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1.
冬季黑潮海域异常加热与北太平洋大气环流的耦合关系 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用NCEP/NCAR和OAFlux月平均资料,采用SVD方法分析冬季黑潮海域的热通量和北太平洋500 hPa位势高度场之间的关系。第1对奇异向量占总方差的86.24%,表现为黑潮北部海域异常多的放热和北太平洋中西部的500 hPa位势高度场异常低。将正负异常年的各气象要素的距平场进行合成分析后表明：当阿留申低压增强（减弱）时,黑潮海域上空的西北风增强（减弱）,导致近地面层大气温度降低（升高）,使得热通量异常释放增加（减少）,从而降低（升高）了海表面温度。在黑潮海域及其下游,温度场在纬向垂直方向是斜压结构,位势高度场是相当正压结构,反映的是冷低压（暖脊）结构。通过分析风场无旋分量和垂直速度的距平发现,在中纬度地区存在距平的纬向环流圈：大气在北太平洋中部的低层上升（下沉）,在对流层高层（低层）分别向西、向东运动,在黑潮海域和北美西部下沉（上升）,增强（减弱）了中纬度纬向环流圈（MZC）。 相似文献
2.
3.
东亚季风环流演变的主要模态及其与中国东部降水异常的联系 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用美国国家环境预报中心和国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)再分析环流资料、美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)重构的海温资料和中国国家气象信息中心(NMIC)整理的752个测站降水资料,对东亚地区季风环流季节演变主要模态及其与中国东部降水异常的关系进行了分析。结果表明,东亚地区850hPa季风环流季节演变存在两个主要模态,第一模态主要受热带印度洋海温和赤道东太平洋海温偏低背景下印度洋偶极(IOD)演变过程控制;第二模态主要受赤道东太平洋ENSO循环和IOD演变控制。对应第一模态,夏季华北多雨,长江流域少雨;对应第二模态,夏季华北、长江流域多雨,淮河、华南少雨。近50年两模态发生了明显改变,与降水变化有很好的对应关系。 相似文献
4.
Using reanalysis data provided by the U.S.National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research,the potential relationship between the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and blocking highs in three key regions of Eurasia (Ural,Baikal,and Okhotsk) from 1950 to 2008 is analyzed.Composite analysis of 500 hPa geopotential height field during different stages of ENSO reveals that in the winters of El Ni?o (EN) years,there is significant negative anomaly of geopotential height in the three key regions.In the winters of La Ni?a (LN) years,on the other hand,significant positive anomaly of geopotential height is observed in Eastern Ural,Baikal,and Okhotsk.In summer,Okhotsk exhibits positive anomaly,which is significant at a confidence level of 90% by Student’s t-test during the developing stage of an LN year.In the developing stage of an EN year,geopotential height field at 500 hPa manifests positive (negative) anomaly in Baikal (Ural and Okhotsk),while the geopotential height field at 500 hPa exhibits positive (negative) anomaly in Ural and Okhotsk (Baikal) during the decaying stage of both EN and LN years.However,these abnormities are insignificant in a developing EN year,decaying EN year,and the summer of a decaying LN year.By analyzing 500 hPa geopotential height field during different phases of the ENSO cycle,it is observed that results of the case study are consistent with those of composite analysis.Annual average blocking is likewise examined during the different stages of ENSO from 1950 to 2008.Combined with composite analysis and case study,results indicate that blockings in the three key regions are suppressed (enhanced) during the winters of EN (LN) years.In summer,the influence of ENSO on the blockings in the three key regions is not as significant as that in winter.Evidently,developing LN may enhance blockings in Okhotsk.Influence factors on blockings are various and complex.This paper indicates that the influence of ENSO on blockings cannot be neglected,and that it is crucial to related operational forecasting as a potential signal. 相似文献
5.
利用1980~2014年CRU TS3.24月平均气温数据和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了中国东北暖季（5~9月）气温的时空变化特征及其相应的大气环流状况。结果表明:中国东北暖季气温主要表现为全区一致型和南北反位相型两个模态,二者总解释方差高达86%。全区一致型具有明显的年代际变化特征,并在1990年代中期发生了显著的年代际突变,而南北反位相型具有明显的年际和年代际变化特征。全区一致型增暖对应着中国东北地区上空500 hPa位势高度的正异常和850 hPa的反气旋环流异常。当500 hPa位势高度南北反相时,对应于中国东北暖季气温的南北反位相型。进一步分析表明中国东北暖季气温的全区一致型及其1990年代中期的年代际突变与日本海及黑潮延伸区的海温异常及太平洋年代际振荡和大西洋多年代际振荡指数紧密相关。菲律宾以东的西太平洋、北太平洋中部、我国东南沿海、靠近北美东北部的北大西洋等海域的海温异常对中国东北暖季气温全区一致型的出现具有一定的预测作用。而南北反位相变化型与黑潮延伸区的海温异常关系显著,与大尺度指数的相关普遍不明显。在1990年代中期突变前,南北反位相型受到ENSO事件的影响,之后影响不显著。 相似文献
6.
利用53年的NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和英国气象局Hadley气候预测和研究中心的海表面温度资料,使用SVD方法研究了东亚-北太平洋地区表层海温(SST)异常与大气环流异常间的主要耦合模态.分析结果表明,中纬度北太平洋地区存在两种主要的海-气耦合模态,第一模态是海温异常分布的纬向型,第二模态主要表现为经向海温差异分布.两种空间耦合模态共同反映出中纬度北太平洋地区大气和海洋的异常中心有很强的局地耦合性.在第一模态的正(负)异常年,东亚-北太平洋地区主要为负(正)的降水异常,在第二模态的正(负)异常年,东亚和北太平洋的大部分地区出现降水正(负)异常,北美西岸及以西的部分区域出现降水的负(正)异常.两个模态所对应的降水差异显示,海气耦合模态的循环变化有利于形成我国降水分布南北差异的改变. 相似文献
7.
A new empirical approach for the seasonal prediction of annual Atlantic tropical storm number (ATSN) was developed using precipitation and 500 hPa geopotential height data from the preceding January-February and April-May. The 2.5º×2.5º resolution reanalysis data from both the US National Center for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) were applied. The model was cross-validated using data from 1979-2002. The ATSN predictions from the two reanalysis models were correlated with the observations with the anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) of 0.79 (NCEP/NCAR) and 0.78 (ECMWF) and the multi-year mean absolute prediction errors (MAE) of 1.85 and 1.76, respectively. When the predictions of the two models were averaged, the ACC increased to 0.90 and the MAE decreased to 1.18, an exceptionally high score. Therefore, this new empirical approach has the potential to improve the operational prediction of the annual tropical Atlantic storm frequency. 相似文献
8.
Western Pacific Jet Stream Anomalies at 200 hPa in Winter Associated with Oceanic Surface Heating and Transient Eddy Activity 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：3 
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下载免费PDF全文 The relationships between the 200-hPa westerly jet stream anomalies over the East Asian coastal water- western Pacific(WPJS),and the oceanic surface heating and synoptic-scale transient eddy(STE)activity anomalies over the North Pacific in wintertime are examined by using ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.The analysis demonstrates that the surface heating and the STE anomalies have different patterns, corresponding to the three WPJS anomalous modes,respectively.In the first WPJS anomalous mode,the WPJS main part shows no robust anomaly.The anomalous westerly wind,occurring over the mid-latitude central-eastern Pacific past the date line is associated with the anomalous heating presenting both in the tropical central-eastern Pacific past the date line and the center of the North Pacific basin.Meanwhile,the STE anomaly appears around the region of the anomalous zonal wind.The fluctuation in jet strength shown in the second WPJS mode is strongly related to the heating anomaly in the Kuroshio Current region and the STE anomaly in the jet exit region.The third mode demonstrates a northward/southward shift of the WPJS,which has a statistical connection with a south-north dipolar pattern of the heating anomaly in the western North Pacific separated at 35°N.Meanwhile,the STE spatial displacement is in conjunction with jet shifts in the same direction.The heating anomaly has a close connection with the atmospheric circulation, and thus changes the mid-latitude baroclinicity,leading to the STE anomaly,which then reinforces the WPJS anomaly via internal atmospheric dynamics. 相似文献
9.
东亚夏季风降水年代际变异模态及其与太平洋年代际振荡的关系 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
利用全球陆地月平均降水资料、英国气象局哈德莱中心的月平均海表温度距平(SSTA)资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析大气环流资料,探讨东亚夏季风降水年代际变率及其与太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)的联系。研究指出:东亚夏季风降水年代际变异模态以及PDO均在1976年前后呈现显著的年代际转折,并且东亚夏季风降水与PDO在年代际尺度上具有较好的相关关系。PDO能够在对流层低层激发出与年代际东亚夏季风环流较为相似的大气环流异常特征,表明东亚夏季风环流的年代际变化可能受大气外强迫因子PDO在对流层低层的外源强迫作用影响,最终导致东亚夏季风降水发生年代际变化。 相似文献
10.
This study revises Weare’s latent heat parameterization scheme and conducts an associated
theoretic analysis. The revised Weare’s scheme is found to present potentially better results than Zebiak’s
scheme. The Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model, initialized by the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis of
wind stress anomaly at 925 hPa, is referred to as the ZCW coupled model. The atmosphere models of the
ZCW coupled model that use Zebiak’s scheme and the revised Weare’s scheme are referred to as the
ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models, respectively. The coupled ocean-atmosphere models that use
Zebiak’s scheme and the revised Weare’s scheme are referred to as the ZCW0and ZCWN coupled models,
respectively. The simulations between the ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models and between the ZCW0
and ZCWN coupled models are analyzed. The results include: (1) The evolution of heat, meridional wind
and divergence anomalies simulated by similar ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models, although the
magnitudes of the former are larger than those of the latter; (2) The prediction skill of the Ni?o3 index
from 1982 to 1999 by the ZCWN coupled model shows improvement compared with those by the ZCW0
coupled model; (3) The analysis of El Ni?o events in 1982/1983, 1986/1987, and 1997/1998 and La Ni?a
events in 1984/1985, 1988/1989, and 1998/2000 suggests that the ZCWN coupled model is better than the
ZCW0 coupled model in predicting warm event evolution and cold event generation. The results also show
the disadvantage of the ZCWN coupled model for predicting El Ni?o 相似文献
11.
中国西南地区春季降水的时空变化及其异常的环流特征 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
利用中国气象局国家气象信息中心整编的中国西南地区97站逐日观测资料及美国国家环境预报中心/大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)再分析资料,对中国西南地区1961—2013年春季降水的时空分布特征进行了分析,并研究了造成西南地区春季降水异常的环流成因。结果表明,中国西南地区春季降水的主模态呈现为全区一致型,该模态具有明显的2.5—3.5a及准5a的活动周期。对流层中低层副热带地区的异常气旋式环流波列形成的异常气流将洋面上空的水汽向中国西南内陆地区输送,暖湿气流与异常活跃的北方冷空气活动相配合,加上西南地区大气低层辐合、高层辐散而产生抽吸作用,使得当地对流层中低层出现较强的沿地形抬升的上升气流,从而有利于西南地区降水的形成,反之亦然。造成环流异常的原因除了与西南地区、热带地区的异常辐合/辐散运动造成的位涡扰动能量有关,亦与中高纬度波扰动能量下欧亚大陆下游地区的频散及辐合有关。此外,冬季1月的青藏高原地面加热场特征可作为预测后期西南地区春季降水异常变化的一个前期信号。 相似文献
12.
冬季黑潮区SST异常和东亚夏季风的相关研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过EOF分析确定冬季黑潮区SST的主要分布形势，然后用SVD方法揭示了东亚夏季风异常与冬季黑潮区SST异常的最佳耦合模态。结果发现，冬季黑潮区SST全区变化较一致，表现为均匀的冷暖分布，当黑潮区SST冷异常时，后期夏季热带季风槽增强，梅雨锋减弱，热带季风环流圈加强；东亚夏季风中的西南气流盛行，东南气流的强度增强但范围减小，北风减弱。暖异常时则相反。 相似文献
13.
冬季太平洋SSTA对北太平洋风暴轴年际变化的影响 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
研究了冬季北太平洋风暴轴的年际异常及其与500hPa高度以及热带和北太平洋海温的联系。结果发现，冬季北太平洋风暴轴中心有线性增强、偏北、偏东的趋势。对15个冬季北太平洋风暴轴区域 500 hPa天气尺度滤波位势高度方差与同期热带和北太平洋海温的 SVD分析表明，第一对空间典型分布反映了 ENSO区海温异常对风暴轴年际变化的影响，而第二对空间典型分布反映了黑潮区域海温异常对风暴轴年际变化的影响。进一步的合成分析显示，ENSO区海温异常可以通过激发500hPa高度场上的PNA遥相关型影响冬季北太平洋风暴轴的东西摆动和中、东端的强度变化，而黑潮区域海温异常则通过激发 500 hPa高度场上的 WP遥相关型，主要影响冬季北太平洋风暴轴中、西端的强度变化和南北位移。 相似文献
14.
冬季北太平洋风暴轴的年际变化及其与500hPa高度以及热带和北太平洋海温的联系 总被引：43，自引：9，他引：34
文中研究了冬季北太平洋风暴轴的年际异常及其与500hPa高度以及热带和北太平洋海温的联系。结果发现,各年冬季北太平洋风暴轴的中心强度和位置具有显著的年际差异。对15个冬季北太平洋风暴轴区域500hPa天气尺度滤波位势高度方差与热带和北太平洋海温的SVD分析表明,第一对空间典型分布反映了赤道中、东太平洋区域海温异常对风暴轴年际变化的影响,而第二对空间典型分布反映了黑潮区域海温异常对风暴轴年际变化的影响。进一步的合成分析显示,赤道中、东太平洋区域海温异常主要影响冬季北太平洋风暴轴的东西摆动和中、东端的强度变化,而黑潮区域海温异常则主要影响冬季北太平洋风暴轴中、西端的强度变化和南北位移。并且这种影响分别与500hPa高度场上的PNA遥相关型和WP遥相关型有密切联系。 相似文献
15.
Forty one years (1958–1998) of NCEP reanalysis data are used to perform a set of statistical analyses, investigating the
interactions between the sea surface temperature (SST), the storm track activity (STA) and the time mean atmospheric circulation
in the North Atlantic-Europe (NAE) region. When the atmospheric region of study is restricted to Europe, the singular value
decomposition (SVD) lead-lag analysis between seasonal 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) and SST captures a significant covariance
between a summer SST anomaly and a strong winter anticyclonic anomaly over Europe. The summer SST pattern is close to the
first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of SST for the consecutive months J-A-S-O-N. The same analysis, but extending the
atmospheric area of interest to the entire NAE region, points out the same signal with a phase shift of one month. A more
zonally oriented North-Atlantic-Oscillation-like (NAO) pattern is then found as the SST structure remains practically unchanged.
This summer SST anomaly is found to persist through surface heat fluxes exchanges until winter, when it can finally have an
impact on the atmospheric circulation. Composites are made from the former SST SVD scores, showing the winter STA and different
transient and stationary eddies diagnostics associated with the extreme positive and negative events of the SST anomaly. These
suggest that the SST anomaly induces an anomalous stationary wave in winter, creating an initially small anticyclonic anomaly
over Europe. Anomalous transient eddies located over northern Europe then strengthen this anomaly and maintain it during winter,
thus acting as a positive feedback.
Received: 15 September 2000 / Accepted: 17 April 2001 相似文献
16.
By employing the singular value decomposition(SVD) analysis, we have investigated in the present paper the covariations between circulation changes in the Northern(NH) and Southern Hemispheres(SH) and their associations with ENSO by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the reconstructed monthly NOAA SST, and CMAP precipitation along with NOAA Climate Prediction Center(CPC) ENSO indices. A bi-hemispheric covariation mode(hereafter BHCM) is explored, which is well represented by the first mode of the SVD analysis of sea surface pressure anomaly(SLPA-SVD1). This SVD mode can explain 57.36% of the total covariance of SLPA. BHCM varies in time with a long-term trend and periodicities of 3—5 years. The long term trend revealed by SVD1 shows that the SLP increases in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific but decreases in the western Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean, which facilitates easterlies in the lower troposphere to be intensified and El Ni觡o events to occur with lower frequency. The spatial pattern of the BHCM looks roughly symmetric about the equator in the tropics, whereas it is characterized by zonal disturbances in the mid-latitude of NH and is highly associated with AAO in the mid-latitude of SH. On inter-annual time scales, the BHCM is highly correlated with ENSO. The atmosphere in both the NH and SH responds to sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial region, while the contemporaneous circulation changes in the NH and SH in turn affect the occurrence of El Ni觡o/La Ni觡a. In boreal winter, significant temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with the BHCM are found worldwide. Specifically, in the positive phase of the BHCM,temperature and precipitation are anomalously low in eastern China and some other regions of East Asia. These results are helpful for us to better understand interactions between circulations in the NH and SH and the dynamical mechanisms behind these interactions. 相似文献
17.
Based on NCEP/NCAR （National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmo- spheric Research） reanalysis data from 1979 to 2010, the impacts of two types of E1 Nino on atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere （SH） are analyzed. It is shown thaL when a warming event occurs in the equatorial eastern Pacific （EP E1 Nino）, there is a negative sea level pressure （SLP） anomaly in the east- ern Pacific and a positive one in the western Pacific. Besides, there exists a negative anomaly between 40°S and 60°S and a positive anomaly to the south of 60°S. When a warming event in the central Pacific （CP E1 Nino） occurs, there appears a negative SLP anomaly in the central Pacific and a positive SLP anomaly in the eastern and western Pacific, but the SLP anomalies are not so evident in the SH extratropics. In particular, the Pacific-South America （PSA） pattern induced by the CP E1 Nino is located more northwestward, with a weaker anomaly compared with the EP E1 Nino. This difference is directly related with the different position of heating centers associated with the two types of E1 Nino events. Because the SST anomaly associated with CP E1 Nino is located more westward than that associated with EP El Nino, the related heating center tends to move westward and the response of SH atmospheric circulation to the tropical heating changes accordingly, thus exciting a different position of the PSA pattern. It is also noted that the local meridional cell plays a role in the SH high latitudes during EP E1 Nino. The anomalous ascending motion due to the enhancement of convection over the eastern Pacific leads to an enhancement of the local Hadley cell and the meridional cell in the middle and high latitudes, which in turn induces an anomalous descending motion and the related positive anomaly of geopotential height over the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea. 相似文献
18.
Statistical Downscaling for Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction
of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in the Asia-Pacific
Region Using Geopotential Height Field 总被引：16，自引：1，他引：15
The 21-yr ensemble predictions of model precipitation and circulation in the East Asian and western North Pacific （Asia-Pacific） summer monsoon region （0°-50°N, 100° 150°E） were evaluated in nine different AGCM, used in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center （APCC） multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction system. The analysis indicates that the precipitation anomaly patterns of model ensemble predictions are substantially different from the observed counterparts in this region, but the summer monsoon circulations are reasonably predicted. For example, all models can well produce the interannual variability of the western North Pacific monsoon index （WNPMI） defined by 850 hPa winds, but they failed to predict the relationship between WNPMI and precipitation anomalies. The interannual variability of the 500 hPa geopotential height （GPH） can be well predicted by the models in contrast to precipitation anomalies. On the basis of such model performances and the relationship between the interannual variations of 500 hPa GPH and precipitation anomalies, we developed a statistical scheme used to downscale the summer monsoon precipitation anomaly on the basis of EOF and singular value decomposition （SVD）. In this scheme, the three leading EOF modes of 500 hPa GPH anomaly fields predicted by the models are firstly corrected by the linear regression between the principal components in each model and observation, respectively. Then, the corrected model GPH is chosen as the predictor to downscale the precipitation anomaly field, which is assembled by the forecasted expansion coefficients of model 500 hPa GPH and the three leading SVD modes of observed precipitation anomaly corresponding to the prediction of model 500 hPa GPH during a 19-year training period. The cross-validated forecasts suggest that this downscaling scheme may have a potential to improve the forecast skill of the precipitation anomaly in the South China Sea, western North Pacific and the East Asia Pacific regions, wh 相似文献
19.
青藏高原冬春积雪异常与中国东部地区夏季降水关系的进一步分析 总被引：30，自引：0，他引：30
为了进一步分析青藏高原(下称高原)冬春积雪异常与中国东部地区夏季降水的关系,利用1957～1994年高原地区的实测雪深、1951～1994年6～8月中国东部地区226个均匀分布测站的实测月降水量,以及美国国家环境监测中心/国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)1958～1994年1～12月的再分析格点值资料,对比分析了高原冬、春季多、少雪年后期中国东部地区夏季(6～8月)降水分布和环流的平均特征,也分析了高原积雪影响的机理.分析结果表明:1) 平均来说,多雪年夏季长江及江南北部降水可偏多1～2成,华北和华南的降水则偏少1～3成;少雪年夏季江淮流域及湘、黔地区少雨,华北和华南多雨.2)高原冬、春积雪不仅影响了后期高原的热状况,而且影响了后期东亚大气环流的季节变化和南亚与东亚的夏季风环流. 相似文献
20.
This paper investigates the interannual variation of the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH)
intensity based on the data compiled by the Chinese National Climate Center. Monthly reanalysis data
from National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research
(NCEP/NCAR) are also used to study the lead-lag relationship between WPSH intensity and surface heat
flux anomalies. The three major findings are as follows: First, WPSH intensity presents good seasonal
persistence, especially from winter to the ensuing summer. Persistence is more significant after 1977,
especially from spring to summer, and from summer to autumn; persistence of anticyclonic anomalies are
significantly better than cyclonic anomalies. Second, surface heat flux tends to present opposite anomalous
patterns between the strong and weak years of the WPSH intensity, which is especially valid at the latent
heat flux over the ocean. Simultaneous correlations between surface heat flux and WPSH intensity in each
of the seasons are marked by similar key areas. Finally, surface heat flux from the preceding winter of a
strong summer WPSH is quite similar to strong spring WPSH, but the positive anomalies over the
northwest Pacific and south of Japan are notably stronger. The situations in the weak years are similar
except for those over the northwest Pacific: winter surface heat flux shows negative anomalies for a weak
spring WPSH, but positive anomalies for a weak summer WPSH. It is suggested that surface heat flux in
the previous winter plays an important role in maintaining the WPSH intensity in the ensuing spring and
summer. 相似文献