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1.
Major earthquakes occurred in the region of the Central Kuril Islands on November 15, 2006 (M w = 8.3) and January 13, 2007 (M w = 8.1). These earthquakes generated strong tsunamis recorded throughout the entire Pacific Ocean. The first was the strongest trans-Pacific tsunami of the past 42 years (since the Alaska tsunami in 1964). The high probability of a strong earthquake (M w ≥ 8.5) and associated destructive tsunami occurring in this region was predicted earlier. The most probable earthquake source region was investigated and possible scenarios for the tsunami generation were modeled. Investigations of the events that occurred on November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007, enabled us to estimate the validity of the forecast and compare the parameters of the forecasted and observed earthquakes and tsunamis. In this paper, we discuss the concept of “seismic gaps,” which formed the basis for the forecast of these events, and put forward further assumptions about the expected seismic activity in the region. We investigate the efficiency of the tsunami warning services and estimate the statistical parameters for the observed tsunami waves that struck the Far Eastern coast of Russia and Northern Japan. The propagation and transformation of the 2006 and 2007 tsunamis are studied using numerical hydrodynamic modeling. The spatial characteristics of the two events are compared.  相似文献   

2.
A 2D variant of the inversion method for determining velocities within the Benioff zone of Kamchatka is developed with respect to the time of seismic wave travel from the foci group to Shipunskii station located in the region where the zone outcrops at the ocean bottom. The method is based on the idea of seismic tomography on the relationship between travel time discrepancies along the focus–station path and the value of seismic slowness, which is inverse to the velocity and corresponds to the gradient of the time field or the derivative of a hodograph with respect to the distance dt/dl. From this viewpoint, the field of discrepancies observed is the difference between the experimental and theoretical values of slowness. Its averaging with respect to depth and epicentral distance in 50 × 50 km rectangular windows and subsequent inversion make it possible to obtain a discrete velocity field using the GoldenSoftware Surfer program. Resmoothing with the same software leads to a variant of continuous velocity distribution = in the axial plane of the Benioff zone. The described procedure was used to calculate the velocities in this zone of the southern Kuril Islands and southern and central Kamchatka. The principal result in the latter case is identification of a sharp jump in the velocities of body waves in the upper mantle (up to 1.3 km/s for P-waves and up to 0.8 km/s for S-waves) beneath the Kronotskii Peninsula in the 7 years before the catastrophic Kronotskii earthquake that occurred in 1997 (M = 7.9) with an upthrow focal mechanism. This jump reflects the concentration of stresses in the epicentral zone of the earthquake. This result is important for medium-term forecasting of strong earthquakes.  相似文献   

3.
This paper addresses inhomogeneities in the short-period S-wave attenuation field in the lithosphere beneath Altai. A technique based on the analysis of the amplitude ratios of Sn and Pn waves is used. High S-wave attenuation areas are identified in the West Altai, which are related to the source zones of recent large earthquakes, viz., the 1990 Zaisan earthquake and the 2003 Chuya earthquake. Associated with the Chuya earthquake, a large ringlike seismogenic structure had been formed since 1976. It is also found that ringlike seismogenic structures are confined to high S-wave attenuation areas unrelated to large historical earthquakes. It is supposed that processes paving the way for strong earthquakes are taking place in these areas. The magnitudes of probable earthquakes are estimated using the earlier derived correlation dependences of the sizes of ringlike seismogenic structures and the threshold values of magnitudes on the energy of principal earthquakes with prevailing focal mechanisms taken into consideration. The sources of some earthquakes are likely to occur near to the planned gas pipeline route from Western Siberia to China, which should be taken into account. The relationship of anomalies in the S-wave attenuation field and the ringlike seismogenic structures to a high content of deep-seated fluids in the lithosphere is discussed.  相似文献   

4.
Tsunamis associated with the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake seriously disrupted the shallow marine ecosystem along a 2000 km stretch of the Pacific coast of Japan. The effects of the 2011 tsunamis on the soft-bottom benthic community have been relatively well studied in the intertidal zone, whereas tsunami effects on the subtidal benthos remain poorly understood. Here, we investigated populations of the world’s largest spoon worm Ikeda taenioides (Annelida: Echiura: Ikedidae) in subtidal zone of Funakoshi Bay, Tohoku District, northeastern Japan. Subtidal scuba-diving surveys at two sites in the bay showed extremely long proboscises frequently extending from small holes in the sandy seafloor shortly before and soon after the tsunami disturbances. Based on morphological and molecular identification, the proboscises were revealed to be parts of I. taenioides. On 30 November 2011, 265 days after the tsunami event, many large-sized individuals with >1 m long proboscises were observed; these individuals were probably not derived from post-tsunami larval recruitment but more likely survived the tsunami disturbances. This is surprising because other sympatric megabenthos (e.g. spatangoid echinoids and venerid bivalves) and seagrass beds were almost completely destroyed (although they later recovered) by the tsunamis in this bay. The burrows of I. taenioides are known to be very deep (70–90 cm), which may have sheltered them from the impacts of the tsunamis. Our observations suggest that the effects of the 2011 tsunamis on benthos in soft sediments may differ depending on their burrowing depth.  相似文献   

5.
Some characteristics of seismicity in Southern California are studied. It is found that ring-shaped seismicity structures with threshold magnitudes Mth of 4.1, 4.1, and 3.8 formed prior to three large (M w > 7.0) earthquakes in 1992, 1999, and 2010, respectively. The sizes of these structures are several times smaller than for intracontinental strike-slip events with similar magnitudes. Two ring-shaped structures are identified in areas east of the city of Los Angeles, where relatively large earthquakes have not occurred for at least 150 years. The magnitudes of large events which can occur in the areas of these structures are estimated on the basis of the previously obtained correlation dependence of ring sizes on magnitudes of the strike-slip earthquakes. Large events with magnitudes of M w = 6.9 ± 0.2 and M w = 8.6 ± 0.2 can occur in the area to the east of the city of Los Angeles and in the rupture zone of the 1857 great Fort Tejon earthquake, respectively. We believe that ring-structure formation, similarly to the other regions, is connected with deep-seated fluid migration.  相似文献   

6.
We perform the numerical analysis of the process of propagation of long waves in the northwest part of the Black Sea and consider ten possible zones of the seismic generation of tsunamis. The numerical analysis is performed on a grid with steps of 500 m. It is shown that the location of the tsunami source significantly affects the distribution of the heights of waves along the coast. As a rule, the most intense waves are formed in the closest part of the coast. The earthquakes in the South-Coast seismic zone do not lead to the formation of tsunamis in the west part of the sea. Only strong earthquakes in the northwest part of the sea can be responsible for noticeable oscillations of the Black-Sea level. The period of tsunamis near Odessa is close to 1 h and depends on the magnitude of the earthquake. In the region of Sevastopol, this period is 2--3 times smaller. In the major part of the coastal points, the extreme elevations and lowerings of the sea level do not exceed (in modulus) the initial displacements of the sea surface at the source of tsunamis. An intensification of waves emitted from the zones of generation located in the deeper part of the investigated region was observed for some parts of the Romanian coast and the west coast of Crimea. As the magnitude of the earthquake increases, the intensification of waves near the coast becomes more pronounced.  相似文献   

7.
本文描述了采自南麂列岛小柴屿岩相潮间带的一海洋底栖硅藻新种，南麂侧链藻（Pleurosira nanjiensis sp.nov.）。本研究使用光学显微镜和扫描电子显微镜对该种进行了形态学观察，并基于SSU rRNA和rbcL基因重建了其系统发育关系。南麂侧链藻具有壳面橄榄形、椭圆形或圆形，壳面隆起，单眼突出于壳表面，2–3个唇状突（rimportulae），放射排列的线纹等特征，区别于其他侧链藻。  相似文献   

8.
Abstract

In the recent seismological literature, several articles appeared which suggested that major earthquakes are likely to occur in the near future, in the various seismic gaps around the rim of the Pacific Basin. Although the direct effects of these earthquakes may be confined to local areas, the tsunamis that will generate are expected to travel Pacific Ocean wide and cause great destruction even at far off places around the Pacific Ocean. Here, the various approaches to delineating the tsunami hazard are discussed and some suggestions are made.  相似文献   

9.
The tsunami warning system in the Russian Far East employs the medium-period magnitude MS (BB) by Vaniek–Soloviev. However, its use may lead to inadequacies and underestimates for the tsunamigenic potential of an earthquake. Specifically, this can happen in the case of a so-called tsunami–earthquake. This kind of earthquakes with a nonstandard spectrum was revealed by H. Kanamori in 1972. This problem can be overcome by using a magnitude scale that deals with longer period seismic waves. This study develops a technique for determining the magnitudes at regional distances (from 70 to 4500 km) using the amplitudes of surface seismic waves of periods of 40 and 80 s. At distances of 70–250 km, the amplitude of the joint group of shear and surface waves is used. For the new magnitudes designated M S(40) and M S(80), experimental calibration curves are constructed using more than 1250 three-component records at 12 stations of the region. The magnitudes are calibrated so as to produce an unbiased estimate of the moment magnitude M w in the critical range 7.5–8.8. The rms error of the single-station estimate M w is around 0.27. At distances below 250 km and M w ≥ 8.3, the estimate of M w obtained by the proposed technique becomes saturated at the level of M w ~ 8.3, which is acceptable for operative analysis because no missed alarms arise. The technique can be used in operational tsunami warning based on seismological data. This can markedly decrease the number of false alarms.  相似文献   

10.
We perform the analysis of tsunami waves in the shelf zone of the Crimean peninsula generated by underwater earthquakes whose epicentres are located near the lower boundary of the continental slope. For this purpose, we use a one-dimensional nonlinear dissipative numerical model of long waves. The investigated distributions of the depth of the basin correspond to four points of the south coast of the Crimean peninsula. We use the empirical dependences of parameters of the sources of tsunami waves on the magnitude of the earthquake obtained earlier for the Pacific Ocean. It is shown that the height, vertical climb, and duration of tsunami waves increase with the magnitude of the earthquake. For equal magnitudes of the earthquake, the highest tsunamis on the south coast of the Crimea are observed between Alushta and Yalta. We also deduced a generalized regression dependence of the height of tsunami waves near the coast on the magnitude of the earthquake. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev  相似文献   

11.
The spatiotemporal variability of equatorial Pacific upper ocean heat content (HC) and subsurface heat during two types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely eastern and central Pacific (EP and CP) types, is investigated using subsurface ocean heat budget analysis. Results show that HC tendencies during both types of ENSO are mainly controlled by oceanic heat advection beneath the mixed layer to the thermocline, and the role of net surface heat flux can be neglected. The most important three terms are the zonal and vertical advections of anomalous heat by climatological currents (QU 0 T′, QW 0 T′) and zonal advection of climatological heat by anomalous current (QU′T 0). The large contribution of QU 0 T′ extends from west to east along the equatorial Pacific. The considerable contribution of QU′T 0 is confined to the east of 160°W, and that of the QW 0 T′ is observed in the central Pacific between 180°E and 120°W. In particular, a major contribution of QW 0 T′ is also observed in the far eastern Pacific east of 100°W during EP ENSO. There is also a small contribution from meridional advection of climatological heat by anomalous current (QV′T 0). In contrast, the meridional advection of anomalous heat by climatological currents (QV 0 T′) and vertical advection of climatological heat by anomalous current (QW′T 0) are two damping factors in the HC tendency, with the former dominating. Differences in spatial distribution of the heat advection associated with the two types of ENSO are also presented. We define a warm water heat index (WWH) as integrated heat content above 26 kg m?3 potential density (26σ ? ) isopycnal depth within 130°E–80°W and 5°S–5°N. Further examination suggests that the recharge–discharge of WWH is involved in both types of El Niño, though with some differences. First, it takes about 42 (55) months for the evolution of a recharge–discharge cycle during an EP (CP) ENSO. Second, the EP El Niño event peaks during the discharge phase, 7–8 months after the recharge time. The CP El Niño peaks during the recharge phase, 4–5 months before the recharge time. The locations of HC anomalies in the El Niño mature phase relative to those at recharged time explain why the EP and CP El Niño peak in different stages of the recharge–discharge process.  相似文献   

12.
The Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) algorithm for the prediction of strong earthquakes has become known owing to the successful predictions of the Tokachi-oki earthquake near Hokkaido Island and the San Simeon earthquake of California in 2003, as well as to other well-documented predictions found on the Internet, some of which also proved to be successful. The RTP predictions with the use of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) data for the zone from Honshu Island to the Middle Kurile Islands deserve special attention. None of the five predictions starting in the middle of 2003, including the last one formulated for the region where the catastrophic earthquake of March 11, 2011, with a magnitude of M = 9 occurred, was a false alarm. One distinctive feature of predictions for this region is the enormous size (about 1000 km) of alarm regions. At the same time, the relatively short alarm interval makes it possible to record a real number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.2 and higher during alarm periods, which is about five times larger than on average over the equivalent period, i.e., to reach a probability gain of about five.  相似文献   

13.
A long-term mean turbulent mixing in the depth range of 200–1000 m produced by breaking of internal waves across the middle and low latitudes (40°S–40°N) of the Pacific between 160°W and 140°W is examined by applying fine-scale parameterization depending on strain variance to 8-year (2005–2012) Argo float data. Results show that elevated turbulent dissipation rate (ε) is related to significant topographic regions, along the equator, and on the northern side of 20°N spanning to 24°N throughout the depth range. Two patterns of latitudinal variations of ε and the corresponding diffusivity (Kρ) for different depth ranges are confirmed: One is for 200–450 m with significant larger ε and Kρ, and the maximum values are obtained between 4°N and 6°N, where eddy kinetic energy also reaches its maximum; The other is for 350–1000 m with smaller ε and Kρ, and the maximum values are obtained near the equator, and between 18°S and 12°S in the southern hemisphere, 20°N and 22°N in the northern hemisphere. Most elevated turbulent dissipation in the depth range of 350–1000 m relates to rough bottom roughness (correlation coefficient?=?0.63), excluding the equatorial area. In the temporal mean field, energy flux from surface wind stress to inertial motions is not significant enough to account for the relatively intensified turbulent mixing in the upper layer.  相似文献   

14.
The results of investigating the preparation zone of the catastrophic earthquake of March 11, 2011, near the eastern coast of Honshu Island are presented. A retrospective analysis of the focal mechanisms of deep earthquakes in the western part of the Pacific Ocean made it possible to reveal their influence on the zone of the Tohoku earthquake source. The preparation of this earthquake is also investigated within an analysis of the seismotectonic deformation processes at the regional level, which includes an estimation of the temporal trends of some key parameters, as well as the detection of their variations and the spatial confinement of anomalies to the source zone.  相似文献   

15.
Instead of approximation formula ln(E(t)/E(0)) = [(a ? bt)t/(c + T)] commonly used at present for representing dependence of pressure of saturated streams of liquid water E upon temperature we suggested new approximation formula of greater accuracy in the form ln(E(t)/E(0)) = [(A ? Bt + Ct 2)t/T], where t and T are temperature in °C and K respectively. For this formula with parameters A = 19.846, B = 8.97 × 10?3, C = 1.248 × 10?5 and E(0) = 6.1121 GPa with ITS-90 temperature scale and for temperature range from 0°C to 110°C relative difference of approximation applying six parameter formula by W. Wagner and A. Pruß 2002, developed for positive temperatures, is less than 0.005%, that is approximately 15 times less than accuracy obtained with the firs formula. Increase of temperature range results in relative difference increasing, but for even temperature range from 0°C to 220°C it does not higher than 0.1%. For negative temperatures relative difference between our formula and a formula of D. M. Murphy and T. Koop, 2005, is less than 0.1% for temperatures higher than ?25°C. This paper also presents values of coefficients for approximation of Goff and Grach formula recommended by IMO. The procedure of finding dew point T d for known water steam pressure e n based on our formula adds up to solving an algebraic equation of a third degree, which coefficients are presented in this paper. For simplifying this procedure this paper also includes approximation ratio applying a coefficient A noted above, in the form T d (e n ) = \(\frac{{AT_0 }}{{A - \varepsilon }}\) + 0.0866?2 + 0.0116?10/3, where ? = ln(e n /E(T 0)). Error of dew point recovery in this ratio is less than 0.005 K within the range from 0 to 50°C.  相似文献   

16.
An array of 5 pressure-recording inverted echo sounders (PIESs) was deployed along the Jason-2 214 ground track in the North Equatorial Current (NEC) region of the western Pacific Ocean for about 2 years from June 2012. Round-trip acoustic travel time from the bottom to the sea surface and bottom pressure measurements from PIES were converted to sea level anomaly (SLA). AVISO along-track mono-mission SLA (Mono-SLA), reference mapped SLA (Ref-MSLA), and up-to-date mapped SLA (Upd-MSLA) products were used for comparison with PIES-derived SLA (ηtot). Comparisons of ηtot with Mono-SLA revealed that hump artifact errors significantly contaminate the Mono-SLA. Differences of ηtot from both Ref-MSLA and Upd-MSLA decreased as the hump errors were reduced in mapped SLA products. Comparisons of Mono-SLA measurements at crossover points of ground tracks near the observation sites revealed large differences though the time differences of their measurements were only 1.53 and 4.58 days. Comparisons between Mono-SLA and mapped SLA suggested that mapped SLA smooths out the hump artifact errors by taking values between the two discrepant Mono-SLA measurements at the crossover points. Consequently, mapped SLA showed better agreement with ηtot at our observation sites. AVISO mapped sea surface height (SSH) products are the preferable dataset for studying SSH variability in the NEC region of the western Pacific, though some portions of hump artifact errors seem to still remain in them.  相似文献   

17.
Seismicity characteristics in the areas of Sarez Lake and the Nurek water reservoir are studied. Ring-shaped seismicity structures in two depth ranges (0–33 and 34–70 km) formed prior to the Pamir earthquake of December 7, 2015 (M w = 7.2). Seismicity rings cross each other near the Usoi Dam, which formed after the strong earthquake in 1911 and led to the formation of Sarez Lake, and near the epicenter of the Pamir earthquake. In addition, three out of the four strongest events (М ≥ 6.0) recorded in the Pamir region at depths of more than 70 km since 1950 have occurred near Sarez Lake. An aggregate of the data allows us to conclude that the Pamir earthquake, despite its very large energy, refers to events related to induced seismicity. Ring-shaped seismicity structures in two depth ranges also formed in the Nurek water reservoir area. It is supposed that the formation of ring-shaped structures is related to the self-organization processes of a geological system, which result in the ascent of deep-seated fluids. In this respect, the lithosphere is gradually adapting to the additional load related to the filling of the water reservoir. The difference between Nurek Dam (and many other hydroelectric power stations as well) and Usoi Dam is the permanent vibration in the former case due to water falling from a height of more than 200 m. Such an effect can lead to gradual stress dissipation, resulting in the occurrence of much weaker events when compared to the Pamir earthquake of December 7, 2015, in the areas of artificial water reservoirs.  相似文献   

18.
Based on long-term (1985–1995) monitoring data, the paper considers the peculiarities of seasonal variability in the spatial and vertical distribution of particulate organic phosphorus (РPOM) in the surface layer and in the photosynthetic zone in the northwestern Black Sea. Regression equations, experimental data, and satellite observations for the chlorophyll a concentration allowed us to evaluate the seasonal longterm (1979–1995) variability in РPOM in the surface layer and photosynthesis zone. The ratios of the concentrations of particulate organic carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and chlorophyll a are calculated and statistical estimates of seasonal changes in the РPOM in the areas with different degrees of influence of river runoff and water of open seas are obtained. The consistency of intra-annual changes in the concentrations of РPOM, chlorophyll a, and phytoplankton biomass is shown, which indicates the role of phytoplankton in the formation of РPOM and in its intra- and interannual variability in the northwestern part of the sea. It is shown that long-term seasonal variations in РPOM and related changes in the concentration of chlorophyll a depend on the variability of bulk river runoff, the extent of its abundance in the northwestern shelf, and regional hydrometeorological conditions.  相似文献   

19.
腹壁纤毛虫是一种附着在浮游动物上的原生生物，尤其是附着在桡足类和甲壳类上的。而缘毛虫是可以以自由或寄生的形式在世界各沿海地区和港湾处被发现。本研究首次对东印度洋表层至200 m深海域的缘毛类纤毛虫以及其水平分布展开了研究。根据纤毛虫的形态、纤毛结构和茎的形态等的特征，在2014年4月10日至5月13日东印度洋航次的浮游生物拖网样品中鉴定出了五种富腹纤毛虫，海洋钟形虫Vorticella oceanica、交替聚缩虫Zoothamnium alternans、阿拉聚缩虫Zoothamnium alrasheidi、远洋聚缩虫Zoothamnium pelagicum和海洋聚缩虫Zoothamnium marinum。并通过光显微镜和扫描显微镜拍摄的照片，说明了其形态、尺寸和特征。研究结果表明，海洋钟形虫和远洋聚缩虫的分布与硅藻（如，密聚角毛藻Chaetoceros coarctatus）和桡足类（如，短角长腹剑水蚤Oithona brevicornis）等寄主有关，也包括甲藻（如，三角角藻Ceraitum tripose）周围的一些个体。这些附着纤毛虫的分布在东印度洋海域东南区以海洋钟形虫、远洋聚缩虫和海洋聚缩虫为主，而在孟加拉湾北部则有大量的阿拉聚缩虫。这种分布的变化可能是与寄主的分布有关，如桡足类（短角长腹剑水蚤）和硅藻（密聚角毛藻）的分布影响。  相似文献   

20.
The species compositions of the genus Chironomus in the Curonian and Vistula lagoons are very similar, represented by Ch. plumosus and Ch. balatonicus. In the Curonian Lagoon, in addition to these two species, Ch. muratensis and the first-generation interspecific hybrid Ch. muratensis × Ch. plumosus are also found. In this lagoon, Ch. plumosus occurs most frequently (84%); Ch. balatonicus is considered a subdominant species (24%). In the Vistula Lagoon, on the contrary, the high frequency of occurrence is typical of Ch. balatonicus (89%); for Ch. plumosus, it reaches only 11%. The Ch. plumosus population occupies most of the Curonian Lagoon; Ch. balatonicus is present only in its northern part, from the village of Juodkrante to the city of Klaipeda. In the Vistula Lagoon, Ch. balatonicus is distributed over almost its entire area, while Ch. plumosus is found locally, only near the mouth of the Nogat River. The distribution of the sibling species in the lagoons is determined by the salinity gradient.  相似文献   

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