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1.
The geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) offers notable potential, as part of larger carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) processes, to be a significant climate change mitigation technology. This paper challenges the argument often put forward that, due to the greater distances from centres of population, it will be ‘easier’ to garner public and stakeholder support for offshore CO2 storage than onshore. Based on the results of research interviews carried out with stakeholders and informed publics in Scotland, challenges for public and stakeholder acceptance of sub-seabed CO2 storage that may require further policy attention are identified. Whilst existing policy for sub-seabed CO2 storage is cognisant of the need for societal engagement, it may be the case that these regulations may need further reinforcement to ensure future developments are able to address social acceptability issues as fully as possible. The value of taking into account social as well as physical characteristics at the site selection phase, the need for mechanisms to take seriously stakeholder conceptions of uncertainty, and the importance of extending social engagement beyond risk communication are discussed.  相似文献   

2.
Depleted gas fields have been identified as potential targets for CO2 storage. In order to maximise storage capacity, a target field must be deep enough to ensure that the CO2 is in a dense phase (either liquid or supercritical). Accurate assessment of the storage capacity also requires an estimation of the amount of CO2 that can be safely stored beneath the reservoir seal which can be estimated in several ways. In this paper we develop a methodology to convert known pre-production gas column heights into CO2 column heights in order to estimate storage capacities. Several authors have correctly identified that the differences in interfacial tension and wettability act to reduce the threshold capillary entry pressure for CO2 compared to natural gas, consequently reducing column height estimates. However, under reservoir conditions the density of CO2 is substantially higher than natural gas so the buoyancy force on the seal for a fixed column height is much lower for dense phase CO2 increasing column height estimates; we investigate the effects of this trade off on storage estimates and apply it to a typical dataset, in this case the UK North Sea.  相似文献   

3.
Feasibility studies recently suggest that sequestration of anthropogenic CO2 in the deep ocean could help reduce the atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, implementation of this strategy could have a significant environmental impact on marine organisms. This has highlighted the urgent need of further studies concerning the biological impact of CO2 ocean sequestration. In this paper we summarize the recent literature reporting on the biological impact of CO2 and discuss the research work required for the future. Although fundamental research of the effect of CO2 on marine organisms before the practical consideration of CO2 ocean sequestration was limited, laboratory and field studies concerning biological impacts have been increasing after the first international workshop in 1991 discussing CO2 ocean sequestration. Acute impacts of CO2 ocean sequestration could be determined by laboratory and field experiments and assessed by simulation models as described by the following papers in this section. On the other hand, chronic effects of CO2 ocean sequestration, those directly related to the marine ecosystem, would be difficult to verify by means of experiments and to assess using ecosystem models. One of the practical solutions for this issue implies field experiments starting with controlled small scale and eventually to a large scale of CO2 injection intended to determine ecosystem alteration. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

4.
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one method to reduce CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. As CCS has the greatest potential for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction, it gains a wide currency in the developed countries. However, the technology for CCS does not spread at the international level especially to the developing countries like South China Sea states. As the CO2 storage period is quite long and potential environmental risks involved, fully deployed CCS projects need not only the technological support but the appropriate legal and regulatory regime to safeguard CCS operations. This article offers a survey of CCS projects in the South China Sea region and discusses the legal challenges associated with CCS activities in state practice.  相似文献   

5.
Factors controlling the CO2 system parameters, including the partial pressure of CO2 (PCO2) in coral reef waters, were investigated in three mid-oceanic reefs of the Indo-Pacific region. Surface water PCO2 in the lagoons of Majuro Atoll and Palau barrier reef in the Pacific were 25 µatm and 48 µatm higher than those of the offshore waters, respectively, while South Male Atoll lagoon of the Maldives in the Indian Ocean exhibited relatively small difference in PCO2 compared to the offshore water. Observations from Majuro Atoll and Palau barrier reef are consistent with the view that calcium carbonate production predominates in coral reefs. On the other hand, results from South Male Atoll can be attributed to the thorough flushing of the lagoon, which is connected to the open ocean by numerous deep channels. The offshore-lagoon PCO2 difference depends on system-level net organic-to-inorganic carbon production ratio while reef topography, especially residence time of the lagoon, has a secondary effect on the magnitude of the offshore-lagoon difference. A potential for releasing CO2 might be more evident in an enclosed atoll where the reef water has a longer residence time. Oceanic atoll and barrier reef lagoons, which are in the terminal stage of evolutionary history of oceanic volcanic islands, have the potential to release CO2 to the atmosphere.  相似文献   

6.
Coal-fired power stations in Collie, Western Australia emit 10 million tonnes of CO2 per year. This study assesses the potential opportunities of geological storage of CO2 both within the Collie Basin and the onshore part of the adjacent Southern Perth Basin of Western Australia within 50 km of Collie town site through a desktop evaluation of existing data. The aquifers and coal formations within both basins have been evaluated for their suitability for storage based on geological, geographical and environmental criteria related to storage capacity, injectivity, proximity to sources of CO2, location of other natural resources and containment security. The study has concluded that there is limited scope for large-scale storage of CO2 within the Collie Basin. In addition the potential for storage within coals of either basin is not a viable solution. This assessment is based on published criteria for CO2 storage in sedimentary basins and coal-bearing formations.  相似文献   

7.
Along with meteorological observations, complementary and systematic oceanographic observations of various physical, biological and chemical parameters have been made at Ocean Station P (OSP) (50°N, 145°W) since the early 1950s. These decadal time scale data have contributed to a better understanding of the physical, biological and chemical processes in the surface layer of the northeastern subarctic region of the Pacific Ocean. These data have demonstrated the importance of the North Pacific in the global carbon cycle and, in particular, the role of biological/chemical processes in the net exchange of CO2 across the air–sea interface. Although we do not fully comprehend how climatic variations influence marine communities or marine biogeochemistry, previous studies have provided some basic understanding of the mechanisms controlling the seasonal and inter-annual variations of biological and chemical parameters (such as phytoplankton, bacteria, nitrate/ammonium concentration) at OSP, and how they affect the carbon cycling in the subarctic North Pacific. In this study, we investigate how these mechanisms might alter the seasonal variations of these parameters at OSP under a 2XCO2 condition. We examine these influences using a new biological model calibrated by the climatological data from OSP. For the 2XCO2 simulation, the biological model is driven off line (i.e., no feedback to the ocean/atmospheric model components) by the climatology plus 2XCO2−1XCO2 outputs from a global surface ocean model and the Canadian GCM. Under the 2XCO2 condition, the upper layer ocean shows an increase in the entrainment rate at the bottom of the mixed layer for OSP during the late autumn and winter seasons, resulting in an increase in the f-ratio. Although there is an overall increase in the primary production (PP) by 3–18%, a decrease in the biomass of small phytoplankton and microzooplankton (due to mesozooplankton grazing) lowers the concentration of dissolved organic matter (DOM) by 4–25%. The model also predicts a significant increase in the concentrations of nitrate and ammonium, and in bacterial production during July and August. Doubling of the atmospheric CO2 from 330 to 660 ppm forces the marine pCO2 to increase by about 63%, much of which is driven by an increased flux of CO2 from the atmosphere to the oceans.  相似文献   

8.
Analysis of marine DOC using a dry combustion method   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
As part of a continuing effort to verify and improve measurements of marine dissolved organic carbon (DOC), we combusted dried sea salts + adhered organic matter to assay DOC concentrations in representative samples from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Combustions were performed overnight at 580 °C in sealed tubes, and oxidation of organic materials occurred via a novel mechanism, thermal sulfate reduction: 2H2SO4 + CH2O → 2SO2 + 3H2O + CO2Measured DOC concentrations ranged from 43 to 114 μM C, with highest values observed in inshore surface samples from Woods Hole Harbor, and lowest values observed in twelve deep offshore Atlantic and Pacific waters. Stable carbon isotope values determined for all samples were near − 22%., consistent with a predominantly marine phytoplankton origin for DOC. A seasonal study in Woods Hole Harbor showed no significant temporal trend in nearshore DOC concentrations. Problems associated with sample storage and contamination during drying steps prevented highly precise (± 1 μM) DOC concentration determinations; however, an improved drying and measurement system is outlined (Appendix A) for possible future dry-combustion studies of DOC concentrations.  相似文献   

9.
GSWA Harvey 1 was drilled as part of the South West CO2 Geosequestration Hub carbon capture and storage project (South West Hub) to evaluate storage volume, injectivity potential and carbon dioxide retention capacity in the south-western Perth Basin. Six cored intervals from the Triassic Lesueur Sandstone contain nine lithofacies consistent with fluvial depositional environments: the lower Wonnerup Member is dominated by fluvial lithofacies consisting of stacked beds of porous, permeable sandstone deposited as high-energy fill and barforms, with rare finer-grained swampy/overbank deposits. The overlying Yalgorup Member contains mainly floodplain palaeosols with low- to moderate-energy barforms. The high- to moderate-energy fluvial facies typically have a low gamma response and contain clean, medium to very coarse-grained quartz-dominated sandstones. Other clastic components include K-feldspar (8–25%) with trace muscovite, garnet and zircon, and interstitial diagenetic kaolinite (up to 15%) and Fe-rich chlorite (up to 13%). The low-energy facies contain variably interbedded mudstone and thin, moderate to well sorted fine-grained sandstone, typically with a high gamma response, and are consistent with deposition under swampy, overbank and palaeosol conditions. These facies have significantly higher proportions of mica and diagenetic clays, including smectite (up to 8%) and illite (up to 10%), and detrital plagioclase (up to 21%) and trace carbonate bioclasts. High porosity and permeability in the cored intervals of the Wonnerup Member indicate good reservoir characteristics in terms of storage capacity and injectivity at depths relevant to CO2 injection (>1500 m). High porosity and extremely variable permeability values in the Yalgorup Member were measured. The variation is due to permeable vertical sandstone features in low permeability sandy mudstone and indicate limited sealing potential, although the spatial connectivity of the vertical features cannot be resolved from the available core. A preliminary assessment of the area as a CCS site seems favourable; however, the project is only in the early stages of its characterization and far more regional and site-specific data are needed to evaluate how injected CO2 may behave in the subsurface.  相似文献   

10.
The effects of low-pH, high-pCO2 conditions on deep-sea organisms were examined during four deep-sea CO2 release experiments simulating deep-ocean C sequestration by the direct injection of CO2 into the deep sea. We examined the survival of common deep-sea, benthic organisms (microbes; macrofauna, dominated by Polychaeta, Nematoda, Crustacea, Mollusca; megafauna, Echinodermata, Mollusca, Pisces) exposed to low-pH waters emanating as a dissolution plume from pools of liquid carbon dioxide released on the seabed during four abyssal CO2-release experiments. Microbial abundance in deep-sea sediments was unchanged in one experiment, but increased under environmental hypercapnia during another, where the microbial assemblage may have benefited indirectly from the negative impact of low-pH conditions on other taxa. Lower abyssal metazoans exhibited low survival rates near CO2 pools. No urchins or holothurians survived during 30–42 days of exposure to episodic, but severe environmental hypercapnia during one experiment (E1; pH reduced by as much as ca. 1.4 units). These large pH reductions also caused 75% mortality for the deep-sea amphipod, Haploops lodo, near CO2 pools. Survival under smaller pH reductions (ΔpH<0.4 units) in other experiments (E2, E3, E5) was higher for all taxa, including echinoderms. Gastropods, cephalopods, and fish were more tolerant than most other taxa. The gastropod Retimohnia sp. and octopus Benthoctopus sp. survived exposure to pH reductions that episodically reached −0.3 pH units. Ninety percent of abyssal zoarcids (Pachycara bulbiceps) survived exposure to pH changes reaching ca. −0.3 pH units during 30–42 day-long experiments.  相似文献   

11.
The effects of marine photosynthesis and calcification on the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in seawater (P CO 2) are examined in the light of recent studies and using original model calculations. The ratio of organic carbon to inorganic carbon production (R OI) determines whether an ecosystem is a net sink or source for atmospheric CO2. TheP CO 2 maintains its initial value when the photosynthetic rate is approximately 0.6 times the calcification rate under normal sea surface condition. In case of higherR OI, theP CO 2 decreases and seawater can absorb atmospheric CO2. The ratio of organic carbon to inorganic carbon production can be used as a potential indicator of sink-source behavior in aquatic photo-calcifying systems.  相似文献   

12.
As the first offshore marine protected area (MPA) designated in the United Kingdom (UK), the Darwin Mounds area of cold-water coral provides a unique opportunity for examining MPA governance in offshore waters, i.e. beyond the territorial sea (12 nautical miles (nm)) but within Exclusive Economic or Fishing Zones (EEZs or EFZs, out to 200 nm). Whilst the Darwin Mounds Special Area of Conservation (SAC) represents a unique case study for offshore marine conservation, both in terms of circumstances and legal precedence, it also provides lessons for future MPA designations in offshore waters. As Member States of the European Union embark on Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) throughout their EEZs/EFZs, understanding the governance framework and potential opportunities and challenges in the offshore zone will become increasingly important for achieving marine conservation objectives in the face of competing economic interests and overlapping jurisdictions.  相似文献   

13.
Effects of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Enrichment on Marine Phytoplankton   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Rising atmospheric CO2 and deliberate CO2 sequestration in the ocean change seawater carbonate chemistry in a similar way, lowering seawater pH, carbonate ion concentration and carbonate saturation state and increasing dissolved CO2 concentration. These changes affect marine plankton in various ways. On the organismal level, a moderate increase in CO2 facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of some phytoplankton groups. It also enhances the release of dissolved carbohydrates, most notably during the decline of nutrient-limited phytoplankton blooms. A decrease in the carbonate saturation state represses biogenic calcification of the predominant marine calcifying organisms, foraminifera and coccolithophorids. On the ecosystem level these responses influence phytoplankton species composition and succession, favouring algal species which predominantly rely on CO2 utilization. Increased phytoplankton exudation promotes particle aggregation and marine snow formation, enhancing the vertical flux of biogenic material. A decrease in calcification may affect the competitive advantage of calcifying organisms, with possible impacts on their distribution and abundance. On the biogeochemical level, biological responses to CO2 enrichment and the related changes in carbonate chemistry can strongly alter the cycling of carbon and other bio-active elements in the ocean. Both decreasing calcification and enhanced carbon overproduction due to release of extracellular carbohydrates have the potential to increase the CO2 storage capacity of the ocean. Although the significance of such biological responses to CO2 enrichment becomes increasingly evident, our ability to make reliable predictions of their future developments and to quantify their potential ecological and biogeochemical impacts is still in its infancy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

14.
Changes from winter (July) to summer (February) in mixed layer carbon tracers and nutrients measured in the sub-Antarctic zone (SAZ), south of Australia, were used to derive a seasonal carbon budget. The region showed a strong winter to summer decrease in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC;  45 µmol/kg) and fugacity of carbon dioxide (fCO2;  25 µatm), and an increase in stable carbon isotopic composition of DIC (δ13CDIC;  0.5‰), based on data collected between November 1997 and July 1999.The observed mixed layer changes are due to a combination of ocean mixing, air–sea exchange of CO2, and biological carbon production and export. After correction for mixing, we find that DIC decreases by up to 42 ± 3 µmol/kg from winter (July) to summer (February), with δ13CDIC enriched by up to 0.45 ± 0.05‰ for the same period. The enrichment of δ13CDIC between winter and summer is due to the preferential uptake of 12CO2 by marine phytoplankton during photosynthesis. Biological processes dominate the seasonal carbon budget (≈ 80%), while air–sea exchange of CO2 (≈ 10%) and mixing (≈ 10%) have smaller effects. We found the seasonal amplitude of fCO2 to be about half that of a study undertaken during 1991–1995 [Metzl, N., Tilbrook, B. and Poisson, A., 1999. The annual fCO2 cycle and the air–sea CO2 flux in the sub-Antarctic Ocean. Tellus Series B—Chemical and Physical Meteorology, 51(4): 849–861.] for the same region, indicating that SAZ may undergo significant inter-annual variations in surface fCO2. The seasonal DIC depletion implies a minimum biological carbon export of 3400 mmol C/ m2 from July to February. A comparison with nutrient changes indicates that organic carbon export occurs close to Redfield values (ΔP:ΔN:ΔC = 1:16:119). Extrapolating our estimates to the circumpolar sub-Antarctic Ocean implies a minimum organic carbon export of 0.65 GtC from the July to February period, about 5–7% of estimates of global export flux. Our estimate for biological carbon export is an order of magnitude greater than anthropogenic CO2 uptake in the same region and suggests that changes in biological export in the region may have large implications for future CO2 uptake by the ocean.  相似文献   

15.
The integrity of the caprock of a storage formation is the most crucial parameter for the long-term performance of a geological CO2 storage site. The Sleipner area in the Southern Viking Graben hosts the first and longest operating industrial scale CO2 storage project, where CO2 is injected in a saline aquifer of the Utsira Formation. Time-lapse seismic monitoring shows neither that CO2 has left the Utsira Formation nor indications for fracturing of the caprock by the CO2 injection activity, which is in agreement with previous numerical simulations. However, large chimney structures as close as 7 km from the injection point indicate that the caprock has been breached in the geological past, which may raise questions about the integrity of the caprock above the Sleipner CO2 storage site. Here, we present seismically constrained numerical fluid flow simulations that evaluate the influence of chimney structures on the long-term performance of the CO2 storage operation at Sleipner. The simulation could reproduce the spreading of the Sleipner CO2 plume, which is controlled by the anisotropic permeability field of the Utsira Formation and the regional dip of the formation top. We have performed long-term plume evolution simulations, which show that the injected CO2 will not reach the existing chimney structures assuming a realistic injection duration of 30 years. Our simulations indicate that an unrealistically long injection period between 92 and 140 years would be required for the CO2 to reach the existing chimney structures. In this case, a comparably low chimney permeability of 10 mD may be sufficient to facilitate CO2 migration from the storage formation to the seafloor, once the CO2 has reached a chimney structure. However, the simulations indicate that it is very unlikely that the CO2 may migrate along existing chimney structures at Sleipner. Our results highlight that the reconstruction of palaeo fluid flow systems and the identification of focused fluid conduits should be considered in the assessment of CO2 storage sites.  相似文献   

16.
本实验分别针对3株低温藻株:微拟球藻Nannochloropsis sp.ZL-12、四爿藻Tetraselmis chui ZL-33和小球藻Chlorellasp.ZL-45,3株中温藻株:球等鞭金藻Isochrysis galbana CCMM5001、等鞭金藻Isochrysis sp.CCMM5002和微拟球藻Nannochloropsis sp.CCMM7001,3株高温藻株:微拟球藻Nannochloropsis sp.JN1、绿色巴夫藻Pavlova viridis JN2和海洋小球藻Chlorellasp.JN3,研究了在通入0.03%(空气)、5%、10%3个CO2浓度梯度条件下的生长特性,同时考察了其总酯及中性脂的累积情况。结果显示,富碳培养有利于不同温度条件下9株藻株的生长,除微拟球藻Nannochloropsis sp.CCMM7001最适生长的CO2浓度为5%外,其余8株藻株最适生长的CO2浓度均为10%。在低温和高温条件下,6株海洋富油微藻在通入10%CO2时具有最大生物量产率,在中温条件下球等鞭金藻和等鞭金藻在通入10%CO2时获得最大生物量产率,而微拟球藻在通入5%时获得最大生物量产率,随着CO2浓度的增加,9株藻株的总脂含量和中性脂含量有明显提高。低温和中温藻株的总脂含量高于高温藻株的总脂含量,从中性脂的累积规律来看,9株藻株均在平台期的累积达到最大值,GC-MS分析结果表明,9株微藻适合制备生物柴油的C14~C18系脂肪酸相对含量在不同CO2条件下基本保持不变,维持在90%左右。实验结果显示,所研究的藻株作为富油高固碳优良藻株,具备用于海洋生物质能耦合CO2减排开发的潜力。  相似文献   

17.
Data concerning the effects of high CO2 concentrations on marine organisms are essential for both predicting future impacts of the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and assessing the effects of deep-sea CO2sequestration. Here we review our recent studies evaluating the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations in seawater on the mortality and egg production of the marine planktonic copepod, Acartia steueri, and on the fertilization rate and larval morphology of sea urchin embryos, Hemicentrotus pulcherrimus and Echinometra mathaei. Under conditions of +10,000 ppm CO2 in seawater (pH 6.8), the egg production rates of copepods decreased significantly. The survival rates of adult copepods were not affected when reared under increased CO2 for 8 days, however longer exposure times could have revealed toxic effects of elevated CO2 concentrations. The fertilization rate of sea urchin eggs of both species decreased with increasing CO2 concentration. Furthermore, the size of pluteus larvae decreased with increasing CO2 concentration and malformed skeletogenesis was observed in both larvae. This suggests that calcification is affected by elevated CO2 in the seawater. From these results, we conclude that increased CO2 concentration in seawater will chronically affect several marine organisms and we discuss the effects of increased CO2 on the marine carbon cycle and marine ecosystem. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

18.
The present study describes the temporal variability of the water fCO2 as well as the different driving forces controlling this variability, on time scales from daily to seasonal, in the Rio San Pedro, a tidal creek located in a salt marsh area in the Bay of Cadiz (SW Iberian Peninsula). This shallow tidal creek system is affected by effluents of organic matter and nutrients from the surrounding marine fish farms. Continuous pCO2, salinity and temperature were recorded for four periods of approximately one month, between February and September in 2004.Major processes controlling the CO2 variability are related to three different time scales. Daily variations in fCO2 are controlled by tidal advection and mixing of the water from within the creek and the seawater that enters from the Bay of Cadiz. Significant cyclical variations of the fCO2 have been observed with the maximum values occurring at low tide. On a fortnightly time scale, the amplitude of the daily variability of fCO2 is modulated by the variations in the residence time of the water within the creek, which are related to the spring–neap tide sequence.On a third time scale, high seasonal variability is observed for the temperature, salinity and fCO2. Maximum and minimum values for fCO2 were 380 µatm and 3760 µatm for February and July respectively. Data suggest that seasonal variability is related to the seasonal variability in discharges from the fish farm and to the increase with temperature of organic matter respiratory processes in the tidal creek. The fCO2 values observed are in the same range as several highly polluted European estuaries or waters surrounding mangrove forests. From the air–water CO2 flux computed, it can be concluded that the Rio San Pedro acts as a source of CO2 to the atmosphere throughout the year, with the summer accounting for the higher average monthly flux.  相似文献   

19.
The ‘International Intercomparison Exercise of fCO2 Systems’ was carried out in 1996 during the R/V Meteor Cruise 36/1 from Bermuda/UK to Gran Canaria/Spain. Nine groups from six countries (Australia, Denmark, France, Germany, Japan, USA) participated in this exercise, bringing together 15 participants with seven underway fugacity of carbon dioxide (fCO2) systems, one discrete fCO2 system, and two underway pH systems, as well as systems for discrete measurement of total alkalinity and total dissolved inorganic carbon. Here, we compare surface seawater fCO2 measured synchronously by all participating instruments. A common infrastructure (seawater and calibration gas supply), different quality checks (performance of calibration procedures for CO2, temperature measurements) and a common procedure for calculation of final fCO2 were provided to reduce the largest possible amount of controllable sources of error. The results show that under such conditions underway measurements of the fCO2 in surface seawater and overlying air can be made to a high degree of agreement (±1 μatm) with a variety of possible equilibrator and system designs. Also, discrete fCO2 measurements can be made in good agreement (±3 μatm) with underway fCO2 data sets. However, even well-designed systems, which are operated without any obvious sign of malfunction, can show significant differences of the order of 10 μatm. Based on our results, no “best choice” for the type of the equilibrator nor specifics on its dimensions and flow rates of seawater and air can be made in regard to the achievable accuracy of the fCO2 system. Measurements of equilibrator temperature do not seem to be made with the required accuracy resulting in significant errors in fCO2 results. Calculation of fCO2 from high-quality total dissolved inorganic carbon (CT) and total alkalinity (AT) measurements does not yield results comparable in accuracy and precision to fCO2 measurements.  相似文献   

20.
Projected growth in the international shipping industry is set to outstrip CO2 reductions arising from incremental improvements to technology and operations currently being planned and implemented. Using original scenarios, this paper demonstrates for the first time that it is possible for a nation's shipping to make a fair contribution to meeting global climate change commitments, but that this requires transformation of the sector. The scale and nature of technology change varies depending on the level of demand and how this is satisfied. The scenarios show that to develop successful marine mitigation policy, it is essential to consider the interdependencies between ship speed, level and pattern of demand for services, and the extent and rate of innovation in propulsion technology. Across the scenarios, it is difficult to foresee how deep decarbonisation can be achieved without an immediate, fleet-wide speed reduction; and a land-based energy-system transition strongly influences shipping demand, which in turn, influences the extent of required low-carbon propulsion technology change. Setting the industry on a 2 °C heading requires multifaceted and near-term changes in the shipping sector, but these are unlikely to materialise without a major shift by stakeholders to realise new and innovative deep decarbonisation policies in the coming decade.  相似文献   

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