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1.
海气耦合气候模式对大气中水汽输送、辐散辐合与海气间水通量交换的模拟 总被引：6，自引：6，他引：0
基于ECMWF再分析结果对LASG第三代全球海洋-大气-陆地耦合系统模式(GOALS)的两个版本和第四代耦合气候模式初始版(FGCM-0)所模拟的大气水汽输送与辐散辐合特征、海气间水通量交换,进行了评估分析.结果表明:(1)对垂直积分的水汽通量场的流函数及其对应的无辐散水汽通量矢量的模拟,三个耦合模式都能够较为合理地再现副热带大洋的涡旋结构、中纬度西风带的东向水汽输送、赤道东风带的西向水汽输送和东亚夏季风水汽输送等行星尺度特征及其季节变化,只是GOALS的涡旋位置、FGCM-0的涡旋中心强度,较之实际略有偏差.(2)反映在垂直积分的水汽通量场的势函数和对应的无旋水汽矢量上,对南北半球副热带大洋水汽辐散区、热带辐合带(ITCZ)、东亚夏季风区强烈的水汽辐合特征等的模拟,FGCM-0的结果相对合理.GOALS的热带辐合中心过于集中在印度尼西亚群岛附近,东亚夏季风水汽辐合中心偏南.(3)关于海气水通量交换,FGCM-0较为理想地再现了副热带的净蒸发、ITCZ和中高纬度的净降水特征以及夏季ITCZ的季节性北移,但对南太平洋辐合带(SPCZ)、副热带南大西洋的净蒸发特点,以及阿拉伯海和盂加拉湾季节变化的差异,模拟结果不理想.FGCM-0在模拟SPCZ上的偏差,是由海气耦合过程造成的.GOALS未能合理再现ITCZ和SPCZ降水大于蒸发的特点,其净降水集中在西太平洋暖池区;但对副热带南大西洋、北印度洋水通量季节变化的模拟相对合理. 相似文献
2.
利用1979—2017年TropFlux海气热通量资料、ERA5再分析资料及HadISST资料,分析了冬季北大西洋涛动（North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO）与同期热带印度洋海气热通量的关系。结果表明,NAO指数与热带印度洋海气净热通量整体上呈负相关,意味着NAO为正位相时,海洋向大气输送热量,其显著区域主要位于热带西印度洋（50°～70°E,10°S～10°N）。净热通量的变化主要依赖于潜热通量和短波辐射的变化;潜热通量和短波辐射在NAO正（负）位相事件期间的贡献率分别为72.96％和61.48％（71.72％和57.06％）。NAO可通过Rossby波列影响印度洋地区局地大气环流,进而影响海气热通量;当NAO为正位相时,波列沿中低纬路径传播至印度洋地区,在阿拉伯海北部对流层高层触发异常反气旋环流。该异常反气旋性环流加强了阿拉伯高压,使得北印度洋偏北风及越赤道气流加强。伴随风速的加强,海面蒸发增强,同时加强的越赤道气流导致热带辐合带强度偏强,深对流加强引起对流层水汽和云量增多,进而引起海表下行短波辐射减少。 相似文献
3.
北大西洋年际变率的海气耦合模式模拟Ⅰ：局地海气相互作用 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
检验了一个全球海气耦合模式对北大西洋年际气候变率的模拟,讨论了导致这种年际变率型的物理机制,并分析了其对年代际变率的可能影响。北大西洋冬季SST的主导变率模态,在经向上表现为三核型,自北而南出现“- -”的带状距平型;最大距平中心位于副极地大洋、中纬度大洋的西部以及热带海域,耦合模式较为真实地再现了这一特征。与三核型SST异常相对应的大气环流型表现为北大西洋涛动,具有显著的正压结构。上述异常型主要发生在年际尺度,具有3—4年的谱峰;在次年代际尺度上,也存在谱峰。分析表明,模式中三核型SST异常的产生,主要来自大气的强迫,NAO增强,中纬度大洋上的西风减弱,海洋感热和潜热通量损失减少,中纬度大洋得到的净热通量增加,导致SST出现正距平;在包括Labrador海在内的副极地大洋,NAO增强、冰岛低压加深,气旋性环流增强,来自高纬度的冷空气吹过洋面,海气温差加大,大洋的感热通量损失增加,SST降低。热带地区东风的增强,也是导致那里SST降低的重要机制。三核型SST异常对大气的反馈作用较弱,文中没有证据表明它能够影响到北大西洋地区的年代际气候变率。 相似文献
4.
利用1981—2015年NCEP/NCAR月平均资料、NOAA的逐月CMAP（CPC（Climate Prediction Center）Merged Analysis of Precipitation）降水资料以及GODAS的月平均洋流资料和SODA的月平均风应力资料,定义了南太平洋辐合带（SPCZ）的关键区域,对南太平洋辐合带的季节变化特征及南太平洋辐合带的形成和维持原因进行了分析。结果表明,在南太平洋辐合带,4月存在由东西风切变型辐合带向东风辐合型辐合带转变的现象,而12月则存在相反的转换。在对流层低层,南太平洋辐合带区域的向上伸展高度和辐合在北半球冬季较其他季节明显高和强。引起南太平洋辐合带形成与维持的原因有2个方面:一是地形作用。由于地形的阻挡,造成等位涡线发生沿澳大利亚地形的绕行,利于澳大利亚地区反气旋性环流和南太平洋辐合带区域气旋性环流的形成与维持;同时,在地形和科里奥利力共同作用下,还易使暖海水在南太平洋辐合带区域汇聚,形成高海表温度区,从而加热大气,利于南太平洋辐合带的形成与维持。二是非绝热加热作用。南太平洋辐合带区域范围内的热源作用可以使其上方的大气受到加热,并产生加热强迫纬向梯度,驱动低层大气产生辐合。这些结果对深刻认识全球环流特别是南半球热带环流变化有重要意义。 相似文献
5.
山东夏季降水与热带海气相互作用区域特性的相关分析 总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12
采用一种能够反映热带海气相互作用区域特性的指数,分析了热带５个洋区（西太平洋、中太平洋、东太平洋、大西洋、印度洋）的海气相互作用指数与山东夏季（６～８月）降水的相互联系。结果表明,只有热带印度洋的海气相互作用的第１模态与山东夏季降水存在的显著相关。热带印度洋海温偏高时山东夏季降水偏少,反之偏多。热带西印度洋区域１０００ｈＰａ风向赤道区域异常辐合,并伴随出现正海表温度异常的年份,山东夏季降水往往偏少 相似文献
6.
基于2004/01—2013/12的Argo及卫星遥感等观测数据,运用经验正交函数（EOF）方法分析了热带太平洋混合层盐度（MLS）的时空特征并探讨其物理机制。结果表明：热带西太平洋混合层盐度呈现出明显的递增趋势,南太平洋辐合带（SPCZ）区域尤为显著,而南热带太平洋东部的混合层则有变淡的趋势。在季节时间尺度上,MLS在如下的4个区域呈现显著变化：西太平洋暖池、赤道东太平洋美洲沿岸、赤道辐合带（ITCZ）和SPCZ。利用盐收支方程进一步定量分析了两个代表区域（暖池区和ITCZ区）的MLS变化率及其控制因子,研究发现：暖池区淡水通量长年表现为负值,且随季节变化波动不大。除6、7月份之外,水平平流对MLS变化率均有正的贡献,其峰期出现在10—12月份。ITCZ区的淡水通量存在显著季节变化,其下半年的贡献明显大于上半年,水平平流输送和混合层底的夹卷也在11月份达到最大。暖池区的盐度变化主要受到水平平流的影响,混合层底的夹卷作用贡献相对较小,而在ITCZ区混合层底的夹卷贡献作用则更显著。 相似文献
7.
海洋边界层高度是表征海洋上空大气的水汽、热量、物质等垂直分布的重要特征量，同时在气候、污染、模式预报上有关键作用。然而，利用海洋边界层高度观测对数值天气预报模式进行诊断的研究很少。因此，本文利用2019—2020年GPS掩星资料计算出的海洋边界层高度的分布特征，对CMA GFS全球模式的预报性能进行分析，同时借助ERA5再分析资料对CMA GFS模式的偏差进行讨论。主要结论如下：①CMA GFS全球模式在西太平洋、南太平洋、南大西洋绝大部分海域预报的边界层高度比较合理;②模式在热带辐合带海域和南太平洋辐合带存在高估预报，初步分析与模式对热带深对流的抬升凝结高度的预报偏高有关。③模式和ERA5在南半球层积云所在区域均存在边界层高度预报偏低，初步分析可能是模式对南半球层积云顶辐射冷却驱动的湍流扩散偏小造成。④模式在有云的大气下主要呈现为预报偏高，中心值在200 m左右，而在晴空区域模式预报较为合理，偏差值范围较小，ERA5也存在类似的特点。 相似文献
8.
表层洋流对外强迫响应敏感度的数值研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
利用数值模拟研究了海表流场对外强迫（风应力和海表热通量）的响应特征,探讨了其对该类外强迫异常响应的敏感性以及较敏感区域。在确认本文所用的海洋环流模式能够较好地模拟表层海洋流场的气候状态之后,通过几个敏感性试验与控制（对照）试验结果的比较,发现海洋表层环流对海表风应力异常响应的敏感区域主要在赤道附近及大洋西边界海区;相对于热带外地区,热带海域（20°S～20°N）的风应力异常对于大洋表层环流的变化有着更重要的显著作用,它不仅会导致热带海域表层流场有较大的变化,对中高纬海区的表层流场特别是西边界流也有明显影响;海洋表层环流对海表热通量异常的响应除了在赤道附近海域明显之外,在中高纬海区也十分显著;在外强迫有同等异常幅度（20%）的情况下,大洋西边界海域对热通量的响应明显要强于对风应力的响应。此外,热通量异常还对南太平洋东海岸的洋流和南极大陆的绕极环流有较为明显的影响。 相似文献
9.
基于ECMWF再分析数据的大气波导分布规律研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
大气波导对电磁波传播有显著的影响,大气波导特征参量分布研究对于分析电磁波传播乃至雷达、通信等电子设备效能具有重要意义,利用ERA-Interim数据计算大气波导特征参量,并用海洋调查期间的低空探空火箭数据计算的大气波导进行了验证,在此基础上用2011—2016年ERA-Interim温度、湿度分层数据统计分析了全球大气波导的发生概率、强度、高度,得出的结论是:大洋东部、大陆西部的信风带是大气波导的高发区,大洋上大气波导的高发区（发生概率＞50%）主要有6个,分别是北太平洋海区、南太平洋海区、北大西洋海区、南大西洋海区、北印度洋海区、南印度洋澳大利亚西部海区;同时,存在3个大气波导低发区或无大气波导区（热带辐合带区、北半球中高纬度区、南半球中高纬度区）。这些大气波导高发和低发区的位置、范围、发生概率具有季节变化,北半球MAM季（3—5月）发生概率最高,出现的范围最大,SON季（9—11月）概率最低,出现的范围最小,DJF（12、1、2月）、JJA（6—8月）季节介于两者之间;南半球SON季发生概率最高,出现的范围最大,MAM季概率最低,出现的范围最小。北半球大气波导强度总体上强于南半球大气波导强度,北半球MAM季大气波导较强海域范围最大,强度最强,其次为JJA季,SON季大气波导较强海域范围最小,强度最弱;南太平洋大气波导强度季节变化不明显,强度与北太平洋比均较弱,南大西洋SON季大气波导较强海域范围最大,强度最强,DJF季大气波导较强海域范围最小,强度最弱;北印度洋MAM季大气波导强度强,是大洋上波导最强的海域,大气波导较强海域范围大,JJA季基本没有大气波导。大气波导高度在信风带靠近大陆西岸海域高度较低,随着向西离岸距离增大高度升高,大气波导高发区的波导高度季节变化特征是:北半球在SON、DJF季高度高,波导高度高的区域面积大,MAM、JJA季高度低,波导高度高的区域面积小;南半球在MAM、JJA季高度高,波导高度高的区域面积大,SON、DJF季高度低,波导高度高的区域面积小;其他中低纬度近岸海域大气波导高度较低,大陆包围的内海大气波导高度最低。 相似文献
10.
11.
Pascal Terray 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(11-12):2171-2199
The main goal of this paper is to shed additional light on the reciprocal dynamical linkages between mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere climate and the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal. While our analysis confirms that ENSO is a dominant source of interannual variability in the Southern Hemisphere, it is also suggested here that subtropical dipole variability in both the Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans triggered by Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude variability may also provide a controlling influence on ENSO in the equatorial Pacific. This subtropical forcing operates through various coupled air?Csea feedbacks involving the propagation of subtropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies into the deep tropics of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans from boreal winter to boreal spring and a subsequent dynamical atmospheric response to these SST anomalies linking the three tropical basins at the beginning of the boreal spring. This atmospheric response is characterized by a significant weakening of the equatorial Atlantic and Indian Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This weakened ITCZ forces an equatorial ??cold Kelvin wave?? response in the middle to upper troposphere that extends eastward from the heat sink regions into the western Pacific. By modulating the vertical temperature gradient and the stability of the atmosphere over the equatorial western Pacific Ocean, this Kelvin wave response promotes persistent zonal wind and convective anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific, which may trigger El Ni?o onset at the end of the boreal winter. These different processes explain why South Atlantic and Indian subtropical dipole time series indices are highly significant precursors of the Ni?o34 SST index several months in advance before the El Ni?o onset in the equatorial Pacific. This study illustrates that the atmospheric internal variability in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere may significantly influence ENSO variability. However, this surprising relationship is observed only during recent decades, after the so-called 1976/1977 climate regime shift, suggesting a possible linkage with global warming or decadal fluctuations of the climate system. 相似文献
12.
Christine T. Y. Chung Scott B. Power Julie M. Arblaster Harun A. Rashid Gregory L. Roff 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(7-8):1837-1856
Precipitation changes over the Indo-Pacific during El Niño events are studied using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model forced with sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies and changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Linear increases in the amplitude of the El Niño SST anomaly pattern trigger nonlinear changes in precipitation amounts, resulting in shifts in the location and orientation of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). In particular, the maximum precipitation anomaly along the ITCZ and SPCZ shifts eastwards, the ITCZ shifts south towards the equator, and the SPCZ becomes more zonal. Precipitation in the equatorial Pacific also increases nonlinearly. The effect of increasing CO2 levels and warming SSTs is also investigated. Global warming generally enhances the tropical Pacific precipitation response to El Niño. The precipitation response to El Niño is found to be dominated by changes in the atmospheric mean circulation dynamics, whereas the response to global warming is a balance between dynamic and thermodynamic changes. While the dependence of projected climate change impacts on seasonal variability is well-established, this study reveals that the impact of global warming on Pacific precipitation also depends strongly on the magnitude of the El Niño event. The magnitude and structure of the precipitation changes are also sensitive to the spatial structure of the global warming SST pattern. 相似文献
13.
A companion paper (Part I: Toma and Webster 2008), argued that the characteristics of the mean Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) arise from instabilities associated with
the strong cross-equatorial pressure gradient (CEPG) that exists in the eastern Pacific Ocean as a result of the latitudinal
sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient. Furthermore, it was argued that instabilities of the mean ITCZ resulted in the in
situ development of easterly waves. Thus, in Part I, it was hypothesized that the mean and transient state of eastern Pacific
convection was due to local processes and less so to the advection of waves from the North Atlantic Ocean. To test this hypothesis
and, at the same time, consider others such as a possible role of the equatorial and subtropical orography in generating local
instabilities, a series of controlled numerical experiments are designed using the WRF regional model. The domain of the model
was configured to include the western Atlantic Ocean, the Isthmus of Panama and the eastern Pacific Ocean to 155°W. Lateral
boundaries were set at 40°N and 40°S, thus containing the mountains of Central America, the Andes and the Sierra Madre of
Mexico. In a series of experiments, analysis products were used as boundary conditions that were successively updated four
times per day, set as 10-day running average fields or as running mean monthly fields. Finally, the model was run with topography
essentially eliminated over the land areas. Although there are differences between the details of the resultant fields, the
location of mean convection and the form of the transients remain the same. It is concluded, in support of the theoretical
and diagnostic studies of Part I that orographic forcing or waves generated in the North Atlantic Ocean are not the major
causes of the mean and transient nature of disturbances in the eastern Pacific. 相似文献
14.
Tsuneaki Suzuki 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,103(1-2):39-60
We investigated the seasonal march of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shown by the 22 coupled general circulation models of the 20th Century Climate in Coupled Models experiment in seven regions (Africa, Indian Ocean, western Pacific, central Pacific, eastern Pacific, South America, and Atlantic Ocean). Inter-model differences in the seasonal march of the ITCZ over Africa (10?C40°E) were significantly smaller than those over other regions. This finding indicates that the seasonal march of the ITCZ over Africa is insensitive to differences in model physics and resolution and suggests that the seasonal march of the African ITCZ is controlled by robust and simple mechanisms. Motivated by this result, we tried to understand the process of the seasonal march of the ITCZ over central Africa (15?C30°E) based on an analysis of ERA-40 data. The analysis results revealed the following features of the ITCZ in this region: (1) The ITCZ itself produces large convective available potential energy that generates deep convection. (2) The abundant water vapor within the ITCZ is maintained by horizontal moisture flux. (3) Outside but near the ITCZ, shallow convection exists and may act to pre-moisten deep convection in spring and autumn. (4) The seasonal change of the ITCZ is preceded by that of the vertical moist instability in the lower free atmosphere caused by the seasonal change in insolation. 相似文献
15.
Response of the Asian summer monsoon to weakening of Atlantic thermohaline circulation 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Various paleoclimate records have shown that the Asian monsoon was punctuated by numerous suborbital time-scale events, and these events were coeval with those that happened in the North Atlantic. This study investigates the Asian summer monsoon responses to the Atlantic Ocean forcing by applying an additional freshwater flux into the North Atlantic. The simulated results indicate that the cold North Atlantic and warm South Atlantic induced by the weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation （THC） due to the freshwater flux lead to significantly suppressed Asian summer monsoon. The authors analyzed the detailed processes of the Atlantic Ocean forcing on the Asian summer monsoon, and found that the atmospheric teleconnection in the eastern and central North Pacific and the atmosphere-ocean interaction in the tropical North Pacific play the most crucial role. Enhanced precipitation in the subtropical North Pacific extends the effects of Atlantic Ocean forcing from the eastern Pacific into the western Pacific, and the atmosphere-ocean interaction in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean intensifies the circulation and precipitation anomalies in the Pacific and East Asia. 相似文献
16.
Precipitation (P) and freshwater (E-P) fluxes at the air-sea interface are investigated in the Atlantic Ocean sector using the reanalyses of the European Centre
for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ERA) and of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). A canonical correlation
analysis method between these fields and sea level pressure (SLP) is used to identify patterns. We also test whether precipitation
and freshwater fluxes can be reconstructed from SLP data. In the winter months, patterns associated with both the North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic (EA) mode are identified. The signals are strong enough to be reconstructed from the
reanalysis fields, and they correspond to a significant part of the variability. The NAO signal is more robust than the EA
one. The NAO-related variability mode is also present when the monthly precipitation rate is averaged for the winter season
and even for annual averages. However, in the later case, other variability of natural origin (for instance, ENSO variability)
or noise from the model and assimilation system prevents the reconstruction of E-P associated with NAO from SLP variability. Difficulties are identified in the tropical Atlantic with a different behaviour
of NCEP and ERA precipitation variability, especially near the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The ERA patterns suggest
a NAO signature in the tropical Atlantic which has clear monthly patterns and indicates a link between the phase of NAO and
changes in the position and intensity of ITCZ. However, the analysis of winter rainfall based on satellite and in situ data
does not support the monthly tropical pattern of ERA precipitation although it suggests a relation between convection near
15°S and NAO during northern winter.
Received: 10 February 2000 / Accepted: 7 May 2001 相似文献
17.
The South Pacific Convergence Zone in CMIP5 simulations of historical and future climate 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is evaluated in historical simulations from 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and compared with previous generation CMIP3 models. A subset of 24 CMIP5 models are able to simulate a distinct SPCZ in the December to February (DJF) austral summer, although the position of the SPCZ in these models is too zonal compared with observations. The spatial pattern of SPCZ precipitation is improved in CMIP5 models relative to CMIP3 models, although the spurious double ITCZ precipitation band in the eastern Pacific is intensified in many CMIP5 models. All CMIP5 models examined capture some interannual variability of SPCZ latitude, and 19 models simulate a realistic correlation with El Niño–Southern Oscillation. In simulations of the twenty-first century under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, no consistent shift in the mean position of the DJF SPCZ is identified. Several models simulate significant shifts northward, and a similar number of models simulate significant southward shifts. The majority of CMIP5 models simulate an increase in mean DJF SPCZ precipitation, and there is an intensification of the eastern Pacific double ITCZ precipitation band in many models. Most models simulate regions of increased precipitation in the western part of the SPCZ and near the equator, and regions of decreased precipitation at the eastern edge of the SPCZ. Decomposition of SPCZ precipitation changes into dynamic and thermodynamic components reveals predominantly increased precipitation due to thermodynamic changes, while dynamic changes lead to regions of both positive and negative precipitation anomalies. 相似文献
18.
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GLOBAL WARMING AND THE VARIATION IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
The relationship between global warming and the variation in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis
frequency is analyzed using the data of the Tropical Cyclone Year Book by the China Meteorological
Administration and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data from 1949
to 2007. The observational results indicate that the average sea surface temperature (SST) in the
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) region (10°N – 20°N, 100°E – 140°E) increases by 0.6°C against
the background of global warming, while the frequency of tropical cyclone geneses in this region decreases
significantly. Generally, the rise of SSTs is favorable for the genesis of tropical cyclones, but it is now
shown to be contrary to the normal effect. Most of the tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific (WNP)
are generated in the ITCZ. This is quite different from the case in the Atlantic basin in which the tropical
cyclones are mostly generated from the easterly wave. Our research results demonstrate that the ITCZ has a
weakening trend in strength, and it has moved much more equatorward in the past 40 years; both are
disadvantageous to the formation of tropical cyclones. Furthermore, our study also found that the ridge of
the subtropical high tends to shift slightly equatorward, which is another adverse mechanism for the
formation of tropical cyclones. 相似文献