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1.
Attempts to quantify the numbers of migrants generated by changes in climate have commonly been calculated by projecting physical climate changes on an exposed population. These studies generally make simplistic assumptions about the response of an individual to variations in climate. However, empirical evidence of environmentally induced migration does not support such a structural approach and recognises that migration decisions are usually both multi-causal and shaped through individual agency. As such, agent-based modelling offers a robust method to simulate the autonomous decision making process relating to environmental migration. The Theory of Planned Behaviour provides a basis that can be used to effectively break down the reasoning process relating to the development of a behavioural intention. By developing an agent-based model of environmental migration for Burkina Faso from the basis of a combination of such theoretical developments and data analysis we further investigate the role of the environment in the decision to migrate using scenarios of future demographic, economic, social, political, and climate change in a dryland context. We find that in terms of climate change, it can be seen that that change to a drier environment produces the largest total and international migration fluxes when combined with changes to inclusive and connected social and political governance. While the lowest international migration flows are produced under a wetter climate with exclusive and diverse governance scenarios. In summary this paper illustrates how agent-based models incorporating the Theory of Planned Behaviour can be used to project evidence based future changes in migration in response to future demographic, economic social and climate change. 相似文献
2.
This study explores possible futures of Mediterranean migration based on an evaluation of past, current and future drivers of migration in the region. Since 1950, structural shifts in the political economy of the region have fundamentally changed the Mediterranean migration map. Particularly the rise of Gulf economies and south European growth and EU expansion has transformed the northern Mediterranean and the Gulf into new immigration poles. The main drivers of these changes are economic and political. Contrary to conventional beliefs, the role of environmental and also demographic factors seems comparatively limited, probabilistic and indirect. Future climate change and environmental stress may affect internal movement but are unlikely to result in massive international migration. Under most scenarios, Turkey and other North African countries may well evolve into immigration countries coinciding with increasing immigration from sub-Saharan Africa to the entire Mediterranean. 相似文献
3.
This article discusses how conflict patterns affect the volume, direction and types of migration within the developing world. Conflict impact and poverty are the two primary drivers directly shaping migrations within poor and high-risk environments. Indirect drivers of migration include livelihood fragility, ecological and political instabilities. Conflicts overwhelmingly occur in states where much of the population is dependent upon the environment/natural resources for their livelihoods. There is little reliable evidence to suggest a link between civil conflict and climate change, however, the environmental changes occurring across developing states shape the ways in which civilians can respond to political and economic threats. The crucial point is that the communities who are subject to increasing environmental variation and disruption, through either external or internal processes, are likely to become poorer as a consequence. This poverty lessens their ability to respond to the myriad of threats in their environs, including conflict, ecological disasters, disease, or economic hardship. Hence, there is an endogeneity to conflict, precipitating factors and possible outcomes: the persistence of violence plays a determining role in the sustainability of livelihoods, poverty levels and the propensity of migration within chronically conflicted areas. Those most vulnerable to forced migration live in ‘chronically vulnerable areas’, which are characterized by the deterioration, loss or destruction of primary livelihood systems and productive assets, environmental degradation and deterioration of natural resources, increasing impoverishment of communities and households, geographical isolation and a dependence on relief. 相似文献
4.
Environmental migration is a topic which has given rise to widespread debate and gloomy predictions about the state of the world in 2050, but where rigorous research and empirical evidence are unfortunately in short supply. In this paper, we review the existing research on and empirical evidence of how climate change and climate variability in Less Developed Countries (LDCs) affects two main drivers of migration identified by migration models in the economic literature, namely income level differentials between origin and destination areas and income variability in origin areas, and how they in turn affect migration. We find that there are serious gaps in both the economic and the environmental literature that render it impossible to make sound and robust predictions of how climate change and increased climate variability will affect the economic migration drivers, and of how these in turn may change existing migration patterns. There are some empirical indications that income differentials may increase due to lower income levels in the origin areas of LDCs, but virtually no evidence exists of the effects of climate change or increased climate variability on income variability. Furthermore, although a negative relationship between migration and rainfall has been established by many researchers, there is only very limited evidence as to what drives it. A clearer picture of the driving force behind the link between rainfall and migration would greatly benefit policymaking in this area. 相似文献
5.
We present how uncertainty and learning are classically studied in economic models. Specifically, we study a standard expected utility model with two sequential decisions, and consider two particular cases of this model to illustrate how uncertainty and learning may affect climate policy. While uncertainty has generally a negative effect on welfare, learning has always a positive, and thus opposite, effect. The effects of both uncertainty and learning on decisions are less clear. Neither uncertainty nor learning can be used as a general argument to increase or reduce emissions today without studying the specific intertemporal costs and benefits. Considering limits in applying the expected utility framework to climate change problems, we then consider a more recent framework with ambiguity-aversion which accounts for situations of imprecise or multiple probability distributions. We discuss both the impact of ambiguity-aversion on decisions and difficulties in applying such a non-expected utility framework to a dynamic context. 相似文献
6.
In recent years, the empirical literature linking environmental factors and human migration has grown rapidly and gained increasing visibility among scholars and the policy community. Still, this body of research uses a wide range of methodological approaches for assessing environment–migration relationships. Without comparable data and measures across a range of contexts, it is impossible to make generalizations that would facilitate the development of future migration scenarios. Demographic researchers have a large methodological toolkit for measuring migration as well as modeling its drivers. This toolkit includes population censuses, household surveys, survival analysis and multi-level modeling. This paper's purpose is to introduce climate change researchers to demographic data and methods and to review exemplary studies of the environmental dimensions of human migration. Our intention is to foster interdisciplinary understanding and scholarship, and to promote high quality research on environment and migration that will lead toward broader knowledge of this association. 相似文献
7.
Myron P. Gutmann 《Climatic change》2000,44(3):377-391
This paper is about the scales at which demographic data are available, and demographic research is conducted, and their implications for understanding the relationship between population and environment. It describes a multi-disciplinary project designed to study the long-term relationship between population, land use, and environment in the U.S. Great Plains. The paper begins with a discussion of the scales at which data are readily available for demographic, agricultural land use, and environmental data for the United States. Some of these data can be obtained at relatively high resolutions, but the lowest common denominator for many of the long term data is the county, a fairly large unit. I then discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the different scales available. The third section of the paper uses county net migration as an example of research that can be done, and the scale at which it is effective. The example shows that the county is an effective unit for the study of migration, and that the research results are significant. The conclusion suggests that the study of population processes in an environmental and economic context is appropriate at the county level for some questions, but that scaling the results to larger units may be difficult because of the need to be certain about the contexts in which those processes take place. We probably should not study net migration at the national or continental scale, but aggregating county-level or regional studies to a larger scale may be successful. 相似文献
8.
This article explores the possibilities of using social protection to manage and reduce the risks of forced displacement resulting from climate change. It reviews the relevant literature on migration, disasters and climate change, and constructs a model through which international policies may be used to encourage resettlement options that support the capabilities and entitlements of poor and vulnerable populations. By distinguishing between rapid-onset disasters and long-term environmental change, it explores the ways in which cash transfers, asset transfers and conditional cash transfers may be used to break the cycle of vulnerability, destitution and distress migration that can occur during times of severe environmental stress. An important distinction is made between “economic migration,” which implies that households have at their disposal an opportunity to engage in forward-looking analysis about the ways in which they will invest household resources and “distress migration,” which implies that household decisions about investment and migration are largely ad hoc responses to external environmental processes and events. The article reviews recent discussions about the prospects of revising the international refugee regime, and identifies the opportunities and challenges of using social protection to support household decisions that can facilitate economic migration over the long-term. 相似文献
9.
This paper examines global demographic change as a driver of migration within the context of anticipated climate change. It begins by briefly considering some theoretical formulations which relate demographic change and migration. It then considers evolving global demographic trends and discusses some of their potential impacts upon migration. It is shown that there is a close spatial coincidence between demographic and climate change “hotspots” that will influence migration in complex ways. It then turns to the complex interaction between demographic change, environmental change and migration, both in the past and potential developments in the future. It concludes with a discussion of the potential impacts of future trends and their policy implications. 相似文献
10.
Individual mobility – moving between and within different geographic regions – represents an adaptation strategy of natural resource users worldwide to cope with sudden and gradual changes in resource abundances. This work traces the recent history of Peruvian small-scale fishers’ migration, and particularly analyses the spatial mobility patterns of resource users along the Peruvian coastline in the aftermath of the coastal El Niño 2017. In February-March 2017, this event caused extraordinary heavy rains and a rise in water temperatures along the coast of northern Peru, inducing negative consequences for the small-scale fisheries and scallop (Argopecten purpuratus) aquaculture sectors, both representing important socio-economic activities in the region. Responses of local resource users to these changes were highly diverse, with a great number of people leaving the region in search for work in fishing and non-fishing activities. With a particular emphasis on the province of Sechura, this work attempts to shed light on how and why migration flows differ for fishers and scallop farmers and to explore future pathways in the context of post-disturbance recovery. About one year after the disturbance event, the small-scale fishery operated almost on a regular scale, while the aquaculture sector still struggled towards pre-El Niño conditions, reflected, for example, in a higher percentage of persons engaging in other economic activities within and outside the region. The results of this study demonstrate the importance of human movement and translocal social networks emerging in moments of crisis and should be considered for future development of long-term management strategies incorporating increasing interconnectedness of places on different scales in the face of future disturbance events. Understanding adaptation strategies of resource users in this particular social-ecological setting will further serve to inform other coastal systems prone to (re-occurring) environmental change by highlighting the diversity of socio-economic and natural drivers that can stipulate mobility and affect adaptive capacity of resource users. 相似文献
11.
Urban community gardens are vital green spaces threatened by global social and environmental change factors. Population growth has reduced the amount of space available in cities, and climate change challenges plant growth thresholds. Urban community gardens provide dynamic socio-ecological systems to study how such social and environmental change factors affect the management and delivery of ecosystem services. They provide spaces where urban citizens purposefully interact with nature and receive multiple benefits. In this paper, we synthesize the results of three years of research in a case study of urban community gardens across the Central Coast of California and present a framework showing how both social and environmental change factors at the regional scale affect the ecological make-up of urban community gardens, which in turn affect the ecosystem services coming from such systems. Our study reveals that global environmental change felt at the regional level (e.g., increased built environment, climate change) interact with social change and policy (e.g., population growth, urbanization, water use policy), thus affecting regulations over garden resources (e.g., water availability) and management decisions by gardeners (e.g., soil management, crop planting decisions). These management decisions at the plot-scale, determine the ecological complexity and quality of the gardens and affect the resulting ecosystem services that come from these systems, such as food provision for both humans and urban animals. A greater understanding of how environmental and social change factors drive the management processes of urban community gardens is necessary to design policy support systems that encourage the continued use and benefits arising from such green spaces. Policies that can support urban community gardens to maintain ecological complexity and increase biodiversity through active management of soil quality and plant diversity have the potential to increase social and environmental outcomes that feedback to the larger environmental and social system. 相似文献
12.
Rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
Alex de Sherbinin Leah K. VanWey Kendra McSweeney Rimjhim Aggarwal Alisson Barbieri Sabine Henry Lori M. Hunter Wayne Twine Robert Walker 《Global Environmental Change》2008,18(1):38-53
This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of microlevel studies have been conducted in either marginal (mountainous or arid) or frontier environments, especially Amazonia. Though the linkages are mediated by many complex and often context-specific factors, there is strong evidence that dependence on natural resources intensifies when households lose human and social capital through adult morbidity and mortality, and qualified evidence for the influence of environmental factors on household decision-making regarding fertility and migration. Two decades of research on lifecycles and land cover change at the farm level have yielded a number of insights about how households make use of different land-use and natural resource management strategies at different stages. A thread running throughout the review is the importance of managing risk through livelihood diversification, ensuring future income security, and culture-specific norms regarding appropriate and desirable activities and demographic responses. Recommendations for future research are provided. 相似文献
13.
14.
Recent works on organizational adaptation to climate change have repeatedly stressed that – despite concerns about large-scale impacts of climate change on supply chain networks – studies on climate change adaptation in manufacturing industries are still surprisingly scarce. The following study develops a systemic analytical framework based on which climate risks for manufacturing industries are reviewed and drivers (defined as supportive factors) of entrepreneurial robustness are examined. The analysis builds upon a case study in the alpine Austrian state of Tyrol where an intense regional rise of average temperatures occurs, going along with increased risks of natural mountain hazards and exposed settlement structures. In this climate-sensitive setting the authors conducted a survey on risk perceptions among 102 managers from manufacturing firms. Based on a comparison of the sectors metal and engineering, timber products, and construction, the authors argue that drivers of entrepreneurial robustness can be subsumed under five major strategic principles: (a) the deployment of slack resources, (b) vertical supply chain integration, (c) manufacturing flexibility, (d) material efficiency, and (e) technological risk prevention. Departing from the empirical results, the authors argue that across these principles the development of drivers depends on an interplay of structural prerequisites and human decisions on the levels of the focal firm, the supply chain network, and the political, economic, and geographic environment. In this sense, the authors conceptualize different forms of contingencies – thus effects influencing the development of drivers – within an ontology which may support further system-oriented analysis of climate change adaptation in industry. 相似文献
15.
Climate change presents clear risks to natural resources, which carry potential economic costs. The limited nature of physical, financial, human and natural resources means that governments, as managers of natural resources, must make careful decisions regarding trade-offs and the potential future value of investments in climate change adaptation. This paper presents cost-benefit analysis of scenarios to characterise economic benefits of adaptation from the perspective of a public institution (the provincial government) and private agents (forest licensees). The example provided is the context of assisted migration strategies for regenerating forests that are currently being implemented in British Columbia to reduce future impacts of climate change on forests. The analysis revealed positive net present value of public investment in assisted migration across all scenarios under a range of conditions; however, private sector agents face disincentives to adopt these strategies. Uncertainty about how the costs, benefits and risks associated with climate change impacts will be distributed among public institutions and private actors influences incentives to adapt to climate change (the “principal-agent problem”) and further complicates adaptation. Absent development of risk-sharing mechanisms or re-alignment of incentives, uptake of assisted migration strategies by private agents is likely to be limited, creating longer-term risks for public institutions. Analyzing incentives and disincentives facing principals and agents using a well-known tool (cost-benefit analysis) can help decision-makers to identify and address underlying barriers to climate change adaptation in the context of public lands management. 相似文献
16.
James William Morrissey 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1501-1510
Empirical work on the relationship between environmental stress and human migration has blossomed over the last 10 years. While such work has provided important insights into this relationship, there has been, to date, limited effort expended on generating a generalisable framework for apprehending such interactions. This paper seeks to address this deficit. Based on semi-structured interviews in two sending and four receiving areas in northern Ethiopia, it explores dominant mobility narratives among populations whose livelihoods are exposed to a range of environmental stresses. Analysis of these narratives corroborates findings from other empirical studies on the subject, highlighting how the impact of environmental stress on human mobility can only be understood within the context in which it occurs. To this end the paper attempts to generate a typology of interactions between environmental and non-environmental factors shaping mobility. The typology is based on four effects: additive, enabling, vulnerability and barrier effects. It is thought to provide a generalisable conceptual language which is capable of describing the role of environmental stress in mobility decisions and thereby offering a systematic means for thinking through the processes by which environmental stress impacts upon mobility. While the framework is hypothesised to be suitably generalisable to account for other contexts and other environmental stresses, this still needs to be tested. In addition it is acknowledged that the framework suffers from some major limitations. Most notable is reliance on a conceptually false distinction between environmental and non-environmental factors, and the inability to account for the non-environmental features which shape perceptions of migration. 相似文献
17.
There is mounting evidence that major improvements in environmental quality in high-income countries over the past decades may have been achieved to a large degree through relocation of environmental impacts of consumption to other, usually poorer countries. While political and academic debates on appropriate policy interventions to address this challenge are gaining ground, we still know rather little about the drivers of international environmental impact shifting, other than international trade flows per se. We address this issue by focusing on the effects of economic inequality and political factors. We argue that income inequality between and within countries as well as variation in political institutions, environmental clauses in preferential trade agreements (PTAs), and participation in international environmental treaties could be important drivers or mitigators of environmental impact shifting between countries. We use novel panel data on five types of environmental impact flows between country dyads (187 countries, 1990–2015) to assess these arguments. We find that richer countries and countries with higher domestic economic equality tend to be the “outsourcers”, and poorer, domestically more unequal countries the “insourcers” of environmental impacts. Discrepancies in democracy levels aggravate the outsourcing from more equal to more unequal societies. In turn, environmental clauses in PTAs have a mitigating effect on environmental impact shifting, but participation in international environmental agreements has no such effect. Our findings highlight the need for green economy policies that reduce environmental footprints of consumption not only within high-income democracies, but also make their global supply chains more sustainable. 相似文献
18.
The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation
Land use change is a complex response to changing environmental and socioeconomic systems. Historical drivers of land use change include changes in the natural resource availability of a region, changes in economic conditions for production of certain products and changing policies. Most recently, introduction of policy incentives for biofuel production have influenced land use change in the US Midwest, leading to concerns that bioenergy production systems may compete with food production and land conservation. Here we explore how land use may be impacted by future climate mitigation measures by nesting a high resolution agricultural model (EPIC – Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) for the US Midwest within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM – Global Change Assessment Model). This approach is designed to provide greater spatial resolution and detailed agricultural practice information by focusing on the climate mitigation potential of agriculture and land use in a specific region, while retaining the global economic context necessary to understand the far ranging effects of climate mitigation targets. We find that until the simulated carbon prices are very high, the US Midwest has a comparative advantage in producing traditional food and feed crops over bioenergy crops. Overall, the model responds to multiple pressures by adopting a mix of future responses. We also find that the GCAM model is capable of simulations at multiple spatial scales and agricultural technology resolution, which provides the capability to examine regional response to global policy and economic conditions in the context of climate mitigation. 相似文献
19.
Global environmental change is increasing livelihood pressure for many communities, and agricultural households in the Global South are particularly vulnerable. Extant research has debated whether and to what degree this amplifies migration flows while also acknowledging that migration can be an adaptive strategy. However, little is known about which contextual factors are most relevant and how they interact in shaping environment-related migration. We shed light on this issue by conducting an in-depth qualitative, yet multisite and medium-N study of farming households in the northern Ethiopian highlands. We utilized qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) – a novel approach in the research field – to overcome the existing methodological challenges. We found that the migration experience within the household in combination with either the usage of the longer summer rainy season (Kiremt) or non-farm in situ diversification are sufficient causes for migration. Non-farm income activities and favorable environmental conditions during the Kiremt season increases economic household resources and as such migration ability. However, only together with migrant networks, which can reduce the costs and risks of migration and shape migration aspirations, can these drivers explain why households engage in migration. Our findings reveal that capabilities and networks, rather than commonly cited push factors, are far more important drivers of environment-related migration at the household level. Additionally, we illustrate that while migration is an important adaptation strategy, it cannot be adopted equally among households and as a result often reinforces existing inequalities. 相似文献
20.
Environmental concern is crucial as bottom-up support for policies that aim to tackle the multiple ecological crises. This paper investigates which characteristics of 206 European regions are robust drivers of generalized environmental concern. To this end, 25 Eurobarometer survey waves between 2009 and 2019 were combined with measures of the regional economy, population, geography, environmental quality, and meteorological events. Bayesian model averaging is used to systematically account for model uncertainty in the estimation of partial correlations. The results indicate that environmental concern increases with income level, a more equal distribution of income and wealth, and a less greenhouse gas-intensive industrial sector. Furthermore, regions with younger and better educated populations exhibit higher levels of environmental concern. In terms of environmental characteristics, both geographical vulnerability to natural hazards and meteorological events affect environmental concern. The results highlight the importance of the socio-economic and environmental context of opinion formation and have implications for designing and communicating environmental policies. 相似文献