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1.
秸秆焚烧导致湖北中东部一次严重霾天气过程的分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用地面气象要素、火点信息及污染物资料,研究了2014年6月12~13日湖北省中东部地区一次重度霾天气的成因及污染特征。结果表明:导致此次霾天气的主要原因是安徽省北部大面积秸秆焚烧所形成污染气团受偏东北气流输送的影响,12日在湖北中东部形成了两条"带状"的能见度低值区,最低能见度仅为2.1 km。秸秆焚烧污染物输送气流由北向南影响湖北,主要作用于孝感—武汉—咸宁一带,3个地区细颗粒物(PM2.5)峰值浓度均超过了600μg/m3,且武汉和孝感的PM2.5与PM10质量浓度比值在12日增加到0.76和0.77,并出现了0.96和0.93的最大值,随着污染气团的传输,其中PM2.5所占比例会出现明显下降。SO2质量浓度的变化特征不显著,NO2质量浓度在污染物质量浓度达到峰值前1~3 h达到峰值,而CO是秸秆焚烧产生的主要污染气体,其质量浓度变化与PM2.5和PM10呈正相关关系,相关系数分别为0.66和0.67。风矢量和分析表明:6月12日湖北省中东部存在明显的东北来向气流输送,污染物的输送是该时段霾天气发生的主要影响因子,而6月13日湖北省东北边界处的输送气流已经明显减弱消失,东南部风矢量和异常偏小导致的污染物堆积是该地区污染持续的主要原因。 相似文献
2.
鄂中东部两次秸秆焚烧引发的严重灰霾天气分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用气象卫星监测、微波辐射计、常规气象观测、NCEP再分析资料及环境监测等资料,采用气流后向轨迹模拟,对2012年6月11日和6月15日发生在鄂中东部的两次灰霾天气,从特征和成因进行了综合分析。结果表明,这两日的污染物指数（API）分别达到233 μg/m3和139 μg/m3,11日PM2.5最高值达141 μg/m3 ;两日的能见度均在2 km以下,11日平均能见度仅565 m,最低能见度246 m。这两次灰霾天气与北方冬小麦主产区大范围秸秆集中焚烧,造成大量污染物排放有密切关系。在115°E,39°～32°N存在大范围逆温层,垂直高度950~850 hPa 厚度为一致的东北气流,使得排放的污染物在“逆温层盖”的阻挡下不能向高空扩散,而随东北气流向鄂中东部输送。同时鄂中东部近地面静风、地面“均压场”、逆温、近地层弱垂直速度、正涡度和负散度等物理量条件,及适宜的湿度条件等因素,导致污染物不能及时扩散或沉降,为灰霾在本地形成和维持提供了有利的气象条件,加剧了灰霾的严重性。 相似文献
3.
两次秸秆焚烧污染过程的气象条件对比分析 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
利用常规气象资料、卫星遥感监测资料、污染物浓度资料和NECP/NCAR再分析资料,结合气流后向轨迹模拟,对比分析了南京地区2011年6月10和13日两次由于秸秆焚烧而引起的严重空气污染事件的天气条件、大气边界层特征以及污染物的来源和输送路径等。结果表明：两次污染过程中PM2.5浓度均出现陡升陡降,由秸秆焚烧而产生的细粒子贡献显著。13日高污染的持续时间和强度都高于10日,10日的高低空形势配置和物理量场有利于降水的产生,对污染物有一定的冲刷作用,而13日的高低空形势配置和物理量场则有利于污染物在边界层堆积。两次污染过程的边界层逆温均不明显。气流后向轨迹模拟表明,两次过程都是由区域污染输送造成的,都主要来源于苏中、苏北地区,13日的污染源可能还有苏南和安徽地区。 相似文献
4.
2011年11月10-14日苏州地区发生了一次严重灰霾天气过程,利用气象观测资料、探空资料及大气成分站监测资料对苏州三个站点的受污染情况进行了综合分析。结果表明：灰霾期间地面受弱气压场控制,风力较小,且有接地逆温的持续存在,大气水平和垂直输送都很弱,导致大量污染物在近地面堆积,能见度恶化;三站中昆山站灰霾持续时间最长,共计104时次,影响程度最重,重度灰霾占总数的39 %,中度和重度灰霾超过灰霾总数的一半;灰霾时各粒径颗粒物浓度均维持在较高水平,细粒子在可吸入颗粒物中占有较大比重,说明细粒子对灰霾贡献作用大,14日凌晨昆山及太仓出现大雾天气时细粒子比重甚至超过了灰霾时,而相对湿度峰值只有94 %,因此将该段天气定性为雾霾共存或者湿性霾更妥;秸秆焚烧污染期间,BC浓度明显上升,其绝对浓度要高出正常情况的3倍左右;通过CO/SO2及PM10/SO2对比发现昆山站受秸秆焚烧污染程度要严重的多,因此推测昆山本地郊区可能也存在零星秸秆露天焚烧点。 相似文献
5.
京津冀地区一次严重霾天气过程及其影响因素分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用大气污染监测资料、常规气象观测资料及NCEP再分析资料,对2013年1月9—17日京津冀地区一次严重霾天气过程的特征及其与气象条件的关系进行分析。结果表明：此次霾天气过程京津冀地区6个城市（北京、天津、石家庄、保定、邯郸、唐山）的PM10、SO2和NO2污染物日平均浓度均较高,变化趋势基本相同,其中PM10日平均浓度的变化幅度最大,峰值出现在11—13日之间;石家庄、保定和邯郸市的污染最严重,PM10日平均浓度最大值分别为0.94 mg·m－3、0.95 mg·m－3和0.82 mg·m－3。SO2和NO2日平均浓度的变化幅度较小,但浓度值均较大,基本为0.10 mg·m－3以上。影响此次霾天气过程的大范围环流形势为纬向型,存在较强的逆温层,弱下沉运动使近地层大气处于静稳状态,不利于污染物扩散,而近地面较小的风速和低层相对湿度小于90％为霾的形成提供了有利条件。另外,后向轨迹分析表明,此次污染过程京津冀地区的气团主要来自新疆地区,路径主要是从西北气流转为西南气流,携带南方的湿空气和污染物向京津冀地区输送。 相似文献
6.
2014年10月22-24日,哈尔滨地区发生了一次持续性的灰霾天气过程。本文利用气象观测资料和污染物浓度监测资料,分析了颗粒物的浓度演变特征、气象要素特征及产生持续性灰霾天气的可能原因。研究表明,该次过程中绝大部分时间能见度低于10 km,空气质量指数(AQI)指数最大时达到500。此次灰霾天气高空主要受偏西气流控制,环流较平直,过程前期地面受高压场后部影响,后期位于低压前部,灰霾期间风力较小,空气湿度条件较低,地面空气干燥;近地层虽然没有出现逆温,但气温垂直递减率较小,大气层结较稳定。 相似文献
7.
利用长株潭地区地面空气质量监测资料、常规地面气象资料及NCEP再分析资料和MODIS火点监测资料,结合HYSPLIT4后向轨迹模式,对2014年10月1718日长株潭地区一次严重霾天气过程的空气污染特征和成因进行综合分析。研究表明,长株潭地区此次严重霾天气污染事件的主要污染物为PM2.5,安徽南部和江西西北部地区秸秆焚烧产生的颗粒物,经高空偏东北气流引导输送到长株潭地区,是这次大范围烟霾天气的主要来源。长株潭地区西部高空槽区宽广,槽前西南气流较为强盛,地面受均压场控制,水平风速弱,为严重霾污染天气的维持提供了有利的环流条件。中低层逆温和大气底层湿度的增加,使污染物粒子不断累积;近地面连续静（小）风和风向的频繁转变,不利于污染物粒子的水平扩散;中下层弱的下沉气流、较低的混合层高度有利于污染物的垂直累积,为此次重度霾污染天气的发展、加强提供了有利的气象条件。 相似文献
8.
利用2010年南沙气象探测基地灰霾观测资料,采用灰霾数值预报系统对不同天气型灰霾过程进行数值模拟,研究珠三角地区空气污染的主要控制因子和主要污染成分及不同天气系统影响下各种排放源对珠三角地区的污染贡献。结果表明：灰霾数值预报模式模拟值与实测值趋势基本一致,除个别极值外,模拟结果能较好和定性的反应珠三角地区各污染物浓度变化,是适合珠三角地区的灰霾数值预报系统。在易出现灰霾月的变性高压入海型和不易出现灰霾月的热带气旋外围下沉气流控制时,各污染物浓度均较高,特别是PM10、PM2.5、元素碳EC（Elemental Carbon）、有机碳OC（Organic Carbon）和CO浓度尤其明显。在易出现灰霾月冷空气南下时和不易出现灰霾月无明显天气系统影响时,元素碳EC、有机碳OC和CO浓度较低,其他污染物浓度接近零。无论是否出现灰霾,相对于空气中的其他污染物,元素碳EC、有机碳OC和CO浓度均较高,说明在珠三角地区碳污染较重。 相似文献
9.
一次由秸秆焚烧引起的霾天气分析 总被引：15，自引：1，他引：14
秸秆焚烧对空气质量有着负面的影响,并且会增加霾天气的发生几率.霾是一种由于大量尘粒子、烟粒子或盐粒子的存在使空气变混浊,进一步导致水平能见度下降的天气现象.结合2007年6月10日郑州市出现的一次严重霾天气,利用EOS/MODIS卫星遥感资料、高空探测资料、NCEP再分析资料以及地形高度资料,从焚烧点遥感监测、污染物轨迹、地形和气象条件四个方面出发进行机理分析.分析结果表明,秸秆焚烧产生的大量烟粒子、东南气流对粒子的输送以及大气层结中连续几天出现的逆温和"郑州弯"特殊的地形是造成这次霾天气发生的主要原因. 相似文献
10.
利用南京市空气污染资料、常规气象观测资料和NCEP再分析资料,对2008年10月28～29日南京、镇江、扬州、泰州、盐城等地区出现的一次大范围烟霾天气过程的空气污染状况、大尺度环流背景、微观气象要素特征以及影响天气系统的热力和动力场结构等进行了综合分析研究,并且运用Hysplit-4模式反演了这次过程影响南京地区污染物的扩散轨迹。结果表明:焚烧秸秆物引起的空气中高颗粒物浓度是造成这次大范围烟霾天气的直接原因;有利的环流和风场条件,加上稳定的大气层结,是烟霾维持和加强的重要条件;在未达到饱和情况下,适当增加湿度有利于霾的形成,且吸湿粒子吸湿凝结增大会使得能见度更加恶化,烟霾更加严重。在这次烟霾天气中,南京地区的污染物源头来自扬州、镇江、泰州一带,最严重时期的污染物主要来自泰州南部。 相似文献
11.
Characteristics of biomass burning aerosol and its impact on regional air quality in the summer of 2003 at Gwangju, Korea 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The main objective of this study is to investigate the chemical characteristics of biomass burning aerosol and its impact on regional air quality during an agricultural waste burning period in early summer in the rural areas of Korea. A 12-h integrated intensive sampling of biomass burning aerosol in the fine and coarse modes was conducted on 2–20 June 2003 in Gwangju, Korea. The collected samples were analyzed for concentrations of mass, ionic, elemental, and carbonaceous species. Average concentrations of fine and coarse mass were measured to be 67.9 and 18.7 μg m− 3 during the biomass burning period, 41.9 and 18.8 μg m− 3 during the haze period, and 35.6 and 13.3 μg m− 3 during the normal period, respectively. An exceptionally high PM2.5 concentration of 110.3 μg m− 3 with a PM2.5/PM10 ratio of 0.79 was observed on 6 June 2003 during the biomass burning period. The potassium ratio method was used to identify biomass burning samples. The average ratio of potassium in the fine mode to the coarse mode (FK/CK) was 23.8 during the biomass burning period, 6.0 during the haze period, and 4.7 during the normal period, respectively. A FK/CK ratio above 9.2 was considered a criterion for biomass burning event in this study. Particulate matter from the open field burning of agricultural waste has an adverse impact on visibility, human health, and regional air quality. 相似文献
12.
Charles A. Brock Lawrence F. Radke Jamie H. Lyons Peter V. Hobbs 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1989,9(1-3):129-148
Airborne observations during August 1985 over Greenland and the North American Arctic revealed that dense, discrete haze layers were common above 850 mb. No such hazes were found near the surface in areas remote from local sources of particles. The haze layers aloft were characterized by large light-scattering coefficients due to dry particles (maximum value 1.24 × 10–4m–1) and relatively high total particle concentrations (maximum value 3100 cm–3). Sulfate was the dominant ionic component of the aerosol (0.06 – 1.9 g m–3); carbon soot was also present. Evidence for relatively fresh aerosols, accompanied by NO2 and O3 depletion, was found near, but not within, the haze layers. The hazes probably derived from anthropogenic sources and/or biomass burning at midlatitudes.It is hypothesized that the scavenging of particles by stratus clouds plays an important role in reducing the frequency and intensity of hazes at the surface in the Arctic in summer. Since the detection of haze layers aloft through measurements of column-integrated parameters from the surface (e.g., by lidar) cannot be carried out reliably when clouds are present, such measurements have likely underestimated the occurrence of haze layers in the Arctic, particularly in summer. 相似文献
13.
Due to increased aerosol emissions and unfavorable weather conditions, severe haze events have occurred frequently in China in the last 10 years. In addition, the interaction between the boundary layer and the aerosol radiative effect may be another important factor in haze formation. To better understand the effect of this interaction, the aerosol radiative effect on a severe haze episode that took place in December 2013 was investigated by using two WRF-Chem model simulations with different aerosol configurations. The results showed that the maximal reduction of regional average surface shortwave radiation, latent heat, and sensible heat during this event were 88, 12, and 37 W m–2, respectively. The planetary boundary layer height, daytime temperature, and wind speed dropped by 276 m, 1°C, and 0.33 m s–1, respectively. The ventilation coefficient dropped by 8%–24% for in the central and northwestern Yangtze River Delta (YRD). The upper level of the atmosphere was warmed and the lower level was cooled, which stabilized the stratification. In a word, the dispersion ability of the atmosphere was weakened due to the aerosol radiative feedback. Additional results showed that the PM2.5 concentration in the central and northwestern YRD increased by 6–18 μg m–3, which is less than 15% of the average PM2.5 concentration during the severely polluted period in this area. The vertical profile showed that the PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations increased below 950 hPa, with a maximum increase of 7 and 8 μg m–3, respectively. Concentrations reduced between 950 and 800 hPa, however, with a maximum reduction of 3.5 and 4.5 μg m–3, respectively. Generally, the aerosol radiative effect aggravated the level of pollution, but the effect was limited, and this haze event was mainly caused by the stagnant meteorological conditions. The interaction between the boundary layer and the aerosol radiative effect may have been less important than the large-scale static weather conditions for the formation of this haze episode. 相似文献
14.
2013年12月1—10日宁波市出现历史罕见持续性重度污染事件。基于常规天气观测、浙江省自动气象站、宁波慈溪边界层风廓线雷达和凉帽山岛370 m高塔、宁波市和舟山市污染物监测等资料,应用美国NOAA HYSPLIT4模式进行粒子后向轨迹分析,并将CALMET诊断模式应用到WRF中尺度数值模式输出,对本次污染发展和消散过程宁波市3 km以下气象要素进行精细化诊断分析,计算通风系数。结果表明：（1）合适的环流背景是污染发展和持续的主要原因。气溶胶粒子浓度升高过程中有3次弱冷空气影响,主要表现在800 m以上层次,为粒子的输送提供了好的动力条件,却又不影响边界层风速和稳定性。弱冷空气间歇期风力弱,风向快速变化,利于粒子的循环滞留。（2）污染发展和持续阶段宁波市区3000 m以下持续弱下沉气流,夜间边界层高度低,200 m以下存在明显逆温层,导致气溶胶粒子在低层的堆积和能见度的降低。（3）污染发展和持续阶段夜间通风系数均小于1 m2/s,扩散条件很差,而污染消散阶段通风系数明显增大。没有外源性粒子输入时,通风系数与气溶胶粒子浓度成负相关。 相似文献
15.
本文利用气体组分及大气气溶胶在线监测系统(MARGA ADI 2080)观测武汉市2018年1月9—26日大气气溶胶中的8种水溶性离子(NH+4、NO-3、SO2-4、Cl-、K+、Ca2+、Na+和Mg2+),结合气象要素数据,使用主成分分析(PCA)、正定矩阵因子分析法(PMF)、HYSPLIT后向轨迹模式、潜在源区贡献(PSCF)和浓度权重轨迹(CWT),对霾污染过程中水溶性离子进行了全面的来源解析,探究了霾不同阶段下来源差异和空间分布特征。结果表明:(1)本次霾污染中的8种水溶性离子和4种污染气体,PCA解析出的源和占比分别为二次源和燃煤源的混合源(41.28%)、工业排放和土壤扬尘混合源(27.73%)和机动车排放源(9.63%),PMF解析出的源和占比分别为燃煤与土壤扬尘混合源(18.57%)、机动车排放源(20.74%)、二次源(18.30%)、光化学污染源(22.24%)和燃煤源(20.15%)。(2)霾在不同阶段下水溶性离子和4种污染气体的来源存在差异,在清洁天和霾消散阶段,光化学的贡献最高,占比分别为31.42%和36.07%;在霾发生阶段燃煤与土壤扬尘源的贡献最高,其贡献为40.94%;在霾发展阶段,最大的控制源为二次源,贡献占比为37.51%。(3)此次武汉市霾污染中PM2.5浓度和NH+4、NO-3和SO2-4的潜在源区为皖豫鄂三省和赣湘鄂三省交界处。霾污染中PM2.5的主要影响范围是武汉市南部和北部省份,NO-3、NH+4和SO2-4的主要影响区域为武汉市东北方向的城市、湖南省和江西省。 相似文献
16.
Characteristics of gaseous pollutants near a main traffic line in Beijing and its influencing factors 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Jianhua Chen Wei Wang Jianyu Zhang Hongjie Liu Lihong Ren Xiaoyu Liu Wenjie Zhang Xuan Wang 《Atmospheric Research》2009,94(3):470-480
Automobile exhaust emissions are becoming increasingly serious with the drastic increase of the number of vehicles in Beijing. In order to investigate the air pollution level and characteristics in the areas near the main traffic lines in Beijing and to identify the contributions from traffic and other sources, gaseous pollutants including NOx, CO, O3, SO2, and meteorological parameters have been monitored at a monitoring site and a contrasting site in winter and summer in 2006. The volumes of vehicles on Beiyuan Road were recorded. The average concentrations of NO, NO2, NOx, CO, O3, and SO2 at the monitoring site were 0.148 mg/m3, 0.107 mg/m3, 0.333 mg/m3, 5.110 mg/m3, 0.006 mg/m3, and 0.157 mg/m3, respectively during the sampling period in winter and 0.021 mg/m3, 0.068 mg/m3, 0.101 mg/m3, 4.170 mg/m3, 0.083 mg/m3, and 0.056 mg/m3, respectively in summer. The high concentrations of CO and O3 reflect the influence of vehicles emission near the traffic lines evidently. The higher concentrations of CO, NO and O3 in summer may indicate that the characteristics of traffic pollution were more pronounced in summer. Results of regression analysis showed that in winter the concentrations of SO2 and CO were significantly positively correlated with the emission of heating boilers at night and negatively correlated with wind speed in daytime. The concentrations of NO and NOx were negatively correlated with wind speed, positively correlated with emission of heating boilers in daytime and positively correlated with traffic density at nighttime. The concentrations of NO2 were positively correlated with the emission of heating boilers in daytime and traffic density at nighttime. In summer, the air quality at the monitoring site and the contrasting site was mainly influenced by the traffic emissions. 相似文献
17.
Leszek Kolendowicz Ewa Bednorz Barbara Walna Iwona Kurzyca 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2011,68(2):89-105
Synoptic conditions of extreme rainwater pollution episodes, evidenced by maximum values of parameters measured in the protected
area of Wielkopolski National Park (western-central Poland), were analysed in this study. Precipitation samples were tested
for the following parameters: pH, electrical conductivity and the concentration of the following elements: F-, Cl-, NO2-, NO3-, PO43-, SO42- and Na+, NH4+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+. It was assumed, that in winter, western advection of Atlantic air masses was the most frequent aerosol and pollution transport
scenario for the investigated area. In summer the most heavily pollution occur at the intensified meridional flow over the
central Europe, indicating advection of cooler air from northern Europe and the North Sea. In most of cases, the weather conditions
causing extreme concentration of examined pollutants, were determined by the movement of weather fronts over considerable
parts of Poland and by precipitation caused by those fronts. 相似文献
18.
Effect of urbanization on the urban meteorology and air pollution in Hangzhou 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1 
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下载免费PDF全文 Urbanization has a substantial effect on urban meteorology. It can alter the atmospheric diffusion capability in urban areas and therefore affect pollutant concentrations. To study the effects of Hangzhou’s urban development in most recent decade on its urban meteorological characteristics and pollutant diffusion, 90 weather cases were simulated, covering 9 weather types, with the Nanjing University City Air Quality Prediction System and high-resolution surface-type data and urban construction data for 2000 and 2010. The results show that the most recent decade of urban development in Hangzhou substantially affected its urban meteorology. Specifically, the average urban wind speed decreased by 1.1 m s ?1; the average intensity of the heat island increased by 0.5°C; and the average urban relative humidity decreased by 9.7%. Based on one case for each of the nine weather types, the impact of urbanization on air pollution diffusion was investigated, revealing that the changes in the meteorological environment decreased the urban atmosphere’s diffusion capability, and therefore increased urban pollutant concentrations. For instance, the urban nitrogen oxides concentration increased by 2.1 μg m ?3 on average; the fine particulate matter (diameter of 2.5 μm or less; PM2.5) pollution concentration increased by 2.3 μg m ?3 on average; in highly urbanized areas, the PM2.5 concentration increased by 30 μg m ?3 and average visibility decreased by 0.2 km, with a maximum decrease of 1 km; the average number of daily hours of haze increased by 0.46 h; and the haze height lifted by 100–300 m. The “self-cleaning time” of pollutants increased by an average of 1.5 h. 相似文献
19.
Xiaolan Li Yangfeng Wang Lidu Shen Hongsheng Zhang Hujia Zhao Yunhai Zhang Yanjun Ma 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2018,32(2):302-312
The characteristics of boundary layer structure during a persistent regional haze event over the central Liaoning city cluster of Northeast China from 16 to 21 December 2016 were investigated based on the measurements of particulate matter (PM) concentration and the meteorological data within the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). During the observational period, the maximum hourly mean PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations in Shenyang, Anshan, Fushun, and Benxi ranged from 276 to 355 μg m–3 and from 378 to 442 μg m–3, respectively, and the lowest hourly mean atmospheric visibility (VIS) in different cities ranged from 0.14 to 0.64 km. The central Liaoning city cluster was located in the front of a slowly moving high pressure and was mainly controlled by southerly winds. Wind speed (WS) within the ABL (< 2 km) decreased significantly and WS at 10-m height mostly remained below 2 m s–1 during the hazy episodes, which was favorable for the accumulation of air pollutants. A potential temperature inversion layer existed throughout the entire ABL during the earlier hazy episode [from 0500 Local Time (LT) 18 December to 1100 LT 19 December], and then a potential temperature inversion layer developed with the bottom gradually decreased from 900 m to 300 m. Such a stable atmospheric stratification further weakened pollutant dispersion. The atmospheric boundary layer height (ABLH) estimated based on potential temperature profiles was mostly lower than 400 m and varied oppositely with PM2.5 in Shenyang. In summary, weak winds due to calm synoptic conditions, strong thermal inversion layer, and shallow atmospheric boundary layer contributed to the formation and development of this haze event. The backward trajectory analysis revealed the sources of air masses and explained the different characteristics of the haze episodes in the four cities. 相似文献
20.
基于极端随机树方法的WRF-CMAQ-MOS模型研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
随着城市化、工业化的快速发展,空气污染已经成为了公众最关注的问题之一。为了提高空气质量预报的准确度,以多尺度空气质量模型（Community Multi-Scale Air Quality,CMAQ）为工具,结合中尺度WRF（Weather Research and Forecast Model）气象预报数据、气象观测数据、污染物浓度观测数据,基于极端随机树方法建立了WRF-CMAQ-MOS（Weather Research and Forecast Model-Community Multi-Scale Air Quality-Model Output Statistics）统计修正模型。结果表明,结合WRF气象预报的CMAQ-MOS方法明显修正了由于模型非客观性产生的模式预报偏差,提高了预报效果。使用线性回归方法不能获得较好的优化效果,选取极端随机树方法和梯度提升回归树方法对模型进行改进和比较,发现极端随机树方法对结合WRF气象要素的CMAQ-MOS模型有较大的提升。针对徐州地区空气质量预报,进一步使用基于极端随机树方法的WRF-CMAQ-MOS模型对2016年1、2、3月的空气质量指数（AQI）及PM2.5、PM10、NO2、SO2、O3、CO六种污染物优化试验进行验证,发现优化效果最为明显的两种污染物分别是NO2及O3,2016年1、2、3月整体相关系数NO2由0.35升至0.63,O3由0.39升至0.79,均方根误差NO2由0.0346减至0.0243 mg/m3,O3由0.0447减至0.0367 mg/m3。文中发展的WRF-CMAQ-MOS统计修正模型可以有效提升预报精度,在空气质量预报中具有很好的应用前景。 相似文献