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本文利用ERA5再分析数据和我国北极科学考察期间获取的走航气象观测数据,分析了夏季影响船舶通航北极航道的关键近地面气象要素的时空变化特征。结果表明,7–8月的天气条件最适宜船舶在北极航道航行,9月低温、大风和大浪天气显著增多,对船舶航行影响较大,10月的天气更加恶劣,对船舶航行的挑战更大。低温天气主要出现在各航道的中段,大风和大浪天气集中在航道两端的海域。除北极中心区和10月的挪威海和巴伦支海以外,其余时间的海域出现大风和大浪天气的概率以增加趋势为主,但具有较大的年际变化。根据现有北极航道气象观测数据分析发现,东北航道能见度最差,西北航道能见度最好,中央航道居中。 相似文献
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利用雷雨、大风等灾害天气资料和电力事故历史数据资料,分析了电力事故发生的时空分布特征及其与雷雨、大风、日平均气温等天气要素之间的关系。进而利用事件概率回归(regression estimation of event probability,REEP)和Logistic回归分析方法,得到了日照市电力事故发生概率与雷雨、大风和日平均气温之间关系的预警模型。研究结果表明:1)雷雨、大风是造成日照市电力事故的重要气象因素。2)雷雨、大风和高温等灾害天气对电力事故的发生虽都有促成作用,但影响能力存在较大差距。3)两种回归分析模型对因子和变量之间关系均有较好的拟合效果,相较而言,REEP模型更为直观,Logistic回归分析方法更为客观,适用性更强。4)回归分析结果建立在客观资料基础上,回归模型具有准确性、实用性,可为电力事故预警发布系统提供理论和技术支持。 相似文献
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针对船舶气象仪的综合检查过程中检测周期长、人工排查效率低以及传统的自动气象站传感器信号模拟器的模拟精度低，没有相关运动补偿算法导致此类系统不适应海洋船舶应用环境的问题，对气象要素传感器的高精度信号采样电路、信号输出、软件滤波和运动补偿等方面进行了研究。通过分析传感器和船舶气象仪的原理，设计了各个气象参数的采样电路、信号模拟电路、触摸屏、GPS和电子罗盘采样与模拟电路，并在近海测试过程中进行了运动补偿模型测试，并基于STM32微控制器进行了该仪器的系统检测实验。研究测试结果表明：该系统具有低功耗、高可靠性、高精度的特点，能应用于海上环境，同时具有对船舶实时定位、气象要素实时模拟和采集、运动补偿多项功能。并且本系统精度在运动补偿后，系统测量方差为0.019 3 m/s，精度提高至接近真实值，均符合《海洋调查规范第3部分：海洋气象观测》的标准。 相似文献
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山东省气象业务一体化平台（简称“一体化平台”）,是在气象业务系统集约化、自动化、智能化的建设要求下,为满足山东气象现代业务发展要求,解决山东气象业务运行中的诸多关键问题,利用互联网技术,面向山东全省天气预报业务设计研发的高度集约化的智能业务平台。一体化平台实现了基于内网 WebGIS 的气象数据渲染,基于 CIMISS、Oracle、Redis的三级数据库架构,基于 FTP、SMTP、传真服务器、阿里短信等技术的一键式发布引擎,基于 WebOffice的智能网格预报定制化气象服务,建立了山东短时和临近预报业务体系,融合了山东省气象部门近年来的多项科研成果。在此基础上实现了实况监测、短时临近预报、山洪预警、网格预报、产品制作发布、预报共享、预报检验和业务管理等功能。一体化平台支撑了 “省—市—县” 三级台站的天气预报业务和重大活动气象保障服务,提升了监测分析、短时和临近预警、决策服务能力。 相似文献
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利用基于三维势流理论的Wasim软件，系统研究了在不同海况下大型豪华邮轮的耐波性能及作用在救生艇上的砰击载荷。首先计算豪华邮轮在规则波和不规则波中的运动响应，分析航速、浪向和海况对豪华邮轮运动响应的影响规律，然后计算救生艇在不同海况下砰击载荷的变化规律，根据变化规律评估救生艇在实际航行中的安全性。结果表明：豪华邮轮运动响应幅值随着航速和海况的增大整体呈增大趋势，规则波中横摇运动响应幅值在浪向90°时最大；当豪华邮轮处于4级和6级海况时救生艇不发生砰击；当豪华邮轮处于8级海况且航速大于10.29 m/s时救生艇发生砰击，为保证救生艇的安全，邮轮应避免在浪向120°和浪向150°下航行，此时建议邮轮以低于12.35 m/s的航速迎浪180°航行。 相似文献
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为了研究石家庄地区输电线路雷击事故发生的气象条件,利用该地区1990—2018年输电线路雷击事故发生的详细资料和地面、探空气象资料,分析了输电线路雷击事故的时空变化,确定了容易发生输电线路雷击事故的天气系统配置和探空物理量阈值;通过输电线路雷击事故发生的气象条件,检验了2019—2020年输电线路雷击事故预报的准确性。结果表明:石家庄输电线路雷击事故主要发生在夏季傍晚前到前半夜,夏季发生概率明显高于春、秋季;输电线路雷击事故发生日数自西向东逐渐减少,集中发生在西部山区的井陉,其次是市区,井陉发生概率远高于其他地区;对流天气影响系统主要为高空槽型和冷涡型,探空物理量同时满足首要条件和附加条件时,引发输电线路雷击事故概率较高;输电线路雷击事故发生的气象条件在2019—2020年得到较好的预测检验,对防范雷击事故有一定指导意义。 相似文献
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Use of nautical radar as a wave monitoring instrument 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Common marine X-Band radars can be used as a sensor to survey ocean wave fields. The wave field images provided by the radars are sampled and analysed by a wave monitoring system (called WaMoS II) developed by the German research institute GKSS. This measuring system can be mounted on a ship, on offshore stations or at coastal locations. The measurement is based on the backscatter of microwaves from the ocean surface, which is visible as ‘sea clutter' on the radar screen. From this observable sea clutter, a numerical analysis is carried out. The unambiguous directional wave spectrum, the surface currents and sea state parameters such as wave periods, wave lengths, and wave directions can be derived. To provide absolute wave heights, the response of the nautical radar must be calibrated. Similar to the wave height estimations for Synthetic Aperture Radars, the so-called ‘Signal to Noise Ratio' leads to the determination of the significant wave height (HS). In this paper, WaMoS II results are compared with directional buoy data to show the capabilities of nautical microwave radars for sea state measurements. 相似文献
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The present study is employing the equivalent irregular wave approach to predict the wave loads for a ship encountering the worst sea state with respect to the critical dynamic loading parameter. Two different hydrodynamic numerical models, i.e. 3D pulsating source technique and 3D translating pulsating source technique, are applied to calculate the corresponding RAO of the ship moving in waves. Incorporating the RAO of the related physical properties, we can calculate the extreme value for the corresponding ship loading factor, which can be regarded as the worst sea state in the service lifetime of the ship. With the time and period of the occurrence of the corresponding extreme value, we can simulate the time history of the wave load in this period, which is so-called equivalent irregular wave approach. Comparing with the results calculated by the traditional equivalent regular wave approach, we find that the equivalent irregular wave approach can simulate the corresponding wave load more realistic, especially for dynamic pressure. Using the equivalent irregular wave approach can offer the effective and practical base for the ship structural analysis. 相似文献
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近年来全世界范围内船撞桥事故时常发生，尤其是大型跨海桥梁，对其进行合理的船撞桥风险评估逐渐成为桥梁安全运营的重要保障之一。通过对近年国内外船撞桥案例调研分析，确定了影响事故的多重因素，建立包括4个二级风险评价指标和18个三级指标的层次化评价指标体系，并运用层次分析（AHP）法和熵权法，对各评价指标进行主客观综合赋权，明确各个风险因素对船舶撞击的重要性程度，基于模糊数学理论对船撞桥风险进行多层次综合评判。以浙江省舟山朱家尖跨海大桥为工程背景，结合该桥某年船舶通航统计数据，运用上述方法进行船撞桥风险评估，计算表明朱家尖跨海大桥平均风险评价值为4.22，属于可接受中风险水平，并提出了相应的风险控制对策及措施。 相似文献
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Collision and grounding are the most common accidents in ship operation. Some accidents are due to human failure, but several research projects have shown that a high percentage of these accidents could have been avoided if the ship have had better manoeuvrability characteristics. This paper describes how, when the shipyard select some important ship parameters and dimensions at the design stage, these set of parameters influence manoeuvrability characteristics. To obtain these effects, some IMO manoeuvres have been numerically simulated for a sample ship and a non-linear numerical model proposed by the authors to study ship manoeuvrability is described in this work. The day to day practice of a shipyard where fast modelisation and calculations are required, and modifications to the original design are quite common at the preliminary design stage, requires fast but accurate numerical models. 相似文献
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发生海上事故后，为对周边海域船只和人员进行疏散及为应急处置提供科学依据，并实现对不同检测位置检测浓度的校正，需要对事故有毒有害气体的扩散进行计算。本文先通过经验公式计算，模拟事故船舶自然燃烧，而后采用高斯烟羽模型，通过结合事故现场的风浪等水文气象参数，构建海上事故有毒有害气体扩散模型。该模型在改进的高斯烟羽模型的基础上，通过与 ArcGIS 结合，实现事故海域区域范围内有害气体扩散定量可视化，实验结果表明，“桑吉”轮撞事故中，有害气体沿向下风向西北处扩散，以事故点为起点向西北方向划线为轴线，宽幅选取 4 km 范围，最高浓度区域是以事故点下风向 3 km处为圆心，500 m 为半径的圆形区域，浓度可以达到 4* 10-5 mg/m3，边缘处气体浓度已低至 0.5 * 10-5 mg/m3。其模型简单且可以直观体现有毒有害气体扩散范围。 相似文献
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基于滨海核电站海上γ辐射剂量率的智能化自动监测系统是一种无人值守的辐射监测装备,可全天候、长时间、在线组网、连续自动测量水面和空气中的γ剂量率、获取水中γ能谱数据并进行核素识别和计算活度浓度,并实时地将监测数据通过无线通信链路和北斗短报文两种形式上传至地面数据服务中心。在非事故情况下,该系统是对核电厂监督性监测系统的重要补充和完善;在发生重大核安全事故或放射性物质泄漏的情况下,能够有效解决传统的派船巡测时方法不标准、数据不及时不连续、人员受照风险大、船只易受污染和行动代价高等问题;在恶劣的极端气象条件下,无人值守的自动监测系统能够为核电站提供实时有效的水体和空气中的γ剂量率、气象、海水温度等监测数据,有效地提升了核电站在极端气象条件下的监测能力,对滨海核电站整体的安全性和可靠性具有一定积极意义。 相似文献
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K. I. Pavlov V. N. Mukhin V. G. Kamenskaya V. M. Klimenko 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2016,52(7):737-744
The investigation of female physiological reactions to different meteorological conditions and space weather is relevant, since there are little experimental findings in this field. The purpose of this work is to determine how the level of cerebral-cortex activity in women depends on the meteorological and cosmophysical parameters of weather and space processes. We studied electroencephalograms (EEGs) recorded at rest in the sitting position and with eyes closed. We performed four series of measurements of brain bioelectrical activity from February to June 2013. We found that the level of cortical activity recorded by EEG changed significantly during these 6 months. Significant differences were detected between the cortical activity and the parameters of weather and space processes; namely, an increase in the air temperature and a decrease in the wind speed and cosmic-ray energy result in a decrease in the activity rate of the right occipital lobe. 相似文献
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《Ocean Engineering》2007,34(13):1797-1810
Reliable estimation of the on-site sea state parameters is essential to decision support systems for safe navigation of ships. The wave spectrum can be estimated from procedures based on measured ship responses. The paper deals with two procedures—Bayesian Modelling and Parametric Modelling—which both use complex-valued frequency response functions (FRF) to estimate the wave spectrum. It is therefore interesting to investigate how the filtering aspect, introduced by FRF, affects the final outcome of the estimation procedures. In order to do this, extensive numerical simulations—with known wave parameters—are carried out for a large container vessel. The study shows that filtering has an influence on the estimations, since high-frequency components of the wave excitations are not estimated as accurately as lower frequency components. 相似文献
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A stochastic simulation technique was used with ship wave observations, which form the largest world-wide data base of wave information. Twenty years of wave parameter (height, period, and direction) observations from the Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) were used as the input data. Simulations were compared to four years of wave parameters from a National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) data buoy near Monterey Bay, CA. The comparisons are satisfactory with differences mainly caused by biases between ship observations and buoy data. The stochastic simulation technique is attractive because it is computationally efficient and few decisions are required for its application. The applied techniques can be employed with global COADS data to simulate wave conditions at many world-wide locations where measurements and hindcasts by computer models do not exist. 相似文献
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针对海杂波对高频地波雷达目标检测的干扰问题,分目标处于海杂波谱区之内和之外两种情况综述了海杂波背景下的目标检测方法。对于海杂波内目标检测的难题,介绍了一种基于现场海态同步观测信息的检测新思路以及初步验证结果。对国内外相关研究进展的归纳总结和新思路的提出,为提出更加有效的海杂波干扰下的目标检测方法提供了重要的参考。 相似文献
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基于自研的HUST-Ship黏性流CFD求解器,提出了一种船舶耐波性数值试验水池参数化建模方法和网格生成技术。在自研的CFD软件平台中,根据波浪参数(规则波的波长、波高和不规则波的特征周期、有效波高)自动生成船舶耐波性数值试验水池。以结构化重叠网格技术为基础,分别对船舶与水池进行网格划分并进行网格的组装、重叠,实现船舶在耐波性数值试验水池中的数值“试验”,对船舶耐波性进行数值预报。根据波浪种类分为规则波数值试验水池与不规则波数值试验水池,可对各类波浪条件实现精确可靠的数值造波,模拟船舶在各种波浪环境中运动响应、耐波性事件与非线性运动特性。采用参数化建模方法生成的耐波性数值试验水池能够提高建模和网格生成效率,通过对国际标模进行数值预报并与船模试验结果对比,验证了参数化建模方法生成的耐波性数值试验水池对船舶在波浪中运动性能的计算精度。 相似文献
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A general formulation is given of the hydrodynamic forces on a ship, oscillating about a state of rest in 6df in response to excitation by a harmonic wave in shallow water. A method is described to obtain a numerical approximation of the velocity potential, describing the flow around the moving ship by means of a distribution of discrete three-dimensional sources.With this method it is possible to take the influence of a quay into account.Calculated values of wave excited forces, hydrodynamic coefficients and motions of a 200,000 tdw tanker in shallow water are presented and compared with experimental results. 相似文献