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1.
The rise or fall trend of the sea level along the coast of East Asia is estimated with different computational methods based on sea‐level data of longer time series collected from 45 tide gauge stations there. The results show that the relative sea level, on average, has been rising along the coast of the whole of East Asia from the early 1950s to the early 1990s. The regional change of sea‐level rise or fall is greater. The sea level along the coast of China, except along the Shandong Peninsula, is rising; the sea level along the coast of the southern islands of Japan and the southern Korean peninsula, as estimated by several methods, is mostly rising, but the rate of rise is very small. The difference between the results estimated in this study and the corresponding results of Barnett along the coast of East Asia is significant. This is mainly because the number of the stations selected by Barnett is relatively small, and the selected stations are concentrated at the southern and northern ends of the region, without data in the middle of the region. The effect of the estimating methods is smaller. 相似文献
2.
根据东亚沿岸４５个水位观测站的长序列水位资料，用不同的计算区域平均海平面升降的方法，估计了该区海平面升降趋势。结果表明，从本世纪５０年代初至９０年代初，整个海区平均而言海平面呈上升趋势。海平面升降的区域性变化较大：中国沿岸除山东半岛外，其他海区平均是上升的，在日本群岛南部和朝鲜半岛南部沿岸，由几种方法得出的结果多数是上升的，但上升幅度很小。本文对东亚沿岸海平面升降的估计结果与Ｂａｒｎｅｔｔ的相应估计差别较大，其主要原因是Ｂａｒｎｅｔｔ选站较少，且选的站集中在该区南北两端，中间部分无资料；估计方法虽有影响，但属次要的。 相似文献
3.
带周期项的海平面变化灰色分析模型及广西海平面变化分析 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
提出了一种带周期项的海平面变化灰色分析模型.该模型保持了GM(1,1)模型能较好反应海平面变化趋势的优点,不仅能求出海平面变化速率,还能方便求出海平面变化的加速度,同时,该模型能较好的模拟海平面变化中的周期现象,从而克服了GM(1,1)不能预报周期性显著的月平均海面的缺点,并提高了预报精度.模型用于广西沿岸海平面变化分析,结果表明北海、涸洲、白龙尾3站的相对海平面上升速率分别为1.67、2.51、0.89mm/a;石头埠相对海平面呈下降趋势,下降速率为0.5～1.0mm/a;广西沿岸绝对海平面上升速率为2.0mm/a.和线性趋势项与周期项叠加的海平面分析模型相比,两者模拟精度相当. 相似文献
4.
On the basis of the analyses of significant periods for the sea level observation data taken from recent several decades at 12 tide stations, the monthly mean sea level observations are fitted by a model of linear trend of sea level change superimposed with several variations of different fixed periods. The trends of sea level relative changes and their errors are estimated by the LS method. The results are reduced to the isostatic datum proposed and established in the paper (Huang et al. , 1991, Seismology and Geology , 1, 1-15). The trends of sea level changes in the near future along the coast of China are studied. It is pointed out that the general trend of the sea level change along the coast of China is going up slowly and the rate of the change is not the same in different segments of the coasts. In a few segments, the sea level is even relatively going down. The numerical results given in this paper provide a basis for the predictions of the future sea level changes and their effects. 相似文献
5.
利用环日本岛沿岸38个验潮站连续36 a的实测水位资料,分析了环日本岛沿岸平均海平面的长期变化特征,结果表明平均海平面的异常变化在1984年前后发生较大转折,近20多年来主要呈现持续上升趋势,部分站位在1997年前后也有较明显的下降趋势,表明海平面的长期变化中存在较长周期的波动情况。通过对所有验潮站的日平均海平面序列进行平均,发现与西北太平洋SST异常变化呈正相关,相关系数为0.908;与太平洋年代际变化(PDO)指数呈负相关,相关系数为-0.6;与西北太平洋风旋度场的异常变化呈正相关,相关系数为0.402。结果表明环日本岛沿岸平均海平面的长期变化受到海水热膨胀效应、太平洋年代际变化以及风应力引起的海水堆积和流失等因素的影响。同时,发现从2000年开始西北太平洋的SST开始下降,而平均海平面仍然在持续上升,其上升原因还需作进一步研究与探讨。 相似文献
6.
中国沿岸现代海平面变化及未来趋势分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文用线性回归分析方法，分１９８５年以前和１９９２年以前两个时段，对我国沿岸２５个验潮站近百年来的海平面资料进行了系统分析，计算了两个时段相对海平面变化的年速率和平均海面高度，论述了海平面变化的主要控制因素，并对未来海平面变化趋势进行了预测。计算结果表明，近百年来我国沿岸相对海平面在总体上不但持续上升，而且近年来上升速率普遍加快；根据海平面变化的主要控制因素变化趋向，预计到下世纪中叶前后，全球性海平面大幅度上升的可能性不大，我国沿岸区域性海乎面平均上升幅度不超过１５ｃｍ，不同岸段因地壳升降差异性大而有较大差别。 相似文献
7.
Mean sea level variations in the eastern Asia region during 1950 to 1991 are investigated with the use of observed sea level data at 16 stations. It is suggested from the data analysis, that the main cause of long-term sea level variation in this region may be the plate tectonic processes. The mean sea levels along the eastern coasts of Japan and the Philippines, and that along the southern coast of Indonesia have risen due to the subsidence of Pacific, Philippine and Australian plates under the Eurasian plate, respectively. On the other hand, the mean sea levels along the western coasts of Japan and the Philippines, and that along the northern coast of Indonesia have fallen. The distribution map of mean sea level rise at the year 2030 from 1985 in this region is presented on the basis of the results of this work and IPCC (1990). 相似文献
8.
太平洋海域海平面变化的灰色系统分析 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3
应用灰色系统理论，对太平洋海域４８个长期验潮站的月均海平面分别建立了ＧＭ（１，１）模型。ＧＭ（１，１）模型能较好地反映太平洋海域的海平面变化的趋势，它除了能给出连续的海平面变化速率外，同时能方便地给出海平面变化的加速率。模拟结果表明，在太平洋地壳均衡假设下，太平洋海域的月均海平面以平均速率０．１７ｃｍ／ａ上升。在太平洋海域所取的４８个长期验潮站中，有４０个站在加速上升，全部站的平均加速度为０．０００２９ｃｍ／ａ２。且加速率逐渐增大。当然这些加速率都很小，但作为一种普遍性的趋势，这已足以说明：太平洋海域的海平面在加速上升 相似文献
9.
沿海水位和大尺度气候状态——降尺度技术在日本列岛的应用 相似文献
10.
区域海平面变化是目前气候变化研究的热点问题。海平面变化具有时间和空间的异质性,分析海平面变化,应充分考虑时间和空间的差异。基于集合经验模态分解(Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition,EEMD)、最小二乘法,利用卫星高度计、验潮站数据,分析了1993—2016年间中国近海及周边海域海平面的时空变化规律。利用EEMD,计算了1993—2016年中国近海海平面变化空间结构的时间变化规律。结果表明中国近海海平面持续升高,但海平面变化在空间分布和时间上的变化并不均匀。空间结构大致分三个部分:大陆沿岸海平面持续上升且上升速率逐年增加,近海海区升高速率逐年降低,而研究区域内的西太平洋西部海区先减速升高又加速降低。分别利用EEMD分解和线性最小二乘拟合算法计算了1993—2016年中国近海海平面平均上升速率的空间分布,结果表明两种方法得到的海平面升高速率的空间分布大致吻合。两种方法均显示沿海地区的上升速率远大于近海海区,沿海地区上升速率大约为6 mm/a,近海海区上升速率大约为2 mm/a。但EEMD方法显示在广东沿岸和靠近赤道部分区域的上升速率更大。分别计算了大陆沿岸、近海及西太平洋西部海区三个海区内空间平均的海平面时间变化的线性及非线性趋势。非线性趋势显示大陆沿岸海区海平面加速上升,上升速率由1993年的3.65 mm/a,增加到2016年的5.03 mm/a;近海地区海平面上升速率逐年变小,由1993年的4.51 mm/a,减缓至2016年的3.8 mm/a;西太平洋西部海区海平面先减速上升,后加速下降,从1993年的上升率为9.5 mm/a,逐渐变化到2016年的下降率为2.27 mm/a。利用验潮站数据分析了大连、坎门、香港的水位变化,除大连海平面上升速率降低外,其余均显示海平面上升速度逐年升高,和卫星高度计的结果吻合。 相似文献
11.
《African Journal of Marine Science》2013,35(1):195-203
Principal components analysis was used to examine monthly data on sea level obtained from tide-gauge records from the west coast of southern Africa over the period 1957—1975. After a simple correction had removed the effect of local atmospheric pressure, this statistical analysis revealed the structure of nearshore ocean variability over time periods of months to years. The first principal component, accounting for over 55 per cent of the variability in monthly mean sea level, was a near uniform rise and fall everywhere along the west coast of southern Africa. The spectrum of this large-scale structure showed a strong interannual trend, which correlated well with long-term trends of temperature anomaly over the entire South-East Atlantic, and a high-frequency term, which could not be resolved at a time period of one month. The second principal component showed the contrasting response of the northern and southern sites on a seasonal scale, and it could be correlated with seasonal wind data. These results compared well with similar analysis carried out in the North Pacific Ocean. 相似文献
12.
Shigehisa Nakamura 《Marine Geodesy》2001,24(1):27-33
This article concerns an interrelation between the sea levels and the western boundary flow near a tectonic boundary in a local zone in the Northwestern Pacific. In this zone, sea level variations at stations located on the coast facing the Pacific are studied to find the interrelation between variations of the Kurosio flow as an index of the distance of the flow axis off a specific coast. The result is discussed after data processing of the monthly means of the sea levels, and a notice is taken of variations caused by active crustal upheavals during a seismic event, a local earthquake. 相似文献
13.
Shigehisa Nakamura 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(1):27-33
This article concerns an interrelation between the sea levels and the western boundary flow near a tectonic boundary in a local zone in the Northwestern Pacific. In this zone, sea level variations at stations located on the coast facing the Pacific are studied to find the interrelation between variations of the Kurosio flow as an index of the distance of the flow axis off a specific coast. The result is discussed after data processing of the monthly means of the sea levels, and a notice is taken of variations caused by active crustal upheavals during a seismic event, a local earthquake. 相似文献
14.
ＰｅｒｉｏｄｃｏｍｐｏｎｅｎｔｓｉｎｔｈｅｍｏｎｔｈｌｙｍｅａｎｓｅａｌｅｖｅｌｖａｒｉａｔｉｏｎｓｉｎｔｈｅＰａｃｉｆｉｃＯｃｅａｎ￥ＴｉａｎＳｕｚｈｅｎ；ＭａＪｉｒｕｉ；ＺｈｅｎｇＷｅｎｚｈｅｎ；ＣｈａｉＸｉｎｍｉｎａｎｄＺｈａｎｇＱｉｎ（Ｒｅｃ... 相似文献
15.
A~as~Sof~~LIngeneral,sealevelisresolvedintOatrendtermplusaPeriedictermintheanalysisofsealevelvdriations(haetal.1996;ZuoandChen,1996;QinandLi,1997;Zhengetal.,1993;RenandZhang,1993),namely,thetimeequencesofmonthlyorannualmeansealevely(o)(t)canbeexpr~asy(o)(t)=T(o)(t) p(o)(t) X(o)(t) .(o)(t),(l)whereT(o)(t)isadefinitetrendterm;p(o)(t)isadefiniteperiedicterm;X(o)(t)isatimeseriesofrandomterm;a(o)(t)iswhitenoise.Thefunctionstructuresofthetrendtermaregenerallyunknown,whiledeterminingthetrendter… 相似文献
16.
The future regional sea level (RSL) rise in the western North Pacific is investigated by dynamical downscaling with the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with an eddy-permitting resolution based on three global climate models—MIROC-ESM, CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, and GFDL-CM3—under the highest greenhouse-gas emission scenario. The historical run is forced by the air-sea fluxes calculated from Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiment version 2 (COREv2) data. Three future runs—ROMS-MIROC, ROMS-CSIRO, and ROMS-GFDL—are forced with an atmospheric field constructed by adding the difference between the climate model parameters for the twenty-first and twentieth century to fields in the historical run. In all downscaling, the RSL rise along the eastern coast of Japan is generally half or less of the RSL rise maxima off the eastern coast. The projected regional (total) sea level rises along the Honshu coast during 2081–2100 relative to 1981–2000 are 19–25 (98–104), 6–15 (71–80), and 8–14 (80–86) cm in ROMS-MIROC, ROMS-CSIRO, and ROMS-GFDL, respectively. The discrepancies of the RSL rise along the Honshu coast between the climate models and downscaling are less than 10 cm. The RSL changes in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region in all downscaling simulations are related to the changes of KE (northward shift or intensification) with climate change. 相似文献
17.
Sea level variations in the regional seas around Taiwan 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The patterns and trends of sea level rise in the regional seas around Taiwan have been investigated through the analyses of
long-term tide-gauge and satellite altimetry data. Series of tide-gauge data extending over 50 years reveal decadal and interannual
variations and spatially-inhomogeneous patterns of generally rising sea level. The East Asia tide-gauge stations around Taiwan
show an average trend of +2.4 mm/yr from 1961–2003, which is larger than the reported global rate of +1.8 mm/yr for the same
period. These stations also show significantly larger sea level rise rates (+5.7 mm/yr) than global values (+3.1 mm/yr) during
the period from 1993–2003. Consistent with the coastal tide-gauge records, satellite altimetry data show similar increasing
rates (+5.3 mm/yr) around Taiwan during the same period. Comparisons with temperature anomalies in the upper ocean suggest
that thermal expansion and heat advection in the upper layer contribute significantly to the long-term sea level variations
in this area with correlations >0.9 for observations after 1992. Thermosteric sea level variations may also explain the interannual
and decadal variations of the observed sea level rises around Taiwan. Our analysis also indicates that the altimetry data
are only part of a long-term, larger-scale signal. Finally, we have found that a non-linear smoother, LOESS, is more suitable
for extracting long-term trends in sea level than the traditional linear regression approach. 相似文献
18.
The issue of sea level rise is receiving considerable attention all over the world. Although the Indian stations have shown mixed trends, a positive sea level trend has been noticed in the Hooghly Estuary, situated on the east coast of India. The Hooghly River serves as a navigable waterway to Calcutta and Haldia ports. The river is tidal for nearly 250 km. To study the water levels and tidal currents in the lower part of the Hooghly Estuary, from sea face at Sagar to Hooghly Point, a vertically integrated numerical model has been used. The model is fully nonlinear and uses a semiexplicit finite‐difference scheme to solve the basic hydrodynamic equations on a staggered grid. This model is coupled with a one‐dimensional model, which has been used for the upper estuary from Hooghly Point to Swarupganj, where the flow is unidirectional. The computed water levels and currents are found to be in good agreement with the available observations. This model is applied to study the alterations in tidal circulation for a rise and fall in the sea level. The results have shown a substantial increase in the amplitude and velocities of the tidal wave due to the sea level rise. 相似文献
19.
Tariq Masood Ali Khan D. A. Razzaq Qamar-Uz-Zaman Chaudhry Dewan Abdul Quadir Anwarul Kabir Majajul Alam Sarker 《Marine Geodesy》2002,25(1):159-174
The UNEP in its regional seas program in 1989 has included Pakistan in a group of countries which are vulnerable to the impact of rising sea level. If the present trend of sea level rise (SLR) at Karachi continues, in the next 50 years the sea level rise along the Pakistan Coast will be 50 mm (5 cm). Since the rising rates of sea level at Karachi are within the global range of 1-2 mm/year, the trends may be treated as eustatic SLR. Historical air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) data of Karachi also show an increasing pattern and an increasing trend of about 0.67°C has been registered in the air temperature over the last 35 years, whereas the mean SST in the coastal waters of Karachi has also registered an increasing trend of about 0.3°C in a decade. Sindh coastal zone is more vulnerable to sea level rise than Baluchistan coast, as uplifting of the coast by about 1-2 mm/year due to subduction of Indian Ocean plate is a characteristic of Baluchistan coast. Within the Indus deltaic creek system, the area nearby Karachi is more vulnerable to coastal erosion and accretion than the other deltaic region, mainly due to human activities together with natural phenomena such as wave action, strong tidal currents, and rise in sea level. Therefore, The present article deals mainly with the study of dynamical processes such as erosion and accretion associated with sea level variations along the Karachi coast and surrounding Indus deltaic coastline. The probable beach erosion in a decade along the sandy beaches of Karachi has been estimated. The estimates show that 1.1 mm/year rise in sea level causes a horizontal beach loss of 110 mm per year. Therefore, coast eroded with rise in sea level at Karachi and surrounding sandy beaches would be 1.1 m during a period of next 10 years. The northwestern part of Indus delta, especially the Gizri and Phitti creeks and surrounding islands, are most unstable. Historical satellite images are used to analyze the complex pattern of sediment movements, the change in shape of coastline, and associated erosion and accretion patterns in Bundal and Buddo Islands. The significant changes in land erosion and accretion areas at Bundal and Buddo Islands are evident and appear prominently in the images. A very high rate of accretion of sediments in the northwestern part of Buddo Island has been noticed. In the southwest monsoon season the wave breaking direction in both these islands is such that the movement of littoral drift is towards west. Erosion is also taking place in the northeastern and southern part of Bundal Island. The erosion in the south is probably due to strong wave activities and in the northeast is due to strong tidal currents and seawater intrusion. Accretion takes place at the northwest and western parts of Bundal Island. By using the slope of Indus delta, sea encroachment and the land area inundation with rising sea level of 1 m and 2 m have also been estimated. 相似文献
20.
本文通过对中国沿海25个观测站水位资料的分析,初步探讨了中国沿海1980-2012年增减水的变化特征及与海平面变化的关系。结果表明:（1）中国沿海增减水的季节变化特征明显,相邻站由于受到的气象状况相同,其沿海增减水变化的过程相近,但是变化幅度存在较大差异。从空间分布看,沿海增减水的变化幅度呈现中间大南北小的区域特征,自长江口至广东沿海,增减水的年变化幅度最大,年变幅平均为5.0~7.5 cm;南海周边及北部湾沿海,增减水的年变化幅度次之,年变幅平均为4.0~5.5 cm;自渤海至黄海沿海,增减水的年变化幅度较小,年变幅平均为3.3~3.5 cm。（2）从时间变化看,1980-2012年中国沿海年平均增减水长期基本没有趋势性变化,但明显存在2至5年的周期性变化信号,该信号的震荡幅度为0.1 cm。经过高频滤波后,对沿海月平均增减水序列与Niño3.4指数进行相关性分析,相关系数为-0.5,该相关系数通过了显著性检验,说明中国沿海的增减水变化与ENSO事件呈现负相关关系。（3）中国沿海增减水的长期变化及空间分布特征均与海平面变化不同。1980-2012年,中国沿海海平面的上升速率为2.9 mm/a,而增减水长期基本无趋势性变化;另外,其季节变化与海平面的季节变化从时间和区域上均不存在一致性。（4）但是,短期海平面的变化与增减水有关,并且增减水对短期海平面的贡献根据其具体情况而定,增水幅度大且持续时间长的过程对短期海平面有抬升作用,其贡献率最大可达65%;反之,减水幅度大且持续时间长的过程则对短期海平面有降低的作用。 相似文献