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针对城市应急需求,建立了突发公共事件应急气象数值模拟系统。该系统主要包含两个模型：①以中尺度数值模式MM5和区域大气模拟系统RAMS 60为核心的快速污染扩散数值预报模型,该模型具有精细准确、可预测性的优点,应急人员在接到命令后15 min内可完成事发后1 h的气体扩散应急产品的制作;②以街区模式和高斯模式为核心的快速应急气象服务软件,它具有操作简洁、安装方便、产品输出快速直观的优点,能够在2～3 min内完成事发地点应急产品制作。通过一年的日常城市应急演习及奥运会、残奥会的应用证明,该服务系统较好的满足了应急指挥时效性、服务性的需求,为北京城市应急指挥人员现场处置提供即时科学依据。 相似文献
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大气环境数值模拟研究新进展 总被引：14，自引：1，他引：13
近五年来,中国科学院大气物理研究所(简称大气所)在大气环境数值模拟方面取得了丰硕的成果,通过自主发展和引进,建立了完备的多尺度、多成分的大气环境数值模式,包括全球大气化学输送模式、区域和城市空气质量预报模式。大气所利用这些模式研究各种空间尺度上污染物浓度时空分布以及污染物的输送和演变,研究了多种污染过程的成因和污染变化规律,在污染物输送、低对流层臭氧高污染、区域及城市污染等方面取得了很多成果,并对区域或城市空气质量进行业务化实时预报。大气所还拓展了我国大气环境模拟研究的新领域:大气化学资料同化、污染模式集合预报、污染源反演新方法。初步建立了空气质量模式的资料同化系统(分别基于最优插值技术和集合卡曼滤波技术)和多模式集合预报体系,提高了模式预报水平;在污染源反演新方法方面进行了初步的探索。结合我国目前仍然面临着的大气环境问题,对今后大气环境数值模式的发展方向进行了展望。 相似文献
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城市小区规划对大气环境影响的评估研究 总被引：5，自引：3，他引：5
不同城市小区规划方案对大气环境的影响不同。本文在已建城市小区尺度气象和污染扩散模式的基础上,针对城市小区规划对气象及大气环境的影响,提出了一套以人为本的客观、科学、可操作的影响评估指标及方法,并以北京市某小区两种规划方案为例,具体评估了它们对气象及大气环境的不同影响。结果表明:由于第二种规划方案在小区中部有一条较宽的东西向道路,并且道路中绿化较多,这条道路是气流东西向流动的重要通道,道路附近风速较大、气温较低、污染较轻,并且对整个小区的气象和大气环境都有改善。由此可见,基于城市小区尺度模式,对城市小区规划对大气环境的影响进行评估是必要和可行的。本文提出的人体舒适度、行人舒适度、地面污染物浓度、最高建筑高度以下污染物浓度、建筑物表面污染物浓度及扩散能力等六项评估指标,并分别给予该6种指标的权重系数为0.2,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1及0.4,然后再加权平均的评估方法是合理可行的。 相似文献
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MESIS (气象服务信息系统) 是国家气象中心及各个省级气象部门用于制作气象服务材料的新一代业务服务系统,该系统运用了GIS、数据库、可视化、多媒体和Web等综合技术实现了决策气象服务产品的共享体系、服务产品的显示与综合集成、统计分析检索、制作、分发,以及重大气象灾害辅助决策支持与气象应急服务等功能。该文重点对MESIS中气象信息检索平台的架构体系、功能设计、GIS应用等关键技术进行了探讨,介绍了MESIS中气象信息检索及可视化产品制作平台的设计和实现。 相似文献
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为了提高农业干旱的监测预测服务能力,减少农业干旱对社会生产生活的影响,通过对干旱信息的采集、存储、加工处理和干旱产品的制作发布等环节进行梳理与完善,构建辽宁省农业干旱监测预报业务系统,实现了对农业干旱的一体化、精细化和定量化监测和预测,实现了干旱产品的标准化、自动化制作和发布。该系统依托农业干旱监测技术、遥感干旱监测技术、农业干旱预报技术等手段,实现了观测数据的收集存储、干旱信息的展示分析和干旱产品的制作发布等功能,并形成了省、市、县一体化干旱服务体系。最终实现对干旱的全方位监测、立体化服务模式,从而提高应对干旱灾害的防灾减灾能力。该系统的业务化应用提高了农业干旱监测预测的定量化、自动化和智能化水平,提升了地面和卫星遥感干旱监测预测的业务能力。该系统构建的省市县一体化服务模式,形成了省级农业气象业务中心统一制作干旱产品,省、市、县3级同时开展精细化干旱指导服务的体系。 相似文献
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为准确预报臭氧浓度等级,基于EC_THIN全球天气模式产品和我国自主研发的CMA_GFS全球天气数值预报产品以及华南GRACEs大气成分模式输出产品,融合气象和环境观测数据,使用6种机器学习智能算法,构建耦合数值预报模式和机器学习的混合模型,旨在充分发挥数值预报与机器学习智能算法的优势和互补协同作用,实现臭氧浓度等级预报准确度的跨越式提升。共设置4个控制试验,选取不同的特征产品,依次使用机器学习经典分类算法对长沙市未来4天的臭氧浓度等级进行分类预报,取测试准确度最高的模型输出结果作为结果统计。发现：最优模型1～4天的测试准确度分别为81.7%、81.7%、78.3%、60.9%,大大高于大气成分模式预报和预报员经验,达到预期设计目标;高质量的天气模式产品对模型贡献大,而大气成分模式产品对模型贡献有限;模型3天以内预测性能较好,低等级预测性能较好,高等级预测性能一般。提出解决方案供讨论：增加高等级样本数量,增强模型对此类事件的识别能力;加强高等级臭氧污染的机理分析,组合出更精炼的因子供模型使用。 相似文献
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宁夏精细化预报产品显示与评价业务系统 总被引：8，自引：3，他引：8
介绍了一个建立在微机平台上的宁夏精细化预报产品显示与评价业务系统。该系统从宁夏气象骨干网获取宁夏本地精细化预报产品、本地有限区中尺度数值预报产品及天气实况资料，通过不同方式进行显示输出，并对预报产品进行多种客观评价。该系统为宁夏气象台发布精细化天气预报提供了技术支持。 相似文献
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极轨气象卫星大气垂直探测（ＴＯＶＳ）资料微机处理系统可实时接收处理ＴＯＶＳ／ＨＲＰＴ资料，生成空间分辨率约７５（或５０）ｋｍ的大气温度和湿度廓线、位势高度、热成风、大气中水汽总含量、射出长波辐射（ＯＬＲ）、臭氧总含量等大气参数以及ＴＯＶＳ水汽图象等产品。其中，大气温度的平均相对误差为２．５Ｋ，大气湿度的平均相对误差为２５％。由于气象卫星覆盖范围广，观测频次多，因此，ＴＯＶＳ产品可弥补海洋、高原、沙漠等地区常规探测资料之不足。 相似文献
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Summary HIRES is a high resolution mesoscale atmospheric modelling system to which has recently been added an atmospheric pollutant
dispersion and chemical reaction module. This module, referred to as AIRCHEM, has a set of transport (advection), diffusion,
deposition and chemical reaction components. The coupled HIRES-AIRCHEM system can be applied to local intra-regional problems,
as well as to inter-regional and long-range air quality problems. The AIRCHEM component is in a relatively early stage of
development and as yet has only a simple chemical scheme comprising 10 chemical species.
In this study the coupled HIRES-AIRCHEM system is tested on three distinct problems. The first problem is an ozone event over
the Sydney, New South Wales (NSW) basin. This is an intra-regional example in which the NSW Environment Protection Authority’s
ozone concentration health limit of 10 pphm was attained or exceeded over a large section of the Sydney basin. The second
case is an inter-regional one in which smoke from a prescribed burn ignited well to the north of Sydney was transported over
the Sydney basin. A regional pollution index (RPI) was recorded that was more than four times the NSW Environmental Protection
Authority (EPA) health limit. Finally, the third case presented here is one of long range transport of smoke particulates
over southeast Asia, from the massive fires that occurred during the 1997/1998 El Ni?o episode.
The results obtained from these three very distinct cases were sufficiently encouraging to suggest that the coupled HIRES-AIRCHEM
system should prove to be a powerful tool in assisting environmental management and emergency policy in the air quality arena.
Received October 17, 2001 Revised December 28, 2001 相似文献
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Short-duration fluctuations in the concentration of airborne substances can be important in a variety of atmospheric dispersion
problems, especially when assessing the risks posed by harmful materials. This paper discusses a simulation technique for
generating individual realisations of fluctuating concentration time series in dispersing plumes based on target probability
distributions and spectral functions. The scheme uses a correlation-distortion approach to simulate these time series. Gaussian
processes with modified spectral characteristics are generated and then transformed to yield non-Gaussian processes with the
desired spectral characteristics. The simulation scheme is initially developed for a single receptor, and is then extended
to model pairs of correlated time series at two receptors. In fact, the modelling technique can be generalised to an arbitrary
number of receptors and this provides, in principal, an approach that is applicable to a wide class of similar problems (such
as the modelling of instantaneous puff releases or the response of line-of-sight detection systems). The simulation technique
is illustrated using observations made during recent field experiments, conducted both in the United Kingdom and in the U.S.A.,
investigating the short-range dispersion of a passive tracer. 相似文献
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在对合肥地区污染源调查的基础上,利用CALPUFF模型模拟了合肥地区大气污染物SO2质量浓度场,通过与现场监测结果对比分析了模型的适用性,并根据模拟结果研究了不同排放源对合肥地区大气污染的贡献情况,建立了大气污染物传递矩阵;通过综合考虑城市区域的大气扩散能力、污染源贡献和大气环境质量目标等,采用线性规划模型测算了合肥市的大气环境容量. 相似文献
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Glen R. Harris David M. H. Sexton Ben B. B. Booth Mat Collins James M. Murphy 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(11-12):2937-2972
This paper describes a Bayesian methodology for prediction of multivariate probability distribution functions (PDFs) for transient regional climate change. The approach is based upon PDFs for the equilibrium response to doubled carbon dioxide, derived from a comprehensive sampling of uncertainties in modelling of surface and atmospheric processes, and constrained by multiannual mean observations of recent climate. These PDFs are sampled and scaled by global mean temperature predicted by a Simple Climate Model (SCM), in order to emulate corresponding transient responses. The sampled projections are then reweighted, based upon the likelihood that they correctly replicate observed historical changes in surface temperature, and combined to provide PDFs for 20 year averages of regional temperature and precipitation changes to the end of the twenty-first century, for the A1B emissions scenario. The PDFs also account for modelling uncertainties associated with aerosol forcing, ocean heat uptake and the terrestrial carbon cycle, sampled using SCM configurations calibrated to the response of perturbed physics ensembles generated using the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3, and other international climate model simulations. Weighting the projections using observational metrics of recent mean climate is found to be as effective at constraining the future transient response as metrics based on historical trends. The spread in global temperature response due to modelling uncertainty in the carbon cycle feedbacks is determined to be about 65–80 % of the spread arising from uncertainties in modelling atmospheric, oceanic and aerosol processes of the climate system. Early twenty-first century aerosol forcing is found to be extremely unlikely to be less than ?1.7 W m?2. Our technique provides a rigorous and formal method of combining several lines of evidence used in the previous IPCC expert assessment of the Transient Climate Response. The 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of our observationally constrained PDF for the Transient Climate Response are 1.6, 2.0 and 2.4 °C respectively, compared with the 10–90 % range of 1.0–3.0 °C assessed by the IPCC. 相似文献
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Frequency distributions of transient regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles of general circulation model simulations 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
G. R. Harris D. M. H. Sexton B. B. B. Booth M. Collins J. M. Murphy M. J. Webb 《Climate Dynamics》2006,27(4):357-375
Large ensembles of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations are required to explore modelling uncertainty and make probabilistic predictions of future transient climate change at regional scales. These are not yet computationally feasible so we have developed a technique to emulate the response of such an ensemble by scaling equilibrium patterns of climate change derived from much cheaper “slab” model ensembles in which the atmospheric component of an AOGCM is coupled to a mixed-layer ocean. Climate feedback parameters are diagnosed for each member of a slab model ensemble and used to drive an energy balance model (EBM) to predict the time-dependent response of global surface temperature expected for different combinations of uncertain AOGCM parameters affecting atmospheric, land and sea-ice processes. The EBM projections are then used to scale normalised patterns of change derived for each slab member, and hence emulate the response of the relevant atmospheric model version when coupled to a dynamic ocean, in response to a 1% per annum increase in CO2. The emulated responses are validated by comparison with predictions from a 17 member ensemble of AOGCM simulations, constructed from variants of HadCM3 using the same parameter combinations as 17 members of the slab model ensemble. Cross-validation permits estimation of the spatial and temporal dependence of emulation error, and also allows estimation of a correction field to correct discrepancies between the scaled equilibrium patterns and the transient response, reducing the emulation error. Emulated transient responses and their associated errors are obtained from the slab ensemble for 129 pseudo-HadCM3 versions containing multiple atmospheric parameter perturbations. These are combined to produce regional frequency distributions for the transient response of annual surface temperature change and boreal winter precipitation change. The technique can be extended to any surface climate variable demonstrating a scaleable, approximately linear response to forcing. 相似文献
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基于移动互联网的交通气象服务系统设计与应用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
设计并实现了基于移动互联网的交通气象服务系统。通过对用户定位信息与天气现象、能见度、温度、降水、风力等精细化格点数据进行融合,提供了一系列基于位置的创新性交通气象服务:道路前方高影响天气路段语音提醒及气象信息自动化语言表达、基于WebGIS服务的交通气象服务信息展示和基于精细化格点预报数据的智能导航。与传统网页单向式的信息交互方式不同,交通气象服务系统绝大部分数据存储及处理工作在服务端完成,通过Web服务实现了与客户端的双向信息传递,向用户提供精准的基于位置的信息推送。本系统已经在浙江省气象局智慧气象手机客户端中作为一个独立模块实际应用。 相似文献