. From 1992 to 2003, 50 destructive earthquakes occurred in Yunnan, and large amounts of data on seismic hazard have been accumulated. With focus on the major building structures, the paper makes statistical analysis on the earthquake damage ratio, loss ratio and seismic hazard index in the areas with different seismic intensity of the 50 events, and presents the seismic hazard matrix of buildings for the Yunnan area. 相似文献
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A probabilistic framework for correlated seismic downtime and repair cost estimation of geo‐structures 
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下载免费PDF全文 Abdollah Shafieezadeh Reginald DesRoches Glenn J. Rix Stuart D. Werner 《地震工程与结构动力学》2014,43(5):739-757
An important component of probabilistic risk assessment methods is the development of models to quantify the direct consequences of damage to geo‐structural components for a given intensity of the hazard. This paper presents a general probabilistic framework for correlated repair cost and downtime estimation of geo‐structures exposed to seismic hazards. The framework uses as input the results of nonlinear time‐history analysis of geo‐structures for the set of earthquake records that are representative of the seismic hazard models for the region of interest. The repair cost and downtime are estimated for individual earthquakes probabilistically considering the uncertainties associated with damage states. In addition, the formulation of the repair cost and downtime accounts for the reduction in the repair requirements as the number of damaged components in the given damage state increases. An analytical linear and two bilinear regression models are proposed for conditional correlated seismic repair cost and downtime estimation of geo‐structures given the intensity measure. The proposed framework is demonstrated by developing seismic repair models of a typical pile‐supported wharf structure on the west coast of the United States. The presented framework is general and can be applied to other types of geo‐structures and hazards and can include other decision variables such as loss of life as well. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Depths of earthquake occurrence and large slip distribution are critical for seismic hazard assessment.Numerous examples show that earthquakes with similar magnitudes,however,can result in significantly different ground shaking and damage.One of the critical factors is that whether the large slip was generated near the ground surface.In this article,we reviewed two aspects that are important on this regard,shallow slip deficit and nucleation depth.Understanding how shallow future earthquakes may nucleate in particular regions,such as shale gas fields,is critical for hazard assessment.Whether or not a strong earthquake may slip significantly at shallow depths(less than 3 km)plays crucial rules in seismic hazard preparation and should be further investigated by integrating high-resolution fault zone observations,dynamic rupture simulation,and fault zone properties.Moreover,precisely resolving shallow depth and slip distribution of earthquakes demands InSAR and/or other image data that can better capture the near-fault deformation to constrain the source parameters of earthquakes. 相似文献
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V. I. Osipov V. I. Larionov S. P. Sushchev N. I. Frolova A. N. Ugarov S. V. Kozharinov T. V. Barskaya 《Water Resources》2016,43(7):982-997
Earthquakes, among other natural phenomena, often cause loss of life and significant economic damage. According to the statistical data of the International Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (www.cred.be), earthquakes are among the leaders in all aspects: the number of fatalities, the number of injured, and the caused economic loss. The widely accepted strategy for reducing the damage and social losses implies preventive measures in high-risk zones identified by mapping with different details. About 5% of RF territory is referred to the areas characterized by a high level of seismic hazard, where earthquakes with intensities I = 8–9 and 9–10 by the MMSK-86 scale may occur. The Caucasus is among the most hazardous and densely populated regions in the country. During the preparation to the 2014 Olympic Games, the individual seismic risk was assessed for the Greater Sochi territory including the Olympic sites. The paper analyzes the results of seismic risk monitoring, obtained in 2007 and 2013. 相似文献
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水库地震由于具有震源浅、震级小但破坏较同等级的天然地震重的特点,其地震烈度衰减关系在水库地震灾害预测中有着十分重要的研究意义。然而,由于水库地震事件数量少,历史震例往往缺乏地面烈度调查资料,这给研究工作带来了相当大的难度。为了解决资料不足的问题,文中采用聚类分析的方法,从丰富的天然地震中选择可与水库地震灾害类比的震例,把其烈度资料引入衰减模型进行回归分析,得到了新的地震烈度衰减关系;并与已有的研究成果和天然地震的烈度衰减进行比较,证明了这种方法具有合理性,所得到的水库地震烈度在近场普遍比天然地震烈度高,但由于加入了天然地震资料使得结果比已有水库地震烈度衰减慢且震中烈度稍低 相似文献
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Loss ratio, which is the ratio of the repair cost to the total replacement cost, is an effective parameter for representing structural and nonstructural damage caused by earthquakes. A probabilistic loss estimation framework is first presented that directly relates hazard to response and hence to losses. A key feature of the loss estimation approach is the determination of losses without need for customary fragility curves. Relationships between intensity measures and engineering demand parameters are used to define the demand model. An empirically calibrated loss model in the form of a power curve with upper and lower cut‐offs is used in conjunction with the demand model to estimate loss ratios. Loss ratios for each of the damage states take into account epistemic uncertainty and an effect on price surge following a major hazardous event. The loss model is calibrated and validated for bridges designed based on the prevailing Caltrans, Japan, and New Zealand standards. The loss model is then transformed to provide a composite seismic hazard–loss relationship that is used to estimate the expected annual loss for structures. The closed‐form four‐step stochastic loss estimation model is applied to the bridges designed for ductility. Results of these ductile designs are compared to a bridge detailed to an emerging damage avoidance design philosophy. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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New predictive equations for Arias intensity from crustal earthquakes in New Zealand 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Arias Intensity (Arias, MIT Press, Cambridge MA, pp 438–483, 1970) is an important measure of the strength of a ground motion,
as it is able to simultaneously reflect multiple characteristics of the motion in question. Recently, the effectiveness of
Arias Intensity as a predictor of the likelihood of damage to short-period structures has been demonstrated, reinforcing the
utility of Arias Intensity for use in both structural and geotechnical applications. In light of this utility, Arias Intensity
has begun to be considered as a ground-motion measure suitable for use in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and
earthquake loss estimation. It is therefore timely to develop predictive equations for this ground-motion measure. In this
study, a suite of four predictive equations, each using a different functional form, is derived for the prediction of Arias
Intensity from crustal earthquakes in New Zealand. The provision of a suite of models is included to allow for epistemic uncertainty
to be considered within a PSHA framework. Coefficients are presented for four different horizontal-component definitions for
each of the four models. The ground-motion dataset for which the equations are derived include records from New Zealand crustal
earthquakes as well as near-field records from worldwide crustal earthquakes. The predictive equations may be used to estimate
Arias Intensity for moment magnitudes between 5.1 and 7.5 and for distances (both rjb and rrup) up to 300 km. 相似文献
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Modelling Seismic Hazard in Earthquake Loss Models with Spatially Distributed Exposure 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The prediction of possible future losses from earthquakes, which in many cases affect structures that are spatially distributed over a wide area, is of importance to national authorities, local governments, and the insurance and reinsurance industries. Generally, it is necessary to estimate the effects of many, or even all, potential earthquake scenarios that could impact upon these urban areas. In such cases, the purpose of the loss calculations is to estimate the annual frequency of exceedance (or the return period) of different levels of loss due to earthquakes: so-called loss exceedance curves. An attractive option for generating loss exceedance curves is to perform independent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment calculations at several locations simultaneously and to combine the losses at each site for each annual frequency of exceedance. An alternative method involves the use of multiple earthquake scenarios to generate ground motions at all sites of interest, defined through Monte–Carlo simulations based on the seismicity model. The latter procedure is conceptually sounder but considerably more time-consuming. Both procedures are applied to a case study loss model and the loss exceedance curves and average annual losses are compared to ascertain the influence of using a more theoretically robust, though computationally intensive, procedure to represent the seismic hazard in loss modelling.An erratum to this article can be found at 相似文献
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Influence of ground-motion correlation on probabilistic assessments of seismic hazard and loss: sensitivity analysis 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Recent studies have shown that the proper treatment of ground-motion variability and, particularly, the correlation of ground
motion are essential for the estimation of the seismic hazard, damage and loss for distributed portfolios. In this work we
compared the effects of variations in the between-earthquake correlation and in the site-to-site correlation on probabilistic
estimations of seismic damage and loss for the extended objects (hypothetical portfolio) and critical elements (e.g. bridges)
of a network. Taiwan Island has been chosen as a test case for this study because of relatively high seismicity and previous
experience in earthquake hazard modelling. The hazard and loss estimations were performed using Monte Carlo approach on the
basis of stochastic catalogues and random ground-motion fields. We showed that the influence of correlation on parameters
of seismic hazard, characteristics of loss distribution and the probability of damage depend, on one hand, on level of hazard
and probability level of interest (return period) and, on the other hand, the relative influence of each type of correlation
is not equal. 相似文献
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A detailed study of the most significant seismic effects that took place in the city of Catania has been performed in order to build up a site catalogue, to assess seismic hazard directly from it and to provide the picture of damage scenarios which happened in the past. In the last 1000 years Catania was destroyed twice (1169 and 1693) and more or less severely damaged twelve times (e.g., 1542, 1818, 1848, etc.). Destruction or severe damage are mainly related to earthquakes occurring in the coastal sector of the Hyblean foreland, while slighter, moderate effects are usually due to earthquakes taking place in the seismogenic sources of the Messina Straits and in the inner Hyblean region. The analysis of the historical reports allowed to delineate the damage scenarios of the most relevant events. In particular, for the 1693 case-history it has also been possible to map the damage distribution with reference to the existing urban settlement of the city. The site catalogue was used for assessing seismic hazard; the obtained estimates show that the probability of occurrence for intensity 7 and 10 exceeds 99.9% for 150 and 500 years, respectively. These values, associated with the high vulnerability caused by the city growth which occurred mainly before the introduction of the seismic code (1981) and without ad-hoc planning policies, implies that the urban system is exposed to high seismic risk. 相似文献
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《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2005,25(7-10):473-486
The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies. In urban centers the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of ‘Earthquake damage and Loss Scenarios’. The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard, inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk. For the development of earthquake risk scenario in Tashkent–Uzbekistan and Bishkek–Kyrgyzstan an approach based on spectral displacements is utilized. This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study, highlight the methodology, discuss the results and provide insights to the future developments. 相似文献
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Many uncertainty factors need be dealt with in the prediction of seismic hazard for a 10-year period.Restricted by these uncertainties,the result of prediction is also uncertain to a certain extent,so the probabilistic analysis method of seismic hazard should be adopted.In consideration of the inhomogeneity of the time,location,and magnitude of future earthquakes and the probabilistic combination of the background of long-term seismic hazard(geology,geophysical field,etc.)and the precursors of earthquake occurrence,a model of probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in a period of 10 years s proposed.Considering the inhomogeneity of data and earthquake precursors for different regions in China,a simplified model is also proposed in order to satisfy the needs of different regions around the country.A trial in North China is used to discuss the application of the model.The method proposed in this paper can be used in the probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in a period of 10 years.According to the 相似文献
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The linked column frame (LCF) system is proposed as a seismic load resisting system that uses conventional components to limit seismic damage to relatively easily replaced elements. The LCF features a primary lateral system, denoted the linked column, which is made up of dual columns connected with replaceable links, and a secondary flexible moment frame system with beams having fully restrained connections at one end and simple connections at the other. The linked columns are designed to limit seismic forces and provide energy dissipation via link yielding, while preventing damage to the moment frame under certain earthquake hazard levels. A design procedure is proposed that ensures plastic hinges develop in the links of the linked columns at a significantly lower story drift than when plastic hinges develop in the moment frame beams. The large drift difference helps enable design of this system for two distinct performance states: rapid return to occupancy, where only link damage occurs and relatively simple link replacement is possible, and collapse prevention, where both the links and the beams of the moment frame may be damaged. A series of 3‐story, 6‐story, and 9‐story prototype LCF buildings were designed using the proposed design approach. Nonlinear models were developed for the designs with the link models validated using recent experimental results. The seismic response of these systems was investigated for ground motions representing various seismic hazard levels. Results show that the LCF system not only provides collapse prevention, but also has the capability of limiting economic loss by reducing structural damage and allowing for rapid return to occupancy following earthquakes with shorter return periods. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Modern engineering design methods require ground motion time histories as input for non-linear dynamic structural analysis. Non-linear dynamic methods of analysis are increasingly applied in the context of probabilistic risk assessments and for cost-effective design of critical infrastructures. In current engineering practice artificial time histories matching deterministic design spectra or probabilistic uniform hazard spectra are most frequently used for engineering analysis. The intermediate step of generation of response spectra can lead to a biased estimate of the potential damage from earthquakes because of insufficient consideration of the true energy content and strong motion duration of earthquakes. Thus, assessment of seismic risk may seem unrealistic. An engineering approach to the development of three-component ground motion time histories has been established which enables consideration of the typical characteristics of seismic sources, regional ground motion attenuation, and the main geotechnical characteristics of the target site. Therefore, the approach is suitable for use in scenario-based risk analysis a larger number of time histories are required for representation of the seismic hazard. Near-field effects are implemented in the stochastic source model using engineering approximations. The approach is suggested for use in areas of low seismicity where ground motion records of larger earthquakes are not available. Uncertainty analysis indicates that ground motions generated by individual earthquakes are well constrained and that the usual lognormal model is not the best choice for predicting the upper tail of the distribution of the ground motions. 相似文献
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Ioanna Ioannou Bjarni Bessason Ioannis Kosmidis Jón Örvar Bjarnason Tiziana Rossetto 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(12):5875-5903
In June 2000, two Mw6.5 earthquakes occurred within a 4-day interval in the largest agricultural region of Iceland causing substantial damage and no loss of life. The distance between the earthquake epicentres and the fault rupture was approximately 15 km. Nearly 5000 low-rise residential buildings were affected, some of which were located between the faults and exposed to strong ground motion from both events. The post-earthquakes damage and repair costs for every residential building in the epicentral region were assessed for insurance purposes. The database is detailed and complete for the whole region and represents one of the best quality post-earthquake vulnerability datasets used for seismic loss estimation. Nonetheless, the construction of vulnerability curves from this database is hampered by the fact that the loss values represent the cumulative damage from two sequential earthquakes in some areas, and single earthquakes in others. A novel methodology based on beta regression is proposed here in order to define the geographical limits on areas where buildings sustained cumulative damage and predict the seismic losses for future sequence of events in each area. The results show that the average building loss in areas affected by a single event is below 10% of the building replacement value, whilst this increases to an average of 25% in areas affected by the two earthquakes. The proposed methodology can be used to empirically assess the vulnerability in other areas which experienced sequence of events such as Emilia-Romagna (Italy) in 2012. 相似文献
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城市所处的地震危险性环境和城市建筑物的易损性是影响复杂网络建筑物强震环境下抗毁能力的关键因素。由于现阶段对建筑物抗震抗毁能力的评定仍存在一定困难,对建筑物震害程度测评只能通过强震之后建筑物受破坏的程度进行评估,且评估结果不够精准,因此提出基于复杂网络的建筑物抗震能力的评估方法。考虑到地震中的危险性因素,以地面峰值加速度为参数对强震环境下复杂网络建筑物抗毁性进行测评和分析,在此基础上提出对复杂网络下建筑物的防震抗毁能力进行评估的相对建筑物抗震性能指数,并结合建筑物抗震能力评估标准确定其抗震能力水平;再进行仿真实验加以测量,并结合震害经验,证实该方法的有效性。 相似文献