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当前,对渔业资源评估模型的诊断与选择,主要依赖于模型对观察数据的拟合度,很少评价模型的预测能力、并将其作为评价渔业资源评估与管理质量的依据。为此,本文利用后向预报方法评价了印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus albacores)资源评估模型的预测能力,并在此基础上分析了印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼的资源评估与管理质量。研究表明,在利用贝叶斯剩余产量模型对印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼进行资源评估时,存在如下问题:(1)拟合较好的模型其预测能力较差;(2)利用不同时段数据拟合模型时,采用DIC(Deviance Information Criterion)选择的最佳模型缺少稳定性;(3)不同模型估计的TAC (Total Allowable Catch)存在较大差异。据此可以判断,利用贝叶斯剩余产量模型对印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼进行资源评估与管理效果较差。本研究结果表明:(1)利用后向预报方法可评价模型的预测能力、DIC选择模型的稳定性,从而能在一定程度上判断模型模拟的种群演化动态是否正确、资源评估结果是否存在问题;(2)利用后向预报方法可揭示评估结果的不确定性及其可能引起的渔业管理风险,从而有利于避免渔业管理风险、实现渔业管理目标。 相似文献
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适用于短生命周期种类资源评估模型的研究现状与展望 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《海洋湖沼通报》2015,(3)
近几十年来随着传统鱼类资源衰退,短生命周期种类的资源量和捕捞产量出现了增长,并已成为世界海洋捕捞业的重要捕捞对象,为使渔业资源可持续利用,必须制定合理的渔业管理计划,实现对渔业资源的科学管理。对渔业资源进行科学的评估是制定渔业管理计划的基础,渔业资源评估模型则是进行渔业资源评估的重要工具,对短生命周期种类资源进行科学评估和管理是一个极为重要的课题。但是短生命周期种类具有生命周期短、生长快、资源丰富以及产卵种群多的特点,资源量极易受海洋环境影响的独特的生活史特征,使得世界各国对短生命周期种类资源评估和管理的研究处在发展初期。本文首先介绍了短生命周期种类的生物学特点,接着简要介绍了传统资源评估模型的分类,最后详细阐述了目前应用于短生命周期种类的资源评估模型与方法,同时,本文对渔业资源评估模型中存在的问题进行了探讨,并对其未来的发展进行了展望。 相似文献
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2005年9月1日，NOAA向美国国会发布了2004年美国渔业情报的年度报告。与先前的资源评估相比，这份报告体现了以下几点变化：一种渔业资源己被完全恢复：6种资源己停止过度捕捞；3种资源不再有过度捕捞的危险；5种资源正在被过度抽捞：还有3种资源已经被过度抽捞：还有3种资源已经被过度捕捞。 相似文献
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内蒙古赤峰市达里湖渔业产量的灰色预测与分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
由于病害和产卵条件恶化等原因,内蒙古赤峰市达里湖的鱼类资源出现了衰退,经调整产业政策,渔业产量在大幅度下降后又有所回升。本文使用内蒙古赤峰市达里湖2000—2009年的渔业产量数据,并应用灰色预测模型对其未来5 a的渔业产量进行了预测。结果表明,使用全程数据进行预测的渔业产量将持续下降,与最近几年的渔业产量趋势明显不符,这是由于在数据序列的中段发生的渔业产业政策调整造成了产量大幅度下降,其惯性对预测结果产生了决定性影响,而仅使用产业政策调整后的数据进行预测,则渔业产量呈上升趋势,并有望恢复到历史最高水平,说明渔业产业政策调整有利于渔业资源的保护和可持续利用。本文的结果同时表明,应用于灰色预测的数据的外部条件的突然变化(如本文中的渔业产业结构调整),会对预测结果产生很大影响,在选择数据序列时应予以关注。此外如何对数据外部条件的突然变化进行量化评估,并嵌入灰色预测模型,使灰色预测模型能够应对数据外部条件的突然变化,也是今后的1个研究课题。 相似文献
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评估不同评估配置应对年龄空间结构的表现:基于印度洋长鳍金枪鱼的模拟研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
不同种群结构或种群分布的空间异质性是导致模型错误的一个重要因素，并在渔业资源评估中对参数估计有重要影响。本文根据状态相关的洄游率与区域相关的捕捞死亡率，利用合成模型，模拟了印度洋长鳍金枪鱼年龄空间结构的异质性，并生成了资源评估数据。基于这些数据，本文研究了用于空间异质资源评估模型的不同空间配置、选择曲线及CPUE（Catch Per Unit Effort）使用场景的表现。本文结果表明：（1） 尽管同操作模型一致的空间动态配置能在所有模拟场景中对相对产卵生物量、相对死亡系数、最大可持续产量提供准确、无偏估计，但若由于知识与数据限制，使空间动态配置与操作模型不一致，则其表现可能相当差；（2） 对于空间配置，边界划分必须正确，但对于非空间配置，不管边界划分正确与否，只要划分的区域能合理反映现场数据的变化，并能通过增加空间参考参数从而能有效减少忽略空间结构的影响即为合理；（3） 尽管区域作为渔业的方法及灵活的时变选择曲线是一个较好备选方法，可用于解决空间结构问题，但这些方法并不能完全消除由空间结构而引起模型错误导致的影响，从而使模型的参数估计具有很大的不确定性、相同评估模型不同参数的估计质量不一致、相同评估配置的评估质量在不同模拟场景下存在很大的差异；（4） 尽管采用多个CPUE指数一般可以避免最差的参数估计，但没有更好的选择或生成CPUE指数的方法可以用于显著提高资源评估质量，因为忽略空间结构将导致所有资源评估模型预测的CPUE所包含的信息通常不同于观测的CPUE。对比不同建模者的模型配置的评估结果，除了与操作模型完全匹配的空间配置外，其他模型配置的表现均与具体案例有关。从这个意义上讲，本文研究结果不仅对当前印度洋长鳍金枪鱼资源评估有益，也将增加对空间结构配置效果的理解。 相似文献
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《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2021,(11)
中国近海大多数渔业都属于数据有限渔业,用对数据要求较高的复杂模型无法对这些渔业资源做出有效评估,因此用数据有限评估模型评估渔业资源的研究具有重要意义。本文使用经典剩余产量模型(CEDA和ASPIC)和两种新型有限数据评估模型(贝叶斯Schaefer剩余产量模型(BSM)和蒙特卡洛MSY估算模型(CMSY)),评估了黄渤海鳀鱼(Engraulis japonicus)、东海带鱼(Trichiurus lepturus)和南海金线鱼(Nemipterus virgatus)这三种重要渔业资源的生物学参考点和资源现状。研究表明:黄渤海鳀鱼MSY估计值为80×10~4～83×10~4 t,生物学参考点F/F_(MSY)估计值小于1.0而B/B_(MSY)略小于1.0,表明这种渔业捕捞强度适中但资源尚未得到完全恢复。东海带鱼MSY估计值为58×10~4～64×10~4 t,F/F_(MSY)估计值大于1.0而B/B_(MSY)估计值小于1.0,表明这种渔业存在过度捕捞且资源已经衰退。南海金线鱼MSY为30×10~4～32×10~4 t,F/F_(MSY)估计值大于1.0而B/B_(MSY)估计值小于1.0,表明这种渔业存在过度捕捞且资源已经衰退。以上4种模型均可适用于中国近海数据有限的渔业资源,但两种经典剩余产量模型对三种渔业数据的拟合不够稳定(相关系数R~2波动较大),因此取BSM和CMSY模型的评估结果作为重要参考,但这两种有限数据评估模型的拟合效果尚需进行深入研究。 相似文献
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随着海洋渔业资源的不断衰退，为了保护渔业资源、推动海洋渔业的可持续发展，自20世纪70年代后期，我国出台了许多海洋捕捞相关政策。文章从投入控制制度、产出控制制度和技术控制制度3个角度出发，以捕捞许可制度、捕捞限额管理和伏季休渔制度等政策为重点，通过整理1980—2017年浙江省渔业经济的相关资料，从海洋捕捞渔船数量和功率、海洋捕捞产量、渔业劳动力数量变化3个方面，深入分析浙江省海洋捕捞现状，提出了完善现有的海洋捕捞政策、加强渔业执法管理力量、加强普法宣传、建立渔业资源调查与评估体系、帮助捕捞从业人员转产转业等对策建议，以期为我国海洋捕捞管理部门提供决策参考。 相似文献
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传统的渔业资源评估方法对数据有一定的要求，而现有的许多渔业缺乏相关数据，造成了渔业评估和管理上的障碍。特别是自然死亡率，由于观测和计算的困难，研究中一般通过经验公式等方法进行假话，而不同来源的数据和估算方法的结果存在较大差异，可能导致在渔业资源评估和管理中很大的不确定性。本研究以蓝点马鲛（Scomberomorus niphonius）为例，利用MSE比较了22种基于有限数据的渔业管理规程（MP），筛选出DCAC、SPMSY、curE75、minlenLopt1 4种对于M不确定性较为稳健的的管理方法，并针对不同年代的自然死亡率以及通过不同计算方法得出的自然死亡率对这4种MP进行了管理策略评价。结果表明：M自1980s至今的不同年代间有显著降低趋势，该变化对MP管理效果产生了较强影响。随着M降低，种群B>0.5BMSY的概率显著上升，而过度捕捞可能性在不同MP间有方向性的差异。M变化对对curE75、minlenLopt1的长期产量的影响较小，而对DCAC、SPMSY的AAVY<15%的可能性变化较大，即降低产量的波动。不同M估算方法的估计值相差不大，对MP管理影响不明显。综合结果来看，Cur75受自然死亡率不确定性影响较小，对于渔业资源的开发和保护两个方面有着最好的权衡，最适用于我国蓝点马鲛渔业的管理。 相似文献
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剩余产量模型在不同渔业中的应用 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
剩余产量模型因其简单和所需数据较少的特点为渔业资源评估广泛采用.本文应用目前常用的四种剩余产量模型对五种渔业下的渔业生物种群及北大西洋箭鱼种群xiphias gladius评估效果作了比较.四种剩余产量模型在渔业1中的评估效果较好,而在渔业2中的效果较差;Schnute模型在充分捕捞的渔业,如渔业3、4、5,尤其是在低生物量的渔业3中评估效果较好,但不适合评估未充分捕捞的渔业.Walters-Hilborn模型(W-H模型)适用于各种渔业,尤其是渔业1、4、5.在过度捕捞渔业中如渔业3、4,模型对参数q的估计较其它参数接近真值.在北大西洋箭鱼(xiphias gladius)渔业的评估中,W-H模型对MSY的估计约为14000吨,接近于Prager(1996)的结果. 相似文献
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《Journal of Sea Research》2007,57(2-3):114-125
Many flatfish species are caught in mixed demersal trawl fisheries and managed by Total Allowable Catch (TAC). Despite decades of fisheries management, several major stocks are severely depleted. Using the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) as an example, the failure of mixed-fisheries management is analysed by focussing on: the management system; the role of science; the role of managers and politicians; the response of fisheries to management. Failure of the CFP management could be ascribed to: incorrect management advice owing to bias in stock assessments; the tendency of politicians to set the TAC well above the recommended level; and non-compliance of the fisheries with the management regulations. We conclude that TAC management, although apparently successful in some single-species fisheries, inevitably leads to unsustainable exploitation of stocks caught in mixed demersal fisheries as it promotes discarding of over-quota catch and misreporting of catches, thereby corrupting the basis of the scientific advice and increasing the risk of stock collapse. This failure in mixed demersal fisheries has resulted in the loss of credibility of both scientists and managers, and has undermined the support of fishermen for management regulations. An approach is developed to convert the TAC system into a system that controls the total allowable effort (TAE). The approach takes account of the differences in catch efficiency between fleets as well as seasonal changes in the distribution of the target species and can also be applied in the recovery plans for rebuilding specific components of the demersal fish community, such as plaice, cod and hake. 相似文献
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《Marine Policy》2015
Extensive criticisms of the management of marine fisheries periodically arise for a variety of reasons. While the complexity of the US fisheries management process is partially to blame, these reasons manifest themselves in statements that include a perceived decline in living marine resource abundance levels, a proposed change in the regulatory infrastructure, or improvements in stock abundance that some feel should allow for new entrants. Following these criticisms are calls to end the federal management process or at the very least the replacement of the fishery management agency leadership. These demands driven by rent seeking behavior use short-term declines in abundance as justification when the long-run abundance measures would have indicated improvements in stock abundance and achievement of management objectives. Empirical, long-run, stock abundance indices are estimated using synthetic demand methodology, based on bioeconomic fishery theory, applied in a general and partial equilibrium theory framework to determine if maximum sustainable yield (MSY) management targets have been achieved and maintained for four fisheries considered to be successfully managed and one characterized as a socio-economic disaster. The abundance of a fish stock is more influence by extra-market and extra-fishery forces than by fisheries managers who base allocation decisions solely on single species stock assessments. 相似文献
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《Marine Policy》2017
Decisions regarding the selection and implementation of management strategies that constrain fishing pressure can be among the most difficult choices that fisheries managers and stakeholders must make. These types of decisions often need to be confronted in a data-limited context, where few if any management measures are currently in place or fisheries are managed independent of adequate scientific advice. This situation can sometimes create a high risk of overfishing and potential loss of economic and social benefits. To address this situation, simple model-free indicator-based frameworks have the potential to be effective decision-making platforms for fisheries where quantitative estimates of biomass and fishing mortality based reference points are lacking. In this paper, a multi-indicator framework is developed that enables decision-makers to proceed with management decisions in data-limited situations. Model-free indicators are calculated using trends in observed data, rather than stock assessment derived estimates of biomass and fishing mortality. The framework developed is adaptive so that adjustments to catch or effort are recursive and can respond to changing environments, socioeconomic conditions, and fishing practices. Using stakeholder-defined objectives as a foundation, indicators and reference points of fishery performance are chosen that can be evaluated easily by undertaking analyses of available data. Indicators from multiple data streams are used so that uncertainty in one indicator can be hedged through careful interpretation and corroboration of information from alternative indicators. During the adaptive management cycle, managers and stakeholders evaluate each indicator against the associated reference points to determine performance measures, interpret the results using scientific and local knowledge, and adjust fishery management tactics accordingly using pre-defined harvest control rules. The framework facilitates the interpretation of situations in which performance measures suggest divergent stock abundance or productivity levels. A case study is presented on this framework's development for conch and lobster fisheries of Belize. 相似文献
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《Marine Policy》2013
For several decades it has been acknowledged that there is an urgent need for new approaches to fisheries management, embracing conservation and environmental considerations. The voluntary Code of Conduct on Responsible Fishing and the United Nations Fish Stocks Agreement provide the formal basis for the Precautionary Approach to fisheries management. Some tuna Regional Fisheries Management Organisations such as the WCPFC and IATTC make explicit mention of these codes in their conventions, whilst others, whose conventions do not explicitly address the Precautionary Approach, are searching for ways in which to take these codes into consideration. In practical terms, the scientific obligations to Precautionary Approaches are to determine the status of the stock(s) relative to limit and target reference points, to predict outcomes of management alternatives for reaching the targets and avoiding the limits, and to characterise the uncertainty in both cases. A convenient framework to conduct management evaluations is through the use of harvest control rules, for which managers agree on specific management actions under their control which are evoked according to levels of stock status relative to predefined reference points. These pre-agreed management actions are then simulated for a range of scenarios. This paper presents the ways in which tuna RFMOs are currently incorporating the precautionary approach in their fisheries management as well as suggestions for possible best practice. 相似文献
15.
The usefulness of conventional fisheries science for long-term fisheries management and policies in the resource-poor islands of the Pacific is very limited. Fishery managers can, however, make use of such alternative sources of information as archaeological and historical data to develop fishery management initiatives. Most Pacific Islands were settled by humans over the last three millennia, although human settlement in Western Melanesia dates from the late Pleistocene, a period of about 40 millennia. Archaeological studies over the past half-century contain information on the long-term subsistence exploitation of fish and invertebrates from nearshore coral reefs and lagoons. Molluscs appear to have been a very important food source for early human colonists in the Pacific Islands, but declines in abundance through harvest pressure and environmental changes forced a greater reliance on fin-fish capture and on agriculture. There is no firm evidence from the archaeological record to suggest that long-term subsistence exploitation of reef fish populations has had any serious negative effects on abundance or structure of reef fish communities. Sources for more recent historical information are also exemplified and briefly examined for their usefulness in assessing the impacts of commercial fishing. It is argued that fishery managers who adopt a data-less approach to fishery management could profitably use these sources of information to enrich their assessment of the impacts of various management scenarios. 相似文献
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《Marine Policy》2016
An important component of science-based fisheries policy is the provision of habitat adequate for population renewal. In Canada, the Fisheries Act pays little attention to managing fish habitat, and was further weakened by changes enacted in 2012. Specifically, determining the role of fish habitat in contributing to fisheries and fish stock recovery is challenging when many stocks have severely declined and no longer occupy former habitats. This study compared the abundance of juvenile fish in coastal vegetated habitats before and after collapse or decline of groundfish stocks in Atlantic Canada. This comparison was done by compiling past studies that surveyed juvenile Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and pollock (Pollachius virens) in vegetated habitats across three provinces. Two studies were repeated, and one that already had post-collapse data was analyzed to quantify long-term changes in juvenile abundance. In all three cases substantial reduction in juvenile abundance coincided with declines in adult stocks. However, juvenile fish still occur in coastal habitats and could aid in adult stock recovery. The current version of the Canadian Fisheries Act requires presence of an ongoing fishery to trigger habitat protection. This is problematic as low fish abundance may lead to lowered habitat protection and potentially habitat degradation, with less or lesser-quality habitat for fish in the future. Thus, recommendations are made to repeal the 2012 Fisheries Act changes and enhance current fish habitat legislation. Using a precautionary approach for coastal fish habitat management, particularly in valuing its potential for fish stock recovery, would strengthen Canadian fisheries management. 相似文献
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《African Journal of Marine Science》2013,35(1):975-988
There are currently three dominant approaches to fisheries stock assessment: analysis of catch-at-age data; simple models of biomass dynamics (often called surplus production models) that rely only on catch and some index of abundance; and analysis of length frequency data. A key characteristic of all these methods is that they rely primarily on one type of data and ignore most of what is known about the biology of the species in question and what has been learned from fisheries elsewhere. Other information is sometimes included subjectively after the stock assessment is complete. The first major trend in assessment methods is developing ways of incorporating all that is known about the biology of a species into a single unified assessment procedure. The second major development is in methods of incorporating uncertainty in stock assessment, using statistical decision theory. At present few agencies have formal methods for treating the uncertainty inherent in stock assessment, and therefore uncertainty is often ignored. A number of trends in fisheries management are reviewed, including adoption of formal harvest strategies, recognition that fisheries management is a matter of decision-making and risk-taking, and the use of Monte-Carlo evaluation of fisheries management options. Future trends in stock assessment and management will likely include more attention to the behaviour of fishermen in response to regulations, more involvement of user-groups in decision-making, much more allocation of property rights, including complete privatization of some fisheries, and demand for evaluation of cost effectiveness of research and management activities. Threats to commercial fisheries as now known are discussed, including growing allocation to recreational and aboriginal users, environmentalists and the impact of aquaculture. 相似文献
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Dietmar Grimm Ivan Barkhorn David Festa Kate Bonzon Judd Boomhower Valerie Hovland Jason Blau 《Marine Policy》2012,36(3):644-657
What are the effects of transitioning traditionally managed fisheries to incentive-based catch shares fisheries? In a study of all major United States federal catch share fisheries and associated shared stock fisheries in British Columbia, catch shares result in environmental improvements, economic improvements, and a mixture of changes in social performance, relative to the race for fish under traditional management. Environmentally, compliance with total allowable catch increases and discards decrease. Economically, vessel yields rise, total revenues grow, and long-term stock increases are encouraged. Socially, safety increases, some port areas modestly consolidate, needed processing capacity often reduces, and labor markets shift from part time jobs to full time jobs with similar total employment. Newer catch shares address many social concerns through careful design. 相似文献
20.
《Marine Policy》2017
Eco-labeling is a market-driven mechanism to promote sustainable fisheries. The most widely used certification scheme for seafood eco-labeling is issued by the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC), but the MSC has been criticized for favoring large-scale industrial fisheries. The benefits from eco-labeling can potentially be significant, ranging from price premiums to enriched understanding of fisheries management among fishers; however, anecdotal evidence from MSC-certified fisheries across various countries highlights the struggle of many small-scale fisheries to meet the costs of certification. The lack of environmental awareness in domestic markets can impede the spread of MSC eco-labeling among small-scale fisheries. In the absence of consumer preferences for seafood sustainability, and without subsidies, the certification may not be an appropriate tool for small-scale seafood producers. Examination of the case of an MSC-certified small-scale fishery suggests some efforts to achieve economies of scale; multi-species fisheries can apply for MSC certification as a single unit of assessment, and fisheries can cooperate with neighboring fisheries that target the same fish stock to share assessment costs. In a market where no price premium has been generated, effective face-to-face marketing is pivotal. The MSC will need to be committed to pursuing price premiums in new markets if it is to extend its reach further to small-scale fisheries. 相似文献