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1.
The capacity to supply both instream and offstream water uses under alternative climate conditions and likely future changes in population, technology, and water-using practices are examined through an adaptation of the framework developed in the Second National Water Assessment. Two measures of the adequacy of water supplies - the availability of renewable supplies to provide for withdrawal and instream uses and the relation between desired instream flows and current streamflows - are used to examine the impact of the 1931–1940 analog climate (with and without CO2 enrichment) on Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas (MINK). The impacts of the analog climate on water supplies are estimated from actual streamflow data and estimates of the differences in reservoir evaporation under the 1931–1940 analog and the 1951–1980 control climates. A modification of the Erosion Productivity Inventory Calculator (EPIC) model is used to estimate the impacts of the analog climate (with and without CO2 enrichment) on irrigation water use.Water, which is already a scarce resource in the MINK region, would become much scarcer if the climate of the 1930s were to become the norm. Mean assessed total streamflow would drop to 69% of the control climate level for the Missouri River Basin, 71% for the Upper Mississippi, and 93% for the Arkansas. Even in the absence of climate change, MINK will have less water in the year 2030 than it does today because groundwater stocks are being depleted and increased upstream diversions would reduce surface flows into these states. Irrigation and instream uses such as navigation, hydroelectric power production, recreation, and fish and wildlife habitat would be most adversely, impacted by the climate-induced changes in water supplies.  相似文献   

2.
This paper analyzes the impact of climate, crop production technology, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on current and future crop yields. The analysis of crop yields endeavors to advance the literature by estimating the effect of atmospheric CO2 on observed crop yields. This is done using an econometric model estimated over pooled historical data for 1950–2009 and data from the free air CO2 enrichment experiments. The main econometric findings are: 1) Yields of C3 crops (soybeans, cotton, and wheat) directly respond to the elevated CO2, while yields of C4 crops (corn and sorghum) do not, but they are found to indirectly benefit from elevated CO2 in times and places of drought stress; 2) The effect of technological progress on mean yields is non-linear; 3) Ignoring atmospheric CO2 in an econometric model of crop yield likely leads to overestimates of the pure effects of technological progress on crop yields of about 51, 15, 17, 9, and 1 % of observed yield gain for cotton, soybeans, wheat, corn and sorghum, respectively; 4) Average climate conditions and climate variability contribute in a statistically significant way to average crop yields and their variability; and 5) The effect of CO2 fertilization generally outweighs the effect of climate change on mean crop yields in many regions resulting in an increase of 7–22, 4–47, 5–26, 65–96, and 3–35 % for yields of corn, sorghum, soybeans, cotton, and wheat, respectively.  相似文献   

3.
The impacts of climate change on the agricultural, energy, forestry, and water sectors of MINK would reverberate negatively throughout the regional economy. Allowing for sectoral adjustments to the new climate, however, the decline in regional income and production would not likely exceed 1–2%. The largest economy-wide impacts would be by way of the agricultural and water sectors. The impacts by way of forestry and energy would be negligible, unless the nation adopts a program of massive reforestation to capture CO2, which would positively affect the regional economy.  相似文献   

4.
A four step methodology has been developed for study of the regional impacts of climate change and the possible responses thereto. First the region's climate sensitive sectors and total economy are described (Task A, current baseline). Next a scenario of climate change is imposed on the current baseline (Task B, current baseline with climate change). A new baseline describing the climate sensitive sectors and total regional economy is projected for some time in the future (Task C, future baseline, year 2030) in the absence of climate change. Finally, the climate change scenario is reimposed on the future baseline (Task D, future baseline with climate change). Impacts of the climate change scenario on the current and future regional economies are determined by means of simulation models and other appropriate techniques. These techniques are also used to assess the impacts of an elevated CO2 concentration (450 ppm) and of various forms of adjustments and adaptations. The region chosen for the first test of the methodology is composed of the four U.S. states of Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas. The climate change scenario is the actual weather of the 1930s decade in the MINK region. ‘Current’ climate is the actual weather of the period 1951–1980.  相似文献   

5.
A nested regional climate model is used to generate a scenario of climate change over the MINK region (Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas) due to doubling of carbon dioxide concentration (2 × CO2) for use in agricultural impact assessment studies. Five-year long present day (control) and 2 × CO2 simulations are completed at a horizontal grid point spacing of 50 km. Monthly and seasonal precipitation and surface air temperature over the MINK region are reproduced well by the model in the control run, except for an underestimation of both variables during the spring months. The performance of the nested model in the control run is greatly improved compared to a similar experiment performed with a previous version of the nested modeling system by Giorgi et al. (1994). The nested model generally improves the simulation of spatial precipitation patterns compared to the driving general circulation model (GCM), especially during the summer. Seasonal surface warming of 4 to 6 K and seasonal precipitation increases of 6 to 24% are simulated in 2 × CO2 conditions. The control run temperature biases are smaller than the simulated changes in all seasons, while the precipitation biases are of the same order of magnitude as the simulated changes. Although the large scale patterns of change in the driving GCM and nested RegCM model are similar, significant differences between the models, and substantial spatial variability, occur within the MINK region.  相似文献   

6.
Climate change impacts on regional rice production in China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Rice (Oryza sativa L.) production is an important contributor to China’s food security. Climate change, and its impact on rice production, presents challenges in meeting China’s future rice production requirements. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of how rice yield responds to climate change under different scenarios and assessed the associated simulation uncertainties of various regional-scale climate models. Simulation was performed based on a regional calibrated crop model (CERES-Rice) and spatially matched climatic (from 17 global climate models), soil, management, and cultivar parameters. Grain-filling periods for early rice were shortened by 2–7 days in three time slices (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s), whereas grain-filling periods for late rice were shortened by 10–19 days in three time slices. Most of the negative effects of climate change were predicted to affect single-crop rice in central China. Average yields of single-crop rice treated with CO2 fertiliser in central China were predicted to be reduced by 10, 11, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively, compared to the 2000s, if planting dates remained unchanged. If planting dates were optimised, single-crop rice yields were predicted to increase by 3, 7, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively. In response to climate changes, early and single-crop rice should be planted earlier, and late rice planting should be delayed. The predicted net effect would be to prolong the grain-filling period and optimise rice yield.  相似文献   

7.
Rice is the staple food in China, and the country’s enlarging population puts increasing pressure on its rice production as well as on that of the world. In this study, we estimate the impact of climate change, CO2 fertilization, crop adaptation and the interactions of these three factors on the rice yields of China using model simulation with four hypothetical scenarios. According to the results of the model simulation, the rice yields without CO2 fertilization are predicted to decrease by 3.3 % in the 2040s. Considering a constant rice-growing season (GS), the rice yields are predicted to increase by 3.2 %. When the effect of CO2 fertilization is integrated into the Agro-C model, the expected rice yields increase by 20.9 %. When constant GS and CO2 fertilization are both integrated into the model, the predicted rice yield increases by 28.6 %. In summary, the rice yields in China are predicted to decrease in the 2040s by 0.22 t/ha due to climate change, to increase by 0.44 t/ha due to a constant GS and to increase by 1.65 t/ha due to CO2 fertilization. The benefits of crop adaptation would completely offset the negative impact of climate change. In the future, the most of the positive effects of climate change are expected to occur in northeastern and northwestern China, and the expansion of rice cultivation in northeastern China should further enhance the stability of rice production in China.  相似文献   

8.
Research on climate change and agriculture has largely focused on production, food prices, and producer incomes. However, societal interest in agriculture is much broader than these issues. The objective of this paper is to analyze the potential impacts of climate change on an important negative externality from agriculture, water quality. We construct a simulation model of maize production in twelve watersheds within the U.S. Chesapeake Bay Region that has economic and watershed components linking climate to productivity, production decisions by maize farmers, and nitrogen loadings delivered to the Chesapeake Bay. Maize is an important crop to study because of its importance to the region's agriculture and because it is a major source of nutrient pollution. The model is run under alternative scenarios regarding the future climate, future baseline (without any climate change), whether farmers respond to climate change, whether there are carbon dioxide (CO2) enrichment effects on maize production, and whether agricultural prices facing the region change due to climate change impacts on global agricultural commodity markets. The simulation results differ from one scenario to another on the magnitude and direction of change in nitrogen deliveries to the Chesapeake Bay. The results are highly sensitive to the choice of future baseline scenario and to whether there are CO2 enrichment effects. The results are also highly sensitive to assumptions about the impact of climate change on commodity prices facing farmers in the Chesapeake Bay region. The results indicate that economic responses by farmers to climate change definitely matter. Assuming that farmers do not respond to changes in temperature, precipitation, and atmosphericCO2 levels could lead to mistaken conclusions about the magnitude and direction of environmental impacts.  相似文献   

9.
Highlights of the previous papers in this series are reviewed. Methodology developed for the MINK study has improved the ability of impacts analysis to deal with questions of (1) spatial and temporal variability in climate change; (2) CO2-enrichment effects; (3) the reactions of complex enterprises (farms and forests) to climate change and their ability to adjust and adapt; and (4) integrated effects on current and, more particularly, on future regional economies. The methodology also provides for systematic study of adjustment and adaptation opportunities and of the inter-industry linkages that determine what the overall impacts on the regional economy might be. The analysis shows that with a 1930s dust bowl climate the region-wide economic impacts would be small, after adjustments in affected sectors. In this final paper we consider whether synergistic effects among sectoral impacts and more severe climate change scenarios might alter this conclusion. The MINK analysis, as is, leads to the conclusion that a strong research capacity will be required to ensure that technologies facilitating adaptation to climate change will be available when needed. The capacity to deal with climate change also requires an open economy allowing for free trade and movement of people and for institutions that protect unpriced environmental values. More severe climate scenarios and negative synergisms can only strengthen these conclusions.  相似文献   

10.
Crop models are useful tools for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production. The dynamic crop-growth model, CERES-Wheat is used to examine crop management responses, including yield, under six climate change scenarios for the years 2025 and 2050 on the Estate of Imperial College at Wye, Kent, U.K. Sensitivity analysis shows a dry matter yield decrease in response to increases in temperature alone. CERES-Wheat was then constrained to assess the crop performance under water-limited production scenarios with different soils, and the results show that crop grain yield actually increases, largely due to CO2 fertilisation leading to increased rates of photosynthesis. Different management practices (planting dates and nitrogen application) were applied to find the best adaptation strategies. In general, `early' sowing (10th September) had the highest simulated yield, and `late' sowing (10th November) the lowest. For the soils tested, the highest and sustained crop production was obtained from Hamble soils (silt loam) compared with either the Fyfield (sandy) or Denchworth (clay). Adding nitrogen and other fertilisers would likely be necessary to take full advantage of the CO2 fertilisationeffect and to compensate, in some cases, for yield losses caused by climate change where water shortage becomes serious.  相似文献   

11.
This paper assesses the impact of climate change on irrigated rice yield using B2 climate change scenario from the Regional Climate Model (RCM) and CERES-rice model during 2071--2090. Eight typical rice stations ranging in latitude, longitude, and elevation that are located in the main rice ecological zones of China are selected for impact assessment. First, Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES)-rice model is validated using farm experiment data in selected stations. The simulated results represent satisfactorily the trend of flowering duration and yields. The deviation of simulation within ± 10% of observed flowering duration and ± 15% of observed yield. Second, the errors of the outputs of RCM due to the difference of topography between station point and grid point is corrected. The corrected output of the RCM used for simulating rice flowering duration and yield is more reliable than the not corrected. Without CO2 direct effect on crop, the results from the assessment explore that B2 climate change scenario would have a negative impact on rice yield at most rice stations and have little impacts at Fuzhou and Kunming. To find the change of inter-annual rice yield, a preliminary assessment is made based on comparative cumulative probability at low and high yield and the coefficient variable of yield between the B2 scenario and baseline. Without the CO2 direct effect on rice yield, the result indicates that frequency for low yield would increase and it reverses for high yield, and the variance for rice yield would increase. It is concluded that high frequency at low yield and high variances of rice yield could pose a threat to rice yield at most selected stations in the main rice areas of China. With the CO2 direct effect on rice yield, rice yield increase in all selected stations.  相似文献   

12.
Crop growth models, used in climate change impact assessments to project production on a local scale, can obtain the daily weather information to drive them from models of the Earth's climate. General Circulation Models (GCMs), often used for this purpose, provide weather information for the entire globe but often cannot depict details of regional climates especially where complex topography plays an important role in weather patterns. The U.S. Pacific Northwest is an important wheat growing region where climate patterns are difficult to resolve with a coarse scale GCM. Here, we use the PNNL Regional Climate Model (RCM) which uses a sub-grid parameterization to resolve the complex topography and simulate meteorology to drive the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) crop model. The climate scenarios were extracted from the PNNL-RCM baseline and 2 × CO2 simulationsfor each of sixteen 90 km2 grid cells of the RCM, with differentiation byelevation and without correction for climate biases. The dominant agricultural soil type and farm management practices were established for each grid cell. Using these climate and management data in EPIC, we simulated winter wheat production in eastern Washington for current climate conditions (baseline) and a 2 × CO2 `greenhouse' scenario of climate change.Dryland wheat yields for the baseline climate averaged 4.52 Mg ha–1 across the study region. Yields were zero at high elevations where temperatures were too low to allow the crops to mature. The highest yields (7.32 Mgha–1) occurred at intermediate elevations with sufficientprecipitation and mild temperatures. Mean yield of dryland winter wheat increased to 5.45 Mg ha–1 for the 2 × CO2 climate, which wasmarkedly warmer and wetter. Simulated yields of irrigated wheat were generally higher than dryland yields and followed the same pattern but were, of course, less sensitive to increases in precipitation. Increases in dryland and irrigated wheat yields were due, principally, to decreases in the frequency of temperature and water stress. This study shows that the elevation of a farm is a more important determinant of yield than farm location in eastern Washington and that climate changes would affect wheat yields at all farms in the study.  相似文献   

13.
During this century global warming will lead to changes in global weather and climate, affecting many aspects of our environment. Agriculture is the sector of the United States economy most likely to be directly impacted by climatic changes. We have examined potential changes in dryland agriculture (Part 3) and in water resources necessary for crop production (Part 4) in response to a set of climate change scenarios. In this paper we assess to what extent, under these same scenarios, water supplies will be sufficient to meet the irrigation requirement of major grain crops in the US. In addition, we assess the overall impacts of changes in water supply on national grain production. We apply the 12 climate change scenarios described in Part 1 to the water resources and crop growth simulation models described in Part 2 for the conterminous United States. Drawing on data from Parts 3 and 4 we calculate what the aggregate national production would be in those regions in which grain crops are currently produced by applying irrigation where needed and water supplies allow. The total amount of irrigation water applied to crops declines under all climate change scenarios employed in this study. Under certain of the scenarios and in particular regions, precipitation decreases so much that water supplies are too limited; in other regions precipitation becomes so plentiful that little value is derived from irrigation. Nationwide grain crop production is greater when irrigation is applied as needed. Under irrigation, less corn and soybeans are produced under most of the climate change scenarios than is produced under baseline climate conditions. Winter wheat production under irrigation responds significantly to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2] and appears likely to increase under climate change.  相似文献   

14.
Abstract

This study, using a climate change scenario generated by the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) general circulation model (GCM) examines the impacts of such a climate change on agriculture in southern Quebec. Using a crop model from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), yield responses of a variety of cereals, legumes, oleaginous and special crops to climate change are analysed and discussed.

Results show that under the 2 × CO2 climate scenario the growing season would be longer and accumulation of corn heat units and growing degree days would be more important than under actual climate (1961–1990). One of the more important results of this study is that, on the one hand yield of C3 cereals would be lower and that of C4 cereals higher in most agricultural regions. On the other hand, the direct fertilisation effect of increased CO2 is not considered. It must be cautioned however that we can not generalise results obtained for one legume crop to all legumes.  相似文献   

15.
A crop-growth-simulation model based on SUCROS87 was used to study effects of temperature rise and increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration on wheat yields in several regions in Europe. The model simulated potential and water-limited crop production (growth with ample supply of nutrients and in the absence of damage by pests, diseases and weeds). Historic daily weather data from 13 sites in Western Europe were used as starting point.For potential production (optimal water) a 3 °C temperature rise led to a yield decline due to a shortening of the growing period on all locations. Doubling of the CO2 concentration caused an increase in yield of 40% due to higher assimilation rates. It was found that effects of higher temperature and higher CO2 concentration were nearly additive and the combination of both led to a yield increase of 1–2 ton ha-1. A very small CO2-temperature interaction was found: the effect of doubled CO2 concentration on crop yield was larger at higher temperatures. The inter-annual yield variability was hardly affected.When water was limiting crop-production effects of temperature rise and higher CO2 levels were different than for the potential production. Rise in temperature led to a smaller yield reduction, doubled CO2 concentration to a larger yield increase and combination of both led to a large yield increase (3 ton ha-1) in comparison with yields simulated for the present situation. Both rise in temperature and increase in the CO2 concentration reduced water requirements of the crop. Water shortages became smaller, leading to a reduction in inter-annual variability. It is concluded that when no major changes in precipitation pattern occur a climate change will not affect wheat yields since negative effects of higher temperatures are compensated by positive effects of CO2 enrichment.  相似文献   

16.
This modeling study addresses the potential impacts of climate change and changing climate variability due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration on soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merrill) yields in theMidwestern Great Lakes Region. Nine representative farm locations and six future climate scenarios were analyzed using the crop growth model SOYGRO. Under the future climate scenarios earlierplanting dates produced soybean yield increases of up to 120% above current levels in the central and northern areas of the study region. In the southern areas, comparatively small increases (0.1 to 20%) and small decreases (–0.1 to–25%) in yield are found. The decreases in yield occurred under the Hadley Center greenhouse gas run (HadCM2-GHG), representing a greater warming, and the doubled climate variability scenario – a more extreme and variableclimate. Optimum planting dates become later in the southern regions. CO2fertilization effects (555 ppmv) are found to be significant for soybean, increasing yields around 20% under future climate scenarios.For the study region as a whole the climate changes modeled in this research would have an overall beneficial effect, with mean soybean yield increases of 40% over current levels.  相似文献   

17.
Here we simulate dryland agriculture in the United States in order to assess potential future agricultural production under a set of general circulation model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The total national production of three major grain crops—corn, soybeans, and winter wheat—and two forage crops—alfalfa and clover hay—is calculated for the actual present day core production area (CPA) of each of these crops. In general, higher global mean temperature (GMT) reduces production and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) increases production. Depending on the climatic change scenarios employed overall national production of the crops studied changes by up to plus or minus 25% from present-day levels. Impacts are more significant regionally, with crop production varying by greater than ±50% from baseline levels. Analysis of currently possible production areas (CPPAs) for each crop indicates that the regions most likely to be affected by climate change are those on the margins of the areas in which they are currently grown. Crop yield variability was found to be primarily influenced by local weather and geographic features rather than by large-scale changes in climate patterns and atmospheric composition. Future US agronomic potential will be significantly affected by the changes in climate projected here. The nature of the crop response will depend primarily on to what extent precipitation patterns change and also on the degree of warming experienced.  相似文献   

18.
Increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases are expected to contribute to a global warming. This paper examines the potential implications of a climatic change corresponding to a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of CO2 on crop production opportunities throughout Ontario, a major food producing region in Canada. The climate is projected to become warmer and drier, but the extent of these shifts are expected to vary from region to region within Ontario. The effect of this altered climate on crop yields and the area of land capable of supporting specific crops varies according to region, soil quality and crop type. Most notable are the enhanced opportunities for grains and oilseeds in the northern regions, and the diminished production prospects for most crops in the most southerly parts of Ontario.  相似文献   

19.
The potential effects of climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) of U.S. rangelands were evaluated using estimated climate regimes from the A1B, A2 and B2 global change scenarios imposed on the biogeochemical cycling model, Biome-BGC from 2001 to 2100. Temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, day length, solar radiation, CO2 enrichment and nitrogen deposition were evaluated as drivers of NPP. Across all three scenarios, rangeland NPP increased by 0.26 % year?1 (7 kg C ha?1 year?1) but increases were not apparent until after 2030 and significant regional variation in NPP was revealed. The Desert Southwest and Southwest assessment regions exhibited declines in NPP of about 7 % by 2100, while the Northern and Southern Great Plains, Interior West and Eastern Prairies all experienced increases over 25 %. Grasslands dominated by warm season (C4 photosynthetic pathway) species showed the greatest response to temperature while cool season (C3 photosynthetic pathway) dominated regions responded most strongly to CO2 enrichment. Modeled NPP responses compared favorably with experimental results from CO2 manipulation experiments and to NPP estimates from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Collectively, these results indicate significant and asymmetric changes in NPP for U.S. rangelands may be expected.  相似文献   

20.
Summary The crop growth model CERES-Maize is used to estimate the direct (through enhanced fertilisation effect of ambient CO2) and indirect (through changed climate conditions) effects of increased concentration of atmospheric CO2 on maize yields. The analysis is based on multi-year crop model simulations run with daily weather series obtained alternatively by a direct modification of observed weather series and by a stochastic weather generator. The crop model is run in two settings: stressed yields are simulated in water and nutrient limited conditions, potential yields in water and nutrient unlimited conditions. The climate change scenario was constructed using the output from the ECHAM3/T42 model (temperature), regression relationships between temperature and solar radiation, and an expert judgement (precipitation). Results: (i) After omitting the two most extreme misfits, the standard error between the observed and modelled yields is 11%. (ii) The direct effect of doubled CO2: The stressed yields would increase by 36–41% in the present climate and by 61–66% in the 2 × CO2 climate. The potential yields would increase only by 9–10% as the improved water use efficiency does not apply. (iii) The indirect effect of doubled CO2: The stressed yields would decrease by 27–29% (14–16%) at present (doubled) ambient CO2 concentration. The increased temperature shortens the phenological phases and does not allow for the optimal development of the crop. The simultaneous decrease of precipitation and increase of temperature and solar radiation deepen the water stress, thereby reducing the yields. The reduction of the potential yields is significantly smaller as the effect of the increased water stress does not apply. (iv) If both direct and indirect effects of doubled CO2 are considered, the stressed yields should increase by 17–18%, and the potential yields by 5–14%. (v) The decrease of the stressed yields due to the indirect effect may be reduced by applying earlier planting dates. Received March 9, 2001 Revised September 25, 2001  相似文献   

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