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1.
Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis over the western North Pacific(WNP) is analyzed using 23 CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models and reanalysis datasets. The models are evaluated according to TC genesis potential index(GPI). The spatial and temporal variations of the GPI are first calculated using three atmospheric reanalysis datasets(ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-1, and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-2). Spatial distributions of July–October-mean TC frequency based on the GPI from ERA-interim are more consistent with observed ones derived from IBTr ACS global TC data. So, the ERA-interim reanalysis dataset is used to examine the CMIP5 models in terms of reproducing GPI during the period 1982–2005. Although most models possess deficiencies in reproducing the spatial distribution of the GPI, their multimodel ensemble(MME) mean shows a reasonable climatological GPI pattern characterized by a high GPI zone along 20?N in the WNP. There was an upward trend of TC genesis frequency during 1982 to 1998, followed by a downward trend. Both MME results and reanalysis data can represent a robust increasing trend during 1982–1998, but the models cannot simulate the downward trend after 2000. Analysis based on future projection experiments shows that the GPI exhibits no significant change in the first half of the 21 st century, and then starts to decrease at the end of the 21 st century under the representative concentration pathway(RCP) 2.6 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the GPI shows an increasing trend in the vicinity of20?N, indicating more TCs could possibly be expected over the WNP under future global warming.  相似文献   

2.
Based on regular surface meteorological observations and NCEP/DOE reanalysis data, this study investigates the evolution of surface sensible heat(SH) over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau(CE-TP) under the recent global warming hiatus. The results reveal that the SH over the CE-TP presents a recovery since the slowdown of the global warming. The restored surface wind speed together with increased difference in ground-air temperature contribute to the recovery in SH.During the global warming hiatus, the persistent weakening wind speed is alleviated due to the variation of the meridional temperature gradient. Meanwhile, the ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature show a significant increasing trend in that period caused by the increased total cloud amount, especially at night. At nighttime, the increased total cloud cover reduces the surface effective radiation via a strengthening of atmospheric counter radiation and subsequently brings about a clear upward trend in ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature.Cloud–radiation feedback plays a significant role in the evolution of the surface temperature and even SH during the global warming hiatus. Consequently, besides the surface wind speed, the difference in ground-air temperature becomes another significant factor for the variation in SH since the slowdown of global warming, particularly at night.  相似文献   

3.
The diurnal surface temperature range(DTR) has become significantly smaller over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) but larger in southeastern China, despite the daily mean surface temperature having increased steadily in both areas during recent decades.Based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data covering 1979–2012, this study shows that the weakened DTR over TP is caused by stronger warming of daily minimum surface temperature(Tmin) and a weak cooling of the daily maximum surface temperature(Tmax); meanwhile, the enhanced DTR over southeastern China is mainly associated with a relatively stronger/weaker warming of Tmax/Tmin. A further quantitative analysis of DTR changes through a process-based decomposition method—the Coupled Surface–Atmosphere Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method(CFRAM)—indicates that changes in radiative processes are mainly responsible for the decreased DTR over the TP. In particular, the increased low-level cloud cover tends to induce the radiative cooling/warming during daytime/nighttime, and the increased water vapor helps to decrease the DTR through the stronger radiative warming during nighttime than daytime. Contributions from the changes in all radiative processes(over-2?C) are compensated for by those from the stronger decreased surface sensible heat flux during daytime than during nighttime(approximately 2.5?C), but are co-contributed by the changes in atmospheric dynamics(approximately-0.4?C) and the stronger increased latent heat flux during daytime(approximately-0.8?C). In contrast, the increased DTR over southeastern China is mainly contributed by the changes in cloud, water vapor and atmospheric dynamics. The changes in surface heat fluxes have resulted in a decrease in DTR over southeastern China.  相似文献   

4.
We analyzed the spatiotemporal variations in surface air temperature and key climate change indicators over the Tibetan Plateau during a common valid period from 1979 to 2018 to evaluate the performance of different datasets on various timescales. We used observations from 22 in-situ observation sites, the CRA-40/Land(CRA) reanalysis dataset, the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD), and the ERA-Interim(ERA) reanalysis dataset. The three datasets are spatially consistent with the in-situ observations, but slightly underestimate the annual mean surface air temperature. The daily mean surface air temperature estimated by the CRA, CMFD, and ERA datasets is closer to the in-situ observations after correction for elevation. The CMFD shows the best performance in simulating the annual mean surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau, followed by the CRA and ERA datasets with comparable performances. The CMFD is relatively accurate in simulating the daily mean surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau on an annual scale, whereas both the CRA and ERA datasets perform better in summer than in winter. The increasing trends in the annual mean surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau from 1979 to 2018 reflected by the CRA dataset and the CMFD are 0.5°C(10 yr)~(-1), similar to the in-situ observations, whereas the warming rate in the ERA dataset is only 0.3°C(10 yr)~(-1). The trends in the length of the growing season derived from the in-situ observations, the CRA, CMFD, and ERA datasets are 5.3, 4.8, 6.1, and 3.2 day(10 yr)~(-1), respectively. Our analyses suggest that both the CRA dataset and the CMFD perform better than the ERA dataset in modeling the changes in surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau.  相似文献   

5.
Climate Change in the Subtropical Jetstream during 1950–2009   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
A study of six decades(1950–2009) of reanalysis data reveals that the subtropical jetstream(STJ) of the Southern(Northern) Hemisphere between longitudes 0°E and 180°E has weakened(strengthened) during both the boreal winter(January,February) and summer(July, August) seasons. The temperature of the upper troposphere of the midlatitudes has a warming trend in the Southern Hemisphere and a cooling trend in the Northern Hemisphere. Correspondingly, the north–south temperature gradient in the upper troposphere has a decreasing trend in the Southern Hemisphere and an increasing trend in the Northern Hemisphere, which affects the strength of the STJ through the thermal wind relation. We devised a method of isotach analysis in intervals of 0.1 m s-1in vertical sections of hemispheric mean winds to study the climate change in the STJ core wind speed, and also core height and latitude. We found that the upper tropospheric cooling of the Asian mid-latitudes has a role in the strengthening of the STJ over Asia, while throughout the rest of the globe the upper troposphere has a warming trend that weakens the STJ. Available studies show that the mid-latitude cooling of the upper troposphere over Asia is caused by anthropogenic aerosols(particularly sulphate aerosols) and the warming over the rest of the global mid-latitude upper troposphere is due to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.  相似文献   

6.
Trends and uncertainties of surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)are evaluated by using observations at 100 meteorological stations during the period 1951–2013.The sampling error variances of gridded monthly data are estimated for every month and every grid box of data.The gridded data and their sampling error variances are used to calculate TP averages,their trends,and associated uncertainties.It is shown that large sampling error variances dominate northern and western TP,while small variances appear over southern and eastern TP.Every month from January to December has a positive linear trend during the study period.February has the largest trend of 0.34±0.18°C(10 yr)~(–1),and April the smallest at 0.15±0.11°C(10 yr)~(–1).The uncertainties decrease steadily with time,implying that they are not large enough to alter the TP warming trend.  相似文献   

7.
Recent studies have demonstrated a persistent decreasing trend in the spring sensible heat（SH） source over the Tibetan Plateau（TP） during the past three decades. By comparing simulations from nine state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation models（AGCMs） driven by historical forcing fields with both observational data and five reanalysis datasets, the authors found that the AGCMs are unable to reproduce the change in the SH flux over the TP. This deficiency arises because the observed decreasing trend in SH flux depends primarily on the change in surface wind speed according to the bulk formula, whereas in the models it is also influenced largely by changes in the land-air temperature difference related to the systematic cold bias. In addition, an obvious discrepancy exists in other aspects of the diabatic heating simulated by the models, suggesting that a significant improvement is required in the physical schemes associated with land surface processes and diabatic heating over the complicated topography.  相似文献   

8.
As the "Third Pole of the World," the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an important thermal forcing to the South Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and even the global atmospheric circulation. In this paper, surface heat fluxes from the ERA-Interim reanalysis data during March-October of 1979-2016 in the TP and its surrounding areas are examined and analyzed. The results are as follows.(1) From March to May (before the ASM onset), the main body of the TP is dominated by sensible heat flux, which increases rapidly with high (low) values in the west (east), while the change of latent heat flux is small but it increases with time.(2) From June to August (after the ASM onset), sensible heat flux over the TP decreases, while latent heat flux increases rapidly with high (low) values in the east (west).(3) From September to October (after the ASM withdrawal), sensible and latent heat fluxes are comparable to each other in strength, again with high (low) sensible heat flux in the west (east).(4) During 1979-2016, surface sensible heat flux in the whole TP shows a slightly downward trend, while latent heat flux shows an increasing trend. Specifically, in the western TP, sensible (latent) heat flux shows a weak decreasing (an increasing) trend;while in the eastern TP, sensible (latent) heat flux decreases (increases obviously). These variations are consistent with the observed warming and moistening in the TP region. The above results are useful for further analysis of the change of atmospheric heat sources and surface heat fluxes over the TP based on the data from the Third Tibetan Plateau Atmospheric Science Experiment (TIPEX-Ⅲ).  相似文献   

9.
A land surface reanalysis dataset covering the most recent decades is able to provide temporally consistent initial conditions for weather and climate models, and thus is crucial to verifying/improving numerical weather/climate forecasts/predictions. In this paper, we report the development of a 10-yr China Meteorological Administration(CMA) global Land surface ReAnalysis Interim dataset(CRA-Interim/Land; 2007–2016, 6-h intervals, approximately 34-km horizontal resolution). The dataset was produced and evaluated by using the Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS) and NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis(CFSR) global land surface reanalysis datasets, as well as in situ observations in China. The results show that the global spatial patterns and monthly variations of the CRA-Interim/Land, GLDAS, and CFSR climatology are highly consistent, while the soil moisture and temperature values of the CRA-Interim/Land dataset are in between those of the GLDAS and CFSR datasets. Compared with ground observations in China, CRA-Interim/Land soil moisture is comparable to or better than that of GLDAS and CFSR datasets for the 0–10-cm soil layer and has higher correlations and slightly lower root mean square errors(RMSE) for the 10–40-cm soil layer. However, CRA-Interim/Land shows negative biases in 10–40-cm soil moisture in Northeast China and north of central China. For ground temperature and the soil temperature in different layers,CRA-Interim/Land behaves better than the CFSR, especially in East and central China. CRA-Interim/Land has added value over the land components of CRA-Interim due to the introduction of global precipitation observations and improved soil/vegetation parameters. Therefore, this dataset is potentially a critical supplement to the CRA-Interim.Further evaluation of the CRA-Interim/Land, assimilation of near-surface atmospheric forcing variables, and extension of the current dataset to 40 yr(1979–2018) are in progress.  相似文献   

10.
Trends in precipitation are critical to water resources. Considerable uncertainty remains concerning the trends of regional precipitation in response to global warming and their controlling mechanisms. Here, we use an interannual difference method to derive trends of regional precipitation from GPCP(Global Precipitation Climatology Project) data and MERRA(ModernEra Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis in the near-global domain of 60?S–60?N during a major global warming period of 1979–2013. We find that trends of regional annual precipitation are primarily driven by changes in the top 30% heavy precipitation events, which in turn are controlled by changes in precipitable water in response to global warming, i.e., by thermodynamic processes. Significant drying trends are found in most parts of the U.S. and eastern Canada,the Middle East, and eastern South America, while significant increases in precipitation occur in northern Australia, southern Africa, western India and western China. In addition, as the climate warms there are extensive enhancements and expansions of the three major tropical precipitation centers–the Maritime Continent, Central America, and tropical Africa–leading to the observed widening of Hadley cells and a significant strengthening of the global hydrological cycle.  相似文献   

11.
The availability of satellite and reanalysis climate datasets and their applicability have been greatly promoted in hydro-climatic studies. However, such climatic products are still subject to considerable uncertainties and an evaluation of the products is necessary for applications in specific regions. This study aims to evaluate the reliability of nine gridded precipitation and temperature datasets against ground-based observations in the upper Tekeze River basin(UTB) of Ethiopia from 1982 to 2016. Precipitation, maximum temperature(T_(max)), minimum temperature(T_(min)), and mean temperature(T_(mean)) were evaluated at daily and monthly timescales. The results show that the best estimates of precipitation are from the Eart H2 Observe, WFDEI, and ERA-Interim reanalysis data Merged and Bias-corrected for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project(EWEMBI), and the Climate Hazards Group Infra Red Precipitation with Station data(CHIRPS) datasets. The percentage biases and correlation coefficients(CCs) are within ±15% and 0.5, respectively, for both EWEMBI and CHIRPS at the two timescales. All products underestimate the drought conditions indicated by the standardized precipitation index(SPI), while the EWEMBI and CHIRPS datasets show higher agreement with the observations than other datasets. The Tmean estimates produced by the ECMWF ReAnalysis version 5(ERA5) and the Climate Hazards Group Infra Red Temperature with Station data(CHIRTS) are the closest to the observations, with CCs of 0.65 and 0.55, respectively, at the daily timescale. The CHIRTS and EWEMBI datasets show better representations of Tmax(T_(min)), with CCs of 0.69(0.72) and 0.62(0.68), respectively,at the monthly timescale. The temperature extremes are better captured by the ERA5(T_(mean)), CHIRTS(T_(max)), and EWEMBI(T_(min)) datasets. The findings of this study provide useful information to select the most appropriate dataset for hydrometeorological studies in the UTB and could help to improve the regional representation of global datasets.  相似文献   

12.
Climate models project a positive Indian Ocean Dipole(p IOD)–like SST response in the tropical Indian Ocean to global warming. By employing the Community Earth System Model and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component(version 2 of the Parallel Ocean Program), this study investigates the similarities and differences of the formation mechanisms for the changes in the tropical Indian Ocean during the p IOD versus global warming. Results show that their formation processes and related seasonality are quite similar; in particular, wind–thermocline–SST feedback is the leading mechanism in producing the anomalous cooling over the eastern tropics in both cases. Some differences are also found, including the fact that the cooling effect of the vertical advection over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean is dominated by the anomalous vertical velocity during the p IOD but by the anomalous upper-ocean stratification under global warming. These findings are further examined through an analysis of the mixed layer heat budget.  相似文献   

13.
The aim of the present study was to identify multi-decadal variability （MDV） relative to the current centennial global warming trend in available observation data.The centennial global wanning trend was first identified in the global mean surface temperature （STgm） data.The MDV was identified based on three sets of climate variables,including sea surface temperature （SST）,ocean temperature from the surface to 700 m,and the NCEP and ERA40 reanalysis datasets,respectively.All variables were detrended and low-pass filtered.Through three independent EOF analyses of the filtered variables,all results consistently showed two dominant modes,with their respective temporal variability resembling the Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation （PDO/IPO） and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation （AMO）.The spatial structure of the PDO-like oscillation is characterized by an ENSO-like structure and hemispheric symmetric features.The structure associated with the AMO-like oscillation exhibits hemispheric asymmetric features with anomalous warm air over Eurasia and warm SST in the Atlantic and Pacific basin north of 10°S,and cold SST over the southern oceans.The Pacific and Atlantic MDV in upper-ocean temperature suggest that they are mutually linked.We also found that the PDO-like and AMO-like oscillations are almost equally important in global-scale MDV by EOF analyses.In the period 1975-2005,the evolution of the two oscillations has given rise to strong temperature trends and has contributed almost half of the STgm warming.Hereon,in the next decade,the two oscillations are expected to slow down the global warming trends.  相似文献   

14.
The CRA-Interim trial production of the global atmospheric reanalysis for 10 years from 2007 to 2016 is carried out by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) in 2017. The structural characteristics of the horizontal shear line over the Tibetan Plateau (TPHSL) based on the CRA-Interim datasets are examined by objectively identifying the shear line, and compared with the analysis results of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)the European Center (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA-Interim). The case occurred at 18UTC on July 5, 2016. The results show that both of the ERA-Interim and CRA-Interim datasets can well reveal the circulation background and the dynamic and thermal structure characteristics of TPHSL, and they have shown some similar features. The middle and high latitudes at 500 hPa are characterized by500hPa present the circulation situation of  相似文献   

15.
The Tibetan Plateau has substantial impacts on the weather and climate of the Northern Hemisphere,due in large part to the thermal effects of the plateau surface.Surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau is the most important parameter in determining these thermal effects.We present a method for verifying widely used reanalysis temperature products from NCEP-R2,ERA-Interim,and JRA-25 over the Tibetan Plateau,with the aim of obtaining a reliable picture of surface temperature and its changes over the plateau.Reanalysis data are validated against the topography elevation,satellite observations,and radiosonde data.ERA-Interim provides the most reliable estimates of Tibetan Plateau surface temperature among these three reanalyses.We therefore use this dataset to study the climatology and trends of surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau.ERA-Interim data indicate a dramatic warming over the Tibetan Plateau from 1979 to2010,with warming rates of 0.33℃ per decade in annual mean temperature,0.22℃ per decade in summer and0.47℃ per decade in winter mean temperatures.Comparison with the results of previous studies suggests that surface warming over the Tibetan Plateau has accelerated during the past 30 years.This warming is distributed heterogeneously across the Tibetan Plateau,possibly due to topographic effects.  相似文献   

16.
This study investigates the structure and propagation of intraseasonal sea surface temperature(SST) variability in the South China Sea(SCS) on the 30–60-day timescale during boreal summer(May–September). TRMM-based SST, GODAS oceanic reanalysis and ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis datasets from 1998 to 2013 are used to examine quantitatively the atmospheric thermodynamic and oceanic dynamic mechanisms responsible for its formation. Power spectra show that the 30–60-day SST variability is predominant, accounting for 60% of the variance of the 10–90-day variability over most of the SCS. Composite analyses demonstrate that the 30–60-day SST variability is characterized by the alternate occurrence of basin-wide positive and negative SST anomalies in the SCS, with positive(negative) SST anomalies accompanied by anomalous northeasterlies(southwesterlies). The transition and expansion of SST anomalies are driven by the monsoonal trough–ridge seesaw pattern that migrates northward from the equator to the northern SCS. Quantitative diagnosis of the composite mixed-layer heat budgets shows that, within a strong 30–60-day cycle, the atmospheric thermal forcing is indeed a dominant factor, with the mixed-layer net heat flux(MNHF) contributing around 60% of the total SST tendency, while vertical entrainment contributes more than 30%. However, the entrainment-induced SST tendency is sometimes as large as the MNHF-induced component, implying that ocean processes are sometimes as important as surface fluxes in generating the30–60-day SST variability in the SCS.  相似文献   

17.
This paper uses two subsets of ensemble historical-Nat simulations and pi-Control simulations from CMIP5 as well as observational/reanalysis datasets to investigate responses of the tropical Pacific to the 11-yr solar cycle. A statistically significant 11-yr solar signal is found in the upper-ocean layers above the thermocline and tropospheric circulations. A warming response initially appears in the upper layers of the central equatorial Pacific in the solar maximum years in observations, then increases and shifts into the eastern Pacific at lagged 1–3 yr. Meanwhile, an anomalous updraft arises over the western equatorial Pacific and shifts eastwards in the following years with anomalous subsidence over the Maritime Continent. These lagged responses are confirmed by the historical-Nat simulations, except that the initial signal is located more to the west and all the responses are weaker than the observed. A simplified mixed-layer heat budget analysis based on the historical-Nat simulations suggests that the atmospheric forcing, especially the shortwave radiation, is the major contributor to the initial warming response, and the ocean heat transport effect is responsible for the eastward displacement of the lagged warming responses. In the solar maximum years, the zonal ocean temperature gradient in the western–central Pacific is reduced by the initial warming, and anomalous westerly winds appear over the western equatorial Pacific and extend into the eastern Pacific during the lagged years.These anomalous westerly winds reduce the wind-driven ocean dynamical transport, resulting in the initial warming in the central equatorial Pacific being amplified and the surface warming shifting eastward during the lagged 1–3 yr.  相似文献   

18.
Ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD) and least squares linear fitting(LSLF) are applied to estimate the historical trends of surface air temperature(SAT) from observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) simulations during the period 1901–2005. The magnitudes of trends estimated by the two approaches are comparable. The trend calculated by the EEMD approach is larger than that by the LSLF approach in most(23/27) of the models during 1901–2005. During the slow warming period, the EEMD trend is smaller than the LSLF trend. The rootmean-square errors(RMSEs) between the raw and reconstructed times series by the LSLF approach are larger than those by the EEMD trend component and multi-decadal variability components during 1901–2005 in most of the models and observations. During 1901–70(or 1971–2005), the RMSEs between the raw and reconstructed times series by LSLF are larger than those by the EEMD trend component. In this sense, the EEMD trend is a better choice to obtain the climate trends in observations and CMIP5 models, especially for short time periods. This is because the trend estimated by LSLF cannot capture the internal variability and the cooling in some years. The estimated global warming rates(trend) are consistently larger(smaller) than those from observations in 11 of 27 CMIP5 models during 1901–2005 in the slow and rapid warming periods. This implies these 11 models have consistent responses to greenhouse gases for any period.  相似文献   

19.
In this study,the ability of dynamical downscaling for reduction of artificial climate trends in global reanalysis is tested in China.Dynamical downscaling is performed using a 60-km horizontal resolution Regional Integrated Environmental Model System (RIEMS) forced by the NCEP-Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis II (NCEP-2).The results show that this regional climate model (RCM) can not only produce dynamically consistent fine scale fields of atmosphere and land surface in the regional domain,but it also has the ability to minimize artificial climate trends existing in the global reanalysis to a certain extent.As compared to the observed 2-meter temperature anomaly averaged across China,our model can simulate the observed inter-annual variation and variability as well as reduce artificial climate trends in the reanalysis by approximately 0.10 C decade 1 from 1980 to 2007.The RIEMS can effectively reduce artificial trends in global reanalysis for areas in western China,especially for regions with high altitude mountains and deserts,as well as introduce some new spurious changes in other local regions.The model simulations overestimated observed winter trends for most areas in eastern China with the exception of the Tibetan Plateau,and it greatly overestimated observed summer trends in the Sichuan Basin located in southwest China.This implies that the dynamical downscaling of RCM for long-term trends has certain seasonal and regional dependencies due to imperfect physical processes and parameterizations.  相似文献   

20.
The impact of warming and wetting on the ecological environment of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (TP) under the background of climate change has been a concern of the global scientific community. In this paper, the optimized interpolation variational correction approach is adopted for the analysis of monthly high-resolution satellite precipitation products and observations from meteorological stations during the past 20 years. As a result, the corrected precipitation products can not only supplement the “blank area” of precipitation observation stations on the TP, but also improve the accuracy of the original satellite precipitation products. The precipitation over the TP shows different spatial changes in the vegetation growing season, known as the time from May to September. The precipitation in the vegetation growing season and leaf area index (LAI) in the following month show a similar change pattern, indicating a “one-month lag” response of LAI to precipitation on the TP. Further analysis illustrates the influence of water vapor transport driven by the Asian summer monsoon. Water vapor derived from trans-equatorial air flows across the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea is strengthened, leading to the increase of precipitation in the central and northern TP, where the trend of warming and wetting and the increase of vegetation tend to be more obvious. By contrast, as a result of the weakening trend of water vapor transport in the middle and low levels in southern TP, the precipitation decreases, and the LAI shows a downtrend, which inhibits the warming and wetting ecological environment in this area.  相似文献   

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