共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
The feasibility of two low-carbon society (LCS) scenarios, one with and one without nuclear power and carbon capture and storage (CCS), is evaluated using the AIM/Enduse[Global] model. Both scenarios suggest that achieving a 50% emissions reduction target (relative to 1990 levels) by 2050 is technically feasible if locally suited technologies are introduced and the relevant policies, including necessary financial transfers, are appropriately implemented. In the scenario that includes nuclear and CCS options, it will be vital to consider the risks and acceptance of these technologies. In the scenario without these technologies, the challenge will be how to reduce energy service demand. In both scenarios, the estimated investment costs will be higher in non-Annex I countries than in Annex I countries. Finally, the enhancement of capacity building to support the deployment of locally suited technologies will be central to achieving an LCS. Policy relevance Policies to reduce GHG emissions up to 2050 are critical if the long-term target of stabilizing the climate is to be achieved. From a policy perspective, the cost and social acceptability of the policy used to reduce emissions are two of the key factors in determining the optimal pathways to achieve this. However, the nuclear accident at Fukushima highlighted the risk of depending on large-scale technologies for the provision of energy and has led to a backlash against the use of nuclear technology. It is found that if nuclear and CCS are used it will be technically feasible to halve GHG emissions by 2050, although very costly. However, although the cost of halving emissions will be about the same if neither nuclear nor CCS is used, a 50% reduction in emissions reduction will not be achievable unless the demand for energy service is substantially reduced. 相似文献
2.
分析、解读了IPCC第五次评估报告对能源供应,工业,交通,建筑,农业、林业和其他土地利用（AFOLU）等部门温室气体和CO2减排途径和措施评估的主要结论。2000年以来,除了AFOLU,其他部门的温室气体排放量一直在增长。在增加的排放量中能源系统、工业、交通运输和建筑部门分别贡献了47%、30%、11%和3%。未来,这些部门仍将是全球温室气体的主要排放源和减排的重点领域。通过推进技术进步,持续提高能源效率,进一步优化能源结构,提高碳排放效率,提高原材料使用效率,强化废物管理,提高产品使用效率,减少对产品及相应服务的需求以及广泛利用碳捕获与封存和CO2去除技术,到2050年与基准情景相比,这些部门的CO2排放量可减少15%～80%。所有这些减排措施对我国主要部门减排CO2均具有借鉴意义。 相似文献
3.
IPCC第六次评估报告第三工作组报告交通运输章评估了该行业温室气体的减缓措施和转型路径。1990年以来,全球交通运输部门温室气体排放量一直增长,2019年已经成为全球第四大排放源,仅次于电力、工业以及农业、林业和其他土地利用(AFOLU)部门,其增长速度超过其他最终用途行业。报告强调了交通减排的重要性,主要的减排措施包括三方面:首先是减少需求,其次是对陆路交通部门进行脱碳,再次是对重型的水运和航空运输等进行脱碳。评估的多种燃料和动力技术处于不同的商业化水平,它们未来应用时间节点和规模各有不同。对于陆路交通来说,需要继续推进电气化;对于水运和航空来说需要进一步应用低碳技术,并优化国际管理机制;从中长期来看,所有部门都需要强调运输服务需求管理和运输效率的提升。情景相关的文献评述分析表明,全球温升目标要求全经济部门采取减排措施,特别是交通电气化的减排潜力在很大程度上取决于电力部门的脱碳。如果不采取减缓措施,交通运输部门排放在2050年可能增长65%(相对2010年);如果成功实施减缓战略,该部门的排放量将减少68%,这也与全球1.5℃温升目标要求相一致。关于这些减缓措施的分析和判断,对我国交通运输部门实现碳中和与碳达峰具有重要的参考意义。 相似文献
4.
As a hard-to-abate sector, the iron and steel industry is responsible for 22% of China’s total carbon emissions and therefore plays a crucial role in achieving China’s carbon peaking and neutrality target. Nearly 90% of China’s iron and steel output is produced with coal-based blast furnaces, which results in high carbon emission intensity. To peak China’s carbon emissions and achieve the carbon neutrality target, it is essential to accelerate the application of breakthrough technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen-based steel-making. This paper estimates the future CO2 emissions from China’s iron and steel industry in pathways that consider the influence of different technology portfolios, technology maturity, decarbonization of power systems, and future steel production output. The results show that using currently available technology, China’s iron and steel industry can reduce CO2 emissions by more than 50%. However, it cannot achieve the neutrality target without using innovative technologies. By combining conventional strategies with net-zero emission technologies such as CCS and hydrogen metallurgy, approximately 80–90% emission reduction can be achieved, thus leading to a carbon neutrality pathway, which can meet the 1.5°C targets of the carbon budget limit either. In the future, carbon emissions' reduction potential will be influenced by the decarbonization of power systems and the diffusion rate of innovative technologies. To achieve carbon neutrality, it is essential to act sooner and faster. 相似文献
5.
This paper uses the MERGE integrated assessment model to identify the least-cost mitigation strategy for achieving a range of climate policies. Mitigation is measured in terms of GDP foregone. This is not a benefit-cost analysis. No attempt is made to calculate the reduction in damages brought about by a particular policy. Assumptions are varied regarding the availability of energy-producing and energy-using technologies. We find pathways with substantial reductions in temperature change, with the cost of reductions varying significantly, depending on policy and technology assumptions. The set of scenarios elucidates the potential energy system transformation demands that could be placed on society. We find that policy that allows for “overshoot” of a radiative forcing target during the century results in lower costs, but also a higher temperature at the end of the century. We explore the implications of the costs and availability of key mitigation technologies, including carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy, and their combination, known as BECS, as well as nuclear and energy efficiency. The role of “negative emissions” via BECS in particular is examined. Finally, we demonstrate the implications of nationally adopted emissions timetables based on articulated goals as a counterpoint to a global stabilization approach. 相似文献
6.
减缓气候变化的最新科学认知 总被引：9，自引：5，他引：9
摘 要：2007年5月4日，IPCC第三工作组在泰国曼谷发布了第四次评估报告《气候变化2007：减缓气候变化》的决策者摘要及主报告。报告综合评估了2001年以来有关减缓气候变化的最新研究成果，考察分析了中短期（2030年前）和长期（2030年后）温室气体的排放情景、减排潜力、成本范围，以及稳定大气温室气体（GHG）浓度水平的可能选择。报告总体认为，未来温室气体排放取决于发展路径的选择，现有各种技术手段和许多在2030年以前具有市场可行性的低碳和减排技术，将以较低的成本实现有效减排；在2030年以后将温室气体浓度稳定在较低水平的成本并不高，但需要国际合作，采取一致行动，并认为可持续发展与温室气体减排可以相互促进。 相似文献
7.
Achieving long-term climate mitigation goals in Japan faces several challenges, starting with the uncertain nuclear power policy after the 2011 earthquake, the uncertain availability and progress of energy technologies, as well as energy security concerns in light of a high dependency on fuel imports. The combined weight of these challenges needs to be clarified in terms of the energy system and macroeconomic impacts. We applied a general equilibrium energy economic model to assess these impacts on an 80% emission reduction target by 2050 considering several alternative scenarios for nuclear power deployment, technology availability, end use energy efficiency, and the price of fossil fuels. We found that achieving the mitigation target was feasible for all scenarios, with considerable reductions in total energy consumption (39%–50%), higher shares of low-carbon sources (43%–72% compared to 15%), and larger shares of electricity in the final energy supply (51%–58% compared to 42%). The economic impacts of limiting nuclear power by 2050 (3.5% GDP loss) were small compared to the lack of carbon capture and storage (CCS) (6.4% GDP loss). Mitigation scenarios led to an improvement in energy security indicators (trade dependency and diversity of primary energy sources) even in the absence of nuclear power. Moreover, preliminary analysis indicates that expanding the range of renewable energy resources can lower the macroeconomic impacts of the long term target considerably, and thus further in depth analysis is needed on this aspect.
Key policy insights
For Japan, an emissions reduction target of 80% by 2050 is feasible without nuclear power or CCS.
The macroeconomic impact of such a 2050 target was largest without CCS, and smallest without nuclear power.
Energy security indicators improved in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline.
8.
In the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, countries like Germany and Japan have planned a phase-out of nuclear generation. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology has yet to become a commercially viable technology with little prospect of doing so without strong climate policy to spur development. The possibility of using renewable power generation from wind and solar as a non-emitting alternative to replace a nuclear phase-out or failure to deploy CCS technology is investigated using scenarios from EMF27 and the POLES model. A strong carbon price appears necessary to have significant penetration of renewables regardless of alternative generation technologies available, but especially if nuclear or CCS are absent from the energy supply system. The feasibility of replacing nuclear generation appears possible at realistic costs (evaluated as total abatement costs and final user prices to households); however for ambitious climate policies, such as a 450 ppm target, CCS could represent a critical technology that renewables will not be able to fully replace without unbearable economic costs. 相似文献
9.
It is a broadly accepted fact that a clear reduction of global GHG emissions is required to limit the increase of global warming to a tolerable level. A key issue in this context is the optimal breakdown of reduction targets among different world regions or even countries. Using the European Commission-funded PLANETS project, cost-optimal global burden sharing to reach global GHG reduction targets was analysed, and an optimal allocation of GHG reductions was identified, relative to the global target, to the commitments of different world regions and the trade possibilities for emission certificates. Specifically, it is evaluated how Europe can contribute in a cost-optimal way to keeping the global concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere below 530 parts per million equivalent (ppme) or below a stricter global reduction target of 500 ppme. Based on the energy system model TIMES PanEU, the potentials for emissions reduction in the different energy sectors and EU Member States and the role of key technologies are analysed. The most cost-effective potentials for GHG reductions in Europe are in the conversion/production, residential and industrial sectors. Substantial reductions in the transport sector occur only under very stringent reduction targets. Achieving ambitious reduction targets requires considerable contributions from all EU Member States until 2050. 相似文献
10.
Tom Mikunda Heleen de Coninck Morgan Bazilian Hilke Rösler Bob van der Zwaan 《Climate Policy》2013,13(5):665-676
Attaining deep greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions in industry in order to support a stringent climate change control target will be difficult without recourse to CO2 capture and storage (CCS). Using the insights from a long-term bottom-up energy systems model, and undertaking a sectoral assessment, we investigated the importance of CCS in the industrial sector. Under climate policy aimed at limiting atmospheric concentration of GHGs to 650 ppm CO2e, costs could increase fivefold when CCS is excluded from the portfolio of mitigation option measures in the industry sector as compared to when CCS is excluded in the power sector. This effect is driven largely by the lack of alternatives for deep emission reductions in industry. Our main policy conclusion is that a broader recognition of CCS in industrial applications in both current policy discussions and research, development, and demonstration funding programmes is justified. In recognition of the heterogeneity of the many types of industrial production processes, the size and location of industrial CO2 sources, the specific need for CCS-retrofitting, and the exposure of most industrial sectors to international trade, policies aimed at supporting CCS must distinguish between the different challenges faced by the power and industrial sectors. 相似文献
11.
China is the world's largest carbon dioxide (CO2) emitter and its energy system is dominated by coal. For China to dramatically reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the next few decades, it must either replace most of its uses of coal with energy supplies from renewables and nuclear power or install demonstration-size and then scaled-up carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Currently, China is pushing ahead with increased investment in renewables and nuclear power and with demonstration CCS projects. This strategy is consistent with a country that seeks to be ready in case global pressures prompt it to launch an aggressive GHG reduction effort while also not going so fast that it reduces the likelihood of receiving substantial financial support from wealthier countries, as it feels it is entitled to as a developing country. At such a time, given the magnitude of the coal resource in China, and the country's lack of other energy resources, it is likely the Chinese will make a substantial effort to develop CCS before taking the much more difficult step of trying to phase-out almost all use of coal in the span of just a few decades in a country that is so dependent on this domestically abundant and economically affordable resource. 相似文献
12.
This paper explores concepts of carbon lock-in arising from the technologies of CO2 capture and storage (CCS). We examine the argument that CCS reduces carbon lock-in and the calls for a CCS ‘mandate’ and emission performance standards. We analyse the pros- and cons- of a low-carbon fossil fuel lock-in, arguing that lock-in per se is not the problem; it is rather the depth of lock-in which creates problems because deeper lock-in reduces flexibility and increases the ‘error cost’ (i.e. the cost of a decision which turns out to be based on incorrect understanding) and should be avoided. A set of technical and institutional indicators for measuring the flexibility of different technologies is then presented and applied to three technologies: a landfill gas power generator, a conventional nuclear power plant and a CCS plant under development in California. We conclude that these indicators are a useful way forward in assessing individual projects and that public authorities and other stakeholders might wish to employ some version of these indicators in their deliberations on the role of CCS. 相似文献
13.
《巴黎协定》引入了全球应对气候变化的1.5℃温控目标,但是没有就其实现路径做出清晰安排。实现1.5℃目标对全球减排提出更高要求,各国自主贡献目标距离该目标有较大差距,常规减排技术和政策也很难完成任务。在此背景下,国际上有关地球工程的讨论日渐升温。《巴黎协定》实际上已经包含了人工造林,碳捕获与封存/碳捕获与利用技术（CCS/CCUS),生物质能利用加CCS（BECCS）等负排放技术,这些都是地球工程范畴的碳移除技术（CDR),除此之外,更具争议性的太阳辐射管理（SRM）技术也引起更多关注。地球工程作为非常规技术选项,在1.5℃目标下的影响评估、技术选择、伦理学和国际治理等一系列问题的研究和探讨都十分必要。本文在分析和探讨上述问题的基础上,就中国应重视和加强地球工程研究与应对提出一些政策建议,指出要将地球工程纳入中国应对气候变化战略大框架,围绕1.5℃目标加强地球工程科学研究,并积极参与地球工程国际治理,合理发出中国声音。 相似文献
14.
In the first Kyoto commitment period Russia could be the major supplier for the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions market. Potential Russian supply depends on the ability of Russia to keep GHG emissions lower than the Kyoto target. In the literature there is no common understanding of the total trading potential of Russia at the international carbon market. In this paper we focus on CO2 emission, which constituted nearly 80%of Russian GHG emission. We compare different projections of Russian CO2emission and analyze the most important factors, which predetermine the CO2emission growth. In a transition economy these factors are: Gross Domestic Product(GDP) dynamic, changes of GDP structure, innovation activity, transformation of export-import flows and response to the market signals. The input-output macroeconomic model with the two different input-output tables representing old and new production technologies has been applied for the analysis to simulate technological innovations and structural changes in the Russian economy during transition period. The Russian supply at the international GHG market without forest sector may be up to 3 billion metric ton of CO2 equivalent. Earlier actions to reduce CO2 emission are critical to insure theRussiansupply at the international carbon market. With regard to the current status of the Russian capital market, the forward trading with OECD countries is only the possibility to raise initial investments to roll no-regret and low-cost GHG reduction. This paper discusses uncertainties of RussianCO2emission dynamics and analyzes the different incentives to lower the emission pathway. 相似文献
15.
RAE KWON CHUNG 《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):171-176
We can generate a net global GHG emission reduction from developing countries (in an UNFCCC term, non-Annex 1 Parties) without imposing targets on them, if we discount CERs generated from CDM projects. The CER discounting scheme means that a part or all of CDM credits, i.e., CERs, made by developing countries through unilateral CDM projects will be retired rather than sold to developed countries to increase their emissions. It is not feasible to impose certain forms of target (whether sectoral or intensity targets) on non-Annex 1 whose emission trend is hard to predict and whose industrial structure is undergoing a rapid change. Instead of imposing targets (a command and control approach), we should apply market instruments in generating a net global emission reduction from non-Annex 1. Since April 2005 when the first unilateral CDM was approved by the CDM Executive Board, CDM has been functioning as a market mechanism to provide incentives for developing countries to initiate their own emission reduction projects. As CDM is the only market mechanism engaging developing countries in the Kyoto Protocol, we should try to re-design CDM so that it can generate net global emission reductions by introducing the idea of discounting CERs. But in order to produce meaningful GHG emission reductions by discounting CERs, the project scope of CDM has to be expanded by relaxing project additionality criteria while maintaining strict technical additionality criteria. Agreeing on the CERs Discounting Scheme will have a better political chance than agreeing on imposing emission reduction targets on developing countries. 相似文献
16.
《Climate Policy》2001,1(3):363-380
With greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decreasing by more than 18% in the 1990s, Germany appears to be among the few industrialised countries which are on track to meet the targets they committed themselves to under the Kyoto Protocol. This achievement may appear less remarkable if one takes into account that Germany benefited from so-called “wall-fall profits”, i.e. the breakdown and restructuring of the East German economy after reunification in 1990. Nevertheless, various policies at national, regional, and local levels were introduced in the 1990s in Germany, which also resulted in a reduction of CO2 and other greenhouse gases.The objective of this paper is to examine the underlying factors for the GHG emission trends in Germany in the 1990s. In particular, it is estimated to what extent the observed reductions are wall-fall profits, and to what extent they are the result of policy measures.The findings indicate that wall-fall profits account for almost 50% of the reduction of all six greenhouse gases. This share increases to 60% if only energy-related CO2 emissions are considered. At the same time, a diverse set of policies also had a significant effect on the reduction of greenhouse gases. Environmental policies directed towards non-CO2 gases were as important as policies addressing CO2 emissions. Overall, the contribution of all the policies combined was slightly higher than the impact of unification. Although Germany is on a reduction path to meet the Kyoto target, the likelihood of it achieving the more ambitious national target without additional policy efforts appears rather slim. 相似文献
17.
"经济大国能源与气候论坛"在推动全球主要国家就应对气候变化主要议题达成一致方面取得了进展,已初步显示出其作为联合国气候谈判晴雨表的特征。该论坛的实质是主要发达国家为转移减排责任和压力,降低减排成本,绑架主要发展中国家在全球应对气候变化领域实施的集体强权政治。论坛的核心目标在于推动全球量化减排,目的是借全球量化减排,营造低碳和气候友好技术的广大市场,使得具有技术优势的这些经济大国拥有新的主导全球经济的力量。我国应坚持"共同但有区别的责任"原则,联合与会发展中国家强调气候变化的历史责任,反对为全球温室气体排放设限等不公平提议,团结广大发展中国家,同时抓住论坛力推低碳经济和低碳技术发展的机遇,使我国站在全球新一轮技术革命的前沿。 相似文献
18.
Energy system pathways which are projected to deliver minimum possible deployment cost, combined with low Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, are usually considered as ‘no-regrets’ options. However, the question remains whether such energy pathways present ‘no-regrets’ when also considering the wider environmental resource impacts, in particular those on land and water resources. This paper aims to determine whether the energy pathways of the UK’s Carbon Plan are environmental “no-regrets” options, defined in this study as simultaneously exhibiting low impact on land and water services resulting from resource appropriation for energy provision. This is accomplished by estimating the land area and water abstraction required by 2050 under the four pathways of the Carbon Plan with different scenarios for energy crop composition, yield, and power station locations. The outcomes are compared with defined limits for sustainable land appropriation and water abstraction.The results show that of the four Carbon Plan pathways, only the “Higher Renewables, more energy efficiency” pathway is an environmental “no-regrets” option, and that is only if deployment of power stations inland is limited. The study shows that policies for future low-carbon energy systems should be developed with awareness of wider environmental impacts. Failing to do this could lead to a setback in achieving GHG emission reductions goals, because of unforeseen additional competition between the energy sector and demand for land and water services in other sectors. 相似文献
19.
This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the links between dematerialisation and climate change mitigation. Methods used for material flow analyses (MFA) within the wider context of industrial ecology (which includes a focus on all resource flows in an economy, not purely material tonnage) tend to focus either on detoxification and pollution reduction or dematerialisation and resource productivity. An environmentally extended input–output (EEIO) model incorporates both aspects, which need to be dealt with when looking at how to meet challenging greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. The approach understands both production systems and consumption patterns and has the ability through scenarios to analyse the (GHG) effectiveness of a wide range of material efficiency options. This analysis adopts an environmentally extended input–output approach to assess the role of material efficiency measures in reducing UK GHG emissions by 2050. A method for projecting the variables and parameters in the model, including the supply of and demand for materials and products, is presented and applied to investigate thirteen material efficiency strategies in the UK. 相似文献
20.
This paper evaluated the impacts of climate change mitigation technology options on CO2 emission reductions and the effects of model representations regarding renewable intermittency on the assessment of reduction by using a world energy systems model. First, different diffusion scenarios for carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, and wind power and solar PV are selected from EMF27 scenarios to analyze their impacts on CO2 emission reductions. These technologies are important for reducing CO2 intensity of electricity, and the impacts of their diffusion levels on mitigation costs are significant, according to the analyses. Availability of CCS in particular, among the three kinds of technologies, has a large impact on the marginal CO2 abatement cost. In order to analyze effects of model representations regarding renewables intermittency, four different representations are assumed within the model. A simplistic model representation that does not take into consideration the intermittency of wind power and solar PV evaluates larger contributions of the energy sources than those evaluated by a model representation that takes intermittency into consideration. Appropriate consideration of renewables intermittency within global energy systems models will be important for realistic evaluations of climate change mitigation scenarios. 相似文献