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利用阿勒泰地区7个气象观测站1981-2013年积雪初、终日期、积雪期(积雪初、终日期间日数),以及同期平均气温、平均0厘米地面温度、降水量、日照时数和平均风速资料,分析了该区积雪的变化特征及其与五个气象因子的关系。结果表明：阿勒泰地区平均初日为11月3日,终日为4月2日,平均积雪期为152d;近33年阿勒泰地区积雪初日呈上升的趋势,而终日和积雪期是呈下降趋势;除了吉木乃站的积雪初日气候倾向率是负值外,其余各站均是正值的,积雪终日的气候倾向率各站均为负值,积雪期的气候倾向率除了吉木乃站外其余均是正值;各站在积雪期内与降水量呈显著的正相关,表明降水量越多积雪持续时间越长,而且七个站均通过了显著性检验,降水因子在五个因子的对各站积雪期的影响较大;阿勒泰地区的各站积雪期与积雪初、终日期间的风速、降水量、0厘米地温、日平均气温、日照时数五个因子的相关系数中有57%的通过信度0.05的显著性检验,还有20%的通过了信度0.001的显著性检验; 相似文献
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应用主分量分析、气候突变检验、“墨西哥帽”小波分析及谱分析等多种方法对宁波市1953~2003年的年降水量进行了时空特征分析。结果表明:宁波市所辖7个气象站年降水量呈现出从西南往北—东北方向递减的趋势,与全市地形走向基本一致,年降水量最大、最小值相差400 mm左右;全市各地年降水量的年际变化趋势是一致的;宁波市区年降水量在20世纪60年代末到70年代初接近突变临界值,近年也有发生转折的趋势;进入21世纪以来,宁波市年降水量处于偏少的气候背景中,2003年变化最为剧烈;宁波市区年降水量有准4年的振荡周期。 相似文献
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气候变化对四川盆地作物生产潜力的影响评估 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
计算了四川盆地作物的光合生产潜力、光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力,选择代表站点分析了主要气象因子的变化特征及其对生产潜力的影响。结果表明,四川盆地日照时数和降水量在减少,气温在升高,日照时数和降水量的减少使生产潜力降低,而气温升高具有增加作用;各类生产潜力在1970 s都属于高值时期,光温生产潜力在2006年达到另一个高值;近十年各类生产潜力平均值均较1970 s有所减少,盆地平均气温升高1℃,光温生产潜力增加6%,降水量减少10%,气候生产潜力减少1.6%。 相似文献
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近五十年来广西海岛的气候变化与气象灾害特征分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《气象研究与应用》2015,(2)
利用涠洲岛气象站自建站至2010年的气象观测资料,分析总结近五十年来广西海岛的气候特征、气候变化规律与气象灾害特征。分析结果表明,随着全球变暖广西海岛的气候发生了明显变化,气温显著升高,特别是90年代后期以来,升温更加显著,冬季对气候变暖的贡献最大;年降水量呈增多趋势,主要来自夏季降水量增多的贡献,从80年代开始降水量增加趋势明显;广西海岛主要的气象灾害发生的频率和强度出现明显变化,台风影响个数略有减少,大风日数呈减少趋势,暴雨、旱涝灾害有所增加,极端天气气候事件造成的灾害损失呈增大趋势。 相似文献
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山东省气候变化及其对冬小麦生产潜力的影响 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
利用全省 2 7个台站 1 96 1～ 1 998年的温度、降水、日照等基本气象要素资料 ,对山东省气候变化特点进行了分析 ,并对冬小麦生产潜力进行了计算、分析。结果表明 ,山东省年、季平均气温呈波动性增暖趋势 ,降水量呈减少趋势。气候变暖有利于生产潜力的提高 ,冬小麦气候生产潜力总的变化趋势是波动性的上升 ,但较光温生产潜力倾向率小 ,反映了小麦生育期内光、温、水的综合影响。 相似文献
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未来气候变化对安徽淮河以南一季稻气候生产潜力的影响评估 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《干旱气象》2020,(2)
针对未来气候变化及其对一季稻的可能影响,利用第5次耦合模式比较计划(coupled model intercomparison project phase 5,CMIP5)中5个气候模式(global circulation models,GCMs)和3种RCPs情景输出的逐日气候要素资料以及安徽淮河以南50个气象站1961—2010年逐日平均气温、降水量等观测资料和各县一季稻生育期、单产资料,预估未来21世纪安徽淮河以南一季稻生育期气候变化,并基于潜力衰减法估算近期(2018—2039年)、中期(2040—2069年)和远期(2070—2099年)一季稻气候生产潜力及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:(1)5个GCMs对安徽淮河以南气温与降水量具有较好的模拟能力,且气温模拟效果更佳。(2)不同RCPs情景下未来一季稻各生育期将提前、全生育期缩短。预估的安徽淮河以南一季稻生育期持续增暖,北部增温幅度高于南部,其中RCP8.5情景下变暖幅度更显著;未来全生育期降水量整体变化趋势不明显,但南部增加较为明显,而太阳总辐射均显著减少。(3)不同RCPs情景预估的一季稻气候生产潜力均呈显著下降趋势,以远期降幅最大。(4)一季稻气候生产潜力与全生育期平均气温和降水量显著相关,且增暖负效应突出。可见,未来气候变化可能对一季稻气候生产潜力的提高不利。 相似文献
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广西藤县50年气候变化特征分析 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
根据藤县有历史记录以来的50年的气象资料,对藤县的气候进行统计分析.结果发现藤县年平均气温和年最低气温总体都呈现出较明显的上升趋势,70年代后年平均气温以0.2℃/10年的倾向率上升,而平均最高气温的变化幅度不明显,气候变暖贡献最大的是冬秋两季的增温,贡献最小的是夏季;年降水量总体是呈下降趋势的,并与年平均气温变化之间,呈反相位关系,有春秋旱夏季涝的特点;日照时数与年平均气温90年代中期以前呈正相位相关,后期由于大气环境受到较严重的烟尘污染,日照时数出现异常偏少现象,与年平均气温呈反相位相关. 相似文献
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The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics. 相似文献
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Yuepeng PAN Mengna GU Yuexin HE Dianming WU Chunyan LIU Linlin SONG Shili TIAN Xuemei Lü Yang SUN Tao SONG Wendell W. WALTERS Xuejun LIU Nicholas A. MARTIN Qianqian ZHANG Yunting FANG Valerio FERRACCI Yuesi WANG 《大气科学进展》2020,37(9):933-938
正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on 相似文献
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Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d. 相似文献
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Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region. 相似文献
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Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms. 相似文献
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《大气和海洋科学快报》2013,(4):227
正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. 相似文献
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《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,7(6):F0003-F0003
AIMS AND SCOPE
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
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《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,(5):F0003-F0003
AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） pub- lishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmos- phere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
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《大气科学进展》2014,(6)
正Aims Scope Advances in Atmospheric Sciences(AAS)is an international journal on the dynamics,physics,and chemistry of the atmosphere and ocean with papers across the full range of the atmospheric sciences,co-published bimonthly by Science Press and Springer.The journal includes Articles,Note and Correspondence,and Letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献