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1.
For the first time in history, the majority of the world population now lives in cities. Global urbanization will continue at high speed; the world's urban population is projected to increase by more than 3 billion people between 2010 and 2050. Some of this increase will be the result of high urban fertility rates and reclassification of rural land into urban areas, but a significant portion of future urbanization will be caused by rural-to-urban migration. This migration is expected to be particularly prevalent in countries and regions most affected by the changing climate. While urban populations generally enjoy a higher quality of life, many cities in the developing world have large slums with populations that are largely excluded from access to resources, jobs, and public services. In the environmental security literature, great rural resource scarcity, causing rural to urban migration, is seen as an important source of violent conflict. This study investigates how population growth affects patterns of public unrest in urban centers within the context of crucial intervening factors like democracy, poverty, economic shocks. It utilizes a newly collected event dataset of urban social disturbance covering 55 major cities in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa since 1960. The empirical analysis provides little support for the notion that high and increasing urban population pressure leads to a higher risk or frequency of social disorder. Instead, we find that urban disorder is primarily associated with a lack of consistent political institutions, economic shocks, and ongoing civil conflict. 相似文献
2.
Rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
Alex de Sherbinin Leah K. VanWey Kendra McSweeney Rimjhim Aggarwal Alisson Barbieri Sabine Henry Lori M. Hunter Wayne Twine Robert Walker 《Global Environmental Change》2008,18(1):38-53
This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of microlevel studies have been conducted in either marginal (mountainous or arid) or frontier environments, especially Amazonia. Though the linkages are mediated by many complex and often context-specific factors, there is strong evidence that dependence on natural resources intensifies when households lose human and social capital through adult morbidity and mortality, and qualified evidence for the influence of environmental factors on household decision-making regarding fertility and migration. Two decades of research on lifecycles and land cover change at the farm level have yielded a number of insights about how households make use of different land-use and natural resource management strategies at different stages. A thread running throughout the review is the importance of managing risk through livelihood diversification, ensuring future income security, and culture-specific norms regarding appropriate and desirable activities and demographic responses. Recommendations for future research are provided. 相似文献
3.
2006年夏季川渝高温干旱分析 总被引：24，自引：0，他引：24
2006年夏季,我国重庆、四川等地持续高温少雨,遭遇特大伏旱,影响严重。初步分析表明,2006年盛夏川渝的异常高温事件可能是受全球变暖和天气扰动共同作用的结果,但以天气扰动的影响为主。大气环流异常,北方南下冷空气活动偏弱,西北太平洋副高脊线偏北以及冬季青藏高原积雪偏少是导致该地区2006年严重高温干旱的直接原因。 相似文献
4.
This study examines whether environmental migrants in Bangladesh move permanently or temporarily. The analyses are based on data collected in 2010 and 2011, and cover four themes, namely migrant characteristics, environmental change related factors, conflict and adaptation strategies, and social networks. The estimates obtained from binary logit models show that most sets of variables have statistically significant impacts on the temporary migration versus permanent migration decision. Females are more inclined to migrate temporarily, a finding which is consistent with prior studies that argued that female migration is one temporary household survival strategy in the face of an environmental crisis. The probability of intending to move temporarily is significantly affected by the prior occupational experience: Migrants who were previously engaged in agriculture or fishing are more inclined to migrate permanently. Those households who reported that they had lost assets due to environmental hazards are shown to have a higher probability of becoming permanent migrants. In contrast, loss of livestock and crop failure are associated with a greater likelihood of temporary migration. The empirical results reveal the groups that can be targeted in destination regions in settlement policy, and equally the groups whose return home can be facilitated once any immediate danger has passed. 相似文献
5.
The so-called ‘European Migrant Crisis’ has been blamed on armed conflict and economic misery, particularly in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa. Some have suggested that this process has been exacerbated by climate change and weather events. In this paper, we evaluate these claims, focusing on the role of droughts in influencing irregular migration flows to the European Union. Drawing on temporally disaggregated data on the detection of unauthorized migrants at EU external borders, we examine how weather shocks affect irregular migration. We show that weather events may indeed influence migration. Yet, in contradiction to the findings from recent research, we find no evidence that a drought in a sending country increases unauthorized migration to the EU. If anything, and while not entirely conclusive, the incidence of drought seems rather to exert a negative, albeit moderate, impact on the size of migration flows, in particular for countries dependent on agriculture. Conversely, higher levels of rainfall increase migration. We interpret this as evidence that international migration is cost-prohibitive, and that adverse weather shocks reinforce existing financial barriers to migration. 相似文献
6.
Climate change is predicted to cause voluntary and forced internal migration on an unprecedented scale in the coming decades. Yet, research on host communities that will be on the front lines in receiving the climate migrants has thus far been a neglected area within climate change research. Inspired by previous research on psychological distance’s impact on people’s behavior and attitudes, this article develops a conceptual framework proposing that spatial, attitudinal, experiential, and social proximities between migrants and host community members are central to understanding how attitudes toward internal climate migrants form and develop. Using multivariate regression analysis, the article applies the framework to a survey conducted among over 630 long-term residents in Satkhira District of Bangladesh, one of the most climate-exposed districts in the country. Supporting our hypotheses, we find evidence that host–migrant proximities shape attitudes toward internal climate migrants. Although the host community’s capacity to receive migrants matters for attitudes toward them, the results for the proximity variables underscore that these attitudes are profoundly relational, positional, and complex. In particular, we provide evidence that shorter spatial distance to highly exposed areas and attitudinal distance to fellow citizens in terms of values and worldviews improve host community members’ attitudes toward migrants. Further, the results for social proximity bring out the positional nature of attitudes, as they become more negative when socio-economic differences to migrants increase. 相似文献
7.
8.
This article discusses how conflict patterns affect the volume, direction and types of migration within the developing world. Conflict impact and poverty are the two primary drivers directly shaping migrations within poor and high-risk environments. Indirect drivers of migration include livelihood fragility, ecological and political instabilities. Conflicts overwhelmingly occur in states where much of the population is dependent upon the environment/natural resources for their livelihoods. There is little reliable evidence to suggest a link between civil conflict and climate change, however, the environmental changes occurring across developing states shape the ways in which civilians can respond to political and economic threats. The crucial point is that the communities who are subject to increasing environmental variation and disruption, through either external or internal processes, are likely to become poorer as a consequence. This poverty lessens their ability to respond to the myriad of threats in their environs, including conflict, ecological disasters, disease, or economic hardship. Hence, there is an endogeneity to conflict, precipitating factors and possible outcomes: the persistence of violence plays a determining role in the sustainability of livelihoods, poverty levels and the propensity of migration within chronically conflicted areas. Those most vulnerable to forced migration live in ‘chronically vulnerable areas’, which are characterized by the deterioration, loss or destruction of primary livelihood systems and productive assets, environmental degradation and deterioration of natural resources, increasing impoverishment of communities and households, geographical isolation and a dependence on relief. 相似文献
9.
Environmental migration is a topic which has given rise to widespread debate and gloomy predictions about the state of the world in 2050, but where rigorous research and empirical evidence are unfortunately in short supply. In this paper, we review the existing research on and empirical evidence of how climate change and climate variability in Less Developed Countries (LDCs) affects two main drivers of migration identified by migration models in the economic literature, namely income level differentials between origin and destination areas and income variability in origin areas, and how they in turn affect migration. We find that there are serious gaps in both the economic and the environmental literature that render it impossible to make sound and robust predictions of how climate change and increased climate variability will affect the economic migration drivers, and of how these in turn may change existing migration patterns. There are some empirical indications that income differentials may increase due to lower income levels in the origin areas of LDCs, but virtually no evidence exists of the effects of climate change or increased climate variability on income variability. Furthermore, although a negative relationship between migration and rainfall has been established by many researchers, there is only very limited evidence as to what drives it. A clearer picture of the driving force behind the link between rainfall and migration would greatly benefit policymaking in this area. 相似文献
10.
Which destinations will be most impacted by environmental migration? Most research on environmental migration examines the drivers of mobility, identifying the locations that are most affected by environmental change. By contrast, little attention is paid to where migrants might move to in response to these changes. The paper argues that much can be learned from applying established knowledge from the migration research literature to the specifics of environmental mobility. Migration destinations of environmental movers are examined in two different contexts. First, research is reported relating to the migration destinations of populations affected by drought and food insecurity. Second, Europe is studied as a destination region for migration flows. The paper concludes that, in place of estimates of the number of environmental migrants, a more productive focus of research would be to achieve deeper understanding of the destinations selected by current environmental migrants, and to appreciate why immobility is as great a problem as movement to new locations for those concerned with climate adaptation planning. 相似文献
11.
Global environmental change is increasing livelihood pressure for many communities, and agricultural households in the Global South are particularly vulnerable. Extant research has debated whether and to what degree this amplifies migration flows while also acknowledging that migration can be an adaptive strategy. However, little is known about which contextual factors are most relevant and how they interact in shaping environment-related migration. We shed light on this issue by conducting an in-depth qualitative, yet multisite and medium-N study of farming households in the northern Ethiopian highlands. We utilized qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) – a novel approach in the research field – to overcome the existing methodological challenges. We found that the migration experience within the household in combination with either the usage of the longer summer rainy season (Kiremt) or non-farm in situ diversification are sufficient causes for migration. Non-farm income activities and favorable environmental conditions during the Kiremt season increases economic household resources and as such migration ability. However, only together with migrant networks, which can reduce the costs and risks of migration and shape migration aspirations, can these drivers explain why households engage in migration. Our findings reveal that capabilities and networks, rather than commonly cited push factors, are far more important drivers of environment-related migration at the household level. Additionally, we illustrate that while migration is an important adaptation strategy, it cannot be adopted equally among households and as a result often reinforces existing inequalities. 相似文献
12.
Lynsey McColl Erika J. Palin Hazel E. Thornton David M. H. Sexton Richard Betts Ken Mylne 《Climatic change》2012,115(3-4):821-835
We investigate how weather affects the UK’s electricity network, by examining past data of weather-related faults on the transmission and distribution networks. By formalising the current relationship between weather-related faults and weather, we use climate projections from a regional climate model (RCM) to quantitatively assess how the frequency of these faults may change in the future. This study found that the incidences of both lightning and solar heat faults are projected to increase in the future. There is evidence that the conditions that cause flooding faults may increase in the future, but a reduction cannot be ruled out. Due to the uncertainty associated with future wind projections, there is no clear signal associated with the future frequency of wind and gale faults, however snow, sleet and blizzard faults are projected to decrease due to a reduction in the number of snow days. 相似文献
13.
Climate change interacts with social, economic, and political forces in ways that can shape demographic behavior. Yet, the link between environmental stress and marriage has received limited attention. Using survey data from 615 Bangladeshi households, we examine the relationship between extreme weather in the form of heat waves and dry spells, and the risk of marriage over the period from 1989 to 2013. We find that girls and women are at an increased risk of marrying in the year of or following heat waves. The link is strongest for women aged 18 to 23, and weakest for those 11 to 14. We also explore the hypothesis that extreme weather leads families to accept less desirable marriage proposals for daughters. We find that those who wed during periods of extreme heat married into poorer households and to husbands with less education. Similarly, those who married during abnormally dry periods married men man with less education and who were more supportive of intimate partner violence. Together these results suggest that, when Bangladeshi families face environmental shocks, they cope by hastening the marriage of daughters or accepting less desirable marriage proposals. Such practices are likely to have long-term impacts on the health and well-being of women and children, and underscore the unique vulnerabilities faced by women as climate change intensifies. 相似文献
14.
Graciano P. Yumul Jr. Carla B. Dimalanta Nathaniel T. Servando Nathaniel A. Cruz 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):715-727
The Philippines has recently experienced distinct changes in the weather patterns with disastrous results. These changes which were distinctly felt in 2009 included: 1. too much precipitation throughout the year; 2. some areas received a lot of rain while other parts of the country went through dry spell and drought conditions; and 3. abnormalities and variance in weather patterns (e.g. multiple entry of a tropical cyclone during an El Niño event; longer duration of tropical cyclone; deviations from the normal tropical cyclone path). The country, with its disaster risk management program in place, has managed to bring down the cost of damage and number of casualties due to weather-related disasters. However, in some instances, disaster risk response was made difficult due to other factors (e.g. degraded ecosystem, ill-managed land use and risk denial by people and communities). In general though, the resiliency and ability to recover by the people devastated by these disasters and the availability of community-based support systems provided the best means of coping with these catastrophic events. This is important as climate change is projected to bring more variations in the country’s weather and climate patterns which, as of now, are already adversely affecting the people. 相似文献
15.
2002年12月份江门地区出现大范围的冰雹，这在历史资料中是绝无仅有的，本文对这次强对流天气成因进行了分析，分析表明，此次强对流天气是在低层暖湿气流短时加强进退，江南锋生的有利环境背景下发生的。 相似文献
16.
The dramatic growth in the production and use of liquid biofuels has led to concerns about associated impacts on human health. To date however, there has been no attempt to comprehensively synthesize the literature on this topic, despite a wealth of new research published over the past few years. We searched the Medline and Embase databases, as well as Google Scholar, in order to review the state of evidence linking liquid biofuels to human health, to characterize the magnitude of potential impacts, and to identify areas in need of more empirical research. The search results indicate that the key pathways to health associated with liquid biofuels consist of four sets of exposures: occupational hazards; water/soil pollution; air pollution relating both to the production and use of the fuel; and the price of food (affecting nutrition). Of these, only air pollution and food price seem likely to meaningfully influence health at the population level: liquid biofuels may improve air quality – at least in urban environments – but could have serious adverse effects on nutrition in food-insecure populations. However, much more work is needed in both areas. Very few studies have explored more indirect pathways to health, such as those relating to land-use change, climate change and economic factors. 相似文献
17.
屋顶光伏为基础的农村新型能源系统战略研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
当前我国农村仍然面临着经济发展、清洁用能、环境保护、减少碳排放等多重问题,文中对我国农村地区发展屋顶光伏系统的资源潜力、技术方案、融资模式和重要意义进行了深入探讨和定量分析,结果表明,我国农村地区面临着能源、环境、经济发展的多重问题,“双碳”战略给解决“三农”问题提供了新的发展契机。发展以农村屋顶光伏系统为基础的新型农村能源系统是解决“三农”问题、实现乡村振兴的重点工作,也是我国建成新型电力系统、实现能源系统低碳转型的突破口和着力点。 相似文献
18.
定量评估极端天气影响农业总产值的方法 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
选取对极端天气敏感性和脆弱性较高的农业领域为研究对象,将极端天气因子和农业生产因子引入Cobb-Douglas生产函数,构建气候经济模型,定量分析了极端天气事件对浙江省农业总产值的影响。结果表明：极端天气因子与浙江省农业总产值存在长期均衡关系,对农业总产值有显著的负面影响。高温日数、低温日数、强降水日数每增加1%,浙江农业总产值分别减少0.072%、0.046%、0.076%;高温日数和强降水日数的短期波动对农业总产值也有显著的负面影响;不同区域的农业总产值受极端天气影响程度存在差异,浙江西北地区和西南地区相对东部沿海地区受极端天气影响更为严重。 相似文献
19.
Large-scale climatic variability exerts a strong influence on local-scale environmental patterns and processes. However, disentangling the effects of global climate forcing from observed patterns in local processes requires robust understanding of the underlying patterns of temporal variability and consideration of the specific setting in which these processes take place. Here, we examine the influence of intermediate-scale environmental factors in modulating the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on long-term water level dynamics in natural lakes. Lakes are ideal systems to study these relationships because of their acute sensitivity to environmental change and their linkages with multi-scale processes through the hydrological cycle. Using a novel combination of analytical tools, we show that the coupling between the NAO and water level dynamics is markedly nonstationary (i.e., time-frequency variant) and strongly lake-specific, filtered through the particular weather and environmental settings of lakes and their catchments. We conclude that to fully understand the nonstationary interplay between climate and ecology, we need first to disentangle the intermediate links between climate and different embedded environmental factors related to the process of interest. This knowledge should enhance significantly our ability to produce adequate long-term water resource management strategies, to preserve biological diversity and to achieve sustainable development under a globally changing climate. 相似文献
20.
《Global Environmental Change》2005,15(3):238-252
This research examines the impact of the farmland protection policy institutionalized for China's paddy field conversion in the mid-1990s. This paper demonstrates an integrated research method for studying land use-cover changes from the perspective of the interactions between policy changes and socioeconomic factors. The integrated method deploys remote sensing to obtain accurate measures of paddy field changes and applies multiple regression analysis to explore the interactions between paddy field change and socioeconomic factors. It constructs a policy-determined categorical regression analysis to investigate whether the policy change impacts paddy field conversion and how the policy interacts with other socioeconomic factors in affecting paddy field losses. A geographic information system is deployed to interpret the spatial patterns of the interactions. The case study in Wuxian City (Jiangsu Province) concludes that there is a distinct policy shift between 1990–1995 and 1995–2000. The policy of regulating farmland losses practiced in the mid-1990s has a significant role of slowing down paddy field conversion. But the success has been partial and was largely compromised in the rural areas due to the compounding forces of policies to promote rapid economic growth and better living standards. Moreover, continued rural to urban migration, rural economic development and rapid urban expansion represent the primary forces that lead to the conversion of paddy fields into non-agricultural uses. 相似文献