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1.
Abstract This study reports on the implementation of an interactive mixed‐layer/thermodynamic‐ice lake model coupled with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). For this application the CRCM, which uses a grid mesh of 45 km on a polar stereographic projection, 10 vertical levels, and a timestep of 15 min, is nested with the second generation Canadian General Circulation Model (GCM) simulated output. A numerical simulation of the climate of eastern North America, including the Laurentian Great Lakes, is then performed in order to evaluate the coupled model. The lakes are represented by a “mixed layer” model to simulate the evolution of the surface water temperature, and a thermodynamic ice model to simulate evolution of the ice cover. The mixed‐layer depth is allowed to vary spatially. Lake‐ice leads are parametrized as a function of ice thickness based on observations. Results from a 5‐year integration show that the coupled CRCM/lake model is capable of simulating the seasonal evolution of surface temperature and ice cover in the Great Lakes. When compared with lake climatology, the simulated mean surface water temperature agrees within 0.12°C on average. The seasonal evolution of the lake‐ice cover is realistic but the model tends to underestimate the monthly mean ice concentration on average. The simulated winter lake‐induced precipitation is also shown, and snow accumulation patterns on downwind shores of the lakes are found to be realistic when compared with observations. 相似文献
2.
This paper represents an attempt to combine the output of several models that deal with future climatic, hydrologic and economic conditions in the Great Lakes and makes some predictions about the possible impact of one scenario of 2 × CO2 climate on Great Lakes shipping. It is realized that there is a great deal of uncertainty in all the models and that improvements are continually being made. Data from a General Circulation Model of future temperature and precipitation in the Great Lakes basin, a Great Lakes levels and flows model from the Canada Centre for Inland Waters and an International Joint Commision's Great Lakes economic model modified by the University of Wisconsin were used. The 1900–1976 period of lake levels and flows was used. The hydrologic model indicated that future mean lake levels may be reduced by one-half meter, and that the extreme low levels of the mid 1960's could occur 77% of the time in the future. No ice cover is predicted for any lake except Erie, permitting an eleven month shipping season. Five scenarios of future impact on shipping were evaluated. It was found that mean annual shipping costs may increase by 30% and the frequency of years when costs exceed those of the period of low lake levels (1963–65) could rise to 97%. Possible policy options in a future with climatically induced lower lake levels could include regulation to keep levels artificially high by diversions into the system, or increased dredging of the connecting channels. 相似文献
3.
Recent Trends In Laurentian Great Lakes Ice Cover 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
A 39-winter (1963–2001) record of annual maximum ice concentration (AMIC), the maximum fraction of lake surface area covered by ice each year, is analyzed for each Great Lake. Lake Erie has the largest median AMIC (94%) followed by Lakes Superior (80%), Huron(63%), Michigan (33%), and Ontario (21%). The frequency distributionof AMICs is negatively skewed for Lakes Superior and Erie and positively skewed for Lakes Michigan and Ontario. Temporal and spatial patterns of typical and extreme AMICs is presented within the context of long-term average air temperatures and lake bathymetry. The variation of spatially averaged ice concentration with discrete depth ranges are discussed for each lake for the upper and lower end of the typical range of AMIC values. In general, ice concentration decreases with increasing depth ranges for a given winter. A decrease in the gradient of ice concentration with depths was also observed with an increase in the AMIC from winter 1983 to winter 1984. A temporal trend in the AMICs supports the hypothesis of three ice cover regimes over the past 39 winters. Approximately 44% of the highest quartile (10 highest) AMICs for the Great Lakes occurred during the 6-winter period:1977–1982 providing evidence of a higher ice cover regime during thisperiod relative to the 14 winters before them (1963–1976) and the 19 winters after them (1983–2001). Winter 1998 established new low AMIC extremes,and the AMIC averaged over the 1998–2001 winters is the lowest for theperiod of record on four of the five Great Lakes. These recent trends taken together are noteworthy as they may be harbingers of a period of even lower AMICs in the 21st Century. 相似文献
4.
Raymond A. Assel 《Climatic change》1991,18(4):377-395
Statistical ice cover models were used to project daily mean basin ice cover and annual ice cover duration for Lakes Superior and Erie. Models were applied to a 1951–80 base period and to three 30-year steady double carbon dioxide (2 × CO2) scenarios produced by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), and the Oregon State University (OSU) general circulation models. Ice cover estimates were made for the West, Central, and East Basins of Lake Erie and for the West, East, and Whitefish Bay Basins of Lake Superior. Average ice cover duration for the 1951– 80 base period ranged from 13 to 16 weeks for individual lake basins. Reductions in average ice cover duration under the three 2 × CO2 scenarios for individual lake basins ranged from 5 to 12 weeks for the OSU scenario, 8 to 13 weeks for the GISS scenario, and 11 to 13 weeks for GFDL scenario. Winters without ice formation become common for Lake Superior under the GFDL scenario and under all three 2 × CO2 scenarios for the Central and East Basins of Lake Erie. During an average 2 × CO2 winter, ice cover would be limited to the shallow areas of Lakes Erie and Superior. Because of uncertainties in the ice cover models, the results given here represent only a first approximation and are likely to represent an upper limit of the extent and duration of ice cover under the climate change projected by the three 2 × CO2scenarios. Notwithstanding these limitations, ice cover projected by the 2 × CO2 scenarios provides a preliminary assessment of the potential sensitivity of the Great Lakes ice cover to global warming. Potential environmental and socioeconomic impacts of a 2 × CO2 warming include year-round navigation, change in abundance of some fish species in the Great Lakes, discontinuation or reduction of winter recreational activities, and an increase in winter lake evaporation. 相似文献
5.
Andrew D. Gronewold Vincent Fortin Brent Lofgren Anne Clites Craig A. Stow Frank Quinn 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):697-711
The North American Laurentian Great Lakes hold nearly 20 % of the earth’s unfrozen fresh surface water and have a length of coastline, and a coastal population, comparable to frequently-studied marine coasts. The surface water elevations of the Great Lakes, in particular, are an ideal metric for understanding impacts of climate change on large hydrologic systems, and for assessing adaption measures for absorbing those impacts. In light of the importance of the Great Lakes to the North American and global economies, the Great Lakes and the surrounding region also serve as an important benchmark for hydroclimate research, and offer an example of successful adaptive management under changing climate conditions. Here, we communicate some of the important lessons to be learned from the Great Lakes by examining how the coastline, water level, and water budget dynamics of the Great Lakes relate to other large coastal systems, along with implications for water resource management strategies and climate scenario-derived projections of future conditions. This improved understanding fills a critical gap in freshwater and marine global coastal research. 相似文献
6.
Transposed Climates for Study of Water Supply Variability on the Laurentian Great Lakes 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Kenneth E. Kunkel Stanley A. Changnon Thomas E. Croley II Frank H. Quinn 《Climatic change》1998,38(4):387-404
Hydrological models of the Great Lakes basin were used to study the sensitivity of Great Lakes water supplies to climate warming by driving them with meteorological data from four U.S. climate zones that were transposed to the basin. Widely different existing climates were selected for transposition in order to identify thresholds of change where major impacts on water supplies begin to occur and whether there are non-linear responses in the system. The climate zones each consist of 43 years of daily temperature and precipitation data for 1,000 or more stations and daily evaporation-related variables (temperature, wind speed, humidity, cloud cover) for approximately 20–35 stations. A key characteristic of these selected climates was much larger variability in inter-annual precipitation than currently experienced over the Great Lakes. Climate data were adjusted to simulate lake effects; however, a comparison of hydrologic results with and without lake effects showed that there was only minor effects on water supplies. 相似文献
7.
Frank Millerd 《Climatic change》2011,104(3-4):629-652
The higher temperatures of climate change may result in a fall in Great Lakes water levels. For vessels carrying imports into and exports out of the Great Lakes lower lake levels will lead to restrictions on vessel drafts and reductions in vessel cargos, increasing the number of trips and the cost of moving cargo. Estimates of these impacts are derived from simulations of a recent year??s international cargo movements, comparing a base case with no climate change to various climate change scenarios. The impacts vary from a 5% increase in vessel variable operating costs for a climate change scenario representing the possible climate in 2030 to over 22% for a scenario representing a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Impacts vary by commodity and route. For years of naturally occurring low water the impacts are up to 13% higher for even the most moderate climate change scenario. Climate change may also result in a shorter time of ice cover leading to an extension of the navigation season. Climate change is also expected to increase the threat of damage from aquatic invasive species, possibly leading to further requirements for ships to undertake preventive measures. 相似文献
8.
V. V. Asmus E. V. Vasilenko V. V. Zatyagalova N. P. Ivanova V. A. Krovotyntsev A. A. Maksimov I. S. Trenina 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2018,43(10):686-696
A number of technologies have been developed in the Planeta Research Center for Space Hydrometeorology to provide the satellite monitoring of sea ice cover and water parameters for the Caspian Sea. These technologies produce maps of sea ice, sea ice drift, tracking of near-surface water fluxes, automated classification of ice and water objects, surface wind, and sea surface temperature. Satellite-based products are used for operational hydrometeorology and climate studies of the Caspian Sea environment. A specialized web service for the preparation and comprehensive analysis of satellite data on hydrometeorological and ice conditions in the Caspian Sea was developed to provide information on ice cover characteristics, surface wind, and sea surface temperature. 相似文献
9.
Based on the primitive equations, a one-level model is described for computing surface winds under the meso-scale influences of orography, friction and heating. The effects of atmospheric stability and land-water contrasts are examined in detail. Results of testing the model with data collected during the International Field Year for the Great Lakes (IFYGL) in 1972 are given. The model is able to simulate land and lake breezes as well as meso-scale effects due to gradients in surface water temperature. Compared to simple methods of computing surface winds, use of the model reduces the vector error in estimates of surface winds by about 1.25 m s–1 on the average. 相似文献
10.
Burghard Brümmer Birgit Busack Heinrich Hoeber Gottfried Kruspe 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1994,68(1-2):75-108
Observations made on 8 and 9 May 1988 by aircraft and two ships in and around the marginal ice zone of the Fram Strait during on-ice air flow under cloudy and cloud-free conditions are presented.The thermodynamic modification of the air mass moving from the open water to the ice over horizontal distances of 100–300 km is only a few tenth of a degree for temperature and a few tenth of a gram per kilogram for specific humidity. This is due to the small temperature differences between sea and ice surfaces. During the day, the ice surface is even warmer than the sea surface. The stably stratified 200–400 m deep boundary layer is often topped by a moisture inversion leading to downward fluxes of sensible as well as latent heat.The radiation and energy balance at the surface are measured as functions of ice cover, cloud cover and sun elevation angle. The net radiationR
Nis the dominating term of the energy budget. During the day, the difference ofR
Nbetween clear and overcast sky is only a few W/m2 over ice, but 100–200 W/m2 over water. During the night,R
Nover ice is more sensitive to cloud cover.The kinematic structure is characterized by strong shears of the longitudinal and the transversal wind component. The profile of the latter one shows an inflection point near the top of the boundary layer. Dynamically-driven roll circulations are numerically separated from the mean flow. The secondary flow patterns have wavelengths of about 1 km and contribute substantially to the total variances and covariances. 相似文献
11.
Abstract The sensitivity of the annual cycle of ice cover in Baffin Bay to short‐wave radiation is investigated. The Princeton Ocean Model (POM) is used and is coupled with a multi‐category, dynamic‐thermodynamic sea‐ice model in which the surface energy balance governs the growth rates of ice of varying thickness. During spring and summer the short‐wave radiation flux dominates other surface heat fluxes and thus has the greatest effect on the ice melt. The sensitivity of model results to short‐wave radiation is tested using several, commonly used, shortwave parameterizations under climatological, as well as short‐term, atmospheric forcing. The focus of this paper is short‐term and annual variability. It is shown that simulated ice cover is sensitive to the short‐wave radiation formulation during the melting phase. For the Baffin Bay simulation, the differences in the resulting ice area and volume, integrated from May to November, can be as large as 45% and 70%, respectively. The parameterization of the effect of cloud cover on the short‐wave radiation can result in the sea‐ice area and volume changes reaching 20% and 30%, respectively. The variation of the cloud amount represents cloud data error, and has a relatively small effect (less then ±4%) on the simulated ice conditions. This is due to the fact that the effect of cloud cover on the short‐wave radiation flux is largely compensated for by its effect on the net near‐surface long‐wave radiation flux. 相似文献
12.
The BALTEX Integrated Model System (BALTIMOS) coupled atmosphere ocean model was compared to passive microwave observations of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E). Emphasis was put on quantifying the uncertainties associated with the different variables based on data screening both in the model and observations. Monthly means of three atmospheric parameters, as well as sea surface temperature, were compared for a period of 1 year. Sea ice extent was also derived from AMSR-E and compared to the model data on a daily basis. It is shown that the accuracy of the comparisons on a monthly mean basis is limited by precipitation screening. Out of the three atmospheric parameters, surface wind speed and water vapor column amount agree with the model data to within the accuracy of the comparison. The vertically integrated cloud liquid water content diagnosed from BALTIMOS is systematically higher than the liquid water content derived from satellite, even if potential systematic errors are accounted for. In terms of coupling, the two most relevant variables discussed are sea surface temperature and sea ice extent. The temporal extent of sea ice in the investigation area is well represented, as are the periods of the main growing and decay periods. The total sea ice cover appears to be underestimated by BALTIMOS, especially in the peak season between January and the beginning of March. The amplitude of the annual cycle of sea surface temperature in BALTIMOS appears to be too weak compared to the observations, leading to too cold sea surface temperatures in summer and too warm sea surface temperatures in winter. This might also partially explain the underestimation of sea ice cover by BALTIMOS. 相似文献
13.
Abstract The steady, coupled ice‐ocean circulation model of Willmott and Mysak (1989) for a meridional channel is applied to the Labrador Sea for the winter season. The model consists of a thermodynamic reduced‐gravity ocean combined with a variable thickness ice cover that is in thermal equilibrium. Upon specifying the forcing fields of surface air temperature, wind stress and water temperature along the open southern boundary, the winter climatological ice‐edge position, ice thickness, ocean circulation and temperature fields are determined in the channel domain. The sensitivity of the results to the various model parameters is examined. In particular, the optimum heat exchange coefficients for the interfaces of air‐water, ice‐water and air‐ice are found. The model ice‐edge position compares favourably with the 50% winter climatological ice concentration isoline obtained from an analysis of 32 years (1953–84) of sea‐ice concentration data. The simulations of the ocean temperature and ice thickness are also quite realistic according to the observed records available. The model is also applied to two specific winters (1981 and 1983) during which anomalous sea‐ice and weather conditions prevailed in the Labrador Sea. 相似文献
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15.
Great Lakes Hydrology Under Transposed Climates 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Thomas E. Croley II Frank H. Quinn Kenneth E. Kunkel Stanley a. Changnon 《Climatic change》1998,38(4):405-433
Historical climates, based on 43 years of daily data from areas south and southwest of the Great Lakes, were used to examine the hydrological response of the Great Lakes to warmer climates. The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory used their conceptual models for simulating moisture storages in, and runoff from, the 121 watersheds draining into the Great Lakes, over-lake precipitation into each lake, and the heat storages in, and evaporation from, each lake. This transposition of actual climates incorporates natural changes in variability and timing within the existing climate; this is not true for General Circulation Model-generated corrections applied to existing historical data in many other impact studies. The transposed climates lead to higher and more variable over-land evapotranspiration and lower soil moisture and runoff with earlier runoff peaks since the snow pack is reduced up to 100%. Water temperatures increase and peak earlier. Heat resident in the deep lakes increases throughout the year. Buoyancy-driven water column turnover frequency drops and lake evaporation increases and spreads more throughout the annual cycle. The response of runoff to temperature and precipitation changes is coherent among the lakes and varies quasi-linearly over a wide range of temperature changes, some well beyond the range of current GCM predictions for doubled CO2 conditions. 相似文献
16.
利用青海省甘德两次降雪过程的微气象观测数据,探讨了两场降雪过程雪深、雪密度、雪中含冰量、雪中含水量和雪面温度的变化情况,分析了地表反照率与雪密度、雪中含冰量及雪中含水量的关系,结合降雪过程近地面温、湿、风廓线特征分析了积雪对近地面温、湿、风梯度的影响。结果表明:积雪覆盖会导致地表反照率显著增加,降雪过后正午时地表反照率可高达0.8～0.9。随着积雪的消融,地表反照率逐渐减小;积雪反照率与雪密度和雪中含冰量呈正相关,与雪中含水量呈负相关;地表积雪覆盖会导致近地面温度梯度绝对值减小,相对湿度梯度绝对值在凌晨减小、午后增大,地表积雪覆盖对近地面风速梯度变化并无特定的影响。 相似文献
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19.
《Global Environmental Change》2001,11(3):231-245
Climate change poses significant challenges for the Canadian water sector. This paper discusses issues relating to the selection of proactive, planned adaptation measures for the near term (next decade). A set of selection criteria is offered, and these are used in three cases to illustrate how stakeholders can identify measures appropriate for the near term. Cases include municipal water supply in the Grand River basin, Ontario; irrigation in southern Alberta; and commercial navigation on the Great Lakes. In all three cases, it is possible to identify adaptations to climate change that also represent appropriate responses to existing conditions; these should be pursued first. 相似文献
20.
Abstract We have made a preliminary study of cloud‐to‐ground lightning over southern Ontario and the adjoining Great Lakes region. The lightning data set, using magnetic direction finding, is sufficiently accurate to study lightning climatology. Cloud‐to‐ground flash totals have been found for the three warm seasons 1989–91. A large variation in flash total, lightning‐day frequency and number of high flash density storms occurs over the area, with the maximum in southwestern Ontario. The area of the maximum also has a strong diurnal cycle and relatively few positive flashes. Several physical causes may contribute to this. Lake areas usually have slightly fewer flashes than nearby land areas and warm water usually has more flashes than cold water. The Great Lakes do produce more lightning than ocean areas. Convergence lines of lake breezes and other lake circulations can, however, be sites for storms with intense lightning. High surface temperature and moisture leads to an increase in lightning generation. Over land, upslope flow increases lightning‐producing storms and downslope flow decreases them. High flash density storms may be favoured by smooth rather than rough ground, and by open farmland rather than forest. On the other hand, there does not seem to be a clear urban effect increasing lightning in the Great Lakes 相似文献