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1.
《湖北气象》2018,(5)
频繁的极端降水事件使暴雨强度公式编制过程中的误差控制变得越来越困难。利用宁夏银川国家气象站1961—2016年分钟降水资料,采用指数、耿贝尔、P-III等概率模型进行雨强-重现期的曲线拟合和最小二乘法、高斯牛顿法进行暴雨强度公式参数推求,编制银川市暴雨强度公式,探讨干旱区暴雨强度公式的误差控制和优化策略。结果表明:(1)干旱区强降水样本少、变率大,针对编制暴雨强度公式过程中曲线拟合和参数求解这两个重要步骤过程中误差难以控制的缺陷,设计了一种新的误差控制策略,将误差的两步控制改变为综合控制,从而可使公式推算过程的误差达到最小。(2)银川夏半年平均气温从20世纪90年代中后期开始明显升高,短历时(尤其是30~180 min)降水强度为一致增强趋势,且变率加大。(3)优选耿贝尔曲线拟合结合高斯牛顿法求解公式参数,作为银川市暴雨强度总(分)公式的组合计算方案,较好地编制了银川市新一代暴雨强度公式,为干旱区暴雨强度公式的编制提供了可供参考的思路。 相似文献
2.
利用吉林市1961—2017年分钟降雨量数据,分别采用年最大值法和年多个样法选样,P-Ⅲ型、指数型和Gumbel分布拟合频率分布曲线,根据误差最小原则选择最佳取样及拟合方法,采用最小二乘法求解暴雨强度公式参数,并将新旧暴雨强度公式进行比较,再利用推求出的公式参数模拟吉林市短历时芝加哥雨型。结果表明:通过年最大值法选样和P-Ⅲ型频率分布曲线拟合得到的暴雨强度公式精度最高。5~20 min历时新编暴雨强度公式计算的暴雨强度值与旧编公式相当或偏小,30~180 min历时新编暴雨强度公式计算的暴雨强度值偏大。在相同重现期下,随着降雨历时的延长,雨强变化率逐渐加大。吉林市短历时雨型的综合雨峰位置系数为0.389。30~180 min历时雨型形态均为单峰型,各历时瞬时雨强峰值接近,雨峰位置位于偏整场降雨过程的1/2处之前。累计雨量的变化特征与设计暴雨雨型形态一致。 相似文献
3.
设计暴雨研究是城市排水防涝工程建设的重要基础。基于1981—2020年雄安新区3个地面气象观测站的降雨资料,对其降雨量和暴雨日数的时间变化特征进行了分析;采用雄县分钟级降雨数据,通过年最大值法选样,为兼顾长、短历时降雨样本的拟合优度,选用P-III型曲线对降雨数据进行理论频率分析,通过MATLAB的高斯—牛顿法求解暴雨强度公式中的参数,最终得到长历时综合暴雨强度公式,根据同频率分析法对雄县1440 min的设计暴雨雨型进行推求。结果表明：雄安新区多年平均降雨量为490.4 mm,暴雨日数为4.4 d;2000—2020年暴雨日数呈增多趋势,尤以大暴雨增多明显,近10 a大暴雨发生日数占暴雨日数的比率最大,为20.8%,较21世纪初10 a大将近7倍。编制的长历时综合暴雨强度公式,可计算5—1440 min任意历时、2—100 a任意重现期的设计暴雨。雄县以5 min为步长的1440 min设计暴雨雨型为单峰型,雨峰系数为0.806,结合所编制的长历时综合暴雨强度公式,可推求任意指定重现期下1440 min的设计雨型。 相似文献
4.
利用1961—2017年北京观象台站逐分钟降雨资料,根据《城市暴雨强度公式编制和设计暴雨雨型确定技术导则》,建立了北京市1961—1990年和1991—2017年两个气候态下的暴雨强度公式和2 a重现期下历时30 min、60 min、90 min、120 min、150 min、180 min以5 min为时间段的设计暴雨雨型。结果表明：1）P-Ⅲ型分布曲线对北京市两个气候态下各历时降雨量的拟合效果最好,暴雨强度公式精度最高。2）对比1961—1990年和1991—2017年暴雨强度公式,整体而言,后者各历时重现期的暴雨强度值较低,但随着重现期的增大,两者的雨强差值也增大。3）1961—1990年和1991—2017年短历时雨型的雨峰位置系数分别为0.436和0.382,2 a重现期下前者的各历时雨峰位置比后者提前,各历时累积降雨均在初期增长较慢、雨峰前后增长较快,之后增速明显减缓。 相似文献
5.
采用宜昌市主城区国家基本站长序列的逐分钟降雨过程资料,利用PilgrimCordery法(简称"PC法")比较通过自然降雨过程和最大历时过程两种降雨场次样本选样方法推求的设计暴雨雨型,并分析结果差异。结果表明:基于自然降雨过程和最大历时过程选样,利用PC法推求的宜昌市主城区短历时设计暴雨雨型基本都为单峰型,且雨峰均出现在整场降雨过程的前1/3时段。两种选样方法推求的短历时设计暴雨雨型的雨量分配比例存在较大差异,自然降雨过程选样推求的雨型雨峰峰值占总雨量的比例相较于最大历时过程的数值偏大,更为突出。实际工程设计中,设计师应当根据最大历时过程的选样规则进行推求,结合一定重现期下各个历时的降雨量值,进而得到各历时时程分配的具体雨强;计算得到宜昌市主城区重现期2a历时60、120、180 min的雨峰时段雨强分别为1.16、0.86、0.72 mm/min。 相似文献
6.
《湖北气象》2017,(3)
根据1973—2014年葫芦岛市分钟降雨资料建立暴雨统计样本,通过对比分析确定采用年最大值法,基于P-Ⅲ型概率分布曲线拟合,推求出新一代暴雨强度公式。对比新、旧暴雨强度公式,5~30 min历时各重现期雨强以旧暴雨强度公式计算结果偏大,新、旧公式计算的45 min历时各重现期雨强基本相当,60~180 min历时各重现期雨强以新暴雨强度公式计算结果较大。在此基础上,开展葫芦岛市短历时暴雨雨型研究。统计确定雨峰位置系数为0.32,采用芝加哥雨型进行短历时暴雨雨型分析,重现期2 a、降雨历时60、90、120、150、180 min的累计降雨量在38.73~66.99 mm,均以初期累计降雨增长较慢,雨峰前后增长速度较快,之后降雨增速明显放缓。 相似文献
7.
镇江市新一代暴雨强度公式研制及雨型设计 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
用镇江市1980—2013年连续34 a的降水观测资料,通过数据审核处理建立暴雨统计样本。对镇江市近34 a的暴雨特征进行统计分析,发现其存在较为显著的阶段性变化特征,具备开展新一代暴雨强度公式研制的必要。基于此,采用年最大值法展开修订,基于皮尔逊III型分布确定概率曲线并进行参数推求,研制了镇江市新一代暴雨强度公式。在此基础上,开展镇江市短历时暴雨雨型设计研究。统计发现:短历时暴雨以单峰型分布为主,其雨峰位置大部分出现在整个暴雨过程的前半段。进而采用芝加哥法雨型进行雨型设计,确定雨峰位置系数,得到镇江市短历时暴雨的雨型设计过程,短历时暴雨的瞬时雨强最高达5.9 mm/min,过程累计降水最高达105 mm。 相似文献
8.
该文利用贵阳站1951—2013年逐日降水量及1961—2013年逐分钟降水量资料,对贵阳市暴雨变化趋势进行分析,其结果显示贵阳市暴雨平均雨量整体呈上升趋势,暴雨日数及总暴雨量总体呈现出下降趋势,21世纪以来贵阳市暴雨强度有所增强,近30 a的降水极端性及降水强度较强。以1981—2013年逐分钟降水资料为数据基础,依据《室外排水设计规范》(GB50014-2006,2014版)及《城市暴雨强度公式编制和设计暴雨雨型确定技术导则》(2014版)要求新修编的贵阳站暴雨强度公式,采用芝加哥雨型法确定贵阳市短历时暴雨雨型,雨峰综合系数为0.405,即雨峰位于整个降雨过程的终端偏前的时刻。 相似文献
9.
10.
重庆主城区暴雨强度公式推算和应用探讨 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
根据重庆市主城区沙坪坝、北碚、巴南、渝北站1981-2013年逐分钟降水资料,基于年最大值和年多个样法两种数据采样方式,采用皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布、耿贝尔分布和指数分布曲线拟合,分别编制了暴雨强度公式。结果表明:年最大值法取样推求的暴雨强度值在10 a以下重现期部分小于年多个样法,在11-30 a重现期部分两者差别小,在31-100 a重现期部分年最大值法大于年多个样法。4站均以年多个样法取样推求的暴雨强度公式误差最小。巴南和北碚选用1981-2013年、渝北与沙坪坝选用1991-2013年降水数据根据年多个样法取样采用指数分布曲线拟合推算的暴雨强度公式。通过分析各历时降水量空间分布特征,划定了新编暴雨强度公式在重庆主城区的适用范围。 相似文献
11.
在中尺度WRF-EnSRF系统中最新引入的采样误差订正局地化方法不仅考虑了回归系数偏差,而且计算量较小。该方法基于状态变量和对应观测值的相关系数的分布关系,根据离线蒙特卡洛技术制作的关于集合数和样本相关系数的查找表格确定局地化系数因子,进而订正由集合数选取有限造成的背景误差协方差被低估引起的采样误差。本文利用风暴过程的雷达观测资料做了一系列风暴尺度的资料同化理想试验,探讨了采样误差订正局地化方法在风暴尺度集合卡尔曼滤波同化中的技术特点和同化效果。结果表明:相比于经验局地化方法,采样误差订正局地化方法能够有效地改善集合同化的效果,对距离的敏感度更低,尤其在天气系统发展变化较快的阶段,新方法优势更大。并且,对不同观测变量以及在风暴发展的不同阶段使用不同的局地化方法,所得的结果都存在一定的差异,因此需要根据同化对象合理地选择局地化方法。 相似文献
12.
Various ensemble-based schemes are employed in data assimilation because they can use the ensemble to estimate the flow-dependent background error covariance. The most common way to generate the real-time ensemble is to use an ensemble forecast; however, this is very time-consuming. The historical sampling approach is an alternative way to generate the ensemble,by picking some snapshots from historical forecast series.With this approach, many ensemble-based assimilation schemes can be used in a deterministic forecast environment. Furthermore, considering the time that it saves, the method has the potential for operational application.However, the historical sampling approach carries with it a special kind of sampling error because, in a historical forecast, the way to integrate the ensemble members is different from the way to integrate the initial conditions at the analysis time(i.e., forcing and lateral boundary condition differences, and ‘warm start' or ‘cold start' differences). This study analyzes the results of an experiment with the Global Regional Assimilation Prediction System-Global Forecast System(GRAPES-GFS), to evaluate how the different integration configurations influence the historical sampling error for global models. The results show that the sampling error is dominated by diurnal cycle patterns as a result of the radiance forcing difference.Although the RMSEs of the sampling error are small, in view of the correlation coefficients of the perturbed ensemble, the sampling error for some variables on some levels(e.g., low-level temperature and humidity, stratospheric temperature and geopotential height and humidity), is non-negligible. The results suggest some caution must be applied, and advice taken, when using the historical sampling approach. 相似文献
13.
David Pierotti 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1990,10(4):373-382
A technique has been developed which can measure low-molecular-weight (C2–C5) oxygenated hydrocarbons down to concentrations of less than 10 parts per trillion (10-12) in the atmosphere. The method uses cryogenic trapping of trace gases from the air, and two-dimensional gas chromatography (2DGC) with flame ionization and photo-ionization detectors to analyze the samples. The method has been used to make extensive measurements in the field, and it is capable of measuring all of the C2–C5 carbonyl compounds in clean tropospheric air. The 2DGC analytical system also makes it possible to prepare accurate, reproducible standards of the low-molecular-weight oxygenated hydrocarbons at trace levels. 相似文献
14.
Barry J. Huebert Scott Vanbramer Kristie L. Tschudy 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1988,6(3):251-263
Slotted rods were used to collect liquid water from summer stratocumulus clouds during the Dycoms program near San Diego. The rods were mounted on a pylon atop the fuselage of NCAR's Electra. Their collection efficiency (relative to King probe liquid water content measurements) averaged 84±15% after an initial conditioning period. During collection runs in which the average LWC exceeded 0.1 g/m3, the efficiency averaged 91±12%. We have identified several factors necessary to achieve this level of performance. 相似文献
15.
Time-Expanded Sampling Approach for Ensemble Kalman Filter:Experiment Assimilation of Simulated Soundings 
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下载免费PDF全文 In the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation-prediction system, most of the computation
time is spent on the prediction runs of ensemble members. A limited or small ensemble size does reduce the
computational cost, but an excessively small ensemble size usually leads to filter divergence, especially when
there are model errors. In order to improve the efficiency of the EnKF data assimilation-prediction system
and prevent it against filter divergence, a time-expanded sampling approach for EnKF based on the WRF
(Weather Research and Forecasting) model is used to assimilate simulated sounding data. The approach
samples a series of perturbed state vectors from Nb member prediction runs not only at the analysis time
(as the conventional approach does) but also at equally separated time levels (time interval is △t) before
and after the analysis time with M times. All the above sampled state vectors are used to construct the
ensemble and compute the background covariance for the analysis, so the ensemble size is increased from
Nb to Nb+2M￡Nb=(1+2M)×Nb) without increasing the number of prediction runs (it is still Nb). This
reduces the computational cost. A series of experiments are conducted to investigate the impact of △t (the
time interval of time-expanded sampling) and M (the maximum sampling times) on the analysis. The results
show that if △t and M are properly selected, the time-expanded sampling approach achieves the similar
effect to that from the conventional approach with an ensemble size of (1+2M)×Nb, but the number of
prediction runs is greatly reduced. 相似文献
16.
回顾了国内外土壤采样装置的发展
历史,针对国内土壤采集的实际需求,确
定了液压振动式土壤采集装置的总体方
案。为了提高装置的可靠性与稳定性,进
行了液压系统管路的优化设计,设计了
具有双凸结构的采样管,进行了一般土
质与杂硬土质的采样试验。试验结果表
明,该装置既可以进行松软土质的采样,
也可以进行杂硬土质的采样。 相似文献
17.
The diffraction angular distributions are calculated for different ice crystals (e.g,solid and hollow hexagonal columns,solid plates and single hexagonal bullet) randomly oriented in space,based on the theory of Cai and Liou.Results of solid column and plate are compared with those from formulas of Wendling et al and Liou.The resull comparison shows that all three procedures discussed in this paper have good agreement.After considering the coin putation time and comparison results,it is suggested that the formula of Wendling et al.can be used to calculate the solid column diffraction,and the formula of Liou can be used to calculate the plate diffraction.The comparison also shows that the diffraction results of solid columu,hollow column and single bullet ice particles randomly oriented in space are very close. 相似文献
18.
The vertical distribution of the CH3Cl mixing ratio in the stratosphere has been measured from samples collected during two balloon flights on the 21 October 1982 and 10 September 1983. Measurements were made with two analytical techniques that were also employed for previous analyses of stratospheric samples: gas chromatography (GC) and a gas chromatograph/mass spectrometer (GC/MS) combination. The results from all balloon flights performed to date are combined to derive an average experimental profile of CH3Cl at midlatitudes. The profile shows that the CH3Cl mixing ratio decreases by about one order of magnitude between 20 and 30 km altitude. A comparison of the new observations with model profiles reveals discrepancies in the lower stratosphere that amount to a factor of about 3. Possible causes for these discrepancies are discussed. 相似文献
19.
Optimization of mooring observations in Northern Bering Sea 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The problem of the optimal sampling strategy for moored current velocity observations in the Northern Bering Sea is addressed. We analyze dynamically induced correlations in the North Bering Sea currents and conduct their sensitivity analysis to optimize positions of a limited number of moorings. Optimization of the sampling strategy is performed with respect to robustness of the reconstruction of the North Bering Sea circulation with a particular emphasis on the accurate monitoring of the mean Bering Strait transport. Computations reveal four major regions in the North Bering Sea basin that are highly correlated with the Bering Strait transport. Apart from the regions within the Bering Strait itself, they include the Anadyr Strait and a region 100 km south of the Cape of Prince of Wales. Results of the sensitivity analysis are tested in the framework of twin data experiments with the quasi-stationary and oscillatory background circulations. 相似文献
20.
2010年初采暖季,应用FA-3型气溶胶粒度分布采样器在乌鲁木齐市天山区对粒径在10μm以下的气溶胶分九级进行采样,并应用ICS3000离子色谱仪对其进行离子成分测定,结合同期AE-31型黑碳仪和Aurora-1000型积分浊度计测量所得的吸收系数和散射系数数据进行分析。研究结果表明,乌鲁木齐冬季气溶胶质量浓度0级(9.0-10μm)至2级(4.7-5.8μm)逐渐减小,2级至5级(1.1-2.1μm)逐渐增至最大值,5级到8级(亚微米级)又逐渐减小。离子总浓度的分布与气溶胶质量浓度类似,6级(0.65-1.1μm) 吸附可溶性离子能力最强,出现总离子浓度的峰值。各离子除Ca2 和Mg2 分布于粗模态外,SO42-,Na ,NH4 ,NO3-,Cl-和K 均在5-6级达到峰值。细粒子质量浓度远大于粗粒子,且吸附可溶性离子的能力也远大于粗粒子。消光系数与PM10,PM2.5,PM1.0和PM2.5-10的回归分析表明,用PM2.5质量浓度来模拟消光更有意义。采用多元线性逐步回归的方法分析不同粒径段上化学成分与气溶胶散射系数的关系,只有1.1-2.1μm和0.65-1.1μm这两个分级的硫酸盐和铵盐进入回归公式,可见这两分级的硫酸盐和铵盐对消光系数的贡献最大。 相似文献