共查询到18条相似文献，搜索用时 156 毫秒
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
兰州市呼吸道疾病与沙尘天气关系的分析 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
利用 1996～ 1998年春季兰州市某医院呼吸道门诊逐日病例资料和同期甘肃河西 19站沙尘暴、扬沙及兰州站浮尘逐日资料 ,对兰州市呼吸道疾病发病人数与沙尘天气的关系进行了分析。分析结果表明 ,两者之间呈显著的正相关 ,当甘肃河西发生沙尘暴、扬沙天气或兰州出现浮尘天气且无明显降水后的 1～ 2d ,兰州市呼吸道疾病呈现高发趋势。 相似文献
6.
7.
8.
北京急性脑血管疾病与气象要素的关系及预测 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
基于2006年1月至2010年12月北京市120急救中心的逐日脑血管急症接诊病例数据资料,首先探讨北京市急性脑血管疾病与气象要素的关系,选取不同季节的影响因子,然后根据概率积分方法将发病人数划分为4个级别,并采用人工神经元网络方法(artificial neural network,ANN)分别建立了北京市不同季节的急性脑血管疾病预测模型。研究结果表明:(1)急性脑血管疾病发病人数存在明显的季节性变化和日变化特征,冬春季发病人数高于夏、秋季,发病主要集中在早晨到中午的09—14时;(2)发病人数相对于气象要素存在明显的滞后效应,夏和冬秋季发病分别与高温高湿、冷空气活动有关;(3)脑血管疾病预测模型通过对新样本进行预报,除夏季外,完全准确率高于30%,预报误差≤±1级的准确率高于60%,研究成果对于预防急性脑血管疾病发病和调度120急救车辆等应急措施具有较好的科学参考价值。 相似文献
9.
10.
11.
基于2010—2019年江苏省两所具有区域代表性的医院较为完整的10 a常见疾病住院病例数据、区域同期气象资料,从不同时间尺度分析了气象要素与疾病发病的可能关系,探讨了气象条件和气候变化背景下主要疾病病例数的变化特征。结果表明:儿科肺炎、慢性阻塞性肺病等呼吸系统疾病具有明显的季节变化特征,其对气温等气象要素有较强的敏感性,而寒潮等天气过程对此类疾病有诱发作用。作为年际气候变化关键信号的ENSO模态,可以通过调节不同地区的天气频率,间接对疾病发生产生影响。根据天气变化与疾病发病机理的关系和气候模式模拟预估的未来气候变化情景,到本世纪末的气候背景可能有利于减少肺炎和慢性阻塞性肺病的发病率,但也需注意天气尺度气温变率加剧造成相关疾病的多发。 相似文献
12.
13.
Two cases of on-ice and off-ice air flow characterizing the opposite weather situations over the ice-edge zone in the northern Baltic Sea are analysed on the basis of aircraft observations, and modelled using atwo-dimensional mesoscale model. The stable boundary layer (SBL) during theon-ice flow exhibited little thermal modification, but a low-level jet (LLJ) was generated at the 250-m high top of the SBL. In the model, the LLJ was associated with inertial oscillations in space, while the baroclinicity explained the shape of the wind profile well above the SBL. Although the observed LLJ was most pronounced over the ice, the modelling suggests that it was not generated by the ice edge but by the coastline some 400 km upwind of the ice edge, where a much more drastic change in the thermal stratification and surface roughness took place. The generation, maintenance, and strength of the LLJ were very sensitive to the parameterization of turbulent mixing in the SBL. In the case of the off-ice flow, the modification of the air mass and the development of a convective boundary layer (CBL) both over the ice and open sea were reasonably well modelled. Sensitivity runs suggested that it was essential to take into account the effects of subgrid-scale leads, a forest in the archipelago (which was crossed by the air flow), and water vapour condensationinto ice crystals. The heat flux from leads was particularly important for the heatbudget of the CBL, and the observed growth of the CBL was partly due to theeffective mixing over the rough and relatively warm forest. 相似文献
14.
根据有关法律、法规,阐述了气球施放安全与风险评估的必要性,并结合工作实际,介绍气球施放安全与风险评估应包括的主要内容和具体的操作流程。研究结果认为,适当而足够的风险评估方法应包括6个方面的内容：一是识别所有的危险源;二是评估事故出现的机会和几率;三是对事故可能引发的后果进行分析、分级;四是判断风险是否可以被容忍,辨别事关重大的风险;五是如果风险或潜在后果不可以被容忍的话,辨别出必须做些什么,如何落实防范风险措施;六是为制定在一段相当的时期内保持有效的控制方法提供依据,对不能通过控制活动降低事故发生几率的,依法对气球施放申请作出不批准的决定。 相似文献
15.
全球区域同化预报系统的使用及其数值模拟 总被引：7，自引：3，他引：4
介绍了中国气象科学研究院数值预报中心自主开发的GRAPESV2.1数值模式运行步骤,并利用该模式对2005年5月1日06～07时在江西南昌市区出现的30mm/h强降水过程,进行了数值模拟和诊断分析。结果发现,北方干冷空气南下,到达30°N附近后,与南方暖湿空气在南昌市区上空低层形成交汇,促使暖湿空气沿着锋面迅速抬升凝结,触发不稳定能量的释放,是造成南昌强降水产生的主要原因;GRAPES模式能很好地模拟出高低空环流形势场特征和主要天气系统,能提供较准确的高分辨率诊断分析资料。 相似文献
16.
In this study, turbulent heat flux data from two sites within the Baltic Sea are compared with estimates from two models. The main focus is on the latent heat flux. The measuring sites are located on small islands close to the islands of Bornholm and Gotland. Both sites have a wide wind direction sector with undisturbed over-water fetch. Mean parameters and direct fluxes were measured on masts during May to December 1998.The two models used in this study are the regional-scale atmospheric model HIRLAM and the ocean model PROBE-Baltic. It is shown that both models overestimate the sensible and latent heat fluxes. The overestimation can, to a large extent, be explained by errors in the air-water temperature and humidity differences. From comparing observed and modelled data, the estimated 8-month mean errors in temperature and humidity are up to 1 °C and 1 g kg-1, respectively. The mean errors in the sensible and latent heat fluxes for the same period are approximately 15 and 30 W m-2, respectively.Bulk transfer coefficients used for calculating heat and humidity fluxes at the surface were shown to agree rather well with the measurements, at least for the unstable data. For stable stratification, the scatter in data is generally large, and it appears that the bulk formulation chosen overestimates turbulent heat fluxes. 相似文献
17.
介绍了“全省领导干部减灾管理研讨班”的基本概况,并就今后一段时期的综合减灾工作提出了具体建议。讲话认为,要认真贯彻、落实省政府吴新雄常务副省长、省政协倪国熙副主席在减灾管理研讨班上的讲话精神,编制好减灾综合规划,组织开展自然灾害总结、预测会商与科研工作,加强防灾减灾知识的普及宣传教育工作,加强灾害信息收集、汇总工作,逐步实现资源信息共享;各级减灾委要不断加强自身能力建设,积极组织开展省外、境外、国外减灾考察活动,不断拓宽减灾领导、专家的视野。使江西综合成灾工作逐步与国际接轨,从而为建设和谐平安江西做出积极的贡献。 相似文献