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1.
This study delineates the formation of a warm pool (>34°C) of air to the west (downwind) of the active volcano of the Barren Island during October–November 2005. Barren Island is located in the Sumatra–Andaman region, about 135 km east of Port Blair, and lies within the Burma microplate, the southern tip of which experienced a submarine earthquake (M w 9.3) causing a tsunami in December 2004. Barren Island is the only volcano, which has shown sustained eruptive activity since shortly after the Great Sumatran Earthquake of December 2004. Our observations require further corroboration to relate how submarine earthquakes activate volcanoes and how far these thermal emissions influence climate changes. Because it links global warming and climate changes to the frequent emissions from a volcano activated by submarine earthquakes, this case study is of special interest to the earth-ocean-atmosphere sciences community.  相似文献   

2.
Abstract

The characterization of earthquake sources in the Gulf of Alaska and the relative significance of earthquake sources for establishing seismic design inputs at a typical site for engineering purposes are discussed. Earthquake sources in the complex tectonic environment can be divided into two groups: (a) a subduction zone that underlies the entire region (maximum magnitude M = 8.5); and (b) individual thrust and strike‐slip faults associated with the plate motions (maximum magnitude M = 6 to 7.5). The sources of either group and individual earthquake events can be represented as planar surfaces for consistency with the physical process and a mathematically tractable computational scheme.

Although the area is very active seismically, the degree of activity of individual sources varies significantly. Therefore, even for sources with the same maximum earthquakes, different magnitudes may apply for a selected design return period. The area is considered to be a “seismic gap.”; No great earthquakes have occurred in nearly 80 years. Estimates based on a temporally varying seismic function such as the semi‐Markov model indicate that the probability of occurrence of a great earthquake in the near future is significantly higher than the average probability inferred from a statistical analysis of historical seismicity data of the entire region.

Separate attenuation relationships should be used for calculating ground motions due to earthquakes on the dipping subduction zone in the northern portion of the gulf. The dominant earthquake source for almost the entire Gulf of Alaska region is the subduction zone that contributes over 80 percent of the seismic exposure at a typical site. The dominant magnitude range is Ms = 6.5 to 7.5. “Gap filling”; earthquakes (Ms = 7.5 to 8.25) contribute a little over a third of the seismic exposure at a typical site. Deterministic assessments of ground motion values using the maximum earthquake on the subduction zone at the closest distance yield values significantly higher than those calculated for even 500‐year return periods. Estimated 100‐year return period accelerations in the area range from 180 to 340 cm/sec2.  相似文献   

3.
The predictability of catastrophic earthquakes according to data on time variations in tidal response is discussed. We present the results of a harmonic analysis of (1) a one-year record of tide-gauge observations with the use of two long-term vertical seismometers at the MAJO station on Honshu Island near the epicenter of the M w = 9 catastrophic earthquake of March 11, 2011, and (2) a 0.5-year record of horizontal pendulum observations at the ERM station near Hokkaido Island from March 13, 2010, to March 12, 2011, and from April 26, 2010, to August 3, 2010, respectively. The relative changes in the tidal amplitudes are found to be about 3 and 4%. The identification of distinct prognostic attributes awaits much more representative spatiotemporal statistics. These results can be adequately and reliably interpreted by analyzing “background” variations in the tidal amplitudes at these stations and, in particular, their possible seasonal variations. This requires at least several years of observations.  相似文献   

4.
台湾岛1999年9月21日在南投发生7.6级地震前有出现地震条带现象,在2005年工作的基础上继续用地震条带方法对2004年12月台东海外7.0级地震、2006年12月高雄海外7.2级地震和2016年2月6日高雄6.7级地震前的地震图像进行分析发现,这3次地震前也存在ML5.5级以上地震条带现象,说明近年来台湾岛及邻近海域强地震前都有地震条带出现.对这些条带形成的原因进行分析后认为:EN向地震条带是受菲律宾板块挤压形成的,沿台湾岛东部海岸排列的地震条带是受台湾岛东部的地震断层影响形成的,沿琉球海沟方向排列的地震条带是受琉球海沟断裂带影响形成的.研究结果对台湾岛及邻近海域的地震预报具有参考意义.  相似文献   

5.
The tsunami which follows a strong local earthquake occurs within a few minutes of the origin time. This requires that any warning system for such local tsunamis be decentralized, as in the system used by the Japan Meterological Agency. Thus, decisions are being made by local officials rather than in a central office. This usually means that the level of training, the education, and the preparation is not as intense in such a local office as in a central office. Therefore, the decision making should be assisted by instrumentation that discriminates tsunamigenic earthquakes from non‐tsunamigenic earthquakes. This is not yet possible in real time; however, since only very large earthquakes (more than 6.5) generate significant tsunamis, an instrument to inform the local official of the tsunami prospects can be implemented.

An instrument for assisting the local decision maker has been developed. This instrument consists of an analog computer (an inverted pendulum having a period of 0.75 sec and damping about 0.3) and a digital computer (a hardwired signal‐recognition circuit), providing output to a display of status or alarm. The level of displacement (or velocity or acceleration) , the number of times that the threshold must be exceeded, and the time window within which the excedance must occur are all adjustable. Initial settings require about 0.06 g three times, not more than ten seconds apart. Battery back‐up and test circuitry are provided.

Since the operating instructions require that motion be felt before the instrument alarm be considered valid, great weight is given to assuring that the instrument will operate when required. The instru‐ment is always “ON,”; with the earthquake turning it “OFF”; thus, it is continually self‐testing.

Twelve units have been installed in police stations, fire stations, or similar locations around the State of Hawaii, which funded the system developed at Indiana University. This tsunami seismic trigger should be considered whenever the primary objective is to trigger an alarm rather than to record data; the emphasis in design and development has been on reminding the local official when there may be a tsunami hazard and not on recording research data.  相似文献   

6.
In the course of the ongoing since 1992 Global Test of the intermediate-term middle-range earthquake forecast/predictions by the algorithms M8 and MSc place and time of each of the mega-earthquakes of 27 February 2010 in Chile and 11 March 2011 in Japan were recognized as in state of increased probability of such events in advance their occurrences. In conjunction with a retrospective analysis of seismic activity preceding the first of a series of mega earthquakes of the 21st century, i.e., 26 December 2004 in the Indian Ocean, these evidences give grounds for assuming that the algorithms of proven validated effectiveness in magnitude ranges M7.5+ and M8.0+ can be applied to predict the mega-earthquakes as well.  相似文献   

7.
From 1987 to 2005, numbers of African penguins Spheniscus demersus breeding in South Africa's Western Cape Province increased by about 50%. Numbers decreased at the four northernmost colonies in the region: Lambert's Bay and the three colonies in Saldanha Bay, although at Jutten Island the decrease is inferred from an estimate for 1987, derived from interpolation. Numbers also decreased at Geyser Rock and Dyer Island on the South Coast. At five colonies between Saldanha Bay and Dyer Island there were large increases. At a sixth colony in that region, Seal Island, where Cape fur seals Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus limit breeding space, numbers remained stable. At two colonies that were initiated in the early 1980s, Robben Island and Boulders, increases were initially rapid (>20% per annum) and matched growth of the South African stock of sardine Sardinops sagax. Strong growth at Dassen and Vondeling islands, between Robben Island and Saldanha Bay, was observed from about 1996–2002, when there was a large increase in the biomass of pelagic fish off South Africa. Increases at colonies between Saldanha Bay and Boulders slowed after 2002, whereas the colony at Dyer Island stabilised at that time. In 2003, a new colony was initiated east of Dyer Island at De Hoop Nature Reserve. These latter trends followed an eastward shift in the distribution of sardine. Small penguin colonies may act as foci for growth in a period when the distribution of prey is changing. Hence, it is important that they be maintained, especially those that, if lost, would increase the isolation of regional populations. Some of the small colonies are less susceptible to oil spills than colonies in the proximity of harbours, and for that reason also are important.  相似文献   

8.
The Hyuga-nada region of southwest Japan, which is located off the east coast of Kyushu Island, may have the potential to generate great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough in the future. In this area, thrust earthquakes of M = 6.7–7.2 have occurred with recurrence intervals of approximately 30 years. In association with these earthquakes, possible local heterogeneities of plate coupling may be expected within 100 km from the coast in the Hyuga-nada region. We investigate numerical experiments to determine the spatial and temporal resolution of slip on the plate interface beneath the Hyuga-nada offshore region. For this purpose, we calculated synthetic displacement data from the result of numerical simulation conducted for the afterslip following an Mw 6.8 earthquake, for existing global positioning system stations on land and planned ocean floor seismic network stations. The spatial and temporal distribution of fault slip is then estimated using a Kalman filter-based inversion. The slip distribution estimated by using ocean floor stations demonstrates that the heterogeneity of plate coupling is resolved approximately within 50 km from the coastal area. This heterogeneity corresponds to the coseismic area of an Mw 6.8 earthquake with a radius of 10 km. Our study quantitatively evaluates the spatial resolution of aseismic slip in the Hyuga-nada region. Analysis based on continuous ocean floor data is useful for resolving the spatial variations of heterogeneities in plate couplings.  相似文献   

9.
The tectonic and seismological aspects of the Great Japan Earthquake, which occurred on March 11, 2011 (M w = 9.0), at the Pacific margin of the northeastern part of Honshu Island, are discussed. The structure and seismotectonic data, seismicity, and the reccurence rate of the great (M ≥ 7.6) earthquakes throughout history and in modern times are represented. It is shown that the reccurence rate of the great events is about 40 years, and that of megaearthquakes is 1000 years or more. A seismic gap of about 800 km in length is found in the region under study, located to the south of latitude 39° N and full of aftershocks to the megaearthquake of March 11, 2011. This event is probably connected with the deep thrust along the Benioff zone and its structural front (Oyashio nappe at the middle Pacific continental slope). The aftershock sequences of this megaearthquake and the Sumatra-Andaman (2004) megaearthquake are compared. It is found that several of their key characteristics (the number of aftershocks, the magnitude of the strongest aftershock, and the time of its occurrence) for 25 days are comparable for both cases with a significant difference in the energies of aftershock processes. A probable scenario for the origination of a repeated shock with M ∼ 8.0 in the Japan Trench is discussed.  相似文献   

10.
The great Japanese earthquake (GJE) of March 11, 2011, was a megaevent. The conditions under which such seismic catastrophes occurred are discussed. The regime of the aftershocks of this megaevent is compared with the data on the aftershock sequences which accompanied the Simushir earthquakes (2006 and 2007) and the Andaman earthquake (2004) and with the seismicity behavior in the generalized vicinity of a strong earthquake. The aftershock sequences of the abovementioned strong earthquakes are shown to represent the sets of trend changes in the postshock activity and specific outbursts of seismic activity. Activity outbursts are characterized not only by an increase in the number and energy of events, but also by a decrease in the recurrence plot slope (b value) and the average earthquake depth. Some such outbursts correspond to the occurrence of strong repeated shocks. A possible mechanism for outbursts of seismic activity is proposed. The possibility of a stronger repeated shock in the vicinity of the megaearthquake of March 11, 2011, is discussed.  相似文献   

11.
We perform the numerical analysis of the process of propagation of long waves in the northwest part of the Black Sea and consider ten possible zones of the seismic generation of tsunamis. The numerical analysis is performed on a grid with steps of 500 m. It is shown that the location of the tsunami source significantly affects the distribution of the heights of waves along the coast. As a rule, the most intense waves are formed in the closest part of the coast. The earthquakes in the South-Coast seismic zone do not lead to the formation of tsunamis in the west part of the sea. Only strong earthquakes in the northwest part of the sea can be responsible for noticeable oscillations of the Black-Sea level. The period of tsunamis near Odessa is close to 1 h and depends on the magnitude of the earthquake. In the region of Sevastopol, this period is 2--3 times smaller. In the major part of the coastal points, the extreme elevations and lowerings of the sea level do not exceed (in modulus) the initial displacements of the sea surface at the source of tsunamis. An intensification of waves emitted from the zones of generation located in the deeper part of the investigated region was observed for some parts of the Romanian coast and the west coast of Crimea. As the magnitude of the earthquake increases, the intensification of waves near the coast becomes more pronounced.  相似文献   

12.
2016年全球地震海啸监测预警与数值模拟研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
回顾了国家海洋环境预报中心(国家海洋局海啸预警中心)2016年全球地震海啸监测预警的总体状况, 并基于震源生成模型和海啸传播数值模型的计算结果详细介绍了几次主要海啸事件及其影响特性。2016年全年国家海洋环境预报中心总共对全球6.5级(中国近海5.5级)以上海底地震响应了45次,发布海啸信息81期, 没有发生对我国有明显影响的海啸。结合精细化的数值模拟结果和浮标监测数据,重点介绍了苏门达腊7.8级地震海啸、厄瓜多尔7.8级地震海啸、新西兰7.1级和7.8级地震海啸, 以及所罗门7.8级地震海啸的波动特征和传播规律, 模拟结果与实测海啸波符合较好。针对厄瓜多尔7.8级地震海啸事件, 本文比较分析了均匀断层模型和多源有限断层模型对模拟结果的影响; 针对新西兰7.1级地震海啸, 探讨了色散效应对海啸波在大水深、远距离传播过程的影响规律。  相似文献   

13.
The earthquake that occurred on May 24, 2013, in the basin of the Sea of Okhotsk with a magnitude of 8.3 was the strongest in this region. We have modeled a possible tsunami caused by such an earthquake. The simulations confirm that the wave heights were sufficiently small because the earthquake epicenter depth was 640 km. We analyze the oscillations of the DART buoys in the vicinity of the earthquake source and show that they were not associated with the tsunami waves. Analysis of the available pressure gauge records at different points of the Sea of Okhotsk show that only in one case (Iturup Island) can the observed oscillations of the sea level with a height of approximately 4 cm be classified as tsunami waves.  相似文献   

14.
The “seismic silence” period in the seismic gap in the region of the Komandor Islands (hereinafter, the Komandor seismic gap) is close to the duration of the maximal recurrence interval for the strongest earthquakes of the Aleutian Islands. This indicates the possibility of a strong earthquake occurring here in the nearest time. In the present work, the results of simulation for a tsunami from such an earthquake are presented. The scheme successfully used by the authors for the nearest analog—the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake—is applied. The magnitude of the supposed earthquake is assumed to be 9.0; the tsunamigenic source is about 650 km long and consists of 9 blocks. The parameters of the tsunami propagation in the Pacific Ocean and the characteristics of the waves on the coasts are computed for several possible scenarios of blocks’ motion. The spectral analysis of the obtained wave characteristics is made and the effects of the wave front interference are found. Simulation has shown that the wave heights at some coastal sites can reach 9 m and, thus, may cause considerable destruction and deaths.  相似文献   

15.
丁学仁  吴长江 《台湾海峡》1997,16(3):339-347
本文根据１９９４年９月１６日台湾海峡７．３级强震序列的空间活动图象变化特征，结合历史地震资料，比较分析了台湾海峡区域史今地震活动的总体演变过程，表明该区强震发生与周边地区的台湾，日本及菲律宾大地地震，在时间进程，强度变化和地域分布关系上存在关地球物理场变化的影响。  相似文献   

16.
The results of temperature monitoring in the 300-m kun-1 well (Kunashir Island) in 2011–2015 are considered. Quasi-periodic temperature variations with an amplitude of up to 0.3°C and a variation period of 14–26 h were added from November 2011 to the previously observed temperature variations caused by tidal deformations, free thermal convection, and deformation processes associated with the preparation and occurrence of tectonic earthquakes. Five cycles of such variations lasting from 2 to 6 months have been recorded. Each cycle was initiated by an earthquake with magnitude M > 2.5log(R), where R is the epicentral distance (km). According to their characteristics, the variations are unique and have not been described previously. Assumptions have been made about the possible connection of the registered variations with the inertial currents of the ocean or with hydrothermal processes in the Earth’s subsurface. The phenomenon discovered requires further study not only as an object of fundamental science, but also as a feature of an earlier unknown type of geodynamic activity that can be a significant threat to the regional population.  相似文献   

17.
At present, the problem of predicting tsunamis with source earthquakes near the shoreline remains practically unresolved. It is shown that, in the Pacific region, 87% of tsunamigenous earthquake epicenters are located closer than 100 km to the shoreline and 67% are closer than 50 km. For a more detailed analysis, the area of the Pacific Ocean was divided into ten subregions: Kamchatka, the Kuril Islands, Japan, Indonesia, Australia and Oceania, South and Central America, Alaska, and the Aleutian Islands. Each subregion was analyzed individually. All the earthquakes from 1950 to 2003 with Ms >= 6.0 causing tsunamis with intensities I > 0 were processed. The ITDB/PAC 2004 database was used as the data source. For each subregion, mean and minimal travel times were calculated. The minimal travel times for all the regions except for a single one are less than 10 min. It is shown that, in the near earthquake zone, no tsunami alert based sea-level gauge data is possible. One probable solution could be based on detecting hydroacoustic signals that precede strong earthquakes in the near-shore zone.  相似文献   

18.
This paper addresses inhomogeneities in the short-period S-wave attenuation field in the lithosphere beneath Altai. A technique based on the analysis of the amplitude ratios of Sn and Pn waves is used. High S-wave attenuation areas are identified in the West Altai, which are related to the source zones of recent large earthquakes, viz., the 1990 Zaisan earthquake and the 2003 Chuya earthquake. Associated with the Chuya earthquake, a large ringlike seismogenic structure had been formed since 1976. It is also found that ringlike seismogenic structures are confined to high S-wave attenuation areas unrelated to large historical earthquakes. It is supposed that processes paving the way for strong earthquakes are taking place in these areas. The magnitudes of probable earthquakes are estimated using the earlier derived correlation dependences of the sizes of ringlike seismogenic structures and the threshold values of magnitudes on the energy of principal earthquakes with prevailing focal mechanisms taken into consideration. The sources of some earthquakes are likely to occur near to the planned gas pipeline route from Western Siberia to China, which should be taken into account. The relationship of anomalies in the S-wave attenuation field and the ringlike seismogenic structures to a high content of deep-seated fluids in the lithosphere is discussed.  相似文献   

19.
A number of seismoacoustic T-wave events were observed between January 2003 and January 2004 by broadband ocean-bottom seismometers installed on the French Polynesia seafloor at depths of 4,000?C5,000?m, well below the conjugate depth of the SOFAR channel. Using T-wave arrival times, we located 89 T-wave events along the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge. Among these, 63 events were not detected by land-based seismic observations of the United States Geological Survey (USGS), which was nearly twice the number of earthquakes reported by the USGS in the area during the observation period. We used a simple method to estimate earthquake magnitude from T-wave energy. The magnitudes of the events unidentified by the USGS ranged from 2.3 to 5.5, whereas magnitudes of the earthquakes reported by the USGS ranged from 4.1 to 6.2. Our study suggests that T-wave observations with abyssal ocean-bottom seismometers can improve the detection of small earthquakes and help our understanding of the seismotectonics of remote oceanic areas.  相似文献   

20.
P-waves recorded on Ponape Island at the northern end of the Ontong Java plateau have been investigated. Different modes of propagation in the distance range 12° to 17° Δ between paths from Melanesian earthquakes across the Ontong Java plateau and paths from Mariana earthquakes across the eastern Mariana basin suggest that the mantle underlying the regions is not homogeneous. Travel-times of P-waves beneath the Ontong Java plateau are slower than for paths beneath the east Mariana basin. The frequency content of the first-arriving P-waves is lower for paths across the Ontong Java plateau than for the east Mariana basin. The disparate crustal thicknesses of the Ontong Java plateau and east Mariana basin may influence the relative amplitude of oceanic Pn, with smaller amplitudes corresponding to a thicker crust. Pn-P differential times for the Ontong Java plateau show a general decrease with the depth of earthquake focus but no comparable trend is seen in the Mariana data, possibly because of the scatter. The observation of high-frequency oceanic Pn propagation across the Ontong Java Plateau is suggestive that the plateau is not of continental origin.  相似文献   

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