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1.
In the present study, an ANOVA-like inference technique is used aiming at to assess if Alentejo, southern Portugal, could be considered a homogeneous region for drought management purposes. First, Alentejo was divided into four sub-regions according to latitude (north and south), and longitude (west and east). Inside each sub-region, 10 weather stations were considered. The time series of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were obtained for these stations using precipitation data for the period 1932–1999 (67 years). Contingency tables for the transitions between SPI drought classes were obtained for these time series. Loglinear models were fitted to these contingency tables to estimate the probabilities for drought class transitions. An ANOVA-like inference was applied considering the four sub-regions like treatments of a two way layout with two factors, latitude and longitude, each one with two levels, north and south, and west and east respectively. The weather stations of each sub-region were treated as replicates. Significant differences between west and east were found, that allowed to consider that Alentejo could be composed by two sub-regions.  相似文献   

2.
Drought is a slow‐onset, creeping natural hazard which is an inevitable part of normal climate fluctuation especially in arid and semiarid regions, and its variability can be explained in terms of large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Standardized streamflow index (SSFI) was utilized to characterize hydrological drought in the west of Iran for the hydrological years of 1969–1970 to 2008–2009. The linkage of atmospheric circulation patterns (ENSO, NAO) to hydrological drought was also used to reveal relations of climate variability affecting hydrological drought. River discharges exhibited negative anomalies during the warm phase of ENSO (El Niño) which caused the extreme and severe droughts in the study area, being strongest during the hydrological years of 2007–2008 and 2008–2009. The analysis also indicated the teleconnection impact of ENSO on the hydrological drought severity in the first half of the hydrological year especially between November and March. Moreover, the concurrent and lag correlations revealed a weak relationship between the SSFI drought severity and the NAO index. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
We analyzed seasonal and annual variations of the whole layer atmospheric moisture budget and precipitation during 1961–2005 and their associations with large-scale circulation in the Yangtze River basin, China. The results indicated increasing moisture budget in summer and winter, but decreasing moisture budget in spring and autumn. Positive correlations between moisture budget and precipitation illustrate tremendous impacts the moisture budget has on the precipitation changes across the Yangtze River basin. In terms of seasonal variations, significant correlations were observed between precipitation and moisture budget in spring and autumn in the upper Yangtze River basin. Besides, we also analyzed changes of geopotential height. The positive trends of the geopotential height (850 hPa) were observed in the East Asia and the negative trends in the middle and west Pacific Ocean, indicating increasing geopotential height from south to north in east Asia which largely limited the moisture propagation to north China. While decreasing meridional geopotential height from west to east along the Yangtze River basin caused more moisture propagation from the west to the east parts of the study region, which may benefit more precipitation in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin.  相似文献   

4.
The relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events versus precipitation anomalies, and the response of seasonal precipitation to El Niño and La Niña events were investigated for 30 basins that represent a range of climatic types throughout South‐east Asia and the Pacific region. The teleconnection between ENSO and the hydroclimate is tested using both parametric and non‐parametric approaches, and the lag correlations between precipitation anomalies versus the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) several months earlier, as well as the coherence between SOI and precipitation anomalies are estimated. The analysis shows that dry conditions tend to be associated with El Niño in the southern zone, and part of the middle zone in the study area. The link between precipitation anomalies and ENSO is statistically significant in the southern zone and part of the middle zone of the study area, but significant correlation was not observed in the northern zone. Patterns of precipitation response may differ widely among basins, and even the response of a given river basin to individual ENSO events also may be changeable. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
南印度洋海温偶极子型振荡及其气候影响   总被引：23，自引：2，他引：23       下载免费PDF全文
印度洋海表温度（Sea Surface Temperature，简称SST）的方差分析和相关分析表明南印度洋也存在一个海温偶极子型振荡，并定义了一个南印度洋海表温度异常偶极子指数.夏、秋季（南半球冬、春）的南印度洋偶极子指数与后期热带500hPa和100hPa高度场异常有显著而持续的相关，在冬、春达到最大，并可以持续到次年夏、秋.前期夏、秋季节的南印度洋偶极模对次年我国大陆东部夏季降水异常有显著的影响，对应偶极子正位相，次年夏季印度洋、南海（东亚）夏季风偏弱；副高加强且南撤、西伸，南亚高压偏强且位置偏东，易形成我国长江流域降水偏多，华南降水偏少；负位相年反之.后期冬季西太平洋暖池是联系南印度洋偶极子与次年我国夏季降水异常关系的一条重要途径.南印度洋偶极子表现出了明显的独立于ENSO（El Nio Southern Oscillation，简称ENSO）的特征.  相似文献   

6.
通过对挪威卑尔根全球大气-海洋-海冰耦合模式300a控制积分结果进行交叉子波分析,揭示了东亚夏季风（EASM）与同期Nio3区（90°W～150°W,5°S～5°N）海洋表面温度异常的相关关系在长期变化中是不稳定的,呈现出明显的阶段性特征.气候要素场在二者联系的紧密（HCP）和微弱（LCP）时期差别显著,在HCP时期,西北太平洋对流层低层出现一对耦合的异常气旋和反气旋性环流系统;东南亚地区对流层低层表现为强东风异常,风速的年际变率加大;热带西太平洋对流层温度和位势高度场的年际变率普遍加强.此外,中国夏季降水与同期Nio3区海洋表面温度异常的相关关系在上述两种时期也存在较大差别.  相似文献   

7.
This study examines the 1914–2015 runoff trends and variability for 136 rivers draining British Columbia's Coast and Insular Mountains. Rivers are partitioned into eastward and westward flowing rivers based on flow direction from the Coast Mountains. Thus, eastward and westward runoff trends and influence of topography on runoff are explored. Our findings indicate that rivers flowing eastward to the Nechako and Chilcotin plateaus contribute the lowest annual runoff compared to westward rivers where runoff is high. Low interannual runoff variability is evident in westward rivers and their alpine watersheds, whereas eastward rivers exhibit high interannual runoff variability. On Vancouver Island, some of the rivers with the highest annual runoff exhibit high interannual variability. A significant (p < .05) negative correlation exists between mean annual runoff (Rm) and latitude, gauged area, mean elevation, and its corresponding coefficient of variation. However, a significant positive correlation was found between the glacierized area of mountainous regions and Rm. The mean coefficient of variation in annual runoff is significantly negatively correlated with latitude and glacierized area, but significantly positively correlated with longitude. Annual and seasonal runoff trend analyses of each river were performed for an early (1936–2015), a middle (1966–2015), and a late (1986–2015) period using the Mann–Kendall test. Trend analyses revealed a shift towards more positive detectable (signal‐to‐noise ratio > 1) trends in annual and seasonal runoff from the middle to the late period across the study domain. Most positive detectable seasonal runoff trends in the middle period occur in spring in glacierized westward rivers located >1,200 m, whereas in the late period, they all occur in fall and are regionally coherent around Vancouver Island and south coastal BC. Rivers draining eastward exhibit more positive trends over 1986–2015 compared to westward rivers. This study provides crucial information on the hydrology of mountain watersheds across British Columbia's coast in response to Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase changes, the elevational amplification of regional climate change, and their influences on precipitation and glacier retreat.  相似文献   

8.
In this work we examine simultaneous observations from the two geosynchronous satellites GOES-5 and GOES-6 located at 282°E and 265°E respectively, and from middle and low latitude ground observatories located within 250°E and 294°E geographic longitude, during isolated substorms of moderate activity. The spatial distribution of our observation points allows us to make a detailed study of the azimuthal expansion of the substorm current wedge. The data analysis shows evidence that the substorm initiation and development mechanism include the cross-tail current diversion/disruption, the substorm current wedge formation and the azimuthal expansion of the inner plasma sheet. The triggering mechanism is initially confined in a longitudinally narrow sector, estimated to be less than 15° and located very close to local midnight to the east or to the west. The current disruption region expands both eastward and westward in the magnetotail, so that the location of major field-aligned currents flowing into the ionosphere shifts successively eastward, and the location of the currents flowing out of the ionosphere shifts successively westward. Evidence was found that the perturbation travels toward the west with velocities greater than those expanding the wedge eastward. The drastic decrease of the velocity with the azimuthal distance from the location of the disturbance initiation, i.e., the onset sector, indicates that the energy release is a very localized phenomenon. Finally, the transient D perturbation observed by the geosynchronous satellites suggests that the field-aligned currents forming the wedge have a longitudunally limited extent.  相似文献   

9.
This paper contains correlations between the NCEP/NCAR global stratospheric data below 10 hPa and the 11-year solar cycle. In the north summer the correlations between the stratospheric geopotential heights and the 11-year solar cycle are strong and positive on the Northern Hemisphere and as far south as 30°S, whereas they are weak in the north winter all over the globe. If the global stratospheric heights and temperatures in the north winter are stratified according to the phase of the QBO in the lower stratosphere, their correlations with the solar cycle are large and positive in the Arctic in the west years of the QBO but insignificantly small over the rest of the earth, as far as the South Pole. In the east years, however, the arctic correlations with the solar cycle are negative, but to the south they are positive and strong in the tropical and temperate regions of both hemispheres, similar to the correlations with the full series of stratospheric data in the other seasons. The influence of the solar cycle in the Arctic is stronger in the latter half of the winter. The global difference, in the northern winter, in the sign and strength of the correlations between the stratospheric heights and temperatures and the solar cycle in east and west years of the QBO can be ascribed to the fact that the dominant stratospheric teleconnection and the solar influence work in the same direction in the east years, but oppose each other in the west years.  相似文献   

10.
Mass balance of the Lambert Glacier basin, East Antarctica   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  
Since it is the largest glacier system in Antarctica, the Lambert Glacier basin plays an important role in the mass balance of the overall Antarctic ice sheet. The observed data and shallow core studies from the inland traverse investigations in recent years show that there are noticeable differences in the distribution and variability of the snow accumulation rate between east and west sides. On the east side, the accumulation is higher on the average and has increased in the past decades, while on the west side it is contrary. The ice movement measurement and the ice flux calculation indicate that the ice velocity and the flux are larger in east than in west, meaning that the major part of mass supply for the glacier is from the east side. The mass budget estimate with the latest data gives that the integrated accumulation over the upstream area of the investigation traverse route is larger than the outflow ice flux by 13%, suggesting that the glacier basin is in a positive mass balance state and the ice thickness will increase if the present climate is keeping.  相似文献   

11.
松辽盆地东缘域位于松嫩—张广才岭微板块东部.自晚古生代以来该域经历了西拉木伦河缝合带闭合产生的北向挤压作用、蒙古—鄂霍茨克洋自西向东剪刀叉式闭合对其东侧东南侧产生的挤压作用以及西太平洋板块西向变向俯冲产生的挤压作用等区域构造应力场影响,从而产生了复杂的地壳变动.该东缘域的地壳结构与松辽盆地地壳是否具有相近的结构特点,这是至今未被研究的内容.在Songliao Drep研究中已经用深反射地震手段得到松辽盆地地壳结构的一组新认识.这些认识在其东缘域是否还成立,也需要用同样精度的手段予以研究.另外,莫霍界面的宏观特征与微观（内部）特征,从松辽盆地到其东缘域有什么样的变化,其形成机理是什么,也需要进一步研究.为了回答这些科学问题,从哈尔滨西至尚志市附近实施了一条东西向约150 km长的深反射地震剖面.通过研究发现东缘域与松辽盆地基底地壳具有明显的差别,即由松辽盆地地壳的三分性变到东缘域盆地外地壳的二分性,在剖面近东端得到近26 km深的莫霍界面深度,并用均衡理论分析莫霍界面形态特征的形成机理;上部地壳存在双向大型推覆断裂,推测其被推覆体主体是古亚洲洋沉积地层即C-P系海相地层.这些认识为中国东北地区探查晚古生代海相地层、研究东北亚地壳结构特征提供了理论依据.  相似文献   

12.
The plausible long‐term trend of precipitation in China and its association with El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) are investigated by using non‐parametric techniques. It is concluded that a greater number of decreasing trends are observed than are expected to occur by chance. Geographically, the decreasing trend was concentrated in most parts of China, including the Songliao River, Hai River, Huai River, Yellow River, Zhujiang River, and southern part of the Yangtze River basins, whereas an increasing trend appeared primarily in the western and middle parts of China, mainly including the Inland River basin, and the northern part of the Yangtze River basins. Monthly mean precipitation for the summer and early autumn months generally decreased, with the greatest decrease occurring in August. The precipitation in spring from January to April and later autumn, including September and October, tended to increase. The teleconnection between precipitation and ENSO has been investigated by using the non‐parametric Kendall's τ. The correlation coefficients between the southern oscillation index (SOI) and precipitation show the areas with positive or negative associations. Approximately 20% of the stations exhibit statistically significant correlations between SOI and precipitation, of which 70% show a negative correlation, with most of them appearing in southeast China and several appearing in northwest and northeast China. Similar regional patterns are also observed when the precipitation records are further subdivided into El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods. Statistical tests for the three kinds of time series were carried out using the non‐parametric Wilcoxon rank‐sum test, and it is noted that the stations with significant differences in precipitation averages are mainly marked in the Yellow River basin and south China. The frequencies of below‐ and above‐average precipitation that occurred during the El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods are estimated as well. The result shows that greater precipitation may be associated with El Niño episodes in south China, but drought may easily occur during El Niño episodes in the Yellow River basin. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
交城断裂为太原盆地西界的主控边界断裂,为查明交城断裂在这一地区的确切位置和地裂缝与交城断裂的关系,采用地震地质调查和人工地震勘探对在此范围内交城断裂的具体位置和地层错断情况进行了详细研究。结果表明,交城断裂交城县城段并不是位于基岩隆起区与盆地倾斜平原的分界处,而是位于距该分界东南约200 m处。交城县城西北侧的地裂缝与地震勘探在这一带所探查到的交城断裂的位置相当吻合,由此可以推断地裂缝的产生与交城断裂有关,属构造地裂缝。指出,在进行活动断裂附近的城市规划或重大工程建设时应对“山根”的倒退现象予以高度重视。  相似文献   

14.
Flow structure in the Australian–Antarctic basin is investigated using an eddy-resolving general ocean circulation model and validated with iceberg and middepth float trajectories. A cyclonic circulation system between the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Antarctic Slope Current consists of a large-scale gyre in the west (80–110° E) and a series of eddies in the east (120–150° E). The western gyre has an annual mean westward transport of 22 Sv in the southern limb. Extending west through the Princess Elizabeth Trough, 5 Sv of the gyre recirculates off Prydz Bay and joins the western boundary current off the Kerguelen Plateau. Iceberg trajectories from QuickScat and ERS-1/2 support this recirculation and the overall structure of the Antarctic Slope Current against isobath in the model. Argo float trajectories also reveal a consistent structure of the deep westward slope current. This study indicates the presence of a large cyclonic circulation in this basin, which is comparable to the Weddell and Ross gyres.  相似文献   

15.
Local dry/wet conditions and extreme rainfall events are of great concern in regional water resource and disaster risk management. Extensive studies have been carried out to investigate the change of dry/wet conditions and the adaptive responses to extreme rainfall events within the context of climate change. However, applicable tools and their usefulness are still not sufficiently studied, and in Hunan Province, a major grain-producing area in China that has been frequently hit by flood and drought, relevant research is even more limited. This paper investigates the spatiotemporal variation of dry/wet conditions and their annual/seasonal trends in Hunan with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) at various time scales. Furthermore, to verify the potential usefulness of SPI for drought/flood monitoring, the correlation between river discharge and SPI at multiple time scales was examined, and the relation between extreme SPI and the occurrence of historical drought/flood events is explored. The results indicate that the upper reaches of the major rivers in Hunan Province have experienced more dry years than the middle and lower reaches over the past 57 years, and the region shows a trend of becoming drier in the spring and autumn seasons and wetter in the summer and winter seasons. We also found a strong correlation between river discharge and SPI series, with the maximum correlation coefficient occurred at the time scale of 2 months. SPI at different time scales may vary in its usefulness in drought/flood monitoring, and this highlights the need for a comprehensive consideration of various time scales when SPI is employed to monitor droughts and floods.  相似文献   

16.
This paper presents aeromagnetic images for the Chhattisgarh basin region, in Central India, to provide a new window on Precambrian basement geology and structure. On the basis of aeromagnetic patterns, the Chhattisgarh basin is sub-divided into a northern low (negative) anomaly zone and a southern high (positive) anomaly zone. The northern portion of the main Chhattisgarh basin has been further divided into two subbasins, the Hirri sub-basin in the west, and Baradwar sub-basin in the east. A prominent negative anomaly delineates a NW-SE trending greenstone belt separating these sub-basins. Positive magnetic anomalies delineate the extent of the Dongargarh granite and equivalents, while the weak magnetic anomaly in the southeast of the Dongargarh granite and equivalents reflect granulite gneisses of the Eastern Ghat Mobile Belt. By applying the reduced-to-the-equator filter we enhanced the possible magnetic sources and structural lineaments within the Chhattisgarh basin. A new sketch map of structural elements was then compiled from aeromagnetic interpretation over the Chhattisgarh basin area. It includes possible faults, folds and an inferred lithological boundary.  相似文献   

17.
Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for drought forecasting   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  
Drought causes huge losses in agriculture and has many negative influences on natural ecosystems. In this study, the applicability of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for drought forecasting and quantitative value of drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), is investigated. For this aim, 10 rainfall gauging stations located in Central Anatolia, Turkey are selected as study area. Monthly mean rainfall and SPI values are used for constructing the ANFIS forecasting models. For all stations, data sets include a total of 516 data records measured between in 1964 and 2006 years and data sets are divided into two subsets, training and testing. Different ANFIS forecasting models for SPI at time scales 1–12 months were trained and tested. The results of ANFIS forecasting models and observed values are compared and performances of models were evaluated. Moreover, the best fit models have been also trained and tested by Feed Forward Neural Networks (FFNN). The results demonstrate that ANFIS can be successfully applied and provide high accuracy and reliability for drought forecasting.  相似文献   

18.
The planetary boundary layer(PBL)scheme in the regional climate model(RCM)has a significant impact on the interactions and exchanges of moisture,momentum,and energy between land,ocean,and atmosphere;however,its uncertainty will cause large systematic biases of RCM.Based on the four different PBL schemes(YSU,ACM2,Boulac,and MYJ)in Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model,the impacts of these schemes on the simulation of circulation and precipitation during the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)are investigated.The simulated results of the two local turbulent kinetic energy(TKE)schemes,Boulac and MYJ,are more consistent with the observations than those in the two nonlocal closure schemes,YSU and ACM2.The former simulate more reasonable low-level southwesterly flow over East China and west pacific subtropical high(WPSH)than the latter.As to the modeling of summer monsoon precipitation,both the spatial distributions and temporal evolutions from Boulac and MYJ are also better than those in YSU and ACM2 schemes.In addition,through the comparison between YSU and Boulac experiments,the differences from the results of EASM simulation are more obvious over the oceanic area.In the experiments with the nonlocal schemes YSU and ACM2,the boundary layer mixing processes are much stronger,which lead to produce more sea surface latent heat flux and enhanced convection,and finally induce the overestimated precipitation and corresponding deviation of monsoon circulation.With the further study,it is found that the absence of air-sea interaction in WRF may amplify the biases caused by PBL scheme over the ocean.Consequently,there is a reduced latent heat flux over the sea surface and even more reasonable EASM simulation,if an ocean model coupled into WRF.  相似文献   

19.
本文利用计算应变负荷潮的积分Green函数方法,计算了全球Schwiderski海潮模型M2分波在中国大陆产生的应变负荷潮.根据负荷潮的分布特点,中国大陆大致可以分成以东经100°为界的东、西两个区域.在东区,负荷潮主要受太平洋海潮的控制;在西部内陆地区,除太平洋海潮外,它们还明显地受印度洋海潮的影响.根据本文计算结果绘制的M2分波应变负荷潮在中国大陆的地理分布图,为如何正确考虑M2分波负荷潮对应变固体潮观测结果的影响提供了重要的参考资料.  相似文献   

20.
Systematic studies of the ophiolites and associated volcanics stretching more than 1500 km from the Derni-Nanping-Pipasi-Kangxian area in the west to the Qingshuihe area of the south Dabie Mountains in the east indicate the existence of a suture zone (the Mianl(u)e suture)and a vanished paleo-ocean basin (the Mianlue paleo-ocean basin) in the region. From west to east, ophiolitic melange associations distribute discontinuously along the suture. Rock assemblages include ophiolite, island arc and oceanic island rock series. The Mianlue paleo-ocean basin experienced its major formation and expending episode during the Carboniferous-Permian period. The finding of the suture zone and the paleo-ocean basin is tectonically significant in timing the collision between the North China-Qinling and Yangtze blocks and determining the formation and evolution of the Qinling orogenic belt.  相似文献   

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