Multi-year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model （RegCM_NCC）. Part Ⅰ： Sensitivity Study   总被引：21，自引：0，他引：21  

丁一汇  史学丽  刘一鸣  刘艳  李清泉  钱永甫  苗蔓倩  翟国庆  高昆 《大气科学进展》2006,23(3):323-341

A modified version of the NCAR/RegCM2 has been developed at the National Climate Center （NCC）, China Meteorological Administration, through a series of sensitivity experiments and multi-year simulations and hindcasts, with a special emphasis on the adequate choice of physical parameterization schemes suitable for the East Asian monsoon climate. This regional climate model is nested with the NCC/IAP （Institute of Atmospheric Physics） T63 coupled GCM to make an experimental seasonal prediction for China and East Asia. The four-year （2001 to 2004） prediction results are encouraging. This paper is the first part of a two-part paper, and it mainly describes the sensitivity study of the physical process paraxneterization represented in the model. The systematic errors produced by the different physical parameterization schemes such as the land surface processes, convective precipitation, cloud-radiation transfer process, boundary layer process and large-scale terrain features have been identified based on multi-year and extreme flooding event simulations. A number of comparative experiments has shown that the mass flux scheme （MFS） and Betts-Miller scheme （BM） for convective precipitation, the LPMI （land surface process model I） and LPMII （land surface process model Ⅱ） for the land surface process, the CCM3 radiation transfer scheme for cloud-radiation transfer processes, the TKE （turbulent kinetic energy） scheme for the boundary layer processes and the topography treatment schemes for the Tibetan Plateau are suitable for simulations and prediction of the East Asia monsoon climate in rainy seasons. Based on the above sensitivity study, a modified version of the RegCM2 （RegCM_NCC） has been set up for climate simulations and seasonal predictions.  相似文献   

Hindcast Experiment of Extraseasonal Short-Term Summer Climate Prediction over China with RegCM3_IAP9L-AGCM   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

JU Lixi  LANG Xianmei 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2011,25(3):376-385

The regional climate model RegCM3 has been one-way nested into IAP9L-AGCM,the nine-level atmospheric general circulation model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,to perform a 20-yr(1982-2001)hindcast experiment on extraseaonal short-term prediction of China summer climate.The nested prediction system is referred to as RegCM3_IAP9L-AGCM in this paper.The results show that hindcasted climate fields such as 500-hPa geopotential height,200-and 850-hPa zonal winds from RegCM3_IAP9L-AGCM have positive anomaly correlation coefficients (ACCs) with the observations,andare better than those from the stand-alone IAP9L-AGCM.Except for the 850-hPa wind field,the positive ACCs of the other two fields with observations both pass the 90% confidence level and display a zonal distribution.The results indicate that the positive correlation of summer precipitation anomaly percentage between the nested prediction system and observations covers most parts of China except for downstream of the Yangtze River and north of Northeast and Northwest China.The nested prediction system and the IAP9L-AGCM exhibit different hindcast skills over different regions of China,and the former demonstrates a higher skill over South China than the latter in predicting the summer precipitation.  相似文献   

嵌套域大小对区域气候模式模拟效果的影响   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：3  

Liu Huaqiang  Qian Yongfu  Zheng Yiqun 《大气科学进展》2002,19(1):111-120

This paper presents a numerical study on the 1998 summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley in central and eastern China, addressing effect of a nested area size on simulations in terms of the technique of nesting a regional climate model (RCM) upon a general circulation model (GCM). Evidence suggests that the size exerts greater impacts upon regional climate of the country, revealing that a larger nested size is su perior to a small one for simulation in mitigating errors of GCM-provided lateral boundary forcing. Also,simulations show that the RCM should incorporate regions of climate systems of great importance into study and a low-resolution GCM yields more pronounced errors as a rule when used in the research of the Tibetan Plateau, and, in contrast, our PσRCM can do a good job in describing the plateau′s role in a more realistic and accurate way. It is for this reason that the tableland should be included in the nested area when the RCM is employed to investigate the regional climate. Our PσRCM nesting upon a GCM reaches morerealistic results compared to a single GCM used.  相似文献   

EXTRA-SEASONAL PREDICTIONS OF SUMMER RAINFALL IN CHINA AND ENSO IN 2001 BY CLIMATE MODELS   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

李清泉  赵宗慈 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2002,(4)

China is a monsoon country.The most rainfalls in China concentrate on the summer seasons.More frequent floods or droughts occur in some parts of China.Therefore,the prediction ofsummer rainfall in China is a significant issue.As we know,the obvious impacts of the sea surfacetemperature anomalies(SSTA)on the summer rainfall over China have been noticed.Thepredictions of the SSTA have been involved in the research.The key project on short-term climate modeling prediction system has been finished in 2000.The system included an atmospheric general circulation model named AGCM95,a coupledatmospheric-oceanic general circulation model named AOGCM95,a regional climate model overChina named RegCM95,a high-resolution Indian-Pacific OGCM named IPOGCM95,and asimplified atmosphere-ocean dynamic model system named SAOMS95.They became theoperational prediction models of National Climate Center(NCC).Extra-seasonal predictions in 2001 have been conducted by several climate models,which werethe AGCM95,AOGCM95,RegCM95,IPOGCM95,AIPOGCM95,OSU/NCC,SAOMS95,IAPAPOGCM and CAMS/ZS.All of those models predicted the summer precipitation over China and/or the annual SSTA over the tropical Pacific Ocean in the Modeling Prediction Workshop held inMarch 2001.The assessments have shown that the most models predicted the distributions of main rain beltover Huanan and parts of Jiangnan and droughts over Huabei-Hetao and Huaihe River Valleyreasonably.The most models predicted successfully that a weaker cold phase of the SSTA over thecentral and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean would continue in 2001.The evaluations of extra-seasonal predictions have also indicated that the models had a certaincapability of predicting the SSTA over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the summer rainfall overChina.The assessment also showed that multi-model ensemble(super ensembles)predictionsprovided the better forecasts for both SSTA and summer rainfall in 2001,compared with the singlemodel.It is a preliminary assessment for the extra-seasonal predictions by the climate models.Thefurther investigations will be carried out.The model system should be developed and improved.  相似文献   

Dynamic downscaling of summer precipitation prediction over China in 1998 using WRF and CCSM4   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

MA Jiehua  WANG Huijun  FAN Ke 《大气科学进展》2015,32(5):577-584

To study the prediction of the anomalous precipitation and general circulation for the summer(June–July–August) of1998, the Community Climate System Model Version 4.0(CCSM4.0) integrations were used to drive version 3.2 of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF3.2) regional climate model to produce hindcasts at 60 km resolution. The results showed that the WRF model produced improved summer precipitation simulations. The systematic errors in the east of the Tibetan Plateau were removed, while in North China and Northeast China the systematic errors still existed. The improvements in summer precipitation interannual increment prediction also had regional characteristics. There was a marked improvement over the south of the Yangtze River basin and South China, but no obvious improvement over North China and Northeast China. Further analysis showed that the improvement was present not only for the seasonal mean precipitation, but also on a sub-seasonal timescale. The two occurrences of the Mei-yu rainfall agreed better with the observations in the WRF model,but were not resolved in CCSM. These improvements resulted from both the higher resolution and better topography of the WRF model.  相似文献   

CLIMATE CHANGE DUE TO GREENHOUSE EFFECTS IN CHINA AS SIMULATED BY A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL—PART Ⅱ:CLIMATE CHANGE^*          下载免费PDF全文

GAO Xuejie  ZHAO Zongci  DING Yihui  HUANG Ronghui  Filippo Giorgi 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2003,17(4):417-427

Impacts of greenhouse effects(2×CO₂) on climate change over China as simulated by a regional climate model have been investigated.The model was based on RegCM2 and is nested in one-way mode within a global coupled atmosphere-ocean model(CSIRO R21L9 AOGCM).Two multi-year simulations,the control run with normal CO₂ concentration and sensitivity run with doubled CO₂ concentration are conducted. As Part II of the publications,with a brief analysis of the 2×CO₂ experiment by CSIRO R21Lg,results of the 2×CO₂ simulation by RegCM2 are analyzed in detail. Results of the RegCM show a remarkably warming over China with an increment ranging from 2.2℃ in southern China to 2.8℃ in northern due to greenhouse effect.The regional averaged annual temperature increase is 2.5℃.The warming is greater in winter and spring.Daily maximum and minimum temperatures increase also over China which lead to much more hot spell days in summer and less cold spell days in winter. Precipitation increases in all seasons of the year,with the greatest found in summer.Annual mean precipitation increases significantly in western China,parts of the area in south of the Yangtze River and northern part of the Northeast.while a decrease in the area from southern part of the Northeast to North China is simulated.The regional averaged annual increase of precipitation is 12%.More heavy rain events are found noticeably in southern China.The simulated tropical storms affecting and landing over China tend to increase.Analysis on the simulation of circulation pattern showed that the 500 hPa height in East Asia might rise significantly.  相似文献   

RegCM3对全球变暖背景下中国东部季风降水和雨型变化的模拟          下载免费PDF全文

SHI Ying  GAO Xue-Jie  WANG Yong-Guang  Filippo GIORGI 《大气和海洋科学快报》2009,2(5):308-313

The authors investigate possible changes of monsoon rainfall and associated seasonal (June-JulyAugust) anomaly patterns over eastern China in the late 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 emission scenario as simulated by a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) nested in a general circulation model (FvGCM/CCM3).Two sets of multi-decadal simulations are performed at 20-km grid spacing for present day and future climate conditions.Results show that the RegCM3 reproduces the mean rainfall distribution;however the evolution of the monsoon rain belt from South China to North China is not well simulated.Concerning the rain pattern classifications,RegCM3 overestimates the occurrence of Pattern 1 (excessive rainfall in northern China) and underestimates that of Pattern 2 (increased rainfall over the Huai River basin).Under future climate conditions,RegCM3 projects less occurrence of Pattern 1,more of Pattern 2,and little change of Pattern 3 (rainfall increase along the Yangtze River).These results indicate that there might be increased rainfall over the Huai-Yellow River area and reduced rainfall over North China in the future,while rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin is not modified significantly.Uncertainties exist in the present study are also discussed.  相似文献   

NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN CHINA UNDER A1B SCENARIO   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

李新周  刘晓东 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2014,20(2):121-134

The regional climate model （RegCM3）, developed by the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics and nested in one-way mode within the latest version of Community Climate System Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, is used to conduct a set of experiments to examine its capability of climate simulation for the past 50 years and to explore possible changes in extreme precipitation （EP） in the next 100 years under the A1B scenario. Compared with the observation from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia and CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation, RegCM3 reasonably reproduces the spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and EP in eastern China. Based on the present-day analysis, this study examines the changes in monsoonal precipitation over eastern China in mid- and late-21st century relative to the reference period of 1970-1999. It is found that the precipitation will increase over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and areas to its north, and decrease over coastal areas to its south, especially in late-21st century. The various indices reflecting extreme events showed that the EP will enhance 10%-15% over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and areas to its north, and weaken over the areas to its south. The summer monsoon will strengthen and shift northwards under SERS A1B, bringing more water vapor and energy from the Indian Ocean and South China Sea for precipitation and eventually more precipitation over northern China.  相似文献   

Numerical Simulation of Regional Climate Change under IPCC A2 Scenario in China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

TANG Jianping  CHEN Xing  ZHAO Ming  SU Bingkai 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2009,23(1):29-42

Regional climate change in China under the IPCC A2 Scenario, was simulated for continuous 10-yr period by the MM5V3, using the output of an IPCC A2 run from CISRO Mark 3 climate system model as lateral and surface boundary conditions. The regional climate change of surface air temperature, precipitation, and circulation were analyzed. The results showed that （1） the distribution of mean circulation, surface air temperature, and precipitation was reproduced by the MM5V3. The regional climate model was capable to improve the regional climate simulation driven by GCM. （2） The climate change simulation under the IPCC A2 Scenario indicated that the surface air temperature in China would increase in the future, with a stronger trend in winter and the increasing magnitude from the south to the north. The precipitation distribution would appear a distinct change as well. Annual mean precipitation would remarkably increase in Northeast China, Yangtze and Huaihe River Valley, and the south area of the valley. Meanwhile, rainfall would show a decreasing trend in partial areas of North China, and many regions of Southwest and Northwest China.  相似文献   

Dataset of Comparative Observations for Land Surface Processes over the Semi-Arid Alpine Grassland against Alpine Lakes in the Source Region of the Yellow River     

Xianhong MENG  Shihua LYU  Zhaoguo LI  Yinhuan AO  Lijuan WEN  Lunyu SHANG  Shaoying WANG  Mingshan DENG  Shaobo ZHANG  Lin ZHAO  Hao CHEN  Di MA  Suosuo LI  Lele SHU  Yingying AN  Hanlin NIU 《大气科学进展》2023,40(6):1142-1157

Thousands of lakes on the Tibetan Plateau(TP) play a critical role in the regional water cycle, weather, and climate. In recent years, the areas of TP lakes underwent drastic changes and have become a research hotspot. However, the characteristics of the lake-atmosphere interaction over the high-altitude lakes are still unclear, which inhibits model development and the accurate simulation of lake climate effects. The source region of the Yellow River(SRYR) has the largest outflow lake and freshw...  相似文献   

Multi-Year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model (RegCM_NCC) Part Ⅱ: The Experimental Seasonal Prediction     

DING Yihui  LIU Yiming  SHI Xueli  LI Qingquan  LI Qiaoping  LIU Yan 《大气科学进展》2006,23(4)

A nested regional climate model has been experimentally used in the seasonal prediction at the China National Climate Center (NCC) since 2001. The NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63coupled GCM (CGCM) provides the boundary and initial conditions for driving the regional climate model (RegCM_NCC). The latter has a 60-km horizontal resolution and improved physical pararneterization schemes including the mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme, the turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme (TKE) and an improved land process model (LPM). The large-scale terrain features such as the Tibetan Plateau are included in the larger domain to produce the topographic forcing on the rain-producing systems. A sensitivity study of the East Asian climate with regard to the above physical processes has been presented in the first part of the present paper. This is the second part, as a continuation of Part Ⅰ.In order to verify the performance of the nested regional climate model, a ten-year simulation driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets has been made to explore the performance of the East Asian climate simulation and to identify the model's systematic errors. At the same time, comparative simulation experiments for 5 years between the RegCM2 and RegCM_NCC have been done to further understand their differences in simulation performance. Also, a ten-year hindcast (1991-2000) for summer (June-August), the rainy season in China, has been undertaken. The preliminary results have shown that the RegCM_NCC is capable of predicting the major seasonal rain belts. The best predicted regions with high anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) are located in the eastern part of West China, in Northeast China and in North China,where the CGCM has maximum prediction skill as well. This fact may reflect the importance of the largescale forcing. One significant improvement of the prediction derived from RegCM_NCC is the increase of ACC in the Yangtze River valley where the CGCM has a very low, even a negative, ACC. The reason behind this improvement is likely to be related to the more realistic representation of the large-scale terrain features of the Tibetan Plateau. Presumably, many rain-producing systems may be generated over or near the Tibetan Plateau and may then move eastward along the Yangtze River basin steered by upper-level westerly airflow, thus leading to enhancement of rainfalls in the mid and lower basins of the Yangtze River.The real-time experimental predictions for summer in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 by using this nested RegCM_NCC were made. The results are basically reasonable compared with the observations.  相似文献   

中国业务动力季节预报的进展   总被引：26，自引：9，他引：26  

丁一汇  李清泉  李维京  罗勇  张培群  张祖强  史学丽  刘一鸣  王兰宁 《气象学报》2004,62(5):598-612

利用动力模式开展季节到年际的短期气候预测 ,是目前国际上气候预测的发展方向。自 1996年以来 ,经过 8a多的研制和发展 ,国家气候中心已建立起第 1代动力气候模式预测业务系统 ,其中包括 1个全球大气 海洋耦合模式 (CGCM )、1个高分辨率东亚区域气候模式 (RegCM_NCC)和 5个简化的ENSO预测模式 (SAOMS) ,可用于季节—年际时间尺度的全球气候预测 ;全球海气耦合模式与区域气候模式嵌套 ,可以提供高分辨率的东亚区域气候模式制做季节预测。CGCM对 1982～ 2 0 0 0年夏季的历史回报试验表明 ,该模式对热带太平洋海表面温度和东亚区域的季节预测具有较好的预测能力。RegCM NCC的 5a模拟基本上能再现东亚地区主要雨带的季节进展。利用嵌套的区域气候模式RegCM NCC对 1991～ 2 0 0 0年的夏季回报表明 ,在预报主要季节雨带方面有一定技巧。 2 0 0 1～ 2 0 0 3年 ,CGCM和RegCM NCC的实时季节预报与观测相比基本合理。特别是 ,模式成功地预报了 2 0 0 3年梅雨季节长江和黄河之间比常年偏多的降水。SAOMS模式系统的回报试验表明 ,该系统对热带太平洋海表面温度距平有一定的预报能力 ,模式超前 6～ 12个月的回报与观测的相关系数明显高于持续预报。 1997～ 2 0 0 3年 ,SAOMS多模式集合实时预报与观测的相关系数达到  相似文献   

Multi-year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model (RegCM_NCC). Part Ⅰ: Sensitivity Study     

DING Yihui  SHI Xueli  LIU Yiming  LIU Yan  LI Qingquan  QIAN Yongfu  MIAO Manqian  ZHAI Guoqing  GAO Kun 《大气科学进展》2006,23(3)

A modified version of the NCAR/RegCM2 has been developed at the National Climate Center (NCC), China Meteorological Administration, through a series of sensitivity experiments and multi-year simulations and hindcasts, with a special emphasis on the adequate choice of physical parameterization schemes suitable for the East Asian monsoon climate. This regional climate model is nested with the NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM to make an experimental seasonal prediction for China and East Asia. The four-year (2001 to 2004) prediction results are encouraging. This paper is the first part of a two-part paper, and it mainly describes the sensitivity study of the physical process parameterization represented in the model. The systematic errors produced by the different physical parameterization schemes such as the land surface processes, convective precipitation, cloud-radiation transfer process, boundary layer process and large-scale terrain features have been identified based on multi-year and extreme flooding event simulations. A number of comparative experiments has shown that the mass flux scheme (MFS) and Betts-Miller scheme (BM) for convective precipitation, the LPMI (land surface process model I) and LPMII (land surface process model Ⅱ) for the land surface process, the CCM3 radiation transfer scheme for cloud-radiation transfer processes, the TKE (turbulent kinetic energy) scheme for the boundary layer processes and the topography treatment schemes for the Tibetan Plateau are suitable for simulations and prediction of the East Asia monsoon climate in rainy seasons. Based on the above sensitivity study, a modified version of the RegCM2 (RegCM_NCC) has been set up for climate simulations and seasonal predictions.  相似文献   

区域气候模式对我国冬春季气温和降水预报评估          下载免费PDF全文

孙林海  艾孑兑秀  宋文玲  刘一鸣 《应用气象学报》2009,20(5):546-554

使用国家气候中心全球海气耦合模式嵌套区域气候模式 (RegCM_NCC) 对1983— 2002年冬季以及1984—2003年春季我国平均气温和降水进行了数值回报试验, 并对2003— 2007年进行实时预报。结果表明:区域气候模式20年冬、春季平均气温的回报与实况在分布形态上较为相似, 我国大部地区平均气温预报与实况接近; 模式回报的冬、春季降水量的分布形态与实况有较大差异, 全国大部地区模式回报降水量比实况偏多, 西南地区降水量误差最大。使用国家气候中心气候预测室的业务预报评分 (P) 和距平相关系数 (ACC) 等5个评估参数对模式的回报和预报进行了评估分析, 结果表明:该模式对我国冬、春季平均气温和降水具有一定的跨季度预报能力。大多数年份冬、春季平均气温的P评分在60以上, 冬、春季平均气温多年平均分别为66.4和67.8;大多数年份的冬、春季降水评分为60~75, 冬、春季降水多年平均分别为69.9和65.6。  相似文献   

基于海气耦合模式的山西省夏季降水统计降尺度预测研究     

张岳军  周静  韩照宇  郝智文  李芬  李淑娟 《气候与环境研究》2016,21(3):323-332

基于中国气象局国国家气候中心海气耦合模式(CGCM/NCC)预测产品和山西省50站夏季降水资料,利用典型因子回归的方法(CCA),建立了山西省夏季降水的统计降尺度预测模型。该预测模型选取了CGCM/NCC模式夏季500 h Pa高度场和海平面气压作为预测因子,分别选取了长江中下游地区和热带中东太平洋作为预报关键区。统计降尺度模型对2007~2014年山西省夏季降水的回算较模式原始结果有显著提高,除2008年外,空间距平相似系数(ACC)均通过了0.01的显著性检验,时间相关系数(TCC)在山西省大部分地区都有显著提高,最大可达0.6,降水预测(PS)评分在70分以上。检验结果显示,基于CCA降尺度方法建立的预测模型对山西省夏季降水模态预测的准确率较高且比较稳定,其预测效果远高于CGCM/NCC直接输出降水结果。  相似文献   

降尺度方法在中国不同区域夏季降水预测中的应用   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

顾伟宗  陈丽娟  李维京  陈德亮 《气象学报》2012,70(2):202-212

在中国降水气候分区的基础上,利用降尺度方法进行区域夏季降水预测(RSPP),预测模型建立的基础是寻找影响区域气候的关键因子。降尺度预测模型中使用的资料有国家气候中心海-气耦合模式(CGCM/NCC)回报资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和台站观测资料。为了避免年代际变化特征对季节尺度降水预测的影响,首先对CGCM/NCC模式输出资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、区域平均降水资料去除年代际线性变化趋势,即去除所有预报因子场和预报对象场的长期变化趋势。然后分别计算预报对象和模式资料的预报因子场以及再分析资料的预报因子场的相关系数,把相关系数值同时达到0.05显著性检验水平的区域平均环流特征作为预测因子,保证挑选出的预测因子既能反映实际大气中预测因子与预报对象的关系,同时又是海-气耦合模式预测的高技巧信息。利用最优子集回归作为转换函数的降尺度方法建立区域夏季降水预测模型。交叉检验和独立样本检验结果表明,文中设计的区域夏季降水预测模型对中国大部分地区的夏季降水趋势预测的准确率较高且比较稳定,其预测效果远高于CGCM/NCC直接输出降水结果。进一步对具有较高预测技巧的代表性区域的可预报性来源分析发现,物理意义明确且独立性强的预测因子有助于提高预测准确率。  相似文献   

区域气候模式对我国冬春季气温和降水预报评估   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

孙林海  艾税秀  宋文玲  刘一鸣 《应用气象学报》2009,20(5)

使用国家气候中心全球海气耦合模式嵌套区域气候模式(RegCM_NCC)对1983 2002年冬季以及1984-2003年春季我国平均气温和降水进行了数值回报试验,并对2003-2007年进行实时预报.结果表明:区域气候模式20年冬、春季平均气温的回报与实况在分布形态上较为相似,我国大部地区平均气温预报与实况接近;模式回报的冬、春季降水量的分布形态与实况有较大差异,全国大部地区模式回报降水量比实况偏多,西南地区降水量误差最大.使用国家气候中心气候预测室的业务预报评分(P)和距平相关系数(ACC)等5个评估参数对模式的回报和预报进行了评估分析,结果表明:该模式对我国冬、春季平均气温和降水具有一定的跨季度预报能力.大多数年份冬,春季平均气温的P评分在60以上,冬、春季平均气温多年平均分别为66.4和67.8;大多数年份的冬、春季降水评分为60～75,冬、春季降水多年平均分别为69.9和65.6.  相似文献   

Development of a Downscaling Method in China Regional Summer Precipitation Prediction   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

GU Weizong  CHEN Lijuan  LI Weijing  CHEN Deliang 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2011,25(3):303-315

A downscaling method taking into account of precipitation regionalization is developed and used in the regional summer precipitation prediction (RSPP) in China. The downscaling is realized by utilizing the optimal subset regression based on the hindcast data of the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Climate Model of National Climate Center (CGCM/NCC), the historical reanalysis data, and the observations. The data are detrended in order to remove the influence of the interannual variations on the selection of predictors for the RSPP. Optimal predictors are selected through calculation of anomaly correlation coe±cients (ACCs) twice to ensure that the high-skill areas of the CGCM/NCC are also those of observations, with the ACC value reaching the 0.05 significant level. One-year out cross-validation and independent sample tests indicate that the downscaling method is applicable in the prediction of summer precipitation anomaly across most of China with high and stable accuracy, and is much better than the direct CGCM/NCC prediction. The predictors used in the downscaling method for the RSPP are independent and have strong physical meanings, thus leading to the improvements in the prediction of regional precipitation anomalies.  相似文献