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1.
利用1949-2006年热带气旋（TC）年鉴资料,根据2006年新制定的TC等级标准,分析了登陆我国TC的气候特征。结果表明：登陆TC中强热带风暴（STS,38．5％）最多,其余依次为台风（TY）、热带风暴（TS）、强台风（STY）和超强台风（SuperTY）。59％的STY和66．7％的SuperTY在台湾省登陆,尽管登陆广东的TC最多,但登陆的STY和SuperTY却很少。7～9月是TC登陆活跃期,而8～9月登陆TC平均强度最强。登陆TC频数具有明显的年际和年代际变化特征,其中登陆TC频数呈弱的减少趋势,而TY及以上级别TC频数则有增加趋势。在全球气候变暖背景下,登陆TC的生成源地有向北移的趋势,然而近年来南落明显。登陆TC的平均强度出现减弱趋势,但进入21世纪以来,平均强度显著增强,尤其是TC逐年强度极值表现更为明显。登陆TC的平均登陆点无明显的南北偏移,但逐年登陆点最北纬度在20世纪70年代中期以后有南落现象,以35°N以南为主。 相似文献
2.
西北太平洋风速垂直切变异常对热带气旋活动年际变化的影响 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
应用中国《台风年鉴》资料、欧洲中心40年月平均再分析资料和NOAA的逐月海温资料,研究了西北太平洋(5°—30°N,110°E—180°)风速垂直切变异常对热带气旋(TC)活动年际变化的影响。研究发现,西北太平洋所有TC、风暴以上级别的TC(TSTY,即达到热带风暴级别及以上的所有TC)和所有台风(WTY,包括台风、强台风和超强台风)年频数与西北太平洋风速垂直切变都显著负相关。西北太平洋风速垂直切变大小对生成源地在南海(5°—30°N,110°—120°E)TC和西北太平洋西部海域(5°—30°N,120°—150°E)TC的影响较小,而对西北太平洋东部海域(5°—30°N,150°E—180°)生成的TC影响最大:即西北太平洋风速垂直切变负异常年,有利于西北太平洋东部海域TC生成发展,使得负异常年较正异常年TC频数偏多和源地平均位置偏东;并且风速垂直切变的变化对TC频数和生成源地影响的显著性,随着TC强度的增加而增加。对TSTY生成环境场的进一步分析表明,西北太平洋风速垂直切变偏小年,季风槽偏强位置偏东,它的东端位于宽阔的太平洋洋面,与弱风速垂直切变区相配合,暖的海温加上低层强烈的正涡度和强烈辐合,且相应的高层有强的气流辐散区,这些环境场都有利于TSTY在主要源地尤其是西北太平洋东部海域生成,这是风速垂直切变偏小年TSTY偏多和生成源地偏东的重要原因。 相似文献
3.
应用东京台风中心(RSMC Tokyo)提供的1977—2007年影响南海的热带气旋(TC)最佳路径资料,统计分析了影响南海的不同初始强度的TC强度变化的时空分布特征,以及迅速加强(RI)和缓慢加强(SI)样本的大尺度统计特征。主要结果为:(1)热带风暴(TS)和强热带风暴(STS)以增强和稳定为主,台风(TY)减弱为主。初始强度越强,增强观测次数越少,变化率越小;减弱观测次数越多,变化率越大。(2)00时(世界时,下同)增强样本最多,增强率最大,12时减弱样本最多,减弱率最大。(3)增强状态下,南海东北部TS最多,中东部STS最多,中部TY最多。减弱样本分布在我国海南岛、越南近岸以东洋面、菲律宾近海以西洋面,TS和STS在南海中部有部分减弱样本。(4)7、9和10月RI样本较多。RI样本的平均纬度偏南,垂直切变相对较小,200 hPa纬向风东风分量稍弱,15.4 m/s风圈半径更小。SI样本的海温略高。 相似文献
4.
登陆中国不同强度热带气旋的变化特征 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
根据《热带气旋等级》国家标准(2006),将热带气旋(TC)划分为热带低压(TD)、热带风暴(TS)、强热带风暴(STS)、台风(TY)、强台风(STY)、超强台风(SSTY)6个等级,利用中国气象局整编的1949—2006年共58年的《台风年鉴》和《热带气旋年鉴》资料,分析了登陆中国大陆、海南和台湾不同强度TC变化特征。结果表明：(1) 不同强度登陆TC频数存在年际和年代际变化,在长期趋势上,TD、TS登陆频数呈现显著的线性递减趋势,STY登陆频数呈现显著增加趋势。(2) 登陆TD、TS、STS存在6—8年的周期变化,TY具有准16年的周期变化。(3) 登陆TD、TS主要生成于南海东北部海面,登陆TY、STY、SSTY多生成于巴士海峡东南部海面和菲律宾以东洋面。(4) 在年代际变化上,南海生成的登陆TD、TS频数有减少趋势,TY、STY有增多趋势。 相似文献
5.
1994年西北太平洋(包括南海)共生成热带气旋37个(包括:台风、强热带风暴和热带风暴),其中19个发展成台风。有12个热带气旋在我国登陆,比常年(9.3个)偏多。9417号台风在浙江登陆,对浙江影响很大。另外,125°E以西近海北上的热带气旋有3个较常年略偏多,明显多于去年,对浙江沿海影响较大。热带气旋路径以中低纬西,西北行,中纬北上转向型为主。登陆我国的热带气旋位置比常年偏北。 相似文献
6.
1概况9615号台风于1996年9月6日凌晨在菲律宾以东大约1000km的洋面上生成，6日08时编为热带风暴，位于15．6°N、131．6°E，中心最低气压为998hPa。该风暴形成后不断发展，于7日14时达到台风的强度，经过巴士海峡进入南海后继续发展增强，并以平均35km／h的速度向西西北方向快速移动，于9日9日10时在湛江吴川附近登陆，而后穿过湛江市区进入广西，20时在东兴地区减弱为低气压。该台风的移向稳定，移动速度快，强度强，整个过程的最大移动速度达40km／h。据台风登陆点附近的吴川、湛江、遂溪三个气象台观测资料显示：9615号台风在登陆湛江… 相似文献
7.
西北太平洋热带气旋的闪电活动、雷达反射率和冰散射信号特征分析 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
利用热带测雨卫星(TRMM)携带的测雨雷达(PR)、闪电成像仪(LIS)和微波辐射计(TMI)的同步探测资料,选取1998-2008年登陆中国的46个热带气旋,分析了其不同强度阶段的闪电活动、雷达反射率和冰散射信号的分布特征,以及闪电的发生与雷达反射率和冰散射信号之间的关系.结果发现:强度较弱的热带气旋平均闪电次数相对较高;当强度达到强热带风暴阶段后,强度越强,闪电数量反而越少.热带气旋强度不同,闪电的空间分布也有差别,热带风暴、强台风和超强台风阶段眼壁区闪电密度最大,而其他阶段则在外雨带区密度最大.热带气旋大部分区域被层云和弱对流降水控制,0℃层以上雷达反射率迅速减小,冰散射信号也普遍较弱.虽然热带气旋的眼壁区对流活动最强.但相比于外面带却较不易发生闪电.在同等大小的雷达反射率下,闪电更易发生在台风和强热带风暴阶段,超强台风阶段发生闪电阈值最高.由于闪电的发生与软雹、冰晶和过冷水等微物理参量以及上升气流速度紧密相关,因此闪电资料可以提供关于热带气旋不同区域的微物理过程和动力过程信息. 相似文献
8.
1957-2004年影响我国的强热带气旋频数和强度变化 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
以中国气象局西北太平洋热带气旋资料为基础,分析1957-2004年影响我国并达到台风强度以上的三类热带气旋,即生成热带气旋、影响热带气旋和登陆热带气旋的频数和强度的变化。结果表明：强热带气旋频数在1957-2004年间呈显著减少趋势,强度越强,其减少趋势越明显。近50 a台风以上强度的强热带气旋频次占总频次的比例没有明显的增加或减少趋势,强台风和超强台风比例呈减少趋势。1957-2004年热带气旋的最大强度呈线性减弱趋势,生成热带气旋和影响热带气旋的平均强度亦呈减弱趋势,登陆台风的平均强度也呈减弱趋势。 相似文献
9.
利用1979—2018年美国联合台风警报中心发布的热带气旋数据和ERA-Interim提供的1°×1°再分析资料分析了北印度洋秋季超级气旋风暴的活动特征。结果表明:1998年以后,北印度洋秋季生成的超级气旋风暴数目显著增多;1999—2018年北印度洋平均最大潜在强度指数高于1979—1998年;与1979—1998年相比,1999—2018年更高的平均海面温度和海洋热含量为超级气旋风暴的生成和发展提供了有利的条件,更弱的垂直风切变、更强的水汽通量和低层气旋性涡度输送促进了热带风暴强度的持续增长。 相似文献
10.
西北太平洋热带气旋尺度的气候特征研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
使用美国联合台风警报中心（Joint Typhoon Warning Center,简称JTWC）整编的2001-2006年的热带气旋（简称TC）资料,分析了TC尺度季节变化特征、区域分布情况,并讨论了TC尺度和强度的关系,初步探讨了西北太平洋热带气旋尺度的气候特征。研究结果表明：TC尺度有明显的季节变化特征,平均尺度在4月份最大,达到230．4km,2月份最小,为69．5km;TC尺度有明显的区域分布不均匀性,TC尺度出现最大值的区域位于28．6～29．5°N,131．1～133．0°E的海面上,而在123°E以东和12°N以南地区,TC尺度往往都在200km以下;对于不同强度的TC,其尺度与强度变幅有明显差异,热带风暴（TS）的24h尺度变幅最大,而台风（TY）的24h强度变幅最大;TC尺度和强度的相关性在不同路径下是有差异的,西北行、西行、北上型的TC尺度与强度呈显著的正相关,两者的相关系数达到了0．93以上,东北行和回旋型的TC尺度和强度的相关系数接近0．6,转向型TC的相关系数在0．85左右;此外,TC尺度和强度的相关性在其生命史的不同阶段也存在显著差异,在发展期,尺度和强度的相关性最好,其相关系数达到0．92,其他阶段相关性则减弱． 相似文献
11.
Spatial and Temporal Variations of Tropical Cyclones at Different Intensity Scales over the Western North Pacific from 1945 to 2005 
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下载免费PDF全文 The tropical cyclone （TC） track data provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center （JTWC） of the U.S. Navy over the western North Pacific （including the South China Sea） from 1945 to 2005 are employed to analyze the temporal and spatial variations of TCs of different intensity scales. Most of the TCs occurred between 15° and 25°N, from the northern part of the South China Sea to the eastern part of the Bashi Channel until near 140°E. Most of the severe and super typhoons occurred over waters from the eastern part of the Bashi Channel to about 140°E. The TCs in a weakening or steady state take up a weak majority in the area west of 123°E and north of 20°N; those in an intensifying or steady state are mostly found in the area east of 123°E and south of 20°N. For severe tropical storms, typhoons, severe typhoons, and super typhoons, their average decaying rates are all greater than the respective average growing rates; for tropical storms, however, the average decaying rate is smaller than the average growing rate. Generally speaking, the stronger the TC, the faster the intensification （weakening） is. The percentage of weak TCs is higher in June to August while that of strong TCs is higher in September to November. There are annual, interannual, and interdecadal variations in the observed number （every 6 h） and frequency of TCs at different intensity scales. As far as the long-term trend is concerned, the frequency and observed number of tropical storms have a significant linear increase, but the averaged intensity and number of TCs of other intensity categories do not exhibit such a significant linear trend. In E1 Nifio years, the number and percentage of super typhoons are significantly higher, while the total number of tropical storms, severe tropical storms, typhoons, and severe typhoons is significantly lower, and the mean intensity of TCs is prominently stronger; in La Nifia years, however, the opposite comes true. 相似文献
12.
Predicting the intensity of tropical cyclones(TCs)is challenging in operational weather prediction systems,partly due to the difficulty in defining the initial vortex.In an attempt to solve this problem,this study investigated the effect of initial vortex intensity correction on the prediction of the intensity of TCs by the operational numerical prediction system GRAPES_TYM(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System_Typhoon Model)of the National Meteorological Center of the China Meteorological Administration.The statistical results based on experiments using data for major TCs in 2018 show that initial vortex intensity correction can reduce the errors in mean intensity for up to 120-h integration,with a noticeable decrease in the negative bias of intensity and a slight increase in the mean track error.The correction leads to an increase in the correlation coefficient of Vmax(maximum wind speed at 10-m height)for the severe typhoon and super typhoon stages.Analyses of the errors in intensity at different stages of intensity(including tropical storms,severe tropical storms,typhoons,severe typhoons,and super typhoons)show that vortex intensity correction has a remarkable positive influence on the prediction of super typhoons from 0 to 120h.Analyses of the errors in intensity for TCs with different initial intensities indicate that initial vortex correction can significantly improve the prediction of intensity from 24 to 96 h for weak TCs(including tropical storms and severe tropical storms at the initial time)and up to 24 h for strong TCs(including severe typhoons and super typhoons at the initial time).The effect of the initial vortex intensity correction is more important for developing TCs than for weakening TCs. 相似文献
13.
我国近海热带气旋强度突变的气候特征分析 总被引：10，自引：4，他引：10
利用２．５×２．５格距的风场及气压资料,计算分析９０１２号热带气旋登陆后维持６５小时不消的各标准时次的角动量收支。得到的结果是：９０１２号热带气旋登陆后,进入一个相对稳定的鞍型场的中心,低层有西南风急流将大量潮湿空气卷入热带气旋,为其提供充足的潜热能,北侧弱冷空气的侵入,为其提供了斜压能量;而对流层上部气旋４°－８°半径上的地转角动量的涡旋输送及β项产生的气旋角动量的输入,则是气旋中心气压和最大风速维持的直接因素。 相似文献
14.
Characteristics of intensity change in tropical cyclones affecting the South China Sea from 1977 to 2007 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The best track data of tropical cyclones (TCs) provided by Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo for the South China Sea (SCS) from 1977 to 2007 are employed to study the spatiotemporal variations (for a period of 12 hours) and the rapid (slow) intensification (RI/SI) of TCs with different intensity. The main results are as follows. (1) Over this period, the tropical storms (TSs) and severe tropical storms (STSs) mostly intensify or are steady while the typhoons (TYs) mostly weaken. The stronger a TC is initially, the more observation of its intensification and the less its variability will be; the more observation of its weakening is, the larger its variability will be. (2) The TC intensifies the fastest at 0000 UTC while weakening the fastest at 1200 UTC. (3) In the intensifying state, TSs, STSs, and TYs are mainly active in the northeastern, central-eastern, and central SCS respectively. The weakening cases mainly distribute over waters east off Hainan Island and Vietnam and west off the Philippines. Some cases of TSs and STSs weaken over the central SCS. (4) The RI cases form farther south in contrast to the SI cases. The RI cases are observed in regions where there are weaker vertical shear and easterly components at 200 hPa. The RI cases also have stronger mid-and lower-level warm-core structure and smaller radii of 15.4 m/s winds. The SI cases have slightly higher SST. 相似文献
15.
Based on high-resolution reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, several samples of tropical cyclones (TCs), including tropical storms, severe tropical storms, and typhoons, in the South China Sea (SCS), were selected for composite analysis. The structures of these three types of vortices and their differences with ‘bogus’ vortices were investigated. Results showed that TCs in the SCS have characteristics that are distinctly different from vortices formed by the bogussing scheme used at Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, such as no anticyclone in higher layers, strong convergence concentrated at the bottom of the troposphere, and strong divergence happening in higher layers instead of at 400 hPa. These differences provide clues for constructing a more realistic structure for TCs in the SCS. It was also found that the three types of vortices have some structural features in common. The area with high wind speed is fan-shaped in the north around the TC center, the maximum vorticity appears at 925 hPa, the strongest convergence appears at 1000 hPa, and strong divergence is located from 150 to 100 hPa. On the contrary, significant differences between them were revealed. The warm cores in tropical storms, severe tropical storms, and typhoons are located at 600–400 hPa, 400−300 hPa, and 400−250 hPa, respectively. Among the three types of TCs, the bogus vortex of tropical storms has the largest errors in structure and suffers the largest errors in track forecasts. However, typhoons have the largest errors in the forecast of intensity. This may be related to the great impacts of ocean on TC intensity. 相似文献
16.
2013年欧洲中心台风集合预报的检验 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
广州中心气象台利用中国气象局下发的欧洲中心台风集合预报数据,制作了台风集合预报产品,供业务参考应用。利用欧洲中心台风集合预报数据,对2013年1307—1331号热带气旋的集合预报路径和强度进行检验,通过对比集合平均、模式高分辨率确定性预报和预报员主观预报,发现路径集合平均在24~120 h预报误差最小;在有限的预报样本数中,从热带风暴到台风级别的热带气旋,各预报时效路径集合平均的误差随强度增强而减小;强引导气流背景下的热带气旋预报误差小于弱引导气流的误差。对比强度集合平均和模式高分辨率确定性预报,发现各时效集合平均的误差比确定性预报大,随着预报时效的延长误差没有明显增大或减小的趋势,而且强度集合平均预报,在中心最低气压、中心最大风速、热带气旋等级都表现出明显的系统性偏弱特征;对不同级别的热带气旋强度预报,集合平均的误差随强度增强而增大,即强度集合预报对强度较弱的热带气旋有更高的准确率;对比受强、弱引导气流影响的两类热带气旋,集合平均对受弱引导气流影响的一类预报误差更小。 相似文献
17.
55-year (1949 - 2003) data sets are used to study the statistical characteristics in intensity change of the tropical cyclones (TC) over the western North Pacific. According to the mathematical meaning of average value and standard deviation, the abruptly intensifying, gradually intensifying, stable intensity, gradually weakening and abruptly weakening of TC intensity are defined and the statistical characteristics, such as inter-decadal variation, inter-annual variation, inter-monthly variation, and regional distribution, etc. are analyzed. Main results are as follows: (1) From 1949 to 2003, there were 1886 TCs, averaging at 34.29 TCs per year. After 1995, the number of TCs dropped dramatically with less than 30 per year. 3.56% of the total were abruptly intensifying samples, and 3.31% were weakening samples. (2) For the annual mean, all but the stable group tend to decrease with the shift of decades as far as the overall change of the 6-h isallobaric process is concerned. (3) The abruptly intensifying TC seldom occurs over mid- and high-latitude area (north of 30°N) and low-latitude area and sometimes occurs around the islands and continent. Basically there is no gradually intensifying of TC over mid- and high- latitude area (north of 30°N and west of 125°E), in offshore Chinese waters. The gradually weakening and abruptly weakening TCs usually occur offshore China, west of 125 °E, but seldom over low-latitude area (0 - 5°N). 相似文献
18.
近58年来登陆中国热带气旋气候变化特征 总被引：12，自引：1，他引：11
利用1949-2006年<台风年鉴>和<热带气旋年鉴>资料,主要分析了1949-2006年登陆中国热带气旋的频数、登陆位置、登陆季节延续期和登陆强度等要素及其概率分布的年际和年代际变化特征.结果表明:近58年来,登陆中国热带气旋年频数有减少趋势,但登陆时达台风强度的年频数变化不明显;按登陆地点分区统计发现,登陆华南地区的热带低压及(强)热带风暴年频数以减少为主,而登陆东部地区的热带气旋年频数变化不明显.登陆点历年最北位置(最南位置)有南移(弱的北移)趋势,导致登陆点历年南北最大纬度差逐渐减小,这表明热带气旋登陆区域更为集中,在23°-35°N增多,而在35°N以北和23°N以南以减少为主.登陆中国热带气旋季节延续期缩短了近1个月.热带气旋年平均登陆强度及其概率分布偏度有增加趋势,表明登陆的强台风有增加;登陆中国华南和东部地区的台风强度都有增强趋势,前者比后者趋势更明显.另外,热带气旋年最大登陆强度差长期呈现减小的趋势. 相似文献
19.
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GLOBAL WARMING AND THE VARIATION IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
The relationship between global warming and the variation in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis
frequency is analyzed using the data of the Tropical Cyclone Year Book by the China Meteorological
Administration and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data from 1949
to 2007. The observational results indicate that the average sea surface temperature (SST) in the
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) region (10°N – 20°N, 100°E – 140°E) increases by 0.6°C against
the background of global warming, while the frequency of tropical cyclone geneses in this region decreases
significantly. Generally, the rise of SSTs is favorable for the genesis of tropical cyclones, but it is now
shown to be contrary to the normal effect. Most of the tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific (WNP)
are generated in the ITCZ. This is quite different from the case in the Atlantic basin in which the tropical
cyclones are mostly generated from the easterly wave. Our research results demonstrate that the ITCZ has a
weakening trend in strength, and it has moved much more equatorward in the past 40 years; both are
disadvantageous to the formation of tropical cyclones. Furthermore, our study also found that the ridge of
the subtropical high tends to shift slightly equatorward, which is another adverse mechanism for the
formation of tropical cyclones. 相似文献
20.
Summary An intriguing picture is emerging of coupled track and intensity links in tropical cyclones. Since recurvature represents a dramatic track shift, recurving tropical storms are isolated in this study and their time of maximum lifetime intensity is compared to their time of recurvature. Thirty-one percent of all western North Pacific tropical storms and 28% of all such storms in North Atlantic recurve. Seventeen years of track and intensity data for recurving tropical cyclones in these basins are examined here.The overwhelming majority (80%) of western North Pacific tropical storms (including typhoons) reach their lifetime maximum intensity prior to recurvature. More than 45% of all recurving storms have coincident recurvature and lifetime maximum intensity, with weaker tropical storms clearly more likely to reach peak intensity at recurvature than strong systems.Inspection of tropical storm intensity and track data for North Atlantic systems reveals few clear patterns. The most robust observation to be made here is that the majority of these systems reach their peak intensity prior to recurvature. Exclusion of landfalling extratropically transforming tropical cyclones from this sample greatly reduces the number of systems, making the significance of any results questionable.With 2 Figures 相似文献