首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 140 毫秒
1.
The diurnal temperature range(DTR) has decreased dramatically in recent decades, but it is not yet obvious whether the extreme values of DTR have also reduced. Based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature data of 653 stations in China, a set of monthly indices of warm extremes, cold extremes, and DTR extremes in summer(June, July, August) and winter(December, January, February) were studied for spatial and temporal features during the period 1971–2013. Results show that the incidence of warm extremes has been increasing in most parts of China, while the opposite trend was found in the cold extremes for summer and winter months. Both increasing and decreasing trends of monthly DTR extremes were identified in China for both seasons. For high DTR extremes, decreasing trends were identified in northern China for both seasons, but increasing trends were found only in southern China in summer, while in winter, they were found in central China. Monthly low DTR extreme indices demonstrated consistent positive trends in summer and winter, while significant increases(P 0.05) were identified for only a few stations.  相似文献   

2.
中国均一化日平均温、最高温和最低温序列1960-2008   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文
Inhomogeneities in the daily mean/maximum/ minimum temperature （Tm/Tmax/Tmin） series from 1960- 2008 at 549 National Standard Stations （NSSs） in China were analyzed by using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization （MASH） software package. Typical biases in the dataset were illustrated via the cases of Beijing （B J）, Wutaishan （WT）, Urumqi （UR） and Henan （HN） stations. The homogenized dataset shows a mean warming trend of 0.261/0.193/0.344℃/decade for the annual series of Tm/Tmax/Tmin, slightly smaller than that of the original dataset by 0.006/0.009/0.007℃/decade. However, considerable differences between the adjusted and original datasets were found at the local scale. The adjusted Tmin series shows a significant warming trend almost everywhere for all seasons, while there are a number of stations with an insignificant trend in the original dataset. The adjusted Tm data exhibit significant warming trends annually as well as for the autumn and winter seasons in northern China, and cooling trends only for the summer in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and parts of central China and for the spring in southwestern China, while the original data show cooling trends at several stations for the annual and seasonal scales in the Qinghai, Shanxi, Hebei, and Xinjiang provinces. The adjusted Tmax data exhibit cooling trends for summers at a number of stations in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers and for springs and winters at a few stations in southwestern China, while the original data show cooling trends at three/four stations for the annual/autumn periods in the Qinghai and Yunnan provinces. In general, the number of stations with a cooling trend was much smaller in the adjusted Tm and Tmax dataset than in the original dataset. The cooling trend for summers is mainly due to cooling in August. The results of homogenization using MASH appear to be robust; in particular, different groups of stations with consideration of elevation led to minor effects i  相似文献   

3.
Trends in graded precipitation in China from 1961 to 2000   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
Daily precipitation rates observed at 576 stations in China from 1961 to 2000 were classified into six grades of intensity, including trace （no amount）, slight （≤ 1 mm d^-1）, small, large, heavy, and very heavy. The last four grades together constitute the so called effective precipitation （〉 1 mm d^-1）. The spatial distribution and temporal trend of the graded precipitation days are examined. A decreasing trend in trace precipitation days is observed for the whole of China, except at several sites in the south of the middle section of the Yangtze River, while a decreasing trend in slight precipitation days only appears in eastern China. The decreasing trend and interannual variability of trace precipitation days is consistent with the warming trend and corresponding temperature variability in China for the same period, indicating a possible role played by increased surface air temperature in cloud formation processes. For the effective precipitation days, a decreasing trend is observed along the Yellow River valley and for the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and Southwest China, while an increasing trend is found for Xinjiang, the eastern Tibetan Plateau, Northeast China and Southeast China. The decreasing trend of effective precipitation days for the middle- lower Yellow River valley and the increasing trend for the lower Yangtze River valley are most likely linked to anomalous monsoon circulation in East China. The most important contributor to the trend in effective precipitation depends upon the region concerned.  相似文献   

4.
The historical simulation of phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) experiments performed by the Beijing Climate Center climate system model(BCC_CSM1.1) is evaluated regarding the time evolutions of the global and China mean surface air temperature(SAT) and surface climate change over China in recent decades.BCC_CSM1.1 has better capability at reproducing the time evolutions of the global and China mean SAT than BCC_CSM1.0.By the year 2005,the BCC_CSM1.1 model simulates a warming amplitude of approximately 1℃ in China over the 1961-1990 mean,which is consistent with observation.The distributions of the warming trend over China in the four seasons during 1958-2004 are basically reproduced by BCC_CSM1.1,with the warmest occurring in winter.Although the cooling signal of Southwest China in spring is partly reproduced by BCC_CSM1.1,the cooling trend over central eastern China in summer is omitted by the model.For the precipitation change,BCC_CSM1.1 has good performance in spring,with drought in Southeast China.After removing the linear trend,the interannual correlation map between the model and the observation shows that the model has better capability at reproducing the summer SAT over China and spring precipitation over Southeast China.  相似文献   

5.
With daily precipitation records at 586 stations in China for 1960-2004, this study investigates the spatio-temporal variation of the number of extreme wet days (NEWD) for each season in China and its relationship with SST anomalies and associated atmospheric circulation anomaly patterns, in which a threshold of extreme precipitation for a season and a station is defined as the value of the 90th percentile when the precipitation records for wet days during the season are ranked in an increasing order. Results show that there are significant increases of the NEWD along the Yangtze River valley during winter and summer, in North China during winter, in South China during spring, in Northeast China during winter and spring, and in Northwest China throughout the seasons, while there is a remarkable decrease in North China during summer. Besides the linear trend, the NEWD also exhibits considerable interannual and interdecadal variabilities. After eliminating the linear trend, the NEWD anomalies show distinct seasonal patterns. The NEWD anomalies are characterized by a "dipole" mode with opposite phases between northern and southern China in spring and autumn, a "tri-pole" mode with opposite phases between Yangtze River valley and southern and northern China in summer, and a "monopole" mode with the same phase over most of China in winter. The relationship of the NEWD anomalies in China with the SST anomalies in Indian and Pacific Oceans is found to be mainly dependent on the ENSO, and associated atmospheric circulation anomaly patterns for the ENSO’s impact on the NEWD in China are identified.  相似文献   

6.
A number of recent studies have examined trends in extreme temperature indices using a linear regression model based on ordinary least-squares. In this study, quantile regression was, for the first time, applied to examine the trends not only in the mean but also in all parts of the distribution of several extreme temperature indices in China for the period 1960-2008. For China as a whole, the slopes in almost all the quantiles of the distribution showed a notable increase in the numbers of warm days and warm nights, and a significant decrease in the number of cool nights. These changes became much fas- ter as the quantile increased. However, although the number of cool days exhibited a significant decrease in the mean trend estimated by classical linear regression, there was no obvious trend in the upper and lower quantiles. This finding suggests that examining the trends in different parts of the distribution of the time-series is of great importance. The spatial distribution of the trend in the 90th quantile indicated that there was a pronounced increase in the numbers of warm days and warm nights, and a decrease in the number of cool nights for most of China, but especially in the northern and western parts of China, while there was no significant change for the number of cool days at almost all the stations.  相似文献   

7.
Two ensemble experiments were conducted using a general atmospheric circulation model. These experiments were used to investigate the impacts of initial snow anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau（TP） on China precipitation prediction. In one of the experiments, the initial snow conditions over the TP were climatological values; while in the other experiment, the initial snow anomalies were snow depth estimates derived from the passive microwave remote-sensing data. In the current study, the difference between these two experiments was assessed to evaluate the impact of initial snow anomalies over the TP on simulated precipitation. The results indicated that the model simulation for precipitation over eastern China had certain improvements while applying a more realistic initial snow anomaly, especially for spring precipitation over Northeast China and North China and for summer precipitation over North China and Southeast China. The results suggest that seasonal prediction could be enhanced by using more realistic initial snow conditions over TP, and microwave remote-sensing snow data could be used to initialize climate models and improve the simulation of eastern China precipitation during spring and summer. Further analyses showed that higher snow anomalies over TP cooled the surface, resulting in lower near- surface air temperature over the TP in spring and summer. The surface cooling over TP weakened the Asian summer monsoon and brought more precipitation in South China in spring and more precipitation to Southeast China during summer.  相似文献   

8.
This paper comprehensively studies the spatio-temporal characteristics of the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events over South China by using the daily precipitation data of 110 stations during 1961 to 2008 and the extremely heavy precipitation thresholds determined for different stations by REOF, trend coefficients, linear trend, Mann-Kendall test and variance analysis. The results are shown as follows. The frequency distribution of extremely heavy precipitation is high in the middle of South China and low in the Guangdong coast and western Guangxi. There are three spatial distribution types of extremely heavy precipitation in South China. The consistent anomaly distribution is the main type. Distribution reversed between the east and the west and between the south and the north is also an important type. Extremely heavy precipitation events in South China mainly occurred in the summer-half of the year. Their frequency during this time accounts for 83.7% of the total frequency. In the 1960s and 1980s, extremely heavy precipitation events were less frequent while having an increasing trend from the late 1980s. Their climatological tendency rates decrease in the central and rise in the other areas of South China, and on average the mean series also shows an upward but insignificant trend at all of the stations. South China＇s frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events can be divided into six major areas and each of them shows a different inter-annual trend and three of the representative stations experience abrupt changes by showing remarkable increases in terms of Mann-Kendall tests.  相似文献   

9.
In this paper, it is pointed out that a notable decadal shift of, the summer climate in eastern China occurred in the late 1980s. In association with this decadal climate shift, after the late 1980s more precipitation appeared in the southern region of eastern China （namely South China）, the western Pacific subtropical high stretched farther westward with a larger south-north extent, and a strengthened anticyclone at 850 hPa appeared in the northwestern Pacific. The decadal climate shift of the summer precipitation in South China was accompanied with decadal changes of the Eurasian snow cover in boreal spring and sea surface temperature （SST） in western North Pacific in boreal summer in the late 1980s. After the late 1980s, the spring Eurasian snow cover apparently became less and the summer SST in western North Pacific increased obviously, which were well correlated with the increase of the South China precipitation. The physical processes are also investigated on how the summer precipitation in China was affected by the spring Eurasian snow cover and summer SST in western North Pacific. The change of the spring Eurasian snow cover could excite a wave-train in higher latitudes, which lasted from spring to summer. Because of the wave-train, an abnormal high appeared over North China and a weak depression over South China, leading to more precipitation in South China. The increase of the summer SST in the western North Pacific reduced the land-sea thermal contrast and thus weakened the East Asian summer monsoon, also leading to more precipitation in South China.  相似文献   

10.
The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.  相似文献   

11.
Based on monthly mean surface air temperature （SAT） from 71 stations in northern China and NCEP/ NCAR and NOAA-CIRES （Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences） twentieth century reanalysis data, the dominant modes of winter SAT over northem China were explored. The results showed that there are two modes that account for a majority of the total variance over northern China. The first mode is unanimously colder （warmer） over the whole of northern China. The second mode is characterized by a dipole structure that is colder （warmer） over Northwest China （NWC） and warmer （colder） over Northeast China （NEC）, accounting for a fairly large proportion of the total variance. The two components constituting the second mode, the individual variations of winter SAT over NWC and NEC and their respective preceding factors, were further investigated. It was found that the autumn SAT anomalies are closely linked to persistent snow cover anomalies over Eurasia, showing the delayed effects on winter climate over northern China. Specifically, the previous autumn SAT anomalies over the Lake Baikal （LB; 50-60°N, 85-120°E） and Mongolian Plateau （MP; 42-52°N, 80-120°E） regions play an important role in adjusting the variations of winter SAT over NWC and NEC, respectively. The previous autumn SAT anomaly over the MP region may exert an influence on the winter SAT over NEC through modulating the strength and location of the East Asian major trough. The previous autumn SAT over the LB region may modulate winter westerlies at the middle and high latitudes of Asia and accordingly affects the invasion of cold air and associated winter SAT over NWC.  相似文献   

12.
A right annual cycle is of critical importance for a model to improve its seasonal prediction skill. This work assesses the performance of the Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG （GAMIL） in retrospective prediction of the global precipitation annual modes for the 1980 2004 period. The annual modes are gauged by a three-parameter metrics： the long-term annual mean and two major modes of annual cycle （AC）, namely, a solstitial mode and an equinoctial asymmetric mode. The results demonstrate that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction is basically able to capture the major patterns of the long-term annual mean as well as the first AC mode （the solstitial monsoon mode）. The GAMIL has deficiencies in reproducing the second AC mode （the equinoctial asymmetric mode）. The magnitude of the GAMIL prediction tends to be greater than the observed precipitation, especially in the sea areas including the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal （BOB）, and the western North Pacific （WNP）. These biases may be due to underestimation of the convective activity predicted in the tropics, especially over the western Pacific warm pool （WPWP） and its neighboring areas. It is suggested that a more accurate parameterization of convection in the tropics, especially in the Maritime Continent, the WPWP and its neighboring areas, may be critical for reproducing the more realistic annual modes, since the enhancement of convective activity over the WPWP and its vicinity can induce suppressed convection over the WNP, the BOB, and the South Indian Ocean where the GAMIL produces falsely vigorous convections. More efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in monsoon seasons but also in transitional seasons when the second AC mode takes place. Selection of the one-tier or coupled atmosphere-ocean system may also reduce the systematic error of the GAMIL prediction. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL seasonal prediction skill.  相似文献   

13.
In this study, the authors demonstrate that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） models project a robust response in changes of mean and climate extremes to warming in China. Under a scenario of a 1% CO2 increase per year, surface temperature in China is projected to increase more rapidly than the global average, and the model ensemble projects more precipitation （2.2%/℃）. Responses in changes of climate extremes are generally much stronger than that of climate means. The majority of models project a consistent re- sponse, with more warm events but fewer cold events in China due to CO2 warming. For example, the ensemble mean indicates a high positive sensitivity for increasing summer days （12.4%/℃） and tropical nights （26.0%/℃）, but a negative sensitivity for decreasing frost days （-4.7%/℃） and ice days （-7.0%/℃）. Further analyses indicate that precipitation in China is likely to become more extreme, featuring a high positive sensitivity. The sensitivity is high （2.4%/℃） for heavy precipitation days （〉 10 mm d l） and increases dramatically （5.3%/℃） for very heavy precipitation days （〉 20 mm d-1）, as well as for precipitation amounts on very wet days （10.8%/℃） and extremely wet days （22.0%/℃）. Thus, it is concluded that the more extreme precipitation events generally show higher sensitivity to CO2 warming. Additionally, southern China is projected to experience an increased risk of drought and flood occurrence, while an increased risk of flood but a decreased risk of drought is likely in other regions of China.  相似文献   

14.
In this paper, a coupled model was used to estimate the responses of soil moisture and net primary production of vegetation （NPP） to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. The analysis uses three experiments simulated by the second-generation Earth System Model （CanESM2） of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis （CCCma）, which are part of the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5）. The authors focus on the magnitude and evolution of responses in soil moisture and NPP using simulations modeled by CanESM, in which the individual effects of increasing CO2 concentration and climate change and their combined effect are separately accounted for. When considering only the single effect of climate change, the soil moisture and NPP have a linear trend of 0.03 kg m^-2 yr^-1 and-0.14 gC m^- 2 yr^-2, respec- tively. However, such a reduction in the global NPP results from the decrease of NPP at lower latitudes and in the Southern Hemisphere, although increased NPP has been shown in high northern latitudes. The largest negative trend is located in the Amazon basin at -1.79 gC m^-2 yr^-2. For the individual effect of increasing CO2 concentration, both soil moisture and NPP show increases, with an elevated linear trend of 0.02 kg m^-2 yr^-1 and 0.84 gC m^-2 yr^-2, respectively. Most regions show an increasing NPP, except Alaska. For the combined effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change, the increased soil moisture and NPP exhibit a linear trend of 0.04 kg m^2 yr^-1 and 0.83 gC m^2 yr^-2 at a global scale. In the Amazon basin, the higher reduction in soil moisture is illustrated by the model, with a linear trend of-0.39 kg m^-2 yr^-1, for the combined effect. Such a change in soil moisture is caused by a weakened Walker circulation simulated by this coupled model, compared with the single effect of increasing CO2 concentration （experiment M2）, and a consequence of the reduction in NPP is also shown in this area, with a linear trend of-  相似文献   

15.
Climate change has substantially impacted crop growth and development in the northern agro-pastoral transitional zone. Examination of the response of crop water consumption to climate change may provide a guide for adapting local agricultural production and ecological construction to new realities. The water consumption of three local crops (wheat, naked oats, and potatoes) is examined for Wuchuan County in the northern agro-pastoral transitional zone of China using meteorological data from 1960 to 2007 and soil moisture data from 1983 to 2007. The relationships between climate change and the crop water consumption are discussed. The results show that Wuchuan experienced both a warming trend and a reduction of precipitation between 1960 and 2007. The annual mean surface air temperature increased at a rate of 0.04℃ yr-1 and the annual precipitation decreased at a rate of 0.7 mm yr-1 . Both trends are particularly pronounced between 1983 and 2007, with an increase in annual mean temperature of 0.09℃ yr-1 and a decrease in annual mean precipitation of 2.1 mm yr-1 . Crop water consumption decreased between 1983 and 2007 for wheat (1.65 mm yr-1 ), naked oats (2.04 mm yr-1 ), and potatoes (3.85 mm yr-1 ). Potatoes and naked oats consume more water than wheat. Climate change has significantly impacted crop water consumption. Water consumption and rainfall during the growing season are positively correlated, while water consumption and active accumulated temperature are negatively correlated. Compared to precipitation, accumulated temperature has little impact on crop water consumption. Recent climate change has been detrimental for crop production in Wuchuan County. Adaptation to climate change should include efforts to breed drought-resistant crops and to develop drought-resistant cultivation techniques.  相似文献   

16.
In May 2008, ScienceWatch.com named Advances in Atmospheric Sciences a Rising Star among Geosciences journals. According to Essential Science IndicatorsSM from Thomson Reuters, the journal＇s cur-rent citation record includes 764 papers cited a total of 1,658 times between January 1, 1998 and February 29 2008.  相似文献   

17.
丁一汇  张锦  宋亚芳 《气象》2002,28(3):3-7
2002年3月23日世界气象日的主题是“减低天气和气候极端事件的脆弱性”。针对这个主题,作者对以下四方面问题作了阐述：（1）天气与气候极端事件以及脆弱性的定义;（2）近百年来全球天气与气候极端事件的变化及其与全球气候变化的关系;（3）未来天气与气候极端事件及其影响的预测;（4）天气与气候极端事件的适应与减缓对策。由于篇幅有限,未介绍中国在这方面的研究。  相似文献   

18.
The year 2021 was recorded as the 6th warmest since 1880. In addition to large-scale warming, 2021 will be remembered for its unprecedented climate extremes. Here, a review of selected high-impact climate extremes in 2021, with a focus on China, along with an extension to extreme events in North America and Europe is presented. Nine extreme events that occurred in 2021 in China are highlighted, including a rapid transition from cold to warm extremes and sandstorms in spring, consecutive drought in South China and severe thunderstorms in eastern China in the first half of the year, extremely heavy rainfall over Henan Province and Hubei Province during summer, as well as heatwaves, persistent heavy rainfall, and a cold surge during fall. Potential links of extremes in China to four global-scale climate extremes and the underlying physical mechanisms are discussed here, providing insights to understand climate extremes from a global perspective. This serves as a reference for climate event attribution, process understanding, and high-resolution modeling of extreme events.  相似文献   

19.
This paper reports a comprehensive study on the observed and projected spatiotemporal changes in mean and extreme climate over the arid region of northwestern China, based on gridded observation data and CMIP5 simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The observational results reveal an increase in annual mean temperature since 1961, largely attributable to the increase in minimum temperature. The annual mean precipitation also exhibits a significant increasing tendency. The precipitation amount in the most recent decade was greater than in any preceding decade since 1961. Seasonally,the greatest increase in temperature and precipitation appears in winter and in summer, respectively. Widespread significant changes in temperature-related extremes are consistent with warming, with decreases in cold extremes and increases in warm extremes. The warming of the coldest night is greater than that of the warmest day, and changes in cold and warm nights are more evident than for cold and warm days. Extreme precipitation and wet days exhibit an increasing trend, and the maximum number of consecutive dry days shows a tendency toward shorter duration. Multi-model ensemble mean projections indicate an overall continual increase in temperature and precipitation during the 21 st century. Decreases in cold extremes, increases in warm extremes, intensification of extreme precipitation, increases in wet days, and decreases in consecutive dry days, are expected under both emissions scenarios, with larger changes corresponding to stronger radiative forcing.  相似文献   

20.
与IPCC第五次评估报告（AR5）相比,在第六次评估报告（AR6）评估中,观测的极端天气气候事件变化证据,特别是归因于人为影响的证据加强。人类活动造成的气候变化已影响到全球每个区域的许多极端天气气候事件。随着未来全球变暖进一步加剧,预估极端热事件、强降水、农业生态干旱的强度和频次以及强台风（飓风）比例等将增加,越罕见的极端天气气候事件,其发生频率的增长百分比越大。这些结论再次凸显了应对气候变化和极端天气气候事件的必要性和紧迫性。  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号