共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 152 毫秒
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Acero Francisco Javier Fernández-Fernández María Isabel Carrasco Víctor Manuel Sánchez Parey Sylvie Hoang Thi Thu Huong Dacunha-Castelle Didier García José Agustín 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,133(1-2):605-617
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Heat wave (HW) events are becoming more frequent, and they have important consequences because of the negative effects they can have not only on the human... 相似文献
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Kirsten Hastrup 《Climatic change》2018,151(1):67-78
This article presents a small community of High Arctic hunters (the Inughuit in North West Greenland) who have always had to negotiate climatic changes with great impact on their living conditions. This points us toward the natural-social entanglements implied in the notion of the Anthropocene, and to the new intellectual challenges that both natural and social scientists are facing in relation to the current climatic changes. These challenges are discussed through the case of the Inughuit with whom the author has worked over many years. Departing from their dire situation in the 19th century, when they were first described and became known to outsiders, it is shown how flexibility and mobility were always preconditions for survival in this environment. Then, they were trapped in too much ice, while now they have to negotiate a rapidly melting environment. In both cases their response is deeply implicated in their sense of who they were and are, also in relation to a larger world. 相似文献
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Charles W. Stockton 《Climatic change》1990,16(2):173-183
Climatic variations in the range of 10 to 100 years duration are perhaps of greatest consequence to mankind because; (1) they have a tendency to be regional in nature, (2) they affect third-world countries as well as more developed countries, and (3) they prevail over the planning horizons used in water resources, agriculture and many other disciplines. Documentation of the range of variability experienced regionally for various regions in the western United States as well as North Africa are examined. The recent high water-levels of the Great Salt Lake and other lakes in the Western United States and the prolonged recent drought in North Africa are examples discussed in detail. 相似文献
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A. Maria del Rosario Prieto B. Ricardo García-Herrera Emiliano Hernández Martin 《Climatic change》2004,66(1-2):29-48
The use of documentary sources has proven useful to identify extremeclimatic events and their variability during the pre-instrumental period. Theaim of this paper is to describe iceberg sightings in the Western SouthAtlantic during the second half of the 18th century, as recorded from Spanishlogbooks. A total of five sightings have been found, two corresponding toisolated bergs and three to outbreaks. The relevance of these results istwofold: they are the first documented iceberg sightings to date and, aboveall, they correspond to very unusual episodes, characterized by a high numberof high-sized bergs and by the relatively low latitude of their location. Itis suggested that they could be associated to cold episodes in Antarctica. 相似文献
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The structure of free convection in an atmospheric surface layer is modelled as a field of plumes rising from the ground. The plumes occupy nearly one-half of the total fluid volume and they coalesce slowly as they rise. The model behaviour is consistent with the results obtained commonly by dimensional analysis under the assumption that the friction velocity is an irrelevant parameter in an unstable constant-flux layer. 相似文献
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两个相似路径台风天气差异分析 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
本文通过9417号和9711号两个相似路径台风的对比分析,从环境流场、动力条件等方面初步总结了造成天气有明显差异的成因,由此提了对登陆北上型台风在预报天气时需要综合考虑的几个问题。 相似文献
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This article discusses how people often neglect the financial costs associated with driving. As a consequence they take trips that are contrary to their own self-interest and cause unnecessary harm to the environment through carbon emissions. Two empirical studies demonstrate that when people do explicitly consider financial costs they are inclined to drive less. The article concludes by offering several solutions to help people learn and account for their driving costs. 相似文献
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Stochastic weather generators are statistical models that produce random numbers that resemble the observed weather data on which they have been fitted; they are widely used in meteorological and hydrologi- cal simulations. For modeling daily precipitation in weather generators, first-order Markov chain-dependent exponential, gamma, mixed-exponential, and lognormal distributions can be used. To examine the perfor- mance of these four distributions for precipitation simulation, they were fitted to observed data collected at 10 stations in the watershed of Yishu River. The parameters of these models were estimated using a maximum-likelihood technique performed using genetic algorithms. Parameters for each calendar month and the Fourier series describing parameters for the whole year were estimated separately. Bayesian infor- mation criterion, simulated monthly mean, maximum daily value, and variance were tested and compared to evaluate the fitness and performance of these models. The results indicate that the lognormal and mixed-exponential distributions give smaller BICs, but their stochastic simulations have overestimation and underestimation respectively, while the gamma and exponential distributions give larger BICs, but their stochastic simulations produced monthly mean precipitation very well. When these distributions were fitted using Fourier series, they all underestimated the above statistics for the months of June, July and August. 相似文献
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A commentary on the recent CO2-climate controversy 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Suggestions have persisted over the past few years that, contary to conventional estimates, increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide will produce negligible warming of the earth's surface, or might even result in surface cooling. In the present paper we reexamine several aspects of these suggestions and illustrate that they are either founded in various violations of the first law of thermodynamics, or that they are based upon misinterpretations of historical data. 相似文献
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An equatorial β-plane model which includes realistic non-uniform land-sea contrast and the underlying surface temperature distribution is used to simulate the 30-60 day oscillation (LFO) processes in tropical atmosphere, with emphasis on its longitude-dependent evolution and convective seesaw between Indian and the western Pacific oceans.The model simulated the twice-amplification of the disturbances over Indian and the western Pacific oceans while they are travelling eastward. It reproduced the dipole structure caused by the out-of-phase oscillation of the active centres in these two areas and the periodical transition between the phases of LFO. It is suggested that the convective seesaw is the result of interaction of the internal dynamics of tropical atmosphere with the zonally non-uniform thermal forcing from underlying surface. The convective activities are suppressed over Indonesia mari-time continents whilst they are favoured over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific warm waters, so there formed two active oscillation centres. The feedback of convection with large-scale flow slows down the propagation of disturb-ances when they are intensifying over these two areas, therefore they manifest a kind of quasi-stationary component to favor the ‘dipole’ structure. Whereas the disturbances weaken and speed up over the eastern Pacific cold water re-gion due to the interaction of sensible heating and evaporation with perturbational wind. Therefore the two major centers just show out-of-phase oscillation during onecycle around the latitudinal beltBy introducing the SST anomalies in El Ni?o and La Ni?a years into the surface temperature, we also show that they have significant influence on LFO processes. In an anomalously warm year, the LFO disturbances dissipate more slowly over the central-eastern Pacific region and can travel farther eastward; whilst in an anomalously cold year, the opposite is true. 相似文献
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空气污染与气候变化 总被引：24，自引：1，他引：23
近50年来,全球气候变化主要由大气温室气体浓度的日益增加引起,而空气污染主要由悬浮于空气中的大气气溶胶粒子造成,它们都主要由矿物燃料的燃烧排放形成.近年的研究表明,大气气溶胶粒子也具有气候效应:一是通过散射和吸收太阳光,减少到达地面的太阳辐射而具有降冷作用,可抵消一部分由温室气体造成的变暖作用;二是可以作为云中凝结核改变云微物理过程和降水性质,改变大气的水循环.大气气溶胶对于经济社会的许多方面,如农业、水资源、人体健康、城市化等也表现出重要的影响.由于空气污染和气候变化在很大程度上有共同的原因,即主要都是由矿物燃料燃烧的排放造成,因而减轻和控制空气污染与减少温室气体排放保护气候在行动上应是一致的.为了从经济上得到最大的节约和获得双赢的效果,应该采取协同应对空气污染和气候变化的减排战略,即应该采取统一的而不是分离的科学研究和应对战略. 相似文献
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Steve Rayner Clare Heyward Tim Kruger Nick Pidgeon Catherine Redgwell Julian Savulescu 《Climatic change》2013,121(3):499-512
Scientific momentum is increasing behind efforts to develop geoengineering options, but it is widely acknowledged that the challenges of geoengineering are as much political and social as they are technical. Legislators are looking for guidance on the governance of geoengineering research and possible deployment. The Oxford Principles are five high-level principles for geoengineering governance. This article explains their intended function and the core societal values which they attempt to capture. Finally, it proposes a framework for their implementation in a flexible governance architecture through the formulation of technology-specific research protocols. 相似文献
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There is currently a huge gulf between natural scientists’ understanding of climate tipping points and economists’ representations of climate catastrophes in integrated assessment models (IAMs). In particular, there are multiple potential tipping points and they are not all low-probability events; at least one has a significant probability of being passed this century under mid-range (2–4 °C) global warming, and they cannot all be ruled out at low (<2 °C) warming. In contrast, the dominant framing of climate catastrophes in IAMs, and in critiques of them, is that they are associated with high (> 4 °C) or very high (> 8 °C) global warming. This discrepancy could qualitatively alter the predictions of IAMs, including estimates of the social cost of carbon. To address this discrepancy and assess the economic impact of crossing different climate tipping points, we highlight a list of scientific points that should be considered, at least in a stylised form, in simplified IAMs. For nine different tipping events, the range of expected physical climate impacts is summarised and some suggestions are made for how they may translate into socio-economic impacts on particular sectors or regions. We also consider how passing climate tipping points could affect economic growth. 相似文献
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气溶胶可以多种途径改变云特征来影响气候。作为凝结核,气溶胶可以增加暖云的云滴数和寿命,间接影响辐射和降水,即为气溶胶的第一间接效应和第二间接效应。观测(包括地面和卫星)和数值模拟是研究间接效应最主要的两种手段,目前这两种方法大多同时采用。本文介绍了气溶胶间接效应的原理及研究方法,并回顾国内一些研究和成果。 相似文献