共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 125 毫秒
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西北太平洋热带气旋中期路径的统计释用综合预报模式 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
提出一个热带气旋中期路径的统计释用综合预报模式。该模式应用ＴＣ参数，初妈时刻及未来时刻的环境场参数和导出因子，构造了多种中期天气时空惊讶的预报因子；应用数值天气预报产品的统计释用技术和多种分类预报模式的综合集成，构造了ＴＣ中期路径的客观定量预报模式。 相似文献
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利用变分同化技术,将船舶报资料与海表面温度短期数值预报模式有机结合,实现了渤、黄、东海的海表面温度短期数值预报。本预报模式利用伴随方法实现了预报模式的全局优化,不但最大限度地利用了船舶报资料,而且初始温度场的调整由自动的数值迭代过程来实现。在渤、黄、东海海域,4个季节的典型月份的SST连续1个月的24h后报结果与船舶报资料均方差均降至0.8℃以下。同化后海表面温度初始场的绝均差较同化前有显著下降。与以前所用的客观分析方法比较的结果表明,伴随同化的预报精度明显高于客观分析方法。 相似文献
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对一个热带太平洋海气耦合ENSO集合数值预测系统进行历史后报检验。该系统模式为一个中等复杂程度的耦合模式,其中大气部分为统计模式,海洋部分为动力模式。扰动初始场通过集合卡尔曼滤波同化获得,并引入了模式误差,由一阶马尔科夫随机微分方程生成。集合预报样本数为100个。系统从1993—2011年共19 a的每个月都开始起报,每个预报样本都分别向后预报12个月。给出了El Nino指数时间序列预报结果检验、个例预报检验,以及El Nino指数和热带太平洋SSTA的相关系数和均方根误差检验,计算了模式的平均系统误差,并分析了其不同季节的预报性能。结果表明,系统具有较强的ENSO预测能力,能够提前6~12个月给出有参考价值的预报。 相似文献
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Kalman滤波风暴潮数值预报四维同化模式研究进展 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
本文首先介绍了Kalman滤波在风暴潮数值预报中的应用，特别介绍了近年来国际上发展的一些在实际中可行的次优化Kalman滤波算法。并通过一个稳态Kalman滤波风暴潮数值预报模式的实例表明，使用资料同化可以明显改进风暴潮后报结果；资料同化能够提供更为合理的预报初始场，对风暴潮的短期预报有较明显的改进。一旦没有资料同化到模式中去，预报结果很快接近确定性模式。 相似文献
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南海及周边海域风浪流耦合同化精细化数值预报与信息服务系统简介 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
面向社会需求,建立覆盖南海及周边海域的高分辨率风-浪-流耦合同化数值预报与信息服务系统。系统包含耦合同化数值预报模式、海洋动力环境数据库与可视化平台两部分。其中,耦合同化数值预报模式由中尺度大气数值预报模式、海浪数值预报模式和区域海洋环流数值模式,在C-Coupler耦合器中进行耦合,引入集合调整Kalman滤波同化模块,在耦合预报前进行大气、海浪和海流的同化后报模拟,为耦合预报模式提供更为精确的初始场。预报结果经海洋动力环境数据库和可视化平台处理后,通过二维和三维可视化展示,向用户提供直观的南海及周边海域海洋环境预报产品。 相似文献
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本文以我国北黄海的烟威渔场为研究对象,采用优选因子场预报模式,对盐度的时空变化进行预报试验。文中对所采用的统计预报方法,作了简要介绍。对影响本海区盐度变化的显著因子及预报结果作了初步分析。预报试验表明:预报的总体平均绝对误差为0.27‰,预报相对误差在18％左右,预报误差小于0.5‰的站数占总站数的85％,预报趋势与实测资料基本一致。 相似文献
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Numerical modeling was applied to study the generation of transversal jet filaments observed in the summer of 1999 after an upwelling event off the northern coast of the Gulf of Finland. An eddy resolving model well reproduces the mesoscale coherent structures observed. It was shown that they represent manifestations of instability of alongshore baroclinic jet currents of an upwelling-downwelling origin. An estimate of the effective lateral eddy diffusivity in the mesoscale coherent structures equal to 500 m2/s was obtained as a result of statistical processing of pseudorandom model fields of the temperature and current velocity. 相似文献
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《Marine Geology》2005,216(4):205-219
Offshore Ecuador, the Carnegie Ridge is a volcanic ridge with a carbonate sediment drape. During the SALIERI Cruise, multibeam bathymetry was collected across Carnegie Ridge with the Simrad EM120 of the R/V SONNE. The most conspicuous features discovered on the Carnegie Ridge are fields of circular closed depressions widely distributed along the mid-slope of the northern and southern flanks of the ridge between 1500 and 2600 m water depth. These circular depressions are 1–4 km wide and typically 100–400 m deep. Most are flat floored and some are so densely packed that they form a honeycomb pattern. The depressions were carved into the ridge sedimentary blanket, which consists of carbonate sediment and has been dated from upper Miocene to upper Pleistocene. Several hypotheses including pockmark origin, sediment creeping, paleo-topography of the volcanic basement, effects of subbottom currents, and both marine and subaerial karstic origins are discussed. We believe that underwater dissolution process merits the most serious consideration regarding the origin of the closed depression. 相似文献
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F. Pogarskii V. Polnikov S. A. Sannasiraj 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2012,48(6):639-656
In this paper, a detailed statistical analysis of the wind and wave fields in the Indian Ocean (IO) for the period of 1998-2009 was performed based on using the wind fields taken from the site of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NCEP/NOAA) [1] and on the numerical wind-wave model WAM [2] modified with the source function proposed in [3]. The primary analysis of the fields includes mapping the wind and wave fields, as well as their energy fields, calculated with different scales of space-time averaging; the subsequent zoning of the IO area; and assessing the seasonal interannual variability of all the fields and their 12-years trends. Further analysis is carried out taking into account the zoning. This analysis includes a construction of the time series obtained with different scales of space-time averaging for all the fields, a spectral analysis of these series, finding and analyzing the spatial and temporal distribution of extrema of the wind and wave fields (accounting for the their sharing in the zones), and making histograms of the wind and wave fields and calculating their first four statistical moments (in the zones and in the ocean as a whole). The results allow us to evaluate a large set of statistical characteristics of the wind and wave fields in the IO area, scales of their variability, their long-term trends, and the features of distribution for these statistical characteristics in the ocean area as well. 相似文献
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南冲绳海槽岩石圈构造动力作用机制探讨 总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8
由最新获得的重磁、地震和多波束地形数据 ,结合多尺度的地幔流动力分析 ,展示了南冲绳海槽岩石圈构造动力的多样性特征和其内在的联系。从上新世开始的三幕张性断陷活动是在以前的压性断裂构造的基础上发展起来的 ,向岛弧侧迁移 ,岩浆、火山活动主要集中在正断层与平移断层的交汇处。深部动力源可归结为上地幔对流产生的菲律宾海板块俯冲 ,引起岛弧岩石圈挤压褶皱而向海沟旋张掀斜 ,产生弧后岩石圈的张性构造 ;进一步引起弧后软流圈挤压隆起 ,岩石圈与软流圈耦合作用导致海槽断陷张裂、岩浆活动。冲绳海槽仍是一个软流圈在汇聚的弧后盆地。全球性左旋压扭滑移背景 ,琉球海沟南段俯冲受阻小、强度大 ,台湾—吕宋的北向挤压 ,使海槽表现为剪张性 ,由平移断层调控使张性断裂左旋雁行排列 ,整个海槽张性构造由北往南推进 ,张应力方向由NW过渡到NNW。 相似文献
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V. V. Knysh S. G. Demyshev G. K. Korotaev A. S. Sarkisyan 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2007,43(3):363-377
A method for combined assimilation of climatic hydrologic fields of temperature, salinity, and the climatic dynamic level of the Black Sea into a model of sea dynamics is proposed. The monthly mean fields of the dynamic sea level were obtained from the results of assimilation of satellite altimetry data into the model. The statistical characteristics of errors in the forecasts of the level, salinity, and temperature were assumed to be proportional to the statistical characteristics of the differences between monthly mean climatic fields of temperature, salinity, and sea level calculated by means of assimilating altimetry observations of the sea level and analogous climatic hydrologic fields. The climatic fields of currents are reconstructed and analyzed. The assimilation of the climatic altimetry level allows the reproduction (in current fields) of quasi-stationary synoptic anticyclonic eddies located along the periphery of the Black Sea Rim Current. 相似文献
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近几年海洋灾害所造成的经济损呈上升趋势，成为制约我国沿海经济发展的重要环境因素之一。风暴潮所造成的直接经济损失居海洋灾害之首。它象大江、大河与湖泊的洪水灾害一样，也成为中华民族的心腹之患。作者重点论述了减轻海洋灾害所具有的现实意义和战略意义并对如何减轻灾害提出了对策建议。 相似文献
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Two large oil fields (QHD32-6 and QHD33-1), located in the middle part of the Shijiutuo Uplift, have generally suffered mild biodegradation. Based on multivariate statistical analysis of the biomarker parameters, this study discussed the origin and charging directions for these two oil fields.In contrast to Ed3-derived oil, all available oil samples from these two large oil fields displayed low C19/C23, C24/C26 and high G/H and 4-MSI, which are attributed to the mixtures of oils derived from the Shahejie (Es1 and Es3) source rocks. Oils in QHD32-6, which contain relatively more Es3-derived oil, are called Group I oils, and most oils in QHD33-1, which share relatively more Es1-derived oil, are called Group II oils. Our mixed oil experiments reveal the predominant Es3- and Es1-derived oil contribution for Group I and Group II oil groups, respectively; however, the selection of end member oils warrants further research.Based on comparisons of biomarker parameters, the QHD32-6 oil field was mainly charged in the north by oil generated from Shahejie formation source rocks in the Bozhong depression. However, oils from the north of QHD32-6 field display a remarkable difference to the oils in the south of this field, which may indicate that a charging pathway exists from the QHD33-1 field. Considering the variations in biomarker compositions in the west to -east and northwest to -southeast sections across the QHD33-1 and QHD32-6 oil fields, it can be deduced that Es3-sourced oil migrated westward to the QHD32-6 traps, and then charging by Es1 oil from the Bozhong Sag resulted in the QHD33-1 oil field being characterized by the mixture of Es3- and Es1-sourced oil. Moreover, migration of Es1-derived oil from the Qinnan Sag was not identified, implying that the QHD33-1 oil field is mainly charged from the northeast of the Bozhong Sag. 相似文献
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东海西湖凹陷油气地质条件及其勘探潜力 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
以现代油气地质理论为指导,系统分析了东海陆架盆地西湖凹陷的烃源岩、储集岩、盖层及圈闭等油气系统形成的基本要素,并探讨了油气勘探潜力和方向.研究表明,西湖凹陷具备大、中型油气田形成的基本油气地质条件,具有巨大的油气勘探潜力,勘探前景广阔,存在多个有利的油气勘探领域. 相似文献
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We analyze the statistical structure of the data of remote sensing of the fields of surface temperature and the concentration
of chlorophyll in the northwest part of the Black Sea with an aim to apply the method of optimal interpolation to the restoration
of the maps of these fields according to the restricted amounts of data. We determine the scales of smoothing for the selection
of the random components of the fields and estimate their difference from the statistical model uniform and isotropic over
the space correlation coefficients. The functions of spectral densities are constructed along various sections and the best
intervals of discretization of the fields required to perform the optimal interpolation with given accuracy are determined.
It is shown that the construction of the maps of fields under the conditions of controlled accuracy of reconstruction of their
values remains possible even if the amounts of the input satellite data are significantly decreased. We consider a procedure
of evaluation of the best possible amounts of data required for the use of the method of optimal interpolation. Some examples
of application of this procedure to the data of remote sensing of the fields of surface temperature and the concentration
of chlorophyll are presented. 相似文献