共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 156 毫秒
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在建立海上油气设施的风险分析系统时,对由台风引发的极端海况造成的结构失效进行风险评估是1个十分重要的问题。为了建立实用可靠的风险评价方法,本文使用基于重点抽样法的随机模拟技术,对渤海海域CB12-C井组平台结构进行了全概率法失效概率计算,并在此基础上进行了平台结构的风险评价。该方法是1种适用于固定式海洋平台的定量风险评价方法,充分考虑了平台结构风险分析过程中各种不确定性的影响,极大提高了定量风险评价结果的可靠性。 相似文献
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基于模糊影响图(FPID)和失效模式与效果分析(FMEA)建立了一种海洋结构风险分析方法。鉴于风险分析中某些事件发生概率和关系概率两个重要参数确定时需借助专家主观判断,本文将模糊概率的概念引入海洋结构影响图评估方法中。该方法成功地应用到海洋平台人员伤害分析中。虽然这里仅给出了该方法在海洋平台风险评估中的应用,但其具有更广泛应用价值。 相似文献
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从数据管理及后期应用的角度提出了数据平台的要领，讨论了该数据平台的物理结构、逻辑结构，在分类与组织的基础上给出了相应的数据字典。同时，还基于该平台探讨了测井曲线库及图形库的建设方法，并实现了具体功能。 相似文献
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针对半潜式平台安装作业风险评估中存在的风险多态性和模糊性问题，构建了一种多态模糊贝叶斯网络风险分析模型。根据行业规范推荐标准定义语言性评价模糊集，描述根节点的事故状态发生概率，克服了传统方法中确定性概率难以获取的困难。利用相似性聚合法结合置信度指标融合专家意见，引入改进的去模糊化转换方法，提高了专家知识经验转化为定量数据的合理性和可靠性。基于贝叶斯网络的双向推理和敏感性分析技术，实现了工程作业全过程的风险评估。通过对陵水17-2项目半潜平台整体吊装过程进行风险分析，验证该模型的合理性与有效性，为半潜平台安装作业风险管理与防控策略制定提供指导。 相似文献
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海洋工程风险评估的现状和发展 总被引：9，自引：1，他引：8
复杂工程风险评估是近年来得到迅速发展的新的系统化的方法,本文讨论了适合于海洋工程风险评估的理论框架,涉及了动态系统风险评估和人因可靠性分析技术,为其进一步发展提出方向,文中给出了ＴＬＰ风险评估的实例。该框架同样适用于其它复杂的工程系统。 相似文献
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海洋平台油气火灾爆炸机理及其结构响应特性研究进展 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
火灾、爆炸等重大灾害条件下海洋平台结构风险评估涉及众多学科和研究领域,一直是国内外学者关注的热点问题。从试验、爆炸模型和火灾/爆炸平台结构载荷与结构响应研究等方面,综述近年来国内外在海洋平台油气火灾、爆炸机理及其作用下平台结构力学行为及响应特性研究方面的现状与最新进展,评述这些进展的科学性与局限性,指出海洋平台环境条件下火灾/爆炸机理及其对平台结构影响研究的特点以及存在的问题,并展望海洋工程重大灾害及结构风险研究领域的热点问题和发展趋势。 相似文献
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海洋工程具有很高的风险,一旦发生恶性事故,就会导致巨大的环境污染和经济损失。尤其是作为海洋石油工程生命线的海底管道,其风险应努力降至最低。然而,货物坠落等事故是不可能避免的。由于受很多不确定性因素的影响,受落物荷载作用管道保护的风险评估课题是很复杂的。文中介绍了风险评估方法。首先讨论了几种确定风险接受准则的方法,它是整个风险分析的基础。接下来从整体角度对风险评估方法进行了解释。最后结合渤海油田某平台设计中的一个工程算例,详细给出了风险评估的具体计算过程,可用此计算方法来解决渤海油田中类似的问题。 相似文献
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海岛是一种相对独立的生态系统,正因为其独立性,一旦遭到自然灾害的袭击,海岛生态系统的景观结构就会发生改变,使得景观不稳定。而景观稳定性又表现为景观的抗性和恢复力。那么海岛景观受到破坏后恢复到稳定状态的恢复力就与海岛受自然灾害潜在风险程度有关。景观越稳定,那么其受自然灾害潜在风险程度就越小,反之,景观越不稳定,其受自然灾害潜在风险程度就越大。文中分析了景观稳定性与景观异质性、景观破碎度和景观镶嵌度的关系,以及与人工景观面积大小的关系。指出了海岛景观格局与海岛风险程度的关系,提出了基于景观格局的海岛自然灾害风险评价方法,并基于景观异质性指数、景观破碎化指数、景观镶嵌度指数和人工景观面积比等指数建立了海岛自然灾害风险评价模型。以长岛南五岛中的大黑山岛、北长山岛和南长山岛为研究区域,对文中提出的相对风险评价方法进行了应用,评价结果与传统的评价结果完全一致。 相似文献
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我国现行规范体系中,关于堤防工程安全标准的确定,主要根据工程级别确定设计重现期,从而选定工程设计参数。文中提出了依据安全风险评估的结果确定海堤安全风险等级方法。首先,通过对海堤灾害进行风险识别和分析,将洪水灾害和海堤结构自身安全失效作为海堤灾害两种主要形式,建立了海堤灾害故障树。然后,将水文动力条件作为随机变量,从频率分布角度定量计算海堤洪水灾害风险程度和结构安全失效风险,提出了海堤安全风险评价方法。最后,依据规范中关于海堤等级和重现期标准的规定,结合海堤洪灾安全风险和结构自身安全风险的评价结果,确定海堤安全风险等级。文中提出的海堤安全评价技术依据海堤风险定量计算结果,从海堤现状条件满足其设计功能目标有效程度,判定海堤安全等级的级别,是一种相对较新且更科学的方法。该海堤安全风险评估技术为海堤管理和建设提供科学支撑。 相似文献
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Tarek Elsayed 《Applied Ocean Research》2009,31(3):179-185
A multiple attribute risk assessment approach using a fuzzy inference system is developed in this work. The approach is based on the use of fuzzy sets, a rule base and a fuzzy inference engine. Traditional input probabilities and consequences used in risk assessment are represented by fuzzy sets to take into account uncertainties associated with the assignment of their values. The output risk values can be presented as crisp values or fuzzy sets with associated degree of membership. The fuzzy inference system FIS is used as an alternative approach to qualitative risk matrix techniques currently used in many industries and by ship classification societies. Two approaches for fuzzy inference are adopted. These include the Mamdani approach in which output risk values are fuzzy sets and the Sugeno method of fuzzy inference, in which output risk values are constant or linear.The use of a fuzzy set approach is particularly suited for handling multiple attribute risk problems with imprecise data. It improves upon existing qualitative methods and allows the ranking of risk alternatives based on a unified fuzzy risk index measure. Results show that while the Mamdani method is intuitive and well suited to human input, the Sugeno method is computationally more efficient and guarantees continuity of the final risk output surface. Results also show that computed risk values using a fuzzy risk index measure are consistent with those obtained using a qualitative risk matrix approach. The proposed methodology is also applicable to other ship operating modes such as transit in open sea and/or entering/leaving port. A case study for a liquefied natural gas LNG ship loading/offloading at the terminal is presented to demonstrate the developed approach capability. 相似文献
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Risk Assessment of Vertical Breakwaters -A Case Study in Turkey 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
In the reliability-risk assessment, the second order reliability index (βⅡ ) method and the Conditional Expectation Monte Carlo (CEMC) simulation are interrelated as a new Level Ⅲ approach for the analysis of the safety level of the Dalaman yacht harbor vertical wall breakwater in Turkey. The missing wave data of the Dalaman measurement station are hindcasted by use of multi-layer feed-forward neural networks with the steepest descent and conjugate gradient algorithms. The structural failure probabilities of sliding and overturning failure modes are forecasted by approximation of the failure sur-face with a second-degree polynomial of an equal curvature at the design point. in the new approach, for each randomly generated load and tide combination, the joint failure probability reflects both the occurrence probability of loading condition and the structural failure risk at the limit state. The approach can be applied to risk assessment of vertical breakwaters in short CPU durations of portable comput 相似文献
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运用过程分析方法和风险评估技术,结合海洋工程项目现状,对项目承包进行风险分析。首先,运用事故树方法建立项目承包各阶段的风险事故树;然后,利用风险估计方法综合得到风险事件的评定等级;最后,给出风险控制措施。通过评估结果和建议,以降低海洋工程项目承包风险发生的可能性,减少事故损失。 相似文献
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层次分析法在项目风险管理中的应用 总被引：25，自引：0，他引：25
针对现代项目风险管理涉及面广、技术复杂的特点，介绍了层次分析法(AHP)的理论及算法，对项目风险评估中出现的多指标、多方案的综合比较与选择问题提出了1种有效的解决方法；通过示例说明了在项目风险管理中如何应用该方法及其对提高项目管理水平所具有的重要意义。 相似文献
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XIU Zongxiang LIU Baohu XIE Qiuhong LI Xishuang LIU Chenguang PEI Yanliang ZHENG Yanpeng 《海洋学报(英文版)》2013,32(4):41-48
The AHP-GDM model is used for the assessment of structural stability, with the Bohai Sea area as an example. In this model, the credit degree of each expert is calculated through the assessment matrix based on the similarity and diversity of vector. The comprehensive opinions of expert panel are quantitatively obtained by considering the effect of credit degree. According to the geological structural setting, the Bohai Sea is divided into twelve assessment zones of structural stability by non-uniform element method. The structural stability grade of each zone is obtained on the basis of the latest geophysical data, earthquake statistical data, and the information of fault activities, current stress field and crustal deformation. The results show that there are one relatively stable area, three relatively sub-stable areas, six relatively sub-unstable areas and two relatively unstable areas. The assessment results of non-uniform element method are very close with those of uniform grid method with size of 0.25° in longitude direction and 0.14° in latitude direction. However the workload of non-uniform element method is only 1/16 of the latter. Compared with traditional assessment methods of structural stability, a more objective and reliable assessment result can be obtained by combining non-uniform element method and AHP-GDM model. 相似文献
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Many studies have been carried out in the past to provide solutions to the threat of chemicals to the ecosystem. However, the basic scientific capability to predict the risk of adverse effects on the ecological system has not kept pace with society's increasing demand for uses of chemicals. As a scientific methodology for quantifying the risk to the environment associated with exposure to chemicals, ecological risk assessment is increasingly important in environmental problem solving. The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology for conducting ecological risk assessment using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. A systematic discussion on elements of ecological risk assessment is presented. A framework of ecological risk assessment is explained with the help of the Persian Gulf environmental problem as a case study. The study was based on the output of a long-range transport model of soot deposition in the Gulf. Results of the assessment using the deterministic and probabilistic approaches are discussed. 相似文献