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遗传神经网络释用气候模式预测产品的试验研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
从业务需求出发,提出了面向气候模式产品释用的神经网络。选用主分量作为网络的输入和输出,大大减少了其节点数,重点突出了大尺度影响变化关系,提高了实际预测的稳定性;用全局寻优的遗传算法取代经典BP算法,为高质量的网络学习训练提供了保证;针对实际设计代价函数,保证了网络学习训练能适应气候模式产品释用的基本要求,学习目的更明确,针对性更强。分别以夏季（6～8月）NCEP／NCAR500 hPa高度场、国家气候中心海气耦合模式500hPa高度预测场主分量为外界输入信号,同期中国降水场、华中区域降水场主分量为网络输出信号,进行了拟合预测和独立预测试验。结果表明：用模式500hPa高度预测场主分量为外界输入信号,网络输出（降水场主分量）反演的中国、华中地区降水场预测距平与实况同号率,有可能接近用NCEP／NCAR500 hPa高度场主分量为外界输入信号相当的技巧水平。 相似文献
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采用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和T63谱模式月动力延伸预报产品资料,对200、500hPa高度场及200hPa、700hPaU、V风场进行相关系数、距平、距平同号率、距平相关系数的分析,得出如下结论:月动力延伸预报产品对极涡、南亚高压、副热带高压预报能力较强,夏季副热带系统预报偏强,西风带系统预报偏弱;冬季西风带系统预报偏强,副热带系统预报偏弱。西风带和副热带系统的距平误差基本反映出影响我国年季气候变化主导系统的进退及预报误差。 相似文献
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夏季西太平洋副热带高压的客观定量化预测及其对汛期降水的指示 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
基于动力统计相似预报原理,将模式误差动力统计预报方案应用于西太平洋副热带高压的客观定量化预测,通过交叉检验距平相关系数,筛选出对副热带高压区域的500 hPa高度场模式预报结果订正较好的因子作为前期关键因子集.对2003-2010年的副热带高压区域的500 hPa高度场进行了回报检验,结果显示该方案在数值模式预报结果基础上有了进一步提高,显示出较高的预测水平.在此基础上,从高度场预测结果中提取出与中国降水关系最为密切的两个典型副热带高压特征指数(脊线指数与西伸脊点指数),将其投影在二维平面上,并根据不同类型的副热带高压特征下对应的雨型分类特征得到预报年副热带高压所属类型下中国夏季降水的分布类型,多年检验结果表明,预测的投影类型所对应的降水合成分布与实况的降水具有较好的一致性,进一步验证此种副热带高压与雨型分类的合理性,达到通过副热带高压的定量化预测对夏季的旱涝分布形式进行预测的目的,为进一步提高汛期降水预测水平提供一种可能的思路. 相似文献
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1998年夏季500hPa行星尺度环流系统对长江流域“二度梅”的影响 总被引：3，自引：4，他引：3
利用NCEP／NCAR1998年5－8月逐日500hPa高度场再分析资料及中国国家气象中心整编的同时段全国160站降水资料，就1998年夏季500hPa行星尺度环流系统对长江流域“二度梅”的影响进行了深入研究。结果发现，鄂霍次克海附近阻塞高压加强（减弱）和副热带西太平洋高压西部强度减弱（加强）的反位相变化是造成长江中下游和东北大部分地区的降水增加（减少）的重要原因。 相似文献
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通过对1983—2002年国家气候中心NCC_CGCM季节预报模式的2月初始场的5个预测场 (500 hPa高度场,200 hPa经向风、纬向风场,850 hPa经向风、纬向风场) 与NCEP实况场的相关检验,指出模式预测与实况有一定差距,但也存在预报效果好的区域,其中预报效果最好的是200 hPa和850 hPa纬向风场,正相关达到95%信度的点数最多;500 hPa高度场正相关达到95%信度的点数最少;利用模式预报效果好的区域的预测值,对2003—2007年长江中下游区域夏季降水指数进行释用,预报准确率达到80%;对比模式在该地区的降水预报以及仅用模式高度场的解释预报发现,用挑选有用信息后的预报效果更好。该方法在全国其他14个区夏季降水的释用中,江南区和内蒙古区预报准确率也可达到80%。 相似文献
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通过对1983-2002年国家气候中心NCC_CGCM季节预报模式的2月初始场的5个预测场(500 hPa高度场,200 hPa经向风、纬向风场,850 hPa经向风、纬向风场)与NCEP实况场的相关检验,指出模式预测与实况有一定差距,但也存在预报效果好的区域,其中预报效果最好的是200 hPa和850 hPa纬向风场,正相关达到95%信度的点数最多;500 hPa高度场正相关达到95%信度的点数最少;利用模式预报效果好的区域的预测值,对2003-2007年长江中下游区域夏季降水指数进行释用,预报准确率达到80%;对比模式在该地区的降水预报以及仅用模式高度场的解释预报发现,用挑选有用信息后的预报效果更好.该方法在全国其他14个区夏季降水的释用中,江南区和内蒙古区预报准确率也可达到80%. 相似文献
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江苏夏季旱涝环流演变特征分析 总被引：9，自引：7，他引：2
利用NCEP/NCAR OLR月资料和北半球500 hPa逐月高度场距平格点资料,讨论江苏夏季旱涝天气气候的环流特征.研究表明:菲律宾以西太平洋暖池区OLR低值区值强弱直接影响江苏夏季降水,OLR值越低,该区辐合越强,则其北部副热带高压偏强,有利于副高的北抬和西伸,使副高北侧的雨带偏东偏北,江苏易偏旱;反之江苏易偏涝.500 hPa在东亚地区南北呈" 、-、 "的纬向分布,中高纬度乌拉尔山和鄂霍茨克海地区夏季500 hPa高度距平场为明显的正距平区,在该地区形成双阻或单阻有利于形势的稳定,使降水持续,江苏夏季降水偏多. 相似文献
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利用1991-2011年黄淮地区夏季降水、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和国家气候中心第2代动力气候模式（BCC_CSM1.1m）夏季回报结果,研究黄淮地区夏季降水降尺度预测模型和可预报性来源。诊断发现,黄淮地区夏季降水与同期南亚高压、乌拉尔山附近阻塞高压、西风急流、西太平洋赤道上空200 hPa纬向风场呈明显正相关。分析BCC_CSM1.1m对夏季环流的回报结果发现,模式对200 hPa和500 hPa位势高度场、200 hPa纬向风场和850 hPa经向风场上影响黄淮地区夏季降水的部分关键区域有较好的模拟能力。利用模式预报技巧较高且对黄淮地区夏季降水的影响有物理含义的环流特征作为预测因子,对比预测因子进行独立性筛选前后分别建立的降尺度预测模型发现,黄淮地区夏季降水预测与实况的距平符号一致率由61%提高到72%。预测技巧来源分析发现,降尺度预测能力与BCC_CSM1.1m对影响黄淮地区夏季降水的3个关键因子乌拉尔山附近环流、南亚高压、西太平洋赤道上空西风强弱的预测技巧密切相关,尤其是模式对西太平洋赤道上空西风的模拟能力起到决定性作用。 相似文献
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应用1959—2008年夏季（6—8月）NCEP/NCAR月平均500 hPa高度场、海表温度再分析资料及ERA-40气候指数、国家气候中心74项环流特征量等资料,经普查得到6个影响陕西夏季降水的主要因子,分别是西太平洋副热带高压强度指数、赤道平流层准两年振荡指数、低层越赤道气流指数、大气角动量指数、赤道太平洋海温、赤道500 hPa高度。将这些主要因子的年际增量、距平与陕西夏季降水的相关性及其所建立的预测模型进行对比分析,结果表明:因子年际增量具有明显的信号放大作用,增量因子的相关系数平均比距平相关系数高0.1左右;主要因子和夏季降水存在各自的长周期变化,造成其相关性不稳定,经过增量变换后,可以有效滤掉长周期变化,提高因子质量和预测模型的稳定性。前一年秋季赤道中东太平洋海温增量分布与陕西夏季降水相关密切,当该区域出现正增量分布时,当年夏季（6—8月）700 hPa西太平洋副热带高压位置偏北、偏西,形成陕西夏季多雨的环流形势;反之,当该区域出现负增量分布时,当年夏季700 hPa副热带高压位置异常偏东,形成陕西干旱少雨的环流形势。 相似文献
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Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d. 相似文献
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Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region. 相似文献
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Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms. 相似文献
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The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics. 相似文献
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《大气和海洋科学快报》2013,(1):67
正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.SUBMISSIONAll submitted 相似文献
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<正>With the support of specialized funds for national science institutions,the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration set up in October 2008 an experiment base for marine meteorology and a number of observation systems for the coastal boundary layer,air-sea flux,marine environmental elements,and basic meteorological elements at Bohe town,Maoming city,Guangdong province,in the northern part of the South China Sea. 相似文献
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《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,7(6):F0003-F0003
AIMS AND SCOPE
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
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《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,(5):F0003-F0003
AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） pub- lishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmos- phere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
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《大气和海洋科学快报》2012,(3):273
正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences 相似文献