共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Zhou Binbin 《海洋学报(英文版)》1988,7(2):314-320
昒sually, the stepwise regression method is used to select the forecasting factors in the most forecasting problems and the double correlation coefficient is used as a standard for the judge ment of the forecasting function. In fact, it cannot be decided whether the forecasting function is to be adopted or not only according to whether the double correlation coefficient is large or small. Here, we used the freedom adjusting method of the double correlation coefficient to study the season forecasting and used the method to select the factors for the fishing season forecasting function of the Spanish Mackerel (Scomberomorus) at the estuary of the Changjiang River. The test result of reforecasting is satisfactory and the greatest error is only two days as compared with the real fishing season. The forecasting result of the fishing season is also satisfactory. 相似文献
2.
Better forecast of tropical cyclone(TC) can help to reduce risk and enhance management. The TC forecast depends on the scientific understanding of oceanic processes, air-sea interaction and finally, the atmospheric process. The TC Viyaru is taken as an example, which is formed at the end of 11 May 2013 and sustains up to 17 May 2013 during pre-monsoon season. Argo data are used to investigate ocean response processes by comparing pre-and post-conditions of the TC. Eight oceanic parameters including the sea surface temperature(SST), the sea surface salinity(SSS), and the barrier layer thickness(BLT), the 26°C isotherm depth in the ocean(D26), the isothermal layer depth(ILD), the mixed layer depth(MLD), the tropical cyclone heat potential(TCHP) and the effective oceanic layer for cyclogenesis(EOLC) are chosen to evaluate the pre-and post-conditions of the TC along the track of Viyaru. The values of the SST, D26, BLT, TCHP and EOLC in the pre-cyclonic condition are higher than the post-cyclonic condition, while the SSS, ILD and MLD in the post-cyclonic condition are higher than the pre-cyclonic condition of the ocean due to strong cyclonic winds and subsurface upwelling. It is interesting that the strong intensity of the TC reduces less SST and vice versa. The satisfied real time Argo data is not available in the northern Bay of Bengal especially in the coastal region. A weather research and forecasting model is employed to hindcast the track of Viyaru, and the satellite data from the National Center Environmental Prediction are used to assess the hindcast. 相似文献
3.
Tang Yuxiang 《海洋学报(英文版)》1989,8(2):179-190
-A two-dimensional.nonlinear numerical model is used to study the residual current generated by tides in the East China Sea (ECS)and the South Huanghai Sea (SHS). At first, the principal semidiurnal lunar tide (M2)and the tidal current are derived in these areas. The results obtained with the model are strongly supported by the observational results available. Then, the tide-induced residual flow is determined by using the currents generated by the tidal input. The main features of the residual current in ECS and SHS are presented by analyzing the calculated results. Some of the problems are discussed such as the cause of generating residual current and the contribution of the residual current to the observed current. 相似文献
4.
Data used in this study are temperature/depth profiles taken over the upper 400 m of the ocean in the southern South China Sea (4°-14° N, 106°-120° E) for the period 1961-1973. The data are analyzed on the grid 2 (latitude) by 2 (longitude) in space and bimonthly in time. The vertically averaged temperature (TAV) over the upper 100 m of the ocean is calculated as the estimate of the heat content in the upper ocean.The TAV is cooler in the northwest region of the study area and warmer in the southeast in the annual and seasonal mean figures. The first EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) of anomalous TAV accounts for 41 % of the total variance for the period 1961-1973. The time function associated with it displays a significant interannual changes in the heat content, with 2-4 a oscillation period and associated with the ENSO events. During ENSO event TAV increases with the tendency of increasing towards equator along the basin. This anomalous states also exist in the water layers below 100 m depth. T 相似文献
5.
Internal tide is one of the major oceanic phenomena. Determination of internal tide is important for theoretical study and for ocean engineering research. As an inverse problem, extraction of internal tidal currenls from sea currents is diffi-cult. In this paper, a method is developed to extract internal tidal currents from a portion of the sea current profile based on the fact that the directions of internal tidal currents above and below the thermocline are inverse. Sea current data col-lected from the South China Sea is processed with this method. The internal tidal currents and the depth of the thermocline are successfully extracted. The depth of the thermocline determined is in good agreement with that measured in 1959. 相似文献
6.
Microwave remote sensing is one of the most useful methods for observing the ocean parameters. The Doppler frequency or interferometric phase of the radar echoes can be used for an ocean surface current speed retrieval,which is widely used in spaceborne and airborne radars. While the effect of the ocean currents and waves is interactional. It is impossible to retrieve the ocean surface current speed from Doppler frequency shift directly. In order to study the relationship between the ocean surface current speed and the Doppler frequency shift, a numerical ocean surface Doppler spectrum model is established and validated with a reference. The input parameters of ocean Doppler spectrum include an ocean wave elevation model, a directional distribution function, and wind speed and direction. The suitable ocean wave elevation spectrum and the directional distribution function are selected by comparing the ocean Doppler spectrum in C band with an empirical geophysical model function(CDOP). What is more, the error sensitivities of ocean surface current speed to the wind speed and direction are analyzed. All these simulations are in Ku band. The simulation results show that the ocean surface current speed error is sensitive to the wind speed and direction errors. With VV polarization, the ocean surface current speed error is about 0.15 m/s when the wind speed error is 2 m/s, and the ocean surface current speed error is smaller than 0.3 m/s when the wind direction error is within 20° in the cross wind direction. 相似文献
7.
The effect of the wave-induced mixing on the upper ocean temperature in a climate model 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
The significant underestimation of sea surface temperature （SST） and the temperature in the upper ocean is one of common problems in present climate models. The influence of the wave-induced mixing on SST and the temperature in the upper ocean was examined based on a global climate model. The results from the model coupled with wave-induced mixing showed a significant improvement in the simulation of SST and the temperature in the upper ocean compared with those of the original model without wave effects. Although there has still a cold bias, the new simulation is much closer to the climatology, especially in the northern ocean and tropical ocean. This study indicates that some important physical processes in the accurate simulation of the ocean may be ignored in present climate models, and the wave-induced mixing is one of those factors. Thus, the wave-induced mixing （ or the effect of surface waves） should be incorporated properly into climate models in order to simulate or forecast the ocean, then climate system, more accurately. 相似文献
8.
In the present study,a numerical wave tank is developed to simulate the nonlinear wave-current interactions based on High Order Spectral(HOS) method.The influences of current on wave focusing are investigated by use of numerical model.The current is assumed to be constant in space.Focused waves with different amplitudes and frequency spectra are simulated with and without current.The focused wave characteristics,such as surface elevation,the maximum crest and frequency spectrum,with different current are compared.The results show that the opposing current increases the maximum crest and the energy transform during wave focusing process,and vice versa for the following current. 相似文献
9.
Lin Mingchung Hsiao Sungshan Hsu Yungcheng
Professor Dept. of Naval Architecture Ocean Engineering National Taiwan University Taiwan. Doctor Course Student Dept. of Naval Architecture Ocean Engineering National Taiwan University Taiwan 《中国海洋工程》1994,(3)
-Wave refraction-diffraction due to a large ocean structure and topography in the presence of a 'current are studied numerically. The mathematical model is the mild-slope equation developed by Kirby (1984). This equation is solved using a finite and boundary element method. The physical domain is devid-ed into two regions: a slowly varying topography region and a constant water depth region. For waves propagating in the constant water depth region, without current interfering, the mild- slope equation is then reduced to the Helmholtz equation which is solved by boundary element method. In varying topography region, this equation will be solved by finite element method. Conservation of mass and energy flux of the fluid between these two regions is required for composition of these two numerical methods. The numerical scheme proposed here is capable of dealing with water wave problems of different water depths with the main characters of these two methods. 相似文献
10.
-The model's physical equation is used to parameterize some subgrid-scale processes and physical processes in the present numerical model. The transmission and attenuation of the solar energy in the ocean are considered. A simple diagnostic equation for the cloud fractions k proposed on the basis of the humidities at the surface and the mid-troposphere. The parameterized formulae of both entrainment and Ekman pumping are improved.In the numerical integration, the treatment on damping the inertial oscillations is emphasized. The initialization and the objective analysis of the data which are necessary for the operational prediction will be presented in another paper.Results of SST prediction and some numerical experiments are given here. The model is computationally stable and successful in modelling the behaviors of the drift current and the mixed layer physics, and the AMD (absolute mean deviations) ≤1. 2℃ , RC (correlation coefficients ) ≥85% for 3-day forecasting. 相似文献
11.
It has been found that the sea-surface temperature and the characteristics of atmospheric circulation in the preceding months are closely related to the temperature and ice regime in winter months. This relationship is strikingly reflected over the strong ocean current regions and over the regions with quasi-permanent atmospheric center actions. It has also been shown that the influence of the ocean on the atmosphere is more pronounced over these regions. This relationship may offer a key for long-term forecasting of the sea-ice regime in winter. In addition, because there is an obvious instability, the stabilities of the correlation coefficients are analysed. In consideration of the fact that the formation of weather process changes with the variations of time scale, predictions for longer and shorter time scale processes are discussed separately.In conclusion, some forecasting results obtained and tests made in recent years are given. 相似文献
12.
Three-D numerical simulation of wind-driven current and density current in the Beibu Gulf 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4
The Beibu Gulf circulation plays an imPOrtant role in the long--term water rnass transportinside the gulf. It is also closely related to the Guangxi untal water mass transport and self-purification. Hence, it is of practical imPOrtance to study the circulation in the gUlf. The cir-culation in the gUlf is very comlicated, and is rnainly gOverned by wind, water density gradi-ent, the current outside the gulf and the bathpoetry. In spring, a cold water rnass generatesln the center of the gulf… 相似文献
13.
In this paper, the nonlinear waves and their barotropic stability in the tropical ocean and atmosphere are studied with the qualitative theory of the ordinary differential equation. The relationship is derived between the stability of nonlinear waves with different frequencies and the basic currents and their horizontal shear in the tropical ocean and atmosphere. 相似文献
14.
In this paper, the air-sea planetary boundary is divided into three layers. With the aid of geostrophic momentum approximation, wind and current profiles, surface wind, surface wind stress and Ekman pumpinii in the atmosphere as well as in the ocean affected by the atmospheric baroclini-city, stratification and nonlinear effects are investigated systematically for an ocean of infinite depth. Meanwhile, the characteristics of the air-sea interaction is analyzed. 相似文献
15.
A 3-D numerical model is set up in a large domain covering the Hang zhou Bay and the Changjiang Estuary based on the ECOM model in orthogonal curvilinear coordinates.The numerical schemes for baroclinic pressure gradient (BPG) terms and convective terms are improved in the paper according to the characteristics of velocity field and mass transport in the area.The model is validated by the simulations of residual current and salinity transport in the Hangzhou Bay and the Changjiang Estuary. 相似文献
16.
The HY-1A satellite is the first oceanic satellite of China. During the winter of 2002-2003, the data of the HY-1A were applied to the sea ice monitoring and forecasting for the Bohai Sea of China for the fhst time. The sea ice retrieval system of the HY-1A has been constructed. It receives 1B data from the satellite, outputs sea ice images and provides digital products of ice concentration, ice thickness and ice edge, which can be used as important information for sea ice monitoring and the initial fields of the numeric sea ice forecast and as one of the reference data for the sea ice forecasting verification. The sea ice retrieval system of the satellite is described, including its processes, methods and parameters. The retrieving results and their application to the sea ice monitoring and forecasting for the Bohai Sea are also discussed. 相似文献
17.
In this paper, effort is made to demonstrate the quality of high-resolution regional ocean circulation model in realistically simulating the circulation and variability properties of the northern Indian Ocean(10°S–25°N,45°–100°E) covering the Arabian Sea(AS) and Bay of Bengal(BoB). The model run using the open boundary conditions is carried out at 10 km horizontal resolution and highest vertical resolution of 2 m in the upper ocean.The surface and sub-surface structure of hydrographic variables(temperature and salinity) and currents is compared against the observations during 1998–2014(17 years). In particular, the seasonal variability of the sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and surface currents over the model domain is studied. The highresolution model's ability in correct estimation of the spatio-temporal mixed layer depth(MLD) variability of the AS and BoB is also shown. The lowest MLD values are observed during spring(March-April-May) and highest during winter(December-January-February) seasons. The maximum MLD in the AS(BoB) during December to February reaches 150 m (67 m). On the other hand, the minimum MLD in these regions during March-April-May becomes as low as 11–12 m. The influence of wind stress, net heat flux and freshwater flux on the seasonal variability of the MLD is discussed. The physical processes controlling the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature are investigated by carrying out mixed layer heat budget analysis. It is found that air-sea fluxes play a dominant role in the seasonal evolution of sea surface temperature of the northern Indian Ocean and the contribution of horizontal advection, vertical entrainment and diffusion processes is small. The upper ocean zonal and meridional volume transport across different sections in the AS and BoB is also computed. The seasonal variability of the transports is studied in the context of monsoonal currents. 相似文献
18.
The role of surface waves in the ocean mixed layer 总被引：7，自引：6，他引：1
Previously, most ocean circulation models have overlooked the role of the surface waves. As a result, these models have produced insufficient vertical mixing, with an under - prediction of the ,nixing layer （ML） depth and an over - prediction of the sea surface temperature （SST）, particularly during the summer season. As the ocean surface layer determines the lower boundary conditions of the atmosphere, this deficiency has severely limited the performance of the coupled ocean - atmospheric models and hence the climate studies. To overcome this shortcoming, a new parameterization for the wave effects in the ML model that will correct this systematic error of insufficient mixing. The new scheme has enabled the mixing layer to deepen, the surface excessive heating to be corrected, and an excellent agreement with observed global climatologic data. The study indicates that the surface waves are essential for ML formation, and that they are the primer drivers of the upper ocean dynamics; therefore, they are critical for climate studies. 相似文献
19.
The pelagic species is closely related to the marine environmental factors, and establishment of forecasting model of fishing ground with high accuracy is an important content for pelagic fishery. The chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus) in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea is an important fishing target for Chinese lighting purse seine fishery. Based on the fishery data from China's mainland large-type lighting purse seine fishery for chub mackerel during the period of 2003 to 2010 and the environmental data including sea surface temperature(SST), gradient of the sea surface temperature(GSST), sea surface height(SSH) and geostrophic velocity(GV), we attempt to establish one new forecasting model of fishing ground based on boosted regression trees. In this study, the fishing areas with fishing effort is considered as one fishing ground, and the areas with no fishing ground are randomly selected from a background field, in which the fishing areas have no records in the logbooks. The performance of the forecasting model of fishing ground is evaluated with the testing data from the actual fishing data in 2011. The results show that the forecasting model of fishing ground has a high prediction performance, and the area under receiver operating curve(AUC) attains 0.897. The predicted fishing grounds are coincided with the actual fishing locations in 2011, and the movement route is also the same as the shift of fishing vessels, which indicates that this forecasting model based on the boosted regression trees can be used to effectively forecast the fishing ground of chub mackerel in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea. 相似文献
20.
Evaluation of the simulation capability of the Wavewatch Ⅲ model for Pacific Ocean wave 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Wave climate analysis and other applications for the Pacific Ocean require a reliable wave hindcast. Five source and sink term packages in the Wavewatch III model(v3.14 and v4.18) are compared and assessed in this study through comprehensive observations, including altimeter significant wave height, advanced synthetic aperture radar swell, and buoy wave parameters and spectrum. In addition to the evaluation of typically used integral parameters, the spectra partitioning method contributes to the detailed wave system and wave maturity validation. The modified performance evaluation method(PS) effectively reduces attribute numbers and facilitates the overall assessment. To avoid possible misleading results in the root mean square error-based validations, another indicator called HH(indicating the two authors) is also calculated to guarantee the consistency of the results. The widely used Tolman and Chalikov(TC) package is still generally efficient in determining the integral properties of wave spectra but is physically deficient in explaining the dissipation processes. The ST4 package performs well in overall wave parameters and significantly improves the accuracy of wave systems in the open ocean. Meanwhile, the newly published ST6 package is slightly better in determining swell energy variations. The two packages(ACC350 and BJA) obtained from Wavewatch III v3.14 exhibit large scatters at different sea states. The three most ideal packages are further examined in terms of reproducing waveinduced momentum flux from the perspective of transport. Stokes transport analysis indicates that ST4 is the closest to the NDBC-buoy-spectrum-based transport values, and TC and ST6 tend to overestimate and underestimate the transport magnitude, respectively, in swell mixed areas. This difference must be considered,particularly in air–wave–current coupling research and upper ocean analysis. The assessment results provide guidance for the selection of ST4 for use in a background Pacific Ocean hindcast for high wave climate research and China Sea swell type analysis. 相似文献