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1.
通过数值试验验证卫星高度计波高数据同化对西北太平洋3 d海浪预报的改进效果。驱动海浪模式的强迫场采用国家海洋环境预报中心基于MM5模式预报的风场,波高数据同化使用的观测数据是Jason-1卫星高度计有效波高。用最优插值数据同化方法获得海浪有效波高的最优估计并重构相应的海浪方向谱,以此为初始场进行为期3 d的数值预报试验。与没有同化的预报进行了比较和分析,结果表明卫星高度计海浪数据同化对0~72 h预报有不同程度的明显改善,改进程度随预报时效的增加而减少。 相似文献
2.
背景误差相关结构的确定是影响海浪同化效果的关键因素之一。集合Kalman滤波是一种较为成熟的同化方法,其可以对背景误差进行实时更新和动态估计,现已广泛应用于海洋和大气领域的研究。本文基于MASNUM-WAM海浪模式,分别采用静态样本集合Kalman滤波和EAKF方法,针对2014年全球海域开展海浪数据同化实验,同化资料为Jason-2卫星高度计数据,利用Saral卫星高度计资料对同化实验结果进行检验。结果表明,两组同化方案均有效提高了海浪模式的模拟水平,EAKF方案在风场变化较大的西风带区域表现显著优于静态样本集合Kalman滤波方案,但总体上两者相差不大。综合考虑计算成本和同化效果,静态样本集合Kalman滤波方案更适用于海浪业务化预报。 相似文献
3.
MASNUM-WAM海浪模式集合Kalman滤波同化研究-I.风场扰动对海浪模拟影响 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
模式集合样本的代表性和观测信息的可靠性是制约数据同化效果的重要因素,而前者对海浪模式同化的影响尤为显著。由于海浪模式对初始场的敏感性较弱,来自大气的风输入源函数是海浪的重要能量输入,如何合理地对风输入进行扰动,构造海浪的集合模式运行,是实现和改进海浪模式集合Kalman滤波同化的关键问题。为了实现海浪模式集合运行,本文提出了风场的三种集合扰动方案,分别为：纯随机数、随机场和时间滞后的风场扰动方法。本研究利用2014年1月ECMWF全球风场,基于这三种风场扰动方法开展了集合海浪模式的集合运行实验,并统计分析了海浪特征要素（有效波高）和二维波数谱对风场扰动的响应。结果表明,随机场集合扰动方案所构造的风场集合效果最佳,所得海浪模拟结果的集合样本发散度适中,能够较为合理地反映背景误差的统计特征,可用于进一步的集合Kalman滤波海浪数据同化实验。 相似文献
4.
海面有效波高(H1/3)是表征海浪的重要参数,随着卫星遥感技术的发展,雷达高度计已成为获取海面有效波高的重要手段,但也只能对卫星星下点轨迹处进行有效观测,远无法满足大范围应用的需求.本研究结合2013年10月HY-2雷达高度计观测的海面有效波高和微波散射计观测的海面风场资料,分别对高、低风速下风浪数据进行拟合,建立了适用于0~40 m/s风速范围内的南海海域风浪关系模型,经模型比对和结果验证,结果表明,基于HY-2卫星数据分析建立的南海海域风浪关系模型是可信的,特别是低风速的风浪模型与实测数据建立的风浪模型具有很好的一致性;根据建立的风浪关系模型,从卫星散射计大面观测的海面风场出发,能推算出风浪条件下海面有效波高的大面信息,数据覆盖远高于卫星高度计的星下点观测,能为分析和预报海浪、风暴潮灾害提供大范围的海面有效波高信息. 相似文献
5.
The skill of modern wave models is such that the quality of their forecasts is, to a large degree, determined by errors in the forcing wind field. This work explores the extent to which large-scale systematic biases in modelled waves from a third generation wave model can be attributed to the forcing winds. Three different sets of winds with known global bias characteristics are used to force the WAVEWATCH III model. These winds are based on the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS model output, with different statistical corrections applied. Wave forecasts are verified using satellite altimeter data. It is found that a negative bias in modelled Significant Wave Height (Hs) has its origins primarily in the forcing, however, the reduction of systematic wind biases does not result in universal improvement in modelled Hs. A positive bias is present in the Southern Hemisphere due primarily to an overestimation of high Hs values in the Southern Ocean storm tracks. A positive bias is also present in the east Pacific and East Indian Ocean. This is due both to the over-prediction of waves in the Southern Ocean and lack of swell attenuation in the wave model source terms used. Smaller scale features are apparent, such as a positive bias off the Cape of Good Hope, and a negative bias off Cape Horn. In some situations, internal wave model error has been compensated for by error in the forcing winds. 相似文献
6.
This paper evaluates the impact of using different wind field products on the performance of the third generation wave model SWAN in the Black Sea and its capability for predicting both normal and extreme wave conditions during 1996. Wind data were obtained from NCEP CFSR, NASA MERRA, JRA-25, ECMWF Operational, ECMWF ERA40, and ECMWF ERA-Interim. Wave data were obtained in 1996 at three locations in the Black Sea within the NATO TU-WAVES project. The quality of wind fields was assessed by comparing them with satellite data. These wind data were used as forcing fields for the generation of wind waves. Time series of predicted significant wave height (Hmo), mean wave period (Tm02), and mean wave direction (DIR) were compared with observations at three offshore buoys in the Black Sea and its performance was quantified in terms of statistical parameters. In addition, wave model performance in terms of significant wave height was also assessed by comparing them against satellite data.The main scope of this work is the impact of the different available wind field products on the wave hindcast performance. In addition, the sensitivity of wave model forecasts due to variations in spatial and temporal resolutions of the wind field products was investigated. Finally, the impact of using various wind field products on predicting extreme wave events was analyzed by focussing on storm peaks and on an individual storm event in October 1996. The numerical results revealed that the CFSR winds are more suitable in comparison with the others for modelling both normal and extreme events in the Black Sea. The results also show that wave model output is critically sensitive to the choice of the wind field product, such that the quality of the wind fields is reflected in the quality of the wave predictions. A finer wind spatial resolution leads to an improvement of the wave model predictions, while a finer temporal resolution in the wind fields generally does not significantly improve agreement between observed and simulated wave data. 相似文献
7.
基于MCT耦合器,利用中尺度大气模型WRF、海洋模型FVCOM和第三代海浪模型SWAN,实现大气、海洋和海浪的三者实时耦合计算,同时采用卫星微波辐射资料AMSU-A,通过WRF大气模式的资料同化模块WRFDA,实现对风场模拟的连续同化,从而建立起大气-海洋-海浪耦合与卫星数据同化的W-F-S-A耦合同化模式。将该模型应用于2014年台风“威马逊”的数值模拟,并与其他模型进行比较。结果表明,W-F-S-A耦合同化模式对于台风路径和风速的模拟结果优于单独耦合和单独同化结果,并且可以较好地模拟上层海洋对台风的响应特征。 相似文献
8.
1988-2002年黄海和渤海风浪后报 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
本文对黄海和渤海风浪开展长期后报实验,时间范围覆盖1988至2002年,并分析相应的区域波候特征。首先,模式输出的月平均有效波高和卫星数据比对一致。其次,我们讨论了气候态月平均有效波高和平均波周期的时空分布特征。有效波高和平均波周期的气候态空间分布都呈现出西北-东南、或由近岸向深水区增加的趋势,这种空间的分布特征和局地的风强迫和水深密切相关。同时,海浪参数的季节变化也较显著。进一步,我们统计分析了风场和有效波高的极值,给出并揭示了黄海和渤海多年一遇有效波高的空间结构,并讨论了有效波高极值和风强迫极值之间的联系。 相似文献
9.
The paper discusses an artificial neural network (ANN) approach to project information on wind speed and waves collected by the TOPEX satellite at deeper locations to a specified coastal site. The observations of significant wave heights, average wave period and wind speed at a number of locations over a satellite track parallel to a coastline are used to estimate corresponding values of these three parameters at the coastal site of interest. A combined network involving an input and output of all the three parameters, viz., wave height, period and wind speed instead of separate networks for each one of these variables was found to be necessary in order to train the network with sufficient flexibility. It was also found that network training based on statistical homogeneity of data sets is essential to obtain accurate results. The problem of modeling wind speeds that are always associated with very high variations in their magnitudes was tackled in this study by imparting training in an innovated manner. 相似文献
10.
Hui Feng Doug Vandemark Yves Quilfen Bertrand Chapron Brian Beckley 《Ocean Engineering》2006,33(11-12):1431-1461
The study presents assessment of an operational wave model (Wavewatch III), focusing upon the model sensitivity to wind-forcing products. Four wind fields are used to drive the model, including the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and three other products that assimilate various satellite wind measurements having high spatial resolution, including the QuikSCAT scatterometer. Three wave field statistics: significant wave height, mean zero-crossing wave period, and mean square slope are compared with collocated TOPEX altimeter derivatives to gauge the relative skill of differing wind-forced model runs, as well as to demonstrate an extended use of the altimeter beyond simply supplying wave height for wave model validation and assimilation. Results suggest that model output is critically sensitive to choice of the wind field product. Higher spatial resolution in the wind fields does lead to improved agreement for the higher-order wave statistics. 相似文献
11.
《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2003,50(7):917-926
Time-longitude diagrams of monthly anomalies of TOPEX/Poseidon sea surface height (SSH), Levitus steric height, COADS wind stress curl, as well as meridional surface wind averaged over the northern South China Sea (SCS) from 18° to 22°N, exhibit a coherent westward phase propagation, with a westward propagation speed of about 5 cm s−1. The consistency between oceanic and atmospheric variables indicates that there is a forced Rossby wave in the northern SCS. The horizontal patterns of monthly SSH anomalies from observations and model sensitivity experiments show that the forced Rossby wave, originating to the northwest off Luzon Island, actually propagates west-northwestward towards the Guangdong coast because of zonal migration of the meridional surface wind. The winter Luzon Cold Eddy (LCE), which has been found from field observations, can be identified as a forced Rossby wave with a negative SSH anomaly in winter. It corresponds to strong upwelling and a negative temperature anomaly. Sensitivity experiments show that the wind forcing controls the generation of the LCE, while the Kuroshio is of minor importance. 相似文献
12.
针对有效波高资料提出一种海浪谱分解与重构的资料同化方案:利用历史时段内的有效波高观测资料和模式计算波高场,采用最优插值方法得到分析波高场;在WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ模式的波浪能量密度谱和有效波高分析值之间引入一个变异系数矩阵,描述模式的误差,以此为状态向量构建卡尔曼滤波系统,对分解过的海浪谱进行修正和重构,得到同化后的海浪谱初始场。利用美国阿拉斯加湾北部海域的7个浮标站进行同化和72 h预报试验,对连续1个月的预报结果进行统计表明:采用该同化方案后24 h预报结果的有效波高均方根误差比未同化的结果降低了0.13 m;同化方案对预报效果的影响可持续36 h左右,随着预报时效延长,同化的效果减弱。 相似文献
13.
基于第3代海浪模式WW3(WAVEWATCH-III),以具有高精度和较高分辨率的CCMP(Cross-Calibrated, Multi-Platform)风场为驱动场,对2011年12月发生在孟加拉湾的热带气旋“Thane”所致的大浪进行数值模拟。结果表明:(1)以CCMP风场驱动WW3海浪模式,可以较好地模拟热带气旋“Thane”在孟加拉湾造成的大浪,模拟的海浪数据具有较高精度。当有效波高(SWH)在2 m以内和大于5 m时,模拟值略小于观测值;当SWH在2~5 m之间时,模拟值略大于观测值。(2)热带气旋“Thane”所形成的大风和大浪的分布特征具有一定差异:大风区在气旋四周分布较为均匀;在大洋中部时,大浪区主要分布于右半圆,在近海时,大浪区主要分布于气旋行进方向的前方。(3)热带气旋“Thane”的风向和波向整体上保持了较好的一致性,仅在第2象限有一定的差异,该区域的风向主要为西北向,而波向则主要为偏北向。 相似文献
14.
根据24年CCMP风场资料和江苏沿海4个方向(N、NE、E和SE)百年一遇风速,构建西北太平洋、东中国海和江苏沿海上述4个方向的百年一遇风场。首次建立一个基于第三代海浪模型SWAN的自西北太平洋、东中国海至江苏沿海的三重嵌套数值模型,以AVISO卫星观测数据和江苏沿海定点实测数据进行验证。以三个计算域4个方向百年一遇风场为驱动风场,驱动该多重嵌套模型,高精度数值模拟江苏沿海4个方向百年一遇有效波高分布并进行分析。结果表明,江苏沿海辐射沙洲地形对有效波高分布影响显著;E向百年一遇风场作用下海域有效波高最大,NE向次之,N向和SE较小。 相似文献
15.
太湖风浪场的计算与比较 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
首先探讨了浅水风浪数值模型—SWAN模型应用于模拟内陆湖泊风浪生成和传播变形时的特点。该模型存在不能有效地模拟近固壁边界处风浪场的缺点,以能正确地模拟湖区的风浪场和节约计算时间为原则,确定了计算范围。对太湖进行了风场和风浪场的现场观测。分别利用规范公式和SWAN模型两种方法、根据观测和预报的风场计算了湖区的有效波高,并将计算结果和现场观测值进行了详细比较。结果表明基于观测的风场,利用两种方法所计算的太湖风浪场的精度基本相当;在根据观测的风场、利用SWAN模型计算内陆湖泊的风浪场时,需要精心选择恰当的风场;在根据预报的风场预报湖区风浪场时,SWAN模型的精度要高于规范公式的精度。 相似文献
16.
基于CCMP(Cross Calibrated Multi-platform)卫星遥感海面风场数据,通过将WAVEWATCH和SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore)模型嵌套的方法,数值模拟了珠江口附近海域的风浪场。将总计10个月的数值模拟的有效波高、波周期和波向分别与相应的观测值进行了定量比较。结果说明,有效波高的平均绝对误差为15.4cm,分散系数SI为0.240,相关系数为0.925;波周期的平均绝对误差为1.9s,分散系数SI为0.433,相关系数为0.636;波向的平均绝对误差为23.9°。计算的波高和波向与观测结果的变化趋势相吻合。由于第三代海浪模式本身的缺陷,导致所计算的波周期偏小。总体说来,本文所采用的数值模式能较好地模拟珠江口附近海域的风浪场。另外,还设计了6个算例以探讨采用不同的计算方法和风场对计算结果精度的影响。结果表明使用本文的数值方法和高精度的CCMP风场确实可以提高计算结果的精度。 相似文献
17.
A characterization of extreme wave parameters during extratropical cyclones in the Northern hemisphere is made from WAM wave model hindcasts. In February 2007 two extratropical storms were observed in the North Atlantic and the wave fields associated with them are modeled in this paper. Wave buoy and satellite altimetry data were used to validate the WAM hindcast results. The distribution of the Benjamin–Feir index (BFI), kurtosis and the ratio of maximum wave height to significant wave height (abnormality index) around the eye of the two extratropical cyclones is studied. It is found that under these conditions the BFI and kurtosis are significantly larger mainly in the fourth quadrant and also when the wind direction is aligned with the wave propagation direction. In these regions the probability of occurrence of abnormal waves is higher. 相似文献
18.
ASAR波模式数据反演参数误差与海浪条纹清晰度的相关性分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
欧洲环境卫星-高级合成孔径雷达(EnvironmentalSatellite-AdvancedSyntheticAperture Radar,Envisat-ASAR)波模式数据提供了全球风、浪要素信息,在海浪模式预报与同化方面有重要作用。该数据合成孔径雷达(SyntheticApertureRadar,SAR)图像普遍存在海浪条纹清晰度不同的现象,但是否影响数据精度尚无定论。本文通过比较2010年NODC (the National Oceanographic Date Center)浮标观测数据和波模式数据,发现经过官方修正后的海浪参数反而具有更大误差。进而通过对比不同条纹清晰度的SAR图像反演参数误差,揭示了ASAR产品海浪参数与浮标测量值之间的误差与海浪条纹清晰度的关系。结果表明:海浪条纹清晰的SAR图像的主波波长和主波周期的反演误差更小,而条纹不清晰SAR图像的有效波高和风速的反演误差更小。通过分析海浪参数对海浪条纹清晰度的敏感性,证实了有效波高和方位向截断波长对SAR图像条纹清晰度的响应最好,波陡次之,与卫星飞行方位角和入射角无关。因此,在反演和修正SAR波模式数据时,考虑图像的条纹清晰度,将会有效提高反演数据的精度。该研究可为高分三号等卫星的波模式数据波浪要素反演精度的提升提供有价值的参考。 相似文献
19.
Tai-Wen Hsu Jian-Ming Liau Jaw-Guei Lin Jinhai Zheng Shan-Hwei Ou 《Ocean Engineering》2011,38(2-3):456-467
We investigate the effect of data assimilation in the Wind Wave Model (WWM, Hsu et al., 2005) for wind wave simulations of typhoon events using an Optimal Interpolation (OI) method in the coastal waters of Taiwan. The main point of the present study is that the assimilation is conducted for typhoon events with short-time periods around an island. Five real typhoon events were used for numerical assimilation experiments with different combinations of the key parameters: the correlation length, the ratio of the errors between the observation and the prediction, and the number of measuring stations. The retrieved wind velocity is obtained using the wave energy growth curve computed from the WWM. The wave energy dissipation function suggested by Makin and Kudryavtsev (1999) was adopted in the data assimilation. This study shows that assimilation can improve the initial performance of the wave model, but it becomes insignificant after about 12 h. In summary, the OI approach is shown to be a reliable assimilation scheme for the WWM applied to typhoon events in the coastal waters of Taiwan Island. 相似文献
20.
结合经验的台风风场模型和NCEP再分析资料构造了南海台风风场,并以此作为一个第三代海浪模式的输入模拟了1999年约克(York)台风经过南海时所产生的台风浪场.模拟结果显示,尽管文中构造的南海台风风场比较接近真实的风场,但模拟出的台风浪场相对于TOPEX/Poseidon高度计的观测波高仍有一定差异,因此进而采用了一种简单的最优插值同化方法,开展了波高资料的初步同化试验.试验结果显示,资料同化显著地改进了海浪模式的(后)预报精度,而这种改进在涌浪区更加显著,同化有效维持时间大约是43h. 相似文献