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1.
河南电网“污闪”故障的综合气象因素分析 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
综合考虑河南省范围内电网污闪故障的时空分布特征及地理地貌特征,利用河南省电网污闪故障数据及地面气象观测数据,研究首先确定了与该地区电网污闪故障密切相关的积污持续时间、近地层逆温、相对湿度、风速风向等环境气象特征参数,然后采用时空匹配、统计阈值分析和综合气象指标调整优化等手段,对各特征参数的综合阈值进行了初步评定,最终建立了河南省电网污闪故障的可定量化综合气象分析指标及对应气象条件:高湿、弱风、前期少雨、近地面大气层结稳定。该指标较好地拟合了气象环境条件与污闪故障之间的关系,检验结果显示指标无漏报,且空报率低于10%;基于该指标计算的多年平均条件下,河南地区污闪故障多发生在冬季,且河南东北部为电网污闪故障高发区。研究成果为河南地区的电网污闪故障防御提供了技术支持。 相似文献
2.
Climate change views have their socioeconomic foundations but also specific geographies. In merging these perspectives, this analysis uses ESS Round 8 data from 23 European countries to examine whether climate change scepticism and concern, pro-environmental personal norm and a willingness to engage in energy-saving behaviour exhibit, first, urban–rural and/or regional differences, and second, if these attitudes can be explained at individual level by socioeconomic position and wellbeing resources. We find that climate change scepticism and concern do exhibit urban–rural differences, where living in a country village is associated with greater climate scepticism and lower concern compared to living in a big city. Also, higher climate change concern and pro-environmental norms are associated with living in a region with constant population growth. These geographical differences are independent of individual-level socioeconomic attributes as well as one’s political orientation. Additionally, the results show that both climate change attitudes and reporting energy-saving behaviour are strongly stratified by level of education and reveal that those in lower income deciles feel less pro-environmental norm but nonetheless report greater engagement with energy-saving behaviour. In sum, the results highlight that climate change mitigation is not a uniform project either spatially or within certain socioeconomic strata. Hence, our results suggest that socioeconomic disadvantage (belonging to the lowest education and income levels) and spatial marginalisation (living in more rural surroundings and declining regions) should be better acknowledged when reworking climate change and environmental policies in the EU. 相似文献
3.
How much are Chinese people and various citizen groups concerned about the environment relative to other major public problems? What are the key factors and to what extent do these factors shape individual Chinese environmental concern? Based on a micro-macro model and a county fixed model proposed in this study, we employ nationwide representative public opinion survey data and provincial statistics to examine the determinants and variations of public environmental concern in China. The data shows that environmental concern is not among the top-ranked issue concerns in China overall, but in the urban areas and in the east-coastal region environmental protection features as a rather important issue. Our regression analyses further demonstrate that the Chinese environmental concern is significantly affected by both micro-level socio-demographic variables and macro-level regional economic conditions and environmental risks. In the east-coastal region, such individuals as urbanites with high income are most environmentally concerned. There is a lack of concern over environmental issues among the public in the west region, where little association between individual sociodemographics and their environmental concern is detected. In the central-northeast region, education effect is evident in the rural area. Location contextual factors such as economic development and environmental risk account for most of the observed variations in public environment concern. 相似文献
4.
1961—2015年中国暴雨变化诊断及其与多种气候因子的关联性研究 总被引：5，自引：4，他引：5
气候变化背景下,频发的暴雨事件造成城市内涝、人员伤亡和财产损失,已经成为全社会广泛关注的焦点问题之一。为了诊断中国暴雨的时空变化及其与不同自然因子的关联性,采用1961—2015年中国659个降水站点数据,采用线性趋势、EOF分析等多种统计方法诊断了中国暴雨时空变化特征,结果表明,中国暴雨雨量、雨日和雨强在1961—2015年以胡焕庸线为界呈现出东南高-西北低的气候态空间分布格局;线性趋势分析表明1961—2015年中国暴雨雨量和雨日从东南沿海向西北内陆呈明显“增-减-增”的空间分布格局,且呈增长趋势的站点占主导,分别高达80.88%和79.81%;从西北内陆到东南沿海的年代剖面分析表明中国暴雨雨量和雨日随着年代推移在迅速增长;对低通滤波后的中国暴雨进行EOF分析表明中国暴雨雨量和雨日的增长东南沿海快,内陆地区慢。根据IPCC等已有研究中筛选出对中国地区有影响的28个气候因子,并将其与659个站点的暴雨进行相关分析,结果表明不同气候因子与不同区域暴雨呈现出错综复杂的相关性特征,其中与暴雨雨量呈现以正相关和负相关为主的气候因子分别为15和13个,全局相关因子包含AAO(Antarctic Oscillation)、Pacific Warmpool,而其它气候因子在七大分区中与暴雨的关联性各有突出,表现出明显的空间异质性。 相似文献
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6.
A series of numerical experiments were carried out to study the effect of meteorological events such as warm and cold air masses on climatic features and variability of a understudied region with strong topographic gradients in the northeastern part of Mexico. We applied the mesoscale model MM5. We investigated the influence of soil moisture availability in the performance of the model under two representative events for winter and summer. The results showed that a better resolution in land use cover improved the agreement among observed and calculated data. The topography induces atmospheric circulation patterns that determine the spatial distribution of climate and seasonal behavior. The numerical experiments reveal regions favorable to forced convection on the eastern side of the mountain chains Eastern Sierra Madre and Sierra de Alvarez. These processes affect the vertical and horizontal structure of the meteorological variables along the topographic gradient. 相似文献
7.
为了深入了解陇东黄土高原气象干旱时空分布特征,以提高干旱灾害的监测、预报、预警及防治能力,减少经济损失,利用庆阳市8个县(区)30a(1989~2018年)降水资料,计算了各县(区)月、季、年降水距平百分率,按降水距平百分率干旱指标选取干旱事件,从月、季、年不同时间尺度统计分析了陇东黄土高原气象干旱时空特征,并对该地区2011~2018年的灾情进行了分析。结果表明：30a来气象干旱发生的频次存在自西北向东南逐渐减少的特点。气象干旱发生的月频次呈波动状,其中12月最多,7月份最少；气象干旱主要发生在春季,以轻旱为主,中旱次之,重旱及特旱发生概率较小。从19世纪90年代到现在气象干旱事件发生的年频次逐渐减少,其造成的农作物成灾面积有逐年减少的趋势,这是因为我国提出了建设社会主义生态文明的思想,人们保护环境的意识增强,合理的利用了空间水资源,调整产业结构,种植防旱植被,加强水利工程建设,改善生态环境所致。 相似文献
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苏静 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2024,18(2)
基于陕西省10地市2015—2020年PM2.5浓度实况监测数据和同期EMI指数，统计分析EMI和PM2.5相关性及近年EMI的时空分布特征，定量评估气象条件变化及综合治理措施对陕西环境空气质量的影响。结果表明：陕西省2015—2020年EMI指数可以较好的表征和评估气象条件变化导致PM2.5浓度的变化。2015—2020年EMI指数呈线性降低趋势，气象条件持续向好。月EMI指数均呈明显的单谷分布特征，EMI指数冬半年大，夏半年小。各区域EMI指数总体上呈关中高、陕南次之，陕北最低的分布特点，关中中、东部EMI指数最大。EMI正距平百分比高值区主要出现在关中地区，各年关中均有60%以上面积正距平，其中2016年冬季关中83.0%面积正距平，37.5%面积正距平超过100%。2020年陕西省各区域环境空气质量较2015—2019年均有明显改善，全省PM2.5浓度较前5 a平均降低24.8%，全省气象条件改善使PM2.5浓度较近5 a降低16.4%，排放变化使得PM2.5浓度较前5 a平均下降9.4%，可见近年陕西省大气污染综合治理措施成果显著，环境质量明显改善。 相似文献
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中国乡村振兴核心区生态环境较脆弱,暴雨洪涝等气象灾害频发,在此背景下,定量、科学地评估乡村振兴核心区全球升温情景下极端降水的变化特征,能够为乡村振兴核心区防止因灾返贫策略等的制定提供一定的科学依据。本研究基于CMIP6(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6)气候模式下不同SSPs-RCPs(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways)组合情景模拟数据,对全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下中国乡村振兴核心区极端降水事件频次、强度和持续时间的变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:(1)相对于基准期(1995~2014年),全球升温1.5℃情景下,乡村振兴核心区受极端降水影响明显增大,面积占比60.91%的区域极端降水频次增加,面积占比88.19%的区域极端降水强度增强,面积占比81.07%的区域极端降水持续时间增加;(2)全球升温2.0℃情景下,乡村振兴核心区三项极端降水指标变化与升温1.5℃情景下相似,相对于基准期有增加趋势,极端降水频次、强度和持续时间面积占比分别为55.78%、85.24%、79.33%;(3)从空间角度分析,全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下,乡村振兴核心区中西部相较东部可能更易受极端降水的影响,西藏片区频次和持续时间增加显著,尤其值得关注;(4)当全球升温从1.5℃到2.0℃情景,乡村振兴核心区整体极端降水特征的变化未表现出明显增减趋势及空间特征。相比1.5℃较基准期的变化,2.0℃情景下极端降水频次、强度、持续时间的增加区域范围均缩小,但平均增幅均变大,对于发生极端降水事件的乡村振兴核心区区域而言可能面临更大的风险。 相似文献
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Asian dust events occurred in Asia during March 2010 were simulated using the Asian Dust Aerosol Model 2 (ADAM2). The performance of the model for simulations of surface dust concentrations and dust event occurrences was tested at several monitoring sites located in the dust source region and the downstream region of Korea. The observed and modeled dust event occurrences at each monitoring site were defined with the hourly observed and modeled dust concentrations that were used to evaluate the performance of the model by constructing a contingency table for the dust event occurrence. It was found that the model simulated quite well the starting and ending times of dust events with their peak dust concentrations for most dust events occurred both in the dust source region and the downstream region of Korea. However, the model failed to simulate a few dust events observed in both regions mainly due to the inaccurate simulations of the meteorological fields. Inaccurate simulations of wind speeds have caused for the model to simulate dust events poorly in the dust source region whereas poor simulations of precipitation of the fifth-generation mesoscale model (MM5) model have led to miss dust events in the downstream region of Korea. The contingency table made with the hourly data for the dust event occurrence made it possible to evaluate the ADAM2 model for the simulation of the dust event occurrence. It was found that the model has the probabilistic simulation capability for dust events of about 78% with the hit rate of more than 83% and the false alarm rate of about 27% for the dust events occurred during March in 2010. The probabilistic capability of the model could be much improved by improving the meteorological model (MM5 model). 相似文献
11.
Alexander Arpaci Chris S. Eastaugh Harald Vacik 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,114(3-4):393-406
The interpretation and communication of fire danger warning levels based on fire weather index values are critical for fire management activities. A number of different indices have been developed for various environmental conditions, and many of them are currently applied in operational warning systems. To select an appropriate combination of such indices to work in different ecoregions in mountainous, hilly and flat terrain is challenging. This study analyses the performance of a total of 22 fire weather indices and two raw meteorological variables to predict wildfire occurrence for different ecological regions of Austria with respect to the different characteristics in climate and fire regimes. A median-based linear model was built based on percentile results on fire days and non-fire days to get quantifiable measures of index performance using slope and intercept of an index on fire days. We highlight the finding that one single index is not optimal for all Austrian regions in both summer and winter fire seasons. The summer season (May–November) shows that the Canadian build-up index, the Keetch Byram Drought Index and the mean daily temperature have the best performance; in the winter season (December–April), the M68dwd is the best performing index. It is shown that the index performance on fire days where larger fires appeared is better and that the uncertainties related to the location of the meteorological station can influence the overall results. A proposal for the selection of the best performing fire weather indices for each Austrian ecoregion is made. 相似文献
12.
雾和霾都是低能见度天气,生成条件相似。利用安徽78个地面站逐时观测资料,基于雾、霾发生物理条件,建立了不同等级雾日和重度霾日的观测诊断方法,重建了不同等级雾和重度霾的时序资料。根据各站强浓雾发生的同步性,将安徽分为5个雾、霾分布特征不同的区域,探讨了各区域不同等级雾及重度霾出现时地面气象条件的异同。结果表明:（1）安徽省强浓雾主要是辐射雾。强浓雾、浓雾和大雾空间分布形势大体一致,淮河以北东、西部和江南都属于强浓雾高发区,但各地强浓雾的时、空分布特征和影响系统不同;重度霾有明显的北多、南少、山区最少的分布特征。（2）强浓雾年变化呈双峰型分布,峰值在1月和4月,日变化为单峰型,峰值在06时;而重度霾年变化为单峰型,峰值在1月,日变化为双峰型。（3）在强浓雾的高发时段（02—08时）,强浓雾时降温幅度最大,比重度霾平均高1℃,风速显著偏低,超过75%的样本风速低于1.5 m/s,且无明显主导风向;而重度霾时,风速比雾时明显要大,个别区域有超过75%的样本风速大于1.5 m/s,且以西北风到东北风为主。说明重度霾能否演变为强浓雾的关键地面气象因子是风速、风向和降温幅度。 相似文献
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Synoptic weather typing and regression-based downscaling approaches have become popular in evaluating the impacts of climate change on a variety of environmental problems, particularly those involving extreme impacts. One of the reasons for the popularity of these approaches is their ability to categorize a complex set of meteorological variables into a coherent index, facilitating the projection of changes in frequency and intensity of future daily extreme weather events and/or their impacts. This paper illustrated the capability of the synoptic weather typing and regression methods to analyze climatic change impacts on a number of extreme weather events and environmental problems for south–central Canada, such as freezing rain, heavy rainfall, high-/low-streamflow events, air pollution, and human health. These statistical approaches are helpful in analyzing extreme events and projecting their impacts into the future through three major steps or analysis procedures: (1) historical simulation modeling to identify extreme weather events or their impacts, (2) statistical downscaling to provide station-scale future hourly/daily climate data, and (3) projecting changes in the frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events and their impacts under a changing climate. To realize these steps, it is first necessary to conceptualize the modeling of the meteorology, hydrology and impacts model variables of significance and to apply a number of linear/nonlinear regression techniques. Because the climate/weather validation process is critical, a formal model result verification process has been built into each of these three steps. With carefully chosen physically consistent and relevant variables, the results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables simulated by the models, show a very good agreement in all applications and extremes tested to date. Overall, the modeled results from climate change studies indicate that the frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events and their impacts are generally projected to significantly increase late this century over south–central Canada under a changing climate. The implications of these increases need be taken into consideration and integrated into policies and planning for adaptation strategies, including measures to incorporate climate change into engineering infrastructure design standards and disaster risk reduction measures. This paper briefly summarized these climate change research projects, focusing on the modeling methodologies and results, and attempted to use plain language to make the results more accessible and interesting to the broader informed audience. These research projects have been used to support decision-makers in south–central Canada when dealing with future extreme weather events under climate change. 相似文献
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利用2019—2021年金华市空气负氧离子浓度和气象环境资料，研究不同区域（平原城区、平原公园、水边景区、山林景区）负氧离子浓度时空分布特征，分析人类活动最多的城区负氧离子浓度与气象环境因素不同时间尺度的相关性，以及不同天空状况的差异。结果表明：负氧离子浓度呈现平原低、山区高的分布特征，植被茂密、动态水流可增加负氧离子浓度和提高浓度等级。山林景区日出和日落前后负氧离子浓度较高，水边景区凌晨和午后出现高值，平原地区则在下午达到高峰。不同区域四季日变化趋势整体较一致，但不同季节负氧离子浓度峰值大小、日较差和出现峰值时刻存在差异。四季不同区域负氧离子浓度有所差异，主要表现为6—9月高，其中尤以8月山林景区为最。负氧离子浓度与气象环境因素的相关性在不同时间尺度上差异较大：时尺度上与气温、风速、雨量和O3呈显著正相关，而与PM2.5呈显著负相关。四季看，负氧离子浓度春季与风速相关性最高，夏季为气温，秋季为O3，冬季为PM2.5。日尺度上则与相对湿度、风速、雨量呈显著正相关，与PM2.5和O3呈显著负相关，且雨天负氧离子浓度明显高于其他天空状况，差异在冬季达最大。 相似文献
15.
利用中尺度气象模式模拟了特殊地形下的气象变化特征,通过CALPUFF模拟了大气环境风险事件的精细化扩散特征。结果表明：西宁市地面风特征与河谷地形走向基本一致,典型风场表现为湟水河谷盛行西北和东南风,北川河谷则多为偏北风。由于青藏高原昼间强烈的山坡辐射增热和致使低空出现逆温层频率高,强度大,不利于污染物在垂直方向的扩散,河谷剖面模拟温度场的结果显示等高度山坡附近比河谷中心的温度大约高1.5℃。CALPUFF烟团轨迹模式能较好地应用于西宁市大气环境风险事件的模拟研究,模拟结果能清楚描绘出污染物沿河谷输送与扩散的初始状况和细致分布,同时在复杂地形和气象条件影响下出现山体对烟团的阻碍效应、烟团因流场在山脊处出现形变以及山谷风环流影响等非定常扩散现象,扩散轨迹符合复杂地形和气象条件影响的特征和规律,模拟结果对准确预估大气环境风险事件在复杂地形和气象条件下城市中的扩散特征、影响范围和程度具有重要意义。 相似文献
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利用合肥多普勒天气雷达回波和各种常规资料,对2010年梅雨期皖江一次大暴雨天气过程的雷达回波进行分析,探讨短时大暴雨的回波特征。结果表明：有利的大尺度环流,充足的水汽条件和较强的上升运动是产生强降水有利的天气背景。雷达资料分析发现形成此次皖江暴雨的源地位于大别山区,强降水是由局地发展的对流回波加强合并产生的,回波的发生和发展加强常常与风场的局地强辐合区（逆风区）相联系,雨带在中低空切变线上合并加强,强降水区域尺度较大,单体回波移向和雨带走向一致,回波移动缓慢或呈准静止状态,累积雨量大,易于形成暴雨。 相似文献
17.
敦煌地区沙尘气溶胶质量浓度的观测研究 总被引：18，自引：6，他引：12
在沙尘源区进行长期监测是获取区域代表性沙尘气溶胶质量浓度特征的重要研究方法。敦煌位于甘肃省河西走廊的西端,是中国北方主要沙尘源区之一,利用大流量采样器和安德森采样器进行了长达30个月的试验观测研究,获得了该地区沙尘气溶胶的基本特征。其年变化特征与气象资料的年变化关系密切;针对典型天气过程的观测结果表明,不同天气条件（背景大气、浮尘、扬沙和沙尘暴）下TSP浓度存在倍数关系和量级的差异,其质量浓度随粒径的分布特征也明显不同;并与2001年9月-2004年3月在腾格里沙漠东南缘沙坡头地区的一些观测结果进行了比较分析。 相似文献
18.
气象保障是历届冬季奥林匹克运动会（冬奥会）成功举办的最重要条件之一。延庆赛区（位于延庆海陀山区）地形复杂、山高坡陡、垂直落差大,因而观测难度大、气象数据稀少,成为影响赛区精细化预报的核心因素,对冬奥气象服务提出了严峻挑战。为此,北京市气象局组织开展了冬奥海陀山综合气象观测,针对该区复杂地形和多尺度气象影响系统构建了包含中、小、微尺度的三维立体实时综合观测平台,观测要素涵盖了三维风场、温湿度场、云和能见度、近地面湍流与辐射等。综合观测将提高对复杂山区高影响天气特征和机理的认知,为改进和提高预报模式提供数据支撑。文中系统介绍了海陀山冬奥气象综合观测平台的科学目标、观测布局、观测内容以及观测平台在降雪过程中的初步应用,最后阐述了基于该观测进一步开展的研究计划。 相似文献
19.
Public support for stringent climate policies is currently weak. We develop a model to study the dynamics of public support for climate policies. It comprises three interconnected modules: one calculates policy impacts; a second translates these into policy support mediated by social influence; and a third represents the regulator adapting policy stringency depending on public support. The model combines general-equilibrium and agent-based elements and is empirically grounded in a household survey, which allows quantifying policy support as a function of effectiveness, personal wellbeing and distributional effects. We apply our approach to compare two policy instruments, namely carbon taxation and performance standards, and identify intertemporal trajectories that meet the climate target and count on sufficient public support. Our results highlight the importance of social influence, opinion stability and income inequality for public support of climate policies. Our model predicts that carbon taxation consistently generates more public support than standards. Finally, we show that under moderate social influence and income inequality, an increasing carbon tax trajectory combined with progressive revenue redistribution receives the highest average public support over time. 相似文献
20.
利用山东省123个国家地面气象观测站1961—2019年逐日、逐小时降水量资料,在定义区域性暴雨事件的基础上,选取最大过程降水量、最大日降水量、最大1 h降水量、暴雨站数和过程持续时间作为评估指标,构建山东省区域暴雨事件和单站暴雨事件综合强度评估模型。针对判别出的545次区域暴雨事件,进行时空特征分析。结果表明,山东省区域暴雨事件发生次数呈现波动变化、缓慢下降趋势,但平均综合强度呈现缓慢上升趋势,且2011年以来上升趋势显著。区域暴雨事件集中发生于7、8月,其中以7月发生次数最多,8月平均综合强度最高。降雨中心主要分布于半岛东部和鲁南地区,不同时段分布配置略有不同,但差别不大。历史回算结果与灾情记录一致性较高,以台风"利奇马"暴雨过程为例,通过分县灾情验证表明暴雨事件综合评估模型评估结果较为合理,尤其对历史重大暴雨事件吻合效果理想。 相似文献