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Acero Francisco Javier Fernández-Fernández María Isabel Carrasco Víctor Manuel Sánchez Parey Sylvie Hoang Thi Thu Huong Dacunha-Castelle Didier García José Agustín 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,133(1-2):605-617
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Heat wave (HW) events are becoming more frequent, and they have important consequences because of the negative effects they can have not only on the human... 相似文献
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S. Parey 《Climate Dynamics》2008,30(1):99-112
Power plant construction requires anticipation to achieve a liable dimensioning on the long functioning time of the installation.
In the present climate change context, dimensioning towards extremely high temperature for installations intended to run until
the 2070s or later implies an evaluation of plausible extreme values at this time scale. This study is devoted to such an
estimation for France, using both observation series and climate model simulation results. The climate model results are taken
from the European PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks
and Effects) project database of regional climate change scenarios for Europe. Comparison of high summer temperature distributions
given by observations and climate models under current climate conditions, conducted using Generalized Extreme Value distribution,
reveals that only a few models are able to correctly reproduce it. For these models, climate change under IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios
leads to differences in the variability of high values, whose proportion has an important impact on future 100-year return
levels.
This study was first presented at the EGU General Assembly in Vienna, 2–7 April 2006. 相似文献
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In this paper, we examine the trends of temperature series in Europe, for the mean as well as for the variance in hot and cold seasons. To do so, we use as long and homogenous series as possible, provided by the European Climate Assessment and Dataset project for different locations in Europe, as well as the European ENSEMBLES project gridded dataset and the ERA40 reanalysis. We provide a definition of trends that we keep as intrinsic as possible and apply non-parametric statistical methods to analyse them. Obtained results show a clear link between trends in mean and variance of the whole series of hot or cold temperatures: in general, variance increases when the absolute value of temperature increases, i.e. with increasing summer temperature and decreasing winter temperature. This link is reinforced in locations where winter and summer climate has more variability. In very cold or very warm climates, the variability is lower and the link between the trends is weaker. We performed the same analysis on outputs of six climate models proposed by European teams for the 1961–2000 period (1950–2000 for one model), available through the PCMDI portal for the IPCC fourth assessment climate model simulations. The models generally perform poorly and have difficulties in capturing the relation between the two trends, especially in summer. 相似文献
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Francisco Javier Acero Sylvie Parey Thi Thu Huong Hoang Didier Dacunha-Castelle José Agustín García María Cruz Gallego 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(9):1394-1411
Based on a previous study for temperature, a new method for the calculation of non-stationary return levels for extreme rainfall is described and applied to Extremadura, a region of southwestern Spain, using the peaks-over-threshold approach. Both all-days and rainy-days-only datasets were considered and the 20-year return levels expected in 2020 were estimated taking different trends into account: first, for all days, considering a time-dependent threshold and the trend in the scale parameter of the generalized Pareto distribution; and second, for rainy days only, considering how the mean, variance, and number of rainy days evolve. Generally, the changes in mean, variance and number of rainy days can explain the observed trends in extremes, and their extrapolation gives more robust estimations. The results point to a decrease of future return levels in 2020 for spring and winter, but an increase for autumn. 相似文献
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Trends and climate evolution: Statistical approach for very high temperatures in France 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Sylvie Parey Farida Malek Carine Laurent Didier Dacunha-Castelle 《Climatic change》2007,81(3-4):331-352
The existence of an increasing trend in average temperatures during the last 50 years is widely acknowledged. Furthermore, there is compelling evidence of the variability of extremes, and rapid strides are made in studies of these events. Indeed, by extending the results of the “extreme value theory” (EVT) to the non-stationary case, analyses can examine the presence of trends in extreme values of stochastic processes. Definition of extreme events, their statistical significance as well as their interpretations have to be handled with great care when used for environmental concerns and public safety. Thus, we will discuss the validity of the hypothesis allowing the use of mathematical theories for these problems. To answer safety requirements, respect installation norms and reduce public risk, return levels are a major operational goal, obtained with the EVT. In this paper, we give quantitative results for observations of high temperatures over the 1950–2003 period in 47 stations in France. We examined the validity of the non-stationary EVT and introduced the notion of return levels (RL) in a time-varying context. Our analysis puts particular accent on the difference between methods used to describe extremes, to perform advanced fits and tests (climatic science), and those estimating the probability of rare future events (security problems in an evolving climate). After enouncing the method used for trend identification of extremes in term of easily interpretable parameters of distribution laws, we apply the procedure to long series of temperature measurements and check the influence of data length on trend estimation. We also address the problem of choosing the part of observations allowing appropriate extrapolation. In our analysis, we determined the influence of the 2003 heat wave on trend and return-level estimation comparing it to the RL in a stationary context. The application of the procedure to 47 stations spread over France is a first step for a refined spatial analysis. Working on the behavior of distribution parameters while assessing trend identification is a primary tool in order to classify climatic change with respect to the location of the station and open a systematic work using the same methodology for other variables and multivariate studies. 相似文献
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