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1.
Marek Brabec Viorel Badescu Marius Paulescu 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2013,120(1-2):61-71
In this paper, we present a formalized approach to statistical modeling of the sunshine number, binary indicator of whether the Sun is covered by clouds introduced previously by Badescu (Theor Appl Climatol 72:127–136, 2002). Our statistical approach is based on Markov chain and logistic regression and yields fully specified probability models that are relatively easily identified (and their unknown parameters estimated) from a set of empirical data (observed sunshine number and sunshine stability number series). We discuss general structure of the model and its advantages, demonstrate its performance on real data and compare its results to classical ARIMA approach as to a competitor. Since the model parameters have clear interpretation, we also illustrate how, e.g., their inter-seasonal stability can be tested. We conclude with an outlook to future developments oriented to construction of models allowing for practically desirable smooth transition between data observed with different frequencies and with a short discussion of technical problems that such a goal brings. 相似文献
2.
This paper focuses on different ways of characterizing the solar radiative regime of a day and the stability of this regime. The days may be stratified in classes of cloud shade, observed total cloud cover amount, daily averaged clearness index, and fractal dimension of the solar global irradiance signal. A new Boolean parameter related to solar irradiance fluctuation is defined, namely the sunshine stability number. The time averaged value of the sunshine stability number is used for the characterization of the radiative regime stability during a given time interval. Ranking the days from the view-point of the stability of their radiative regime is performed by using the daily average value of the sunshine stability number and appropriately defined values of disorder and complexity, respectively. Measurements performed in the Romanian town of Timisoara (latitude 45°46?? N, longitude 21°25?? E and 85?m altitude above mean sea level) are used here. They refer to time series of global and diffuse solar irradiance recorded at 15-s time interval between sunrise and sunset during all the days in 2009. 相似文献
3.
大气边界层湍流标量场的概率分布及其特征分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用2004年11月在白洋淀地区和2005年1月在中国科学院大气物理研究所北京325 m气象塔的47 m高度由超声风温仪和水汽二氧化碳分析仪观测的湍流脉动资料,分析了大气边界层不同下垫面湍流标量场(温度、水汽和二氧化碳)的概率分布及其特征。标量场的概率分布通常不同于高斯分布,而且还会产生偏斜,可以用指数分布描述。因此,标量的偏斜度通常不为0,陡峭度也往往比3大。非0偏斜度的出现可能是由湍流时间序列中的相干结构和间歇性部分造成的。其中,相干结构的存在使概率分布偏斜,但是,它们对偏斜度的贡献相对较小,而与概率分布的长尾现象有关的间歇性则会使偏斜度大大增加。温度、水汽和二氧化碳的平均偏斜度和陡峭度反应了标量场与稳定度、下垫面、天气条件、源汇等因素之间的关系。在不同下垫面,温度和感热通量的偏斜度随稳定度变化比较一致;水汽通量的偏斜度在稳定和不稳定条件下都为正,而水汽本身在不稳定条件下可能出现负的偏斜度;二氧化碳和二氧化碳通量的偏斜度受下垫面影响很大,在不同下垫面,偏斜度与稳定度之间的关系并不一致;而3个标量的陡峭度随稳定度的变化不显著,它们与相应的偏斜度之间存在平方关系。 相似文献
4.
C. A. Sansigolo 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1997,56(3-4):225-230
Summary Non-stationary, four-state Markov chains were used to model the sunshine daily ratios at São Paulo, Brazil. Fourier series were used to account for the periodic seasonal variations in the transition probabilities. All the regressions and tests, based on Generalized Linear Models, were made through the software GLIM. Significant seasonal variations were detected in the conditional probabilities, especially for the extreme categories of overcast and clear days. The fitted model provided a concise summary of the daily data, useful for short-range (1 day) sunshine predictions and simulations.With 6 Figures 相似文献
5.
V. Badescu 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2001,78(3-4):195-204
Summary
Stationarity of daily averaged surface pressure time series on Mars can be obtained (by differencing) for short time intervals
only. Large pressure variance intervals are usually associated with the dust storm season. Medium and small pressure variance
intervals can be found usually during clear sky periods. General auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models
were developed for daily average pressure forecasting at Viking Lander sites. A procedure to find the “appropriate” model
for a given time series was developed. It is based on various degrees of differencing the original time series and a t-statistics-assisted
estimation of the significance of the fitted coefficients. A method employing the cumulative spectrum of the residuals was
used to check the models. ARIMA (3,2,3) seems to be the most “appropriate” model to forecasting the daily average surface
pressure on Mars.
Received December 16, 1999/Revised October 17, 2000 相似文献
6.
Near-ground artificial cloud releases in the turbulent atmospheric boundary layer were investigated experimentally by Lidar
measurement techniques. Simple scaling relations between the average concentration and the lowest order moments are suggested
by simple analytical models, and the experimental results are tested against these hypotheses. We find strong evidence for
a simple scaling of the standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis with the average concentrations at the downwind distances
observed in our experiments. Near-ground concentration fluctuations in fixed as well as moving frames of references are investigated.
The scaling is supported by data from several experimental sites and different atmospheric stability conditions. One conclusion
of the study is that relatively accurate estimates for the standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis can be obtained for the
concentration fluctuations, given a reliable estimate of the space-time varying average concentration field. 相似文献
7.
通过对1961—2010年中国540个气象站逐日降水观测数据和高精度区域气候模式CCLM（COSMO model in climate mode）3839个格点模拟值的对比,检验CCLM模式对中国日降水的模拟能力,揭示了1961—2010年日降水分布格局的变化特征;同时利用CCLM模式对中国地区2011—2050年的日降水预估值（SRES-A1B情景）,运用概率统计和极值理论方法,分析了2011—2050年日降水序列及其极值的可能变化趋势。结果表明：除华南和青藏高原西部存在着较大的偏差以外,模式和观测日降水序列的峰度和偏度的分布格局较一致,空间相关系数达到0.75以上,CCLM能够很好地模拟中国日降水的分布特征。2011—2050年,峰度和偏度在江淮部分地区、东北与内蒙中东部等地区呈显著增加趋势,降水极端事件将会增多;最大日降水量和汛期最多无降水日数在上述地区的增加,进一步反映干旱和洪涝出现概率将升高。 相似文献
8.
以新疆区域500 m×500 m分辨率的数字高程模型(DEM)数据为主要数据源,在提取纬度、坡度、坡向等地形要素栅格数据的基础上,使用考虑地形遮蔽的分布式计算模型,完成了新疆区域全年每日可照时间的数值模拟计算,分析了其时空变化特征,讨论了地形因子对可照时间的影响,结果表明:对新疆而言,可照时间7月最长,为441 h;12月最短,为266 h,区域内可照时间的离散度较大,主要原因是地形差异所致;海拔高于1500 m的山区对全区可照时间标准差的贡献率达到了80.1%;冬夏两季有较为显著的纬向分布特征,三大山脉地区可照时间与同纬度平地相比差异明显,表现出可照时间的地域性分布特征;地形对可照时间的影响比较明显,坡度越大可照时间越少;坡向对可照时间的影响主要表现在冬季,大致为可照时间南坡多、北坡少;随着地形开阔度的增大,可照时间有较为明显的增加。 相似文献
9.
Spatial patterns of the standard deviation and skewness of daily and monthly mean summer temperature were studied with the climate model Institute of Numerical Mathematics Climate Model version 4 for three scenarios: simulation of the preindustrial climate, effect of quadrupling CO2 concentrations, and simulation of transient climate change for the period 1850–2100. In high skewness regions of the simulated preindustrial climate, hot periods exceeded the number expected for a normal distribution by a factor of 2–8. In the model in which CO2 concentrations were quadrupled, we found an increase in standard deviation and a northward shift of the area with positive skewness compared with the preindustrial scenario. The maximum increase in summer mean temperature was found in subtropical areas. The maximum increase in temperature averaged over the warmest 30 % of days was about 500 km to the north of the region of maximum increase of seasonal mean temperature, in the area where standard deviation was increased. The maximum increase in temperature averaged over the warmest 0.1 % of days was 500 km further north again, in an area of increased skewness. In the transient climate change simulation for 1850–2100, there was a noticeable increase in temperature of the warmest days exceeding the summer mean temperature in regions with increased skewness. In regions with decreased skewness, there was only a small increase or no rise at all in temperature for the warmest days under transient global warming. 相似文献
10.
Wind field simulation in the surface layer is often used to manage natural resources in terms of air quality,gene flow(through pollen drift),and plant disease transmission(spore dispersion).Although Lagrangian stochastic(LS)models describe stochastic wind behaviors,such models assume that wind velocities follow Gaussian distributions.However,measured surface-layer wind velocities show a strong skewness and kurtosis.This paper presents an improved model,a non-Gaussian LS model,which incorporates controllable non-Gaussian random variables to simulate the targeted non-Gaussian velocity distribution with more accurate skewness and kurtosis.Wind velocity statistics generated by the non-Gaussian model are evaluated by using the field data from the Cooperative Atmospheric Surface Exchange Study,October 1999 experimental dataset and comparing the data with statistics from the original Gaussian model.Results show that the non-Gaussian model improves the wind trajectory simulation by stably producing precise skewness and kurtosis in simulated wind velocities without sacrificing other features of the traditional Gaussian LS model,such as the accuracy in the mean and variance of simulated velocities.This improvement also leads to better accuracy in friction velocity(i.e.,a coupling of three-dimensional velocities).The model can also accommodate various non-Gaussian wind fields and a wide range of skewness–kurtosis combinations.Moreover,improved skewness and kurtosis in the simulated velocity will result in a significantly different dispersion for wind/particle simulations.Thus,the non-Gaussian model is worth applying to wind field simulation in the surface layer. 相似文献
11.
利用林芝国家基准气侯站冬季(2018年12月-2019年2月),CHP1型太阳直接辐射传感器、DFC2型光电式数字日照计、暗筒式日照计在不同天气模式下的测量值分类进行对比分析。结果表明：三种仪器两两测量值对比绝对偏差和相对偏差,直接辐射传感器测量值在“阴云”、“多云”、“云晴”比暗筒式日照计低,从大到小的顺序为“晴天”＞“阴云”＞“多云”。DFC2型光电式数字日照计仅“晴天”测量值比暗筒式日照计高,其余则低。从大到小顺序为“晴天”＞“多云”＞“阴云”;三种设备测量值可以相互替代,取消人工观测设备后,日照资料可以合并使用。 相似文献
12.
The flux-gradient model, often used to describe turbulent dispersion, implicitly defines an eddy diffusion coefficient K that is known to be related to the Eulerian probability density function (pdf) of the turbulent velocity field. In the strict limit of applicability of Fick's law, the relationship between K and the pdf is used to investigate the influence of non-Gaussianity on dispersion in homogeneous turbulence. A bi-Gaussian pdf is used as a closure model that allows for separate studies of skewness and kurtosis variations. The choice of model parameters can have a significant influence on K, especially when the pdf is bimodal. Both arbitrariness of the closure and bimodality are then reduced using the maximum entropy criterion for the selection of the free parameter of the closure scheme, together with the assumption that the model is valid only for those values of the parameters for which a unimodal pdf is possible. The variations of K are found to be sensitive to both skewness and kurtosis showing a more complex behaviour than that found in literature. 相似文献
13.
Two important atmospheric features affecting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are atmospheric noise and a nonlinear atmospheric response to SST. In this article, we investigate the roles of these atmospheric features in ENSO in observations and coupled Global Climate Models (GCMs). We first quantify the most important linear couplings between the ocean and atmosphere. We then characterize atmospheric noise by its patterns of standard deviation and skewness and by spatial and temporal correlations. GCMs tend to simulate lower noise amplitudes than observations. Additionally, we investigate the strength of a nonlinear response of wind stress to SST. Some GCMs are able to simulate a nonlinear response of wind stress to SST, although weaker than in observations. These models simulate the most realistic SST skewness. The influence of the couplings and noise terms on ENSO are studied with an Intermediate Climate Model (ICM). With couplings and noise terms fitted to either observations or GCM output, the simulated climates of the ICM versions show differences in ENSO characteristics similar to differences in ENSO characteristics in the original data. In these model versions the skewness of noise is of minor influence on ENSO than the standard deviation of noise. Both the nonlinear response of wind stress to SST anomalies and the relation of noise to the background SST contribute to SST skewness. The ICM is not yet fully evolved, the results rather show that this is a promising route. Overall, atmospheric noise with realistic standard deviation pattern and spatial correlations seems to be important for simulating an irregular ENSO. Both a nonlinear atmospheric response to SST and the dependence of noise on the background SST influence the El Niño/La Niña asymmetry. 相似文献
14.
为讨论不同时间序列模型对电离层垂直总电子含量（VTEC）的预报效果,在平静电离层条件下,采用载波相位平滑伪距法解算单站上空的电离层VTEC值,分别利用自回归积分滑动平均模型（ARIMA）与Holt-Winters指数平滑模型进行逐站建模,通过时长为9 d的样本序列实现3 d预报,并对预报值进行系统评估.结果表明,时间序列模型能够较好地反映预报期内的电离层VTEC变化情况,均方根误差均值不超5 TECU.此外,Holt-Winters乘法模型的预报值偏差最大,加法模型次之,ARIMA模型在11个测站的相对精度都高于Holt-Winters指数平滑模型,且其均方根误差峰值最小,具有最高的预报精度. 相似文献
15.
Radar measurements of wave height are compared with independent measurements made during the JONSWAP-2 experiment by Waverider and pitch-roll buoys, a shipborne wave recorder and a laser profilometer. The radar data were recorded by a Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) nanosecond-pulse X-band radar altimeter flown in a NASA C-54 aircraft at 3-km altitude under various wind and sea conditions. Averages of 800 pulses of the pulse-limited altimeter data were used to calculate maximum-likelihood estimates of significant wave height (SWH) and skewness of the sea-surface height distribution. The mean values of the radar-estimated SWH were in good agreement with the other measurements. The standard deviation of the values of the radar measurements was typically 10% of the average wave height. A two-dimensional computer simulation of the sea surface indicates that the major portion of the observed standard deviation is attributable to the relatively small sea-surface area illuminated by the radar (125 m × 900 m) rather than to instrumental error. Increasing the number of pulses averaged reduced the variance in the estimates without changing the means. The mean value of the skewness parameter was generally near zero but the standard deviation was typically 0.25. The estimate of SWH did not change when the skewness parameter was constrained to zero. 相似文献
16.
中国三峡地区汛期降水量的正态性研究 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
为了分析三峡地区降水量序列的正态性和谱结构,对降水量的常见各种变换进行试验性研究。试验包括单站降水量、降水量的平方根、立方根和Γ分布概率值等非线性变换,以及级别变换。研究区域多站平均降水量、区域降水量的主分量、区域降水量的非线性变换后的主分量和区域降水量的级别变换后的主分量等序列。研究发现三峡地区单站降水量的各种变换不改变序列原始谱结构,仅影响概率分布的偏度和峰度,使其较好地遵从正态分布,其中以Γ分布的变换以及级别变换在分布的偏度上为最好。 区域降水量的各种变换的综合指数(区域平均值和主分量)正态性及谱结构分析表明,除区域平均值变换后不改变原单站序列的谱结构外,主分量的综合指数能改变原单站序列的谱结构,同时也影响概率分布的偏度和峰度,使其能较好地遵从正态分布。其中以降水量的立方根和Γ分布概率变换以及级别变换,在分布的偏度上有较好的效果。 相似文献
17.
X. Lana M. D. Martínez A. Burgueño C. Serra 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2009,97(1-2):135-150
Spatial patterns and statistical models for hot and cold events affecting Catalonia (NE Spain) are obtained from series of daily maximum and minimum temperatures recorded at 65 meteorological stations throughout the period 1950–2004. The study is based on the crossing theory, taking care that daily temperatures are normally distributed and previous data treatments (removal of trends and periodicities) assure their stationary character. With the aim of facilitating comparisons among different thermometric records, hot and cold events are defined as large departures, given in standard deviations, of daily temperatures from daily averages. From the statistical point of view, the assumption of a normal distribution of the initial date of the events is questionable and a simple assignment of hot events to summer and cold events to winter must be discarded according to the averaged initial dates and their standard deviations. The event magnitudes, defined as the absolute value of their maximum departures, follow an exponential distribution and event lengths can be modelled by an autoregressive Markov process with a Gaussian noise component. The number of events per year fits a Poisson distribution well only for high departures and the whole number of hot and cold events decays exponentially with the increasing departure for every temperature series. This property permits an estimation of the expected maximum departure for every thermometric station during the recording period. Even though spatial features observed for the number of events, their mean initial date, average event magnitude and average event length depict quite complex patterns due to the orography of the country and the vicinity to the Mediterranean Sea, the results obtained improve the knowledge on the hot and cold events in Catalonia. 相似文献
18.
Skewness(S) and kurtosis(K) of temperature in the surface layer over a grassland are investigated under unstable thermal stratifications. We find that both skewness and kurtosis generally obey Monin–Obukhov similarity theory and tend to be constant values(1.5 and 5.3, respectively) when the stability parameter z/L -2. Quantitative formulas of the similarity functions are proposed. The temperature probability density function(PDF) is close to Gaussian in near neutral stratification and non-Gaussian in unstable stratification. The influence of coherent motions on the PDF behavior is analyzed using the quadrant analysis technique. It shows that PDF behaviors are controlled by ejections and sweeps. The results also indicate that the PDF type of the ejections always follows a Gaussian distribution, while the PDF of the sweeps changes with stability. 相似文献
19.
利用贵州省78个气象站1969—2019年秋季（9月1日—11月30日）的逐日降水量和日照时数资料以及同期NCEP/NCAR再分析资料，分析贵州省秋季无日照连阴雨发生频次、持续时间和时空分布特征，并选取5次典型过程进行环流诊断。结果表明：近51年来，贵州省秋季无日照雨日数10月最多，9月最少，秋季无日照雨日降水量最大的是9—10月，11月降水量最少。秋季累计贵州省平均无日照雨日数为27.3 d/a，贵州省多年平均秋季无日照降水量为183.2mm/a，均呈北多南少的分布型。贵州省东北部发生轻级（5～6 d）无日照连阴雨的频次最多，重级以上（10 d以上）无日照连阴雨过程主要发生在贵州省西北部。厄尔尼诺发生年，印度洋偶极子正位相，高原及其以西地区、印度洋多低值系统发展活动频繁，有利于贵州省出现连阴雨过程。 相似文献
20.
Analysis of Urban Atmosphere Plume Concentration Fluctuations 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Dennis Finn Kirk L. Clawson Roger G. Carter Jason D. Rich Chris Biltoft Martin Leach 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2010,136(3):431-456
Concentration variability in the fast-response tracer dataset for continuous, near-surface, point source releases in the urban
core from the Joint Urban 2003 field study is analyzed. Concentration variability for conditionally and unconditionally sampled
time series is characterized by probability densities, concentration fluctuation intensity, skewness, and kurtosis. Significant
day-night differences in plume dispersion are observed. Relative to daytime, nighttime plumes were more likely to have reduced
concentration fluctuation intensities, higher normalized surface concentrations, suppressed vertical mixing, and a greater
prevalence of Gaussian-like distributions rather than log-normal or mixed mode distributions. This was in spite of the similar
stability and turbulence conditions in the urban core for day and night. The potential roles of flow meander and thermal stability
in explaining these differences are examined. Probability densities of concentration are found to be a strong function of
fluctuation intensity. There are few differences in probability densities between day and night when classified by fluctuation
intensity. There are no appreciable differences between conditional and unconditional probability densities and only small
differences between conditional and unconditional sampling statistics relative to the larger differences usually observed
in more homogeneous settings. Fluctuation intensity, skewness, and kurtosis are higher for the daytime experiments, and closer
to the source, but show little difference between conditional and unconditional results over most of their range of values.
The log-normal distribution provides a better overall fit to a broader range of the dataset than the exponential or clipped-normal
distributions. 相似文献