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1.
Assessments of the impacts of climate change typically require information at scales of 10 km or less. Such a resolution in global climate simulations is unlikely for at least two decades. We have developed an alternative to explicit resolution that provides a framework for meeting the needs of climate change impact assessment much sooner. We have applied to a global climate model a physically based subgrid-scale treatment of the influence of orography on temperature, clouds, precipitation, and land surface hydrology. The treatment represents subgrid variations in surface elevation in terms of fractional area distributions of discrete elevation classes. For each class it calculates the height rise/descent of air parcels traveling through the grid cell, and applies the influence of the rise/descent to the temperature and humidity profiles of the elevation class. Cloud, radiative, and surface processes are calculated separately for each elevation class using the same physical parametrizations used by the model without the subgrid orography parametrization. The simulated climate fields for each elevation class can then be distributed in post-processing according to the spatial distribution of surface elevation within each grid cell. Parallel 10-year simulations with and without the subgrid treatment have been performed. The simulated temperature, precipitation and snow water are mapped to 2.5-minute (~5 km) resolution and compared with gridded analyses of station measurements. The simulation with the subgrid scheme produces a much more realistic distribution of snow water and significantly more realistic distributions of temperature and precipitation than the simulation without the subgrid scheme. Moreover, the 250-km grid cell means of most other fields are virtually unchanged by the subgrid scheme. This suggests that the tuning of the climate model without the subgrid scheme is also applicable to the model with the scheme.  相似文献   

2.
An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and field studies in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability. Paleoecological and contemporary ecological data in forest ecosystems provided model parameterization and validation at broad spatial and temporal scales for tree growth, tree regeneration and treeline movement. For subalpine tree species, winter precipitation has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations and west-side sites (which have more precipitation). Temperature affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Furthermore, variable but predictable climate-growth relationships across elevation gradients suggest that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations, making a uniform response of these species to future climatic change unlikely. Multi-decadal variability in climate also affects ecosystem processes. Mountain hemlock growth at high-elevation sites is negatively correlated with winter snow depth and positively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. At low elevations, the reverse is true. Glacier mass balance and fire severity are also linked to PDO. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many subalpine locations in the western U.S.A. and precipitation (snow depth) is a critical variable regulating conifer expansion. Lastly, modeling potential future ecosystem conditions suggests that increased climatic variability will result in increasing forest fire size and frequency, and reduced net primary productivity in drier, east-side forest ecosystems. As additional empirical data and modeling output become available, we will improve our ability to predict the effects of climatic change across a broad range of climates and mountain ecosystems in the northwestern U.S.A.  相似文献   

3.
Both observational and numerical studies demonstrate the sensitivity of the atmosphere to variations in the extent and mass of snow cover. There is therefore a need for simple but realistic snow parameterizations in forecast and climate models. A new snow hydrology scheme has recently been developed at Météo-France for use in the ARPEGE climate model and has been successfully tested against local field measurements in stand-alone experiments. This study describes the global validation of the parameterization in a 3-year integration for the present-day climate within the T42L30 version of ARPEGE. Results are compared with those from a control simulation and with available observed climatologies, in order to assess the impact of the new snow parameterization on the simulated surface climate. The seasonal cycle of the Northern Hemisphere snow cover is clearly improved when using the new scheme. The snow pack is still slightly overestimated in winter, but its poleward retreat is better reproduced during the melting season. As a consequence, the modified GCM performs well in simulating the springtime continental heating, which may play a strong role in the simulation of the Asian summer monsoon.  相似文献   

4.
Summary A parameterization scheme for the thermal effects of subgrid scale orography is incorporated into a regional climate model (developed at Nanjing University) and its impact on modeling of the surface energy budget over East Asia is evaluated. This scheme includes the effect of terrain slope and orientation on the computation of solar and infrared radiation fluxes at the surface, as well as the surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. Calculations show that subgrid terrain parameters alter the diurnal cycle and horizontal distributions of surface energy budget components. This effect becomes more significant with increased terrain slope, especially in winter. Due to the inclusion of the subgrid topography, the surface area of a model grid box changes over complex terrain areas. Numerical experiments, with and without the subgrid scale topography scheme, show that the parameterization scheme of subgrid scale topography modifies the distribution of the surface energy budget and surface temperature around the Tibetan Plateau. Comparisons with observations indicate that the subgrid topography scheme, implemented in the climate model, reproduces the observed detailed spatial temperature structures at the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau and reduces the tendency to overestimate precipitation along the southern coastal areas of China in summer.  相似文献   

5.
孙岚  吴国雄  孙菽芬 《气象学报》2000,58(2):179-193
利用陆面过程模式 SSi B与 IAP/LASG发展的 L9R1 5AGCM的耦合 1 0 a积分试验 ,研究了全球尺度大气与地表的水分和能量交换以及陆地与大气环流和气候的相互作用。模拟表明 :SSi B模式可模拟出陆地上较为真实的表面通量及其日变化 ,较好地定量描述土壤 -植被 -大气连续体系 ( SPAC)中能量和水分的传输过程。因此 ,将其引入气候模式中能够模拟出比 CTL- AGCM更合理的气候平均状态、水汽分布以及水汽输送的气候特征 ,特别是亚洲夏季风水汽输送独特的地域性 ,再现了大气环流 ,尤其是陆面气候的基本特征。并指出 ,陆面过程参数化的引进及其陆面状况的变化显著地改善了全球陆地上的水分平衡状况。利用改进的再循环降水模式 ,进一步研究了陆面过程参数化明显改进降水模拟的物理机制。指出全球陆地 ,特别是盛夏北半球干旱、半干旱地区的再循环降水率明显减小 ,与陆面上表面潜热通量的显著减小区一致 ,从而克服了许多未耦合陆面过程的 AGCMs因对地表水过程非常简单地参数化导致的普遍存在着整个陆地降水偏高 ,改善了全球陆地上的水分平衡状况。因此 ,在充分耦合的陆气环流模式中模拟的降水分布与实况接近。  相似文献   

6.
7.
从陆面水文过程的物理机制出发,引进概率统计分布理论,推导出一种由非均匀土壤含水量及降水气候强迫所形成的次网格尺度非均匀径流率的解析表达式,从而将通常的次网格尺度地表径流的参数化方案(mosaic方法)改进为考虑网格区整体非均匀性的统计-动力参数化方案。文中用仿真模拟资料验证了该方案的可靠性与可行性,并作数值试验。结果表明,该方案切实可行。  相似文献   

8.
Simulated variability and trends in Northern Hemisphere seasonal snow cover are analyzed in large ensembles of climate integrations of the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Earth System Model. Two 40-member ensembles driven by historical radiative forcings are generated, one coupled to a dynamical ocean and the other driven by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the period 1981–2010. The simulations reproduce many aspects of the observed climatology and variability of snow cover extent as characterized by the NOAA snow chart climate data record. Major features of the simulated snow water equivalent (SWE) also agree with observations (GlobSnow Northern Hemisphere SWE data record), although with a lesser degree of fidelity. Ensemble spread in the climate response quantifies the impact of natural climate variability in the presence and absence of coupling to the ocean. Both coupled and uncoupled ensembles indicate an overall decrease in springtime snow cover that is consistent with observations, although springtime trends in most climate realizations are weaker than observed. In the coupled ensemble, a tendency towards excessive warming in wintertime leads to a strong wintertime snow cover loss that is not found in observations. The wintertime warming bias and snow cover reduction trends are reduced in the uncoupled ensemble with observed SSTs. Natural climate variability generates widely different regional patterns of snow trends across realizations; these patterns are related in an intuitive way to temperature, precipitation and circulation trends in individual realizations. In particular, regional snow loss over North America in individual realizations is strongly influenced by North Pacific SST trends (manifested as Pacific Decadal Oscillation variability) and by sea level pressure trends in the North Pacific/North Atlantic sectors.  相似文献   

9.
The ability of the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) to reproduce the mean and variability of hydrologically relevant climate variables was evaluated by comparing PCM historical climate runs with observations over temporal scales from sub-daily to annual. The domain was the continental U.S, and the model spatial resolution was T42 (about 2.8 degrees latitude by longitude). The climate variables evaluated include precipitation, surface air temperature, net surface solar radiation, soil moisture, and snow water equivalent. The results show that PCM has a winter dry bias in the Pacific Northwest and a summer wet bias in the central plains. The diurnal precipitation variation in summer is much stronger than observed, with an afternoon maximum in summer precipitation over much of the U.S. interior, in contrast with an observed nocturnal maximum in parts of the interior. PCM has a cold bias in annual mean temperature over most of the U.S., with deviations as large as ?8 K. The PCM daily temperature range is lower than observed, especiallyin the central U.S. PCM generally overestimates the net solar radiation over most of the U.S, although the diurnal cycle is simulated well in spring, summer and winter. In autumn PCM has a pronounced noontime peak in solar radiation that differs by 5–10% from observations. PCM'ssimulated soil moisture is less variable than that of a sophisticated land-surface hydrology model, especially in the interior of the country. PCM simulates the wetter conditions over the southeastern U.S. and California during warm (El Niño) events, but shifts the drier conditions in the PacificNorthwest northward and underestimates their magnitude. The temperature response to the North Pacific Oscillation is generally captured by PCM, but the amplitude of this response is overestimated by a factor of about two.  相似文献   

10.
In this study it is shown that the availability of a very high resolution dataset of land surface characteristics leads to the improvement of a surface runoff parameterization scheme. The improved parameterization scheme was developed for application in global and regional climate models and is a further development of the Arno scheme that is widely used in climate models. Here, surface runoff is computed as infiltration excess from a "bucket" type reservoir which takes the subgrid variability of soil saturation within a model gridbox into account. Instead of prescribing a distribution of subgrid scale soil water capacities as in the original Arno scheme, the array of high resolution soil water capacities taken from a global 1 km dataset of land surface parameters is used to obtain individual fractional saturation curves for each model gridbox. From each saturation curve, the three parameters (a shape parameter describing the shape of the subgrid distribution of soil water capacities, subgrid minimum and maximum soil water capacity) required in the modified formulation of the scheme are derived via optimization. As in the original Arno scheme applied in the ECHAM general circulation model and the REMO regional climate model, topography variations will influence the distribution of saturated subgrid areas within a model gridbox. At most gridboxes the net effect of these changes is such that more runoff is produced for high soil water contents and less runoff for low soil water contents. A validation of simulated discharge computed with a simplified land surface scheme applied to reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and a hydrological discharge model has shown that these changes lead to a more realistic simulation of the annual cycle of discharge for several catchments. In particular this could be shown for the Yangtze Kiang and Amur catchments where adequate input data are available.  相似文献   

11.
This ten-year general circulation model experiment compared a simulation where land surface boundary conditions were represented by observed, present day land cover to a simulation where the surface was represented by natural, potential land cover conditions. As a result of these estimated changes in historical land cover, significant temperature and hydrology changes affected tropical land surfaces, where some of the largest historical disruptions in total vegetation biomass have occurred. Also of considerable interest because of their broad scope and magnitude were changes in high-latitude Northern Hemisphere winter climate which resulted from changes in tropical convection, upper-level tropical outflow, and the generation of low-frequency tropical waves which propagated to the extratropics. These effects combined to move the Northern Hemisphere zonally averaged westerly jet to higher latitudes, broaden it, and reduce its maximum intensity. Low-level easterlies were also reduced over much of the tropical Pacific basin while positive anomalies in convective precipitation occurred in the central Pacific. Globally averaged changes were small. Comparisons of recent, observed trends in tropical and Northern Hemisphere, mid-latitude climate with these simulations suggests an interaction between the climatic effects of historical land cover changes and other modes of climate variability. Received: 8 September 1998 / Accepted: 31 July 1999  相似文献   

12.
Pacific Northwest (PNW) hydrology is particularly sensitive to changes in climate because snowmelt dominates seasonal runoff, and temperature changes impact the rain/snow balance. Based on results from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), we updated previous studies of implications of climate change on PNW hydrology. PNW 21st century hydrology was simulated using 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and 2 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios over Washington and the greater Columbia River watershed, with additional focus on the Yakima River watershed and the Puget Sound which are particularly sensitive to climate change. We evaluated projected changes in snow water equivalent (SWE), soil moisture, runoff, and streamflow for A1B and B1 emissions scenarios for the 2020s, 2040s, and 2080s. April 1 SWE is projected to decrease by approximately 38–46% by the 2040s (compared with the mean over water years 1917–2006), based on composite scenarios of B1 and A1B, respectively, which represent average effects of all climate models. In three relatively warm transient watersheds west of the Cascade crest, April 1 SWE is projected to almost completely disappear by the 2080s. By the 2080s, seasonal streamflow timing will shift significantly in both snowmelt dominant and rain–snow mixed watersheds. Annual runoff across the State is projected to increase by 2–3% by the 2040s; these changes are mainly driven by projected increases in winter precipitation.  相似文献   

13.
This study presents an evaluation of a new biosphere-atmosphere Regional Climate Model. COSMO-CLM2 results from the coupling between the non-hydrostatic atmospheric model COSMO-CLM version 4.0 and the Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5). In this coupling, CLM3.5 replaces a simpler land surface parameterization (TERRA_ML) used in the standard COSMO-CLM. Compared to TERRA_ML, CLM3.5 comprises a more complete representation of land surface processes including hydrology, biogeophysics, biogeochemistry and vegetation dynamics. Historical climate simulations over Europe with COSMO-CLM and with the new COSMO-CLM2 are evaluated against various data products. The simulated climate is found to be substantially affected by the coupling with CLM3.5, particularly in summer. Radiation fluxes as well as turbulent fluxes at the surface are found to be more realistically represented in COSMO-CLM2. This subsequently leads to improvements of several aspects of the simulated climate (cloud cover, surface temperature and precipitation). We show that a better partitioning of turbulent fluxes is the central factor allowing for the better performances of COSMO-CLM2 over COSMO-CLM. Despite these improvements, some model deficiencies still remain, most notably a substantial underestimation of surface net shortwave radiation. Overall, these results highlight the importance of land surface processes in shaping the European climate and the benefit of using an advanced land surface model for regional climate simulations.  相似文献   

14.
In atmospheric models, the partitioning of precipitation between infiltration and runoff has a major influence on the terrestrial water budget, and thereby on the simulated weather or climate. River routing models are now available to convert the simulated runoff into river discharge, offering a good opportunity to validate land surface models at the regional scale. However, given the low resolution of global atmospheric models, the quality of the hydrological simulations is much dependent on various processes occurring on unresolved spatial scales. This paper focuses on the parameterization of sub-grid hydrological processes within the ISBA land surface model. Five off-line simulations are performed over the French Rhône river basin, including various sets of parameterizations related to the sub-grid variability of topography, precipitation, maximum infiltration capacity and land surface properties. Parallel experiments are conducted at a high (8 km by 8 km) and low (1° by 1°) resolution, in order to test the robustness of the simulated water budget. Additional simulations are performed using the whole package of sub-grid parameterizations plus an exponential profile with depth of saturated hydraulic conductivity, in order to investigate the interaction between the vertical soil physics and the horizontal heterogeneities. All simulations are validated against a dense network of gauging measurements, after the simulated runoff is converted into discharge using the MODCOU river routing model. Generally speaking, the new version of ISBA, with both the sub-grid hydrology and the modified hydraulic conductivity, shows a better simulation of river discharge, as well as a weaker sensitivity to model resolution. The positive impact of each individual sub-grid parameterization on the simulated discharges is more obvious at the low resolution, whereas the high-resolution simulations are more sensitive to the exponential profile with depth of saturated hydraulic conductivity.  相似文献   

15.
Uncertainties in the climate response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations are quantified in a perturbed land surface parameter experiment. The ensemble of 108 members is constructed by systematically perturbing five poorly constrained land surface parameters of global climate model individually and in all possible combinations. The land surface parameters induce small uncertainties at global scale, substantial uncertainties at regional and seasonal scale and very large uncertainties in the tails of the distribution, the climate extremes. Climate sensitivity varies across the ensemble mainly due to the perturbation of the snow albedo parameterization, which controls the snow albedo feedback strength. The uncertainty range in the global response is small relative to perturbed physics experiments focusing on atmospheric parameters. However, land surface parameters are revealed to control the response not only of the mean but also of the variability of temperature. Major uncertainties are identified in the response of climate extremes to a doubling of CO2. During winter the response both of temperature mean and daily variability relates to fractional snow cover. Cold extremes over high latitudes warm disproportionately in ensemble members with strong snow albedo feedback and large snow cover reduction. Reduced snow cover leads to more winter warming and stronger variability decrease. As a result uncertainties in mean and variability response line up, with some members showing weak and others very strong warming of the cold tail of the distribution, depending on the snow albedo parametrization. The uncertainty across the ensemble regionally exceeds the CMIP3 multi-model range. Regarding summer hot extremes, the uncertainties are larger than for mean summer warming but smaller than in multi-model experiments. The summer precipitation response to a doubling of CO2 is not robust over many regions. Land surface parameter perturbations and natural variability alter the sign of the response even over subtropical regions.  相似文献   

16.
An attempt is made to integrate subgrid scale scheme on the work of Dimri and Ganju (Pure Appl Geophys 167:1–24, 2007) to understand the overall nature of surface heterogeneity and landuse variability along with resolvable finescale micro/meso scale circulation over the Himalayan region, which is having different altitudes and orientations causing prevailing weather conditions to be complex. This region receives large amount of precipitation due to eastward moving low-pressure synoptic weather systems, called western disturbances, during winter season (December, January, February—DJF). Surface heterogeneity and landuse variability of the Himalayan region gives rise to numerous micro/meso scale circulation along with prevailing weather. Therefore, in the present work, a mosaic type parameterization of subgrid scale topography and landuse within a framework of a regional climate model (RegCM3) is extended to study interseasonal variability of surface climate during a winter season (October 1999–March 2000) of the work of Dimri and Ganju (Pure Appl Geophys 167:1–24, 2007). In this scheme, meteorological variables are disaggregated from the coarse grid to the fine grid, land surface calculations are then performed separately for each subgrid cell, and surface fluxes are calculated and reaggregated onto the coarse grid cell for input to the atmospheric model. By doing so, resolvable finescale structures due to surface heterogeneity and landuse variability at coarse grid are subjected to parameterize at regular finescale surface subgrid. Model simulations show that implementation of subgrid scheme presents more realistic simulation of precipitation and surface air temperature. Influence of topographic elevation and valleys is better represented in the scheme. Overall, RegCM3 with subgrid scheme provides more accurate representation of resolvable finescale atmospheric/surface circulations that results in explaining mean variability in a better way.  相似文献   

17.
指出了中国东部夏季气候在20世纪80年代末出现了一次明显的年代际气候转型.伴随着这次年代际转型,80年代末以后中国东部南方地区降水明显增多,500 hPa西太平洋副热带高压西伸且南北范围变大,西北太平洋上空850 hPa反气旋增强.中国东部夏季80年代后期出现南方多雨的年代际转型与欧亚大陆春季积雪、西北太平洋夏季海面温度的年代际变化存在密切联系,它们也都在80年代末出现年代际转型.从80年代末以后,伴随着欧亚大陆春季积雪明显减少和西北太平洋夏季海面温度明显增高,中国夏季南方降水明显增加.文中分析了欧亚大陆春季积雪和西北太平洋夏季海面温度影响中国降水的物理过程,指出欧亚大陆春季积雪能够在500 hPa激发出大气中的遥相关波列,所激发出的波列可以从春季一直持续到夏季,造成中国北方为高压控制,南方为微弱低压控制,使得降水出现在中国南方.西北太平洋夏季海面温度的升高能够减小海陆热力差异,使得夏季风减弱,导致中国南方地区降水增多.  相似文献   

18.
Over recent years, many numerical studies have suggested that the land surface hydrology contributes to atmospheric variability and predictability on a wide range of scales. Conversely, land surface models (LSMs) have been also used to study the hydrological impacts of seasonal climate anomalies and of global warming. Validating these models at the global scale is therefore a crucial task, which requires off-line simulations driven by realistic atmospheric fluxes to avoid the systematic biases commonly found in the atmospheric models. The present study is aimed at validating a new land surface hydrology within the ISBA LSM. Global simulations are conducted at a 1° by 1° horizontal resolution using 3-hourly atmospheric forcings provided by the Global Soil Wetness Project. Compared to the original scheme, the new hydrology includes a comprehensive and consistent set of sub-grid parametrizations in order to account for spatial heterogeneities of topography, vegetation, and precipitation within each grid cell. The simulated runoff is converted into river discharge using the total runoff integrating pathways (TRIP) river routing model (RRM), and compared with available monthly observations at 80 gauging stations distributed over the world’s largest river basins. The simulated discharges are also compared with parallel global simulations from five alternative LSMs. Globally, the new sub-grid hydrology performs better than the original ISBA scheme. Nevertheless, the improvement is not so clear in the high-latitude river basins (i.e. Ob, MacKenzie), which can be explained by a too late snow melt in the ISBA model. Over specific basins (i.e. Parana, Niger), the quality of the simulated discharge is also limited by the TRIP RRM, which does not account for the occurrence of seasonal floodplains and for their significant impact on the basin-scale water budget.  相似文献   

19.
By using Comprehensive Land Surface Model (CLSM), three snow cases, i.e., France Col de Porte 1993/1994, 1994/1995 and BOREAS SSA-OJP 1994/1995, were simulated. The simulated results were compared with the observations to examine the capability of the model to describe the evolutions of snow cover under two different land cover conditions. Several sensitivity experiments were performed to investigate the effects of the parameterization schemes of some snow cover internal processes and vegetation on the model results. Results suggest that the CLSM simulates the basic processes of snow cover accurately and describes the features of snow cover evolutions reasonably, indicating that the model has the potential to model the processes related to the snow cover evolution. It is also found that the different parameterization schemes of the snowfall density and snow water holding capacity have significant effects on the simulation of snow cover. The estimation of snowfall density mainly impacts the simulated snow depth, and the underestimation (overestimation) of the snowfall density increases (decreases) the snow depth simulated significantly but with little effect on the simulated snow water equivalent (SWE). The parameterization of the snow water holding capacity plays a crucial role in the evolution of snow cover, especially in the ablation of snow cover. Larger snow water holding capacity usually leads to larger snow density and heat capacity by storing more liquid water in the snow layer, and makes the temperature of snow cover and the snow ablation vary more slowly. To a smaller snow water holding capacity, contrary is the case. The results also show that the physical processes related to the snow cover variation are different, which are dependent on the vegetation existed. Vegetation plays an important role in the evolution of soil-snow system by changing the energy balance at the snow-soil surface. The existence of vegetation is favorable to the maintenance of snow cover and delays the increase of underlying soil temperature.  相似文献   

20.
土地利用变化对我国区域气候影响的数值试验   总被引:29,自引:0,他引:29  
使用RegCM2区域气候模式单向嵌套澳大利亚CSIRO R21L9全球海-气耦合模式,通过将中国区域植被覆盖由理想状况改变为实际状况的数值试验对比分析,探讨了当代中国土地利用变化对中国区域气候的影响,并对结果进行了统计显著性检验。研究表明,土地利用的变化,会导致我国西北等地区年平均降水减少,导致年平均气温在内陆部分地区升高和在沿海个别地区降低,引起许多地方夏季日平均最高气温升高,而冬季日平均最低气温则在我国东部部分地区降低的同时在西北地区升高,土壤湿度的变化表现为大范围的降低。研究同时表明,相同的土地变化在不同的地理环境下引起的气候要素变化有一定的不一致性。  相似文献   

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