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1.
山西大同-阳高地震活动背景 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
通过对大同盆地历史地震活动及大同盆地历史地震活动与华北地震区、山西地震带强震活动的关系的研究，得出山西大同-阳高1989年6．1级地震活动是这一地区历史地震的延续，是华北北部中强地震活动的重要组成部分，具有广义前震的重要意义，其后对应发生的河北张北6．2级地震。标志着华北地震区的地震活动期已进入尾声。 相似文献
2.
川滇地区是我国地震危险性较高的地区之一.本文基于对特大强震的风险性考虑,使用全球地震模型OpenQuake软件,建立了川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型.首先根据构造特征划分多个震源分区,并整理出这些震源分区内断层活动特征与滑动速率;基于震源分区和断层模型,使用GPS应变率转换成的锥形古登堡-里克特关系作为整个区域的地震积累率,并允许超过历史最大震级的特大地震的出现,结合活动断层滑动速率所积累的地震发生率,给出震源分区内断层地震源和背景地震源的地震发生率的比率分配关系;在活动断层分段上,保留了大型断裂或其主要部分,没有根据小的阶区来对断层进行详细分段,以便分配特大地震发生率;并使用地震率平滑方法分配背景地震发生率.最后在OpenQuake中加入地震动预测方程,计算出了川滇地区的PGA分布图,为区域地震危险性提供科学依据. 相似文献
3.
在地震危险性分析中，历史地震资料是确定地震活动性参数的关键。鉴于我国西部地震资料记载年限短，地震活动水平高的情况，本文提出一种对中国西部地区如何使用有限资料，确定未来地震活动水平和合理估计地震活动性参数的方法。该方法是引入相对应变这一物理量，通过分析各地震带中强以上地震在时间上的相对应变释放速率，达到尽可能合理估计地震活动性参数的目的。 相似文献
4.
Geodetic deformation vs. seismic strain deduced by historical earthquakes across the Alborz Mountains 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Mohammad Reza Zolfaghari 《Journal of Seismology》2009,13(4):647-663
Historical seismicity is used in order to map spatial distribution of seismic moment released by past earthquakes and to compare
strain rate deduced from seismicity to those measured by geodetic GPS survey. Spatial analyses are performed on the seismicity
of northern boundary of Central Iranian Block which coincides with the Alborz Mountains. This belt has been responsible for
several catastrophic earthquakes in the past. In this study, the records of historical and instrumental earthquakes in the
Alborz Mountains are used to calculate and plot geographical distribution of seismic moment released in time. A two-dimensional
distribution function is proposed and used here to spread seismic moment along causative tectonic features. Using accumulated
seismic moment, average slip rates across active faults are estimated for 32 sub-zones along the Alborz Mountains and western
Kopet Dag. Seismic moment released by historical and recent earthquakes on this belt accounts for slip rate of 3–5 mm/year
which is in good agreement with the geodetic vectors recently deduced from GPS survey in this region. The study also reveals
geographical variations of slip rates along some 900 km length of this zone based on seismic history. The results are compared
against finding from similar study in this region. Portions of Central and Eastern Alborz show lower seismic strain rate which
could imply aseismic motion or overdue earthquakes. Completeness of historical earthquake catalogue and its reliability with
regard to earthquake magnitudes, locations, and rupturing systems are among many plausible factors controlling the credibility
of such results. Therefore, any conclusions derived from these results remain as reliable as the data and assumptions used
for the analyses. 相似文献
5.
Egill Hauksson 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2010,167(8-9):979-997
We associate waveform-relocated background seismicity and aftershocks with the 3-D shapes of late Quaternary fault zones in southern California. Major earthquakes that can slip more than several meters, aftershocks, and near-fault background seismicity mostly rupture different surfaces within these fault zones. Major earthquakes rupture along the mapped traces of the late Quaternary faults, called the principal slip zones (PSZs). Aftershocks occur either on or in the immediate vicinity of the PSZs, typically within zones that are ??2-km wide. In contrast, the near-fault background seismicity is mostly accommodated on a secondary heterogeneous network of small slip surfaces, and forms spatially decaying distributions extending out to distances of ??10?km from the PSZs. We call the regions where the enhanced rate of background seismicity occurs, the seismic damage zones. One possible explanation for the presence of the seismic damage zones and associated seismicity is that the damage develops as faults accommodate bends and geometrical irregularities in the PSZs. The seismic damage zones mature and reach their finite width early in the history of a fault, during the first few kilometers of cumulative offset. Alternatively, the similarity in width of seismic damage zones suggests that most fault zones are of almost equal strength, although the amount of cumulative offset varies widely. It may also depend on the strength of the fault zone, the time since the last major earthquake as well as other parameters. In addition, the seismic productivity appears to be influenced by the crustal structure and heat flow, with more extensive fault networks in regions of thin crust and high heat flow. 相似文献
6.
川滇藏邻区巴塘——丽江地震块体强震活动特征的初步探讨 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
本根据１９８６￣１９９６年川滇藏三省（区）邻界区巴塘－丽江－带频繁的强震活动的资料,结合活动构造带分布及历史强震记录,分析了该邻界区强震活动若干特征,提出了“存在川滇藏邻界区巴塘－丽江地震块体”的认识,并就其与相邻地区强震活动关系及未来强震趋势作了讨论。 相似文献
7.
Thierry Camelbeeck Pierre Alexandre Kris Vanneste Mustapha Meghraoui 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2000,20(5-8):405-414
In western Europe, the knowledge of long-term seismicity is based on reliable historical seismicity and covers a time period of less than 700 years. Despite the fact that the seismic activity is considered as low in the region extending from the Lower Rhine Embayment to England, historical information collected recently suggests the occurrence of three earthquakes with magnitude around 6.0 or greater. These events are a source of information for the engineer or the scientist involved in mitigation against large earthquakes. We provide information relevant to this aspect for the Belgian earthquake of September 18, 1692. The severity of the damage described in original sources indicates that its epicentral intensity could be IX (EMS-98 scale) and that the area with intensity VII and greater than VII has at least a mean radius of 45 km. Following relationships between average macroseismic radii and magnitude for earthquakes in stable continental regions, its magnitude Ms is estimated as between 6.0 and 6.5. To extend in time our knowledge of the seismic activity, we conducted paleoseismic investigations in the Roer Graben to address the question of the possible occurrence of large earthquakes with coseismic surface ruptures. Our study along the Feldbiss fault (the western border of the graben) demonstrates its recent activity and provides numerous lines of evidence of Holocene and Late Pleistocene large earthquakes. It suggests that along the 10 km long Bree fault scarp, the return period for earthquakes with magnitude from 6.2 to 6.7 ranges from 10,000 to 20,000 years during the last 50,000 years. Considering as possible the occurrence of similar earthquakes along all the Quaternary faults in the Lower Rhine Embayment, a large earthquake could occur there each 500–1000 years. These results are important in two ways. (i) The evidence that large earthquakes occur in western Europe in the very recent past which is not only attested by historical sources, but also suggested by paleoseismic investigations in the Roer Graben. (ii) The existence of a scientific basis to better evaluate the long-term seismicity in this part of Europe (maximal magnitude and return period) in the framework of seismic hazard assessment. 相似文献
8.
The New Seismic Zoning Map of China was prepared from 1987 to 1990 and officially promulgated in 1991.In comparison with the previous two seismic zoning maps prepared in 1957 and 1977,some new methods were applied to upgrade the method currently used for seismic hazard analysis.First,a probabilistic method was used instead of the deterministic analysis was used for previous mapping.Second,by taking advantages of the long history of historical seismic data in China,the nonhomogeneity of seismicity both in space and in time has been fully considered and hence the over-and/or underestimation of seismic hazard could be avoided.Third,the results of middle-and long-term earthquake prediction based on tectonic evidence have been incorporated into seismic hazard analysis.In addition,the attenuation laws for both intensity and peak acceleration of strong motion as the mapping parameters are also presented.Finally,an evaluation of the New Seismic Map and its effect on engineering application,such as aseismic desi 相似文献
9.
Modern earthquake loss models make use of earthquake catalogs relevant to the seismic hazard assessment upon seismicity and seismotectonic analysis. The main objective of this paper is to investigate a recently compiled catalog (National Institute of Meteorology or INM catalog: 412-2011) and to generate seismic hazard maps through classical probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and smoothed-gridded seismicity models for Tunisia. It is now established with the local earthquake bulletin that the recent seismicity of Tunisia is sparse and moderate. Therefore, efforts must be undertaken to elaborate a robust hazard analysis for risk assessment and seismic design purposes. These recommendations follow the recently published reports by the World Bank that describe the seismic risk in Tunis City as being beyond a tolerable level with an MSK intensity level of VII. Some attempts were made during the past two decades to assess the seismic hazard for Tunisia and they have mostly failed to properly investigate the historical and instrumental seismicity catalog. This limitation also exists for the key aspect of epistemic and random uncertainties impact on the final seismic hazard assessment. This study also investigates new ground motion prediction equations suitable for use in Tunisia. The methodology applied herein uses, for the first time in PSHA of Tunisia, seismicity parameters integrated in logic tree framework to capture epistemic uncertainties through three different seismic source models. It also makes use of the recently released version of OpenQuake engine; an open-source tool for seismic hazard and risk assessment developed in the framework of the Global Earthquake Model. 相似文献
10.
— A seismic data file of 3,740 earthquakes from January 1987 to December 1994 has been elaborated for Morocco and the border regions, with 10 main events registering magnitudes from 5 to 5.6. Such seismicity is particularly important for Morocco as the released seismic energy constitutes a considerable part of the total energy radiated during the 20th century. Relative seismicity maps confirm the persistence of the major features of the seismicity of Morocco. An important seismic activity is observed in the Alboran region continental crust, which absorbs the maximum deformation resulting from the convergence of the African and Iberian plates. However, in the longitude window 3.5°– 6° W at depths of 25 to 50 km, a seismic gap zone seems to take place. An explanation of this phenomenon may be provided by the slab breakoff model. Even if the seismicity of Morocco remains moderate, heavy damage is observed when the magnitude of earthquakes exceeds 4.5, especially in the case of traditional buildings. 相似文献
11.
Objective assessment of source models for seismic hazard studies: with a worked example from UK data
Up to now, the search for increased reliability in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has concentrated on ways of
assessing expert opinion and subjective judgement. Although in some areas of PSHA subjective opinion is unavoidable, there
is a danger that assessment procedures and review methods contribute further subjective judgements on top of those already
elicited. It is helpful to find techniques for objectively assessing seismic source models that show what the interpretations
physically mean in terms of seismicity. Experience shows that well-meaning but flawed design decisions can lead to source
models that are incompatible with the seismic history that was used as input. In this paper a method is demonstrated in which
large numbers of synthetic earthquake catalogues, that match the completeness thresholds of the historical catalogue, are
generated. The study area can be divided into a grid of uniform cells, and the number of earthquakes in each cell in both
the historical catalogue and each simulated catalogue are then counted. Comparison of the historical pattern and a set of
1,000 simulated patterns, using a X2 test, shows if the historical pattern is credibly a member of the set of outcomes obtainable from the seismic source model.
A second method is to chart the distribution of a large sample of simulated catalogues in terms of magnitude frequency, and
observe whether the historical catalogue is comfortably within this distribution, or an outlier. If it proves impossible to
replicate the historical catalogue using the model, it casts doubt on whether the model is a valid depiction of the seismicity
rates that will govern the future hazard. At the very least, the disparity needs careful investigation to ensure the model
is error-free. A worked example is presented here for the UK, using a source model that was used in Global Seismic Hazard
Map (GSHAP), compared to one that was artificially constructed to be credible but flawed. Two tests find the GSHAP model to
be an acceptable representation of the pattern of seismicity in the UK, while the artificial model is conclusively rejected. 相似文献
12.
ＴｈｅａｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｏｆｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｄａｔａｗｉｔｈｄｉｆｆｅｒｅｎｔｐｒｅｃｉｓｉｏｎｉｎｔｈｅｄｅｔｅｒｍｉｎａｔｉｏｎｏｆｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｉｔｙｐａｒａｍｅｔｅｒｓＸｕｅ－ＳｈｅｎＪＩＮ（金学申）；Ｙｉｎｇ－ＨｕａＤＡＩ（戴英华）；Ｊｕ... 相似文献
13.
Shaukat A. Khan Kypros Pilakoutas Iman Hajirasouliha Reyes Garcia Maurizio Guadagnini 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2018,17(4):787-804
Modern Earthquake Risk Assessment (ERA) methods usually require seismo-tectonic information for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) that may not be readily available in developing countries. To bypass this drawback, this paper presents a practical event-based PSHA method that uses instrumental seismicity, available historical seismicity, as well as limited information on geology and tectonic setting. Historical seismicity is integrated with instrumental seismicity to determine the long-term hazard. The tectonic setting is included by assigning seismic source zones associated with known major faults. Monte Carlo simulations are used to generate earthquake catalogues with randomized key hazard parameters. A case study region in Pakistan is selected to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. The results indicate that the proposed method produces seismic hazard maps consistent with previous studies, thus being suitable for generating such maps in regions where limited data are available. The PSHA procedure is developed as an integral part of an ERA framework named EQRAM. The framework is also used to determine seismic risk in terms of annual losses for the study region. 相似文献
14.
The role of the seismic trigger in the Calitri landslide (Italy): historical reconstruction and dynamic analysis 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Salvatore Martino Gabriele Scarascia Mugnozza 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2005,25(12):933-950
The study covered by this paper was focused on the historical case of the Calitri landslide, which was repeatedly reactivated by earthquakes, as reported since 1694. The town of Calitri (Southern Italy) is located on a ridge whose southern slope, from its top to the Ofanto river valley floor, has been historically affected by major landsliding. The last record of recurrence of the Calitri landslide leads back to the 1980 Irpinia earthquake, which caused significant damage to the town and had pervasive and visible ground effects. Based on a detailed historical reconstruction of landsliding and seismicity at Calitri, the study analysed the current static and dynamic stability of the landsliding slope by means of a finite-difference numerical analysis, taking into account the various factors of landslide initiation and kinematics. The results of the numerical analysis: (i) were consistent with the roto-translational mechanism observed upon the latest reactivation of the landslide; (ii) demonstrated that excess pore pressure redistribution caused a lag between the seismic trigger and the initiation of landsliding; and (iii) showed the impact of seismic input frequency on propagation and depth of slope instability. 相似文献
15.
As large destructive seismic events are not frequent in Algeria, anexhaustive knowledge of the historical seismicity is required to have arealistic view of seismic hazard in this part of the world. This research workpresents a critical reappraisal of seismicity in the north-eastern Algeria forseismotectonic and seismic hazard purposes. This part of work focuses onthe seismicity of pre-1900 period for the area under consideration[33°N-38°N, 4°E-9.5°E]. By going back tothe available documentary sources and evaluating and analysing the eventsin geographical, cultural and historical context, it has been possible toidentify 111 events, from 1850–1899, which are not reported in therecent Algerian catalogue. Several spurious events, reported in standardlistings, have been deleted and nine unknown events have been discovered.It is quite clear that macroseismic information derived from press reportsand published documents in Algeria, under certain conditions, is veryincomplete, even for destructive earthquakes, located in the countrysideaway from communication centres. One of the reasons for this iscensorship, noticeable during the colonisation period. Critical analysis ofnewly collected information has allowed the determination and/or theimprovement of the macroseismic parameters of each event, such aslocation, maximum epicentral intensity and magnitude to produce anearthquake catalogue as homogeneous and complete as the available data,for the zone under study. The criteria used in this research are explainedand eight historical earthquakes have been the subject of retrospectivemacroseismic field construction.The investigation of historical earthquakes is one of the most important taskin studying seismotectonic for seismic hazard evaluation purposes. 相似文献
16.
The central part of the Apulia region, in southern Italy, has been generally considered practically free from significant level of seismicity, but historical documentation, geological indicators and recent instrumental observations suggest that the activity of local minor tectonic structures could have been masked (and partly also induced) by that of major seismogenic structures located in the neighbouring regions. A revision of the central Apulia seismicity characteristics was conducted considering its space and time distribution, energy release rate and focal mechanisms, in view of possible hazard implications. To better constrain the seismicity rates inferable from the set of available historical data, special attention was paid to the declustering of a catalogue of low energy events (magnitude < 3.5) instrumentally detected in about 20 years: a new declustering procedure, useful for cases like to the one at hand, was purposely devised taking into account the peculiarity of local seismicity characteristics and the limitations of the available database. The results obtained by combining instrumental and historical data show that this area is affected by a rather sporadic seismicity, likely associated to a general tensional regime and possibly stimulated by the interaction with Apenninic and northern Apulia seismogenic activity. Even though less energetic, the local seismicity contributes to increase the moderately damaging shaking probability due to the activity of seismic sources located in the near areas, so to justify the adoption of at least a minimum level of caution in relation to the local definition of seismic protection measures. 相似文献
17.
Takamatsu is a harbor city of 330,000 people on the northern shore of Shikoku Island, southwest Japan. Earthquakes in the Nankai Trough, typically of magnitude M 8+, have been considered the primary source of seismic hazard for the island and Takamatsu. A major active fault system, the Median Tectonic Line, runs across the Shikoku from east to west near the north shore. There is no documented historical seismicity associated with this major fault system in Shikoku or with associated faults such as the 20 km Nagao Fault near Takamatsu. Therefore the trenches were cut across some of the more important faults to expose the record of past seismicity. Additional data on past seismicity is derived from paleo-liquefaction studies in the Takamatsu plain. This paper describes the trenching and paleo-seismic studies and discusses the implications of the findings for seismic hazard in Takamatsu. 相似文献
18.
The historical seismicity of the eastern Transbaikalia 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The seismicity of eastern Transbaikalia has not been studied extensively. According to the current estimate, the seismic activity
in this area is defined as moderate and low. At the same time, there is some historical evidence to show that major seismic
occurrences have repeatedly taken place in various areas of Transbaikalia. The evidence is fragmentary and for this reason
has not been taken account of when developing parametric catalogs and for seismic hazard assessment in eastern Siberia. The
present paper considers some new data that throw light on the macroseismic effects of some large historical earthquakes in
eastern Transbaikalia and permit estimation of their basic parameters. Additional material was discovered when inspecting
the regional periodicals that were published in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. This study suggests higher seismic
activity for eastern Transbaikalia than thought previously. 相似文献
19.
The seismicity of Algeria since the nineteenth century is relatively well documented. However, compared with the numerous damaging earthquakes that are documented since 1850, fewer than a dozen reports of earthquakes are listed for the pre-1850 ad period, suggesting that the historical record is missing a substantial number of earthquakes. This paper examines the use of literary and epigraphic sources relevant to the investigation of seismicity in Algeria during Roman times. We provide examples where the meager written literary record may be supplemented with appropriate archaeological and epigraphic data describing damage to ancient Roman sites. The examples show that collaboration between earth scientists and archeologists is of utility in improving the seismic record and highlights the need for further study of data sources and repositories located both inside and outside of Algeria. 相似文献
20.
Existing loading protocols for quasi-static cyclic testing of structures are based on recordings from regions of high seismicity. For regions of low to moderate seismicity they overestimate imposed cumulative damage demands. Since structural capacities are a function of demand, existing loading protocols applied to specimens representative of structures in low to moderate seismicity regions might underestimate structural strength and deformation capacity. To overcome this problem, this paper deals with the development of cyclic loading protocols for European regions of low to moderate seismicity. Cumulative damage demands imposed by a set of 60 ground motion records are evaluated for a wide variety of SDOF systems that reflect the fundamental properties of a large portion of the existing building stock. The ground motions are representative of the seismic hazard level corresponding to a 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years in a European moderate seismicity region. To meet the calculated cumulative damage demands, loading protocols for different structural types and vibration periods are developed. For comparison, cumulative seismic demands are also calculated for existing protocols and a set of records that was used in a previous study on loading protocols for regions of high seismicity. The median cumulative demands for regions of low to moderate seismicity are significantly less than those of existing protocols and records of high seismicity regions. For regions of low to moderate seismicity the new protocols might therefore result in larger strength and deformation capacities and hence in more cost-effective structural configurations or less expensive retrofit measures. 相似文献