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M. J. Salinger J. D. Bell K. Evans A. J. Hobday V. Allain K. Brander P. Dexter D. E. Harrison A. B. Hollowed B. Lee R. Stefanski 《Climatic change》2013,119(1):213-221
Several lines of evidence show that climatic variation and global warming can have a major effect on fisheries production and replenishment. To prevent overfishing and rebuild overfished stocks under changing and uncertain environmental conditions, new research partnerships between fisheries scientists and climate change experts are required. The International Workshop on Climate and Oceanic Fisheries held in Rarotonga, Cook Islands, 3–5 October 2011, brought representatives from these disciplines together to consider the effects of climate variability and change on oceanic fisheries, the tools and strategies required for identifying potential impacts on oceanic fisheries, and the priority adaptations for sustaining future harvests, especially in the Pacific Ocean. Recommendations made by the workshop included (1) development and implementation of sustainable management measures for fisheries; (2) long-term commitment to monitoring necessary to assess stock status and to conduct integrated ecosystem assessments; (3) process oriented research to evaluate the potential of marine species for adaptation to a changing ocean environment; (4) provision of improved national meteorological and hydrological services to fisheries agencies, enterprises and communities; (5) continuing communication of potential impacts and adaptation strategies to stakeholders to reduce the threats to oceanic fisheries and capitalise on opportunities; and (6) continued collaborative efforts between meteorological, oceanographic, biological and fisheries researchers and management agencies to better monitor and understand the impacts of short-term variability and longer-term change on oceanic fisheries. 相似文献
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"经济大国能源与气候论坛"在推动全球主要国家就应对气候变化主要议题达成一致方面取得了进展,已初步显示出其作为联合国气候谈判晴雨表的特征。该论坛的实质是主要发达国家为转移减排责任和压力,降低减排成本,绑架主要发展中国家在全球应对气候变化领域实施的集体强权政治。论坛的核心目标在于推动全球量化减排,目的是借全球量化减排,营造低碳和气候友好技术的广大市场,使得具有技术优势的这些经济大国拥有新的主导全球经济的力量。我国应坚持"共同但有区别的责任"原则,联合与会发展中国家强调气候变化的历史责任,反对为全球温室气体排放设限等不公平提议,团结广大发展中国家,同时抓住论坛力推低碳经济和低碳技术发展的机遇,使我国站在全球新一轮技术革命的前沿。 相似文献
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Although there are different results from different studies, most assessments indicate that climate variability would have
negative effects on agriculture and forestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics. Cereal crop yields would decrease generally
with even minimal increases in temperature. For commercial crops, extreme events such as cyclones, droughts and floods lead
to larger damages than only changes of mean climate. Impacts of climate variability on livestock mainly include two aspects;
impacts on animals such as increase of heat and disease stress-related death, and impacts on pasture. As to forestry, climate
variability would have negative as well as some positive impacts on forests of humid and sub-humid tropics. However, in most
tropical regions, the impacts of human activities such as deforestation will be more important than climate variability and
climate change in determining natural forest cover. 相似文献
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科技部科研院所社会公益专项资金重点项目“突发性强灾害天气预警系统（EWSSWE）”2006年6月6日通过验收。该系统是一个依托动力模式的数值预警系统，以WWW为平台，融贯了多种天气预报新技术，集富含信息量的强对流指数诊断预测、基于卫星和雷达产品的外推以及动力模式数值天气预报于一体；该系统开发的冰雹预报产品使本来并非预报量的冰雹作为动力模式后处理的产品输出从而赋予动力模式以直接预报冰雹的功能； 相似文献
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3种光温指标在模拟设施黄瓜生长发育中的应用与比较 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
2011年9～12月间,以黄瓜“津优1号”（ Cucumis sativus linn. cv. Jingyoul ） 为试材,在南京信息工程大学试验温室进行分批栽培试验,测定温室气象要素和作物数据,分别用活动积温（AAT,Ac-tive accumulated temperature ）、有效积温（ EAT, Effective accumulated temperature） 和辐热积（TEP,Thermal effectiveness and photosynthesis active radiation）3种光温指标模拟温室黄瓜植株叶面积、株高和生育期,并利用独立试验数据对各个模型进行验证。结果表明：用辐热积指标分别模拟黄瓜各生育期（出苗期、开花期、坐果期、果实膨大期、成熟期）距播种日期的天数,其相对标准误差（RMSE）分别为0d,3d,4d,5d,4d,小于活动积温法（1d,6d,8d,11d,11d）和有效积温法（0d,4d,3d,8d,10d）。利用辐热积指标模拟叶面积和株高的相对标准误差（RMSE）分别为43．0cm^2和4．3cm,决定系数（R^2）分别为0．98和0．98,而用活动积温和有效积温指标模拟黄瓜单株叶面积的相对标准误差（RMSE）分别为61．3cm^2和54．6cm^2,模拟株高的相对标准误差（RMSE）分别为9．8cm和7．5cm。比较结果显示利用辐热积指标模拟温室黄瓜生育期、株高和叶面积的精度明显高于活动积温和有效积温,该研究为温室黄瓜生长指标和各生育期的预测以及环境调控提供参考。 相似文献
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Clark L. Gray 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(2):421-430
Soil degradation is widely considered to be a key factor undermining agricultural livelihoods in the developing world and contributing to rural out-migration. To date, however, few quantitative studies have examined the effects of soil characteristics on human migration or other social outcomes for potentially vulnerable households. This study takes advantage of a unique longitudinal survey dataset from Kenya and Uganda containing information on household-level soil properties to investigate the effects of soil quality on population mobility. Random effects multinomial logit models are used to test for effects of soil quality on both temporary and permanent migration while accounting for a variety of potential confounders. The analysis reveals that soil quality significantly reduces migration in Kenya, particularly for temporary labor migration, but marginally increases migration in Uganda. These findings are consistent with several previous studies in showing that adverse environmental conditions tend to increase migration but not universally, contrary to common assumptions about environmentally-induced migration. 相似文献
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High-Frequency and Low-Frequency Variability in Stochastic Daily Weather Generator and Its Effect on Agricultural and Hydrologic Modelling 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The high-frequency and low-frequency variabilities, which are often misreproduced by the daily weather generators, have a significant effect on modelling weather-dependent processes. Three modifications are suggested to improve the reproduction of the both variabilities in a four-variate daily weather generator Met&Roll: (i) inclusion of the annual cycle of lag-0 and lag-1 correlations among solar radiation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, (ii) use of the 3rd order Markov chain to model precipitation occurrence, (iii) applying the monthly generator (based on a first-order autoregressive model) to fit the low-frequency variability. The tests are made to examine the effects of the three new features on (i) a stochastic structure of the synthetic series, and on (ii) outputs from CERES-Wheat crop model (crop yields) and SAC-SMA rainfall-runoff model (monthly streamflow characteristics, distribution of 5-day streamflow) fed by the synthetic weather series. The results are compared with those obtained with the observed weather series.Results: (i) The inclusion of the annual cycle of the correlations has rather ambiguous effect on the temporal structure of the weather characteristics simulated by the generator and only insignificant effect on the output from either simulation model. (ii) Increased order of the Markov chain improves modelling of precipitation occurrence series (especially long dry spells), and correspondingly improves reliability of the output from either simulation model. (iii) Conditioning the daily generator on monthly generator has the most positive effect, especially on the output from the hydrological model: Variability of the monthly streamflow characteristics and the frequency of extreme streamflows are better simulated. (iv) Of the two simulation models, the improvements related to the three modifications are more pronounced in the hydrological simulations. This may be also due to the fact that the crop growth simulations were less affected by the imperfections of the unmodified version of Met&Roll. 相似文献
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气象与环境学报》编辑部与北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司开展技术合作,于2008年初开通了由该公司开发研制的“稿件远程采编处理系统”和“网站系统”。系统主要包括作者在线投稿系统、作者在线查稿系统、在线审稿系统、编委在线审稿系统、主编在线审稿系统和远程编辑系统。实现了作者、审者、编者在线稿件收稿、审稿、退修、发稿通知的全过程监控与管理。网站包括期刊介绍、编委会、投稿须知、期刊订阅、广告合作和编辑部公告等信息。系统运行以来,加快了稿件处理效率,缩短了论文刊登周期,提高了工作效率,扩大了期刊传播影响力,方便了广大作者和读者,促进了编辑业务现代化建设的进展。通过对《气象与环境学报》稿件远程采编处理系统的建设和应用的叙述,概述了网站与系统的功能和设置,归纳了应用效果与体会,讨论了系统和网站的特点与存在的问题。 相似文献
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利用1994—2014年中国城市数据探讨气候变化对城市全要素生产率（TFP）的影响。研究发现：气候变化（气温变化和降水量变化）对城市TFP均有负面影响,其中降水量的影响更显著,但对中国东部地区城市的TFP影响不明显;经济发展水平越高的城市,其TFP受气候变化的影响越小,而经济发展水平越低,这种影响就越显著;城市产业结构越趋合理,天气与气候的影响越低,反之则影响越大。其中降水量的变化对三大产业都有影响,对第一产业影响最显著。 相似文献
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Climate Change and Agricultural Soils: Impacts and Adaptation 总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7
This article reviews the current state of knowledge on the response of soils to climate change, and the implications such changes have for agriculture. The article is based on the material reported in the IPCC second assessment report (Watson et al., 1996) and updated with more recent information, where appropriate. The review highlights the importance of understanding the dynamics of soil processes when addressing climate change impacts on agriculture. Rapid soil responses to climate change (e.g. soil water, organic carbon and erodibility) have been widely investigated and reported in the literature. However, it is important that longer-term processes (e.g. pedogenesis) are not ignored by the research community because these have potentially important implications for long-term agricultural land use and are often irreversible. The use of good land management practices, as currently understood, provides the best strategy for adaptation to the impact of climate change on soils. However, it appears likely that farmers will need to carefully reconsider their management options, and land use change is likely to result from different crop selections that are more appropriate to the changing conditions. Perhaps the greatest impact of climate change on soils will arise from climate-induced changes in land use and management. 相似文献
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影响云和降水的动力、热力与微物理因素的研究概述 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
由于云和降水的发生、发展是大气动力、热力过程与云中微物理过程相结合的产物，因而受到这些过程的共同制约和影响。为了更加详细地了解影响云和降水的动力、热力与微物理因素，分别从3个方面概要性地进行了阐述。（1）动力作用对云和降水发展的影响：主要讨论了风切变、天气系统抬升、地形动力作用和湍流的作用等因素的作用。（2）影响云和降水发展的热力因素：分别对热力扰动、潜热的作用、辐射作用等做了分析。（3）微物理过程对云和降水发展的影响：主要从微物理过程对动力热力过程的影响、带电过程对云降水粒子的影响、以及微物理过程对云降水影响的相对重要性等方面进行讨论。并在最后扼要地指出了在研究云和降水问题时，将动力、热力过程和微物理过程结合起来研究的必要性。 相似文献
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热带海表温度及北大西洋涛动与ENSO事件的相关分析 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
采用交叉小波变换方法分析了热带SST、NAO与ENSO事件之间的多时间尺度相关特征。结果表明，热带SST与ENSO事件在2～7年和30年以上尺度的周期振荡上存在着显著的同位相正相关，其中以4年尺度周期的方差贡献最大，时域中热带SST冷暖变化的时间与ENSO冷暖交替的时间一一对应；北大西洋SST与ENSO事件在4年和15年尺度周期振荡上表现为方差贡献较大的正相关；NAO与ENSO事件相关较弱，在2～7年和10～24年尺度上表现为负相关，而25年以上尺度为正相关，时域中NAO强弱变化与ENSO冷暖交替的对应关系并不完全一致。 相似文献
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《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》（SROCC）于2019年9月在IPCC第一工作组和第二工作组第二次联合大会上得到审议通过,并得到了IPCC第51届全会接受和批准。文中主要对该报告中海洋和冰冻圈变化有关的极端事件、突变及其影响与风险的有关评估内容进行了综合分析。SROCC评估得到的最新结果显示：气候变化背景下冰冻圈变化引起的山体滑坡、雪崩和冰川洪水事件频发。海洋有关的海洋热浪频发,极端El Niño事件加强,大西洋经向翻转环流减弱。同时,沿海地区极端海平面上升,极端海浪增高,极端热带气旋影响增加。这些变化,比如海洋热浪等,是可以归因于人为增暖的。预估结果表明,海洋和冰冻圈变化引起的极端事件未来会进一步加剧。而这些变化已经影响了高山、极地以及沿海地区人群的生产和生活,以及海洋和冰冻圈的生态系统服务功能。应对这一系列变化,需要更加精准的预测和预警,包括对极端事件和突变的季节预测和年际、年代际预测,以便做好充足的准备来降低极端事件风险。同时,加强应对极端事件的科普教育和提供因地制宜的灾害重建措施等也是风险管理的重要环节。 相似文献
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Vast areas of rangelands across the world are grazed with increasing intensity, but interactions between livestock production, biodiversity and other ecosystem services are poorly studied. This study explicitly determines trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services and livestock grazing intensity on rangelands. Grazing intensity and its effects on forage utilization by livestock, carbon sequestration, erosion prevention and biodiversity are quantified and mapped, using global datasets and models. Results show that on average 4% of the biomass produced annually is consumed by livestock. On average, erosion prevention is 10% lower in areas with a high grazing intensity compared to areas with a low grazing intensity, whereas carbon emissions are more than four times higher under high grazing intensity compared to low grazing intensity. Rangelands with the highest grazing intensity are located in the Sahel, Pakistan, West India, Middle East, North Africa and parts of Brazil. These high grazing intensities result in carbon emissions, low biodiversity values, low capacity for erosion prevention and unsustainable forage utilization. Although the applied models simplify the processes of ecosystem service supply, our study provides a global overview of the consequences of grazing for biodiversity and ecosystem services. The expected increasing future demand for livestock products likely increase pressures on rangelands. Global-scale models can help to identify targets and target areas for international policies aiming at sustainable future use of these rangelands. 相似文献
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The information is presented on the activity of Roshydromet in high-latitude and polar regions for providing the hydrometeorological safety of population and economy in the Arctic and presence in Antarctica as well as on its development and modernization since the 2000s and on the contribution of Roshydromet to Russian studi es and works in the framework of the International Polar Year 2007–2008. 相似文献
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利用常规观测资料、逐日降水和NCEP再分析资料等统计2007—2017年5—7月西南涡共计199例,其中110例移出源地发展。在移出型西南涡中有66例沿偏东路径移动,占比60%;东北路径西南涡约占28.2%;东南路径西南涡仅占10.9%。移出型西南涡与我国中东部降水具有密切关系:偏东型有利于沿江地区降水增多;东北型使江北大部分地区降水增加;东南型有利于华南地区降水增加。偏东型和东北型西南涡中心路径与雨带走向近乎平行,但存在不同程度的偏移,造成偏移差异的直接原因在于低涡北侧是否有降水。研究表明:当高空无干冷侵入时,低涡南侧偏南风越强,北侧空气湿度越大,北侧低空有偏东气流将有利于北侧空气抬升产生降水;当高空存在干冷侵入时,若北侧低层有一支湿润的偏东气流,二者叠加形成对流不稳定,也有利于降水。 相似文献