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利用中尺度气象模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)、无结构网格近岸海洋模式FVCOM(Finite-Volume Coastal and Ocean Model)和基于蒙特卡洛随机统计理论的海上搜救目标漂移轨迹模式Leeway,建立了长江口及邻近海域海上搜救物漂移轨迹预测模型系统。漂移轨迹预测以风和表层海流预报为基础,考虑了包括落水位置和时间、风致漂移方向、搜救目标物状态的不确定性以及风场预报误差带来的漂移路径预测误差,经统计获得搜救目标物可能漂移集合范围。对近年来发生在长江口邻近海域的海难事故后报模拟验证结果证明了Leeway模式在长江口邻近海域的适用性,同时表明所建立的搜救模型系统具有较高的精度,操作方便、时效性高,在搜救业务化预报工作中具有广阔的应用前景。 相似文献
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为探讨海上搜救目标无动力渔船和落水人员在海水中的漂移规律,对现有海上搜救目标漂移轨迹预测模型进行评估与改进,国家海洋局南海海洋工程勘察中心于2011年2月和4月在广东近岸海域开展了3组模拟人和2组无动力船海上漂移试验。试验发现模拟人与无动力船大部分时刻的漂移轨迹位于下风向的右侧,80%以上的时刻漂移轨迹位于海流流向和下风向的矢量合成区间内。以漂移速度为应变量,流速和风速为自变量进行二元回归分析发现,广东海域的模拟人和无动力渔船的流致漂移参数约为1.0,风致漂移参数分别为0.019和0.038。 相似文献
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为了提高现有的海上搜救和绿潮漂移预测模型的预报精度,在2011年7月20日进行了一次落水人员、绿潮和无动力船漂移预测的海上试验。通过分析这三种海上漂移物运移轨迹的实验数据,确立了落水人员、绿潮、以及无动力船在海上漂移轨迹的主要影响因素。实验结果表明,落水人员和绿潮的漂移轨迹比较一致,基本都受限制于海流运动。其中,落水人员相较于绿潮来说受到潮流的作用比较大,风对绿潮的影响相比对落水人员的影响大。无动力船的漂移轨迹与落水人员和绿潮的漂移轨迹略有不同,受潮流往复作用较小。根据海上实验的结果,我们重新确立了搜救模型的中海流和风应力的参数,使得搜救模型的模拟结果更吻合于实验数据。 相似文献
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无动力或破损的船舶在海上自由漂移对海上的各项生产活动是一个巨大的危险。通过对海上漂浮的船舶进行受力分析,考虑船舶的外形特征及漂浮状态,建立了海上船舶漂移轨迹模型,对船舶海面以上与以下侧向投影面积之比(面积比)、风拖曳系数、流拖曳系数等参数均进行了敏感性分析,并针对2018年1月6日爆燃的"桑吉"油轮漂移轨迹开展了模拟应用。结果表明该模型针对不同类型海上船舶的漂移轨迹有一定合理的模拟能力,船舶面积比是准确模拟漂移轨迹的一个重要参数,同时,该模型对风拖曳系数、流拖曳系数较为敏感。针对"桑吉"油轮的模拟,科氏力的作用不可忽视,考虑科氏力作用后漂移轨迹的模拟效果得到了很好的改善。 相似文献
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蓬莱19-3 油田事故溢油数值模拟 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用FVCOM(Finite-volume coastal ocean numerical model)数值模型和MM5风场预报模式,在对渤海海域水动力场进行数值模拟的基础上,基于"油粒子"的欧拉-拉格朗日跟踪法和随机走动原理,并考虑风对溢油油膜漂移扩散的直接作用,建立了海洋溢油油膜漂移轨迹和扩散的数值预测模型。利用建立的模型对2011年6月蓬莱19-3油田事故溢油进行了数值模拟,模拟结果与RADARSAT卫星遥感监测数据相吻合。研究结果表明:在渤海中部地区夏季事故溢油模拟预测中,风漂移因子取0.024最为合理,模型可用于渤海蓬莱19-3油田附近事故溢油轨迹和扩散的快速预报,从而为该区域的溢油事故应急响应提供科学依据。 相似文献
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We implement an approach for the accurate assimilation of Lagrangian data into regional general ocean circulation models. The forward model is expressed in Lagrangian coordinates and simulated float data are incorporated into the model via four-dimensional variational data assimilation. We show that forward solutions computed in Lagrangian coordinates are reliable for time periods of up to 100 days with phase speeds of 1 m/s and deformation radius of 35 km. The position and depth of simulated floats are assimilated into the viscous, Lagrangian shallow water equations. The weights for the errors in the model and data are varied and the assimilation results react appropriately. We show the effect of different spatial and temporal samplings of float data on all Lagrangian trajectories in the computational domain. At the end of the assimilation period, results from the Lagrangian shallow water equations could be interpolated and used as initial and boundary conditions in an Eulerian general ocean circulation model. 相似文献
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收集2000—2018 年福建近岸海域224 次赤潮事件资料，通过综合分析结果表明：2000—2018 年福建近岸海域赤潮发现数量和面积分别占全国的17.3%和6.1%。2015—2018 年相对于2000—2004、2005—2009、2010—2014 年赤潮年均发现数量和面积有明显下降。赤潮发现月份和空间特征明显，5—6 月为高发期；宁德、福州、平潭、厦门、泉州海域是赤潮高发区；4 个时间段比较宁德和厦门海域年均发现赤潮数量下降明显，平潭海域略微下降，泉州海域增加。由甲藻门生物引发的赤潮数量、面积和损失均最高，诱发赤潮的生物类群存在南北差异，有毒赤潮占总赤潮数量的14.3%。根据提出的赤潮等级划分标准，福建近岸海域以小型赤潮为主。建议在宁德至平潭近岸海域、泉州近岸海域加强赤潮立体化监测系统的建设，5—6 月为监测的关键时期。 相似文献
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福建沿海海域波浪能资源分析与评价 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
采用波浪模拟的方法,较准确计算得出福建沿海海域波浪能资源分布状况,并给出相应的分析和综合评价.主要结论如下:(1)福建沿海海域波浪能平均密度为2.6～7.3 kW/m,波浪能资源储量为2 210.45 MW,在我国沿海海域仅次于台湾和广东,是波浪能开发利用可以优先考虑的海区之一.(2)福建沿海海域波浪能资源储量的70%分布于平潭岛以北海域,其值达1 512.49 MW.其中,尤以北礵地区值最大,为378.80 MW.(3)以年平均波高为指标,福建沿海海域中东山区段为三类区,其他区段均为一类区和二类区,具有良好的开发前景.(4)福建沿海海域波浪能具有波功率密度低、资源分布广泛且不均匀、波功率密度随季节变化、能量具有多向性等分布特点.(5)基于福建波浪能的开发与利用现状,建议应优先着眼于解决边远海岛等特殊场所的用电问题. 相似文献
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基于高分四号卫星的黄海绿潮漂移速度提取研究 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
静止轨道卫星高分四号（GF-4）具有高时间分辨率（20 s）和高空间分辨率（50 m）的独特优势。为了挖掘GF-4卫星在海洋灾害监测中的应用潜力，本文基于2016年6月25日1天4景的GF-4卫星影像，利用最大相关系数法（MCC），开展了黄海绿潮漂移速度提取研究，分析了海面风场、潮汐等对绿潮漂移的影响。研究发现:（1）MCC方法可高精度自动追踪GF-4影像中绿潮的分钟级（8~9 min）位置变化，绿潮漂移速率和方向的相对偏差分别为11%和5%；当2景GF-4影像的成像时间间隔增大至小时级（如6 h）时，随着绿潮斑块形状的改变，MCC方法绿潮自动追踪的准确性下降。（2）绿潮在1天之中的漂移速率和方向可发生显著变化，当日上午9时黄海绿潮漂移速率均值为（0.36±0.13）m/s，方向以东南向为主，至15时，绿潮漂移速率显著增加至（0.69±0.12）m/s，方向变为东北偏北。（3）绿潮漂移速度与海面风速的相关系数为0.74，绿潮漂移方向为风向偏右；绿潮的向岸、离岸运动与相应时刻的涨、落潮具有较好的对应关系。GF-4卫星数据可为绿潮快速漂移的高精度监测提供数据支撑。 相似文献
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《Coastal Engineering》2001,42(2):115-142
The Arcachon Lagoon on the French Atlantic coast is a triangular shaped lagoon of 20 km on a side connected to the ocean by a 3-km wide inlet between the mainland and an elongated sand spit. This tidal inlet exhibits a particularly active morphology due to locally strong tidal currents and rough wave conditions. During the past 300 years, minimum and maximum spatial extents of the Cap Ferret sand spit have varied by 8 km while one or two channels have alternately allowed circulation between the lagoon and the ocean. These impressive morphological changes have never prevented regular flushing of the lagoon, eventhough the spit came as close as 300 m from the coast during the 18th century. According to Bruun's concept of tidal inlet stability [Theory and Engineering (1978), 510 pp.], the balance between longshore littoral transport and the tidal prism ensures the perpetuity of the inlet.Process modeling was believed to give better insight into the respective roles of tides and waves in driving the long-term morphological changes of the inlet. A two-dimensional horizontal morphodynamic model was therefore developed, combining modules for hydrodynamics, waves, sediment transport and bathymetry updates. The use of process models at a scale of decades requires a schematization of the input conditions. We defined representative mean annual wave and tide conditions with respect to sediment transport, i.e. conditions that induce the same annual transport as measured in the field. Driven by these representative conditions, simulations run from the 1993 bathymetry show that the tide is responsible for the opening of a new channel at the extremity of the sand spit (where tidal currents are the strongest), while waves induce a littoral transport responsible for the longshore drift of sand bodies across the inlet. One particular simulation consisted in running the model from a hypothetical initial topography where the channels are filled with sand and the entire inlet is set to a constant depth (3 m). The results show the reproduction of a channel and bar system comparable to historical observations, which supports the idea that the lagoon is unlikely to be disconnected from the ocean, provided tide and wave conditions remain fairly constant in the following decades. 相似文献
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应用非结构网格有限体积海洋模型对平潭竹屿湾水交换能力和溢油扩散开展了数值模拟。水交换能力计算表明,竹屿湾大部分水域水体半交换时间小于1.0 d,平均滞留时间约3.0 d左右,水体冲洗时间为15.0 d,水交换能力较强。48 h溢油扩散计算结果表明,油粒子扫海范围及运动路径与油粒子的释放时刻及风的作用紧密相关。静风条件下,溢油运动主要受当地潮流影响,呈南-北往复运动。不利风作用下,竹屿水道的溢油可以扩散至平潭坛南湾、平潭草屿岛、塘屿岛及高山湾等海域,最远可到南日岛西北海域。 相似文献
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Modeling the Tide System of the East China Sea with GIS 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
This article describes systematic research on the tide dynamic system under the support of the Geographic Information System and ocean fluid dynamics model. Through the high-resolution numerical simulation, we found some previously unreported phenomena, such as a low tide amplitude zone of the M2 constituent near Zhoushan isles, a low tide amplitude zone of the K1 constituent near Taiwan island, and a circular flow point band. The results of this research also show that the formation of the tide system is affected by sea-bottom friction coefficient, topography under water, and shoreline morphology. The change of shoreline morphology and significant change of topography under water play important roles in the tide system. Under specified conditions on input tide waves, shoreline morphology has a dominant impact on the formation of the tide system. With the systematically reconstructed sea level and the coastal change of 30 periods since the Pleni Glacier, the evolution process of the tide system of the East China Sea was simulated. Based on the simulation analysis of relationships among topography, shoreline and tide flow, this study concludes that the characteristic of the tide dynamic system is a dominant influencing factor on the formation of large-scale sand ridge clusters. In this article, the integration of the Geographic Information System, tide numerical simulation system, and tide movement visualization system are discussed as an example for related studies. 相似文献
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海洋一号C（HY-1C）卫星是中国首颗海洋水色业务卫星,其搭载的海岸带成像仪（CZI）在近海海洋环境监测中正发挥越来越重要的作用;随着搭载有相同传感器的HY-1D卫星发射,双星组网观测,可形成3天2次的高频次、大范围对海观测能力,在海洋漂浮藻类、海洋溢油等目标探测方面具备优异的效能。高空间分辨率光学数据中包含了丰富的海洋环境信息,给特定目标的识别提取带来一定干扰。本研究面向HY-1C卫星CZI载荷开展中国近海漂浮藻类识别提取的业务化应用需求,发展基于藻类缩放指数与虚拟基线高度融合的海洋漂浮藻类识别提取算法,算法优选适用于无短波红外波段国产数据的虚拟基线高度指数来增强藻类信号,通过藻类缩放指数滑动窗口运算,有效剔除高空间分辨率光学数据中的复杂干扰信息,实现了基于CZI数据的海洋漂浮藻类高精度提取,且具有较好的计算运行效率。此外,结合准同步高分卫星16 m多光谱数据,开展CZI数据含藻像元的不确定性分析,发现CZI数据反演结果对近海小斑块漂浮藻类存在不可忽视的高估现象。研究还指出,光学数据用于漂浮藻类监测,其不确定性不仅来源于传感器的空间分辨率差异,还与海洋漂浮藻类形态特征的空间分异性有关。明晰海洋漂浮藻类的形态学空间分异特征,将有助于提高光学数据反演结果的精度,并阐明不确定性。 相似文献
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Emanuele Di Lorenzo Andrew M. Moore Hernan G. Arango Bruce D. Cornuelle Arthur J. Miller Brian Powell Boon S. Chua Andrew F. Bennett 《Ocean Modelling》2007,16(3-4):160-187
We describe the development and preliminary application of the inverse Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), a four dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation system for high-resolution basin-wide and coastal oceanic flows. Inverse ROMS makes use of the recently developed perturbation tangent linear (TL), representer tangent linear (RP) and adjoint (AD) models to implement an indirect representer-based generalized inverse modeling system. This modeling framework is modular. The TL, RP and AD models are used as stand-alone sub-models within the Inverse Ocean Modeling (IOM) system described in [Chua, B.S., Bennett, A.F., 2001. An inverse ocean modeling system. Ocean Modell. 3, 137–165.]. The system allows the assimilation of a wide range of observation types and uses an iterative algorithm to solve nonlinear assimilation problems. The assimilation is performed either under the perfect model assumption (strong constraint) or by also allowing for errors in the model dynamics (weak constraints). For the weak constraint case the TL and RP models are modified to include additional forcing terms on the right hand side of the model equations. These terms are needed to account for errors in the model dynamics.Inverse ROMS is tested in a realistic 3D baroclinic upwelling system with complex bottom topography, characterized by strong mesoscale eddy variability. We assimilate synthetic data for upper ocean (0–450 m) temperatures and currents over a period of 10 days using both a high resolution and a spatially and temporally aliased sampling array. During the assimilation period the flow field undergoes substantial changes from the initial state. This allows the inverse solution to extract the dynamically active information from the synthetic observations and improve the trajectory of the model state beyond the assimilation window. Both the strong and weak constraint assimilation experiments show forecast skill greater than persistence and climatology during the 10–20 days after the last observation is assimilated.Further investigation in the functional form of the model error covariance and in the use of the representer tangent linear model may lead to improvement in the forecast skill. 相似文献