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1.
从广西春季低温阴雨天气发生的同期５００ｈＰａ环流分析出发,找出关键区域,以该关键区域格点的平均值作为原序列,与前期９－１１月５００ｈＰａ格点计算相关系数,挑出相关好且通过相在检验的格点数多的月分,以该月在高的所有格点值为一个样本场,以相似离离理论秋计算依据,作出次年低温阴雨总日数和结束期的预报。通过对１９９５－１９９７年试报和１９９８年预报,效果较好。 相似文献
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将Hulme的全球陆地格点化降水资料在中国陆地区域内同测站值进行了对比分析。结果表明,格点化资料能较好地描述降水场的大尺度特征,40多个格点值序列代表了全国近200个测站记录,并具有较高的时空覆盖率。当仅对中国区域内的降水进行分析时,为使资料的代表性更好,需对位于国界附近和沿海地区格点的序列值进行必要的修正。 相似文献
4.
AIRS卫星数据集简介
1资料概况
2011年4月,南京大气资料服务中心从NASA戈达德地球科学数据和信息服务中心（Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center,简称GES DISC）引进了AIRS（Atmospheric Infrared Sounder）卫星资料,包括AIRS标准反演产品全球1°×1°格点日值数据集、AIRS标准反演产品全球1°×1°格点月值数据集。 相似文献
5.
《大气和海洋科学快报》2016,(3)
本文运用了南海观测资料去评估五个海表热通量格点资料,同时,也计算了这五种格点资料的海表热收支平衡。结果发现这些格点资料都低估了短波辐射和感热通量,但是潜热通量除了NOC2外都相对接近观测值。低估了短波辐射也表明了这些格点资料可能低估了海表热收支。五种格点资料的净热通量都是正值,表明海洋从大气中获得热量。综合比较来看的话,NOC1资料所得的海表热通量收支可能更接近于观测值,更合理。 相似文献
6.
基于百度地图的精细化格点预报显示 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
精细化格点要素预报是目前中国气象局的主推业务和未来天气预报的发展方向,如何有效地将预报产品提供给用户使用,是精细化格点预报的最终环节。本文介绍了基于百度地图API的陕西精细化格点预报显示系统,系统主要实现了:(1)降水预报,以CMORPH(NOAA Climate Prediction Center Morphing Method)卫星与全国3万个自动观测站的逐时降水量融合资料为基础,通过动态偏差订正的方法来提高格点降水的预报能力;温度预报,采用滑动线性回归的方法来改善温度预报效果。(2)任意位置的地理信息获取及对应格点240h预报时效的气象要素实时展示。(3)格点气象要素向站点转换,通过格点值提取全省98个观测站逐3h站点预报值,实时分析过去24h降水、温度预报与观测值的误差,供用户预判未来预报值的可能误差趋势;并提供未来168h逐日要素预报。(4)与以往的数据库后台支撑不同,本系统直接将3.5GB格点预报数据一次性读入内存,进行侦听,解决了数据库检索、调用效率低下的问题。 相似文献
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中国地面均一化相对湿度月值格点数据集的建立 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
基于1951—2014年2400余个中国国家级地面气象站均一化相对湿度资料,采用薄盘样条法,进行空间内插,得到了中国地面均一化相对湿度月值0.5°×0.5°格点数据集(CR数据集)。数据集的质量评估结果表明:冬季插值误差相对夏季偏高。冬、春、夏、秋季分析值与站点实测值的插值偏差空间区域特征不显著,平均偏差分别为0.002%/月、0.013%/月、0.008%/月和0.007%/月。冬、春、夏、秋季平均相对误差分别为0.431%/月、0.439%/月、0.286%/月和0.382%/月。分析值与站点实测值间的平均相关系数达0.89。整体来看,插值后的格点化相对湿度资料能够比较准确、细致地描述我国年平均相对湿度场的东南湿、西北干的主要空间特征。能够较好地展现长江以南地区、黄河以南长江以北地区、西北地区、天山南北麓、塔里木盆地等大地形的相对湿度变化特征。由于青藏高原台站稀少,格点数据集对该地区空气相对湿度特征的刻画是否合理很难给出定性、定量的判断。通过对CR数据集进行长时间序列气候变化趋势分析,表明60年来全国平均相对湿度呈减小趋势。 相似文献
9.
采用不规则格点上的车贝雪夫多项式展开的方法,将贵州省４２个不规则格点（测站）上１９６１￣１９９０年４￣９月降水量进行展开。考虑到测站的代表性和空间分布特点,取ｘ方向的格点数Ｉ０＝７,取ｙ方向的格点数Ｊ０＝６。 相似文献
10.
乌鲁木齐市大降水特征分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
木妮娜 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》1996,19(3):15-17
通过对乌鲁木齐市45年的降水资料分析，探讨大降水的气候统计特征以及形成大降水的天气形势特点，通过分析数值预报格点值的变化，得出了大降水产生时96s剖面图和48s小时格点温度值的变化与乌鲁木齐大降水的关系。 相似文献
11.
利用基于张弛逼近的四维数据同化技术,构建了广东深圳的千米格距网格化气象数据集,由于同化了深圳及周边可获得的高频次观测数据,气象数据集基本准确表现出几种关键气象要素的年际变化和月变化特征。在网格化气象数据集基础上开发了“深圳市细网格气候信息平台”,并通过平台推出了若干精细气候数据产品:精细风玫瑰、逐网格风能等。这些数据产品已经在格点气温预报、风能示范项目选址以及详细规划的自然通风评估中发挥了实际作用。这些探索表明,网格化气象数据集的建立,有望为城市的网格化精细管理和建设提供气象科技支撑。 相似文献
12.
中国智能网格天气预报已初步建立0—30 d涵盖基本气象要素的无缝隙气象预报业务体系。近年深度学习技术兴起,给不同领域带来前所未有的变革。同样,深度学习的非线性映射能力、海量信息提取能力、时空建模能力等优势为进一步提升智能网格预报的准确性和精细化水平提供了新的思路和方法。越来越多的研究将深度学习技术应用于智能网格预报的各个方面,包括数值预报订正和解释应用、集合天气预报、相似集合、统计降尺度、纯数据驱动的预报模型和极端天气预报等,并展示出良好的应用潜力。然而,目前深度学习技术在天气预报领域的应用仍处于起步阶段,将其引入智能网格预报业务体系还面临诸多挑战,主要包括算法的选择、算法的数据基础、多源数据融合以及模型的可解释性、可信度、可用性和工程化等。通过回顾近年来深度学习技术在智能网格预报中的应用进展和前景,同时对面临的挑战与应对进行探讨,将有利于促进深度学习技术在天气客观预报领域更好、更稳定的发展。 相似文献
13.
Deliang CHEN Tinghai OU Lebing GONG Chong-Yu XU LI Weijing Chang-Hoi Ho QIAN Weihong 《大气科学进展》2010,27(6):1221-1232
Climate research relies heavily on good quality
instrumental data; for modeling efforts gridded data are needed. So
far, relatively little effort has been made to create gridded
climate data for China. This is especially true for high-resolution
daily data. This work, focuses on identifying an accurate method to
produce gridded daily precipitation in China based on the observed
data at 753 stations for the period 1951--2005. Five interpolation
methods, including ordinary nearest neighbor, local polynomial,
radial basis function, inverse distance weighting, and ordinary
kriging, have been used and compared. Cross-validation shows that
the ordinary kriging based on seasonal semi-variograms gives the
best performance, closely followed by the inverse distance weighting
with a power of 2. Finally the ordinary kriging is chosen to
interpolate the station data to a 18 km×18 km grid system
covering the whole country. Precipitation for each 0.5o×0.5o latitude-longitude block is then obtained by averaging
the values at the grid nodes within the block. Owing to the higher
station density in the eastern part of the country, the
interpolation errors are much smaller than those in the west (west
of 100oE). Excluding 145 stations in the western region, the
daily, monthly, and annual relative mean absolute errors of the
interpolation for the remaining 608 stations are 74%, 29%, and
16%, respectively. The interpolated daily precipitation has been
made available on the internet for the scientific community. 相似文献
14.
PD Jones 《Climate Dynamics》1987,1(2):63-75
Reconstructions of monthly mean sea-level grid-point pressure from station pressure data over the Arctic region using an objective technique have revealed two serious errors in the gridded data. First, all gridded data (from the U.S. Historical Weather Map series) for the Arctic Ocean area away from the North Atlantic sector appears to be between 4 and 6 mb too high before about 1931. The semi-permanent Arctic high produced in the early historical map series was the result of a lack of basic station data, and the belief amongst many North American meteorologists of the 1920s and 1930s of the existence of a polar or glacial anticyclone. The second error affects only north-western North America for the years 1899–1909. Here pressure is again too high compared with reconstructed data. The cause of this error is not immediately apparent, but is probably the result of an erroneous correction to sea level for stations in the region. Both errors seriously affect the homogeneity of the gridded Arctic series. The objective scheme used to reveal the errors, can also be used to derive correction factors for the gridded data prior to 1931. 相似文献
15.
To address the demand for high spatial resolution gridded climate data, we have advanced the Daymet point-based interpolation algorithm for downscaling global, coarsely gridded data with additional output variables. The updated algorithm, High-Resolution Climate Downscaler (HRCD), performs very good downscaling of daily, global, historical reanalysis data from 1° input resolution to 2.5 arcmin output resolution for day length, downward longwave radiation, pressure, maximum and minimum temperature, and vapor pressure deficit. It gives good results for monthly and yearly cumulative precipitation and fair results for wind speed distributions and modeled downward shortwave radiation. Over complex terrain, 2.5 arcmin resolution is likely too low and aggregating it up to 15 arcmin preserves accuracy. HRCD performs comparably to existing daily and monthly US datasets but with a global extent for nine daily climate variables spanning 1948–2006. Furthermore, HRCD can readily be applied to other gridded climate datasets. 相似文献
16.
基于移动互联网的交通气象服务系统设计与应用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
设计并实现了基于移动互联网的交通气象服务系统。通过对用户定位信息与天气现象、能见度、温度、降水、风力等精细化格点数据进行融合,提供了一系列基于位置的创新性交通气象服务:道路前方高影响天气路段语音提醒及气象信息自动化语言表达、基于WebGIS服务的交通气象服务信息展示和基于精细化格点预报数据的智能导航。与传统网页单向式的信息交互方式不同,交通气象服务系统绝大部分数据存储及处理工作在服务端完成,通过Web服务实现了与客户端的双向信息传递,向用户提供精准的基于位置的信息推送。本系统已经在浙江省气象局智慧气象手机客户端中作为一个独立模块实际应用。 相似文献
17.
基于遥感技术(RS)和地理信息系统(GIS),利用由基于DEM演算的地面最高温度、最小相对湿度和最大风速等格点化气象要素,FY2静止气象卫星逐日降水反演产品和AVHRR积雪监测产品计算网格森林火险天气等级,结合由植被类型、NDVI、地形要素和公路、人口聚居地等要素评估的森林火险风险等级,综合计算得到网格化的西藏森林火险等级。该项业务程序基于MeteoInfo组件建立,能够实现全自动化业务运行。对于森林火灾事件,通过与基于气象站的森林火险天气等级相比,该方法的准确性更高,能为西藏林区森林防火工作提供有效参考。 相似文献
18.
三种高分辨率格点降水预报检验方法的对比 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
客观有效的评估高分辨率模式格点降水的预报能力,不仅是模式发展中的基础问题,而且直接关系到目前中国气象局主推的格点天气预报业务。以ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)模式高分辨率降水格点预报资料、CMORPH(NOAA Climate Prediction Center Morphing Method)卫星与全国3×104个自动观测站的逐时降水量融合资料为基础,选择2015年6~8月55个降水个例,研究传统检验方法、面向对象MODE(Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation)方法、以及邻域法在高分辨率格点降水预报检验中的适用性及优缺点,以期为高分辨率格点降水的预报性能评估提供参考。主要结论如下:(1)尽管点对点的传统方法在高分辨率格点降水检验中存在一定的局限,但传统方法能够在空间上表现高分辨率格点降水预报技巧的地域性差异,在时间上刻画预报的整体性能,对高分辨率格点预报性能评估仍然具有重要的适用价值;(2)邻域法的显著优点在于一方面能够通过变换邻域窗获得不同空间尺度上的传统预报技巧,另一方面独有的FSS(Fractions Skill Score)技巧评分能够表现预报相对于观测降水在格点数量上的比值,结合FSS和不同邻域窗上的传统技巧评分,可以判别在多大空间尺度上能够获得较好的预报技巧;(3)MODE方法在变换卷积半径的基础上提取降水对象,基于降水对象不仅能统计模式的传统技巧评分和预报性能的尺度变化,还可以表现降水对象的质心距离、轴角、面积、强度、综合收益、位移距离等多种属性,这些属性首先为用户提供了模式预报性能的多视角表现,其次从侧面定量描述了模式对天气系统发展快慢、槽脊强弱等预报误差,具有独特的优势,但如何应用对象属性来提高实际的预报能力还存在一些困难。 相似文献
19.
Tao Li Xiaogu Zheng Yongjiu Dai Chi Yang Zhuoqi Chen Shupeng Zhang Guocan Wu Zhonglei Wang Chengcheng Huang Yan Shen Rongwei Liao 《大气科学进展》2014,31(5):1127-1135
As part of a joint effort to construct an atmospheric forcing dataset for mainland China with high spatiotemporal reso- lution, a new approach is proposed to construct gridded near-surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and surface pressure with a resolution of 1 km× 1 km. The approach comprises two steps： （1） fit a partial thin-plate smoothing spline with orography and reanalysis data as explanatory variables to ground-based observations for estimating a trend surface; （2） apply a simple kriging procedure to the residual for trend surface correction. The proposed approach is applied to observations collected at approximately 700 stations over mainland China. The generated forcing fields are compared with the corresponding components of the National Centers for Environmental Predic- tion （NCEP） Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset and the Princeton meteorological forcing dataset. The comparison shows that, both within the station network and within the resolutions of the two gridded datasets, the interpolation errors of the proposed approach are markedly smaller than the two gridded datasets. 相似文献
20.
Significant efforts have been devoted in recent years towards extending observation-based three-dimensional atmospheric data sets back in time. Such data sets form an important basis for a better understanding of the climate system. Here we present a new monthly three-dimensional global data set that is based on historical upper-air data and surface data. We use statistical reconstruction techniques, calibrated using ERA-40 data, to obtain gridded data from the numerous, but scattered and heterogeneous historical upper-air observations. In contrast to previous work, in which we used hemispheric principal components on both the predictor and the predictand side to reconstruct spatially complete fields back to 1880, we restrict the procedure to places and times where upper-air observations are available. Each grid column (consisting of four variables at six levels) is then reconstructed independently using only predictor variables in the vicinity (i.e., only local stationarity is required rather than stationary large-scale patterns). The product, termed REC2, is a gridded, global monthly data set of geopotential height, temperature, and u and v wind from 850 to 100?hPa back to 1918. The data set is sparse (i.e., many grid cells are empty), but provides an alternative to large-scale reconstructions as it allows for non-stationary teleconnections. We show the results of several validation experiments, compare our new data set with a number of existing data sets, and demonstrate that it is suitable for analysing large-scale climate variability on interannual time-scales. 相似文献