共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 218 毫秒
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流域洪涝定量描述及江西省48a流域洪涝分析 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
分别对单站洪涝强度、流域集中期洪涝强度和流域汛期洪涝强度进行了定量描述。并对1951～1998年江西省5大流域的洪涝分别进行了比较分析,得出了各大流域近半世纪10大洪涝集中期、10大洪涝汛期和南北分片10大洪涝年。 相似文献
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盛夏流域面融雪量初步分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
毛炜峄 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2007,1(6):24-28
盛夏主汛期我国西部地区流域的洪水类型较东部地区复杂,为了提高当地防洪气象服务水平和丰富全国汛期气象服务技术,分析了融雪洪水与暴雨洪水物理过程的差异,提出了描述流域融雪洪水过程的面融雪量等概念。指出了盛夏主汛期流域融雪洪水的气象服务关键技术。 相似文献
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应用500 hPa环流特征量及本站42年历史资料,分析了驻马店汛期旱涝成因,并建立了洪涝和干旱预报方程. 相似文献
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通过对汛期洪涝的环流形势及其前期的环流形势与异常气候的分析,认为洪涝的形成是复杂的,有着很多不确定的因素,所以洪涝应属于灰色系统的范围,应用灰色系统的理论建立灰色预测方程作汛期洪涝的长期预报。 相似文献
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分别对单站洪涝强度、流域集中期洪涝强度和流域汛期洪涝强度进行了定量描述,并对1951～1998年江西省5大流城的洪涝分别进行了比较分析,认为通过对洪涝强度的定量描述,可以方便、定量地比较历史上各汛期、各集中期流域洪涝强度,从而为地方党政领导开展情报服务,也可以以流域洪涝指数为预报对象开展对流域洪涝强度的预测研究;影响洪涝的因素很多,单从降水的时空分布看,集中期开始前的降水、集中期长度、集中期降水强度(最大5 d降水)及降水总量均会影响洪涝强度;文中对洪涝的客现描述方案与实际洪涝和灾害比较吻合,比用月季总降水量更能反映实际的洪涝情况;集中期洪涝指数比汛期洪涝指数更能反映洪涝程度;江西省洪涝多发时段是5月25日～7月11日,较严重的洪涝主要出在6月下旬～7月上中旬,绝大多数集中期在10 d左右;90年代南片和北片分别有3 a和5 a列为10大洪涝年,且1998年被列入集中期洪涝、汛期洪涝和10大洪涝年第1位,是解放以来洪涝灾害最严重的1 a,表明进入90年代后江西省步入多洪涝期. 相似文献
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通过对汛期洪涝的环流形势及其前期的环流形势与异常的分析,认为洪涝的形成是复杂的,有着很多不确定的因素,所以洪涝应属于灰色系统的范围,应用灰色系统的理论建立灰色预测方法作汛期洪涝的长期预报。 相似文献
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1998和2010年长江流域汛期洪涝成因对比分析 总被引：2，自引：3，他引：2
1998年和2010年长江流域均出现区域性大洪水,水位均超警戒线。2010年长江上游嘉陵江、岷沱江流域支流渠江发生超历史性洪水,虽然江苏省沿江地区汛期降水量正常略多,但汛期有降水较集中的时段,上游客水和江苏省的强降水时段叠加,造成长江下游超警水位。对比分析了1998年与2010年夏季长江流域区域性洪涝的的成因,这两年,前冬都表现为厄尔尼诺事件,而南海夏季风爆发早晚虽不同,但南海夏季风都明显偏弱,副热带高压强度指数偏强,位置明显偏南,冬季积雪偏多。 相似文献
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应用500hPa环流特征量及本站42年历史资料，分析了驻马店汛期旱涝成因，并建立了洪涝和干旱预报方程。 相似文献
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Huan WU Xiaomeng LI Guy J.-P.SCHUMANN Lorenzo ALFIERI Yun CHEN Hui XU Zhifang WU Hong LU Yamin HU Qiang ZHU Zhijun HUANG Weitian CHEN Ying HU 《大气科学进展》2021,38(1):1-7
The prolonged mei-yu/baiu system with anomalous precipitation in the year 2020 has swollen many rivers and lakes,caused flash flooding,urban flooding and landslides,and consistently wreaked havoc across large swathes of China,particularly in the Yangtze River basin.Significant precipitation and flooding anomalies have already been seen in magnitude and extension so far this year,which have been exerting much higher pressure on emergency responses in flood control and mitigation than in other years,even though a rainy season with multiple ongoing serious flood events in different provinces is not that uncommon in China.Instead of delving into the causes of the uniqueness of this year’s extreme precipitation-flooding situation,which certainly warrants in-depth exploration,in this article we provide a short view toward a more general hydrometeorological solution to this annual nationwide problem.A“glocal”(global to local)hydrometeorological solution for floods(GHS-F)is considered to be critical for better preparedness,mitigation,and management of different types of significant precipitation-caused flooding,which happen extensively almost every year in many countries such as China,India and the United States.Such a GHS-F model is necessary from both scientific and operational perspectives,with the strength in providing spatially consistent flood definitions and spatially distributed flood risk classification considering the heterogeneity in vulnerability and resilience across the entire domain.Priorities in the development of such a GHS-F are suggested,emphasizing the user’s requirements and needs according to practical experiences with various flood response agencies. 相似文献
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Modelling the combined impacts of sea-level rise and land subsidence on storm tides induced flooding of the Huangpu River in Shanghai, China 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
This paper presents a scenario-based study that investigates the interaction between sea-level rise and land subsidence on the storm tides induced fluvial flooding in the Huangpu river floodplain. Two projections of relative sea level rise (RSLR) were presented (2030 and 2050). Water level projections at the gauging stations for different return periods were generated using a simplified algebraic summation of the eustatic sea-level rise, land subsidence and storm tide level. Frequency analysis with relative sea level rise taken into account shows that land subsidence contributes to the majority of the RSLR (between 60 % and 70 %). Furthermore, a 1D/2D coupled flood inundation model (FloodMap) was used to predict the river flow and flood inundation, after calibration using the August 1997 flood event. Numerical simulation with projected RSLR suggests that, the combined impact of eustatic sea-level rise and land subsidence would be a significantly reduced flood return period for a given water level, thus effective degradation of the current flood defences. In the absence of adaptation measures, storm flooding will cause up to 40 % more inundation, particularly in the upstream of the river. 相似文献
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Recent destructive flood events and projected increases in flood risks as a result of climate change in many regions around the world demonstrate the importance of improving flood risk management. Flood-proofing of buildings is often advocated as an effective strategy for limiting damage caused by floods. However, few empirical studies have estimated the damage that can be avoided by implementing such flood damage mitigation measures. This study estimates potential damage savings and the cost-effectiveness of specific flood damage mitigation measures that were implemented by households during major flood events in France. For this purpose, data about flood damage experienced and household flood preparedness were collected using a survey of 885 French households in three flood-prone regions that face different flood hazards. Four main conclusions can be drawn from this study. First, using regression analysis results in improved estimates of the effectiveness of mitigation measures than methods used by earlier studies that compare mean damage suffered between households who have, and who have not, taken these measures. Second, this study has provided empirical insights showing that some mitigation measures can substantially reduce damage during floods. Third, the effectiveness of the mitigation measures is very regional dependent, which can be explained by the different characteristics of the flood hazard in our sample areas that experience either slow onset river flooding or more rapid flash and coastal flooding. Fourth, the cost-efficiency of the flood damage mitigation measures depends strongly on the flood probability faced by households. 相似文献
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Flood damage modelling has traditionally been limited to the local, regional or national scale. Recent flood events, population growth and climate change concerns have increased the need for global methods with both spatial and temporal dynamics. This paper presents a first estimation of global economic exposure to both river and coastal flooding for the period 1970–2050, using two different methods for damage assessment. One method is based on population and the second is based on land-use within areas subject to 1/100 year flood events. On the basis of population density and GDP per capita, we estimate a total global exposure to river and coastal flooding of 46 trillion USD in 2010. By 2050, these numbers are projected to increase to 158 trillion USD. Using a land-use based assessment, we estimated a total flood exposure of 27 trillion USD in 2010. For 2050 we simulate a total exposure of 80 trillion USD. The largest absolute exposure changes between 1970 and 2050 are simulated in North America and Asia. In relative terms we project the largest increases in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. The models also show systematically larger growth in the population living within hazard zones compared to total population growth. While the methods unveil similar overall trends in flood exposure, there are significant differences in the estimates and geographical distribution. These differences result from inherent model characteristics and the varying relationship between population density and the total urban area in the regions of analysis. We propose further research on the modelling of inundation characteristics and flood protection standards, which can complement the methodologies presented in this paper to enable the development of a global flood risk framework. 相似文献
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中小河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估及效果检验 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文基于FloodArea水动力模型及WRF模式,运用气象资料、水文资料、地理信息资料、社会经济统计资料以及灾情调查资料等,以长江一级支流的秋浦河流域为研究区,开展中小河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估及效果检验。结果表明:FloodArea模型对洪水的淹没范围、淹没水深以及淹没历时等具有较好的模拟效果,可用于中小河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估与预警业务,并由此初步建立了包含模式降水预报→面雨量计算→洪涝淹没模拟→风险评估→预警发布→效果检验等环节的暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估及效果检验业务流程,实现从以往常规的强降水预报到暴雨洪涝灾害预报的业务延伸,可进行推广应用。 相似文献
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近百年长江中游旱涝的变化 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用史料和器测雨量记录重建的近百年长江中游区域平均逐年旱涝等级指数序列研究了旱涝变化特征，发现：（１）２０世纪前涝后旱，（２）２２年、５－６年和２－３年的准周期振动，（３）６个交替出现的旱涝阶段。 相似文献
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屈产河流域位于黄土高原东部,流域内植被稀疏,土层厚而松,降水少且集中,遇暴雨天气容易发生泥石流、山洪等灾害。本文基于2020年8月5~6日罕见强降水的实地灾情调查结果,对FloodArea模型在屈产河流域的淹没水深和风险评估结果进行检验。结果表明:屈产河流域地势低洼的河道附近及干沟地区山洪风险较大;此次强降水过程屈产河流域最大淹没深度2.8 m,受洪灾影响人口为5475人,受影响GDP为3615×10^(4)元,耕地和居民地受灾面积分别为20.7 km^(2)和0.7 km^(2)。模拟最大淹没深度、受影响GDP和受灾面积与实际调查情况基本一致,但受影响人口低于实际调查结果,该结果表明FloodArea模型在屈产河流域具有较好的洪水淹没模拟效果,可用于暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估与预警业务。 相似文献