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1.
Friuli Venezia Giulia is a region located in the North-Eastern part of Italy. It has the Adriatic Sea (Gulf of Trieste) on the South and the Julian and Carnic Alps surrounding it on the North. For these geographical properties thunderstorms and precipitations are common events in the plain of this region.The climatology of thunderstorms and rainfalls, considering 6 h interval periods, is studied in this work. It is shown how the thunderstorm frequency, based on the recording of at least three lightning strikes during the 6 h period, is 16%. The occurrence frequency of at least 1 mm of rain accumulated in 6 h is 24%, while that of at least 5 mm in 6 h is 14%.The daily and monthly distributions of these events are then stratified in three classes, based on their “intensity” (weak, medium and strong), and the different behaviors are analysed. Finally, an explanation for the main monthly rain frequency is sought by looking at only two sounding-derived indices and in particular at their annual cycles. The two indices (related to the potential instability and to the water vapour flux) attempt to summarize the “convective” and “flux” mechanisms for producing rain. It is found that in some particular periods of the year the rain-originating process seems well identifiable, while in many others the two processes seem to be concomitant. 相似文献
2.
This work deals with the analysis of an isolated tornadic supercell thunderstorm that took place on the plain of Friuli Venezia Giulia (Italy) causing several damage. The analysis is performed using different kind of data, looking in the available information for possible signatures that could be helpful in the forecasting and nowcasting procedures. The analysis reveals that rather than a single cause for the tornadic storm development, there is an “interaction” of several effects. In particular, a favorable environment seems to be produced by the interplay between synoptic and mesoscale environments with a fundamental role played by orography. Radar data, in particular Doppler measurements, are fundamental to the recognition and interpretation of the events but in this particular case they could give little useful information for the forecasting and nowcasting procedures. The most robust signals of an environment prone to the onset of severe deep moist convection come from the thermal gradients at the ground and by the vertical profile analysis. The reason why the event took place in that specific place and not in others is still unknown. 相似文献
3.
基于NCEP/GFS资料的中国东部地区雷暴预报研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
基于来自美国国家环境预测中心(NCEP)的GFS(Global Forecasting System)分析及预报场资料,将多个能够表征雷暴发生动力、热力环境的对流因子作为预报因子,通过费希尔判别准则及逐个引入因子法,建立集合多个对流参数的雷暴预报模型,从而进行较长时效(12—24 h)的区域性雷暴预报。依据临界成功指数(CSI)最高的原则,建立最优预报模型,不同地区所选用的对流参数不同,雷暴模型预报雷暴发生与否的临界值也不同,从而不仅能够得到较好的集合多个对流参数的雷暴区域性预报,还能充分考虑不同地区雷暴发生的地域性特点和气候背景。将建立的预报方法应用于2012年6和9月的两次强对流过程的预报,发现雷暴预报模型较好地预报出两次过程的雷暴落区。进一步,为了能够在强天气预报中客观有效地区分出雷暴与暴雨区,引入集合动力因子暴雨预报方法。集合动力因子暴雨预报方法在诊断和追踪强降水的发展演变中表现凸出,而集合对流参数雷暴预报方法则对包含短时强降水、冰雹、大风等在内的对流性天气有较好反映,综合两套预报方法各自的优势,建立了集成动力因子-对流参数强天气预报方法,用于降水和雷暴的预报,同时对雷暴加降水型、雷暴无降水型、降水无雷暴型等强天气进行区分预报。对中国多个典型城市的预报效果分析发现,该方法不仅能够较好地预报出较长时效(24 h)的雷暴和降水落区,对区分降水雷暴、无降水雷暴和无雷暴降水也表现出一定的能力。 相似文献
4.
根据2008—2010年夏季邵阳地区的NCEP全球再分析资料(分辨率为1°×1°)和闪电定位资料,利用支持向量机(SVM)分类方法建立该地区雷暴潜势预报模型,并用测试样本检验了该模型的预报能力,同时与Logistic回归模型和Bayes判别法的预报效果进行了比较。结果表明,SVM模型的预报准确率为86.21%,虚警率为15.25%,漏报率为13.79%。对比三种模型的TSS技术评分,发现使用SVM方法建立的模型对邵阳地区雷暴预报的效果最好,评分值为0.79。因此,SVM方法所建立的模型可以为邵阳地区6 h的雷暴潜势预报提供一定的参考价值。 相似文献
5.
利用ECMWF历史预报资料,从动力、热力、水汽、不稳定条件四个方面选取影响雷暴大风发生的因子,构建多因变量数组,并利用主成分分析确定配料系数及其阈值,在此基础上进行配料,研发了四川省雷暴大风概率预报产品投入应用。2018年汛期应用表明:雷暴大风产品对预报概率超过65%的区域有指示意义,且优于ECMWF数值预报的100 m高度风,在检验的个例中,有效命中率达25%以上。 相似文献
6.
Study of the total lightning activity in a hailstorm 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Joan Montany Serge Soula Nicolau Pineda Oscar van der Velde Pere Clapers Glria Sol Joan Bech D. Romero 《Atmospheric Research》2009,91(2-4):430-437
A thunderstorm that developed over northeastern Spain on 16 June 2006 is analyzed. This severe thunderstorm produced hailstones as large as 40 mm and had a lifetime of 3 h and 30 min. Radar cross-sections show strong vertical development with cloud echo tops reaching an altitude of 13 km. The specific characteristics of the lightning activity of this storm were: (i) a large amount (81%) of negative cloud-to-ground (−CG) flashes with very low peak currents (< 10 kA in absolute value), (ii) a very large proportion of intra-cloud (IC) flashes with an IC/CG ratio reaching about 400, (iii) a large number of “short” IC flashes (with only 1-VHF source according to SAFIR detection), (iv) a large increase of the −CG flash rate and of the CG proportion near the end of the storm. The rate of −CG flashes with a low peak current were observed to evolve similarly to the rates of IC flashes. Most of them have been assumed to be IC flashes misclassified by the Spanish Lightning Detection Network (SLDN). They have been filtered as it is usually done for misclassified +CG flashes. After this filtering, CG flash rates remained very low (< 1 min− 1) with +CG flashes sometimes dominant. All the particular lightning activity characteristics similar to those observed in the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS) campaigns support the hypothesis that this thunderstorm could have had an inverted-polarity or complex charge structure. The maximum IC flash rate (67 min− 1) peaked 24 min before the presence of reflectivity higher than 60 dBZ. The IC activity abruptly decreased during the period when reflectivity was dramatically increasing. The time of maximum reflectivity observed by radar was consistent with the times of reported hail at the ground. 相似文献
7.
The LS-SVM(Least squares support vector machine) method is presented to set up a model to forecast the occurrence of thunderstorms in the Nanjing area by combining NCEP FNL Operational Global Analysis data on 1.0°×1.0° grids and cloud-to-ground lightning data observed with a lightning location system in Jiangsu province during 2007-2008.A dataset with 642 samples,including 195 thunderstorm samples and 447 non-thunderstorm samples,are randomly divided into two groups,one(having 386 samples) for modeling and the rest for independent verification.The predictors are atmospheric instability parameters which can be obtained from the NCEP data and the predictand is the occurrence of thunderstorms observed by the lightning location system.Preliminary applications to the independent samples for a 6-hour forecast of thunderstorm events show that the prediction correction rate of this model is 78.26%,false alarm rate is 21.74%,and forecasting technical score is 0.61,all better than those from either linear regression or artificial neural network. 相似文献
8.
1. Introduction In recent decades, extreme weather events seem to be growing in frequency and risk due to water-related disasters. According to the World Meteorological Or- ganization report (ISDR and WMO, 2004) on World Water Day, 22 March 2004, the economic losses caused by water-related disasters, including floods, droughts and tropical cyclones, are on an increasing trend as follows: the yearly mean in the 1970s was about 131 billion US dollars, 204 billion dollars in the 1980s, and … 相似文献
9.
Dew and rain water collection in the Dalmatian Coast, Croatia 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Passive dew harvesting and rainwater collection requires a very small financial investment but can exploit a free, clean (outside urban/industrial zones) and inexhaustible source of water. This study investigates the relative contributions of dew and rain water in the Mediterranean Dalmatian coast and islands of Croatia, with emphasis on the dry summer season. In addition, we evaluate the utility of transforming abandoned roof rain collectors (“impluviums”) to collect dew water too. Two sites were chosen, an exposed open site on the coast favourable to dew formation (Zadar) and a less favourable site in a cirque of mountains in Komiža (Vis Island). Between July 1, 2003 and October 31, 2006, dew was collected two or three times per day on a 1 m2 inclined (30°) test dew condenser, together with standard meteorological data (air temperature and relative humidity, cloud cover, windspeed and direction). Maximum yields were 0.41 mm in Zadar and 0.6 mm in Komiža. The mean yearly cumulative dew yields were found to be 20 mm (Zadar) and 9.3 mm (Komiža). Because of its physical setting, Komiža represents a poor location for dew collection. However, during the dry season (May to October), monthly cumulative dew water yield can represent up to 38% of water collected by rainfall. In both July 2003 and 2006, dew water represented about 120% of the monthly cumulative rain water. Refurbishing the abandoned impluviums to permit dew collection could then provide useful supplementary water, especially during the dry season. As an example, the 1300 m2 impluvium at Podšpilje near Komiža could provide, in addition to rain water, 14,000 L dew water per year. 相似文献
10.
The remarkable wide range spatial scaling of TRMM precipitation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The advent of space borne precipitation radar has opened up the possibility of studying the variability of global precipitation over huge ranges of scale while avoiding many of the calibration and sparse network problems which plague ground based rain gage and radar networks. We studied 1176 consecutive orbits of attenuation-corrected near surface reflectivity measurements from the TRMM satellite PR instrument. We find that for well-measured statistical moments (orders 0 < q < 2) corresponding to radar reflectivities with dBZ < 57 and probabilities > 10− 6, that the residuals with respect to a pure scaling (power law) variability are remarkably low: ± 6.4% over the range 20,000 km down to 4.3 km. We argue that higher order moments are biased due to inadequately corrected attenuation effects. When a stochastic three — parameter universal multifractal cascade model is used to model both the reflectivity and the minimum detectable signal of the radar (which was about twice the mean), we find that we can explain the same statistics to within ± 4.6% over the same range. The effective outer scale of the variability was found to be 32,000 ± 2000 km. The fact that this is somewhat larger than the planetary scale (20,000 km) is a consequence of the residual variability of precipitation at the planetary scales. With the help of numerical simulations we were able to estimate the three fundamental parameters as α ≈ 1.5, C1 = 0.63 ± 0.02 and H = 0.00 ± 0.01 (the multifractal index, the codimension of the mean and the nonconservation parameter respectively). There was no error estimate on α since although α = 1.5 was roughly the optimum value, this conclusion depended on assumptions about the instrument at both low and high reflectivities. The value H = 0 means that the reflectivity can be modeled as a pure multiplicative process, i.e. that the reflectivity is conserved from scale to scale. We show that by extending the model down to the inner “relaxation scale” where the turbulence and rain decouple (in light rain, typically about 40 cm), that even without an explicit threshold, the model gives quite reasonable predictions about the frequency of occurrence of perceptible precipitation rates.While our basic findings (the scaling, outer scale) are almost exactly as predicted twenty years ago on the basis on ground based radar and the theory of anisotropic (stratified) cascades, they are incompatible with classical turbulence approaches which require at least two isotropic turbulence regimes separated by a meso-scale “gap”. They are also incompatible with classical meteorological phenomenology which identifies morphology with mechanism and breaks up the observed range 4 km–20 000 km into several subranges each dominated by different mechanisms. Finally, since the model specifies the variability over huge ranges, it shows promise for resolving long standing problems in rain measurement from both (typically sparse) rain gage networks and radars. 相似文献
11.
In the Atacama Desert, the narrow littoral plain and the adjacent mountain range have a unique climate. This area is locally called the “coastal desert with abundant cloudiness”, and extends from the coastline up to an elevation of 1000 m. The climate is designated as being BWn according to Köppen's Climate Classification as adapted for Chile. In the original classification the acronym (Bn) is used for foggy environments. Toward the east a “normal desert” climate (BW) is found. This is known as one of the most extreme deserts of the world. In the BWn areas there are meteorological differences between low and high elevation zones. The climate of the coastal plains and the mountains is described in this paper in order to show that there is an area where the climate differs from those classified as BWn and BW in the Chilean Climate Classification. This area is located between 650 and 1200 m a.s.l. and contains several fog oases or lomas vegetation, rich in biodiversity and endemism.The weather is warmer near sea level, with an annual average temperature of 18 °C. At high elevation sites like Alto Patache, the temperature decreases at a rate of 0.7 °C for every 100-m increase in altitude. The average annual minimum temperature often approaches 1 °C in winter, while the mean annual temperature range is significant (8.3 °C in Los Cóndores). The mean monthly relative humidity in Alto Patache is over 80%, except during the summer months. During autumn, winter and spring high elevation fog is present in the study area at altitudes ranging from 650 m up to 1060 m, giving annual water yields of 0.8 to 7 L m− 2 day− 1. If vegetation is used as an indicator, the foggy zone lies between 650 m a.s.l. and 1200 m a.s.l. About 70% of the mountain range experiences the foggy climate, as opposed to the coastal plains that are characterized by a cloudy climate. 相似文献
12.
Thunderstorms are the perennial feature of Kolkata (22° 32???N, 88° 20???E), India during the premonsoon season (April?CMay). Precise forecast of these thunderstorms is essential to mitigate the associated catastrophe due to lightning flashes, strong wind gusts, torrential rain, and occasional hail and tornadoes. The present research provides a composite stability index for forecasting thunderstorms. The forecast quality detection parameters are computed with the available indices during the period from 1997 to 2006 to select the most relevant indices with threshold ranges for the prevalence of such thunderstorms. The analyses reveal that the lifted index (LI) within the range of ?5 to ?12?°C, convective inhibition energy (CIN) within the range of 0?C150?J/kg and convective available potential energy (CAPE) within the ranges of 2,000 to 7,000?J/kg are the most pertinent indices for the prevalence thunderstorms over Kolkata during the premonsoon season. A composite stability index, thunderstorm prediction index (TPI) is formulated with LI, CIN, and CAPE. The statistical skill score analyses show that the accuracy in forecasting such thunderstorms with TPI is 99.67?% with lead time less than 12?h during training the index whereas the accuracies are 89.64?% with LI, 60?% with CIN and 49.8?% with CAPE. The performance diagram supports that TPI has better forecast skill than its individual components. The forecast with TPI is validated with the observation of the India Meteorological Department during the period from 2007 to 2009. The real-time forecast of thunderstorms with TPI is provided for the year?2010. 相似文献
13.
基于BPSO-NBayes的雷暴释用预报技术研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
提出了一种新的雷暴预报法,即二进制粒子群-朴素贝叶斯分类器(Binary Particle Swarm Optimization-Naive Bayesian Classifiers,BPSO-NBayes)方法,以福州、连城、宁波3站为例,对使用T511数值预报产品站点的雷暴释用预报技术进行研究。利用2010—2014年T511数值预报产品和单站观测资料,使用BPSO-NBayes方法,建立了0~72 h雷暴预报模型,并与Fisher判别准则和Bayes判别准则进行比较。预报结果表明,BPSO-NBayes模型临界成功指数都在0.29以上,平均值达到0.33以上,是3种方法中最好的,空报率都在0.59以下,漏报率在0.60以下,而且变化幅度很小。BPSO-NBayes模型明显优于Fisher判别准则和Bayes判别准则,具有良好的稳定性和预报能力。 相似文献
14.
人工神经网络法和线性回归法对降水相态的预报效果对比 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
本文主要对相同条件下线性回归法(LR)和人工神经网络法(ANN)对降雨、雨夹雪和降雪3种降水相态的预报效果进行了对比检验.选取降水发生时和发生前6h的地面2 m温度、露点温度作为预报因子,对降雨、雨夹雪和降雪进行预报.应用国家气象中心2001-2011年我国地面756站实况观测资料,其中应用2001-2010年资料对方法进行训练,2011年资料用来对比检验预报效果.结果显示,(1)两种方法对3种相态降水都有一定的预报能力,对降雪预报最好,其次是降雨和雨夹雪;(2)两种方法对北方的雨雪分界线预报比对南方的好;(3)无论是对全国还是长江中下游流域,在相同条件下,ANN法的预报效果大都优于LR法,当温度和露点温度预报准确时,ANN法对北方的雨雪分界线能进行较准确的预报. 相似文献
15.
The lifetime of electric energy in the atmosphere is introduced and investigated as is the total electric energy of the atmosphere related to the total mean rate of electric energy dissipation. This lifetime, as determined from general estimations and convenient analytical expressions, turns out to be very small – from about 10 to about 100 s, depending on the assumptions on the control parameters of principal sources in the global electric circuit. In particular the energy lifetime is less than the relaxation time of the “global condenser” and field relaxation time near the ground surface. It is explained by the high dissipative rate of the electric energy in the atmosphere, taking into account that the regions mainly contributing to the total energy and its dissipative rate are connected to the altitudes of active parts of electrified (thunderstorm) clouds in the atmosphere with exponentially increasing conductivity. 相似文献
16.
Charge source of cloud-to-ground lightning and charge structure of a typical thunderstorm in the Chinese Inland Plateau 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Tinglong Zhang Xiushu Qie Tie Yuan Guangshu Zhang Tong Zhang Yang Zhao 《Atmospheric Research》2009,92(4):475-480
GPS-synchronized measurements of electric (E) field changes induced by lightning flashes were recorded at six stations in the northeastern verge of the Tibetan Plateau. The height and magnitude of charge neutralized by 65 return strokes, including 16 negative cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes and 2 positive CG flashes, have been fitted with the nonlinear least-square method based on the E field changes of CG flashes observed in a typical thunderstorm with larger-than-usual lower positive charge center (LPCC). Results show that the height of the charge region neutralized by negative CG flashes ranges from 3 km to 5 km above the ground, corresponding to an ambient temperature between − 2 °C and − 15 °C. For the two positive CG flashes, the neutralized charge regions are located at a height of about 5.5 km and the ambient temperature is about − 18 °C, indicating the existence of upper positive charge in the thunderstorm. 相似文献
17.
本文利用绵阳机场2010～2014年逐时气象观测资料、温江站探空资料与绵阳市闪电定位仪资料,通过探空资料计算各对流参数与雷暴发生的相关系数,筛选相关系数高的对流参数作为预报因子,并探讨各预报因子的物理意义。分别用事件概率回归(REEP)、Fisher判别分析以及指标叠加三种方法制作雷暴潜势预报,其中指标叠加法CSI评分最高,并且可以通过累加值N的大小来确定雷暴发生概率。用指标叠加法试报机场2015年6～8月雷暴,临界成功指数CSI=52.9%,击中率POD=81.8%,利用该方法对绵阳机场周边(市辖区范围)航路上的雷暴也有较好的预报能力。 相似文献
18.
Local flash flood storms with a rapid hydrological response are a real challenge for quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). It is relevant to assess space domains, to which the QPF approaches are applicable. In this paper an attempt is made to evaluate the forecasting capability of a high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model by means of area-related QPF verification. The results presented concern two local convective events, which occurred in the Czech Republic (CR) on 13 and 15 July 2002 and caused local flash floods. We used the LM COSMO model (Lokall Model of the COSMO consortium) adapted to the horizontal resolution of 2.8 km over a model domain covering the CR. The 18 h forecast of convective precipitation was verified by using radar rainfall totals adjusted to the measured rain gauge data. The grid point-related root mean square error (RMSE) value was calculated over a square around the grid point under the assumption that rainfall values were randomly distributed within the square. The forecast accuracy was characterized by the mean RMSE over the whole verification domain. We attempt to show a dependence of both the RMSE field and the mean RMSE on the square size. The importance of a suitable merger between the radar and rain gauge datasets is demonstrated by a comparison between the verification results obtained with and without the gauge adjustment. The application of verification procedure demonstrates uncertainties in the precipitation forecasts. The model was integrated with initial conditions shifted by 0.5° distances. The four verifications, corresponding to the shifts in the four directions, show differences in the resulting QPF, which depend on the size of verification area and on the direction of the shift. 相似文献
19.
Intracloud discharge and the correlated basic charge structure of a thunderstorm in Zhongchuan, a Chinese Inland Plateau region 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The intracloud (IC) discharge is closely related to the charge structure of thunderstorms. The location, charge moment and polarity of intracloud discharges have been analyzed by using the electric field changes from a 7-site network of slow antennas synchronized by GPS with 1 μs time resolution in the area of Zhongchuan in the Chinese Inland Plateau. Ten IC flashes, from a storm on August 20, 2004, have been fitted by using the non-linear least-square solution. The results show that five IC flashes occurred between the main negative charge region and the lower positive charge region and other five between the main negative charge region and the upper positive charge region during the mature stage of the thunderstorm. The centers of discharge were 3.2–5.6 km and 6.8–7.7 km above sea level. The neutralized moments were about 4.56–61.0 C km and 1.06–15.9 C km. It suggests that the charge structure related to the lightning discharge can be represented by a tripole but with a strong positive charge region in the lower part of the thunderstorm, with the lower positive charge region taking an active role in the discharge. 相似文献
20.
银川河东机场小样本雷暴分类客观预报方法研究 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
利用2000—2016年欧洲中心再分析资料、探空及地面自动气象站观测资料,根据天气过程的强度和对应物理量,分别对银川河东机场雷暴伴随大风、降水等不同天气现象类别进行定量化转换,采用峰度偏度系数、χ~2以及Q-Q图3种方法对定量转换的数据进行正态性检验,结果表明:按天气现象分类的样本服从正态分布,未分类样本基本服从。利用逐步回归、多元回归、非线性回归、BP人工神经元网络以及支持向量机5种方法,分别建立了雷暴现象与强度预报模型。结果表明:BP网络以及SVM对天气现象的预报能力较强;分类逐步、多元以及非线性回归模型分别对弱雨、强雨以及大风和降雨同时发生的天气强度预报效果较好。并在此基础上通过最优分析设计了河东机场不同种类雷暴天气定性和定量预报相结合的业务系统。 相似文献