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1.
利用1961-2010年沈阳市的年平均气温和供暖期及供暖期前一个月、供暖期后一个月的逐日平均气温资料,采用线性趋势分析方法及度日法,分析近50 a沈阳市年平均气温和供暖期平均气温变化的总体趋势,并对供暖初日、供暖终日和供暖期长度及供暖强度的变化特征进行分析。结果表明：近50 a沈阳市年平均气温与供暖期平均气温均呈上升趋势,近50 a年平均气温上升明显,通过了显著性检验;气候变暖使得供暖初日推迟;供暖终日提前;供暖期长度缩短;气候变暖使实际供暖强度逐渐减弱。 相似文献
2.
利用1951-1980年和1981-2010年两个气候期的月平均气温数据,对中国大陆地区建筑气候分区进行对比,讨论建筑气候分区的变化;并基于近气候期的建筑气候分区以逐日气温为基础,讨论了1951-2018年不同分区采暖气候条件变化特征。结果表明：与1951-1980年相比,1981-2010年严寒地区范围有所缩减,南界北移;寒冷区、夏热冬冷区、夏热冬暖区北进,温和区西扩,夏热冬暖区范围增大。中国大陆采暖度日数、采暖日数、采暖日均强度分布一致,东部随纬向增加,西部随海拔增加;采暖度日数严寒地区最大,寒冷地区其次,夏热冬暖地区最小;1951-2018年,中国大陆各建筑分区的采暖度日数都呈显著减少趋势,减少速率严寒地区最大,温和地区最小;夏热冬冷地区距平百分率的波动最大,严寒地区波动最小。1998-2012年,全国各建筑气候分区采暖度日数和采暖日均强度在此期间均表现为增加,其中夏热冬暖地区增加趋势通过了0.05显著性检验。 相似文献
3.
Elias M. Zubler Simon C. Scherrer Mischa Croci-Maspoli Mark A. Liniger Christof Appenzeller 《Climatic change》2014,123(2):255-271
Climate indices facilitate the interpretation of expected climate change impacts for many sectors in society, economy, and ecology. The new localized data set of climatic change signals for temperature and precipitation presented by Zubler et al. (Clim Change, 2013) is applied for an analysis of frequently used climate indices in Switzerland. The indices considered are: number of summer days and tropical nights, growing season length, number of frost days and ice days, heating and cooling degree days, and the number of days with fresh snow. For the future periods 2020-49, 2045-74 and 2070–2099 the indices are computed using a delta-change approach based on the reference period 1980–2009 for the emission scenarios A1B, A2, and RCP3PD. The scenario data suggest the following relevant findings: (1) a doubling of the number of summer days by the end of the century under the scenarios A1B and A2, (2) an appearance of tropical nights even above 1500 m asl, (3) a possible reduction of the number of frost days by more than 3 months at altitudes higher than 2500 m asl, (4) a decline of heating degree days by about 30 % until the end of the century, and (5) the near disappearance of days with fresh snow at low altitudes. It is also shown that the end-of-the-century projections of all indices strongly depend on the chosen emission scenario. 相似文献
4.
Regional climate models represent a promising tool to assess the regional dimension of future climate change and are widely used in climate impact research. While the added value of regional climate models has been highlighted with respect to a better representation of land-surface interactions and atmospheric processes, it is still unclear whether radiative heating implies predictability down to the typical scale of a regional climate model. As a quantitative assessment, we apply an optimal statistical filter to compare the coherence between observed and simulated patterns of Mediterranean climate change from a global and a regional climate model. It is found that the regional climate model has indeed an added value in the detection of regional climate change, contrary to former assumptions. The optimal filter may also serve as a weighting factor in multi-model averaging. 相似文献
5.
Aude Lemonsu Raphaëlle Kounkou-Arnaud Julien Desplat Jean-Luc Salagnac Valéry Masson 《Climatic change》2013,116(3-4):679-692
The evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a changing climate is analyzed from long-term offline numerical integrations including a specific urban parameterization. This system is forced by meteorological conditions based on present-climate reanalyses (1970–2007), and climate projections (2071–2099) provided by global climate model simulations following two emission scenarios (A1B and A2). This study aims at quantifying the impact of climate change on air temperature within the city and in the surroundings. A systematic increase of 2-meter air temperature is found. In average according to the two scenarios, it reaches +?2.0/2.4°C in winter and +?3.5/5.0°C in summer for the minimum and maximum daily temperatures, respectively. During summer, the warming trend is more pronounced in the surrounding countryside than in Paris and suburbs due to the soil dryness. As a result, a substantial decrease of the strong urban heat islands is noted at nighttime, and numerous events with negative urban heat islands appear at daytime. Finally, a 30% decrease of the heating degree days is quantified in winter between present and future climates. Inversely, the summertime cooling degree days significantly increase in future climate whereas they are negligible in present climate. However, in terms of accumulated degree days, the increase of the demand in cooling remains smaller than the decrease of the demand in heating. 相似文献
6.
Climate change will affect the energy system in a number of ways, one of which is through changes in demands for heating and cooling in buildings. Understanding the potential effect of climate change on heating and cooling demands requires taking into account not only the manner in which the building sector might evolve over time, but also important uncertainty about the nature of climate change itself. In this study, we explore the uncertainty in climate change impacts on heating and cooling requirement by constructing estimates of heating and cooling degree days (HDD/CDDs) for both reference (no-policy) and 550 ppmv CO2 concentration pathways built from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) output and three scenarios of gridded population distribution. The implications that changing climate and population distribution might have for building energy consumption in the U.S. and China are then explored by using the results of HDD/CDDs as inputs to a detailed, building energy model, nested in the long-term global integrated assessment framework, Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The results across the modeled changes in climate and population distributions indicate that unabated climate change would cause building sector’s final energy consumption to decrease modestly (6 % decrease or less depending on climate models) in both the U.S. and China by the end of the century as decreased heating consumption more than offsets increased cooling using primarily electricity. However, global climate change virtually has negligible effect on total CO2 emissions in the buildings sector in both countries. The results also indicate more substantial implications for the fuel mix with increases in electricity and decreases in other fuels, which may be consistent with climate mitigation goals. The variation in results across all scenarios due to variation of population distribution is smaller than variation due to the use of different climate models. 相似文献
7.
利用中国东北地区三个典型城市（哈尔滨、长春和沈阳）1961—2019年的气温、相对湿度等气象资料和TRNSYS软件模拟的能耗资料,分析了气候变化对东北地区办公建筑设计气象参数的影响,研究了气候变化对办公建筑能耗的影响及其影响因子。结果表明：与1961—1990年相比,近30 a（1991—2019年）东北地区三个城市的办公建筑室外设计计算参数,即供暖室外计算温度、冬季空调室外计算温度和夏季空调室外计算温度均有所升高,且夏季空调室外计算温度升幅低于其他两个设计参数,三个城市供暖室外计算温度分别升高了2.1℃、1.7℃和0.2℃;1961—2017年三个城市办公建筑冬季供暖能耗均呈减少趋势,夏季制冷能耗均呈增加趋势,年总能耗呈减少趋势;哈尔滨和长春的变化速率大于沈阳,三个城市的办公建筑年总能耗减少速率分别为5.02 MJ·m-2/10 a、6.15 MJ·m-2/10 a和1.99 MJ·m-2/10 a。气温是影响东北地区城市办公建筑能耗的主要气象因子,分别可以解释三个城市冬季供暖能耗95%、96%和93%的变化和夏季制冷能耗72%、71%和72%的变化;气温每升高1℃,三个城市的冬季采暖能耗将分别减少20.6 MJ·m-2、21 MJ·m-2和18.9 MJ·m-2,夏季制冷能耗将分别增加15.1 MJ·m-2、16.1 MJ·m-2和18.8 MJ·m-2,年总能耗将分别减少5.5 MJ·m-2、4.9 MJ·m-2和0.1 MJ·m-2。 相似文献
8.
Recent Progress in the Impact of the Tibetan Plateau on Climate in China 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
Studies of the impacts of the Tibetan Plateau （TP） on climate in China in the last four years are reviewed. It is reported that temperature and precipitation over the TP have increased during recent decades. From satellite data analysis, it is demonstrated that most of the precipitation over the TP is from deep convection clouds. Moreover, the huge TP mechanical forcing and extraordinary elevated thermal forcing impose remarkable impacts upon local circulation and global climate. In winter and spring, stream flow is deflected by a large obstacle and appears as an asymmetric dipole, making East Asia much colder than mid Asia in winter and forming persistent rainfall in late winter and early spring over South China. In late spring, TP heating contributes to the establishment and intensification of the South Asian high and the abrupt seasonal transition of the surrounding circulations. In summer, TP heating in conjunction with the TP air pump cause the deviating stream field to resemble a cyclonic spiral, converging towards and rising over the TP. Therefore, the prominent Asian monsoon climate over East Asia and the dry climate over mid Asia in summer are forced by both TP local forcing and Eurasian continental forcing.
Due to the longer memory of snow and soil moisture, the TP thermal status both in summer and in late winter and spring can influence the variation of Eastern Asian summer rainfall. A combined index using both snow cover over the TP and the ENSO index in winter shows a better seasonal forecast.
On the other hand, strong sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau in spring contributes significantly to anchor the earliest Asian monsoon being over the eastern Bay of Bengal （BOB） and the western Indochina peninsula. Qualitative prediction of the BOB monsoon onset was attempted by using the sign of meridional temperature gradient in March in the upper troposphere, or at 400 hPa over the TP. It is also demonstrated by a numerical experiment and theoretical study that the heating over the TP lea 相似文献
Due to the longer memory of snow and soil moisture, the TP thermal status both in summer and in late winter and spring can influence the variation of Eastern Asian summer rainfall. A combined index using both snow cover over the TP and the ENSO index in winter shows a better seasonal forecast.
On the other hand, strong sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau in spring contributes significantly to anchor the earliest Asian monsoon being over the eastern Bay of Bengal （BOB） and the western Indochina peninsula. Qualitative prediction of the BOB monsoon onset was attempted by using the sign of meridional temperature gradient in March in the upper troposphere, or at 400 hPa over the TP. It is also demonstrated by a numerical experiment and theoretical study that the heating over the TP lea 相似文献
9.
We employ the heat engine framework to derive a simple method for assessing the strength of irreversible processes in global
climate models (GCMs). Using the explicit energy budget of an idealized GCM, we show that the thermodynamic efficiencies based
on the net heating rate and frictional work rate provides a measure of physical and numerical irreversibilities present in
either open (e.g., the Hadley circulation) or closed (e.g., the general circulation) circulations. In addition, we show that
the Carnot efficiency is useful for assessing the maximum possible efficiency attained by closed circulations. Comparison
of the work-based efficiency with that based on the net heating rate and the Carnot efficiency provides a gauge of how close
to reversible and ideal the circulations are. A series of experiments with the idealized GCM demonstrate the usefulness of
our method and show the sensitivity of an essentially reversible model to changes in physical and numerical parameters such
as rotation period and resolution. 相似文献
10.
根据1961－2010年天津市逐日气象要素,包括平均温度、最高温度、最低温度、相对湿度以及风速,采用统计学方法分析了近50 a天津市的冷暖度日变化以及冬季采暖期和夏季空调期的气候变化特征,探讨了冷暖度日、舒适日数与区域气候变化之间的关系。结果表明：近50 a天津市冷暖度日具有相反的变化趋势,暖度日（HDD）显著下降、冷度日（CDD）显著上升,且暖度日的变化幅度大于冷度日,变化主要集中于80年代之后。冷暖度日与极端温度之间具有显著相关性。采暖期低温日数呈下降趋势、空调期高温日数呈上升趋势。采暖期冷不舒适日数呈显著下降趋势,夏季空调期热不舒适日数呈显著上升趋势,与同期平均气温之间存在显著性相关,且不舒适气候的随机性呈增多趋势。说明在气候变暖背景下,区域气候变化对天津市采暖期和夏季空调期具有重要影响。 相似文献
11.
The effect of ocean mixed layer depth on climate is explored in a suite of slab ocean aquaplanet simulations with different mixed layer depths ranging from a globally uniform value of 50–2.4 m. In addition to the expected increase in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in temperature with decreasing ocean mixed layer depth, the simulated climates differ in several less intuitive ways including fundamental changes in the annual mean climate. The phase of seasonal cycle in temperature differs non-monotonically with increasing ocean mixed layer depth, reaching a maximum in the 12 m slab depth simulation. This result is a consequence of the change in the source of the seasonal heating of the atmosphere across the suite of simulations. In the shallow ocean runs, the seasonal heating of the atmosphere is dominated by the surface energy fluxes whereas the seasonal heating is dominated by direct shortwave absorption within the atmospheric column in the deep ocean runs. The surface fluxes are increasingly lagged with respect to the insolation as the ocean deepens which accounts for the increase in phase lag from the shallow to mid-depth runs. The direct shortwave absorption is in phase with insolation, and thus the total heating comes back in phase with the insolation as the ocean deepens more and the direct shortwave absorption dominates the seasonal heating of the atmosphere. The intertropical convergence zone follows the seasonally varying insolation and maximum sea surface temperatures into the summer hemisphere in the shallow ocean runs whereas it stays fairly close to the equator in the deep ocean runs. As a consequence, the tropical precipitation and region of high planetary albedo is spread more broadly across the low latitudes in the shallow runs, resulting in an apparent expansion of the tropics relative to the deep ocean runs. As a result, the global and annual mean planetary albedo is substantially (20 %) higher in the shallow ocean simulations which results in a colder (7C) global and annual mean surface temperature. The increased tropical planetary albedo in the shallow ocean simulations also results in a decreased equator-to-pole gradient in absorbed shortwave radiation and drives a severely reduced (≈50 %) meridional energy transport relative to the deep ocean runs. As a result, the atmospheric eddies are weakened and shifted poleward (away from the high albedo tropics) and the eddy driven jet is also reduced and shifted poleward by 15° relative to the deep ocean run. 相似文献
12.
13.
Role of the Tibetan Plateau thermal forcing in the summer climate patterns over subtropical Asia 总被引：26，自引：2，他引：26
The mechanism of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) thermal forcing in influencing the summer climate patterns over subtropical Asia
is investigated by means of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis diagnosis. Results show that since the TP is a huge elevated heating source
with the strongest heating in the surface layers in summer, the thermal adaptation results in a shallow cyclonic circulation
near the surface and a deep anticyclonic circulation above it. According to the steady barotropic vorticity equation for large
scales, airflow must converge in the lower layers and diverge in the higher layers over the eastern side of the TP. However,
the western side of the TP is characterized by a reversed structure, i.e., divergence in lower layers but convergence in higher
layers. Hence, pumping and sucking processes bring in upward and downward movement over the east and west sides of the TP,
respectively. Such a circulation is embedded in the large-scale circulation that is forced by the Eurasian continental heating.
Because the TP together with Iran Plateau are located at the central and eastern parts of the continent, and, because the
orography-induced circulation is in phase with the continental scale circulation, the role of the TP thermal forcing is to
intensify the East Asian monsoon to its east and the dry and hot desert climate in mid-Asia to its west. The summertime thermal
forcing of the Rockies and Andes can generate similar circulations along the two subtopics as the TP does since they are located
near the western coasts. But, the lower troposphere poleward flow that is induced by orographic thermal forcing does not coincide
with the poleward flows over the eastern coastal region that is induced by continental heating and the monsoon rainfall in
North and South America is not as strong as in East Asia. However, the equatorward flow and the associated subsidence induced
by the two mountain ranges along the western coasts of both North and South America are in phase with those induced by continental
heating. These contribute to the formation of the stable low stratus clouds and strong long-wave radiative cooling over the
eastern subtropical Pacific regions just off the western coast of the continent. 相似文献
14.
以中国华北地区五大城市办公建筑为例,利用1961—2017年气象数据和TRNSYS软件模拟的供热制冷负荷数据,评估了气候变化背景下华北地区建筑供热制冷负荷的变化。在此基础上,对模拟负荷和气象要素进行多元线性逐步回归分析,揭示了影响建筑供热、制冷负荷的主要气象因子。结果表明：1961—2017年中国华北五大城市供热负荷均呈下降趋势,降幅为0.05（石家庄）—0.13 kWh·m-2·（10 a）-1（呼和浩特）;各城市制冷负荷的变化不同,仅呼和浩特为增多,增幅为0.04 kWh·m-2·（10 a）-1,其余城市制冷负荷无明显变化;从总负荷来看,各城市均呈下降趋势,降幅为0.05（太原）—0.10 kWh·m-2·（10 a）-1（呼和浩特）。由供热制冷负荷与气象要素的回归分析可知,冬季供热负荷主要受气温影响,五大城市的显著增温导致供热负荷减少;与此不同,夏季制冷负荷主要受气温、太阳辐射的共同影响,呼和浩特平均气温和太阳辐射均呈显著上升趋势,导致其制冷负荷显著增加。其他城市气温显著升高,而太阳辐射显著降低,二者的综合作用导致制冷负荷没有明显的变化趋势。总体来看,在气候变暖背景下,中国华北地区冬季供热负荷明显降低,而夏季制冷负荷并未明显增加,导致总负荷显著降低,气候变暖总体上对建筑节能有利。 相似文献
15.
The statistical analysis of two atmospheric general circulation simulations using the ECHAM3 GCM in permanent January conditions are presented. The two simulations utilize different oceanic surface temperatures in the Atlantic as boundary conditions: the cold simulation has SST representing the anomalous cold conditions during the decade 1904-13 while the warm simulation has SST representative for the decade 1951-60 where anomalous warm conditions have been observed. The analysis concentrates on the simulated differences between both experiments within the tropical belt to test the working hypothesis whether changes in the deep tropical heating initiated by the anomalous SST are responsible for the anomalies in the flow and mass field. We present a method which extracts the significant and dynamically consistent signal of the total difference using a multivariate statistical test based on the amplitudes of an a-priori specified mode expansion. These expansion modes are defined from a variant of the Matsuno-Gill linearized reduced gravity model for the tropical atmosphere. The application of the method shows a clear and well defined tropical signal in the flow and mass field which can be understood as the reponse of the ECHAM3 model to a deep heating anomaly not in the vicinity of the anomalous SST but on the neighboring continents especially South America and with opposite sign in remote areas between Indonesia and the dateline. The signal can be summarized as an enhancement of the GCM's tropical East-West circulation with the ascending branch over South America in the warm simulation compared to the cold run. 相似文献
16.
The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate: a 1,000-year climate modeling study 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This study analyzes the atmospheric response to the combined Pacific interannual ENSO and decadal–interdecadal PDO variability,
with a focus on the Pacific-North American (PNA) sector, using a 1,000-year long integration of the Canadian Center for Climate
Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled climate model. Both the tropospheric circulation and the North American temperature
suggest an enhanced PNA-like climate response and impacts on North America when ENSO and PDO variability are in phase. The
anomalies of the centers of action for the PNA-like pattern are significantly different from zero and the anomaly pattern
is field significant. In association with the stationary wave anomalies, large stationary wave activity fluxes appear in the
mid-high latitudes originating from the North Pacific and flowing downstream toward North America. There are significant Rossby
wave source anomalies in the extratropical North Pacific and in the subtropical North Pacific. In addition, the axis of the
Pacific storm track shifts southward with the positive PNA. Atmospheric heating anomalies associated with ENSO variability
are confined primarily to the tropics. There is an anomalous heating center over the northeast Pacific, together with anomalies
with the same polarity in the tropical Pacific, for the PDO variability. The in-phase combination of ENSO and PDO would in
turn provide anomalous atmospheric energy transports towards North America from both the Tropical Pacific and the North Pacific,
which tends to favor the occurrence of stationary wave anomalies and would lead to a PNA-like wave anomaly structure. The
modeling results also confirm our analysis based on the observational record in the twentieth century. 相似文献
17.
It is imperative that climate, energy, and sustainability policy researchers and practitioners grapple with the difficulty of decarbonizing heat, which remains the largest single end-use energy service worldwide. In this study, based on a comparative assessment of five original and representative national surveys in Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom (N = 10,109), we explore public attitudes of household heat decarbonization in Europe. We explore how people conceive of the purposes of low-carbon heat, their preferences for particular forms of heat supply, and their (at times odd) practices of heat consumption and temperature settings. The data reveal four significant challenges to heat decarbonization that are consistent across geographies: 1) High satisfaction with existing, often fossil fuel based, heating systems; 2) Varying and divergent preferences and expectations for thermal comfort; 3) Householders unlikely to change their heating system in the near-term, in part driven by low familiarity and knowledge of alternative systems; and 4) heat satisfaction appears lower as the fuel mix is decarbonized. The paper concludes by connecting these findings with policy and research implications. 相似文献
18.
Climate data is used in many practical applications including energy demand estimations for heating and cooling, agricultural applications, risk assessment, and many more. The required climate data is only available if meteorological observations exist at a given location. In this study, the possibility of replacing long observational records with a few years of numerical weather forecast data is investigated for practical applications requiring temperature data. Observational data from 1980–2010, measured at 700 weather stations in Central Europe are used together with model forecasts of the years 2008–2010. Depending on the station, forecast data capture 90–110% of the standard deviation observed for daily mean and maximum temperatures and slightly less for minimum temperature. Heating and cooling degree days can be estimated with an error of 5–15% in climates where they have a relevance. Based on model data, maps of heating and cooling degree days are computed and the regional uncertainties are quantified using the observational data. The results suggest that numerical weather forecast data can be used for certain practical applications, either as a surrogate of observational data or for quite reliable estimates in locations with no observations. 相似文献
19.
利用天津市地面气象观测站1961—2017年逐小时观测资料,通过TRNSYS软件,对不同节能水平办公建筑供热和制冷能耗,以及居住建筑供热能耗进行动态模拟,定量评估了气候变化对天津市不同节能水平建筑能耗的影响。结果表明：在供暖期和制冷期,温度均呈现显著上升的趋势,而太阳辐射则呈现下降的趋势,受其影响,1961—2017年办公和居住建筑供热能耗呈现显著下降的趋势,制冷能耗呈现微弱的上升趋势,但气候变化对供热能耗的影响要明显强于制冷能耗;随着建筑节能水平的提升,供热和制冷能耗均有一定程度的下降,其中供热能耗的降幅尤为明显,四步节能居住建筑相比于一步到三步节能居住建筑,供热能耗分别下降了53.56%、50.13%和21.25%。对新建建筑及既有建筑的节能改造,应充分考虑不同节能水平对建筑能耗的影响,结合实际需求酌情进行升级改造。除此之外,建筑节能水平的提升,会使其供热和制冷能耗变化量随温度的上升而减小,说明其对气候变化的敏感性在逐渐减弱。因此,提高建筑节能水平,可以更好的应对气候变化,保证其在未来的使用中耗能更低。 相似文献
20.
根据1971—2010年环太湖地区苏州、常州、长兴等9个气象台站日平均气温和日降水量资料,采用EOF正交经验分析法、线性倾向率法、小波分析法和Mann-Kendall检验法研究了环太湖地区近40 a来的气候变化特征。结果表明:1) 1971—2010年间,环太湖地区整体上呈增暖趋势,环太湖地区的季节性增暖存在空间差异,西北部的气温在春、夏季明显升高,而东南部则在秋、冬季明显增暖,1990年前后该地区的增暖率存在完全相反的空间分布。2)该40 a中,降水表现为北部增加,南部减少。整个环太湖地区的降水在冬季普遍呈现增加趋势,春、夏季降水的空间分布差异性大于秋、冬季。3) M orlet小波分析结果表明,环太湖地区年平均温度存在16～17 a和6 a、26 a左右的变化周期;年降水量存在15～16 a和24 a的强显著性变化周期,各地区在年均温、年降水量周期振荡的强度上存在一定的差异。4) Mann-Kendall突变检验显示,1971—2010年环太湖地区各站点均表现为气温由低向高的突变,突变发生在1992—1993年。 相似文献