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1.
R. Gutiérrez C. Roldán R. Gutiérrez-Sánchez J. M. Angulo 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(4):539-546
This paper evaluates the effects of using data observed on regular nested grids on the parameter estimates of a two-parameter
Gompertz diffusion model. This new spatial diffusion process represents a technically more complex stage of Gompertz modeling.
Firstly, the diffusion model is introduced through an appropriate transformation of a two-parameter Gaussian diffusion process.
Probabilistic characteristics of this model, such as the transition densities and the trend functions, are obtained. Secondly,
statistical estimation is considered using data obtained on a regular or irregular grid; the explicit expression of the likelihood
equations and the parameter estimators are given for regular grids. Finally, a simulation experiment illustrates the results
of this paper. 相似文献
2.
The probability distributions of different values of water quality indices have been shown theoretically to follow a two-parameter lognormal law with season-dependent parameters. The obtained distribution law was checked against data of many-year water quality monitoring in the Moskva R. (at Rublevo Settl.). The distributions of several hydrochemical and microbiological indices have been studied. The seasonal dependence of parameters have been shown to cause the splitting of water quality index distributions predominantly into two lognormal branches, one corresponding to low-water seasons and the other corresponding to floods. Exceptions are water turbidity and color index: the former splits into three lognormal branches (corresponding to periods of winter low-water period, summer period with moderate rains, floods, and high rain floods), while the color index has only one branch, embracing all seasons. 相似文献
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Based on a framework of Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis, a nonlinear dynamic model of a reinforced concrete (RC) building was established to obtain a demand hazard curve that considers multidimensional performance limit states (MPLSs), including combinations of peak floor acceleration and interstory drift. A definition of the two limit states is expressed using a generalized MPLSs equation. The peak floor acceleration and the interstory drift were considered to be dependent and were assumed to follow a bidimensional lognormal distribution. The maximum interstory drift and the maximum peak floor acceleration were calculated using Increment Dynamic Analysis and nonlinear time history analysis. The numerical formula for a demand hazard curve of the modelled building was then derived by coupling the bidimensional lognormal distribution with the ground motion hazard curve. The uncertainties involved in MPLSs and structural parameters, as well as the different threshold values for peak floor acceleration, were further considered to determine the sensitivity of demand hazard curves. The analysis results showed that the proposed method can be used to describe the damage performance of various building structures, which are sensitive to multiple response parameters including drift and acceleration. Moreover, it was demonstrated in this study that the demand hazard curves were relatively conservative if the coefficient of variation, the peak floor acceleration threshold, the interaction factor N IDR and added stiffness, were appropriately selected. 相似文献
5.
The necessary and sufficient conditions for global optimality and the closed form solution are derived for a problem of minimizing a weighted sum of storey stiffnesses of a shear building subject to a fundamental frequency constraint. A set of higher frequency formulae is derived for optimally designed shear buildings with equal masses. It is shown that, if the weight coefficients are regarded as parameters for adjustment, the distribution of the SRSS estimates of the maximum interstorey drifts can be adjusted so as to coincide with a specified one. The base shear–fundamental period formulae and the base shear–design drift formulae are derived semi-analytically for shear buildings with equal masses on the basis of the optimum design formulae and the SRSS estimates of the maximum interstorey drifts. Some numerical examples are presented in order to illustrate the validity of the proposed method of earthquake-response constrained design. 相似文献
6.
针对目前RC框架结构地震易损性分析中整体损伤模型研究的薄弱性以及广泛采用的层间位移角方法不能准确反应结构在地震作用下损伤机理的现状,本文基于现有损伤模型的对比分析,提出了一种较准确反映地震破坏机理同时便于应用的最大变形和滞回耗能非线性组合的双参数损伤模型。以8层RC框架结构为例,进行50条地震波作用下的结构增量动力分析,分别绘制了变形和能量2种单参数模型以及牛荻涛模型和本文模型两种双参数模型的结构损伤曲线与易损性曲线,并进行了模型的对比分析和检验评估。分析结果表明:仅以层间位移角作为结构整体损伤指标会高估结构的抗倒塌性能,仅以能量作为结构整体损伤指标会低估结构损伤的超越概率。本文模型能较好地平衡最大变形和累积损伤对结构损伤的影响程度。 相似文献
7.
We determine the nonlinear drift velocities of the mean magnetic field and nonlinear turbulent magnetic diffusion in a turbulent convection. We show that the nonlinear drift velocities are caused by three kinds of the inhomogeneities; i.e., inhomogeneous turbulence, the nonuniform fluid density and the nonuniform turbulent heat flux. The inhomogeneous turbulence results in the well-known turbulent diamagnetic and paramagnetic velocities. The nonlinear drift velocities of the mean magnetic field cause the small-scale magnetic buoyancy and magnetic pumping effects in the turbulent convection. These phenomena are different from the large-scale magnetic buoyancy and magnetic pumping effects which are due to the effect of the mean magnetic field on the large-scale density stratified fluid flow. The small-scale magnetic buoyancy and magnetic pumping can be stronger than these large-scale effects when the mean magnetic field is smaller than the equipartition field. We discuss the small-scale magnetic buoyancy and magnetic pumping effects in the context of the solar and stellar turbulent convection. We demonstrate also that the nonlinear turbulent magnetic diffusion in the turbulent convection is anisotropic even for a weak mean magnetic field. In particular, it is enhanced in the radial direction. The magnetic fluctuations due to the small-scale dynamo increase the turbulent magnetic diffusion of the toroidal component of the mean magnetic field, while they do not affect the turbulent magnetic diffusion of the poloidal field. 相似文献
8.
Spatial models to describe dependent georeferenced data are applied in different fields and, particularly, are used to analyze earth and environmental data. Most of these applications are carried out under Gaussian spatial models. The Birnbaum–Saunders distribution is a unimodal and positively skewed model which has received considerable attention in several areas, including earth and environmental sciences. In addition, theoretical arguments have been provided to justify its usage in the data modeling from these sciences, at least in the same settings where the lognormal distribution can be employed. This paper presents kriging with external drift based on a Birnbaum–Saunders spatial model. The maximum likelihood method is considered to estimate its parameters. The results obtained in the paper are illustrated by an experimental data set related to agricultural management. Specifically, in this illustration, the spatial variability of magnesium content in the soil as a function of calcium content is analyzed. 相似文献
9.
Abstract Applicability of log-Gumbel (LG) and log-logistic (LL) probability distributions in hydrological studies is critically examined under real conditions, where the assumed distribution differs from the true one. The set of alternative distributions consists of five two-parameter distributions with zero lower bound, including LG and LL as well as lognormal (LN), linear diffusion analogy (LD) and gamma (Ga) distributions. The log-Gumbel distribution is considered as both a false and a true distribution. The model error of upper quantiles and of the first two moments is analytically derived for three estimation methods: the method of moments (MOM), the linear moments method (LMM) and the maximum likelihood method (MLM). These estimation methods are used as methods of approximation of one distribution by another distribution. As recommended in the first of this two-part series of papers, MLM turns out to be the worst method, if the assumed LG or LL distribution is not the true one. It produces a huge bias of upper quantiles, which is at least one order higher than that of the other two methods. However, the reverse case, i.e. acceptance of LN, LD or Ga as a hypothetical distribution, while the LG or LL distribution is the true one, gives the MLM bias of reasonable magnitude in upper quantiles. Therefore, one should avoid choosing the LG and LL distributions in flood frequency analysis, especially if MLM is to be applied. 相似文献
10.
After 50 years of Prabhu’s paper on the exact solution of the stochastic reservoir equation for the important class of gamma inflow distributions with an integral shape parameter, a detailed implementation of the exact solution is still lacking, despite its potential usefulness from both theoretical and practical points of view. This paper explores some properties of Prabhu’s exact solution and investigates the numerical difficulties associated with its implementation. The solution is also extended to derive the distributions of deficit, spillage, yield, and actual release from the reservoir. Explicit analytical solutions for three relatively simple cases are given in detail as examples and comparisons with approximate numerical solutions are made, which reveal some shortcomings of approximate methods. The implementation of the solution in the general case reveals some numerical problems associated with large values of the shape parameter of the inflow distribution and large ratios of reservoir size to draft, mainly due to accumulation of round-off errors. A Matlab program has been developed to calculate emptying and filling probabilities over a wide range of reservoir parameters using extended precision. Comparison of Prabhu’s solution with the numerical solution of the reservoir integral equation highlights possible problems with the numerical solution, which may produce inaccurate or even invalid results for large reservoirs, large drift, and large skewness of the inflow distribution. A comparison between gamma and lognormal distributions as models of skew revealed that as the reservoir size, drift, and skewness increase, the probability of emptying of the reservoir becomes smaller for the case of gamma inflow than in the case of lognormal flow having the same skewness coefficient. 相似文献
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A horizontal saltation layer of glass particles in air is investigated experimentally over a flat bed and also over a triangular ridge in a wind tunnel. Particle concentrations are measured by light scattering diffusion (LSD) and digital image processing, and velocities using particle image velocimetry (PIV). All the statistical moments of the particle concentration are determined such as mean concentration, root mean square concentration fluctuations, skewness and flatness coefficients. Over the flat bed, it is confirmed that the mean concentration decreases exponentially with height, the mean dispersion height being a significant length scale. It is shown that the concentration distribution follows quite well a lognormal distribution. Over the ridge, measurements were made at the top of the ridge and in the cavity region and are compared with measurements without the ridge. On the hill crest, particles are retarded, the saltation layer decreases in thickness and concentration is increased. Downwind of the ridge, particle flow behaves like a jet, in particular no particle return flow is observed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
Shaking table test results from a one‐story, two‐bay reinforced concrete frame sustaining shear and axial failures are compared with nonlinear dynamic analyses using models developed for the collapse assessment of older reinforced concrete buildings. The models provided reasonable estimates of the overall frame response and lateral strength degradation; however, the measured drifts were underestimated by the models. Selected model parameters were varied to investigate the sensitivity of the calculated response to changes in the drift at shear failure, rate of shear strength degradation, and drift at axial failure. For the selected ground motion, the drift at shear failure and rate of shear strength degradation did not have a significant impact on the calculated peak drift. By incorporating shear and axial‐load failure models, the analytical model is shown to be capable of predicting the axial‐load failure for a hypothetical frame with three nonductile columns. Improvements are needed in drift demand estimates from nonlinear dynamic analysis if such analyses are to be used in displacement‐based performance assessments. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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14.
《地震工程与结构动力学》2018,47(6):1440-1459
Displacement‐based assessment procedures require as input reliable estimates of the deformation capacity of all structural elements. For unreinforced masonry (URM) walls, current design codes specify the in‐plane deformation capacity as empirical equations of interstory drift. National codes differ with regard to the parameters that are considered in these empirical drift capacity equations, but the inhomogeneity of datasets on URM wall tests renders it difficult to validate the hypotheses with the currently available experimental data. This paper contributes to the future development of such empirical relationships by investigating the sensitivity of the drift capacity to the shear span, the aspect ratio, the axial load ratio, and the size of the wall. For this purpose, finite element models of URM walls are developed in Abaqus/Explicit and validated against a set of experimental results. The results show that the axial load ratio, the shear span, and the wall size are among the factors that influence the drift capacity the most. Empirical equations are mainly derived from test results on small walls, and the numerical results suggest that this can lead to a significant overestimation of the drift capacity for larger walls. 相似文献
15.
The dynamic response characterizing the induced-polarization (IP) phenomenon is modelled by a non-linear diffusion equation (Burger's equation) supplemented by relevant initial and boundary values. The analysis of the model yields a voltage step response and an impedance curve in the frequency domain which agree qualitatively with experimental measurements. Curve fits based on the model have been made in the case of electrochemical cell measurements. The diffusion coefficients estimated by means of these curves are of the same order of magnitude as those calculated using experimental measurements. The normalized transient with these diffusion coefficients agrees with observations, but probably has a shorter discharge time. We have also carried out a comparison with predictions obtained from a linear, finite diffusion layer model, thus showing that for most practical situations the nonlinear term modelling the migration effect can be neglected. 相似文献
16.
The movement of oil under non-breaking waves 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The combined effects of wave kinematics, turbulent diffusion, and buoyancy on the transport of oil droplets at sea were investigated in this work using random walk techniques in a Monte Carlo framework. Six hundred oil particles were placed at the water surface and tracked for 500 wave periods. A dimensionless formulation was presented that allowed reporting distances in terms of the wave length and times in terms of the wave period. Stokes' drift was, expectedly, the major mechanism for horizontal transport. It was also found that plumes that have large terminal rise velocities move faster forward but spread less than those that have small terminal rise velocities. The increase in wave slope (or wave steepness) caused an increase in transport and spreading of the plume. Our results supported treating the oil as completely mixed vertically in a layer near the surface. In the horizontal direction, buoyant plumes had spreading coefficients that are essentially constant after about 200 wave periods. But neutrally buoyant plumes had horizontal spreading coefficients that increased with time (for the simulation time of 500 wave periods). Techniques for generalizing the results for a wide range of wave parameters were presented. 相似文献
17.
Analytical and empirical models for predicting the drift capacity of modern unreinforced masonry walls 
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下载免费PDF全文 Displacement‐based seismic assessment of buildings containing unreinforced masonry (URM) walls requires as input, among others, estimates of the in‐plane drift capacity at the considered limit states. Current codes assess the drift capacity of URM walls by means of empirical models with most codes relating the drift capacity to the failure mode and wall slenderness. Comparisons with experimental results show that such relationships result in large scatter and usually do not provide satisfactory predictions. The objective of this paper is to determine trends in drift capacities of modern URM walls from 61 experimental tests and to investigate whether analytical models could lead to more reliable estimates of the displacement capacity than the currently used empirical models. A recently developed analytical model for the prediction of the ultimate drift capacity for both shear and flexure controlled URM walls is introduced and simplified into an equation that is suitable for code implementation. The approach follows the idea of plastic hinge models for reinforced concrete or steel structures. It explicitly considers the influence of crushing due to flexural or shear failure in URM walls and takes into account the effect of kinematic and static boundary conditions on the drift capacity. Finally, the performance of the analytical model is benchmarked against the test data and other empirical formulations. It shows that it yields significantly better estimates than empirical models in current codes. The paper concludes with an investigation of the sensitivity of the ultimate drift capacity to the wall geometry, static, and kinematic boundary conditions. 相似文献
18.
We propose a model that describes the evolution of crystal sizes and crystal size distributions (CSD) of igneous phenocrysts in a sequence of dissolution and crystallization events. This model is based on the assumption that crystal dissolution is rate-limited by diffusion in melt while crystal growth is controlled by the slower kinetic of new nucleation and growth. As a result, the dissolution rate is inversely proportional to crystal size coming into effect through the curvature of the crystal's surface, but the growth rate does not depend on the crystal size. Closed-form analytical solution of equation for CSD is obtained. We apply results of modeling to quartz and zircon, two prime minerals in silicic igneous systems that are widely used in geochemical and isotopic investigations. The time-series of multiple solution–reprecipitation episodes generate concave-downward CSDs and this result fits well with experimental and natural observations on the abundant concave-down CSD in silicic igneous rocks. We suggest that maturation of crystal populations with sizes above several micrometers can not be caused by a size effect on the solubility of the crystals (Ostwald ripening), but is rather driven by thermal oscillations in experiments and in nature. The model predicts that mean crystal size increases with time proportionally to ∼ t0.20, which is very close to the published experimental results for quartz maturation with the exponent of 0.19–0.22. Our proposed model gives an opportunity to use natural CSDs for interpretation of pre-eruptive magma history, when solubilities and diffusion data are available for constituent elements of the dissolving mineral. In particular, we present time estimates for maturing zircon populations in large volume ignimbrites and estimate that it takes 100–1000 yrs to mature an initially exponential CSD to a lognormal CSD. 相似文献
19.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1051-1064
AbstractDongjiang water has been the key source of water supplies for Hong Kong and its neighbouring cities in the Pearl River Delta in South China since the mid-1960s. Rapid economic development and population growth in this region have caused serious concerns over the adequacy of the quantity and quality of water withdrawn from the Dongjiang River in the future. Information on the magnitude and frequency of low flows in the basin is needed for planning of water resources at present and in the near future. The L-moment method is used to analyse the regional frequency of low flows, since recent studies have shown that it is superior to other methods that have been used previously, and is now being adopted by many organizations worldwide. In this study, basin-wide analysis of low flows is conducted for Dongjiang basin using five distributions: generalized logistic, generalized extreme value, lognormal, Pearson type III and generalized Pareto. Each of these has three parameters estimated by the L-moment method. The discordancy index and homogeneity testing show that 14 out of the 16 study sites belong to a homogenous region; these are used for further analysis. Based on the L-moment ratios diagram, the Hosking and Wallis goodness-of-fit statistical criterion and the L-kurtosis criterion, the three-parameter lognormal distribution is identified as the most appropriate distribution for the homogeneous study region. The regional low-flow estimates for each return period are obtained using the index flood procedure. Examination of the observed and simulated low flows by regional frequency analysis shows a good agreement in general, and the results may satisfy practical application. Furthermore, the regional low-flow relationship between mean annual 7-day low flows and basin area is developed using linear regression, providing a simple and effective method for estimation of low flows of desired return periods for ungauged catchments. 相似文献
20.
The coefficient of variation for grain-by-grain fission track uranium analysis of apatites from igneous rocks seems to reflect the temperature of crystallization and the cooling rate. For metamorphic rocks the coefficient represents a complex record of the homogeneity of the source and of metamorphic neocrystallization. As a test case 41 West Carpathian rocks have been examined and the coefficients of variation for U in apatites found to be: granitic rocks 0.30–0.79, paragneisses 0.35–0.95, migmatites 0.55–0.87, and volcanic rocks 0.30–0.40. Most of the frequency distributions are lognormal, though for some cases a normal distribution gives a better fit, and some are incompatible with either of the two distributions. 相似文献