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连云港市森林火灾发生特点及火险预报方法的研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过对连云港市１９８７－１９９３年大小和程度不同的１１１次森林火灾查找原因并进行天气分析,指出原全国森林火险天气等级方法的不合理部分,并加以改进,增加了实效雨量、积雪深度等因素,推导出比较符合实际的森林火险天气等级预报方法。通过１９９４－１９９６年的４５次森林火灾验证,准确率提高达９％。 相似文献
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应用红河州森林火险天气等级预报模式，对红河州1980年至2004年森林火灾与天气气候进行分析研究，研制适合红河州的森林火险天气等级预警预报系统，为公众提供更好的预报产品。 相似文献
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采用数理统计的方法,增加了MODIS卫星遥感监测的土壤湿度和热源点预报因子,对河北省气象局原有的森林火险预报模式进行了改进,针对不同区域分别建立了森林火险预报模式,并对2012年河北省森林火灾实际发生情况进行了分析和应用效果检验。结果表明,2012年防火期,实况出现火灾,改进的火险模式预报森林火险气象等级5级为预报完全正确比率达66．3％;预报火险气象等级为4级（高度火险）及以上的正确率达83．1％;预报火险气象等级为3级（中度火险）及以上的正确率达98．8％;在所有的预报样本中,森林火险气象等级预报5级,但实况没有出现火灾的空报率为6．8％。检验结果显示,改进后的森林火险预报模式的应用效果更接近实际情况。 相似文献
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通过对１９８７年１月￣１９９０年４月期间发生在湖北省的森林火灾过程进行分析，建立了一套较客观的火险天气环流形势预报指标，经过３年多的应用，预报效果良好。另外，还利用地面气象要素分析研究出通过计算燃料中水分的得失，从而得到预报火险等级的方法。经过１９９５年１１月－１９９６年１月的检验，结果表明：这一预报方法具有一定的预报技巧，在林火天气预报中能起很好的参考作用。 相似文献
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利用2014—2021年西安市逐日气象要素和同期的森林火灾资料,对西安市森林火灾特征进行分析;并针对实际情况,将地理特征、人类活动区域、坡度、下垫面可燃物类型、海拔等引入到西安市森林火险等级预报模型中,改进森林火灾气象等级预报算法,提出了西安市森林火险风险综合预报模型。改进后的算法在预测精度和准确度方面均得到提升,同时该模型的预测结果比西安市森林火险气象等级预报模型明显提高,以超过3级为森林火灾危险性预警标准时,可以覆盖约65%的火灾,比改进前提高了25%。本研究对森林火灾的预防和控制具有一定的参考价值。 相似文献
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使用１９８０－１９９１年森林火灾及相应的气象资料，分析了森林火灾与有关气象要素的相关性。在此基础上，计算了森林火险天气预报指标，建立了预报模式，开展了森林火险天气等级预报。经试用效果较好。 相似文献
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森林火灾严重威胁生态安全和国民经济,由于不同林地的气候以及可燃物存在差异,森林火险具有明显的区域性特征。因此,在考虑气象因子的基础上,将可燃物含水率引入小区域的森林火险指数的计算,对建立更精确的小区域森林火险等级标准和预报模型具有重要意义。本研究系统地分析了2013—2016年井冈山地区森林可燃物含水率与气象因子的分布频率及因子间的相互关系。通过主成分分析方法对所有因子进行降维处理,获得火险因子得分方程,并计算出2013—2016年井冈山地区逐日森林火险指数,进而构建火险等级划分和森林火险等级预报模型。结果表明:井冈山森林火险等级划分为5类,分别为低(火险值≤0.024)、较低(0.024火险值≤0.067)、高(0.067火险值≤0.167)、较高(0.167火险值≤0.232)、极高(火险值0.232)。基于BP神经网络模型构建了井冈山森林火险等级预报模型,预测精度可达96.4%。并利用2013—2017年卫星监测到的井冈山地区热源点数据对模型进行检验,预报准确率高达92.3%,表明该火险等级标准和预报模型能够满足井冈山地区日常防火业务需求。 相似文献
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The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics. 相似文献
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适应气候变化政策机制的国际经验与启示 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
中国高度重视适应气候变化工作,实行减缓与适应并重的应对气候变化原则,已出台适应气候变化相关的战略、规划等一系列政策文件。但总体来看,中国适应气候变化政策与行动尚处于起步阶段,面临着法规制度缺位、监测评估不足、组织协调机制不完善等挑战,适应气候变化政策的类型、数量和力度都明显弱于减缓。为完善中国适应气候变化政策与机制的框架设计,文中梳理了相关研究、《联合国气候变化框架公约》下的适应气候变化国际机制及主要国家经验,提出了一套完整闭环的适应气候变化核心决策流程及关键支撑机制,并重点从开展法制建设、制定适应战略（计划）、建立监测评估机制、构建协调机制和完善资金机制等五方面,归纳了主要国家的经验与启示,最终研究提出完善我国适应气候变化政策与机制框架设计的建议,包括加快建立和完善适应气候变化法制建设、加快构建国家适应气候变化的政策体系、加快完善国家适应气候变化的机制设计、加强适应气候变化支撑能力建设、推动适应气候变化的国际合作等。 相似文献
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To improve understanding of essential aspects that influence forecasting of tropical cyclones (TCs), the National Key Research and Development Program, Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China conducted a five-year project titled “Key Dynamic and Thermodynamic Processes and Prediction for the Evolution of Typhoon Intensity and Structure” (KPPT). Through this project, new understandings of TC intensification, including outer rainband-driven secondary eyewall formation and the roles of boundary layer dynamics and vertical wind shear, and improvements to TC data assimilation with integrated algorithms and adaptive localizations are achieved. To promote a breakthrough in TC intensity and structure forecasting, a new paradigm for TC evolution dynamics (i.e., the correlations, interactions, and error propagation among the triangle of TC track, intensity, and structure) is proposed; and an era of dynamic-constrained, big-data driven, and strongly coupled data assimilation at the subkilometer scale and seamless prediction is expected. 相似文献
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Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC): An Overview on Emission, Physiology and Ecology 总被引：50，自引：0，他引：50
This overview compiles the actual knowledge of the biogenic emissions of some volatile organic compounds (VOCs), i.e., isoprene, terpenes, alkanes, alkenes, alcohols, esters, carbonyls, and acids. We discuss VOC biosynthesis, emission inventories, relations between emission and plant physiology as well as temperature and radiation, and ecophysiological functions. For isoprene and monoterpenes, an extended summary of standard emission factors, with data related to the plant genus and species, is included. The data compilation shows that we have quite a substantial knowledge of the emission of isoprene and monoterpenes, including emission rates, emission regulation, and biosynthesis. The situation is worse in the case of numerous other compounds (other VOCs or OVOCs) being emitted by the biosphere. This is reflected in the insufficient knowledge of emission rates and biological functions. Except for the terpenoids, only a limited number of studies of OVOCs are available; data are summarized for alkanes, alkenes, carbonyls, alcohols, acids, and esters. In addition to closing these gaps of knowledge, one of the major objectives for future VOC research is improving our knowledge of the fate of organic carbon in the atmosphere, ending up in oxidation products and/or as aerosol particles. 相似文献
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Much as development’s understanding of livelihoods became intertwined with notions of sustainability in the late 1990s, today livelihoods analysis is taking up the rise of resilience in the development and climate change adaptation communities of practice. The emergent concept of resilient livelihoods risks perpetuating problematic framings of both socio-ecological and livelihoods dynamics that limit the effectiveness of development and adaptation interventions. In this paper, I connect recent contributions to the livelihoods and socio-ecological resilience literatures to define resilient livelihoods as projects aimed at the achievement of well-being in a manner that preserves existing systems of meaning, order, and privilege. These projects (re)produce socio-ecologies, deeply human assemblages of socio-cultural and biotic elements. So framed, the idea of resilient livelihoods centers meaning, power, difference, and agency in both livelihoods and socio-ecological dynamics. It opens up new understandings of the character, sources, and importance of resilience in livelihoods, allows for the identification of new indicators of livelihoods fragility, points to previously-overlooked sources of potential livelihoods transformation and change, and suggests sites of productive engagement between development and adaptation interventions and transformation and change. 相似文献
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为满足对海量气象数据管理和服务的需求,国家气象信息中心设计开发了全国综合气象信息共享系统 (CIMISS)。该文描述了系统基本设计思路、功能结构、基础平台体系结构、信息流程,阐述了系统为用户提供的基础数据使用环境。系统由数据收集与分发系统、数据加工处理系统、数据存储管理系统、数据共享服务系统、业务监控系统5个业务子系统组成,承担数据收集、加工处理、存储管理、共享服务和业务监控任务。系统设计和开发采用了一系列现代信息技术,包括基于消息和文件共享的平台内信息交换、气象数据标准化分类、数据处理作业调度和算法的动态扩展、元数据的设计和应用、公共配置信息管理、全流程业务监视和调度控制、面向服务的多维度数据存储策略、全局数据访问视图和统一访问接口设计等。该系统为我国国家级和省级气象业务提供了统一规范的气象数据使用环境。 相似文献
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鼎湖山森林地区臭氧及其前体物的变化特征和分析 总被引：18，自引：2，他引：16
通过对鼎湖山森林地区近地面O3和NOx浓度、太阳辐射、气象参数等为期一年的观测和资料分析,给出了地面O3和NOx浓度、太阳辐射的变化规律及其相互之间的关系.地面O3、NOx、CO、SO2浓度以及紫外辐射、太阳总辐射等有明显的日变化和季节变化.不同因子对O3的敏感性试验结果表明,晴天和实际天气,O3浓度对NO、NO2浓度的变化最为敏感,其次是水汽、气溶胶,最后是紫外辐射.所有因子的变化均引起O3在湿季比干季更大的变化率,因此在研究臭氧化学和光化学时,应该考虑水汽以及OH自由基的重要作用.对于晴天和实际天气的逐时值和日平均值而言,O3浓度与NO2/NO之间存在很好的正相关关系,比值NO2/NO可以作为判断O3峰值出现的一个指标.O3极值的出现既受NO和NOx影响,也受气象因素(温湿度、云、风、雾、降雨)和辐射的影响.周末O3、NOx浓度及NO2/NO有规律的增大,表明实验地点的大气受到人为污染源的影响. 相似文献
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文章从系统结构、功能、维护等方面,阐述了民航乌海机场气象网络系统的构建,以及应用和维护中的一些问题,实现气象数据传输、资料分析、产品制作和服务的自动化和智能化,达到了可靠性高、结构简单、利于维护的目的,为航空飞行的安全提供了技术保障。 相似文献
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陆生植物生长过程受太阳辐射、热量、水分、土壤等多重因素的影响,气溶胶粒子通过对太阳辐射的散射和吸收,并作为云凝结核和冰核,改变云的物理特性及生命期对上述环境因子产生影响,进而影响植物的生长。气溶胶的直接影响主要表现为气溶胶覆盖植物叶片,影响植物的呼吸作用、气孔导度及对阳光的利用率等;间接影响主要表现在气溶胶可降低入射太阳辐射量并降低光合作用及净初级生产力,但同时又会增加散射辐射量,增加植物可利用光合有效辐射,产生相互矛盾的结果;气溶胶还通过影响降水和气温,进一步影响植物对光、水、热的利用等方面。气溶胶对植物的生长影响以间接影响为主,直接影响较少。其次,各种大气气溶胶对植物的伤害作用超过大气气溶胶对植物生长促进作用。在人为气溶胶中,硫酸盐、黑碳及粉尘对植物生长以抑制作用为主,而氮化物中氮沉降既可以促进植物生长,含氮气溶胶形成的酸雨及光化学烟雾又会抑制植物生长。自然气溶胶中,火山气溶胶对植物生长产生的影响差异较大,沙尘总体对植物产生不利影响,而生物气溶胶及宇宙尘埃的影响研究还较少。 相似文献
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A situated and socially engaged science of loss arising from climate change takes people’s lived experiences with risk and harm as its fundamental starting point. It foregrounds what losses occur, where and how, which of these losses matter most to people and why, and whether or not such losses are considered acceptable and potentially reversible. However, obtaining such insight is difficult if the many things people value, across space and time, are intangible, i.e. they cannot and perhaps should not be quantified, and hence are often overlooked and omitted. This is the case, for instance, for the symbolic and affective dimensions of culture and place, such as sense of belonging, personal and collective notions of identity, and ways of knowing and making sense of the world, all of which are already undermined by climate change. Here, we perform the first systematic comparative analysis of people-centered and place-specific experiences with climate-related harm to people’s values that are largely intangible and non-commensurable. We draw upon >100 published case studies from around the world to make visible and concrete what matters most to people and what is at stake in the context of climate-related hazards and impacts. We show that the same threats can produce vastly different outcomes, ranging from reversible damages to irreversible losses and anticipated future risks, across numerous value dimensions, for indigenous and non-indigenous families, communities, and countries at all levels of development. Through this analysis, we also empirically validate dimensions of harm that have been produced and reproduced in the literature, albeit often devoid of distinct substance, lived experiences, and intrinsic significance. We end by discussing ethical implications of the ‘one thousand ways’ to encounter harm and offer recommendations to overcome methodological challenges in advancing a science of loss grounded in place. 相似文献